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At least 19 records

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options evaluation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated.

Wenning, B. D.↗

A Sinuous Tumulus over an Active Lava Tube at Klauea Volcano: Evolution, Analogs, and Hazard Forecasts

Inflation of narrow tube-fed basaltic lava flows (tens of meters across), such as those confined by topography, can be focused predominantly along the roof of a lava tube. This can lead to the development of an unusually long tumulus, its shape matching the sinuosity of the underlying lava tube. Such a situation occurred during Klauea Volcanos (Hawaii, USA) ongoing East Rift Zone eruption on a lava tube active from July through November 2010. Short-lived breakouts from the tube buried the flanks of the sinuous, ridge-like tumulus, while the tumulus crest, its surface composed of lava formed very early in the flows emplacement history, remained poised above the surrounding younger flows. At least several of these breakouts resulted in irrecoverable uplift of the tube roof. Confined sections of the prehistoric Carrizozo and McCartys flows (New Mexico, USA) display similar sinuous, ridge-like features with comparable surface age relationships. We contend that these distinct features formed in a fashion equivalent to that of the sinuous tumulus that formed at Kīlauea in 2010. Moreover, these sinuous tumuli may be analogs for some sinuous ridges evident in orbital images of the Tharsis volcanic province on Mars. The short-lived breakouts from the sinuous tumulus at Kīlauea were caused by surges in discharge through the lava tube, in response to cycles of deflation and inflation (DI events) at Kīlauea's summit. The correlation between DI events and subsequent breakouts aided in lava flow forecasting. Breakouts from the sinuous tumulus advanced repeatedly toward the sparsely populated Kalapana Gardens subdivision, destroying two homes and threatening others. Hazard assessments, including flow occurrence and advance forecasts, were relayed regularly to the Hawaiʻi County Civil Defense to aid their lava flow hazard mitigation efforts while this lava tube was active.

volcanic hazards↗

The meteorological environment of the tropospheric ozone maximum over the tropical South Atlantic Ocean

Atmospheric flow patterns are examined over the South Atlantic Ocean where a maximum of tropospheric ozone has been observed just west of southern Africa. We investigate the flow climatology during October and perform a case study for six days during October 1989. Horizontal and vertical motions are examined and used to prepare 3D backward trajectories from the region of greatest ozone. An initially zonally symmetric distribution of ozone is treated as a passive tracer and advected by 3D flows forecast by the global model. Results from the passive tracer simulation indicate that 3D advection alone can produce a maximum of tropospheric ozone in the observed location. In addition, the trajectories suggest that by-products of biomass burning could be transported to the area of maximum ozone. Low-level flow from commonly observed regions of burning in Africa streams westward to the area of interest. Over Brazil, if the burning by-products are carried into the upper troposphere by convective process, they then could be transported eastward to the ozone feature in approximately five days. There is considerable subsidence over the tropical southern Atlantic, such that stratospheric influences also are a factor in producing the ozone maximum. Both planetary-scale and transient synoptic-scale circulation features play major roles in the various transport processes that influence the region. In summary, the observed tropospheric ozone maximum appears to be caused by a complex set of horizontal and vertical advections, transport from regions of biomass burning, and stratospheric influences.

Krishnamurti, T. N.↗

The Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum

In August 2004, representatives from NOAA, NASA, the USGS, and other government agencies convened in San Juan, Puerto Rim for a workshop to discuss a proposed research project called the Hurricane-Flood-Landslide Continuum (HFLC). The essence of the HFLC is to develop and integrate tools across disciplines to enable the issuance of regional guidance products for floods and landslides associated with major tropical rain systems, with sufficient lead time that local emergency managers can protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. All three lead agencies are independently developing precipitation-flood-debris flow forecasting technologies, and all have a history of work on natural hazards both domestically and overseas. NOM has the capability to provide tracking and prediction of storm rainfall, trajectory and landfall and is developing flood probability and magnTtude capabilities. The USGS has the capability to evaluate the ambient stability of natural and man-made landforms, to assess landslide susceptibilities for those landforms, and to establish probabilities for initiation of landslides and debris flows. Additionally, the USGS has well-developed operational capacity for real-time monitoring and reporting of streamflow across distributed networks of automated gaging stations (http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/). NASA has the capability to provide sophisticated algorithms for satellite remote sensing of precipitation, land use, and in the future, soil moisture. The Workshop sought to initiate discussion among three agencies regarding their specific and highly complimentary capabilities. The fundamental goal of the Workshop was to establish a framework that will leverage the strengths of each agency. Once a prototype system is developed for example, in relatively data-rich Puerto Rim, it could be adapted for use in data-poor, low-infrastructure regions such as the Dominican Republic or Haiti. This paper provides an overview of the Workshop s goals, presentations and recommendations with respect to the development of the HFLC.

Negri, Andrew J.↗

Comparison of remote sensors for soil moisture and other hydrologic studies

Progress in lake temperature and soil moisture remote sensing during 1971. The use of satellite data and imagery for improved flood and low flow forecasts, improved water level and ice reports for the Great Lakes, and better and faster coastal zone storm damage assessment is considered.

Wiesnet, D. R.↗

Water survey of Canada: Application for use of ERTS-A for retransmission of water resources data

The author has identified the following significant results. Nine sites in isolated regions in Canada have been selected for installation of ERTS data collection platforms. Seven platforms were installed in 1972, one of which did not operate. The six operating platforms transmitted over 7000 water level readings from stream gauging stations. This data is available on a near real time basis through the Canada Center for Remote Sensing and is used for river flow forecasting. The practicability of using satellite retransmission as a means of obtaining data from remote areas has been demonstrated.

Halliday, R. A.↗

Retransmission of water resources data using the ERTS-1 data collection system

The Water Survey of Canada operates a network of approximately 2400 gauging stations at which water level data are collected. Nine DCPs were installed in isolated areas of northern and western Canada. It was felt that DCPs in these locations would be exposed to climatic conditions severe enough to provide a check on system reliability. Water level data are transmitted from all sites and, also, some of the DCPs are used to transmit ice break-up, water velocity, precipitation, air temperature, water stage recorder clock operation or DCP battery voltage. Consideration is being given to transmitting other parameters that would be of value in flood or flow forecasting. Results of the project have been excellent. There has been no data loss that can be attributed to failure of a DCP although data were lost because of sensor malfunctions. The quality of data collected compares favourably with that of the hard record obtained at the remote sites. Costs of using the ERTS Data Collection System are reasonable.

Halliday, R. A.↗

Meteorological data collection via ERTS-A data retransmission facilities

The author has identified the following significant results. Two meteorological data acquisition systems were built to support hydrometeorological programs related to flow forecasting. Data errors were detected in the stream level formation; these errors were caused by sensor difficulties.

Vockeroth, R. E.↗

Operational Applications of Satellite Snowcover Observations Project

The ongoing Operational Applications of Satellite Snowcover Observations (OASSO) Project of NASA's Applications Systems Verification Test (ASVT) Program is discussed. The general objectives, organization, and study-area activities of the OASSO program are outlined. It is noted that this part of the ASVT Program is designed to evaluate under operational conditions the overall utility of satellite snowcover observations for stream flow forecasts and will be carried out in four regions centered in Arizona, California, Colorado, and Oregon.

Rango, A.↗

Applications of remote sensing technology to U.S. Water resource management

Applications of Landsat data to assessing the available water supply in the U.S. for agricultural puposes as a program of the NASA Office of Space Science and Applications are described. Snow melt runoff predictions are performed with multitemporal Landsat imagery to measure the extent of mountain snow packs in the Rockies in order to produce stream flow forecast models. The data is used for decisions of which crops to plant, based on irrigation water which will be accessible in eleven western U.S. states. Imagery has tracked the growth of irrigated lands watered from the Ogallala aquifer in the central U.S., and is providing a data base for calculating the aquifer depletion rates. Studies are preceeding in temporally mapping the kinds of vegetation growing in the Suwannee Sound in Florida to monitor the intrusion of salt water, which would reduce the River's usefulness for irrigation. Finally, capabilities of the Thematic Mapper are reviewed.

Weber, J. D.↗

OLYMPEX Data Workshop: GPM View

OLYMPEX Primary Objectives: Datasets to enable: (1) Direct validation over complex terrain at multiple scales, liquid and frozen precip types, (a) Do we capture terrain and synoptic regime transitions, orographic enhancements/structure, full range of precipitation intensity (e.g., very light to heavy) and types, spatial variability? (b) How well can we estimate space/time-accumulated precipitation over terrain (liquid + frozen)? (2) Physical validation of algorithms in mid-latitude cold season frontal systems over ocean and complex terrain, (a) What are the column properties of frozen, melting, liquid hydrometeors-their relative contributions to estimated surface precipitation, transition under the influence of terrain gradients, and systematic variability as a function of synoptic regime? (3) Integrated hydrologic validation in complex terrain, (a) Can satellite estimates be combined with modeling over complex topography to drive improved products (assimilation, downscaling) [Level IV products] (b) What are capabilities and limitations for use of satellite-based precipitation estimates in stream/river flow forecasting?

GPM↗

Characterization of Subsurface Flow Dynamics for Forecasting of Solar Activity

Evolution of large-scale magnetic field structures in the solar photosphere and corona is controlled by motions beneath the visible surface of the Sun. Subsurface plasma flows play a critical role in formation and evolution of active regions and their activity. We analyze subsurface flow maps provided by the local helioseismology pipeline from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) data on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, and investigate links between flow characteristics and magnetic activity. The primary goal is to determine flow descriptors, which can improve solar activity forecasts. In particular, by employing machine learning classifiers, we test how the flow helicity and velocity shear descriptors can improve the prediction of initiation of flares and CME eruptions.

Kosovichev, Alexander↗

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Design and Validation

An ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center to provide global three-dimensional analyzed ozone mixing ratio and total column ozone. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total column ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or SBUV/2 partial ozone profile data are assimilated. The analyzed winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) drive the ozone transport. Following every transport model timestep, the model prediction is combined with the observations using a global, physical-space based, statistical analysis scheme. Due to the smaller size of the ozone system than that of a global meteorological data assimilation system, new statistical analysis methodology, including anisotropic and flow-dependent forecast error correlation models, can be implemented and tested in the ozone system more easily. Sample results from the winter 1992 validation period are presented. There is a close agreement between the analyzed fields and the independent observations from ozone sondes and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE).

Stajner, I.↗

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is carrying the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with 1" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SAO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." Our presentation will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO/HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of ~1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.

Schuck, Peter W.↗