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At least 19 records

Extended forward sensitivity analysis of one-dimensional isothermal flow

Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification is an important part of nuclear safety analysis. In this work, forward sensitivity analysis is used to compute solution sensitivities on 1-D fluid flow equations typical of those found in system level codes. Time step sensitivity analysis is included as a method for determining the accumulated error from time discretization. The ability to quantify numerical error arising from the time discretization is a unique and important feature of this method. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time step with other physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time step forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step convergence studies that are a key part of code verification with much less computational cost. One well-defined benchmark problem with manufactured solutions is utilized to verify the method; another test isothermal flow problem is used to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis process. Through these sample problems, the paper shows the feasibility and potential of using the forward sensitivity analysis method to quantify uncertainty in input parameters and time step size for a 1-D system-level thermal-hydraulic safety code. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

This paper presents the extended forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time and space steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time and space steps forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step and grid convergence study with much less computational cost. Two well-defined benchmark problems with manufactured solutions are utilized to demonstrate the method.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Extended Forward Sensitivity Analysis for Uncertainty Quantification

Verification and validation (V&V) are playing more important roles to quantify uncertainties and realize high fidelity simulations in engineering system analyses, such as transients happened in a complex nuclear reactor system. Traditional V&V in the reactor system analysis focused more on the validation part or did not differentiate verification and validation. The traditional approach to uncertainty quantification is based on a 'black box' approach. The simulation tool is treated as an unknown signal generator, a distribution of inputs according to assumed probability density functions is sent in and the distribution of the outputs is measured and correlated back to the original input distribution. The 'black box' method mixes numerical errors with all other uncertainties. It is also not efficient to perform sensitivity analysis. Contrary to the 'black box' method, a more efficient sensitivity approach can take advantage of intimate knowledge of the simulation code. In these types of approaches equations for the propagation of uncertainty are constructed and the sensitivities are directly solved for as variables in the simulation. This paper presents the forward sensitivity analysis as a method to help uncertainty qualification. By including time step and potentially spatial step as special sensitivity parameters, the forward sensitivity method is extended as one method to quantify numerical errors. Note that by integrating local truncation errors over the whole system through the forward sensitivity analysis process, the generated time step and spatial step sensitivity information reflect global numerical errors. The discretization errors can be systematically compared against uncertainties due to other physical parameters. This extension makes the forward sensitivity method a much more powerful tool to help uncertainty qualification. By knowing the relative sensitivity of time and space steps with other interested physical parameters, the simulation is allowed to run at optimized time and space steps without affecting the confidence of the physical parameter sensitivity results. The time and space steps forward sensitivity analysis method can also replace the traditional time step and grid convergence study with much less computational cost. Several well defined benchmark problems with manufactured solutions are utilized to demonstrate the extended forward sensitivity analysis method. All the physical solutions, parameter sensitivity solutions, even the time step sensitivity in one case, have analytical forms, which allows the verification to be performed in the strictest sense.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the dual advantage of placing observations through forward sensitivity analysis

The four-dimensional variational data assimilation methodology for assimilating noisy observations into a deterministic model has been the workhorse in forecasting centres for over three decades. While this method provides a computationally efficient framework for dynamic data assimilation, it is largely silent on the important question concerning the minimum number and placement of observations. To answer this question, we demonstrate the dual advantage of placing the observations where the square of the sensitivity of the model solution with respect to the unknown control variables, called forward sensitivities, attains its maximum. By following this approach, we can force the observability Gramian to be of full rank, which in turn guarantees efficient recovery of the optimal values of the control variables, which is the first of the two advantages of this strategy. We further show that the proposed strategy of placing observations has another inherent optimality: the square of the sensitivity of the optimal estimates of the control with respect to the observations (used to obtain these estimates) attains its minimum value, a second advantage that is a direct consequence of the above strategy for placing observations. Our analytical framework and numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear systems confirm the effectiveness of our proposed strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Forward sensitivity analysis and mode dependent control for closure modeling of Galerkin systems

Model reduction by projection-based approaches is often associated with losing some of the important features that contribute towards the dynamics of the retained scales. As a result, a mismatch occurs between the predicted trajectories of the original system and the truncated one. We put forth a framework to apply a continuous time control signal in the latent space of the reduced order model (ROM) to account for the effect of truncation. We set the control input using parameterized models by following energy transfer principles. Our methodology relies on observing the system behavior in the physical space and using the projection operator to restrict the feedback signal into the latent space. Then, we leverage the forward sensitivity method (FSM) to derive relationships between the feedback and the desired mode-dependent control. We test the performance of the proposed approach using two test cases, corresponding to viscous Burgers and vortex merger problems at high Reynolds number. Results show that the ROM trajectory with the applied FSM control closely matches its target values in both the data-dense and data-sparse regimes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Differential methods for assessing sensitivity in biological models

Differential sensitivity analysis is indispensable in fitting parameters, understanding uncertainty, and forecasting the results of both thought and lab experiments. Although there are many methods currently available for performing differential sensitivity analysis of biological models, it can be difficult to determine which method is best suited for a particular model. In this paper, we explain a variety of differential sensitivity methods and assess their value in some typical biological models. First, we explain the mathematical basis for three numerical methods: adjoint sensitivity analysis, complex perturbation sensitivity analysis, and forward mode sensitivity analysis. We then carry out four instructive case studies. (a) The CARRGO model for tumor-immune interaction highlights the additional information that differential sensitivity analysis provides beyond traditional naive sensitivity methods, (b) the deterministic SIR model demonstrates the value of using second-order sensitivity in refining model predictions, (c) the stochastic SIR model shows how differential sensitivity can be attacked in stochastic modeling, and (d) a discrete birth-death-migration model illustrates how the complex perturbation method of differential sensitivity can be generalized to a broader range of biological models. Finally, we compare the speed, accuracy, and ease of use of these methods. We find that forward mode automatic differentiation has the quickest computational time, while the complex perturbation method is the simplest to implement and the most generalizable.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Efficient Adjoint Computation of Hybrid Systems of Differential Algebraic Equations with Applications in Power Systems

Sensitivity analysis is an important tool to describe power system dynamic behavior in response to parameter variations. It is a central component in preventive and corrective control applications. The existing approaches for sensitivity calculations, namely, finite-difference and forward sensitivity analysis, require a computational effort that increases linearly with the number of sensitivity parameters. In this work, we investigate, implement, and test a discrete adjoint sensitivity approach whose computational effort is effectively independent of the number of sensitivity parameters. The proposed approach is highly efficient for calculating trajectory sensitivities of larger systems and is consistent, within machine precision, with the function whose sensitivity we are seeking. This is an essential feature for use in optimization applications. Moreover, our approach includes a consistent treatment of systems with switching, such as DC exciters, by deriving and implementing the adjoint jump conditions that arise from state and time-dependent discontinuities. The accuracy and the computational efficiency of the proposed approach are demonstrated in comparison with the forward sensitivity analysis approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Discrete Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis of Hybrid Dynamical Systems With Switching [Discrete Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis of Hybrid Dynamical Systems]

Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for describing power system dynamic behavior in response to parameter variations. It is a central component in preventive and corrective control applications. The existing approaches for sensitivity calculations, namely, finite-difference and forward sensitivity analysis, require a computational effort that increases linearly with the number of sensitivity parameters. In this paper, we investigate, implement, and test a discrete adjoint sensitivity approach whose computational effort is effectively independent of the number of sensitivity parameters. The proposed approach is highly efficient for calculating sensitivities of larger systems and is consistent, within machine precision, with the function whose sensitivity we are seeking. This is an essential feature for use in optimization applications. Moreover, our approach includes a consistent treatment of systems with switching, such as dc exciters, by deriving and implementing the adjoint jump conditions that arise from state-dependent and time-dependent switchings. The accuracy and the computational efficiency of the proposed approach are demonstrated in comparison with the forward sensitivity analysis approach. In conclusion, this paper focuses primarily on the power system dynamics, but the approach is general and can be applied to hybrid dynamical systems in a broader range of fields.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Generalized Perturbation Theory-Free Sensitivity Analysis for Eigenvalue Problems

Generalized perturbation theory (GPT) has been recognized as the most computationally efficient approach for performing sensitivity analysis for models with many input parameters, which renders forward sensitivity analysis computationally overwhelming. In critical systems, GPT involves the solution of the adjoint form of the eigenvalue problem with a response-dependent fixed source. Although conceptually simple to implement, most neutronics codes that can solve the adjoint eigenvalue problem do not have a GPT capability unless envisioned during code development. We introduce in this manuscript a reduced-order modeling approach based on subspace methods that requires the solution of the fundamental adjoint equations but allows the generation of response sensitivities without the need to set up GPT equations, and that provides an estimate of the error resulting from the reduction. Moreover, the new approach solves the eigenvalue problem independently of the number or type of responses. This allows for an efficient computation of sensitivities when many responses are required. This paper introduces the theory and implementation details of the GPT-free approach and describes how the errors could be estimated as part of the analysis. The applicability is demonstrated by estimating the variations in the flux distribution everywhere in the phase space of a fast critical sphere and a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor prismatic lattice. The variations generated by the GPT-free approach are benchmarked to the exact variations generated by direct forward perturbations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Use of Forward Sensititvity Analysis Method to Improve Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) Methodology

Since the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology was proposed about two decades ago, it has been widely used for new reactor designs and existing LWRs power uprates. In spite of these huge successes, CSAU has been criticized for the need of further improvement, focusing on two main issues - lack of objectiveness and high cost. With the effort to develop next generation safety analysis codes, new opportunities appear to take advantage of new numerical methods, better physical models, and modern uncertainty qualification methods. Forward sensitivity analysis (FSA) directly solves the partial differential equations for parameter sensitivities. Moreover, our work shows that time and space steps can be treated as special sensitivity parameters so that numerical errors can be directly compared with physical uncertainties. When the FSA is implemented in a new advanced system analysis code, CSAU could be significantly improved by quantifying numerical errors and allowing a quantitative PIRT (Q-PIRT) to reduce subjective judgement and improving efficiency. This paper will review the issues related to the current CSAU implementations, introduce FSA, show a simple example to perform FSA, and discuss potential improvements on CSAU with FSA. Finally, the general research direction and requirements to use FSA in an advanced system analysis code will be discussed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Analytical Sensitivity Analysis of a Spent Nuclear Fuel Cask

Here, we report nuclear science and engineering is a field increasingly dominated by computational studies resulting from increasingly powerful computational tools. As a result, analytical studies, which previously pioneered nuclear engineering, are increasingly viewed as secondary or unnecessary. However, analytical solutions to reduced-fidelity models can provide important information concerning the underlying physics of a problem and aid in guiding computational studies. Similarly, there is increased interest in sensitivity analysis studies. These studies commonly use computational tools. However, providing a complementary sensitivity study of relevant analytical models can lead to a deeper analysis of a problem. This work provides the analytical sensitivity analysis of the one-dimensional (1D) cylindrical mono-energetic neutron diffusion equation using the forward sensitivity analysis procedure (FSAP) developed by Cacuci. Further, these results are applied to a reduced-fidelity model of a spent nuclear fuel cask, demonstrating how computational analysis might be improved with a complementary analytic sensitivity analysis.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Periodic Material-Based Seismic Base Isolators for Small Modular Reactors

Important structures such as nuclear power plants should experience very little vibrations in order to maintain the safety of the nuclear facilities during seismic events. Protection of these structures by seismic isolators requires the isolators to provide seismic isolation irrespective of the direction of excitations and to develop a stable response without rocking. Conventional seismic isolation systems, however, can only fulfill partial requirements for the seismic protection. This study adopts the principle of periodic materials for seismic isolation. These materials exhibit unique properties of frequency band gaps, where incoming waves with frequencies falling inside the frequency band gaps are forbidden. The new isolation systems, known as periodic foundations, function both as a structural foundation to support the gravitational weight of the superstructure and also as a seismic isolator. The isolation mechanism, hypothetically, can easily fulfill all the requirements for seismic protection of the critical facilities. This study focuses on the design of one-dimensional (1D) and three-dimensional (3D) periodic foundations for seismic isolation of small modular reactor (SMR) buildings. The theoretical study was first conducted to reveal the fundamental behavior of periodic foundations. Then global sensitivity analysis was utilized to study the effect of design parameters on the frequency band gaps. In addition, simple straight-forward design equations based on the sensitivity analysis are proposed for the design of periodic foundations. Utilizing the proposed equations, prototypes of 1D and 3D periodic foundations were designed to isolate an SMR building. Scaled models were fabricated and experimentally tested to validate the hypothesis and design. The periodic foundation structural systems were tested under various input waves, including seismic waves, in the horizontal and vertical directions and the torsional mode. The shake table test results show that the periodic foundations can reduce the acceleration response of the SMR building up to 90% in the horizontal direction and the torsional mode. As much as a 40% response reduction in the vertical direction is also observed. Moreover, the periodic foundation-isolated structure exhibited stable response with negligible rocking on the structure. This study proved the capability of periodic foundations to enhance the seismic safety of critical structures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

ReactionMechanismSimulator.jl: A modern approach to chemical kinetic mechanism simulation and analysis

Abstract We present ReactionMechanismSimulator.jl (RMS), a modern differentiable software for the simulation and analysis of chemical kinetic mechanisms, including multiphase systems. RMS has already been applied to problems in combustion, pyrolysis, polymers, pharmaceuticals, catalysis, and electrocatalysis. RMS is written in Julia, making it easy to develop and allowing it to take advantage of Julia's extensive numerical computing ecosystem. In addition to its extensive library of optimized analytic Jacobians, RMS can generate and use Jacobians computed using automatic differentiation and symbolically generated analytic Jacobians. RMS is demonstrated to be faster than Cantera and Chemkin in several benchmarks. RMS also implements an extensive set of features for analyzing chemical mechanisms, including a library of easy‐to‐call plotting functions, molecular structure resolved flux diagram generation, crash analysis, traditional sensitivity analysis, transitory sensitivity analysis, and an automatic mechanism analysis toolkit. RMS implements efficient adjoint and parallel forward sensitivity analyses. We also demonstrate the ease of adding new features to RMS.

Johnson, Matthew S.↗

CO2 Push-Pull Dual (Conjugate) Faults Injection Simulations

This submission contains datasets and a final manuscript associated with a project simulating carbon dioxide push-pull into a conjugate fault system modeled after Dixie Valley- sensitivity analysis of significant parameters and uncertainty prediction by data-worth analysis. Datasets include: (1) Forward simulation runs of standard cases (push & pull phases), (2) Local sensitivity analyses (push & pull phases), and (3) Data-worth analysis (push & pull phases).

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Dark Photon Search at BABAR

Presented is the current progress of a search for the signature of a dark photon or new particle using the BaBar data set. We search for the processes e + e - → γ ISR A', A' → e + e - and e + e - → γ ISR γ,γ → A', A' → e + e - , where γ ISR is an initial state radiated photon of energy E γ >= 1 GeV. Twenty-five sets of Monte Carlo, simulating e + e - collisions at an energy of 10.58 GeV, were produced with different values of the A' mass ranging from 100 MeV to 9.5 GeV. The mass resolution is calculated based on Monte Carlo simulations. We implement ROOT's Toolkit for Multivariate Analysis (TMVA), a machine learning tool that allows us to evaluate the signal character of events based on many of discriminating variables. TMVA training is conducted with samples of Monte Carlo as signal and a small portion of Run 6 as background. The multivariate analysis produces additional cuts to separate signal and background. The signal efficiency and sensitivity are calculated. The analysis will move forward to fit the background and scan the residuals for the narrow resonance peak of a new particle.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

PyApprox: A software package for sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification and surrogate modeling

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of numerical models such as those used in the earth, environmental and engineering sciences. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent a wide range of methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of new or existing algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. Here, this paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗