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At least 19 records

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 8. Financial Modeling for Off-Grid Solar

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89262 for the French translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 1. Basics of Electricity, Energy Access, and Off-Grid Solar

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89255 for the French translation of this document.

electricity↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 2. Key Products and Quality Assurance for Off-Grid Solar

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89256 for the French translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 4. Understanding Off-Grid Solar Customers

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89258 for the French translation of this document.

customers↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 5. Designing and Modeling Off-Grid Solar Systems

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89259 for the French translation of this document.

designing↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 6. Installation, Operations, and Maintenance of Off-Grid Solar Systems

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89260 for the French translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 7. Elements of Business Models for Off-Grid Solar

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89261 for the French translation of this document.

business↗

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-88999 for the English translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 11. Climate Adaptation and Resilience

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89265 for the French translation of this document.

adaptation↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89000 for the French translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Foundations of Off-Grid Solar in Haiti: 3. Market Potential for Off-Grid Solar in Haiti

This training lends insight into key information and concepts for off-grid solar in Haiti, building foundational knowledge and an ability to catalyze interest in off-grid solar for rural electrification in Haiti. This self-paced course is offered in both English and French and covers a variety of topics related to energy access in Haiti including off-grid solar products, market potential in Haiti, supply and demand side considerations, system design, installation and maintenance, off-grid solar business models, financial modeling, gender and energy access, productive use of energy, and climate adaptation. The training is intended for university students, government partners, NGOs, funders, development partners, professionals, and more. No prior knowledge of off-grid solar or Haiti is required to benefit from this training. See NREL/PR-7A40-89257 for the French translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data

The solar investment community is in need of up-to-date and data-derived system degradation rates to use in financial models that calculate the risk and expectation of energy revenue. To date, financial models choose degradation rates from past studies that are limited and may not be representative of solar projects in development today. As the solar industry expands in all sectors (residential, commercial, and utility), there is a growing amount of energy generation data available to analyze. With the help of the open source degradation analysis code (RdTools) it is now possible to derive degradation on an ongoing basis and continuously provide up-to-date durability statistics to the investment community. Ongoing and accurate statistics of fielded photovoltaic systems allows financial stakeholders to constrain energy revenue projections, lower financial risk, and increase the bankability of solar. This presentation will provide a mid-term progress update on a 2 year SETO-funded degradation project that involves applying RdTools analysis on kWh Analytics’ industry database. With results from the RdTools analysis in hand, machine learning methods are employed to quantify how much variance of system performance degradation can be explained by predictor variables such as environmental factors, equipment bill of materials characteristics, and system design information. The goal of this presentation is to promote the usage of RdTools on an ongoing to data owners and to solicit feedback from researchers and stakeholders on how to maximize impact of the SETO-funded kWh Analytics degradation project.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Deciphering Degradation: Machine Learning on Real-World Performance Data (Final Report)

This project addresses a fundamental flaw in solar PV research and solar project financing; the assumed rate of degradation for solar plants. The solar industry currently relies on an out-dated report that observed a 0.5% degradation rate based on a small sample size of systems (~100). While the research conducted at the time was new and innovative, the solar community has not updated this research and universally applies this 0.5% degradation assumption in financial models. Our project updates this assumption by analyzing observed degradation from the industry’s largest dataset of operating solar assets (>10,000 systems) and creating the first machine-learning model based on these observed results to quantify and identify features that drive degradation. There are two strategic goals for this award: reduce the cost of capital (enable solar to attract more capital) and improve the reliability of solar itself. These dual goals are achieved by leveraging an industry dataset to observe system degradation on a large scale, deploying advanced data analysis and machine learning methods to quantify and predict system reliability, and engaging with industry stakeholders to help them accurately price degradation in financial models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Jackson County Community Solar Modeling Results [Slides]

Jackson County, via the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities LEAP (Local Energy Action Program) requested support on the topic of Community Solar in their area. NREL completed a technical and financial modeling exercise to determine the potential for developing community solar in the region. The analysis performed determined that the current policy and economic environment, in large part due to Illinois's Solar For All program, is advantageous to the deployment and growth of community solar in Illinois. Across all 6 scenarios modeled, including current minimum and maximum financial incentives, the economics yielded positive net present values for both the project owner and its subscribers. The analysis shown in this presentation is only one of the first steps in deploying community solar and suggests Jackson County should pursue next steps. Such actions could include refining project economics, partnering with local utilities, policy makers, and developers to identify potential projects and outreach opportunities, and educating and engaging community members.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advancing Concentrating Solar Thermal Modeling Using System Advisor Model (SAM)

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies play a critical role in enabling dispatchable power and high-temperature industrial heat applications. Accurate and flexible modeling tools are essential for evaluating system performance, guiding technology research and development, and informing investment decisions. The National Laboratory of the Rockies's System Advisor Model (SAM) is a widely used techno-economic simulation platform for CST systems, providing detailed performance and financial modeling capabilities for multiple CST system configurations. SAM integrates physics-based performance models with financial analysis to simulate the behavior of complex energy systems under realistic operating conditions. For CST technologies (including tower, parabolic trough, and linear Fresnel), SAM enables hourly simulations using site-specific weather data that ensure feasible operating conditions and convergence of mass and energy between core system components (i.e., solar field, receiver, thermal energy storage, and power cycle). These capabilities allow researchers and developers to evaluate annual energy production, capacity factors, levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and system dispatch strategies. A key advantage of SAM lies in its flexibility for parametric analysis and large-scale computational studies. Users can vary system design parameters such as heliostat field layout, receiver dimensions, thermal energy storage capacity, power block sizing, and installation cost assumptions to investigate their impact on system performance and financial metrics. When combined with automated scripting through LK, SDKTool, or Python interfaces, SAM enables high-throughput simulation workflows that support sensitivity analysis, technology benchmarking, and optimization studies. These approaches are particularly valuable for next-generation CST concepts, where design spaces are large and system interactions are complex. Another important capability of SAM is its support for dispatch optimization and thermal energy storage modeling, which are central to the value proposition of CST technologies. The ability to simulate integrated storage and flexible power generation allows researchers to explore strategies that maximize grid value, improve capacity utilization, and enhance integration with variable resources such as photovoltaic and wind generation. This poster will present an overview of SAM's thermal system modeling capabilities including concentrating solar. Additionally, we will highlight new feature developments including: 1) implementing Google's OR-Tools optimization platform for faster and more robust dispatch optimization, 2) developing a new power load following controller for modeling behind-the-meter applications, 3) enabling direct modeling of CSP-PV hybrid systems with the inclusion of battery storage, and 4) developing a multi-receiver falling particle Gen3 system model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗