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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Fairfax Water Resources: Estimating Urban Flood Susceptibility, Historical Flooding Extent, and Land Cover Change in Fairfax County, Virginia to Aid in Flood Mitigation Planning

Between 2000 and 2020, Fairfax County, Virginia experienced extreme weather events that caused severe flooding and degradation of roads, businesses, and other public property. A single flood event on July 8th, 2019 resulted in $14.8 million in damages. These flood events routinely impact the community, often resulting in power outages, school closures, and downed trees. The Fairfax County Department of Public Works and Environmental Services partnered with DEVELOP to explore how remotely sensed data could be integrated to support its current flood mitigation efforts. This project used environmental factors such as elevation, slope, and topographic wetness index from Earth observation derived data to map flood susceptibility. We utilized Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-1 C-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR), and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) to map historic flooding events in Fairfax County. These maps will support flood management practices for the Fairfax County Department of Public Works and Environmental Services through the integration of remotely sensed data. Our results show that developed areas in the county are more susceptible to flooding, coinciding with analysis of flood factors, which indicated that imperviousness and tree canopy were the most influential drivers in flood susceptibility. Other results show that using Earth observations to map historical flooding is limited in urban areas due to false positives from SAR imagery between water and shadows. Further research is necessary to evolve the historical flood mapping technique if Earth observations are to be incorporated in future historical flood analysis.

Kaitlynn Hietpas↗
NASA NTRS2003

Flood warnings, flood disaster assessments, and flood hazard reduction : the roles of orbital remote sensing

Orbital remote sensing is now poised to make three fundamental contributions towards reducing the detrimental effects of extreme floods. Effective Flood warning requires frequent (near-daily) radar observation of the Earth's surface through cloud cover. In contrast, both optical and radar wavelengths will increasingly be used for disaster assessment and hazard reduction. These latter tasks are accomplished, in part, by accurate mapping of flooded lands and commonly over periods of several days or more. We use radar scatterometer data from QuikSCAT to detect changes in surface water area and with a full global coverage every 2.5 days. Also, MODIS, RADARSAT, and other higher spatial resolution data are used for flood mapping and other flood measurements. These records are preserved in a global flood hazard atlas at http://www.dartmouth.edu/-floods/Atlas.html.

Shabaneh, Tamer B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Colombia Mi Pronostico Flood Application: Updating and Improving the Mi Pronostico Flood Web Application to Include an Assessment of Flood Risk

Colombia is a country with highly variable terrain, from the Andes Mountains to plains and coastal areas, many of these areas are prone to flooding disasters. To identify these risk areas NASA's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) was used to construct a digital elevation model (DEM) for the study region. The preliminary risk assessment was applied to a pilot study area, the La Mosca River basin. Precipitation data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)'s near-real-time rainfall products as well as precipitation data from the Instituto de Hidrologia, Meteorologia y Estudios Ambientales (the Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies, IDEAM) and stations in the La Mosca River Basin were used to create rainfall distribution maps for the region. Using the precipitation data and the ASTER DEM, the web application, Mi Pronóstico, run by IDEAM, was updated to include an interactive map which currently allows users to search for a location and view the vulnerability and current weather and flooding conditions. The geospatial information was linked to an early warning system in Mi Pronóstico that can alert the public of flood warnings and identify locations of nearby shelters.

Rushley, Stephanie↗
NASA NTRS2003

Flood warnings, flood disaster assessments, and flood hazard reduction: the roles of orbital remote sensing

Orbital remote sensing of the Earth is now poised to make three fundamental contributions towards reducing the detrimental effects of extreme floods. Effective Flood warning requires frequent radar observation of the Earth's surface through cloud cover. In contrast, both optical and radar wavelengths will increasingly be used for disaster assessment and hazard reduction.

floods↗
DOE OSTI2021

The FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT): A Simple Tool to Improve Spatial Flood Probability Quantification and Communication

Understanding flood probabilities is essential to making sound decisions about flood-risk management. Many people rely on flood probability maps to inform decisions about purchasing flood insurance, buying or selling real-estate, flood-proofing a house, or managing floodplain development. Current flood probability maps typically use flood zones (for example the 1 in 100 or 1 in 500-year flood zones) to communicate flooding probabilities. However, this choice of communication format can miss important details and lead to biased risk assessments. Here we develop, test, and demonstrate the FLOod Probability Interpolation Tool (FLOPIT). FLOPIT interpolates flood probabilities between water surface elevation to produce continuous flood-probability maps. FLOPIT uses water surface elevation inundation maps for at least two return periods and creates Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) as well as inundation maps for new return levels. Potential advantages of FLOPIT include being open-source, relatively easy to implement, capable of creating inundation maps from agencies other than FEMA, and applicable to locations where FEMA published flood inundation maps but not flood probability. Using publicly available data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood risk databases as well as state and national datasets, we produce continuous flood-probability maps at three example locations in the United States: Houston (TX), Muncy (PA), and Selinsgrove (PA). We find that the discrete flood zones generally communicate substantially lower flood probabilities than the continuous estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Polarization Reversal Over Flooded Regions and Applications to Large-Scale Flood Mapping with Spaceborne Scatterometers

We present the polarization reversal in backscatter over flooded land regions, and demonstrate for the first time the utility of spaceborne Ku-band scatterometer for large-scale flood mapping. Scatterometer data were collected over the globe by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) operated at 14 GHz on the Japanese ADEOS spacecraft from September 1996 to June 1997. During this time span, several severe floods occurred. Over most land surface, vertical polarization backscatter (Sigma(sub upsilon(upsilon)) is larger than horizontal polarization backscatter (sigma(sub hh)). Such polarization characteristics is reversed and sigma(sub upsilon(upsilon)) is smaller than sigma(sub hh) over flooded regions, except under a dense forest canopy. The total backscatter from the flooded landscape consists of direct backscatter and boundary-interaction backscatter. The direct term is contributed by direct backscattering from objects protruding above the water surface, and by backscattering from waves on the water surface. The boundary-interaction term is contributed by the forward scattering from the protruding objects and then reflected from the water surface, and also by the forward scattering from these objects after the water-surface reflection. Over flooded regions, the boundary-interaction term is dominant at large incidence angles and the strong water-surface reflection is much larger for horizontal polarization than the vertical one due to the Brewster effect in transverse-magnetic waves. These scattering mechanisms cause the polarization reversal over flooded regions. An example obtained with the Analytic Wave Theory is used to illustrate the scattering mechanisms leading to the polarization reversal. We then demonstrate the utility of spaceborne Ku-band scatterometer for large-scale flood mapping. We process NSCAT data to obtain the polarization ratio sigma(sub hh)/sigma(sub upsilon(upsilon)) with colocated data at incidence angles larger than 40 deg. The results over Asian summer monsoon regions in September-October 1996 indicate flooded areas in many countries such as Bangladesh, India, Lao, Vietnam, Cambodia, and China. Reports documented by the United Nation Department of Humanitarian Affairs (now called UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) show loss of many lives and severe flood related damages which affected many million people in the corresponding flooded areas. We also map the NSCAT polarization ratio over the same regions in the "dry season" in January 1997 as a reference to confirm our results. Furthermore, we obtain concurrent ocean wind fields also derived from NSCAT data, and Asia topographic data (USGS GTOPO30) to investigate the flooded area. The results show that winds during summer monsoon season blowing inland, which perplex flood problems. Overlaying the topographic map over NSCAT results reveals an excellent correspondence between the confinement of flooded area within the relevant topographic features, which very well illustrates the value of topographic wetness index. Finally, we discuss the applications of future spaceborne scatterometers, including QuikSCAT and Seawinds, for flood mapping over the globe.

Nghiem, Son V.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Amplified Extreme Floods and Shifting Flood Mechanisms in the Delaware River Basin in Future Climates

Abstract Historical records in the Delaware River Basin reveal complex and spatially diverse flood generating mechanisms influenced by the region's mountains‐to‐plains gradients. This study focuses on predicting future flood hazards and understanding the underlying drivers of changes across the region. Using a process‐based hydrological model, we analyzed the hydrometeorological condition of each historical and future flood event. For each event, at the subbasin scale, we identified the dominant flood generating mechanism, including snowmelt, rain‐on‐snow, short‐duration rain, and long‐duration rain. The rain‐induced floods are further categorized based on the soil's Antecedent Moisture Condition (AMC) before the event, whether dry, normal, or wet. Our historical analysis suggests that rain‐on‐snow is the primary flood mechanism of the Upper Basin. Although most frequent, the magnitude of rain‐on‐snow floods is often less severe than short rain floods. In contrast, historical floods in the Lower Basin are primarily caused by short rain under normal AMC. Given the uncertainties in climate projections, we used an ensemble of future climate scenarios for flood projections. Despite variations in regional climate projections, coherent perspectives emerge: the region will shift toward a warmer, wetter climate, with a projected intensification of extreme floods. The Upper Basin is projected to experience a marked decrease in rain‐on‐snow floods, but a substantial increase in short rain floods with wet AMC. The largest increase in flood magnitude will be driven by short rains with wet AMC in the Upper Basin and by short rains with normal AMC in the Lower Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Analysis of Using Satellite Soil Moisture Observations for Flood Detection, Evaluating Over the Thailand’s Great Flood of 2011

A flood monitoring and warning system provides critical information that can protect property and save lives. A basin-scale flood monitoring system requires an effective observation platform that offers extensive ground coverage of flood conditions, low latency, and high spatiotemporal resolution. While satellite imagery offers substantial spatial flood extent in detail due to its high spatial resolution, the coarse temporal resolution and cloud obstruction limit its near real-time application. Daily soil moisture data derived from satellite sensors at a scale of a few km can be used to monitor extreme wet surface conditions arising in flood occurrences. This study analyses the flood detection capabilities of several sources of soil moisture information, including the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission (SMOS), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on EOS (AMSR-E), the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) on MetOp, the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), and the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM). In addition to soil moisture, the analysis includes measurements of surface reflectance from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), precipitation measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), and terrestrial water storage estimates from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) as proxies for flood inundations. The analysis was conducted over the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPB) in Thailand, where the Great Flood of 2011 led to one of the most significant economic losses in the country's history. Satellite-derived soil moisture exhibits a stronger correlation with the flood inundations than the precipitation, model-derived soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage data. SMOS soil moisture observation agrees best with the MODIS-derived flood extent/occurrence, both in terms of spatial distribution and timing, and providing approximated flood lead-time of one week or longer. A neural network constructed from SMOS and MODIS data is used to predict flood intensity/occurrence (given soil moisture input) with a predicted time window from eight days to thirty-two days. The short-term prediction (e.g., eight days) achieves the highest accuracy with an averaged recovery rate of approximately 60% (correlation coefficient). This study's results suggest a potential application of satellite soil moisture data in assisting flood monitoring and warning systems.

Satellite soil moisture↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluating Flood Forecasting System Performance in Cambodia During the 2019 Flood Season

Every year, Cambodia experiences both flash and prolonged riverine flooding as a result of monsoon rains and typhoons. Floods occur frequently in various parts of the region, and result in significant economic cost. Flood forecasting systems are designed to mitigate economic and social impacts, enabling people to prepare for extreme events. However, in order for forecasts to be used effectively, an assessment of the available forecasting systems is needed. In addition, following the onset of flooding, satellite imagery is used to generate flood maps to aid in response efforts. This study demonstrates the performance of regional and global flood forecasting systems over the 2019 flood season. To do this, we assess the flood forecast accuracy at different forecast lead times through a series of forecast verification metrics at gauge locations in Cambodia. We then compare the flood forecast performance to Sentinel 1 flood maps produced by the Hydrological Remote Sensing Analysis of Floods (HYDRAFloods) tool currently being co-developed by SERVIR-Mekong in collaboration with the Myanmar Department of Disaster Management. This assessment of the flood forecasting systems’ performance and comparison to generated flood maps helps provide context to forecasters and disaster managers as they make improvements to their models. Additionally, these results provide support to forecast users as they evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different systems for taking action.

Nauman, Claire M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dissemination of Global Flood Information Through Nasa Disasters Program Global Initiative for Flood Forecasting and Alerting (GIFFT)

The Global Initiative for Flood Forecasting and Alerting (GIFFT) is an initiative to disseminate flood products from different sensors to global stakeholders via the Pacific Disaster Center’s (PDC) DisasterAWARE®, the NASA Disasters Mapping Portal and potentially other mechanisms. GIFFT will also generate an integrated product(s) using ensembled hydrologic models and Earth observation derived flood outputs to stakeholders globally. This initiative combines the results of several Disasters Program funded projects that focus on flood forecasting, flood severity estimation, post-event flood mapping, flooddepth estimation and resulting flood severity using remote sensing-based flood information derived from SAR and optical imagery. PDC’s DisasterAWARE platform is a global multi-hazard alerting platform that currently incorporatesModel of Models (MoM) outputs as flood “incidents,” visually depicting potential floods in the context ofpopulation and infrastructure that may become affected. Automated procedures are being developed tocategorize MoM outputs as DisasterAWARE “hazards,” allowing for their dissemination to users alongwith other flood products that assess potential impacts. PDC’s stakeholders include UN, DoD, FEMA andtheir equivalents around the world. Additionally, the DisasterALERT mobile platform has 2 million usersworldwide and is a fully functional and sustained platform used to disseminate alerts and analyticalproducts for 18 different hazard types. GIFFT has incorporated HydroSAR products that will bedistributed via DisasterAWARE.

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of Rheology Models on Horizontal Well Polymer Flooding in a Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope: A Simulation Study

Polymer rheology can have either a positive or a negative effect on polymer flooding performance under varied circumstances. Many researchers have studied the effect of polymer rheology in a vertical well, but no field scale studies have been conducted to investigate whether polymer rheology is beneficial to polymer flooding in heavy oil reservoirs developed by horizontal wells. In this paper, we conducted a numerical simulation study to examine the effect of HPAM polymer rheology on a polymer flooding pilot, which is the first-ever project conducted on a heavy oil reservoir from Alaska North Slope (ANS) developed by horizontal wells. Three rheology types were considered in the study including the apparent viscosity measured during coreflooding of using a HPAM polymer, the bulk viscosity measured with a viscometer, and a Newtonian flow model. The results suggest that using the bulk viscosity in simulation underestimates the conformance control and the water-oil-ratio reduction capability of the HPAM polymer solution. When the apparent viscosity is used, the incremental oil and sweep were largely increased, and the optimal recovery period of polymer flooding was extended greatly, especially for the heterogeneous formations. Therefore, the rheology type of polymer plays a significant role in the incremental oil recovery and injection profile of the horizontal well system given the pilot test conditions. This study has provided practical guidance to field operators for the ongoing polymer flooding pilot on ANS and will also provide valuable information for other polymer projects conducted in similar conditions.

Leng, Jianqiao↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Experimental System for a Global Flood Prediction: From Satellite Precipitation Data to a Flood Inundation Map

Floods impact more people globally than any other type of natural disaster. It has been established by experience that the most effective means to reduce the property damage and life loss caused by floods is the development of flood early warning systems. However, advances for such a system have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-. national-, continental-. or even global-scale areas) and time (hourly to daily). Particularly, insufficient in situ data, long delay in data transmission and absence of real-time data sharing agreements in many trans-boundary basins hamper the development of a real-time system at the regional to global scale. In many countries around the world, particularly in the tropics where rainfall and flooding co-exist in abundance, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data for those data scarce (ungauged) areas and trans-boundary basins. Satellite remote sensing data acquired and processed in real time can now provide the space-time information on rainfall fluxes needed to monitor severe flood events around the world. This can be achieved by integrating the satellite-derived forcing data with hydrological models, which can be parameterized by a tailored geospatial database. An example that is a key to this progress is NASA's contribution to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), launched in November 1997. Hence, in an effort to evolve toward a more hydrologically-relevant flood alert system, this talk articulates a module-structured framework for quasi-global flood potential naming, that is 'up to date' with the state of the art on satellite rainfall estimation and the improved geospatial datasets. The system is modular in design with the flexibility that permits changes in the model structure and in the choice of components. Four major components included in the system are: 1) multi-satellite precipitation estimation; 2) characterization of land surface including digital elevation from NASA SRTM, topography-derived hydrologic parameters such as flood direction. flow accumulation, basin, and river network etc.; 3) spatially distributed hydrological models to infiltrate rainfall and route overland runoff; and 4) an implementation interface to relay thc input data to the models and display the flood inundation results to the users and decision-makers. Early results appear reasonable in terms of location and frequency of events. Case studies of this experimental system are evaluated with surface runoff data and other river monitoring systems. such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory's "Surface Water Watch" array of river reaches that are measured daily via other satellite remote sensing data. A major outcome of this progress will be the availability of a global overview of flood alerts that should consequently improve the performance of Decision Support System. We expect these developments in utilization of satellite remote sensing technology to offer a practical solution to the challenge of building a cost-effective early warning system for data scarce and under-developed areas.

Adler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2023

Youngstown and Warren Disasters: Mapping Flood Susceptibility, Vulnerability, and Risk and Tree Canopy Coverage in Northern Ohio to Inform Stormwater Management and Flood Mitigation Efforts

Both pluvial and fluvial flooding events pose direct challenges on urban infrastructure and communities across the United States. Heavy rainfall events oversaturate the ground, overflow waterbodies, and overwhelm stormwater infrastructure. Vulnerable areas receive heavy damage from flooding events due to physical factors like increased impervious surfaces, poor stormwater systems, and limited greenspaces. These vulnerable neighborhoods are comprised of aging populations, minority communities, and lower income levels. Lack of data in these communities have made it difficult to implement policymaking and flood mitigation strategies. Using the Urban Flood Risk Mitigation model (InVEST) and the PlanetScope satellite constellation, the team visualized historical flooding and tree canopy coverage as a measure of flood susceptibility. The team also used the Arc-Malstrom model to provide further insight into where flooding accumulates via surface elevation depressions in the study area. To validate these models, the team explored the spatial variation of rainfall events using NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG). The resulting maps highlight areas surrounding the cities of Youngstown and Warren as being the most flood susceptible and socially vulnerable, while the city centers contain the lowest tree canopy coverage. The DEVELOP team collaborated with the Environmental Collaborative of Ohio (ECO) to create products for end users within the City of Warren’s Water Pollution Control Department, the Eastgate Regional Council of Governments and the Healthy Community Partnership of Mahoning Valley. These products help identify target areas for preventative flood mitigation measures as well as areas ideal for green infrastructure intervention.

InVEST Urban Flood Risk Mitigation Model↗
DOE OSTI2021

History Matching and Performance Prediction of a Polymer Flood Pilot in Heavy Oil Reservoir on Alaska North Slope

The first-ever polymer flood pilot to enhance heavy oil recovery on Alaska North Slope (ANS) is ongoing. After more than 2.5 years of polymer injection, significant benefit has been observed from the decrease in water cut from 65% to less than 15% in the project producers. The primary objective of this study is to develop a robust history-matched reservoir simulation model capable of predicting future polymer flood performance. In this work, the reservoir simulation model has been developed based on the geological model and available reservoir and fluid data. In particular, four high transmissibility strips were introduced to connect the injector-producer well pairs, simulating short-circuiting flow behavior that can be explained by viscous fingering and reproducing the water cut history. The strip transmissibilities were manually tuned to improve the history matching results during the waterflooding and polymer flooding periods, respectively. It has been found that higher strip transmissibilities match the sharp water cut increase very well in the waterflooding period. Then the strip transmissibilities need to be reduced with time to match the significant water cut reduction. The viscous fingering effect in the reservoir during waterflooding and the restoration of injection conformance during polymer flooding have been effectively represented. Based on the validated simulation model, numerical simulation tests have been conducted to investigate the oil recovery performance under different development strategies, with consideration for sensitivity to polymer parameter uncertainties. The oil recovery factor with polymer flooding can reach about 39% in 30 years, twice as much as forecasted with continued waterflooding. Besides, the updated reservoir model has been successfully employed to forecast polymer utilization, a valuable parameter to evaluate the pilot test’s economic efficiency. All the investigated development strategies indicate polymer utilization lower than 3.5 lbs/bbl in 30 years, which is economically attractive.

Wang, Xindan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Crowd-based spatial risk assessment of urban flooding: Results from a municipal flood hotline in Detroit, MI

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, raising the risk of urban flood disasters. This study uses a crowd-sourced municipal call database to characterize the spatial distribution of flood risk in Detroit, MI. Call data including dates and addresses were obtained from the City of Detroit Department of Public Works for 2021. Calls were mapped and aggregated to census tract counts and merged with neighborhood-level data. Associations of predictors with flood calls were tested using spatial regression models. Flooding calls were located throughout the city but were concentrated in specific areas. Multivariate models of census tract level call counts indicated that increased poverty and Black, immigrant, and older residents were positively associated with flood calls, while increased elevation was associated with protective effects. Longer distances from waste water interceptors were associated with higher risk for calls. Crowd-sourced flood hotline call data can be used for effective spatial flood risk assessment. Though flooding occurs throughout the city of Detroit, infrastructural, neighborhood, and household factors influence flooding extent. Limitations included the self-reported nature of calls. Future modeling efforts might include input from local stakeholders to improve spatial risk assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗