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At least 19 records

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A functional modeling approach for quality assurance in metal additive manufacturing

Purpose: Due to the complexity of and variations in additive manufacturing (AM) processes, there is a level of uncertainty that creates critical issues in quality assurance (QA), which must be addressed by time-consuming and cost-intensive tasks. This deteriorates the process repeatability, reliability and part reproducibility. So far, many AM efforts have been performed in an isolated and scattered way over several decades. Here, a systematically integrated holistic view is proposed to achieve QA for AM. Design/methodology/approach: A systematically integrated view is presented to ensure the predefined part properties before/during/after the AM process. It consists of four stages, namely, QA plan, prospective validation, concurrent validation and retrospective validation. As a foundation for QA planning, a functional workflow and the required information flows are proposed by using functional design models: Icam DEFinition for Function Modeling. Findings: The functional design model of the QA plan provides the systematically integrated view that can be the basis for inspection of AM processes for the repeatability and qualification of AM parts for reproducibility. Research limitations/implications: A powder bed fusion process was used to validate the feasibility of this QA plan. Feasibility was demonstrated under many assumptions; real validation is not included in this study. Social implications: This study provides an innovative and transformative methodology that can lead to greater productivity and improved quality of AM parts across industries. Furthermore, the QA guidelines and functional design models provide the foundation for the development of a QA architecture and management system. Originality/value: This systematically integrated view and the corresponding QA plan can pose fundamental questions to the AM community and initiate new research efforts in the in-situ digital inspection of AM processes and parts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Parametrized uncertainties in the spectral function model of neutrino charged-current quasielastic interactions for oscillation analyses

A substantial fraction of systematic uncertainties in neutrino oscillation experiments stem from the lack of precision in modeling the nuclear target in neutrino-nucleus interactions. Whilst this has driven significant progress in the development of improved nuclear models for neutrino scattering, it is crucial that the models used in neutrino data analyses be accompanied by parameters and associated uncertainties that allow the coverage of plausible nuclear physics. Based on constraints from electron scattering data, we propose such a set of parameters, which can be applied to nuclear shell models, and test their application to the Benhar [] spectral function model. The parametrization is validated through a series of maximum likelihood fits to cross section measurements made by the T2K and MINERvA experiments, which also permit an exploration of the power of near-detector data to provide constraints on the parameters in neutrino oscillation analyses. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Point-Spread Function Modeling

We present the point-spread function (PSF) modeling for weak lensing shear measurement using the full six years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y6) data. We review the PSF estimation procedure using the PIFF (PSFs In the Full FOV) software package and describe the key improvements made to PIFF and modeling diagnostics since the DES year three (Y3) analysis: (i) use of external Gaia and infrared photometry catalogs to ensure higher purity of the stellar sample used for model fitting, (ii) addition of color-dependent PSF modeling, the first for any weak lensing analysis, and (iii) inclusion of model diagnostics inspecting fourth-order moments, which can bias weak lensing measurements to a similar degree as second-order modeling errors. Through a comprehensive set of diagnostic tests, we demonstrate the improved accuracy of the Y6 models evident in significantly smaller systematic errors than those of the Y3 analysis, in which all g band data were excluded due to insufficiently accurate PSF models. For the Y6 weak lensing analysis, we include g band photometry data in addition to the riz bands, providing a fourth band for photometric redshift estimation. Looking forward to the next generation of wide-field surveys, we describe several ongoing improvements to PIFF, which will be the default PSF modeling software for weak lensing analyses for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DeePKS-kit: A package for developing machine learning-based chemically accurate energy and density functional models

We introduce DeePKS-kit, an open-source software package for developing machine learning based energy and density functional models. DeePKS-kit is interfaced with PyTorch, an open-source machine learning library, and PySCF, an ab initio computational chemistry program that provides simple and customized tools for developing quantum chemistry codes. It supports the DeePHF and DeePKS methods. In addition to explaining the details in the methodology and the software, we also provide an example of developing a chemically accurate model for water clusters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dark Energy Survey year 3 results: point spread function modelling

ABSTRACT We introduce a new software package for modelling the point spread function (PSF) of astronomical images, called piff (PSFs In the Full FOV), which we apply to the first three years (known as Y3) of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data. We describe the relevant details about the algorithms used by piff to model the PSF, including how the PSF model varies across the field of view (FOV). Diagnostic results show that the systematic errors from the PSF modelling are very small over the range of scales that are important for the DES Y3 weak lensing analysis. In particular, the systematic errors from the PSF modelling are significantly smaller than the corresponding results from the DES year one (Y1) analysis. We also briefly describe some planned improvements to piff that we expect to further reduce the modelling errors in future analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol

The atmospheric Green's function method is a technique for modeling the response of the atmosphere to changes in the spatial field of surface temperature. While early studies applied this method to changes in atmospheric circulation, it has also become an important tool to understand changes in radiative feedbacks due to evolving patterns of warming, a phenomenon called the “pattern effect.” To better study this method, this paper presents a protocol for creating atmospheric Green's functions to serve as the basis for a model intercomparison project, GFMIP. The protocol has been developed using a series of sensitivity tests performed with the HadAM3 atmosphere-only general circulation model, along with existing and new simulations from other models. Our preliminary results have uncovered nonlinearities in the response of the atmosphere to surface temperature changes, including an asymmetrical response to warming versus cooling patch perturbations, and a change in the dependence of the response on the magnitude and size of the patches. These nonlinearities suggest that the pattern effect may depend on the heterogeneity of warming as well as its location. These experiments have also revealed tradeoffs in experimental design between patch size, perturbation strength, and the length of control and patch simulations. The protocol chosen on the basis of these experiments balances scientific utility with the simulation time and setup required by the Green's function approach. Running these simulations will further our understanding of many aspects of atmospheric response, from the pattern effect and radiative feedbacks to changes in circulation, cloudiness, and precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A probability density function model describing height estimation uncertainty due to image pixel intensity noise in digital fringe projection measurements

Digital fringe projection is a surface-profiling technique used for highly accurate non-contact measurements. As with any measurement technique, a variety of sources degrade to the measurement accuracy of the method. Here, this paper presents an analytically-derived probability density function that explicitly models the surface height measurement error due to inevitable phase measurement error, and it includes the specific case of pixel noise inducing the phase measurement error that ultimately leads to the height estimation error. The accuracy of the model was validated through Monte-Carlo simulations of resultant height distributions subject to arbitrarily correlated pixel intensity noise and experimental digital fringe projection measurements where the pixel-by-pixel height uncertainty estimations were compared to the predictions of the derived model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Improved Methods for Modeling Functional Transition Metal Compounds in Complex Environments: Ground States, Excited States, and Spectroscopies

Rapid advances in energy applications require new theory and computational models to provide guidance for interpretation of experimental results and mechanistic understanding. New theory development is necessary to treat systems of increasing complexity, size, and relevance to real applications. Functional transition metal compounds, including molecules, clusters, nanoparticles, surfaces, and solids, provide particular promise for magnetic, optical, and catalytic applications. However, such systems can be exceptionally challenging to model. To make progress in understanding and designing transition metal compounds for energy applications, theory must be able to simulate such systems in complex environments, as well as simulate the spectra of such complex systems to provide direct connections with experiment. Leveraging the independent expertise of the team’s members, this project aimed to make inroads to the theoretical and computational challenges associated with studying transition metal compounds, their reaction chemistry, photophysics and photochemistry, and response to spectroscopic interrogation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling Functional Organic Chemistry in Arctic Rivers: An Idealized Siberian System

Rivers of the Arctic will become ever more important for the global climate, since they carry a majority of continental dissolved organic carbon flux into the rapidly changing polar ocean. Aqueous organics comprise a wide array of functional groups, several of which are likely to impact coastal and open water biophysical properties. Light attenuation, interfacial films, aerosol formation, gas release and momentum exchange can all be cited. We performed Lagrangian kinetic modeling for the evolution of riverine organic chemistry as the molecules in question make their way from the highlands to Arctic outlets. Classes as diverse as the proteins, sugars, lipids, re-condensates, humics, bio-tracers and small volatiles are all included. Our reduced framework constitutes an idealized northward flow driving a major hydrological discharge rate and primarily representing the Russian Lena. Mountainous, high solute and tundra sources are all simulated, and they meet up at several points between soil and delta process reactors. Turnover rates are parameterized beginning with extrapolated coastal values imposed along a limited tributary network, with connections between different terrestrial sub-ecologies. Temporal variation of our total dissolved matter most closely resembles the observations when we focus on the restricted removal and low initial carbon loads, suggesting relatively slow transformation along the water course. Thus, channel combinations and mixing must play a dominant role. Nevertheless, microbial and photochemical losses help determine the final concentrations for most species. Chemical evolution is distinct for the various functionalities, with special contributions from pre- and post-reactivity in soil and delta waters. Several functions are combined linearly to represent the collective chromophoric dissolved matter, characterized here by its absorption. Tributaries carry the signature of lignin phenols to segregate tundra versus taiga sources, and special attention is paid to the early then marine behaviors of low molecular weight volatiles. Heteropolycondensates comprise the largest percentage of reactive carbon in our simulations due to recombination/accumulation, and they tend to be preeminent at the mouth. Outlet concentrations of individual structures such as amino acids and absorbers lie above threshold values for biophysical influence, on the monolayer and light attenuation. The extent of coastal spreading is examined through targeted regional box modeling, relying on salinity and color for calibration. In some cases, plumes reach the scale of peripheral arctic seas, and amplification is expected during upcoming decades. Conclusions are mapped from the Lena to other boreal discharges, and future research questions are outlined regarding the bonding type versus mass release as permafrost degrades. Dynamic aqueous organic coupling is recommended for polar system models, from headwaters to coastal diluent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In–context promoter bashing of the Sorghum bicolor gene models functionally annotated as bundle sheath cell preferred expressing phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase and alanine aminotransferase

In-context promoter bashing via genome editing is a route to identify and characterize critical regulatory regions that govern expression of genes of interest. The outcomes of in-context promoter bashing can be used to inform editing strategies to modulate the expression of selected gene models in a desired fashion. Here, we employed in-context promoter bashing to characterize the proximal upstream regulatory regions of sorghum genes encoding phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase bundle sheath (SbPEPCK.BS, SbiTx430.01G455400) and alanine aminotransferase bundle sheath (SbAlaAT.BS, SbiTx430.02G006600), two proteins involved in the PCK C 4 pathway. Characterized germinal edits within the targeted regions upstream of these two genes ranged in size from 138 up to 1790 bp. A 138 bp within the SbPEPCK.BS upstream region and a 1643 bp element within the SbAlaAT.BS upstream region were determined to be important for maintenance of transcription levels. No change in development or various physiological parameters was observed in characterized lineages carrying promoter edits. However, significant changes in seed reserves and a reduction in 100-seed weight were consistently observed, under both greenhouse and field environments, in plants carrying an edit in the promoter of SbPEPCK.BS gene, which were significantly reduced in transcript accumulation for this gene.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Density functional modeling of the binding energies between aluminosilicate oligomers and different metal cations

Interactions between negatively charged aluminosilicate species and positively charged metal cations are critical to many important engineering processes and applications, including sustainable cements and aluminosilicate glasses. In an effort to probe these interactions, here we have calculated the pair-wise interaction energies (i.e., binding energies) between aluminosilicate dimer/trimer and 17 different metal cations M n+ (M n+ = Li + , Na + , K + , Cu + , Cu 2+ , Co 2+ , Zn 2+ , Ni 2+ , Mg 2+ , Ca 2+ , Ti 2+ , Fe 2+ , Fe 3+ , Co 3+ , Cr 3+ , Ti 4+ and Cr 6+ ) using a density functional theory (DFT) approach. Analysis of the DFT-optimized structural representations for the clusters (dimer/trimer + M n+ ) shows that their structural attributes (e.g., interatomic distances) are generally consistent with literature observations on aluminosilicate glasses. The DFT-derived binding energies are seen to vary considerably depending on the type of cations (i.e., charge and ionic radii) and aluminosilicate species (i.e., dimer or trimer). A survey of the literature reveals that the difference in the calculated binding energies between different M n+ can be used to explain many literature observations associated with the impact of metal cations on materials properties (e.g., glass corrosion, mineral dissolution, and ionic transport). Analysis of all the DFT-derived binding energies reveals that the correlation between these energy values and the ionic potential and field strength of the metal cations are well captured by 2nd order polynomial functions ( R 2 values of 0.99–1.00 are achieved for regressions). Given that the ionic potential and field strength of a given metal cation can be readily estimated using well-tabulated ionic radii available in the literature, these simple polynomial functions would enable rapid estimation of the binding energies of a much wider range of cations with the aluminosilicate dimer/trimer, providing guidance on the design and optimization of sustainable cements and aluminosilicate glasses and their associated applications. Finally, the limitations associated with using these simple model systems to model complex interactions are also discussed.

Gong, Kai↗

Defect Thermodynamics and Transport Properties of Proton Conducting Oxide BaZr 1–x Y x O 3–δ (x ≤ 0.1) Guided by Density Functional Theory Modeling

Density functional theory-based thermodynamic modeling was performed to determine the effect of humidity and H 2 /O 2 gas pressure on the defect chemistry and transport properties of proton conducting oxide BaZr 1-x Y x O 3-δ (x ≤ 0.1) in the temperature range of 800–1200K, relevant for solid oxide fuel/electrolysis cell applications. The first-principles charge defect analysis was carried out to obtain the defect energetic ensembles as a function of Fermi level as well as the dependence of the hydration and oxidation reaction energies on complex defect-dopant configurations. It is shown that oxygen vacancies introduced to compensate for the extra Ba vacancies may cause a slight increase in the concentration of hydroxyl and proton species upon hydration of Ba deficient BaZr 1-x Y x O 3-δ , while the overall proton diffusivity is predicted to decrease with increased proton hopping barriers upon trapping near the Ba vacancies. The developed defect model is further demonstrated to be able to describe the bulk defect chemistry and transport properties of BaZr 0.9 Y 0.1 O 3-δ under the solid oxide cell operating conditions. Finally, the theoretical framework developed in this work further allows the inclusion of configurational, energetic and electronic characteristics of the defects that can be used as a complementary tool to experimental measurements for testing various mechanistic pathways or to provide essential mechanistic data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Defect Thermodynamics and Transport Properties of Perovskite and Fluorite Materials for Solid-Oxide and Proton Conducting Oxide Cells Evaluated Based on Density Functional Theory Modeling

Density functional theory based defect thermodynamic modeling was performed to determine the effect of humidity and H2/O2 gas pressure on various defect chemistry and transport properties of perovskite and fluorite oxides for solid-oxide and proton-conducting-oxide cell applications, with inclusion of the electronic-conducting oxides (as electrodes) and insulating oxides (as electrolytes). Automatic defect generation workflow and first-principles charged defect analysis were implemented on NETL Joule supercomputer for modeling defect equilibria and transport properties of insulating oxides as electrolytes in SOCs and proton-conducting ceramic cells. A GNU Octave defect model subroutines were developed to facilitate defect modeling of electronic conducting oxides in a wide range of operating conditions guided by modeling and experiments. The model includes the hydride defect formation reaction under reducing conditions and allows to incorporate nonstoichiometry effects on the defect thermodynamic parameters. The developed model serves as a platform to facilitate fundamental understanding of the defect thermodynamics in SOC oxide materials and can be used as a novel tool in computational materials screening for SOC and other energy applications.

Lee, Yueh-Lin↗

Modeling Photolytic Decomposition of Energetically Functionalized Dodecanes

The photolytic stability of explosives and energetic functional groups is of importance for those who regularly handle or are exposed to explosives in typical environmental conditions. This study models the photolytic degradation of dodecane substituted with various energetic functional groups: azide, nitro, nitrate ester, and nitramine. For the studied molecules, it was found that excitons localize on the energetic functional group, no matter where they were initially formed, and thus, the predominant degradation pathway involves the degradation of the energetic functional group. The relative trends for both 4 and 8 eV excitation energies followed with what is expected from the relative stability of the energetic functional groups to thermal and sub-shock degradation. The one notable exception was the azide functional group; more work should be done to further understand the photolytic effects on the azide functional group.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗