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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

HydroBio: Hydropower Capacity and Freshwater Biodiversity in Conterminous United States Sub-basins

This dataset summarizes existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity at the sub-basin level throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). It contains descriptive information regarding each sub-basin (e.g., 8-digit hydrologic unit code identifier, name, states, and size) along with sub-basin-level summaries of: 1) existing hydropower capacity (MW), 2) potential nominal non-powered dam (NPD) capacity (MW), 3) potential capacity of new stream reach development (NSD) (MW), and 4) freshwater biodiversity, including the total richness of fish, crayfish, and mussels and metrics that account for how rare and threatened those species tend to be. Hydropower data were obtained from Oak Ridge National Laboratory data resources (Existing Hydropower Assets, Non-Powered Dam Technical Potential, and New Stream Reach Development). Freshwater biodiversity data were obtained from NatureServe. Sub-basin characteristic information was obtained from the United States Geological Survey. Additionally, long data that provide lists of unique elements within each sub-basin for each constituent data resource (e.g., NatureServe, Existing Hydropower Assets) are provided to enhance dataset utility for users. The dataset provides, for the first time, a national-level assessment of existing and potential hydropower capacity in the context of freshwater biodiversity and is a valuable resource for stakeholders tasked with providing affordable, reliable energy to the American public while maintaining or enhancing invaluable freshwater resources. The dataset contains six data files in comma separated (*.csv) format that are within a zipped file.

Bozeman, Bryan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2025

HydroFish: freshwater fish co-occurrence with hydropower plants and non-powered dams in conterminous United States sub-basins

The HydroFish dataset lists all existing hydropower plants (EHAs) and non-powered dams (NPDs; ≥ 0.001 MW potential nominal capacity), delineates the hydrologic sub-basins in which they are situated, and then lists all freshwater fish species reported to occur in those sub-basins. This dataset was compiled using the HydroBio dataset (https://hydrosource.ornl.gov/data/datasets/hydrobio/) and contains 24 total variables that describe hydrologic sub-basins, each unique EHA (plant ID and name, geographic coordinates, permit type, capacity, etc.) and NPD (ID value, known names, geographic coordinates, and estimated potential nominal capacity), and freshwater fish species in the sub-basin (common and scientific name, origin, and migratory and threat status). The HydroBio dataset was built using Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Existing Hydropower Assets Dataset (2024 version) and Non-powered Dam Technical Potential Dataset (2024 version), and NatureServe’s fish species distribution dataset (2023 version). The dataset also contains summary variables that report the unique number of EHAs, NPDs, and freshwater fish species per sub-basin. The HydroFish dataset contains two unique data files: 1) a .csv metadata file describing the dataset variables, and 2) a .csv data file containing the actual dataset. Note that there may be many rows per unique existing hydropower plant or non-powered dam given that distinct species are listed per existing plant or NPD per sub-basin. The dataset is downloadable as a zip file containing the metadata and dataset files.

Bozeman, Bryan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal changes in the drivers of water physico-chemistry variability of a small freshwater tidal river

Where rivers meet the sea, tides can exert a physical and chemical influence on the lower reaches of a river. How tidal dynamics in these tidal river reaches interact with upstream hydrological drivers such as storm rainfall, which ultimately determines the quantity and composition of material transferred from watersheds to estuaries, is currently unknown. We monitored a small freshwater tidal river in the Pacific Northwest, USA in high resolution over one year to evaluate the relative importance of tides versus upstream hydrological flows (i.e., base flow and precipitation events) on basic physico-chemical parameters (pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, specific conductivity, and temperature), and how these interactions relate to the downstream estuary. Tidal variability and diurnal cycles (i.e. solar radiation) dominated water physico-chemical variability in the summer, but the influence of these drivers was overshadowed by storm-driven sharp pulses in river physico-chemistry during the remainder of the year. Within such events, we found incidences of counterclockwise hysteresis of pH, counterclockwise hysteresis of dissolved oxygen, and clockwise hysteresis of turbidity, although systematic trends were not observed across events. The dominance of storm rainfall in the river’s physico-chemistry dynamics, and similar pulses of decreased pH observed in adjacent estuarine waters, suggest that the linkage between tidal streams and the broader system is variable throughout the year. High-frequency monitoring of tidal river biogeochemistry is therefore crucial to enable the assessment of how the relative strength of these drivers may change with future sea level rise and altered precipitation patterns to modulate biogeochemical dynamics across the land-ocean-atmosphere continuum.

aquatic↗
DOE OSTI2020

Plant‐mediated methane transport in emergent and floating‐leaved species of a temperate freshwater mineral‐soil wetland

Abstract Methane flux from freshwater mineral‐soil (FWMS) wetlands and its variability among sites is largely modulated by plant‐mediated transport. However, plant‐mediated transport processes are rarely resolved in land surface models and are poorly parametrized for plants commonly found in FWMS wetlands. Here, relationships between methane flux and CO 2 uptake, as well as plant conductance of methane were evaluated for three plant species and two characteristic functional types: emergent (narrow‐leaved cattail) and floating‐leaved (American lotus and water lily). We found significant but contrasting correlations between methane flux and CO 2 uptake in cattails ( r 2 = 0.51, slope = −0.16, during morning) and water lily ( r 2 = 0.32, slope = 0.064, after midday). This relationship was not significant in American lotus, showing that stomata regulation of methane fluxes is species‐specific and not generalizable across the floating‐leaved plant functional type. Conductance of methane per leaf area showed distinct seasonal dynamics across species. Conductance was similar among the floating‐leaved species (6.2 × 10 −3 m d −1 in lotus and 7.2 × 10 −3 m d −1 in water lily) and higher than conductance in the emergent species (2.7 × 10 −3 m d −1 ). Our results provide direct observations of plant conductance rates and identify the vegetation parameters (leaf area, stomatal conductance) that modify them. Our results further suggest that models of methane emissions from FWMS should parameterize plant‐mediated transport in different plant functional types, scaled by leaf area and with variable seasonal phenological dynamics, and consider possible species‐specific mechanisms that control methane transport through plants.

Villa, Jorge A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Formation and fate of freshwater on an ice floe in the Central Arctic

The melt of snow and sea ice during the Arctic summer is a significant source of relatively fresh meltwater. The fate of this freshwater, whether in surface melt ponds or thin layers underneath the ice and in leads, impacts atmosphere–ice–ocean interactions and their subsequent coupled evolution. Here, we combine analyses of datasets from the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (June–July 2020) for a process study on the formation and fate of sea ice freshwater on ice floes in the Central Arctic. Our freshwater budget analyses suggest that a relatively high fraction (58 %) is derived from surface melt. Additionally, the contribution from stored precipitation (snowmelt) outweighs by 5 times the input from in situ summer precipitation (rain). The magnitude and rate of local meltwater production are remarkably similar to those observed on the prior Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign, where the cumulative summer freshwater production totaled around 1 m during both. A relatively small fraction (10 %) of freshwater from melt remains in ponds, which is higher on more deformed second-year ice (SYI) compared to first-year ice (FYI) later in the summer. Most meltwater drains laterally and vertically, with vertical drainage enabling storage of freshwater internally in the ice by freshening brine channels. In the upper ocean, freshwater can accumulate in transient meltwater layers on the order of 0.1 to 1 m thick in leads and under the ice. The presence of such layers substantially impacts the coupled system by reducing bottom melt and allowing false bottom growth; reducing heat, nutrient, and gas exchange; and influencing ecosystem productivity. Regardless, the majority fraction of freshwater from melt is inferred to be ultimately incorporated into the upper ocean (75 %) or stored internally in the ice (14 %). Terms such as the annual sea ice freshwater production and meltwater storage in ponds could be used in future work as diagnostics for global climate and process models. For example, the range of values from the CESM2 climate model roughly encapsulate the observed total freshwater production, while storage in melt ponds is underestimated by about 50 %, suggesting pond drainage terms as a key process for investigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing biogeographic survey gaps in bacterial diversity knowledge: A global synthesis of freshwaters

Freshwaters account for 0.8% of Earth's surface area, yet support >10% of known plant and animal species making them disproportionately biodiverse. Modern molecular techniques have begun to reveal microbial diversity, but application of these approaches to address global microbial biogeography is relatively unknown in freshwaters. Our aim was to identify gaps in microbial data coverage along climatic and landscape disturbance gradients and among terrestrial biomes and hydrographic regions for all freshwater ecosystems and three freshwater habitat types: lakes and reservoirs (lentic); streams and rivers (lotic); and wetlands. We reviewed literature on microbial diversity in freshwaters surveyed using 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing which identify microbial taxa. We georeferenced survey locations and used a geographic information system to identify and map gaps in survey coverage using open-source data for climate, landscape disturbance, terrestrial biomes, and freshwater ecoregions. In our study, we compiled 3,425 georeferenced survey locations reported from 963 studies. Streams were surveyed most frequently (60.8% of survey locations), followed by lakes (33.5%) and wetlands (5.6%). Surveys were concentrated in North America, central and western Europe, and Southeast Asia; 35% of freshwater ecoregions were surveyed at least once across freshwater habitat types, whereas 23%, 23%, and 12% were surveyed at least once for lentic, lotic, and wetland habitat types, respectively. The climatic gap analysis indicated coverage is high for temperate regions but lacking in the tropics and Arctic, particularly for wetland ecosystems. Our assessment revealed high climatic coverage of freshwater microbial diversity knowledge, but expansive ecoregional gaps attributable to biased sampling near research institutions in North America, western Europe, and China. Future surveys should target ecoregions in Africa, South America, Central Asia, Australia, and Antarctica. An essential next step will be to curate and disseminate sequencing efforts to facilitate the study of processes driving global diversity patterns.

16S rRNA↗
DOE OSTI2025

The HydroBio Dataset: a new data resource for evaluating existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity in the conterminous United States

Hydropower is a critical source of affordable and reliable electricity and energy system stability services in the United States. Opportunities to expand US hydropower production include retrofitting existing non-powered dams to produce power, retrofitting existing hydropower dams to improve efficiency or increase capacity, or constructing new hydropower infrastructure on currently unregulated river reaches. We created the HydroBio Dataset, which summarizes existing and potential hydropower capacity and freshwater biodiversity at the sub-basin scale in the conterminous US to contextualize existing and potential grid contributions with the freshwater ecosystems in which dams are situated. We demonstrate a use-case of this dataset by rescaling and comparing potential non-powered dam nominal capacity to rarity-threat-weighted freshwater species richness for sub-basins where both types of data exist. On average, normalized freshwater biodiversity exceeded normalized potential non-powered dam nominal capacity in these sub-basins. Potential non-powered dam nominal capacity was concentrated in sub-basins in the Upper Mississippi and Ohio hydrologic regions while freshwater biodiversity was concentrated in the South Atlantic-Gulf, Ohio, and Tennessee hydrologic regions. Additionally, non-powered dams and existing hydropower dams are located in sub-basins with similar indices of freshwater biodiversity. The HydroBio Dataset adds an additional ecological dimension of context to our understanding of current and potential future US hydropower capabilities and is a valuable decision support tool for stakeholders tasked with balancing gains in services to the US power grid with the public and environmental benefits of freshwater ecosystems.

Biodiversity↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Nonlinear and Distinct Responses of Ocean Heat Content and Anthropogenic Carbon to Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge in a Warming Climate

Anthropogenic climate change will drive extensive mass loss across both the Antarctic (AIS) and Greenland Ice Sheets (GrIS), with the potential for global climate system feedbacks, especially in polar regions. Historically, the high-latitude North Atlantic and Southern Ocean have been critical regions for anthropogenic heat and carbon uptake, but our understanding of how this uptake will be altered by future freshwater discharge is incomplete. We assess each ice sheet's impact on global ocean anthropogenic heat and carbon storage for a high-emission scenario over the 21 st -century using a coupled Earth system model. We explore the impact of contemporaneous mass loss from both ice sheets on anthropogenic heat and carbon storage and quantify their linear and nonlinear contributions. Notably, added freshwater reduces ocean heat and carbon storage by 2,100, and the sum of individual freshwater effects differ from those induced by simultaneous freshwater discharge from both ice sheets. Combined AIS and GrIS freshwater engenders distinct anthropogenic storage anomalies—particularly in the high-latitude Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. From 2080 to 2100, GrIS freshwater exerts primary control on the temporal evolution of global ocean heat storage, while global ocean carbon storage is modulated by the linear AIS and GrIS freshwater impacts. Nonlinear impacts of simultaneous ice sheet discharge have a non-negligible contribution to the evolution of global ocean heat storage. Further, anthropogenic heat changes are realized more quickly in response to ice sheet discharge than anthropogenic carbon. Our results highlight the need to incorporate both ice sheets actively in climate models to accurately project future global climate.

Gorte, Tessa↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative clumped isotope temperature relationships in freshwater carbonates

Lacustrine, riverine and spring carbonates represent archives of terrestrial climates and their geochemistry has been used to study palaeoenvironments. Clumped isotope thermometry is an emerging tool that has been applied to freshwater carbonates. Limited work has been done to evaluate comparative relationships between clumped isotopes and temperature in different types of modern freshwater carbonates. This study assembles an extensive calibration data set with 135 samples of modern freshwater carbonates from 96 sites and constrains the relationship between independent observations of water temperature and the clumped isotopic composition of carbonates (denoted by Δ 47 ), including new measurements, and recalculates published data in accordance with current community-defined standard values. For temperature reconstruction, the study reports a composite freshwater calibration and material-specific calibrations for biogenic carbonates (freshwater gastropods and bivalves), fine-grained carbonate (e.g. micrites), biologically mediated carbonates (microbialites and tufas) and travertines. Material-specific calibration trends show a convergence of slopes that are in agreement with recently published syntheses, but statistically significant differences in intercepts occur between some materials (e.g. some biogenics, fine-grained carbonates). These differences may arise due to unresolved seasonal biases, kinetic isotope effects and/or varying degrees of biological influence. The impact of different calibrations is shown through application to new data for glacial and deglacial age travertines from Austria and published data sets. While material-specific calibrations may yield more accurate results for biogenic and fine-grained carbonate samples, the use of material-specific and the composite freshwater calibrations generally produces values within 1.0–1.5°C of each other, and typically fall within calibration uncertainty given limitations of precision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Depth-discrete metagenomics reveals the roles of microbes in biogeochemical cycling in the tropical freshwater Lake Tanganyika

Lake Tanganyika (LT) is the largest tropical freshwater lake, and the largest body of anoxic freshwater on Earth’s surface. LT’s mixed oxygenated surface waters float atop a permanently anoxic layer and host rich animal biodiversity. However, little is known about microorganisms inhabiting LT’s 1470 meter deep water column and their contributions to nutrient cycling, which affect ecosystem-level function and productivity. Here, we applied genome-resolved metagenomics and environmental analyses to link specific taxa to key biogeochemical processes across a vertical depth gradient in LT. We reconstructed 523 unique metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from 34 bacterial and archaeal phyla, including many rarely observed in freshwater lakes. We identified sharp contrasts in community composition and metabolic potential with an abundance of typical freshwater taxa in oxygenated mixed upper layers, and Archaea and uncultured Candidate Phyla in deep anoxic waters. Genomic capacity for nitrogen and sulfur cycling was abundant in MAGs recovered from anoxic waters, highlighting microbial contributions to the productive surface layers via recycling of upwelled nutrients, and greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide. Overall, our study provides a blueprint for incorporation of aquatic microbial genomics in the representation of tropical freshwater lakes, especially in the context of ongoing climate change, which is predicted to bring increased stratification and anoxia to freshwater lakes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Labrador Sea freshening linked to Beaufort Gyre freshwater release

Abstract The Beaufort Gyre (BG), the largest Arctic Ocean freshwater reservoir, has drastically increased its liquid freshwater content by 40% in the past two decades. If released within a short period, the excess freshwater could potentially impact the large-scale ocean circulation by freshening the upper subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we track BG-sourced freshwater using passive tracers in a global ocean sea-ice model and show that this freshwater exited the Arctic mostly through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, rather than Fram Strait, during an historical release event in 1983–1995. The Labrador Sea is the most affected region in the subpolar North Atlantic, with a freshening of 0.2 psu on the western shelves and 0.4 psu in the Labrador Current. Given that the present BG freshwater content anomaly is twice the historical analog studied here, the impact of a future rapid release on Labrador Sea salinity could be significant, easily exceeding similar fluxes from Greenland meltwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing freshwater supply to sustainably address global water security at scale

While significant parts of the globe are already facing significant freshwater scarcity, the need for more freshwater is projected to increase in order to sustain the increasing global population and economic growth, and adapt to climate change. Current approaches for addressing this challenge, which has the potential to result in catastrophic outcomes for consumptive needs and economic growth, rely on increasing the efficient use of existing resources. However, the availability of freshwater resources is rapidly declining due to over-exploitation and climate change and, therefore, is unlikely to sustainably address future needs, which requires a rethink of our solutions and associated investments. Here we present a bold departure from existing approaches by establishing the viability of significantly increasing freshwater through the capture of humid air over oceans. We show that the atmosphere above the oceans proximal to the land can yield substantial freshwater, sufficient to support large population centers across the globe, using appropriately engineered structures. Due to the practically limitless supply of water vapor from the oceans, this approach is sustainable under climate change and can transform our ability to address present and future water security concerns. This approach is envisioned to be transformative in establishing a mechanism for sustainably providing freshwater security to the present and future generations that is economically viable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Freshwater Input and Vertical Mixing in the Canada Basin’s Seasonal Halocline: 1975 versus 2006–12

Abstract The Arctic seasonal halocline impacts the exchange of heat, energy, and nutrients between the surface and the deeper ocean, and it is changing in response to Arctic sea ice melt over the past several decades. Here, we assess seasonal halocline formation in 1975 and 2006–12 by comparing daily, May–September, salinity profiles collected in the Canada Basin under sea ice. We evaluate differences between the two time periods using a one-dimensional (1D) bulk model to quantify differences in freshwater input and vertical mixing. The 1D metrics indicate that two separate factors contribute similarly to stronger stratification in 2006–12 relative to 1975: 1) larger surface freshwater input and 2) less vertical mixing of that freshwater. The larger freshwater input is mainly important in August–September, consistent with a longer melt season in recent years. The reduced vertical mixing is mainly important from June until mid-August, when similar levels of freshwater input in 1975 and 2006–12 are mixed over a different depth range, resulting in different stratification. These results imply that decadal changes to ice–ocean dynamics, in addition to freshwater input, significantly contribute to the stronger seasonal stratification in 2006–12 relative to 1975. These findings highlight the need for near-surface process studies to elucidate the impact of lateral processes and ice–ocean momentum exchange on vertical mixing. Moreover, the results may provide insight for improving the representation of decadal changes to Arctic upper-ocean stratification in climate models that do not capture decadal changes to vertical mixing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

FLUXNET-CH 4 : a global, multi-ecosystem dataset and analysis of methane seasonality from freshwater wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH 4 emissions due to quasi-continuous and high-temporal-resolution CH 4 flux measurements, coincident carbon dioxide, water, and energy flux measurements, lack of ecosystem disturbance, and increased availability of datasets over the last decade. Here, we (1) describe the newly published dataset, FLUXNET-CH 4 Version 1.0, the first open-source global dataset of CH 4 EC measurements (available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/, last access: 7 April 2021). FLUXNET-CH 4 includes half-hourly and daily gap-filled and non-gap-filled aggregated CH4 fluxes and meteorological data from 79 sites globally: 42 freshwater wetlands, 6 brackish and saline wetlands, 7 formerly drained ecosystems, 7 rice paddy sites, 2 lakes, and 15 uplands. Then, we (2) evaluate FLUXNET-CH 4 representativeness for freshwater wetland coverage globally because the majority of sites in FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0 are freshwater wetlands which are a substantial source of total atmospheric CH 4 emissions; and (3) we provide the first global estimates of the seasonal variability and seasonality predictors of freshwater wetland CH4 fluxes. Our representativeness analysis suggests that the freshwater wetland sites in the dataset cover global wetland bioclimatic attributes (encompassing energy, moisture, and vegetation-related parameters) in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions but only sparsely cover humid tropical regions. Seasonality metrics of wetland CH 4 emissions vary considerably across latitudinal bands. In freshwater wetlands (except those between 20°S to 20°N) the spring onset of elevated CH 4 emissions starts 3 d earlier, and the CH 4 emission season lasts 4 d longer, for each degree Celsius increase in mean annual air temperature. On average, the spring onset of increasing CH 4 emissions lags behind soil warming by 1 month, with very few sites experiencing increased CH 4 emissions prior to the onset of soil warming. In contrast, roughly half of these sites experience the spring onset of rising CH 4 emissions prior to the spring increase in gross primary productivity (GPP). The timing of peak summer CH 4 emissions does not correlate with the timing for either peak summer temperature or peak GPP. Our results provide seasonality parameters for CH 4 modeling and highlight seasonality metrics that cannot be predicted by temperature or GPP (i.e., seasonality of CH 4 peak). FLUXNET-CH 4 is a powerful new resource for diagnosing and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems and climate drivers in the global CH 4 cycle, and future additions of sites in tropical ecosystems and site years of data collection will provide added value to this database. All seasonality parameters are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4672601 (Delwiche et al., 2021). Additionally, raw FLUXNET-CH 4 data used to extract seasonality parameters can be downloaded from https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ (last access: 7 April 2021), and a complete list of the 79 individual site data DOIs is provided in Table 2 of this paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing freshwater and dissolved organic carbon flows to Northwest Alaska’s Elson lagoon

Manifestations of climate change in the Arctic are numerous and include hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw, both expected as a result of atmospheric and surface warming. Across the terrestrial Arctic dissolved organic carbon (DOC) entrained in arctic rivers may be providing a carbon subsidy to coastal food webs. Yet, data from field sampling is too often of limited duration to confidently ascertain impacts of climate change on freshwater and DOC flows to coastal waters. This study applies numerical modeling to investigate trends in freshwater and DOC exports from land to Elson Lagoon in Northwest Alaska over the period 1981-2020. While the modeling approach has limitations, the results point to significant increases in freshwater and DOC exports to the lagoon over the past four decades. The model simulation reveals significant increases in surface, subsurface (suprapermafrost), and total freshwater exports. Significant increases are also noted in surface and subsurface DOC production and export, influenced by warming soils and associated active-layer thickening. The largest changes in subsurface components are noted in September, which has experienced a ~50% increase in DOC export emanating from suprapermafrost flow. Direct coastal suprapermafrost freshwater and DOC exports in late summer more than doubled between the first and last five years of the simulation period, with a large anomaly in September 2019 representing a more than fourfold increase over September direct coastal export during the early 1980s. These trends highlight the need for dedicated measurement programs that will enable improved understanding of climate change impacts on coastal zone processes in this data sparse region of Northwest Alaska.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗