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At least 19 records

Accessibility and Availability of Gas Stations for Liquid Fuel Supply During Severe Weather Events

Energy infrastructure is a pivotal lifeline with wider inter-dependencies. Electric power is essential to the continued functioning of critical assets; liquid fuels and other physical primary energy commodities that are used to supply the local energy needs of these assets during extreme events when electricity infrastructure is compromised. During Superstorm Sandy, the disruption of fuel supplies in the Tri-state area necessitated increasing situational awareness about oil and natural gas (ONG) systems to redirect fuel supplies to first responders and for restoration efforts. During winter storm events over the past several years, the demand for ONG for heating and power generation has skyrocketed in the north-east, which subsequently had caused ONG price to hit their highest level in years. ONG is a major energy source for restoration and recovery activities. However, very little, if any, situational awareness information about ONG supply and demand is available to those coordinating emergency efforts. Often this lack of information is due to the decentralized nature of the ONG supply chain and proprietary data maintained by private entities. To understand the impact of fuel availability on response and recovery efforts, this research focuses on (i) determining the accessibility to gas stations for liquid fuel supply across space and time, and (ii) examining the spatio-temporal variation of fuel availability and demand during extreme weather events. The broader scope of the project focuses on providing spatio-temporal situational awareness information about ONG availability and demand across the fuel supply chain for positioning of resources for response activities.

Kar, Bandana↗

Precooling system utilizing cryogenic liquid fuels for fueling pressurized vehicle gaseous onboard storage tank system with controlled dispensing temperatures

A method and a precooling system are provided for precooling gaseous fuel supplied for fueling pressurized gaseous vehicle onboard storage tank systems. The precooling system is used in pressurized gaseous fueling stations with source fuels in cryogenic state, such as liquid hydrogen (LH2) and liquefied nature gas (LNG). A thermal buffer heat exchanger includes a heat exchanger medium, and a cold loop and a warm loop contained in the heat exchanger medium. A control unit is configured for controlling cryogenic fuel supplied to the cold loop for cooling the thermal buffer heat exchanger. The thermal buffer heat exchanger enables precooling high pressure gaseous fuel to a preset temperature supplied to a dispenser supplying high pressure gaseous fuel to refuel a vehicle onboard storage tank system.

Elgowainy, Amgad A.↗

Marine Alternative Fuel Pricing, Supply, and Demand

The International Maritime Organization low sulfur fuel rules and greenhouse gas-reduction strategy may create a significant perturbation to global refinery operations, impacting volumes and prices of marine fuel globally and within the United States and incentivizing the transition to alternative fuel use. The goals of this project are to (1) enhance understanding of how very low-sulfur fuel-primarily fuel oil and diesel-and low carbon fuel requirements and promising biofuel processes will affect the marine fuel supply chain; and (2) explore how these perturbations interact with and impact indicators such as pricing, number of trips, and demand behavior, along with the potential to meet low sulfur and carbon fuel demand with biofuel supply chains, (3) merge innovative thinking in the area of marine fuels within research centers of DOE (NREL) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (Volpe). These goals will be accomplished through the combination of detailed refinery, marine fuel burn, system dynamics, and geospatially explicit linear programming models.

biofuel↗

Transportation Fuel Resiliency: Case Study of Tampa Bay

Here, this case study presents findings from an analysis of the emergency preparation and response for Hurricane Irma, the most recent hurricane impacting the Tampa Bay region. The Tampa Bay region, in particular, is considered one of the most vulnerable areas in the United States to hurricanes and severe tropical weather. A particular vulnerability stems from how all petroleum fuel comes to the area by marine transport through Port Tampa Bay, which can be (and has been in the past) impacted by hurricanes and tropical storms. The case study discussed in this paper covers previous fuel challenges, vulnerabilities, and lessons learned by key Tampa Bay public agency fleets during the past 10 years (mainly as a result of the most recent 2017 Hurricane Irma) to explore ways to improve the area’s resilience to natural disasters. Some of the strategies for fuel-supply resiliency include maintaining emergency fuel supply, prioritizing fuel use, strategically placing the assets around the region to help with recovery, investing in backup generators (including generators powered by alternative fuels), planning for redundancies in fuel supply networks, developing more efficient communication procedures between public fleets, hurricane preparedness-planning, and upgrading street drainage systems to reduce the threat of local flooding.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Water Electrolyzers and Fuel Cells Supply Chain: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the federal government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. This report is one of a series that supports the analysis of the energy industrial base called for in Executive Order 14017 on America’s supply chains (Exec. Order No. 14017, 2021). Specifically, it provides a review of the supply chain for water electrolyzers and fuel cells with a focus on polymer electrolyte membrane electrolyzer cells (PEMEC), polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFC), solid oxide electrolyzer cells (SOEC), and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). Water electrolysis and fuel cells are a nascent industry with little prior information related to supply chain needs and constraints. This report provides a preliminary assessment; further industry peer review and revisions are expected.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Life‐cycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with nuclear power generation in the United States

Under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, tax credits of up to $3/kgH 2 are available to hydrogen producers if they generate emissions at levels below 0.45 kgCO 2 e/kgH 2 , spurring producers to explore how hydrogen production via electrolysis using electricity generated by nuclear power may qualify for such tax credits. With uranium as a primary fuel for nuclear power plants (NPPs) and no on-site emissions, the upstream emissions associated with nuclear fuel supply chains largely determine the carbon intensity of nuclear energy. Using the GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model, we evaluated the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of uranium production and the use of uranium to generate electricity in light water reactor (LWR) NPPs. We evaluated the process chemicals and energy inputs throughout the nuclear fuel supply chain to identify the major contributors to nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions. Such emissions are estimated at 3.0 gCO 2 e/kWh at NPPs in the United States. The greatest share of nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions—comprising 53% of total emissions—are associated with electricity consumption throughout the fuel supply chain. We extended the analysis to include an evaluation of the carbon intensity of H 2 production via electrolysis using nuclear power from LWRs. Finally, we examined the impact of future (2035 and 2050) electricity supply chain scenarios on nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions. Our analysis revealed a decrease of 33% (2035) and 46% (2050) in the carbon intensity of nuclear electricity relative to current nuclear fuel cycle GHG emissions.

greenhouse gas emissions↗

Molten Salt Reactor Fuel Cycle Chemistry Workshop Report

Deploying commercial molten salt reactors (MSRs) requires closing technological gaps associated with supplying fuel salt, maintaining fuel salt, and dispositioning used fuel salt at the end of a reactor campaign and operation. A workshop was held to identify the technological gaps in synthesizing, purifying, and supplying fuel salts and recovering and recycling resource materials from used fuel.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Catalytic and electrocatalytic performance of Sr(Ti 0.3 Fe 0.7 Ru 0.07 )O 3-δ for applications in solid oxide fuel cells supplied with ethanol steam reforming mixtures

We discuss how direct utilization of alcohols in Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) can improve the conversion efficiency by using excess heat for internal reforming and simplify the system balance of plant. Thanks to their scarce carbon- formation tendency, perovskite oxide anodes are promising alternatives to Ni-based cermets. Here we show that Sr(Ti 0.3 Fe 0.7 Ru 0.07 )O 3-δ (STF-Ru) exsolution anodes provide both catalytic reforming activity and electro- chemical activity with steam/ethanol (S/E) mixtures at 3:1 and 2:1 M ratio between 700 and 800 °C. Electrolyte- supported scandia stabilized zirconia SOFCs with STF-Ru anodes and Sr 0.95 Ti 0.3 Fe 0.7 O 3-δ (STF) cathodes are reasonably stable in the 3:1 S/E mixture over 20 h at 800 °C, with maximum power density of 195 mW/cm 2 and 140 mW/cm 2 at 0.7 V. Deactivation instead occurs with the 2:1 S/E mixture. Comparatively, cells with Ni-YSZ anodes rapidly coke and fail under the same conditions. Ethanol steam reforming experiments in a fixed bed powder reactor reveal that, above 650 °C, gas phase reactions convert ethanol to CO, hydrogen, acetaldehyde and ethylene, while STF-Ru catalyzes steam reforming. Thermogravimetric and Raman characterizations show that a moderate amount of carbon is deposited on the STF-Ru surface, which is more amorphous than the disruptive carbon which degrades Ni-YSZ.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Coal-Biomass Co-Firing Power Plants with Carbon Capture and Storage

The United States has set a target to achieve the net-zero economy by 2050. Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS) is one of the promising negative-emission routes in the mitigation portfolio to help meet this goal. Coal-biomass co-firing with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key BECCS technology to realize the carbon mitigation at fossil-fuel power plants. The mitigation potential of co-firing option is affected by numerous critical factors, such as biomass properties, co-firing level, and carbon capture rate. The objectives of the study are to characterize and estimate the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and performance of coal-biomass co-firing power plants with CCS, determine the breakeven co-firing level at power plants necessary to achieve net-zero life cycle emissions, and quantify the variabilities and uncertainties in life cycle emissions. The scope of the life cycle assessment includes the fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. A fuel-based life cycle module is developed and embedded in the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM), a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. This study then applies the enhanced IECM to conduct the process-based life cycle assessment for an array of biomass co-firing scenarios. Deterministic analysis indicates that reaching net-zero life cycle emissions in a biomass co-firing plant without CCS deployment is challenging. Combining biomass co-firing and CCS deployment can significantly lower the overall life cycle emissions of power plants. Net-zero life cycle emissions can be achieved with a 20 wt.% co-firing level and 90% CCS when the Powder River Basin coal is co-fired with energy crops or forestry residues. However, the breakeven co-firing level for net-zero emissions depend on the selected fuel properties. Fuel supply and plant operation are the critical stages influencing the life cycle emissions of power plants with 90% CCS. Deployment of deep CCS beyond 90% CO2 capture can remarkably reduce operational emissions and the breakeven co-firing level. With 99% CCS, the breakeven co-firing rate can be reduced to 12% on average. These findings highlight the trade-offs between technical performance and environmental impact of biomass co-firing at coal-fired power plants and emphasize the role of deep CCS in achieving a net-zero emissions future.

Wu, Wanying↗

Potential Availability of Alternative Fuel to Supply Maritime Activities in Pacific Northwest Ports

The international shipping sector represented 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 (Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 2024). International shipping has been classified as a difficult-to-decarbonize industry (IRENA 2024). In an effort to drive decarbonization, the U.S. Department of Energy has partnered with Mission Innovation to co-lead the Zero-Emission Shipping Mission, which launched in 2021(Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy 2021). In addition, the U.S. Department of State partnered with Norway to launch the Green Shipping Challenge in 2022 (Office of the Spokesperson 2022b). As part of the ZESM and Green Shipping Challenge, the United States is collaborating with the Republic of Korea (ROK) to develop a green shipping corridor (U.S. Mission Korea 2023). The United States and ROK have conducted a pre-feasibility study as the first step in developing a green shipping corridor between the countries. The ports included in the study are Seattle, Tacoma, and Everette in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) and Busan, Ulsan, and Masan in ROK. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's role in the study was to analyze the availability and technical potential of alternative marine fuels in proximity to U.S. PNW ports. The findings show most of the existing alternative fuel capacity within the region is from renewable diesel, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel facilities. The largest growth in fuel capacity in the region by 2030 is projected to be in renewable diesel and hydrogen. The overall technical readiness of non-drop-in alternative fuel production and conversion technologies is more developed than alternative-fueled ships and associated fueling infrastructure. However, much of the fuel capacity in the region is comprised of drop-in fuels, making it technically possible to use existing infrastructure for transporting and bunkering to the existing fleet. Data to inform regional alternative fuel quantity estimations were collected from an extensive review of databases, reports, announcements, and other publicly available resources. A maturity index and sector competition factor were applied to announced fuel projects to determine the quantity of alternative fuel available to the marine sector in the region by 2030. Demand data were collected from fuel bunkering logs covering the PNW seaports (State of Washington 2021). Both supply and demand data were converted to very-low sulfur fuel oil gallon equivalents (VLSFO-GE) for better comparison. Qualitative data were gathered through interviews with stakeholders, project developers, and industry experts. Total alternative fuel capacity available to the marine sector in the region is estimated to be 824 million VLSFO-GE per year by 2030. This is sufficient to cover the requirements of a green shipping corridor between the United States and ROK. The findings from this report are being used to inform detailed feasibility studies for several U.S. PNW -ROK green shipping corridors. Updates from the U.S. PNW - ROK feasibility studies will continue to be published on Mission Innovation's green corridor tracking website (Zero Emission Shipping Mission, n.d.). In addition, this report has helped to inform further work on shipping decarbonization in the U.S. PNW, including the Pacific Northwest to Alaska Green Corridor focused on cruise vessels.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Hydrogen Infrastructure Analysis for the Port Applications [Slides]

The International Maritime Organization has committed to 50% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050 worldwide as of 2023. This analysis includes performing an inventory and modeling efforts to understand the energy, equipment and cost requirements to support decarbonization of cargo handling and shore power at U.S. Ports, along with assessment of zero- and near- zero emission fuel supplies at or near U.S. ports focused upon Hydrogen technologies. Initial market assessment for ocean going vessels for harbor support and ocean-going vessels is explored. An energy analysis is performed on the port system using a holistic approach and considering the port as an entire ecosystem that functions as a transportation and energy node. Presently, a comprehensive view is lacking for future analysis efforts, this analysis seeks to address this gap in data by evaluating four representative port types and the potential for utilizing hydrogen for the maritime industry. Every port is different, but broadly they could be bracketed into reference cases with scaling factors for the relative size of the port operations. These reference ports are for future use, potentially as baselines for analysis and development of demonstration programs. An equipment inventory for each reference port type (container, bulk, breakbulk, and inland waterway) is presented. A comparative analysis of fuel cell electric and battery electric equipment is conducted based on the following criteria: technology readiness level, refueling/charging time, operational range, energy consumption, and fuel cost savings compared to baseline internal combustion engine equipment. The tradeoffs and synergies between two alternative powertrains is highlighted. Based on energy and infrastructure analysis, average and high equipment utilization profiles across different port types is identified and quantified baseline fuel and electricity demand for various decarbonization scenarios. Based on the portfolio of equipment converted to fuel cell electric, the estimates of initial capital investment are provided for hydrogen refueling stations across ports. An energy demand model is developed that predicts well the all-electric cargo handling equipment annual energy consumption for ports with annual tonnage under 2 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The model is a good rubric to follow for further energy demand models that can create a scalable solution to understand the energy needs of cargo handling equipment, whether they are all-electric, hydrogen fuel cell, or powered by another fuel-type. Zero and near-zero emission fuel supply at ports is evaluated looking into the characteristics of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol as an alternative fuel, as well as the bunkering status. The readiness of reference ports to produce ammonia or methanol and bunker the fuel is examined based on the framework developed by the Global Maritime Forum and Rocky Mountain Institute.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A trilevel model against false gas-supply information attacks in electricity systems

The interdependence between natural gas and electricity systems is increasing rapidly due to the growing reliance on natural gas-fired generating units. Availability of natural gas for gas-fired generating units can impact the secure operation of electricity systems. Fuel supply shortage for gas-fired units can be caused by uncertain interruptible supply contracts and incorrect supply information. This article proposes a trilevel min-max-min defender-attacker-operator optimization problem to provide the power system operator a screening methodology that allocates a limited budget for best protecting critical fuel supply information, and also the strategies to sign firm supply contract to reduce natural gas supply uncertainties. We utilize a column and constraint generation (C&CG) algorithm to solve the proposed problem. We illustrate the effectiveness of this trilevel formulation using a case study based on IEEE 24-node test system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part I: Sector Overviews

“Sector coupling” is a concept that addresses potential designs for the future power industry. Traditionally, the energy sectors, i.e., electricity supply, transport, and industry, have functioned largely independently from one another. Thus, the concept of sector coupling means that the electricity sector would become the central pillar of the energy system, supplying the other sectors – transportation and industry – with energy in various ways, a scheme described by the term “Power-to-X”. This report delves into the ambitious goal set by the United States to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with a pivotal milestone of making half of all passenger vehicles sold in America zero-emission by 2030. Central to achieving this objective is the electrification of the transportation sector, resulting in complex interactions between this sector and the electric industry. As electric vehicles become more prevalent, a shift in the dependency on electricity for vehicle charging emerges, alongside a reduction in the electricity demand associated with maintaining the fossil fuel supply chain. Both the electricity and fossil fuel have been identified as critical infrastructure sectors, the transportation sector's historical reliance on fossil fuels, and the mature supply chain supporting them are explored. This study emphasizes the existing sectoral coupling between the electric energy and transportation sectors, extending beyond vehicle charging to essential operations at refineries, pipeline facilities, storage, and fuel extraction. Recognizing the critical dependency of fossil fuel supply chain operations on the electric sector, this research underscores the need for a comprehensive view of the evolving dynamics between the transportation and electric sectors. This study has been split into two segments, Part-I provides an overview of the existing fossil fuel supply chain architecture and the electrical sector. We provide an in-depth analysis of the grid-transportation sectoral coupling, its interactions, the vulnerabilities and essential take-aways that would help us to address them and apply towards an electrified transportation sector in the future. We engaged with stakeholders to understand their expectations in enabling an electrified transportation. We accumulate the understandings from the current fossil fuel-based system in developing a risk matrix, by identifying all the threats and vulnerabilities and how would they apply to both the current and future transportation systems in Part-II of this report.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

Pandemic, War, and Global Energy Transitions

The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine have impacted the global economy, including the energy sector. The pandemic caused drastic fluctuations in energy demand, oil price shocks, disruptions in energy supply chains, and hampered energy investments, while the war left the world with energy price hikes and energy security challenges. The long-term impacts of these crises on low-carbon energy transitions and mitigation of climate change are still uncertain but are slowly emerging. This paper analyzes the impacts throughout the energy system, including upstream fuel supply, renewable energy investments, demand for energy services, and implications for energy equity, by reviewing recent studies and consulting experts in the field. We find that both crises initially appeared as opportunities for low-carbon energy transitions: the pandemic by showing the extent of lifestyle and behavioral change in a short period and the role of science-based policy advice, and the war by highlighting the need for greater energy diversification and reliance on local, renewable energy sources. However, the early evidence suggests that policymaking worldwide is focused on short-term, seemingly quicker solutions, such as supporting the incumbent energy industry in the post-pandemic era to save the economy and looking for new fossil fuel supply routes for enhancing energy security following the war. As such, the fossil fuel industry may emerge even stronger after these energy crises creating new lock-ins. This implies that the public sentiment against dependency on fossil fuels may end as a lost opportunity to translate into actions toward climate-friendly energy transitions, without ambitious plans for phasing out such fuels altogether. We propose policy recommendations to overcome these challenges toward achieving resilient and sustainable energy systems, mostly driven by energy services.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fuel cell system

A fuel cell system comprising: a fuel cell, a fuel gas supplier configured to supply fuel gas to an anode of the fuel cell, an oxidant gas supplier configured to supply oxidant gas to a cathode of the fuel cell, a humidity adjuster configured to adjust a relative humidity of the fuel gas and a relative humidity of the oxidant gas, and a controller, wherein the controller detects the relative humidity of the fuel gas at an anode inlet of the fuel cell, and the controller detects the relative humidity of the oxidant gas at a cathode outlet of the fuel cell, and wherein, based on detection results, the controller controls the humidity adjuster so that the relative humidity of the fuel gas at the anode inlet is higher than the relative humidity of the oxidant gas at the cathode outlet.

Ando, Masaki↗

Development of the Well-to-Wake Life Cycle Assessment Model for Marine Fuels in R&D GREET 2025

The Marine analysis capabilities in the 2025 Research and Development Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) have been updated to incorporate the latest findings from the Fourth International Maritime Organization (IMO) GHG Study.1 To support these updates and enhance user flexibility, the former single marine module used in previous R&D GREET versions has been split into two workbook tabs: The Marine_Fuel tab, which covers the fuel-cycle, and the Marine_Trip tab, which covers the trip-cycle. In the Marine_Fuel tab, fuel cycle results for 39 marine fuels are available—assuming a slow speed diesel engine—and can be seen in Appendix A. However, there are options for changing feedstocks for multiple fuels, ability to view results with or without pilot fuels for fuels such as methanol and ammonia, and carbon capture options. All these combinations make the number of total possible pathways over one hundred. For each pathway, life cycle emission results are divided into feedstock, conversion, and combustion categories, along with pilot fuel supply chain emissions for fuels used in dual fuel engines. In the newly created Marine_Trip tab, users can view the life cycle emissions of using these fuels from a trip perspective. Compared to R&D GREET 2024, 16 new types of vessels are added in R&D GREET 2025. Examples of results assuming the default size for each vessel type are available in Appendix A. Additional information categories on vessels are included such as vessel size, main propulsion type, engine power rating, combustion cycle, etc. based on the Fourth IMO GHG Study. Operational mode of the trip, fuel consumption, and load calculation were updated based on the report. The fuel consumption calculation also incorporates low-load adjustment, speed–power correction, weather correction, and fouling correction factors. Furthermore, fuel consumption in boilers or steam turbines is also added for the first time, besides fuel use in main propulsion engines and auxiliary engines. This effort makes the R&D GREET Marine capabilities more robust than before. Users will be able to estimate fuel consumption more accurately for more diverse choices of vessel categories, vessel sizes, and energy converters.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Summary of Pilot Project State Technical Assistance on Multi-Sector Analysis for Electric and Petroleum Fuels

The Oregon Energy Security Plan, (ODOE 2024) published in September 2024, builds a strong case for the state to give acute attention to the fuel supply chain. In December 2024, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in partnership with Oregon Department of Energy (ODOE), announced a pilot project to conduct an analysis that synthesizes current and projected transportation fuel dynamics, supply chain risks, and risk comparators with relevant sectors, such as transportation electrification, sponsored by the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER). The study, is intended to leverage existing modeling and frameworks from a recent 2024 sector coupling analysis supported by the DOEs Office of Electricity (OE) (B. Mitra, S. Pal, et al., Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part I: Sector Overviews 2024) (B. Mitra, S. Pal and J. Reeve, et al. 2024). While the PNNL team set out to conduct a quantitative risk analysis driven by detailed data that synthesizes current and projected transportation fuel dynamics, supply chain risks, and risk comparators with relevant sectors. The intention was to provide an approach that could be extendable to other parts of the country. They encountered data limitations and adjusted their approach accordingly. This report summarizes PNNL's original plan for executing the study, including limitations for obtaining data requirements for fuel flows and interim products, as well as a risk matrix that can be used to identify supply chain risks.

02 PETROLEUM↗