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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Linking remotely sensed ecosystem resilience with forest mortality across the continental United States

Episodes of forest mortality have been observed worldwide associated with climate change, impacting species composition and ecosystem services such as water resources and carbon sequestration. Yet our ability to predict forest mortality remains limited, especially across large scales. Time series of satellite imagery has been used to document ecosystem resilience globally, but it is not clear how well remotely sensed resilience can inform the prediction of forest mortality across continental, multi-biome scales. Here, we leverage forest inventories across the continental United States to systematically assess the potential of ecosystem resilience derived using different data sets and methods to predict forest mortality. Here we found high resilience was associated with low mortality in eastern forests but was associated with high mortality in western regions. The unexpected resilience–mortality relation in western United States may be due to several factors including plant trait acclimation, insect population dynamics, or resource competition. Overall, our results not only supported the opportunity to use remotely sensed ecosystem resilience to predict forest mortality but also highlighted that ecological factors may have crucial influences because they can reverse the sign of the resilience–mortality relationships.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced ecosystem resilience quantifies fine-scale heterogeneity in tropical forest mortality responses to drought

Sensitivity of forest mortality to drought in carbon-dense tropical forests remains fraught with uncertainty, while extreme droughts are predicted to be more frequent and intense. Here, in this study, the potential of temporal autocorrelation of high-frequency variability in Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), an indicator of ecosystem resilience, to predict spatial and temporal variations of forest biomass mortality is evaluated against in situ census observations for 64 site-year combinations in Costa Rican tropical dry forests during the 2015 ENSO drought. Temporal autocorrelation, within the optimal moving window of 24 months, demonstrated robust predictive power for in situ mortality (leave-one- out cross-validation R 2 = 0.54), which allows for estimates of annual biomass mortality patterns at 30 m resolution. Subsequent spatial analysis showed substantial fine-scale heterogeneity of forest mortality patterns, largely driven by drought intensity and ecosystem properties related to plant water use such as forest deciduousness and topography. Highly deciduous forest patches demonstrated much lower mortality sensitivity to drought stress than less deciduous forest patches after elevation was controlled. Our results highlight the potential of high-resolution remote sensing to “fingerprint” forest mortality and the significant role of ecosystem heterogeneity in forest biomass resistance to drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Studying drought-induced forest mortality using high spatiotemporal resolution evapotranspiration data from thermal satellite imaging

Drought can have pervasive and wide-spread impacts to forest health, as evidenced in several severe events occurring over the recent decades. Extensive forest die-off due to drought can impair the ecological functioning of forests, impacting habitat, water yield and quality from forested lands, and altering forest fire dynamics and intensity. Satellite remote sensing provides an effective means for detecting and monitoring spatial patterns of forest mortality over large areas, exploiting free and open long-term image archives available at a range in spatial and temporal resolutions. While remotely sensed surface reflectances and vegetation indices have been widely used to study optical response of forest canopies to drought events, retrievals of evapotranspiration (ET) derived from thermal satellite imagery – particularly at resolutions approaching crown scale - can provide insights into cumulative tree stresses that can incite disease and trigger mortality. In this study, we applied a multi-sensor satellite data fusion approach to estimate daily 30-m resolution ET and an associated Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) to study drought-induced mortality in a temperate forest at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site, located in the central United States. The study covered the period from 2010 to 2014, including an exceptional drought year of 2012. Modeled ET agreed well with eddy flux measurements from the MOFLUX tower, with average monthly relative errors of 15%. Plot-scale ESI, describing temporal anomalies in the ratio of actual-to-reference ET, was used as an index of relative forest health to investigate relationships between forest mortality and drought severity. ESI showed good agreement with observed predawn leaf water potential, especially during the drought year. Furthermore, plot-scale ESI was also correlated with the subsequent year's tree mortality, suggesting the importance of considering the forest health condition prior to drought when studying drought-induced forest impacts. This study demonstrates the utility of multi-year ET remote sensing data at the stand or plot scale as an indicator of forest health and as a predictor of future mortality due to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fire, insect and disease‐caused tree mortalities increased in forests of greater structural diversity during drought

Abstract Structural diversity is an emerging dimension of biodiversity that accounts for size variations in organs among individuals in a community. Previous studies show significant effects of structural diversity on forest growth, but its effects on forest mortality are not known, particularly at a large scale. To address this knowledge gap, we quantified structural diversity using stem structural diversity (SSD) based on both tree diameter and height. We obtained U.S. Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from over 2400 plots across southcentral U.S. forests that have suffered a recent drought. Using data from multiple sampling times, we calculated SSD and compared the relative importance of SSD, species diversity, functional diversity and other stand attributes in determining tree mortalities caused by fire, insects and diseases. We also used FIRETEC, a physics‐based fire model, to test the effect of SSD on canopy consumption by fire. Our results showed that (1) SSD was positively associated with tree mortalities caused by all three disturbances; (2) species richness was negatively associated with insect‐ and disease‐caused mortalities; (3) functional diversity was negatively associated with fire‐ and disease‐caused mortalities and (4) more phylogenetically related species had more similar mortality rates by insect and disease but not fire. Moreover, the FIRETEC model showed increasing canopy consumption by fire in stands with greater SSD. Together, the different tree mortalities during drought associated with SSD more consistently than the other biodiversity metrics were evaluated. Synthesis . Our results suggest that SSD could be considered in modelling forest dynamics and planning management to sustain forest health under disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-scale quantification of anthropogenic, fire, and drought-associated forest disturbances across the continental U.S., 2000–2014

Our understanding of broad-scale forest disturbances under climatic extremes remains incomplete. Drought, as a typical extreme event, is a key driver of forest mortality but there have been no reports on continental-scale quantification of its impact on forest mortality or how it compares to other natural or anthropogenic drivers. Thus, our ability to understand and predict broad-scale carbon cycling in response to changing climate and extreme events is limited. In this study, we applied an attribution approach based on different sources of data to quantify the area and potential carbon loss/transfer in continental U.S. (CONUS) from four types of disturbance: (1) anthropogenic (especially timber harvest); (2) fire; (3) drought-associated; and (4) other from 2000 to 2014. Our results showed that anthropogenic disturbances, fire, drought-associated disturbances, and other disturbances accounted for 54.3, 10.7, 12.7, and 22.3% of total canopy area loss, respectively. Anthropogenic disturbance was the most important driver contributing to 58.1% potential carbon loss/transfer in CONUS for 2000–2014. The potential carbon loss/transfer from natural disturbances (fire, drought, and other) for the same study period accounted for approximately 41.9% of the total loss/transfer from all agents, suggesting that natural disturbances also played a very important role in forest carbon turnover. Potential carbon loss/transfer associated with drought accounted for approximately 11.6% of the total loss/transfer in CONUS, which was of similar magnitude to potential carbon loss/transfer from fire (~11.0%). The other natural disturbance accounted for 19.3% of potential carbon loss/transfer. Our results demonstrated the importance of the impacts of various disturbances on forest carbon stocks at the continental scale, and the drought-associated carbon loss/transfer data developed here could be used for evaluating the performance of predictive models of tree mortality under droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Soil fertility controls on tropical forest productivity and mortality: synthesis and roadmap

Tropical forests are highly diverse and productive ecosystems and store nearly 60% of vegetation biomass. Across the tropics, forests span large gradients of soil fertility, from vast regions situated on highly weathered, ancient geological formations to others on young, nutrient-rich landscapes. Tropical forest productivity, mortality, and biomass all vary systematically across these gradients in soil fertility. Aboveground forest productivity tends to increase with higher soil fertility, while counterintuitively, aboveground biomass does not increase proportionally. This disconnect is likely due to coinciding increases in mortality with higher soil fertility. However, we know relatively little about the mechanisms underlying how soil fertility regulates productivity or mortality – two critical determinants of forest biomass – and even less about how these relationships will shape tropical forest responses to global change. Here, we present a mechanistic framework for understanding how soil fertility affects productivity through photosynthesis, carbon allocation, and carbon-use efficiency; how it modulates mortality via direct and indirect interactions with various drivers of mortality; and how global change may alter these relationships. Based on this synthesis, we outline a roadmap to advance our understanding of tropical forests and improve predictions of their responses to global change.

Wong, Michelle Y [Yale University] (ORCID:00000002↗
NASA NTRS2009

Monitoring 2009 Forest Disturbance Across the Conterminous United States, Based on Near-Real Time and Historical MODIS 250 Meter NDVI Products

This case study shows the promise of computing current season forest disturbance detection products at regional to CONUS scales. Use of the eMODIS expedited product enabled a NRT CONUS forest disturbance detection product, a requirement for an eventual, operational forest threat EWS. The 2009 classification product from this study can be used to quantify the areal extent of forest disturbance across CONUS, although a quantitative accuracy assessment still needs to be completed. However, the results would not include disturbances that occurred after July 27, such as the Station Fire. While not shown here, the project also produced maximum NDVI products for the June 10-July 27 period of each year of the 2000-2009 time frame. These products could be applied to compute forest change products on an annual basis. GIS could then be used to assess disturbance persistence. Such follow-on work could lead to attribution of year in which a disturbance occurred. These products (e.g., Figures 6 and 7) may also be useful for assessing forest change associated with climate change, such as carbon losses from bark beetle-induced forest mortality in the Western United States. Other MODIS phenological products are being assessed for aiding forest monitoring needs of the EWS, including cumulative NDVI products (Figure 10).

Spruce, J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tree drought physiology: critical research questions and strategies for mitigating climate change effects on forests

Droughts of increasing severity and frequency are a primary cause of forest mortality associated with climate change. Yet, fundamental knowledge gaps regarding the complex physiology of trees limit the development of more effective management strategies to mitigate drought effects on forests. Here, in this work, we highlight some of the basic research needed to better understand tree drought physiology and how new technologies and interdisciplinary approaches can be used to address them. Our discussion focuses on how trees change wood development to mitigate water stress, hormonal responses to drought, genetic variation underlying adaptive drought phenotypes, how trees ‘remember’ prior stress exposure, and how symbiotic soil microbes affect drought response. Next, we identify opportunities for using research findings to enhance or develop new strategies for managing drought effects on forests, ranging from matching genotypes to environments, to enhancing seedling resilience through nursery treatments, to landscape-scale monitoring and predictions. We conclude with a discussion of the need for co-producing research with land managers and extending research to forests in critical ecological regions beyond the temperate zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for Regier et al. (2025), "Short-term experimental flooding impacts soil biogeochemistry but not aboveground vegetation in a coastal forest"

Rising sea levels and intensifying storms increase flooding pressure on coastal forests, but the mechanisms that drive coastal forest mortality remain unclear. This study used an ecosystem-scale manipulation (TEMPEST, Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments) to simulate hurricane-level flooding of a coastal forest and explore the individual and interactive impacts of inundation and salinity. This dataset comprises the results reported by Regier et al. (2025) in their paper "Short-term experimental flooding impacts soil biogeochemistry but not aboveground vegetation in a coastal forest." It consists of measurements of:- Belowground conductance- Soil dissolved oxygen and redox- Soil and tree greenhouse gas fluxes- Leaf photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and intercellular carbon dioxide- Sap flux- Soil volumetric water content and electrical conductivityAll files are plain-text CSV (comma separated value) and no special software is required to read them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming

Abstract Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving CLM5.0 Biomass and Carbon Exchange Across the Western United States Using a Data Assimilation System

The Western United States is dominated by natural lands that play a critical role for carbon balance, water quality, and timber reserves. This region is also particularly vulnerable to forest mortality from drought, insect attack, and wildfires, thus requiring constant monitoring to assess ecosystem health. Carbon monitoring techniques are challenged by the complex mountainous terrain, thus there is an opportunity for data assimilation systems that combine land surface models and satellite-derived observations to provide improved carbon monitoring. Here, we use the Data Assimilation Research Testbed to adjust the Community Land Model (CLM5.0) with remotely sensed observations of leaf area and above-ground biomass. The adjusted simulation significantly reduced the above-ground biomass and leaf area, leading to a reduction in both photosynthesis and respiration fluxes. The reduction in the carbon fluxes mostly offset, thus both the adjusted and free simulation projected a weak carbon sink to the land. This result differed from a separate observation-constrained model (FLUXCOM) that projected strong carbon uptake to the land. Simulation diagnostics suggested water limitation had an important influence upon the magnitude and spatial pattern of carbon uptake through photosynthesis. We recommend that additional observations important for water cycling (e.g., snow water equivalent, land surface temperature) be included to improve the veracity of the spatial pattern in carbon uptake. Furthermore, the assimilation system should be enhanced to maximize the number of the simulated state variables that are adjusted, especially those related to the recommended observed quantities including water cycling and soil carbon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exacerbated drought impacts on global ecosystems due to structural overshoot

Vegetation dynamics are affected not only by the concurrent climate but also by memory-induced lagged responses. For example, favourable climate in the past could stimulate vegetation growth to surpass the ecosystem carrying capacity, leaving an ecosystem vulnerable to climate stresses. This phenomenon, known as structural overshoot, could potentially contribute to worldwide drought stress and forest mortality but the magnitude of the impact is poorly known due to the dynamic nature of overshoot and complex influencing timescales. Here, we use a dynamic statistical learning approach to identify and characterize ecosystem structural overshoot globally and quantify the associated drought impacts. We find that structural overshoot contributed to around 11% of drought events during 1981-2015 and is often associated with compound extreme drought and heat, causing faster vegetation declines and greater drought impacts compared to non-overshoot related droughts. The fraction of droughts related to overshoot is strongly related to mean annual temperature, with biodiversity, aridity and land cover as secondary factors. These results highlight the large role vegetation dynamics play in drought development and suggest that soil water depletion due to warming-induced future increases in vegetation could cause more frequent and stronger overshoot droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The eco-evolutionary role of fire in shaping terrestrial ecosystems

Fire is an inherently evolutionary process, even though much more emphasis has been given to ecological responses of plants and their associated communities to fire. Here, in this work, we synthesize contributions to a Special Feature entitled ‘Fire as a dynamic ecological and evolutionary force’ and place them in a broader context of fire research. Topics covered in this Special Feature include a perspective on the impacts of novel fire regimes on differential forest mortality, discussions on new approaches to investigate vegetation-fire feedbacks and resulting plant syndromes, synthesis of fire impacts on plant–fungal interactions, and a meta-analysis of arthropod community responses to fire. We conclude by suggesting pathways forward to better understand the ecological and evolutionary consequences of fire. These include developing ecological and evolutionary databases for fire ecology, integrating hierarchical genetic structure or phylogenetic structure, and developing new experimental frameworks that limit context-dependent outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stable Water Isotope Data for the East River Watershed, Colorado (2014-2025)

The stable water isotope data for the East River Watershed, Colorado, consists of delta2H (hydrogen) and delta18O (oxygen) values from samples collected at multiple, long-term monitoring sites including streams, groundwater wells, springs, and a precipitation collector used to establish a local meteoric water line (LMWL) for the watershed. These locations represent important and/or unique end-member locations for which stable isotope values can be diagnostic of the connection between precipitation inputs as snow and rain and riverine export. Such locations include drainages underline entirely or largely by shale bedrock, land covered dominated by conifers, aspens, or meadows, and drainages impacted by historic mining activity and the presence of naturally mineralized rock. Developing a long-term record of water isotope values from a diversity of environments is a critical component of quantifying the impacts of both climate change and discrete climate perturbations, such as drought, forest mortality, and wildfire, on water export. Such data may be combined with stream gaging stations co-located at each surface water monitoring site to relate seasonal variations in water export to their stable isotopic signature. Data for liquid water delta2H and delta18O values are reported in units of parts per thousand (per-mil; ‰). This data package contains (1) a zip file (isotope_data_2014-2025.zip) containing a total of 95 files: 96 data files of isotope data from across the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) which is reported in .csv files per location and a locations.csv (1 file) with latitude and longitude for each location; (2) a file-level metadata (v6_20260901_flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (3) a data dictionary (v6_20260901_dd.csv) file that contains terms/column_headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. Missing values within the anion data files are noted as either "-9999" or "0.0" for not detectable (N.D.) data. There are a total of 43 locations containing isotope data. Update on 2022-06-10: versioned updates to this dataset was made along with these changes: (1) updated isotope data for all locations up to 2021-12-31 and (2) the addition of the file-level metadata (flmd.csv) and data dictionary (dd.csv) were added to comply with the File-Level Metadata Reporting Format. Update on 2022-09-09: Updates were made to reporting format specific files (file-level metadata and data dictionary) to correct swapped file names, add additional details on metadata descriptions on both files, add a header_row column to enable parsing, and add version number and date to file names (v2_20220909_flmd.csv and v2_20220909_dd.csv). Update on 2023-08-08: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available anion data was added, up until 2023-03-13. The file level metadata and data dictionary files were updated to reflect the additional data added. Update on 2024-03-11: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available anion data was added, up until 2024-02-19. Further, revisions to the data files were made to remove incorrect data points (from 1970 and 2001). The reporting format specific files were updated to reflect the additional data added. Update on 2025-05-15: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available isotope data was added, up until the end of WY2024 (September 30, 2024). International Generic Sample Numbers (IGSNs), when registered, were added to the data files. The reporting format specific files were updated to reflect the additional data added. Update on 2026-09-01: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available isotope data was added, up until the end of WY2025 (September 30, 2025).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Anion Data for the East River Watershed, Colorado (2014-2025)

The anion data for the East River Watershed, Colorado, consist of fluoride, chloride, sulfate, nitrate, and phosphate concentrations collected at multiple, long-term monitoring sites that include stream, groundwater, and spring sampling locations. These locations represent important and/or unique end-member locations for which solute concentrations can be diagnostic of the connection between terrestrial and aquatic systems. Such locations include drainages underlined entirely or largely by shale bedrock, land covered dominated by conifers, aspens, or meadows, and drainages impacted by historic mining activity and the presence of naturally mineralized rock. Developing a long-term record of solute concentrations from a diversity of environments is a critical component of quantifying the impacts of both climate change and discrete climate perturbations, such as drought, forest mortality, and wildfire, on the riverine export of multiple anionic species. Such data may be combined with stream gauging stations co-located at each monitoring site to directly quantify the seasonal and annual mass flux of these anionic species out of the watershed. This data package contains (1) a zip file (anion_data_2014_2025.zip) containing a total of 386 files: 387 data files of anion data from across the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) which is reported in .csv files per location and a locations.csv (1 file) with latitude and longitude for each location; (2) a file-level metadata (v7_20260901_flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; (3) a data dictionary (v7_20260901_dd.csv) file that contains terms/column_headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type; and (4) a anion MDL fact sheet (anion_MDLs_202608 in PDF and docx formats). Missing values within the anion data files are noted as either "-9999" or "0.0" for not detectable (N.D.) data. There are a total of 47 locations containing anion data. Update on 2022-06-10: versioned updates to this dataset was made along with these changes: (1) updated anion data for all locations up to 2021-12-31, (2) removal of units from column headers in datafiles, (3) added row underneath headers to contain units of variables, (4) restructure of units to comply with CSV reporting format requirements, and (5) the addition of the file-level metadata (flmd.csv) and data dictionary (dd.csv) were added to comply with the File-Level Metadata Reporting Format. Update on 2022-09-09: Updates were made to reporting format specific files (file-level metadata and data dictionary) to correct swapped file names, add additional details on metadata descriptions on both files, add a header_row column to enable parsing, and add version number and date to file names (v2_20220909_flmd.csv and v2_20220909_dd.csv). Update on 2022-12-20: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. Conversion issues affecting ER-PLM locations for anion data was resolved for the data files. Additionally, the flmd and dd files were updated to reflect the updated versions of these files. Available data was added up until 2022-03-14. Update on 2023-08-08: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available anion data was added, up until 2023-05-19. The file level metadata and data dictionary files were updated to reflect the additional data added. Update on 2024-03-11: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available anion data was added, up until 2023-09-11. Further, revisions to the data files were made to remove incorrect data points (from 1970 and 2001). The reporting format specific files were updated to reflect the additional data added. Update on 2025-05-15: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available anion data was added, up until the end of WY2024 (September 30, 2024). International Generic Sample Numbers (IGSNs), when registered, were added to the data files. The reporting format specific files were updated to reflect the additional data added. Update on 2026-09-01: Updates were made to both the data files and reporting format specific files. New available anion data was added, up until the end of WY2025 (September 30, 2025). An anion MDL document was included in this update.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Automated Approach to Map the History of Forest Disturbance from Insect Mortality and Harvest with Landsat Time-Series Data

Forests contain a majority of the aboveground carbon (C) found in ecosystems, and understanding biomass lost from disturbance is essential to improve our C-cycle knowledge. Our study region in the Wisconsin and Minnesota Laurentian Forest had a strong decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2007, observed with the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). To understand the potential role of disturbances in the terrestrial C-cycle, we developed an algorithm to map forest disturbances from either harvest or insect outbreak for Landsat time-series stacks. We merged two image analysis approaches into one algorithm to monitor forest change that included: (1) multiple disturbance index thresholds to capture clear-cut harvest; and (2) a spectral trajectory-based image analysis with multiple confidence interval thresholds to map insect outbreak. We produced 20 maps and evaluated classification accuracy with air-photos and insect air-survey data to understand the performance of our algorithm. We achieved overall accuracies ranging from 65% to 75%, with an average accuracy of 72%. The producer's and user's accuracy ranged from a maximum of 32% to 70% for insect disturbance, 60% to 76% for insect mortality and 82% to 88% for harvested forest, which was the dominant disturbance agent. Forest disturbances accounted for 22% of total forested area (7349 km2). Our algorithm provides a basic approach to map disturbance history where large impacts to forest stands have occurred and highlights the limited spectral sensitivity of Landsat time-series to outbreaks of defoliating insects. We found that only harvest and insect mortality events can be mapped with adequate accuracy with a non-annual Landsat time-series. This limited our land cover understanding of NDVI decline drivers. We demonstrate that to capture more subtle disturbances with spectral trajectories, future observations must be temporally dense to distinguish between type and frequency in heterogeneous landscapes.

Forest↗
NASA NTRS2013

Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are computed versus the previous 1, previous 3, and all previous years in the MODIS record for a given 24 day interval. Other "weekly" forest change products include one computed using an adaptive length compositing method for quicker detection of disturbances, two others that adjust for seasonal fluctuations in normal vegetation phenology (e.g., early versus late springs). This overall approach enables forest disturbance dynamics from a variety of regionally evident biotic and abiotic forest disturbances to be viewed and assessed through the calendar year. The change products are also being utilized for forest change trend analysis and for developing regional forest overstory mortality products. ForWarn's forest change products are used to alert forest health specialists about new forest disturbances. Such alerts are also typically based on available Landsat, aerial, and ground data as well as communications with forest health specialists and previous experience. ForWarn products have been used to detect and track many types of regional disturbances to multiple forest types, including defoliation from caterpillars and severe storms, as well as mortality from both biotic and abiotic agents (e.g., bark beetles, drought, fire, anthropogenic clearing). ForWarn offers products that could be combined with other geospatial data on forest biomass to assess forest disturbance carbon impacts within the conterminous US.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Short-term experimental flooding impacts soil biogeochemistry but not aboveground vegetation in a coastal forest

Rising sea levels and intensifying storms increase flooding pressure on coastal forests, triggering tree mortality, ecosystem transitions, and changes to the coastal carbon cycle. However, the mechanisms that drive coastal forest mortality remain elusive due to the complex interplay between belowground and aboveground processes during flooding disturbances and limitations of observations typically reported in coastal forest mortality studies. We used an ecosystem-scale manipulation to simulate hurricane-level flooding of a coastal forest and explore the individual and interactive impacts of inundation and salinity. Monitoring real-time soil conditions and tree physiological responses, we observed consistent impacts on soil biogeochemistry aligned with belowground drivers of tree mortality, but no consistent responses in aboveground vegetation immediately following flooding. Our findings provide empirically based insight into the earliest stages of a hypothesized forest mortality spiral and offer critical benchmarks for predicting coastal forest resilience in the face of accelerating climate change.

coastal forests↗