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At least 19 records

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 8. Financial Modeling for Off-Grid Solar

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89262 for the French translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Final Report: Towards an Emergent Model of Technology Adoption for Accelerating the Diffusion of Residential Solar PV

This project sought to enable electric utilities in Texas to accelerate diffusion of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) by systematically identifying and targeting existing barriers to PV adoption. A core goal of the project was to develop an integrated research framework that combines survey research, econometric modeling, financial modeling, and implementation and evaluation of pilot projects to study the PV diffusion system. This project considered PV diffusion as an emergent system, with attention to the interactions between the constituent parts of the PV socio-technical system including: economics of individual decision-making; peer and social influences; behavioral responses; and information and transaction costs. We also conducted two pilot projects, which have yielded new insights into behavioral and informational aspects of PV adoption. Finally, this project has produced robust and generalizable results that will provide deeper insights into the technology-diffusion process that will be applicable for the design of utility programs for other technologies such as home-energy management systems and plug-in electric vehicles. When we started this project in 2013 there was little systematic research on characterizing the decision-making process of households interested in adopting PV. This project was designed to fill that research gap by analyzing the PV adoption process from the consumers' decision-making perspective and with the objective to systematically identifying and addressing the barriers that consumers face in the adoption of PV. The two key components of that decision-making process are consumers' evaluation of: (i) uncertainties and non-monetary costs associated with the technology and (ii) the direct monetary cost-benefit. This project used an integrated approach to study both the non-monetary and the monetary components of the consumer decision-making process.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 1. Basics of Electricity, Energy Access, and Off-Grid Solar

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89255 for the French translation of this document.

electricity↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 2. Key Products and Quality Assurance for Off-Grid Solar

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89256 for the French translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 4. Understanding Off-Grid Solar Customers

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89258 for the French translation of this document.

customers↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 5. Designing and Modeling Off-Grid Solar Systems

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89259 for the French translation of this document.

designing↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 6. Installation, Operations, and Maintenance of Off-Grid Solar Systems

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89260 for the French translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 7. Elements of Business Models for Off-Grid Solar

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89261 for the French translation of this document.

business↗

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-88999 for the English translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 11. Climate Adaptation and Resilience

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89265 for the French translation of this document.

adaptation↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89000 for the French translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 3. Market Potential for Off-Grid Solar in Haiti

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89257 for the French translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

First Look Fund - An Early-Stage Aligned Intermediary to Enhance the Flow of Private Capital into Energy Companies (Final Technical Report)

The technologies required to advance society into a cleaner, better future will come from a broad range of scientific disciplines including materials science, chemistry, physics, and biology. The innovations will rely on scientific breakthroughs rather than software innovation and can be referred to as “hardtech.” These new technology developments will have vast implications across most industrial sectors: energy, materials, manufacturing, electronics, life sciences, etc. The majority of these scientific breakthroughs will be produced and developed by startup companies, which are best suited for high-risk, early-stage development work. However, a large funding gap exists between lab-scale scientific research of the startup world and industrial-scale commercialization. Activate Global, Inc (Activate), a 501(c)3 nonprofit, fills one part of this gap with the Activate Fellowship program1.To fully bridge the gap between lab and market, additional and aligned capital sources are needed. Through this project, Activate’s goals were: Research the recent history (2005-2015) of hardtech investing to discover the driving forces behind positive and negative outcomes from the viewpoint of investors.; Create a database of “technology pathways” categorized by specific technology areas and showing what technology milestones would be needed to be attractive to a partner or acquirer and what resources were available to achieve those goals.; Build a financial model supported by the data acquired that would show attractive returns were possible in early-stage hardtech investing.; Create an investment thesis around the financial model to show how attractive returns could be achieved in an early-stage hardtech-focused fund.; Publish a paper with a qualitative comparative analysis to help investors better understand driving factors of outcomes.; Share these findings with asset managers not currently investing in early-stage hardtech to attract partners to execute the investment strategy.; Implement the investment strategy and begin investing in early-stage hardtech companies through a new vehicle: First Look Fund. Through this research, Activate created a database of nearly 200 hardtech companies that exited via an M&A transaction between 2005 and 2015. Much of the data Activate obtained was nonpublic information and therefore, the database was anonymized. Activate also created the technology pathways database to help new early-stage hardtech companies define milestones, technology objectives and potential resources. Activate created a financial model with a legal structure showing that market-rate returns were possible, created an investment thesis around that model, and then shared these findings with potential partners. Finally, Activate’s research was used to publish a paper with Stanford on driving factors behind financial outcomes that will help investors better guide their portfolios. While Activate was not able to launch the First Look Fund during the project timeline, mostly due to the fallout from COVID-19 (global economic shocks decreasing interest in first time funds, inability to meet potential investors in person), the research has created enough interest for Activate to continue pursuing the goals of the project, showing the potential feasibility of the endeavor. Regardless of Activate’s ability to execute on the investment strategy, the resulting research has been downloaded, viewed, and referenced by investors and becomes another tool to encourage investment in the early-stage hardtech space.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data

The solar investment community is in need of up-to-date and data-derived system degradation rates to use in financial models that calculate the risk and expectation of energy revenue. To date, financial models choose degradation rates from past studies that are limited and may not be representative of solar projects in development today. As the solar industry expands in all sectors (residential, commercial, and utility), there is a growing amount of energy generation data available to analyze. With the help of the open source degradation analysis code (RdTools) it is now possible to derive degradation on an ongoing basis and continuously provide up-to-date durability statistics to the investment community. Ongoing and accurate statistics of fielded photovoltaic systems allows financial stakeholders to constrain energy revenue projections, lower financial risk, and increase the bankability of solar. This presentation will provide a mid-term progress update on a 2 year SETO-funded degradation project that involves applying RdTools analysis on kWh Analytics’ industry database. With results from the RdTools analysis in hand, machine learning methods are employed to quantify how much variance of system performance degradation can be explained by predictor variables such as environmental factors, equipment bill of materials characteristics, and system design information. The goal of this presentation is to promote the usage of RdTools on an ongoing to data owners and to solicit feedback from researchers and stakeholders on how to maximize impact of the SETO-funded kWh Analytics degradation project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

System Advisor Model (SAM) General Description (Version 2017.9.5)

This document describes the capabilities of the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed and distributed by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The document is for potential users and others wanting to learn about the model's capabilities. SAM is a techno-economic computer model that calculates performance and financial metrics of renewable energy projects. Project developers, policy makers, equipment manufacturers, and researchers use graphs and tables of SAM results in the process of evaluating financial, technology, and incentive options for renewable energy projects. SAM simulates the performance of photovoltaic, concentrating solar power, solar water heating, wind, geothermal, biomass, and conventional power systems. The financial models are for projects that either buy and sell electricity at retail rates (residential and commercial) or sell electricity at a price determined in a power purchase agreement (PPA). SAM's simulation tools facilitate parametric and sensitivity analyses, Monte Carlo simulation and weather variability (P50/P90) studies. SAM can also read input variables from Microsoft Excel worksheets. For software developers, the SAM software development kit (SDK) makes it possible to use SAM simulation modules in their applications written in C/C plus plus, C sharp, Java, Python, MATLAB, and other languages. NREL provides both SAM and the SDK as free downloads at https://sam.nrel.gov. SAM is an open source project, so its source code is available to the public. Researchers can study the code to understand the model algorithms, and software programmers can contribute their own models and enhancements to the project. Technical support and more information about the software are available on the website.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗