A techno-economic analysis of distributed energy resources versus wholesale electricity purchases for fueling decarbonized heavy duty vehicles
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Pham, An T. (ORCID:0000000328721750)↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Regional characteristics relevant to advanced technology cogeneration development
To assist DOE in establishing research and development funding priorities in the area of advanced energy conversion technoloy, researchers at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory studied those specific factors within various regions of the country that may influence cogeneration with advanced energy conversion systems. Regional characteristics of advanced technology cogeneration possibilities are discussed, with primary emphasis given to coal derived fuels. Factors considered for the study were regional industry concentration, purchased fuel and electricity prices, environmental constraints, and other data of interest to industrial cogeneration.
Manvi, R.↗
Data and code from: Multivariate bayesian regression model for predicting disposed ash composition at U.S. coal fired power stations
This dataset contains the code and data files needed for implementation of a Multivariate Bayesian Regression model, described in Jin et al. (2025), for the historical prediction of the chemical composition of disposed coal ash at U.S. coal fired power plants as a function of annualized coal purchase data. The integrated coal supply data file (CoalSupplyDataset.csv) represents a compilation of monthly fuel purchase records for the period 1973-2022 at major U.S. power stations. These records were obtained from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The CSV file also contains, for each coal purchase record, the coal region of the mine as defined by the U.S. Geological Survey. Data entry errors and data gaps in the EIA records were corrected as described in Jin et al. This CSV file represents the integrated coal supply data after corrections were made. The model structure and fitting parameters are encoded in pickle file format (Bayesian.pkl). The model was developed with the coal supply data and coal ash composition data, apportioned according to the Stratified Shuffle Split for training and testing subsets. The model was built using Python and the PyMC library. Reference Publication: Jin, Z.; Huang, J.; Hower, J.C.; Hsu-Kim, H.(2025). Predictive Assessment of the Chemical Composition of Coal Ash in Reserve at U.S. Disposal Sites. Environmental Science & Technology.
Coal ash composition↗
Economic considerations in coverting from oil/gas firing to coal
Economic considerations involved in fuel conversion such as from oil and/or gas firing to coal are discussed including investments costs for new facilities and equipment (including air pollution control equipment), operation and maintenance costs, and purchased fuel costs. An analytical approach to assessing the cost effectiveness of fuel conversion in terms of the annual net cost of conversion, the equivalent annual number of barrels of oil saved, and the integral rate of return of the conversion investment is presented. Illustrative numerical examples are presented for typical utility boilers and industrial boiler facilities. A further consideration addressed deals with the impacts of these costs on the overall financial structure of the firm and the ability of the firm to raise the necessary investment captial.
Rau, J. G.↗
Kraft black liquor concentration with graphene oxide membranes: Process simulations and technoeconomic analysis
Abstract Black liquor (BL) dewatering by multi‐effect evaporation in the kraft papermaking process is highly energy‐intensive. It was previously shown that graphene oxide (GO) nanofiltration membranes can remove lignin, other organics, and inorganic salts from BL while exhibiting stability in caustic BL conditions. Here, we design and simulate several candidate dewatering processes and evaluate their technoeconomic characteristics. All processes concentrate BL from 15 to 30 wt% solutes while producing aqueous permeate. Two process options were analyzed—option A including “last‐mile” permeate treatment to reduce solutes to 0.2 wt%, and option B excluding this treatment and producing a 3–4 wt% solutes stream. These processes were simulated in custom‐built ASPEN Plus flowsheets interfaced with Microsoft Excel and MATLAB. All processes deliver large (>40%) energy savings. Detailed technoeconomic analysis showed that option A processes are profitable in mills equipped with condensing turbines, but unprofitable with only purchased fuel savings. Option B processes are profitable in both situations, but require the caustic permeate to be utilized in other kraft process units. They are also profitable with electricity generation when operated at smaller scales matching the requirements of other process units. Monte‐Carlo sensitivity analysis shows that Option A can yield median 20‐year NPVs up to ~$10MM and Option B up to ~$25MM. Overall, GO membrane‐based BL dewatering is economically promising, assuming successful slipstream piloting and scale‐up campaigns. It would have immediate sustainability benefits from large energy savings, and broader implications for biorefinery processes due to the ability to fractionate biomass feedstock components under harsh conditions.
Wang, Zhongzhen↗
CELCAP: A Computer Model for Cogeneration System Analysis
A description of the CELCAP cogeneration analysis program is presented. A detailed description of the methodology used by the Naval Civil Engineering Laboratory in developing the CELCAP code and the procedures for analyzing cogeneration systems for a given user are given. The four engines modeled in CELCAP are: gas turbine with exhaust heat boiler, diesel engine with waste heat boiler, single automatic-extraction steam turbine, and back-pressure steam turbine. Both the design point and part-load performances are taken into account in the engine models. The load model describes how the hourly electric and steam demand of the user is represented by 24 hourly profiles. The economic model describes how the annual and life-cycle operating costs that include the costs of fuel, purchased electricity, and operation and maintenance of engines and boilers are calculated. The CELCAP code structure and principal functions of the code are described to how the various components of the code are related to each other. Three examples of the application of the CELCAP code are given to illustrate the versatility of the code. The examples shown represent cases of system selection, system modification, and system optimization.
Source record↗
Hydrocarbon-fuel/combustion-chamber-liner materials compatibility
Results of material compatibility experiments using hydrocarbon fuels in contact with copper-based combustion chamber liner materials are presented. Mil-Spec RP-1, n- dodecane, propane, and methane fuels were tested in contact with OFHC, NASA-Z, and ZrCu coppers. Two distinct test methods were employed. Static tests, in which copper coupons were exposed to fuel for long durations at constant temperature and pressure, provided compatibility data in a precisely controlled environment. Dynamic tests, using the Aerojet Carbothermal Test Facility, provided fuel and copper compatibility data under realistic booster engine service conditions. Tests were conducted using very pure grades of each fuel and fuels to which a contaminant, e.g., ethylene or methyl mercaptan, was added to define the role played by fuel impurities. Conclusions are reached as to degradation mechanisms and effects, methods for the elimination of these mechanisms, selection of copper alloy combustion chamber liners, and hydrocarbon fuel purchase specifications.
Gage, Mark L.↗
Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]
Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Assessment of the Effect of Prototypic High-Burnup Operating Conditions of Fuel Fragmentation, Relocation, and Dispersal Susceptibility
The US nuclear energy industry is investigating strategies that further reduce the cost of energy production by using its existing fleet of nuclear generating stations. Most nuclear power plant operating costs are associated with purchasing fresh fuel assemblies or the efficiency of the reactor core design. Material costs are typically beyond the operator’s control; however, the core design optimizations offer potential operational savings. The core design envelope available to operators is constrained by two primary regulatory criteria: an enrichment limit of 5% 235 U and a burnup limit of 62 GWD/tU. These constraints have resulted in renewed efforts by the nuclear industry to pursue extending the peak rod-average burnup beyond 62 GWd/tU. This effort will likely require additional safety analyses beyond what is currently accepted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The purpose of this work is to demonstrate a best estimate plus uncertainty pin-by-pin high-burnup loss of coolant accident analysis technique to assess full-core high-burnup fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD) and identify approaches for minimizing or potentially mitigating FFRD through core design optimizations.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Market Segmentation Analysis of Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks with a Fuel Cell Emphasis
The medium- and heavy-duty transportation sector is experiencing rapid changes in powertrain technology innovation with recent announcements of battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks being offered. However, the economics of these alternative powertrain vehicles are uncertain and difficult to compare directly. This analysis seeks to bridge the gap of techno-economic analyses for these alternative powertrain vehicles by comparing all of them within the same analytic framework. Specifically, this report evaluates the total cost of ownership (TCO) of six different truck powertrain technologies (diesel, diesel hybrid-electric, plug-in hybrid electric, compressed natural gas, battery electric, and fuel cell electric) for three different truck vocations (Class 8 long haul [750 mile range], Class 8 short haul [300 mile range], and Class 4 parcel delivery), for different Department of Energy technology statuses (2018, 2025, and Ultimate). The TCO framework includes direct costs (purchase price, fuel, operating and maintenance), indirect costs (dwell time costs due to refueling/recharging and payload opportunity costs from forgone revenue due to the truck being weight-limited), but excludes general operation costs (driver wages and benefits, insurance, tire replacements, permits, tolls) that are assumed to be the same across powertrains. The TCO was evaluated for four scenarios that reflect typical business operating conditions. The TCO analysis results highlight that each powertrain technology may have an economic advantage on a TCO basis in certain business operating conditions and depending on fuel price realized. For Class 8 long haul trucks when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric and fuel cell electric powertrains could be cost competitive with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved and fuel prices are low. If payload opportunity costs are incurred, battery electric powertrains are not estimated to reach TCO parity with diesel even if Ultimate targets and low electricity prices are realized, indicating a need for significant vehicle lightweighting. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are not incurred, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and compressed natural gas vehicle powertrains have very competitive TCOs with diesel if the 2025 targets are achieved. In Class 8 short haul commercial applications when payload opportunity costs are incurred, the battery electric vehicle powertrains can achieve TCO parity with diesel only if the Ultimate battery prices are met ($80/kWh). In Class 4 parcel delivery truck operating scenarios where there are no dwell time costs incurred, the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, battery electric vehicle, and fuel cell electric vehicle could be cost-competitive with diesel and compressed natural gas with current (2018) technology performance and costs. In general, the payload opportunity costs can be a significant driver to TCO for the Class 8 long and short haul commercial vehicle applications while the dwell time costs could be a major TCO cost driver for the Class 4 parcel delivery vehicle if the business scenario realizes those costs.
advanced powertrains↗
Togiak Heat Recovery Project
Togiak is one of hundreds of Alaskan Native, roadless communities only accessible by boat or plane. This project constructed a heat recovery (HR) system which pipes what was previously wasted heat generated at the power plant to four nearby community buildings. The power plant houses diesel fired generators which provide electricity to the community. This project designed and constructed the system that recovers a portion of the heat produced by the generators and pipes it to the end-user buildings. The heat recovery system integrates with each building’s internal heating system. The objective is to significantly reduce the heating costs in these four community facilities. By reducing the energy use and cost in these community facilities, the local economy is strengthened by keeping the funds inside the community that were formerly used to purchase imported fuel, thereby multiplying the impact of the energy cost reduction. Energy independence is enhanced and energy resilience is increased by reducing dependence on long fuel supply chains which are easily interrupted by unpredictable natural and man-made disasters such as earthquakes, climate change, road rail and sea accidents, etc.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends: 2024 Update [Slides]
Berkeley Lab’s "Retail Electricity Price and Cost Trends" summarizes recent trends in retail electricity price levels and price drivers in the United States. This report is intended to serve as a reference document for the diverse set of decision-makers impacted by changes in retail electricity prices and to provide a factual basis for assessing recent changes in retail electricity prices and key underlying drivers. National, regional, and state trends are reported for 2019 through 2023 using publicly-available data for: -Average retail electricity prices, retail sales, and utility revenues -Utility capital expenditures, operations and maintenance costs, and fuel and purchased power costs -Retail electricity sales impacts from behind-the-meter resources The report also includes qualitative case studies highlighting recent and/or regionally-specific issues contributing significantly to retail electricity price trends
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Fuel supply and distribution. Fixed base operation
Aviation gasoline versus other products, a changing marketplace, the Airline Deregulation Act of 1978, aviation fuel credit card purchases, strategic locations, storage, co-mingling of fuel, and transportation to/from central storage are discussed.
Burian, L. C.↗
Fuel Consumption Modeling of a Transport Category Aircraft Using Flight Operations Quality Assurance Data: A Literature Review
Fuel is a major cost expense for air carriers. A typical airline spends 10% of its operating budget on the purchase of jet fuel, which even exceeds its expenditures on aircraft acquisitions. Thus, it is imperative that fuel consumption be managed as wisely as possible. The implementation of Flight Operations Quality Assurance (FOQA) programs at airlines may be able to assist in this management effort. The purpose of the study is to examine the literature regarding fuel consumption by air carriers, the literature related to air carrier fuel conservation efforts, and the literature related to the appropriate statistical methodologies to analyze the FOQA-derived data.
Stolzer, Alan J.↗
History of Ethanol Fuel Adoption in the United States: Policy, Economics, and Logistics
Ethanol has the achieved the greatest market share of all the alternative transportation fuels that have been researched, developed, and deployed in the US. There are multiple lessons to be learned from the history of ethanol adoption that can be applied to future fuels and products. Ethanol has replaced portions of gasoline in three main blend levels, with corresponding vehicles, equipment, benefits, and policies. The first is E10, which has replaced nearly all pure gasoline (E0) sold in the United States today (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2015). This was brought about through generations of policies that were motivated by multiple factors related to engine performance, energy security, health, air quality, and climate protection. Ethanol's high octane has been a consistent driver of the fuel because this enables higher performance engines. Early policies (1973-1979) were largely motivated by the desire to reduce dependence on petroleum sourced from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC. Fuel policy in the 1980s was largely in pursuit of promoting octane number enhancers that could replace lead. Criteria pollutant reduction was the overarching goal of actions taken from 1990 to 2005. From 2005 to the present, fuel policy has been largely motivated by energy security and climate protection goals. These policies were usually technology-agnostic and promoted multiple fuels and additives during each period. However, ethanol is the only fuel identified that is cost effective with qualities that enabled it to prosper in the policy environments of all four of these periods.The second market for ethanol is via 85% ethanol (E85). This fuel has the advantage of a greater concentration of ethanol but the disadvantage of not being compatible with regular gasoline vehicles. Instead, it can only be used in flexible-fuel vehicle (FFVs), which can use every blend level from E0 to E85. Therefore, much of the effort to increase E85 consumption has been aimed at incentivizing automakers to manufacture FFVs, drivers to purchase FFVs, and fueling stations to equip themselves to sell E85.The third, and newest, market through which ethanol is consumed is 15% ethanol (E15), which builds upon the E10 market to increase ethanol consumption by common gasoline vehicles. Efforts to create the E15 market consisted largely of testing vehicles and refueling equipment for compatibility, creating waivers to allow the use of E15, placing requirements on E15 retailers, and incentivizing retailers to equip themselves to purchase E15.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Combined Heat and Power Deployment Program
Combined heat and power (CHP) is an efficient and clean approach to generating on-site electric power and useful thermal energy from a single fuel source. Instead of purchasing electricity from the distribution grid and burning fuel in an on-site furnace or boiler to produce thermal energy, CHP provides both energy services to a facility in one energy-efficient step.
CHP↗
MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report (Rev.2)
The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
MARVEL Reactor Fuel Performance Report
The Microreactor Applications Research Validation and EvaLuation (MARVEL) project is producing a high temperature liquid metal-cooled nuclear test bed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to ultimately improve the integration of microreactors to end-user applications. This ambitious effort seeks to design, authorize, construct, test, and operate the reactor within five years. In order to construct and operate the MARVEL reactor in a timely manner, the system will utilize materials and component designs which have already been used, qualified, or licensed from previous reactors. The MARVEL reactor will be located at the INL Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility in the north high-bay equipment pit and will use the existing 304 stainless steel-clad U-ZrH1.6 pin-type fuel system developed by General Atomics and purchased from TRIGA International. This fuel has been previously qualified under the United States Department of Energy’s (US DOE) Reduced Enrichment for Research and Test Reactors (RERTR) Program. Even though the regulator of the MARVEL reactor is the US DOE, the standards and overall approach recommended by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission is well-defined and utilized here. Following NUREG-1537 regulatory guidance, this report documents the authorization case for the MARVEL fuel system’s application to MARVEL and establishes stable and predictable fuel performance during the most thermophysically unfavorable conditions achievable in the MARVEL reactor. To that end, this report provides a comprehensive survey of the known thermophysical properties, performance, and quantitative relationships associated with the MARVEL reactor fuel element and uses this information to determine its mechanical integrity and risk of reaching unacceptable conditions during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the reactor using the most conservative assumptions available. The information contained herein is compiled from a combination of historical reports and peer reviewed scientific publication manuscripts. Known mechanisms under which the fuel is susceptible to failure are highlighted and compared to conditions that could exist in the MARVEL reactor during an unanticipated transient or accident scenario. The two scenarios considered for analysis in this report are (1) an unprotected loss of flow accident and (2) a hypothetical unprotected loss of coolant accident during the loss of flow accident. Preliminary 2D steady-state analyses herein indicate that both fuel-cladding chemical interactions and fuel-cladding mechanical interactions are negligible throughout the fuel’s operational cycle under both normal and high temperature accident scenario conditions. Although higher fidelity 3D time-dependent modeling and simulations are planned, the following may be concluded presently. The MARVEL fuel element maintains its geometric stability and structural integrity during the most extreme accident scenarios predicted for the MARVEL reactor. The hoop stress during the unprotected loss of flow accident reaches about -1.27 MPa; this negative stress indicates that it is compressive rather than tensile. The compressive stress is a result of the NaK pressure on the outside of the fuel element, caused by the restricted thermal expansion of the NaK coolant, exceeding the internal pressures generated inside of the fuel element. The hoop stress generated in the cladding during the unprotected loss of coolant accident reaches a maximum of about approximately 10 MPa, which is nearly an order of magnitude less than the predicted yield strength of the cladding under high-temperature accident scenario conditions. Calculations were compared with results from high performance computational simulations using BISON and are in very close agreement. A conservative MARVEL fuel meat peak temperature limit of 900 °C is recommended presently, which is about 180 °C higher than the peak fuel temperature predicted to occur during the most extreme accident. Based on the known properties and behavior of the MARVEL fuel element, the fuel successfully meets its design and safety requirements under normal and most extreme accident conditions with a large safety margin.
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗