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Results for “fingerprinting detection and attribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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11 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Characterization of Climate Change and Variability with GPS

We compared zonal mean specific humidity derived from the 21 June-4 July 1995 Global Positioning System (GPS)/MET occultation observations with that derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The GPS/MET results indicate a drier troposphere, especially near the subtropical tradewind inversion. A small, moist bias in the GPS/MET upper northern-hemisphere troposphere compared to ECMWF may be due to a small radiosonde temperature bias. A diagram shows the difference (g/kg) between the GPS/MET zonal mean specific humidity and that for June-August derived from 1963-1973 radiosondes. Although the observing period is short, GPS and ECMWF results both indicate a significantly wetter boundary layer at most latitudes consistent with decadal trends observed in radiosonde data. GPS/MET results exhibit higher tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE), suggesting a more vigorous tropical Hadley circulation. Drier, free troposphere air in the descending branches of the Hadley circulation is due in part to a moist radiosonde bias but may also reflect some negative moisture feedback. Using 1992-1997 ground GPS observations and recent advancements in GPS technology, we removed an apparent altimetric drift (-1.2 +/- 0.4 mm/yr) due to columnar water vapor from the Topography (Ocean) Experiment (TOPEX) microwave radiometer, which brought the TOPEX mean sea level change estimates into better agreement with historical tide gauge records, suggesting global mean sea level is rising at a rate of 1.5-2.0 mm/yr. We can also discern a statistically significant increase of 0.2 +/- 0.1 kg/square m/yr in mean columnar water vapor over the ocean from 1992-1997. Optimal fingerprinting can be used for the detection and attribution of tropospheric warming due to an anthropogenic greenhouse. Optimal fingerprinting distinguishes between different types of signals according to their spatial and temporal patterns, while minimizing the influence of natural climate variability. S. Leroy concludes that the signal-to-noise ratio of global warming detection increases by unity approximately every 10 years if a single oceanic region is chosen. Less time for detection is likely when many global regions are considered simultaneously. GPS occultation constellations allow the possibility of detecting small changes in upper air temperature with inconsequential calibration errors, making occultation an ideal data type for global warming detection studies. Our initial study of a 22-GHz satellite-satellite occultation system predicts upper troposphere moisture sensitivities of 3-5 ppmv and 1-2 percent in the middle and lower troposphere. Additional information contained in original.

Kursinski, R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Constraining Human Contributions to Observed Warming Since the Pre-industrial Period

Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

Attribution↗
NASA NTRS2007

Identification of Human-Induced Changes in Atmospheric Moisture Content

Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/sq m per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.

Santer, B.D.↗
NASA NTRS2015

External Influences on Modeled and Observed Cloud Trends

Understanding the cloud response to external forcing is a major challenge for climate science. This crucial goal is complicated by intermodel differences in simulating present and future cloud cover and by observational uncertainty. This is the first formal detection and attribution study of cloud changes over the satellite era. Presented herein are CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5) model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to three cloud properties: the latitudes at which the zonally averaged total cloud fraction (CLT) is maximized or minimized, the zonal average CLT at these latitudes, and the height of high clouds at these latitudes. By considering simultaneous changes in all three properties, the authors define a coherent multivariate fingerprint of cloud response to external forcing and use models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to calculate the average time to detect these changes. It is found that given perfect satellite cloud observations beginning in 1983, the models indicate that a detectable multivariate signal should have already emerged. A search is then made for signals of external forcing in two observational datasets: ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and PATMOS-x (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder Atmospheres - Extended). The datasets are both found to show a poleward migration of the zonal CLT pattern that is incompatible with forced CMIP5 models. Nevertheless, a detectable multivariate signal is predicted by models over the PATMOS-x time period and is indeed present in the dataset. Despite persistent observational uncertainties, these results present a strong case for continued efforts to improve these existing satellite observations, in addition to planning for new missions.

clouds (meteorology)↗
NASA NTRS2022

Investigating Stable Oxygen and Carbon Isotopic Variability in Speleothem Records Over the Last Millennium Using Multiple Isotope-Enabled Climate Models

The incorporation of water isotopologues into the hydrology of general circulation models (GCMs) facilitates the comparison between modeled and measured proxy data in paleoclimate archives. However, the variability and drivers of measured and modeled water isotopologues, as well as the diversity of their representation in different models, are not well constrained. Improving our understanding of this variability in past and present climates will help to better constrain future climate change projections and decrease their range of uncertainty. Speleothems are a precisely datable terrestrial paleoclimate archives and provide well-preserved (semi-)continuous multivariate isotope time series in the lower latitudes and mid-latitudes and are therefore well suited to assess climate and isotope variability on decadal and longer timescales. However, the relationships of speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopes to climate variables are influenced by site-specific parameters, and their comparison to GCMs is not always straightforward. Here we compare speleothem oxygen and carbon isotopic signatures from the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis database version 2 (SISALv2) to the output of five different water-isotope-enabled GCMs (ECHAM5-wiso, GISS-E2-R, iCESM, iHadCM3, and isoGSM) over the last millennium (850–1850 CE). We systematically evaluate differences and commonalities between the standardized model simulation outputs. The goal is to distinguish climatic drivers of variability for modeled isotopes and compare them to those of measured isotopes. We find strong regional differences in the oxygen isotope signatures between models that can partly be attributed to differences in modeled surface temperature. At low latitudes, precipitation amount is the dominant driver for stable water isotope variability; however, at cave locations the agreement between modeled temperature variability is higher than for precipitation variability. While modeled isotopic signatures at cave locations exhibited extreme events coinciding with changes in volcanic and solar forcing, such fingerprints are not apparent in the speleothem isotopes. This may be attributed to the lower temporal resolution of speleothem records compared to the events that are to be detected. Using spectral analysis, we can show that all models underestimate decadal and longer variability compared to speleothems (albeit to varying extents). We found that no model excels in all analyzed comparisons, although some perform better than the others in either mean or variability. Therefore, we advise a multi-model approach whenever comparing proxy data to modeled data. Considering karst and cave internal processes, e.g., through isotope-enabled karst models, may alter the variability in speleothem isotopes and play an important role in determining the most appropriate model. By exploring new ways of analyzing the relationship between the oxygen and carbon isotopes, their variability, and co-variability across timescales, we provide methods that may serve as a baseline for future studies with different models using, e.g., different isotopes, different climate archives, or different time periods.

isotope-enabled simulations↗
NASA NTRS2018

Corrosion of Bare Carbon Steel as a Passive Sensor to Assess Moisture Availability for Biological Activity in Atacama Desert Soils

In this work we suggest the corrosion of polished bared metal coupons as a passive sensor to detect or identify the lower limit of water availability that could be suitable for biological activity in the Atacama Desert on soil or solid substrates. For this purpose, carbon steel coupons were deposited in selected sites along a west-east transect and removed at predetermined times for morphological inspection. The advantage of this procedure is that the attributes of the oxide layer (corrosion extent, morphology and oxide phases) can be considered as a fingerprint of the atmospheric moisture history at a given time interval. Two types of coupons were used, a long rectangular shape that are half-buried in a vertical position, and square shape that are deposited on the soil surface. The morphological attributes observed by SEM inspection is correlated to the so-called humectation time which is determined from local meteorological parameters. The main result is that the decreasing trend of atmospheric moisture along the transect is closely related to corrosion behavior and water soil penetration. For instance, while in the coastal site oxide phases formed on the coupon surface rapidly evolve to well- crystallized species, in the driest inland site Lomas Bayas only amorphous oxide is observed.

Caceres, Luis↗
NASA NTRS2020

Fingerprints of External Forcing Agents on Sahel Rainfall: Aerosols, Greenhouse Gases, and Model-Observation Discrepancies

Over the 20th and 21st centuries, both anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and changes in anthropogenic aerosols have affected rainfall in the Sahel. Using multiple characteristics of Sahel precipitation, we construct a multivariate fingerprint that allows us to distinguish between the model-predicted responses to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Models project the emergence of a detectable signal of aerosol forcing in the middle of the 20th century and a detectable signal of greenhouse gas forcing at the beginning of the 21st. However, the signals of both aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in observations emerge earlier and are stronger than in the models, far stronger in the case of aerosols. The similarity between the response to aerosol forcing and the leading mode of internal variability makes it difficult to attribute this model-observation discrepancy to errors in the forcing, errors in the forced response, model inability to capture the amplitude of internal variability, or some combination of these. For greenhouse gases, however, the forced response is distinct from internal variability as estimated by models, and the observations are largely commensurate with the model projections.

Sahel↗
NASA NTRS1975

Study to define and verify the personal oral hygiene requirements for extended manned space flight: Oral physiology and microbiology in Skylab manned space missions

Methods for metabolic fingerprinting of pathogenic oral bacteria were developed and the effects of Skylab missions on salivary electrolyte levels were studied. High resolution gas liquid chromatographic (GLC) and pyrolysis-GLC procedures were used to obtain metabolic profiles of closely related bacteria associated with dental caries and periodontal disease. It was found that the GLC procedures provide a practical and reproducible means of obtaining metabolic markers for identifying closely related strains of these organisms. Fractions of stimulated whole saliva samples from the prime and back-up crews of the three Skylab missions were used to measure salivary electrolyte concentrations. All the electrolytes previously reported as having increased in urine and feces during the missions were assessed. Sodium, potassium, calcium, magnesium, phosphorous and chloride were studied. A decrease in sodium and an increase in magnesium were observed, but the mineral imbalances attributable to the mission-related increases in urinary electrolytes were not detected.

Brown, L. R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

DUst around NEarby Stars. The Survey Observational Results

Context. Debris discs are a consequence of the planet formation process and constitute the fingerprints of planetesimal systems. Their solar system counterparts are the asteroid and Edgeworth-Kuiper belts.Aims. The DUNES survey aims at detecting extra-solar analogues to the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt around solar-type stars, putting in this way the solar system into context. The survey allows us to address some questions related to the prevalence and properties of planetesimal systems.Methods. We used Herschel PACS to observe a sample of nearby FGK stars. Data at 100 and 160 micron were obtained, complemented in some cases with observations at 70 micron, and at 250, 350 and 500 micron using SPIRE. The observing strategy was to integrate as deep as possible at 100 micron to detect the stellar photosphere. Results. Debris discs have been detected at a fractional luminosity level down to several times that of the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt. The incidence rate of discs around the DUNES stars is increased from a rate of approx. 12.1% +/- 5% before Herschel to approx 20.2 % +/- % 2. A significant fraction (approx. 52%) of the discs are resolved, which represents an enormous step ahead from the previously known resolved discs. Some stars are associated with faint far-IR excesses attributed to a new class of cold discs. Although it cannot be excluded that these excesses are produced by coincidental alignment of background galaxies, statistical arguments suggest that at least some of them are true debris discs. Some discs display peculiar SEDs with spectral indexes in the 70-160 micron range steeper than the Rayleigh-Jeans one. An analysis of the debris disc parameters suggests that a decrease might exist of the mean black body radius from the F-type to the K-type stars. In addition, a weak trend is suggested for a correlation of disc sizes and an anticorrelation of disc temperatures with the stellar age.

circumstellar matter↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Change and Drought: From Past to Future

Drought is a complex and multivariate phenomenon influenced by diverse physical and biological processes. Such complexity precludes simplistic explanations of cause and effect, making investigations of climate change and drought a challenging task. Here, we review important recent advances in our understanding of drought dynamics, drawing from studies of paleoclimate, the historical record, and model simulations of the past and future. Paleoclimate studies of drought variability over the last two millennia have progressed considerably through the development of new reconstructions and analyses combining reconstructions with process-based models. This work has generated new evidence for tropical Pacific forcing of megadroughts in Southwest North America, provided additional constraints for interpreting climate change projections in poorly characterized regions like East Africa, and demonstrated the exceptional magnitude of many modern era droughts. Development of high resolution proxy networks has lagged in many regions (e.g., South America, Africa), however, and quantitative comparisons between the paleoclimate record, models, and observations remain challenging. Fingerprints of anthropogenic climate change consistent with long-term warming projections have been identified for droughts in California, the Pacific Northwest, Western North America, and the Mediterranean. In other regions (e.g., Southwest North America, Australia, Africa), however, the degree to which climate change has affected recent droughts is more uncertain. While climate change-forced declines in precipitation have been detected for the Mediterranean, in most regions, the climate change signal has manifested through warmer temperatures that have increased evaporative losses and reduced snowfall and snowpack levels, amplifying deficits in soil moisture and runoff despite uncertain precipitation changes. Over the next century, projections indicate that warming will increase drought risk and severity across much of the subtropics and mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, a consequence of regional precipitation declines and widespread warming. For many regions, however, the magnitude, robustness, and even direction of climate change-forced trends in drought depends on how drought is defined, with often large differences across indicators of precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and vegetation health. Increasing confidence in climate change projections of drought and the associated impacts will likely depend on resolving uncertainties in processes that are currently poorly constrained (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions, terrestrial vegetation) and improved consideration of the role for human policies and management in ameliorating and adapting to changes in drought risk.

Detection and attribution↗