The impact of launch vehicle reliability on the financial risks associated with multiple payload space functions.
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The X2000 Program is a technology development program that will provide next generation avionics for missions to deep space. The goal of the X2000 Program is to develop revolutionary flight and ground systems which can be replicated by missions at a low cost, affording timely new science and mission opportunities to investigators and institutions.
U.S. policies promoting applications and commercialization of space technology for the 'benefit of mankind,' and emphasis on international competitiveness, formed the basis of NASA's Mobile Satellite (MSAT) R&D and user experiments program to develop a commercial U.S. Mobile Satellite Service. Exemplifying this philosophy, the MSAT program targets the reduction of technical, regulatory, market, and financial risks that inhibit commercialization. The program strategy includes industry and user involvement in developing and demonstrating advanced technologies, regulatory advocacy, and financial incentives to industry. Approximately two decades of NASA's satellite communications development and demonstrations have contributed to the emergence of a new multi-billion dollar industry for land, aeronautical, and maritime mobile communications via satellite. NASA's R&D efforts are now evolving from the development of 'enabling' ground technologies for VHF, UHF, and L-Band mobile terminals, to Ka-Band terminals offering additional mobility and user convenience.
The amount and complexity of software developed during the last few years has increased tremendously. In particular, programs are being used more and more in embedded systems (from car-brakes to plant-control). Many of these applications are safety-relevant, i.e. a malfunction of hardware or software can cause severe damage or loss. Tremendous risks are typically present in the area of aviation, (nuclear) power plants or (chemical) plant control. Here, even small problems can lead to thousands of casualties and huge financial losses. Large financial risks also exist when computer systems are used in the area of telecommunication (telephone, electronic commerce) or space exploration. Computer applications in this area are not only subject to safety considerations, but also security issues are important. All these systems must be designed and developed to guarantee high quality with respect to safety and security. Even in an industrial setting which is (or at least should be) aware of the high requirements in Software Engineering, many incidents occur. For example, the Warshaw Airbus crash, was caused by an incomplete requirements specification. Uncontrolled reuse of an Ariane 4 software module was the reason for the Ariane 5 disaster. Some recent incidents in the telecommunication area, like illegal "cloning" of smart-cards of D2GSM handies, or the extraction of (secret) passwords from German T-online users show that also in this area serious flaws can happen. Due to the inherent complexity of computer systems, most authors claim that only a rigorous application of formal methods in all stages of the software life cycle can ensure high quality of the software and lead to real safe and secure systems. In this paper, we will have a look, in how far automated theorem proving can contribute to a more widespread application of formal methods and their tools, and what automated theorem provers (ATPs) must provide in order to be useful.
This study compares US and Korean customers in terms of their perceptions of airline service quality based on SERVPERF and industry-based measures, as well as their perceptions of risks involved in the airline choice. SERVPERF is a set of multi-dimensional measures of customer evaluations of service quality. The results indicate that: (1) US passengers are generally more satisfied with their airline service than Korean customers on most of the SERVPERF dimensions; (2) Koreans are generally more satisfied with the bumping procedures whereas US participants feel more satisfied with the airline's baggage handling, operations/safety, and connections; and (3) US participants perceive higher levels of performance and financial risks whereas Koreans feel greater social risk in choosing an airline. This study also examines the SERVPERF, industry-based measure, and perceived risk in predicting customer satisfaction with, and intention to repatronize the airline. The results suggest that US customers consider service reliability, in-flight comfort, and connections as the key factors determining satisfaction with airline service whereas Korean passengers generally regard reliability, assurance, and risk factors as predictors of satisfaction. The determining factors of customer intention to repatronize the airline are reliability and empathy for US, and reliability and overall risk for Korean customers. The study demonstrates the applicability of SERVPERF as a cross-cultural tool and indicates the importance of perceived risk in cross-cultural studies.
The need is examined for orbital flight tests of gyroscope, dewar, and other components, in order to reduce the technical and financial risk in performing the relativity experiment. A program is described that would generate engineering data to permit prediction of final performance. Two flight tests are recommended. The first flight would test a dewar smaller than that required for the final flight, but of size and form sufficient to allow extrapolation to the final design. The second flight would use the same dewar design to carry a set of three gyroscopes, which would be evaluated for spinup and drift characteristics for a period of a month or more. A proportional gas control system using boiloff helium gas from the dewar, and having the ability to prevent sloshing of liquid helium, would also be tested.
Wind tunnel tests that are conducted during the course of a typical aircraft development program are considered. The objectives of a test program are to reduce technical and financial risk and to improve product performance. Typical fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft development programs are compared. It is concluded that existing wind tunnel practice is not adequate in relation to the consequences from serious problems remaining undetected until flight test. In fact, the ultimate goal of the wind tunnel test program should leave nothing for the flight test program but the demonstration of the final product.-
This paper discusses the potential for new subsonic transport aircraft designs that may evolve in the relatively near future, taking into account the added requirements for improved environmental compatibility and the potential constraints due to system congestion, substantial financial risk, and higher fuel costs or limited availability. Reflecting these additional requirements, potential aircraft developments are presented for new CTOL transports with significantly improved fuel economy, new STOL transports with improved short field capability, and new VTOL transports that could provide direct city-center service.
This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to predict potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis.
Both the financial and quality communities rely on audits to verify customers records. The financial community is highly structured around three categories of risk, INHERENT RISK, CONTROL RISK, and DETECTION RISK. Combined, the product of these three categories constitute the AUDIT RISK. The financial community establishes CONTROL RISK based in large part on a systems level understanding of the process flow. This system level understanding is best expressed in a flowchart. The quality community may be able to adopt this structure and thereby reduce cost while maintaining and enhancing quality. The quality community should attempt to flowchart the systems level quality process before beginning substantive testing. This theory needs to be applied in several trial cases to prove or disprove this hypothesis
NASA maintains excellence in its spaceflight systems by utilizing rigorous engineering processes based on over 50 years of experience. The NASA systems engineering process for flight projects described in NPR 7120.5E was initially developed for major flight projects. The design and development of low-cost small satellite systems does not entail the financial and risk consequences traditionally associated with spaceflight projects. Consequently, an approach is offered to tailoring of the processes such that the small satellite missions will benefit from the engineering rigor without overly burdensome overhead. In this paper we will outline the approaches to tailoring the standard processes for these small missions and describe how it will be applied in a proposed small satellite mission.
The aim of this effort is to develop an integrated set of risk-based financial and technical models to evaluate multiple Off-Earth Mining (OEM) scenarios. This quantitative, scenario- and simulation-based tool will help identify combinations of market variables, technical parameters, and policy levers that will enable the expansion of the global economy into the solar system and return economic benefits. Human ventures in space are entering a new phase in which missions formerly driven by government agencies are now being replaced by those led by commercial enterprises - in launch, satellite deployment, resupply of the International Space Station, and space tourism. In the not-too-distant future, commercial opportunities will also include the mining of asteroids, the Moon, and Mars. This investigation will examine the role of OEM in a growing space economy. (In this investigation, the term 'mining' is taken to embrace minerals, ice/water, and other in situ resources.) OEM can be the engine that drives the space economy, so it would be useful to understand what OEM market conditions and technology requirements are needed for that economy to prosper. These specific elements will be studied in the wider context of creating an economy that could ultimately support a sustainable Mars Colony. Such a colony will need in situ resources not only for its own survival, but to prosper and grow, it must create viable business ventures, essentially by fulfilling the demand for in situ resources from and on Mars. This investigation will focus on understanding the role and economic prospect for OEM associated with the Human Colonization of Mars (HCM).
Over the course of the past few years, several new and innovative fully or partiailly reusable launch vehicle designs have been initiated with the objective of reducing the cost of space transportation. These new designs are in various stages hardware development for technology and system demonstrators. The larger vehicles include the Lockheed Martin X-33 technology demonstrator for VentureStar and the Space Access launcher. The smaller launcher ventures include Kelly Space and Technology and Rotary Rocket Company. A common denominator between the new large and small commercial launch systems is the ability to obtain project financing and at an affordable cost. Both are having or will have great difficulty in obtaining financing in the capital markets because of the dollar amounts and the risk involved. The large established companies are pursuing multi-billion dollar developments which are a major challenge to finance because of the size and risk of the projects. The smaller start-up companies require less capital for their smaller systems, however, their lack of corporate financial muscle and launch vehicle track record results in a major challenge to obtain financing also because of high risk. On Wall Street, new launch system financing is a question of market, technical, organizational, legal/regulatory and financial risk. The current limit of acceptable financial risk for Space businesses on Wall Street are the telecommunications and broadcast satellite projects, of which many in number are projected for the future. Tbc recent problems with Iridium market and financial performance are casting a long shadow over new satellite project financing, making it increasingly difficult for the new satellite projects to obtain needed financing.
Questions regarding the role of a mobile-satellite system in augmenting the terrestrial communications system are considered, and a market assessment study is discussed. Aspects of an investment analysis are examined, taking into account a three phase financial study of four postulated land Mobile Satellite Service (LMSS) systems, project profitability evaluation methods, risk analysis methods, financial projections, potential investor acceptance standards, and a risk analysis. It is concluded that a satellite augmented terrestrial mobile service appears to be economically and technically superior to a service depending exclusively on terrestrial systems. The interest in the Mobile Satellite Service is found to be worldwide, and the ground equipment market is potentially large.
NASA planning activities in the area of commercial development of space resources are reviewed. Examples of specific types of commercial space ventures are given, according to three different categories: new commercial high-technology ventures; new commercial application of existing space technology, and commercial ventures resulting from the transfer of existing space programs to the private sector. Basic objectives for reducing technical, financial and institutional risks for commercial space operations are considered. Attention is given to the cooperative working environment encouraged by Joint Endeavor Agreements (JEAs) and Technical Exchange Agreements (TEAs) between industrial organizations in the development of space systems. Benefits of the commercial development of space resources include the production of purer pharmaceuticals for the treatment of cancers, kidney diseases, and diabetes; and the development of ultra-pure semiconductor crystals for use in next generation electronic equipment.
In providing crew life support for future exploration missions, overall exploration objectives will drive the life support solutions selected. Crew size, mission tasking, and exploration strategy will determine the performance required from life support systems. Human performance requirements, for example, may be offset by the availability of robotic assistance. Once established, exploration requirements for life support will be weighed against the financial and technical risks of developing new technologies and systems. Other considerations will include the demands that a particular life support strategy will make on planetary surface site selection, and the availability of precursor mission data to support EVA and in situ resource recovery planning. As space exploration progresses, the diversity of life support solutions that are implemented is bound to increase.
In response to a Presidential directive, NASA has implemented a space policy which actively supports and encourages U.S. industry investment and participation in commercial space ventures. NASA's Office of Commercial Programs (OCP) has played a significant role in stimulating the growth of commercial space activity. Through a variety of programs, OCP encourages commercial interest and involvement in space endeavors by providing access to NASA resources and opportunities for the emerging space industry to reduce the technical, financial, and business risks associated with space-related activities. This manual describes NASA's Commercial Uses of Space Program and introduces participants to four major OCP Commercial programs: Technology Utilization (TU), Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR), Centers for the Commercial Development of Space Flight Agreement (CCDSFA), and Cooperative Agreements Programs. The objective of this manual is to assist U.S. industry identify and pursue the appropriate agreement for participation in a commercial space venture.
The U.S. Space Station program is described. The objectives of the present national space policy are reviewed. International involvement and commercial use of space are the two strategies involved in the development of the Space Station. The Space Station is to be a multifunctional, modular, permanent facility with manned and unmanned platforms. The functions of the Space Station for space research projects, such as material processing and electrophoresis, are examined. The infrastructure required for commercialization of space is analyzed. NASA's space policy aimed at stimulating space commerce is discussed. NASA's plans to reduce the financial, institutional, and technical risks of space research are studied.