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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Global Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks for Large Earthquakes

Abstract Foreshocks are the only currently widely identified precursory seismic behavior, yet their utility and even identifiability are problematic, in part because of extreme variation in behavior. Here, we establish some global trends that help identify the expected frequency of foreshocks as well the type of earthquake most prone to foreshocks. We establish these tendencies using the global earthquake catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center with a completeness level of magnitude 5 and mainshocks with Mw≥7.0. Foreshocks are identified using three clustering algorithms to address the challenge of distinguishing foreshocks from background activity. The methods give a range of 15%–43% of large mainshocks having at least one foreshock but a narrower range of 13%–26% having at least one foreshock with magnitude within two units of the mainshock magnitude. These observed global foreshock rates are similar to regional values for a completeness level of magnitude 3 using the same detection conditions. The foreshock sequences have distinctive characteristics with the global composite population b-values being lower for foreshocks than for aftershocks, an attribute that is also manifested in synthetic catalogs computed by epidemic-type aftershock sequences, which intrinsically involves only cascading processes. Focal mechanism similarity of foreshocks relative to mainshocks is more pronounced than for aftershocks. Despite these distinguishing characteristics of foreshock sequences, the conditions that promote high foreshock productivity are similar to those that promote high aftershock productivity. For instance, a modestly higher percentage of interplate mainshocks have foreshocks than intraplate mainshocks, and reverse faulting events slightly more commonly have foreshocks than normal or strike-slip-faulting mainshocks. The western circum-Pacific is prone to having slightly more foreshock activity than the eastern circum-Pacific.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regional Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks

Abstract Measures of foreshock occurrence are systematically examined using earthquake catalogs for eight regions (Italy, southern California, northern California, Costa Rica, Onshore Japan, Alaska, Turkey, and Greece) after imposing a magnitude ≥3.0 completeness level. Foreshocks are identified using three approaches: a magnitude-dependent space + fixed-time windowing method, a nearest-neighbor clustering method, and a modified magnitude-dependent space + variable-time windowing method. The method with fixed-time windows systematically yields higher counts of foreshocks than the other two clustering methods. We find similar counts of foreshocks across the three methods when the magnitude aperture is equalized by including only earthquakes in the magnitude range M*−2≤ M< M*, in which M* is the mainshock magnitude. For most of the catalogs (excluding Italy and southern California), the measured b-values of the foreshocks of all region-specific mainshocks are lower by 0.1–0.2 than b-values of respective aftershocks. Allowing for variable-time windows results in relatively high probabilities of having at least one foreshock in Italy (∼43%–56%), compared to other regional catalogs. Foreshock probabilities decrease to 14%–41% for regions such as Turkey, Greece, and Costa Rica. Similar trends are found when requiring at least five foreshocks in a sequence to be considered. Estimates of foreshock probabilities for each mainshock are method dependent; however, consistent regional trends exist regardless of method, with regions such as Italy and southern California producing more observable foreshocks than Turkey and Greece. Some regions with relatively high background seismicity have comparatively low probabilities of detectable foreshock activity when using methods that account for variable background, possibly due to depletion of near-failure fault conditions by background activity.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Magnetopause Reconnection and Indents Induced by Foreshock Turbulence

Abstract Based on global hybrid simulation results, we predict that foreshock turbulence can reach the magnetopause and lead to reconnection as well as Earth‐sized indents. Both the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind are constant in our simulation, and hence, all dynamics are generated by foreshock instabilities. The IMF in the simulation is mostly Sun‐Earth aligned with a weak northward and zero dawn‐dusk component, such that subsolar magnetopause reconnection is not expected without foreshock turbulence modifying the magnetosheath fields. We show a reconnection example to illustrate that the turbulence can create large magnetic shear angles across the magnetopause to induce local bursty reconnection. Magnetopause reconnection and indents developed from the impact of foreshock turbulence can potentially contribute to dayside loss of planetary plasmas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Frequency–Magnitude Statistics of Laboratory Foreshocks Vary With Shear Velocity, Fault Slip Rate, and Shear Stress

Understanding the nucleation phase of earthquakes is key for advancing earthquake hazard assessment and improving earthquake early warning systems. However, little progress has been made in this area due to a poor understanding of nucleation processes and incomplete seismic and fault zone measurements. The ability to integrate measured fault zone properties with seismic data could significantly improve our understanding of how earthquakes begin and whether there are systematic variations in seismic properties preceding failure. In this work, we use high-resolution laboratory measurements of fault zone properties along with acoustic emission data to document temporal variations of foreshock properties. Our data show that foreshock size increases with shear stress, loading rate, and fault slip rate. We propose that the preseismic fault slip rate and fault zone thickness (i.e., porosity) work in concert to modulate foreshock properties.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

First Global Images of Ion Energization in the Terrestrial Foreshock by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer

The Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission provides global energetic neutral atom (ENA) observations from the heliosphere and the Earth's magnetosphere, including spatial, temporal, and energy information. IBEX views the magnetosphere from the sides and almost always perpendicular to noon-midnight plane. We report the first ENA images of the energization process in the Earth's ion foreshock and magnetosheath regions. We show ENA flux and spectral images of the dayside magnetosphere with significant energization of ENA plasma sources (above ~2.7 keV) in the region magnetically connected to the Earth's bow shock (BS) in its quasi-parallel configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We also show that the ion energization increases gradually with decreasing IMF-BS angle, suggesting more efficient suprathermal ion acceleration deeper in the quasi-parallel foreshock.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Foreshock properties illuminate nucleation processes of slow and fast laboratory earthquakes

Understanding the connection between seismic activity and the earthquake nucleation process is a fundamental goal in earthquake seismology with important implications for earthquake early warning systems and forecasting. We use high-resolution acoustic emission (AE) waveform measurements from laboratory stick-slip experiments that span a spectrum of slow to fast slip rates to probe spatiotemporal properties of laboratory foreshocks and nucleation processes. We measure waveform similarity and pairwise differential travel-times (DTT) between AEs throughout the seismic cycle. AEs broadcasted prior to slow labquakes have small DTT and high waveform similarity relative to fast labquakes. We show that during slow stick-slip, the fault never fully locks, and waveform similarity and pairwise differential travel times do not evolve throughout the seismic cycle. In contrast, fast laboratory earthquakes are preceded by a rapid increase in waveform similarity late in the seismic cycle and a reduction in differential travel times, indicating that AEs begin to coalesce as the fault slip velocity increases leading up to failure. These observations point to key differences in the nucleation process of slow and fast labquakes and suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of laboratory foreshocks is linked to fault slip velocity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interhemispheric Observations of ULF Waves Caused by Foreshock Transients Under Quiet Solar Wind Conditions

Abstract Foreshock transient (FT) events are frequently observed phenomena that are generated by discontinuities in the solar wind. These transient events are known to trigger global‐scale magnetic field perturbations (e.g., ULF waves). We report a series of FT events observed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission in the upstream bow shock region under quiet solar wind conditions. During the event, ground magnetometers observed significant Pc1 wave activity as well as magnetic impulse events in both hemispheres. Ground Pc1 wave observations show ∼8 min time delay (with some time differences) from each FT event which is observed at the bow shock. We also find that the ground Pc1 waves are observed earlier in the northern hemisphere compared to the southern hemisphere. The observation time difference between the hemispheres implies that the source region of the wave is the off‐equatorial region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A statistical study of three-second foreshock ULF waves observed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission

We perform a statistical study of 3-s ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves using Magnetospheric Multiscale observations in the Earth's foreshock region. The average phase velocity in the plasma rest frame is determined to be anti-sunward, and the intrinsic polarization is right-handed. We further examine the linear instability conditions based on the drift-bi-Maxwellian distribution functions according to the observed plasma conditions. The resulting instability is a solution to the common dispersion equation of the ion/ion right-hand non-resonant and left-hand resonant instabilities. The predicted wave propagation is also predominantly anti-sunward. The cyclotron resonant conditions of the solar wind and backstreaming beam ions are evaluated, and we find that, in some cases, the anti-sunward propagating waves can be resonant with beam ions, which was overlooked in previous studies. The study suggests that the dispersion equation provides the 3-s ULF waves a fundamental explanation that unifies a rich variety of resonant conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Foreshock Model for Interstellar Shocks of Solar Origin: Voyager 1 and 2 Observations

The Voyager 1 (V1) and Voyager 2 (V2) spacecraft were launched in 1977 on a mission to explore the outer planets and reach the heliopause, the boundary between the hot solar plasma and the relatively cool interstellar plasma. V1 reached the heliopause on 2012 August 25, at 121.6 au, and V2 reached the heliopause on 2018 November 5, at 119.0 au. One of their remarkable discoveries was the detection of shocks propagating into the interstellar plasma from energetic solar events. These shocks are typically preceded by electron plasma oscillations excited by electron beams streaming along interstellar magnetic field lines ahead of the shocks. The frequencies of the plasma oscillations have now provided radial electron density profiles in the outer heliosphere and in the interstellar medium to radial distances of more than 145 au. The oscillations are typically preceded by bursts of high-energy ∼5–100 MeV electrons. These electron bursts are interpreted as being due to the reflection (and acceleration) of cosmic-ray electrons by the shock at the time the shock first contacts the magnetic field line that passes through the spacecraft. Relative timing between the cosmic rays reflected by the shock and the onset of the plasma oscillations allow us, for the first time, to estimate the energy, ∼20–100 eV, of the electron beams responsible for the plasma oscillations. These observations are combined into a self-consistent model called the foreshock model that describes the interaction of shocks of solar origin with the interstellar plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solitary Magnetic Structures Developed From Gyro-Resonance With Solar Wind Ions at Mars and Earth

We investigate solitary magnetic structures in the foreshock of Mars and Earth. The structures exhibit pulse-like magnetic field and density enhancements along with plasma heating and local solar wind (SW) ion reflection. The structures at Mars resemble the foreshock structures developed from ultra-low-frequency electromagnetic waves gyro-resonant with SW ions at Earth, and propagate toward the magnetosphere. We perform fully kinetic simulations to reproduce the solitary structures and the nonlinear evolution of ion distribution functions, illustrating their resonance with SW ions. The structures present self-induced foreshock turbulence that can have space weather effects. Our results advance the fundamental understanding of how SW interacts with planetary magnetospheres, and have potential impact on the current picture of planet-origin ion escape.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors

The topic of earthquake prediction has a long history, littered with failed attempts. Part of the challenge is that possible precursory signals are usually reported after the event, and the systematic relationships between potential precursors and main events, should they exist, are unclear. Furthermore, several recent studies have shown the potential of new approaches to simultaneously detect earthquake foreshocks and slow-slip phenomena through ground deformation, seismic, and gravitational transients—weeks to months before large subduction zone earthquakes. The entire international community of earthquake researchers should be engaged in deploying instrumentation, sharing data in real time, and improving physical models to resolve the extent to which slow slip events and earthquake swarms enhance the likelihood (or not) for later, larger earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Oblique propagation and temperature effects on the resonant right-hand ion beam instability

The resonant right-hand instability (RHI) is often the dominant mode driven by reflected ions upstream of Earth’s quasi-parallel bow shock. In the tradition of Peter Gary, this paper further explores the right-hand instability using numerical solutions of the plasma dispersion relation and non-linear kinetic simulations, with parameters inspired by observations from NASA’s Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission. Agreement is found between the ion distributions in the particle-in-cell simulations and Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft data, which show the gyrophase bunching characteristic of the instability. The non-linear structures created by right-hand instability tend to be stronger when the plasma beta is lower. These structures have sizes of around 100 to 200 ion inertial lengths perpendicular to the magnetic field, presenting planet-sized disturbances to the magnetosphere. 2d and 3D hybrid particle-in-cell simulations show that modes with a range of propagation angles oblique to the magnetic field are excited, providing a ground to understand previous statistical studies of observed foreshock waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Linear Theory of Electromagnetic Ion Beam Instabilities in the Earth’s Forshock: Peter Gary’s Contributions (1981–1991)

We discuss Peter Gary’s contributions to the understanding of the origin and properties of ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves in the Earth’s foreshock during the period when the International Sun Earth Explorer spacecraft (ISEE-1 and -2) provided unique data about the plasma and wave environment in this region. Peter’s work concerning the linear theory of electromagnetic ion beam instabilities is contained in five journal articles and then summarized in a review article, all of which are discussed here. Brief summaries of observations and theory prior to ISEE as well as to later work are also included.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stress Controls Rupture Extent and Maximum Magnitude of Induced Earthquakes

Abstract Seismic hazard forecasts of induced seismicity often require estimates of the maximum possible magnitude ( M max ). Empirical models suggest that maximum magnitudes, or expected number of earthquakes, are related to the volume of injected fluid. We perform a suite of 3D physics‐based earthquake simulations with rate‐ and state‐dependent friction, systematically varying the area of the pressurized region and the amplitude of the initial homogeneous or heterogeneous shear stress. Using the resulting catalog we explore the conditions that result in pressure‐controlled versus runaway ruptures that extend outside the pressurized zone. We find that proposed empirical scaling laws correctly predict M max when shear stresses are further from failure (≤90% of maximum shear stress) and for high amplitude stress fields. Runaway ruptures are observed for higher initial shear stresses and smoother stress fields. In these cases, runaway ruptures occur early after the onset of injection and rarely preceded by foreshock activity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Case Study of Nonresonant Mode 3-s ULF Waves Observed by MMS

The nature of the 3-s ultralow frequency (ULF) wave in the Earth's foreshock region and the associated wave-particle interaction are not yet well understood. In this work, we investigate the 3-s ULF waves using Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) observations. By combining the plasma rest frame wave properties obtained from multiple methods with the instability analysis based on the velocity distribution in the linear wave stage, the ULF wave is determined to be due to the ion/ion nonresonant mode instability. The interaction between the wave and ions is analyzed using the phase relationship between the transverse wave fields and ion velocities and using the longitudinal momentum equation. During the stage when ULF waves have sinusoidal waveforms up to |dB|/|B 0 | ~ 3, where dB is the wave magnetic field and B0 is the background magnetic field, the wave electric fields perpendicular to B 0 do negative work to solar wind ions; along B 0 , a longitudinal electric field develops, but the V × B force is stronger and leads to solar wind ion deceleration. During the same wave stage, the backstreaming beam ions gain energy from the transverse wave fields and get deceleration along B 0 by the longitudinal electric field. The ULF wave leads to electron heating, preferentially in the direction perpendicular to the local magnetic field. Secondary waves are generated within the ULF waveforms, including whistler waves near half of the electron cyclotron frequency, high-frequency electrostatic waves, and magnetosonic whistler waves. The work improves the understanding of the nature of 3-s ULF waves and the associated wave-particle interaction.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automated Classification of Plasma Regions Using 3D Particle Energy Distributions

We investigate the properties of the ion sky maps produced by the Dual Ion Spectrometers (DIS) from the Fast Plasma Investigation (FPI). We have trained a convolutional neural network classifier to predict four regions crossed by the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) on the dayside magnetosphere: solar wind, ion foreshock, magnetosheath, and magnetopause using solely DIS spectrograms. The accuracy of the classifier is urn:x-wiley:21699380:media:jgra56742:jgra56742-math-0001%. We use the classifier to detect mixed plasma regions, in particular to find the bow shock regions. A similar approach can be used to identify the magnetopause crossings and reveal regions prone to magnetic reconnection. Data processing through the trained classifier is fast and efficient and thus can be used for classification for the whole MMS database.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing the evolution of fault properties during the seismic cycle with deep learning

We use seismic waves that pass through the hypocentral region of the 2016 M6.5 Norcia earthquake together with Deep Learning (DL) to distinguish between foreshocks, aftershocks and time-to-failure (TTF). Binary and N-class models defined by TTF correctly identify seismograms in test with > 90% accuracy. We use raw seismic records as input to a 7 layer CNN model to perform the classification. Here we show that DL models successfully distinguish seismic waves pre/post mainshock in accord with lab and theoretical expectations of progressive changes in crack density prior to abrupt change at failure and gradual postseismic recovery. Performance is lower for band-pass filtered seismograms (below 10 Hz) suggesting that DL models learn from the evolution of subtle changes in elastic wave attenuation. Tests to verify that our results indeed provide a proxy for fault properties included DL models trained with the wrong mainshock time and those using seismic waves far from the Norcia mainshock; both show degraded performance. Our results demonstrate that DL models have the potential to track the evolution of fault zone properties during the seismic cycle. If this result is generalizable it could improve earthquake early warning and seismic hazard analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations and seismoacoustic simulations of earthquake-generated infrasound waves in non-epicentral regions

We analysed infrasound waves associated with the Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) that occurred on 2016 September 12, in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. For infrasound wave detection, the Progressive Multichannel Correlation method was applied to the infrasound data set recorded at seven arrays operating in South Korea at epicentral distances ranging from 178 to 472 km. Based on the back-projection method constrained by array-dependent celerity and azimuth deviation models, the source regions were identified in both the epicentral and non-epicentral regions. Remarkably, the non-epicentral secondary sources of this earthquake were located in regions with shallow water depths: (i) the western coastal area in the Yellow Sea and (ii) the shallow ocean basin and bank in the East Sea. The location results obtained from the earthquake could be corroborated through its foreshock (ML 5.1), yielding location results consistent with those of the main shock. The generation of infrasound waves over shallow water depths was fortuitously validated by direct recordings of dominant single-frequency (~0.3 Hz) infrasound waves at close range via temporary sensors near the ocean basin and bank. We interpreted that low-frequency infrasound signals could be generated from interactions among the ocean floor, shallow seawater and atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of seismoacoustic fields to predict ground motions on the seafloor and acoustic transmission efficiency between the water and air interface. The simulations quantified the energy transfer through different media and clarified our observational results. We found that because this solid Earth‒water‒atmosphere coupled air wave has a relatively low frequency (~0.3 Hz), it can survive propagation over long distances compared with high-frequency infrasound waves generated in inland and mountain regions. In this study, we extend our understanding of water‒atmosphere coupling and the monitoring framework for earthquake-associated non-epicentral infrasound waves, encompassing not only inland ground shaking but also shallow sea regions located far from the epicentre.

Earthquake monitoring and test-ban treaty verifica↗