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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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18 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Trigger Method on Fire Propagation during the Thermal Runaway Process in Li-ion Batteries

Lithium-ion batteries are prone to fire hazards due to the possibility of thermal runaway propagation. During battery product development and subsequent safety tests for design validation and safety certification, the thermal runaway onset is triggered by various test methods such as nail penetration, thermal ramp, or external short circuit. This failure initiation method affects the amount of heat contributions and the composition of gas generations. This study compares two such trigger methods, external heating and using a thermally-activated internal short circuit device (ISCD). The effects of the trigger method on total heat generation are experimentally investigated within 18650 cylindrical cells at single cell level as well as at multiple cell configuration level. The severity of failure was observed to be worse for cells with ISCDs at single cell level, whereas quite the opposite results were observed at multiple cell configuration level. A preliminary numerical analysis was performed to better understand the battery safety performance with respect to thermal runaway trigger methods and heat transfer conditions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Fire-Induced Circulations during the FireFlux2 Experiment

Despite recent advances in both coupled fire modeling and measurement techniques to sample the fire environment, the fire–atmosphere coupling mechanisms that lead to fast propagating wildfires remain poorly understood. This knowledge gap adversely affects fire management when wildland fires propagate unexpectedly rapidly and shift direction due to the fire impacts on local wind conditions. In this work, we utilized observational data from the FireFlux2 prescribed burn and numerical simulations performed with a coupled fire–atmosphere model WRF-SFIRE to assess the small-scale impacts of fire on local micrometeorology under moderate wind conditions (10–12 m/s). The FireFlux2 prescribed burn provided a comprehensive observational dataset with in situ meteorological observations as well as IR measurements of fire progression. To directly quantify the effects of fire–atmosphere interactions, two WRF-SFIRE simulations were executed. One simulation was run in a two-way coupled mode in which the heat and moisture fluxes emitted from the fire were injected into the atmosphere, and the other simulation was performed in a one-way coupled mode for which the atmosphere was not affected by the fire. The difference between these two simulations was used to analyze and quantify the fire impacts on the atmospheric circulation at different sections of the fire front. The fire-released heat fluxes resulted in vertical velocities as high as 10.8 m/s at the highest measurement level (20 m above ground level) gradually diminishing with height and dropping to 7.9 m/s at 5.77 m. The fire-induced horizontal winds indicated the strongest fire-induced flow at the lowest measurement levels (as high as 3.3 m/s) gradually decreasing to less than 1 m/s at 20 m above ground level. The analysis of the simulated flow indicates significant differences between the fire-induced circulation at the fire head and on the flanks. The fire-induced circulation was much stronger near the fire head than at the flanks, where the fire did not produce particularly strong cross-fire flow and did not significantly change the lateral fire progression. However, at the head of the fire the fire-induced winds blowing across the front were the strongest and significantly accelerated fire progression. The two-way coupled simulation including the fire-induced winds produced 36.2% faster fire propagation than the one-way coupled run, and more realistically represented the fire progression.

Benik, Jeremy T.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effects of slope steepness and cross-slope wind speed on fire spreading behavior for various vegetation

Wildland fire behavior is significantly influenced by environmental factors such as slope steepness, wind speed, and fuel type. Understanding these interactions is critical for improving predictive models and fire management. This study explores how slope steepness and cross-slope wind speed influence fire spread dynamics in various fuel bed types. Simulations are conducted using a physics-based wildland fire model, HIGRAD/FIRETEC, across six slope angles (0–50 %), four cross-slope wind speeds (4–10 m s –1 ), and three fuel bed types (grass, shrubland, and forest). Representative cases are additionally compared with FARSITE fireline evolution. Fire behavior is categorized into distinct propagation types based on spread characteristics and analyzed. The fire propagation angle, which indicates deviation from the wind direction, generally increases with steeper slopes and decreases with stronger cross-slope winds. Secondary upslope propagation is observed in shrubland under moderate slopes, while secondary downwind propagation occurs in all fuel beds at higher wind speeds. These findings highlight fire spread characteristics that differ from predictions by traditional models like Rothermel’s. By capturing complex propagation patterns and dynamics, this study demonstrates the value of a physics-based, atmosphere-fire coupled model for accurate wildland fire prediction. Incorporating secondary propagations and the influence of fuel bed complexities into predictive models can improve the accuracy of fire spread forecasts, enabling more effective fire management and risk mitigation efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A high-resolution large-eddy simulation framework for wildland fire predictions using TensorFlow

Background: Wildfires are becoming more severe, so we need improved tools to predict them over a wide range of conditions and scales. One approach towards this goal entails the use of coupled fire/atmosphere modelling tools. Although significant progress has been made in advancing their physical fidelity, existing tools have not taken full advantage of emerging programming paradigms and computing architectures to enable high-resolution wildfire simulations. Aims: The aim of this study was to present a new framework that enables landscape-scale wildfire simulations with physical representation of combustion at an affordable cost. Methods: We developed a coupled fire/atmosphere simulation framework using TensorFlow, which enables efficient and scalable computations on Tensor Processing Units. Key Results: Simulation results for a prescribed fire were compared with experimental data. Predicted fire behavior and statistical analysis for fire spread rate, scar area, and intermittency showed overall reasonable agreement. Scalability analysis was performed, showing close to linear scaling. Conclusions: While mesh refinement was shown to have less impact on global quantities, such as fire scar area and spread rate, it benefits predictions of intermittent fire behavior, buoyancy-driven dynamics, and small-scale turbulent motion. Implications: This new simulation framework is efficient in capturing both global quantities and unsteady dynamics of wildfires at high spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of flame propagation of retrofit energy efficient wall assemblies

Leveraging safety science experience and industry relationships, UL Solutions and the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) initiated a joint project in 2022 under an agreement with the US Department of Energy to evaluate the flame propagation of retrofit energy efficient wall assemblies. A draft of the protocol from the ASTM work was used to test and comparatively study various retrofit energy efficient designs to gain a better understanding of their fire behavior. The goals of this study were as follows: Develop an understanding of fire propagation across new, cost effective, and energy efficient exterior retrofit wall assemblies. Refine the flame propagation draft test method for exterior wall assemblies based on ASTM E2707. Identify conditions that create fire propagation hazards in exterior wall assemblies and educate the fire service on the findings.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring thermal runaway propagation in Li-ion batteries through high-speed X-ray imaging and thermal analysis: Impact of cell chemistry and electrical connections

Battery safety design is important to consider from the individual Li-ion cell to the level of the macro-system. On the macro-level, failure in one single cell can lead to propagation of the thermal runaway and rapidly set a whole battery pack on fire. Factors that can impact the propagation outcome, such as cell model/chemistry and electrical connection are here investigated using a combination of measurements. Several abusive tests were conducted, combining two different cell models (Molicel P42A and LG M50, both 21700s) in series and parallel connections (16 tests per configuration). Overall, a propagation outcome of 56% was measured from the 32 conducted tests, a minimum temperature of 150 °C was required to initiate propagation, and the fastest propagation occurred in 123 s. Temperature measurements were higher in series connected cells, initiating the discussion of cell chemistry and internal resistance on this effect. The difference in current-flow during thermal runaway in series and parallel connections, and how this can affect the temperature evolution is further discussed. Spatio-temporal mapping of X-ray radiography allowed us to derive the speed of thermal runaway evolution inside the battery and has shown that series connected cells, in particular P42A, occur faster. It was further observed that deviant sidewall behaviors such as temperature-induced breaches and pressure-induced ruptures occurred in P42As only respective nail-penetrated cells only.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Recurrent Convolutional Deep Neural Networks for Modeling Time-Resolved Wildfire Spread Behavior

The increasing incidence and severity of wildfires underscores the necessity of accurately predicting their behavior. While high-fidelity models derived from first principles offer physical accuracy, they are too computationally expensive for use in real-time fire response. Low-fidelity models sacrifice some physical accuracy and generalizability via the integration of empirical measurements, but enable real-time simulations for operational use in fire response. Machine learning techniques have demonstrated the ability to bridge these objectives by learning first-principles physics while achieving computational speedups. While deep learning approaches have demonstrated the ability to predict wildfire propagation over large time periods, time-resolved fire-spread predictions are needed for active fire management. Here, in this work, we evaluate the ability of deep learning approaches in accurately modeling the time-resolved dynamics of wildfires. We use an autoregressive process in which a convolutional recurrent deep learning model makes predictions that propagate a wildfire over 15 min increments. We apply the model to four simulated datasets of increasing complexity, containing both field fires with homogeneous fuel distribution as well as real-world topologies sampled from the California region of the United States. We show that even after 100 autoregressive predictions representing more than 24 h of simulated fire spread, the resulting models generate stable and realistic propagation dynamics, achieving a Jaccard score between 0.89 and 0.94 when predicting the resulting fire scar. The inference time of the deep learning models are examined and compared, and directions for future work are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shape Anisotropy-Dependent Leaking in Magnetic Neurons for Bio-Mimetic Neuromorphic Computing

Spiking neural networks seek to emulate biological computation through interconnected artificial neuron and synapse devices. Spintronic neurons can leverage magnetization physics to mimic biological neuron functions, such as integration tied to magnetic domain wall (DW) propagation in a patterned nanotrack and firing tied to the resistance change of a magnetic tunnel junction (MTJ), captured in the domain wall-magnetic tunnel junction (DW-MTJ) device. Leaking, relaxation of a neuron when it is not under stimulation, is also predicted to be implemented based on DW drift as a DW relaxes to a low energy position, but it has not been well explored or demonstrated in device prototypes. Here, in this work, we study DW-MTJ artificial neurons capable of leaky integrate-and-fire (LIF) behavior and demonstrate geometry-dependent leaking dynamics that results in repeatable, tunable LIF operation. Studying the behavior of five different device designs, we show tuning the geometry, stimulating fields and currents, and location of electrical contacts results in a wide range of neuron behavior. Additionally, implementation of an asymmetric notch allows for nonlinear pinning which increased expressivity without sacrificing leaking. The measured behavior is implemented in a simulated spiking neural network that outperforms a 1D model of continuous DW motion and approaches the performance of an ideal LIF activation function. The results show that the analog LIF capability of DW-MTJ neurons combines many desirable neuron functions into a single device, which can result in varied forms of multifunctional neuromorphic computing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultrasonic Measurements of Temperature Profile and Heat Fluxes in Coal-Fired Power Plants (Final Report)

Many industrial processes are inaccessible or inhospitable to characterization by traditional temperature measurement methods, such as thermocouples, especially over prolonged exposure to harsh environments. Ultrasound is an established characterization technology with diverse applications ranging from medical imaging to therapies to flaw detection to nondestructive evaluation. Ultrasound may characterize solid materials and components noninvasively as a nondestructive evaluation modality and obtain internal measurements of material properties. For example, the speed of ultrasound propagation changes with Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio, which can be found from its measurements. Traditional ultrasonic characterization assumes all material properties remain constant with the position. When this assumption holds, a property of interest may be measured by relating it to the speed of ultrasound propagation (or a speed of sound, SOS) and measuring the SOS by timing the ultrasound propagation through a known distance. However, when a property of interest is spatially distributed, the propagation time depends on the SOS changing with the position along the ultrasound propagation path. The multiple temperature distributions may lead to an identical time of flight (TOF). Temperature is one property that impacts the speed of ultrasound and often cannot be assumed to remain constant with the position. Previously, in the context of temperature, we addressed the challenge of ultrasonic characterization of spatially distributed properties by developing a method for measuring segmental temperature distributions (MSTD). This method divides the ultrasonic propagation into segments bound by echogenic features. These features provide ultrasonic interfaces where some energy is reflected toward the receiving transducer, and the rest continues through the medium. The time-of-flight between the echoes reflected from echogenic features characterizes the spatial distribution in the properties of interest in the corresponding segment of the ultrasonic propagation path. This project demonstrated the application of the MSTD method in industrial conditions of the coal-fired power plant. We implemented the MSTD using metals and alloys waveguides, which may be the existing structure for which the temperature distribution is characterized or purposefully designed waveguides added to the structure by welding or other means specifically to quantify thermal properties using the MSTD method. Previous iterations of the MSTD method used ceramic and cementitious waveguides, which significantly attenuate ultrasound. On the other hand, low attenuation in metallic waveguides creates interactions between echogenic features which compilates the signal analysis in the segmental TOF measurements. We have established the WG design principles that minimize the interferences between trailing and primary echoes and, in some cases, eliminate them. The waveguides in which echoes do not interfere improve the timing accuracy and the robustness of ultrasonic measurements of the spatial distributions in material properties. Our emphasis remained on the estimation of the temperature distributions. We have developed general recommendations for designing ultrasonically segmented waveguides with the reduced influence of trailing echoes. Two of our waveguide designs were tested in the industry. The first waveguide was designed for insertion into a combustion zone of the utility-scale coal-fired power plant boiler. The second design allows the characterization of temperature distribution in the direction normal to the boiler’s water wall, a large heat exchanger converting the chemical energy released during combustion to the steam driving the electrical power generation turbines. These waveguides were designed to operate within a restrictive space of thermally insulated water wall and incorporate densely located echogenic features while combatting the influence of trailing echoes. The project has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of using the developed method for accurate, continuous, and robust temperature measurements in extreme environments of power generation and other industrial processes. It, therefore, has achieved its overarching goal of advancing the technology readiness level of the novel Ultrasound Measurements of Segmental Temperature Distribution (US-MSTD) method for real-time measurements of the temperature distribution and heat fluxes closer to commercial availability, developing a prototype multipoint measurement system, and validating its performance on coal-fired utility boilers. The success of this project was achieved in collaboration with the power generator, Rocky Mountain Power, and set the stage for the transfer of this technology from the laboratory to the industry.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Safe Response to Renewable Energy Hazards

The International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) and Underwriters Laboratories, LLC (UL) in conjunction with UL Solutions initiated a joint project in 2022 under an agreement with the United States Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (DOE-EERE). This project focused on two separate and important initiatives related to energy efficiency in residential buildings. Initiative 1: Fire Performance on Energy Efficient Exterior Walls. Initiative 2: Firefighting Tactics in Residential Properties with Building Energy Storage Systems (BESS). The project’s first initiative addresses concerns surrounding new technologies with enhanced, energy-efficient exterior walls installed on residential properties. The concerns of fire rapidly traveling vertically up the exterior of these walls were examined. This addressed a growing concern from the first responder community that many times, the fires on the exterior of residential buildings have already evolved into an attic fire by the time of arrival – making it problematic to address the fire scenario. The test plan for Initiative 1 incorporated a modified version of an American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) test method, ASTM E2707, Standard Test Method for Determining Fire Penetration of Exterior Wall Assemblies Using a Direct Flame Impingement Exposure, as the foundation of the research. The test method involved a wall structure intended to represent retrofit construction to evaluate how fire would spread vertically or laterally. The second aspect of the UL-IAFF Project focuses on the fire service response to Residential Battery Energy Storage System (RBESS) incidents. These simulation tests were constructed in the large-scale fire test facility at UL Solutions’ Northbrook, IL campus. A baseline test was conducted that involved a test structure with no batteries—shelving units populated with standardized commodities, representing a typical garage with cellulosic and plastic contents. Three additional tests have been conducted to generate data with the contribution of energy storage system (ESS) batteries to compare fire and explosion hazards against the baseline test. Through this work, fire service tactical considerations can be explored. From the data, the team can determine 1) the visual indicators of a residential fire that has involved an RBESS (or, potentially, other large batteries) and 2) the impact of fire service-initiated ventilation of the structure on the fire conditions and explosion risks.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of radiation heat loss on planar and spherical hydrofluorocarbon/air flames

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), which are mildly flammable and pose potential fire risks, have received greater attention as a viable low global warming potential alternative to traditional refrigerant and fire-suppressant compounds. Therefore, there is a demand to accurately quantify their flammability and re-activity to establish proper safety metrics. Here, this study investigates the effects of radiation heat loss on slowly-propagating HFC/air laminar flames. Planar 1-D simulations of R-32/air and R-1234yf/air flames show significant reductions in laminar flame speed due to radiative heat losses from the flame zone. Simulations of spherically expanding flames (SEF) revealed that the radiation-induced flow needs to be considered when interpreting data from experiments. To this end, a Spherical-flame RADiation-Induced Flow (SRADIF) model was developed to estimate the burned gas inward flow velocities in constant-pressure SEFs, utilizing the optically thin limit assumption to model radiation heat loss. The model was validated against results from detailed numerical simulations of SEFs, from which radiation-induced inward flow was derived using a new formulation considering both the radiation heat loss and convective flow effects. Results show that SRADIF accurately predicts the inward flow velocity for R-32/air mixtures over a range of conditions and performs significantly better compared to existing analytical models. However, the model was unable to accurately predict flow velocities for R-1234yf/air flames and the reason for this is discussed. (224 words)

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation on the explosion dynamics of large-format lithium-ion pouch cells

Explosion is the most extreme case of thermal runaway of lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. In this study, explosion dynamics of large-format Li-ion cells are investigated experimentally and numerically. Overcharge-to-explosion tests are conducted on 40 Ah Li-ion cells with Li[Ni 0.8 Co 0.1 Mn 0.1 ]O 2 cathode. Based on the explosion physics, shockwave and detonation models are used to characterize the shock effect of the cell explosion and evaluate the explosion equivalent. Von Neumann peak is observed on the pressure curves, and the shockwave velocity is supersonic at this time; the unwrinkled spherical flame phenomenon observed in the experiment indicates that it is detonation. Additionally, a geometric model is established based on the real testing scenario, and the explosion behavior is numerically studied. The characteristics of the explosion dynamics process are interpreted and the propagation mechanism of the shockwave are revealed; the deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) phenomenon in this process is caused by the formation of “hot spots”, and the explosion of the cells eventually turns into stable combustion. Here this study fills the gap in the research on thermal runaway of Li-ion cells, especially in the extreme cases of fire and explosion, and provide useful guidance for battery safety.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultrasonic measurement of temperature distributions in extreme environments: Electrical power plants testing in utility-scale steam generators

Thermal heterogeneities within energy conversion and storage, material processing, nuclear processes, aerospace, and military applications are often inaccessible to characterization by insertion sensors. When sensor deployment is possible, conventional pointwise temperature probes quickly degrade when inserted into harsh environments typical of such processes. We developed spatially-resolved ultrasonic thermometry to noninvasively measure the spatial distributions of thermal properties in such applications, even when sizable thermal gradients are present. Our method divides the path of ultrasonic propagation into segments bound by echogenic features, which create echoes in pulse-echo mode, encoding the information about interior temperature distributions. We use the acquired ultrasonic responses to estimate the internal temperature distributions by solving an inverse problem or concatenating segmental estimates. This work describes the implementation and industrial testing of the developed method at a coal-fired electrical power generation plant. We inserted an echogenically segmented Inconel 625 waveguide into the combustion zone of the utility-scale boiler and continuously acquired ultrasonic data while keeping sensitive components away from the damaging combustion environment. The accuracy of the time-dependent temperature distributions reconstructed from the ultrasonic measurements was comparable to that of thermocouples. The resiliency of ultrasonic thermometry to harsh combustion conditions was far superior to conventional insertion sensors. The measurements obtained during plant operation captured daily steam generation cycles in response to changing customer demand and intermittent contributions of renewable power sources to the power grid. These measurements have revealed new insights into the relationship between the dynamic power generation load and the conditions inside the steam generator. As a result, the successful industrial testing of spatially-resolved ultrasonic thermometry in solids indicates that the developed technology has matured to become an attractive alternative to conventional sensing in solving challenging problems of long-term thermal characterizations in extreme environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Examination of entrainment, combustibility, and heat transfer due to cell venting inside simplified battery energy storage enclosures

Battery energy storage systems (ESS) assembled of modules containing lithium-ion batteries can pose fire and explosion hazards during thermal runaway because vented gases may accumulate, combust, or escape enclosures. Here, we propose a prototypical configuration composed of the main components of an ESS rack, where modules are represented as rectangles within an enclosure and vent gas is injected steadily through the top of a module. This idealized geometry allows for exploration of how rack-level characteristics can influence smaller single-cell or module-level scales. Through this geometry, we conduct numerical simulations to understand how variations in the vent velocity, temperature, and vertical location affect entrainment rates, fraction of uncombusted fuel, rich-gas coverage, and heat flux to other modules. At lower vent velocities and vertical positions, buoyancy drives enough entrainment and mixing to react with most of the vent gases on the converging plenum. As jet momentum increases and/or buoyancy decreases via higher vent position in the rack, vent gases can propagate into and burn in the divergence plenum. Heat flux to the impinged module scales strongly with vent momentum and temperature, while heat transfer to upper modules peaks when flames in the diverging plenum reach the surface and declines when combustion is suppressed.

Computational fluid dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Invasive Plant Species Management Plan for Los Alamos National Laboratory (Rev.3)

Native species are plants and animals that continually occupy a natural range without direct or indirect introduction and/or care by humans. They are adapted to the environmental conditions and processes of the ecosystem in which they reside. A species introduced into a novel ecosystem can either exploit that ecosystem and thrive or be unable to survive in that ecosystem (Hobbs et al. 2006). Alien or non-native species are species that are intentionally or accidentally introduced into a novel ecosystem and are capable of living and propagating within the physical parameters of that ecosystem. Invasive species is a species that is non-native (or alien) to the ecosystem under consideration and a noxious species are those whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm. The term invasive species is applicable to plants and animals alike; however, this invasive species management plan currently focuses on invasive vegetation. Invasive plant species are usually capable of rapid colonization of disturbed ground, such as after a change in wildfire regime intensity and frequency (Reilly et al. 2020) or anthropogenic ground disturbance (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992). Climate change facilitates the spread and establishment of many alien species and creates new opportunities for them to become invasive (Turbelin and Catford 2021). As climate change impacts increase in the coming decades, we may see in an increase in invasive species establishment. See a list of definitions of terms pertinent to this document in Appendix A: Definitions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) hosts populations of non-native and invasive species all typical of the northern New Mexico region (Martin 2004; NMDA 2020). By implementing an invasive species management plan, LANL will have readily accessible management strategies for invasive species that are found on-site. The benefits of managing invasive species include a decrease in wildland fire risks, an increase in soil productivity, an increase in (productive or beneficial) wildlife habitat, an increase in water quantity and quality, and the restoration of impacted areas (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992; D’Antonio and Hobbie 2005; MacDougall et al. 2013; Reilly et al. 2020). The aforementioned benefits from invasive species management directly enable the LANL mission by ensuring compliance requirements are met and site-wide programs, such as the Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan, are supported for a mutually beneficial outcome. An example for the LANL site specifically, controlling non-native annual plant species, for example, could reduce the costs associated with stabilizing soils during the stormwater pollution prevention compliance process. Roadway and utility right-of-way areas are another place where an integrated vegetation management strategy would promote low growing perennial plants in a way that is mutually beneficial to habitat and the institution through lowered maintenance costs. There is also an economic benefit to managing invasive species. In one nationwide study, invasive plants had an estimated impact cost of $190.45 billion (Fantel-Lepczyk et al. 2022). Investing in preventative measures and surveillance could help to offset future control and management costs of invasive species that have the potential to become established. The State of New Mexico has developed plant species lists and recommendations through the New Mexico Department of Agriculture’s Noxious Weeds Management Act, Article 7D (NM Statute § 76-7D-4 2021); however, effective invasive species management must rely on local knowledge of the site and region. Los Alamos County (LAC) has already compiled a target invasive plant species list and species-specific management objectives (Martin 2004). Therefore, the New Mexico Noxious Weed List and the LAC invasive plant species list, as well as management objectives from those documents, are integrated into LANL’s invasive plant species management plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗