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NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario

The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.

Asteroid deflection↗

BepiColombo Science Investigations During Cruise and Flybys at the Earth, Venus and Mercury

The dual spacecraft mission BepiColombo is the first joint mission between the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to explore the planet Mercury. BepiColombo was launched from Kourou (French Guiana) on October 20th, 2018, in its packed configuration including two spacecraft, a transfer module, and a sunshield. BepiColombo cruise trajectory is a long journey into the inner heliosphere, and it includes one flyby of the Earth (in April 2020), two of Venus (in October 2020 and August 2021), and six of Mercury (starting from 2021), before orbit insertion in December 2025. A big part of the mission instruments will be fully operational during the mission cruise phase, allowing unprecedented investigation of the different environments that will encounter during the 7-years long cruise. The present paper reviews all the planetary flybys and some interesting cruise configurations. Additional scientific research that will emerge in the coming years is also discussed, including the instruments that can contribute.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Size and Shape Constraints of (486958) Arrokoth from Stellar Occultations

We present the results from four stellar occultations by (486958) Arrokoth, the flyby target of the New Horizons extended mission. Three of the four efforts led to positive detections of the body, and all constrained the presence of rings and other debris, finding none. Twenty-five mobile stations were deployed for 2017 June 3 and augmented by fixed telescopes. There were no positive detections from this effort. The event on 2017 July 10 was observed by the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy with one very short chord. Twenty-four deployed stations on 2017 July 17 resulted in five chords that clearly showed a complicated shape consistent with a contact binary with rough dimensions of 20 by 30 km for the overall outline. A visible albedo of 10% was derived from these data. Twenty-two systems were deployed for the fourth event on 2018 August 4 and resulted in two chords. The combination of the occultation data and the flyby results provides a significant refinement of the rotation period, now estimated to be 15.9380 ± 0.0005 hr. The occultation data also provided high-precision astrometric constraints on the position of the object that were crucial for supporting the navigation for the New Horizons flyby. This work demonstrates an effective method for obtaining detailed size and shape information and probing for rings and dust on distant Kuiper Belt objects as well as being an important source of positional data that can aid in spacecraft navigation that is particularly useful for small and distant bodies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Inner southern magnetosphere observation of Mercury via SERENA ion sensors in BepiColombo mission

Mercury’s southern inner magnetosphere is an unexplored region as it was not observed by earlier space missions. In October 2021, BepiColombo mission has passed through this region during its first Mercury flyby. Here, we describe the observations of SERENA ion sensors nearby and inside Mercury’s magnetosphere. An intermittent high-energy signal, possibly due to an interplanetary magnetic flux rope, has been observed downstream Mercury, together with low energy solar wind. Low energy ions, possibly due to satellite outgassing, were detected outside the magnetosphere. The dayside magnetopause and bow-shock crossing were much closer to the planet than expected, signature of a highly eroded magnetosphere. Different ion populations have been observed inside the magnetosphere, like low latitude boundary layer at magnetopause inbound and partial ring current at dawn close to the planet. These observations are important for understanding the weak magnetosphere behavior so close to the Sun, revealing details never reached before.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Space Mission Options for Reconnaissance and Mitigation of Asteroid 2024 YR4

Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR 4 was discovered on 2024-12-27 and its probability of Earth impact in December 2032 peaked at ~3% on 2025-02-18. Additional observations ruled out Earth impact by 2025-02-23. However, the probability of lunar impact in December 2032 then rose, reaching ~4% by the end of the apparition in May 2025. James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) observations on 2025-03-26 estimated the asteroid’s diameter at 60 ± 7 m. Studies of 2024 YR 4 ’s potential lunar impact effects suggest lunar ejecta could increase micrometeoroid debris flux in low Earth orbit up to 1000 times above background levels over just a few days, possibly threatening astronauts and spacecraft. In this work, we present options for space missions to 2024 YR 4 that could be utilized if lunar impact is confirmed. Here, we cover flyby & rendezvous reconnaissance, deflection, and robust disruption of the asteroid. We examine both rapid-response and delayed launch options through 2032. We evaluate chemical and solar electric propulsion, various launch vehicles, optimized deep space maneuvers, and gravity assists. Re-tasking extant spacecraft and using built spacecraft not yet launched are also considered. The best reconnaissance mission options launch in late 2028, leaving only approximately three years for development at the time of this writing in August 2025. Deflection missions were assessed and appear impractical. However, kinetic robust disruption missions are available with launches between April 2030 and April 2032. Nuclear robust disruption missions are also available with launches between late 2029 and late 2031. Finally, even if lunar impact is ruled out there is significant potential utility in deploying a reconnaissance mission to characterize the asteroid.

Asteroid deflection↗

NASA Dragonfly Mission MMRTG

The Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) group at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is supporting NASA’s New Frontier class mission, Dragonfly, to explore the Saturn moon Titan. Titan has been observed by both Voyager spacecrafts in 1979 and 1980 and during over 100 close flyby encounters by the Cassini orbiter and subsequent landing of the Huygens probe which landed on Titan in 2005. The probe lasted about 2.5 hours without an RPS due to the thick atmosphere and cold climate but gave scientists valuable insight into the geology of Titan. The surface is composed of vast sand dunes and liquid methane with an atmosphere composed primarily of nitrogen that is 60% more dense as the Earth’s with 1/7th of Earth’s gravity. These conditions allow for exploration using a dual-quadcopter. Due to the extreme temperatures (-290°F or -180°C), changes to the Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) are required. This generator, designated flight unit 4 or MMRTG-F4, is being built by a team lead by INL and includes the prime contractor Aerojet Rocketdyne and their supplier Teledyne Energy System. This poster outlines the mission, the unique challenges and updates the build progress.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SUDA: A SUrface Dust Analyser for Compositional Mapping of the Galilean Moon Europa

Abstract The Surface Dust Analyser (SUDA) is a mass spectrometer onboard the Europa Clipper mission for investigating the surface composition of the Galilean moon Europa. Atmosphereless planetary moons such as the Galilean satellites are wrapped into a ballistic dust exosphere populated by tiny samples from the moon’s surface produced by impacts of fast micrometeoroids. SUDA will measure the composition of such surface ejecta during close flybys of Europa to obtain key chemical signatures for revealing the satellite’s composition such as organic molecules and salts, history, and geological evolution. Because of their ballistic orbits, detected ejecta can be traced back to the surface with a spatial resolution roughly equal to the instantaneous altitude of the spacecraft. SUDA is a Time-Of-Flight (TOF), reflectron-type impact mass spectrometer, optimized for a high mass resolution which only weakly depends on the impact location. The instrument will measure the mass, speed, charge, elemental, molecular, and isotopic composition of impacting grains. The instrument’s small size of$268 ~\mathrm {mm} \times 250 ~\mathrm {mm} \times 171$ 268 mm × 250 mm × 171 $~\mathrm {mm}$ mm , radiation-hard design, and rather large sensitive area of 220 cm 2 matches well the challenging demands of the Clipper mission.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Modeling the Enceladus dust plume based on in situ measurements performed with the Cassini Cosmic Dust Analyzer

We analyzed data recorded by the Cosmic Dust Analyzer on board the Cassini spacecraft during Enceladus dust plume traversals. Our focus was on profiles of relative abundances of grains of different compositional types derived from mass spectra recorded with the Dust Analyzer subsystem during the Cassini flybys E5 and E17. The E5 profile, corresponding to a steep and fast traversal of the plume, has already been analyzed. In this paper, we included a second profile from the E17 flyby involving a nearly horizontal traversal of the south polar terrain at a significantly lower velocity. Additionally, we incorporated dust detection rates from the High Rate Detector subsystem during flybys E7 and E21. We derived grain size ranges in the different observational data sets and used these data to constrain parameters for a new dust plume model. This model was constructed using a mathematical description of dust ejection implemented in the software package DUDI. Further constraints included published velocities of gas ejection, positions of gas and dust jets, and the mass production rate of the plume. Our model employs two different types of sources: diffuse sources of dust ejected with a lower velocity and jets with a faster and more colimated emission. From our model, we derived dust mass production rates for different compositional grain types, amounting to at least 28 kg s –1 . Previously, salt-rich dust was believed to dominate the plume mass based on E5 data alone. The E17 profile shows a dominance of organic-enriched grains over the south polar terrain, a region not well constrained by E5 data. By including both E5 and E17 profiles, we find the salt-rich dust contribution to be at most 1% by mass. This revision also results from an improved understanding of grain masses of various compositional types that implies smaller sizes for salt-rich grains. Our new model can predict grain numbers and masses for future mission detectors during plume traversals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗