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Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations.

Hazard assessment↗

Material tradeoffs to minimize flooding reactivity

In the GE 100 KWe SP-100 design, the array of fuel pins in the core was surrounded by a thin neutron barrier made of a mixture of Nb-1 percent Zr and 20 percent B4C. The purpose of this barrier was to prevent the return to the reactor of thermalized neutrons in the event of a reactor flooding accident. Neutronically, the barrier produced a reduction in k sub eff of 15 percent. However, a mixture of Nb-1 percent Zr and B4C is a development item and may not be possible to produce. Several alternatives to this design were investigated. These include the use of W-26 percent Re for the fuel barrier and the introduction of fuel pin ducts made of Ta-8 percent W-2 percent Hf, Hf-10 percent Nb or pure Re. The use of W-26 percent Re for the fuel barrier material in place of W, and the use of T111, Hf-10 percent Nb, or Re duct material in place of Nb-1 percent Zr or Nb-1 percent Zr-20 percent B4C were found to substantially decrease k sub eff in the flooding situation. The best choice neutronically for duct material is Hf-10 percent Nb, because of its small impact on the k sub eff of the normal core.

Protsik, R.↗

Recent Changes in High-Latitude Glaciers, Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets

The glaciers and ice sheets of the world contain enough ice to raise sea level by approximately 70 meters if they were to disappear entirely, and most of this ice is located in the climatically sensitive polar regions. Fortunately changes of this magnitude would probably take many thousands of years to occur, but recent discoveries indicate that these ice masses are responding to changes in today s climate more rapidly than previously thought. These responses are likely to be of great societal significance, primarily in terms of their implications for sea level, but also in terms of how their discharge of freshwater, through melting or calving, may impact ocean circulation. For millions of years, oceans have risen and fallen as the Earth has warmed and cooled, and ice on land has shrunk and grown. Today is no different in that respect, as sea levels have been rising at a rate of nearly 2 m per year during the last century (Miller and Douglas 2004), and 3 mm/yr in the last 12 years (Leuliette et al. 2004). What is different today, however, is that tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions of people live in coastal areas that are vulnerable to changes in sea level. Rising seas erode beaches, increase flood potential, and reduce the ability of barrier islands and coastal wetlands to mitigate the effects of major storms and hurricanes. The costs associated with a one-meter rise in sea level are estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars in the United States alone. The worldwide costs in human terms would be far greater as some vulnerable low-lying coastal regions would become inundated, especially in poorer nations that do not have the resources to deal with such changes. Such considerations are particularly important in light of the fact that a one meter sea level rise is not significantly outside the 0.09 to 0.88 range of predictions for this century (IPCC 2001), and rises of this magnitude have occurred in the past in as little as 20 years (Fairbanks 1989). While the expansion of the warming oceans is estimated to be about a third of recent sea level rise, (Miller and Douglas 2004) the greatest potential for significantly increasing sea level lies in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. For different reasons, each exhibits characteristics that suggest they are potentially unstable. In Antarctica, large portions of the ice cover rest on a soft bed that lies below sea level, making it vulnerable to runaway retreat. The Greenland ice sheet experiences considerable melt, which has the potential to rapidly accelerate the flow of ice toward the sea. While smaller ice masses, such as the Alaskan Glaciers and the Canadian ice caps, do not have anywhere near the same potential to impact sea level as the vast ice sheets do, many are melting rapidly, posing a significant near-term threat.

Abdalati, Waleed↗

Use of Windbreaks for Hurricane Protection of Critical Facilities

The protection of NASA Langley Research Center from future hurricanes is important in order to allow the center to fulfill its mission. The impact of the center is not only great within NASA but the economy as well. The infrastructure of the Center is under potential risk in the future because of more intense hurricanes with higher speed winds and flooding. A potential method of protecting the Center s facilities is the placement of a windbreak barrier composed of indigenous trees. The New Town program that is now in progress creates a more condensed area of focus for protection. A potential design for an efficient tree windbreak barrier for Langley Research center is proposed.

Hyater-Adams, Sinone↗

STOVL Hot Gas Ingestion control technology

A comprehensive wind tunnel test program was conducted to evaluate control of Hot Gas Ingestion (HGI) on a 9.2 percent scale model of the McDonnell Aircraft Company model 279-3C advanced Short Takeoff and Vertical Landing (STOVL) configuration. The test was conducted in the NASA-Lewis Research Center 9 ft by 15 ft Low Speed Wind Tunnel during the summer of 1987. Initial tests defined baseline HGI levels as determined by engine face temperature rise and temperature distortion. Subsequent testing was conducted to evaluate HGI control parametrically using Lift Improvement Devices (LIDs), forward nozzle splay angle, a combination of LIDs and forward nozzle splay angle, and main inlet blocking. The results from this test program demonstrate that HGI can be effectively controlled and that HGI is not a barrier to STOVL aircraft development.

Amuedo, K. C.↗

Thermal and hydraulic considerations regarding the fate of water discharged by the outflow channels to the Martian northern plains

The identification of possible shorelines in the Martian northern plains suggests that the water discharged by the circum-Chryse outflow channels may have led to the formation of transient seas, or possibly even an ocean, covering as much as one-third of the planet. Speculations regarding the possible fate of this water have included local ponding and reinfiltration into the crust; freezing, sublimation, and eventual cold-trapping at higher latitudes; or the in situ survival of this now frozen water to the present day -- perhaps aided by burial beneath a protective cover of eolian sediment or lavas. Although neither cold-trapping at higher latitudes nor the subsequent freezing and burial of flood waters can be ruled out, thermal and hydraulic considerations effectively eliminate the possibility that any significant reassimilation of this water by local infiltration has occurred given climatic conditions resembling those of today. The arguments against the local infiltration of flood water into the northern plains are two-fold. First, given the climatic and geothermal conditions that are thought to have prevailed on Mars during the Late Hesperian (the period of peak outflow channel activity in the northern plains), the thickness of the cryosphere in Chryse Planitia is likely to have exceeded 1 km. A necessary precondition for the widespread occurrence of groundwater is that the thermodynamic sink represented by the cryosphere must already be saturated with ice. For this reason, the ice-saturated cryosphere acts as an impermeable barrier that effectively precludes the local resupply of subpermafrost groundwater by the infiltration of water discharged to the surface by catastraphic floods. Note that the problem of local infiltration is not significantly improved even if the cryosphere were initially dry, for as water attempts to infiltrate the cold, dry crust, it will quickly freeze, creating a seal that prevents any further infiltration from the ponded water above. The second argument against the local infiltration of flood water in the northern plains is based on hydraulic considerations. Repeated impacts have likely brecciated the Martian crust down to a depth of roughly 10 km. Given a value of permeability no greater than that inferred for the top 10 km of the Earth's crust (approximately 10(exp -2) darcies), a timescale as much as a billion years or more for the Martian groundwater system to achieve hydrostatic equilibrium, and the approximately 2-4 km elevation difference between the outflow channel source regions and the northern plains, the water confined beneath the frozen crust of the northern plains should have been under a significant hydraulic head. Thus, the existence of a hydraulic pathway between the ponded flood waters above the northern plains and the confined aquifer lying beneath it would not have led to the infiltration of flood water back into the crust, but rather the additional expulsion of groundwater onto the surface.

Clifford, S. M.↗

Hydrology team

General problems faced by hydrologists when using historical records, real time data, statistical analysis, and system simulation in providing quantitative information on the temporal and spatial distribution of water are related to the limitations of these data. Major problem areas requiring multispectral imaging-based research to improve hydrology models involve: evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture dynamics for large areas; the three dimensional characteristics of bodies of water; flooding in wetlands; snow water equivalents; runoff and sediment yield from ungaged watersheds; storm rainfall; fluorescence and polarization of water and its contained substances; discriminating between sediment and chlorophyll in water; role of barrier island dynamics in coastal zone processes; the relationship between remotely measured surface roughness and hydraulic roughness of land surfaces and stream networks; and modeling the runoff process.

Ragan, R.↗

Trends in Barrier Island Geomorphology Under Continuous Sea Level Rise: Padre Island from 1940-2020

Barrier islands serve an important role in shielding coastal areas from storm surges and wave erosion. Monitoring changes in a barrier island system helps determine the combined effect of sediment supply, aeolian sand transport, storms and sea level rise (SLR) on long-term island survival. Here we present and discuss changes to the southern end of Padre Island (TX),including a back-barrier active dune field, across 7 decades from 1941 - 2020. We have used aerial photos, satellite imagery, and field monitoring to map the decadal and seasonal geomorphological changes. We produced facies maps for each decade from 1970 to present, complemented with qualitative observations for 1941-1970, when aerial imagery was incomplete. We also used supervised classification to monitor monthly changes in the availability of sand for aeolian transport over a full seasonal cycle, to determine the role of the fluctuating water table on the sand budget of the active dune field. Results indicate that the southern end of Padre Island experienced significant change over the study period, transitioning from unvegetated dune fields and sand flats to expansive vegetated dunes, a tidal flat with microbial mats and a shrinking active dune field. Vegetated dunes, absent in 1970, now cover 14% of the study area. The active dune field shrunk from 12%coverage to 6%, with sand available for transport varying from 3% to 21% as the water table fluctuates throughout the year. The infrequently flooded back-island sand flat covering 40% of the study area has transitioned to a lower-lying tidal flat. Furthermore, extensive microbial mats and crusts have developed within the wind-tidal flat, in washover fans, and in low-lying interdune areas. All these early signs are consistent with a progressive drowning of the barrier island, an event we hypothesize was triggered by the sudden spread of vegetation along the back-beach dunes. Plant colonization then cut off sand supply from the beach to the back-barrier, and thus access to the primary source of sand to the system. Our findings highlight the contradictory role of vegetation in barrier islands, as they stabilize dunes and promote sand accretion at the back-beach, while also isolating the back-barrier from aeolian sediment sources, thus amplifying the effects of sea level rise in the absence of salt marshes and/or mangrove platforms.

K R Fisher↗

Decadal and seasonal changes in barrier island geomorphology at Padre Island from 1950-2020

Barrier islands serve an important role in shielding coastal areas from storm surges and wave erosion. Monitoring changes in a barrier island system helps determine the effect of storms and sea level rise (SLR) on island stability. Changes in geomorphic facies on the islands may be indicators of an island shifting out of an equilibrium state. Here, we used aerial and satellite images of Padre Island, Texas near Mansfield Pass, to map the decadal and seasonal geomorphological changes from 1970-2020. Inspection of the images reveals that this area experienced significant change over the past five decades, transitioning from unvegetated dune fields and sand flats to expansive vegetated dunes and a tidal flat with microbial mats. Vegetated dunes, absent in 1970, now cover 14% of the study area. The active dune field shrunk from 12% coverage to 6%. The infrequently flooded back-island sand flat covering 40% of the study area has transitioned to a lower-lying tidal flat. Extensive microbial mats and crusts have developed within the wind-tidal flat, in washover fans, and in low-lying interdune areas. Possible triggers for the transition from active sand dune fields to microbial mats and vegetation may be modifications to the island topography post-hurricane Allen in 1980 and a sea-level driven water table rise. The local sea level has risen 16 cm over the study period. Monthly mapping over a full year demonstrated the strong influence the seasonal water cycle has on the back-island facies. Aeolian transport plays a primary role in the back-island geomorphology, however the availability of sand for transport is highly variable from month to month as the surface fluctuates in and out of the capillary fringe. The increasing prevalence of water table-driven facies changes leads to the conclusion that back-barrier accretion is not keeping pace with relative SLR. These facies changes may be the first signs of a degrading microtidal barrier island.

K.R. Fisher↗

Electron tunneling as a basis for semiconduction in proteins

Electron tunneling is investigated as a possible mechanism for the conduction of electrical current in solids composed of protein molecules. An intermolecular potential barrier is assumed which takes into account the applied electric field and the possibility of image charge effects. The WKB approximation is used to calculate the net tunneling current density and resulting conductivity. The results suggest that electron tunneling per se is not a suitable mechanism for explaining the observed conductivities in such materials.

Flax, L.↗

Remote sensing in Michigan for land resource management: Waterfowl habitat management at Pointe Mouillee

For many years the Pointe Mouillee State Game Area, located on the Lake Erie shoreline just south of Detroit, has been a prime waterfowl habitat. The usefulness of the site for this purpose has been impaired because of the gradual deterioration of the marshland and severe flooding and storms during the spring of 1973. Also, it has been proposed that a dredge spoils area be located in or near the marsh. To aid the future management of a diked refuge area of 148 hectares within the State Game Area, a detailed vegetation inventory was prepared by photointerpretation and a generalized vegetation inventory was obtained by processing multispectral scanner imagery. Also, an analysis was conducted to determine the magnitude of past losses of marshland and the possibilities of replacing this lost habitat. The analysis indicated that large additions to waterfowl habitat could be provided by changes in management of vegetation in existing sections of the State Game Area, through acquisition and conversion of adjacent land by the Michigan Department of Natural Resources, and by the proposed construction of a barrier dike offshore of Pointe Mouillee. Altogether, the various measures considered in this report could affect a total area of nearly 13 sq. km.

Sellman, A. N.↗

VISUALIZING INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL COASTAL VARIABILITY NEAR VULNERABLE NASA INFRASTRUCTURE UTILIZING VIDEOS PRODUCED FROM REMOTELY SENSED DATA AT CAPE CANAVERAL, FL AND WALLOPS ISLAND, VA

Coastlines represent an interesting convolution of intense anthropogenic development superimposed onto morphologies that are among the most dynamic on the planet. Two of NASA’s critical facilities are particularly vulnerable to coastal change, Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral, FL and Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, VA. With continuing global sea level rise and increasing storminess coastal vulnerabilities at these facilities will only be exacerbated. These launch centers a subject to multiple coastal hazards including, flooding, episodic coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and coastal morphological changes. Although rapid change is readily observed during large storms or hurricanes, long term annual to decadal coastal change is much harder to visualize and conceptualize. The authors use videos developed from remotely sensed data to enhance conceptualization of coastal processes for planning and management stakeholders at these NASA facilities. Near or better than decadal coastal imagery has been available through high altitude photogrammetry efforts since the 1930’s. A significant amount of additional imagery was acquired through other federal, state, and local government agencies such as the USGS, NOAA, State DOT, and local Assessors Offices providing annual and inter annual images at spatial resolutions of 10cm – 1m. With the advent of GIS systems these images could be rectified and then layered to better understand change through time using a multitude of visual base shoreline proxies. With the increased awareness and use of video editing software the rectified images can be used to create videos. These videos can then be used to conceptualize a multitude of coastal processes including: performance of coastal restoration efforts, rapid change in sedimentation rates due to storms or other geomorphic processes, loss of protective barrier islands as sea level rises and lower sedimentation rates occur. The videos are also useful as a tool for verification and comparison to coastal models and provide an easy to understand educational resource for stakeholder engagement at these NASA centers, and other vulnerable coastal populations.

Richard A. MacKenzie III↗