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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Space Projects: Improvements Needed in Selecting Future Projects for Private Financing

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and NASA jointly selected seven projects for commercialization to reduce NASA's fiscal year 1990 budget request and to help achieve the goal of increasing private sector involvement in space. However, the efforts to privately finance these seven projects did not increase the commercial sector's involvement in space to the extent desired. The General Accounting Office (GAO) determined that the projects selected were not a fair test of the potential of increasing commercial investment in space at an acceptable cost to the government, primarily because the projects were not properly screened. That is, neither their suitability for commercialization nor the economic consequences of seeking private financing for them were adequately evaluated before selection. Evaluations and market tests done after selection showed that most of the projects were not viable candidates for private financing. GAO concluded that projects should not be removed from NASA's budget for commercial development until after careful screening has been done to determine whether adequate commercial demand exists, development risks are commercially acceptable and private financing is found or judged to be highly likely, and the cost effectiveness of such a decision is acceptable. Premature removal of projects from NASA's budget ultimately can cause project delays and increased costs when unsuccessful commercialization candidates must be returned to the budget. NASA also needs to ensure appropriate comparisons of government and private financing options for future commercialization projects.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2013

Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

paleoclimate↗
NASA NTRS2006

Projecting Future Scheduled Airline Demand, Schedules and NGATS Benefits Using TSAM

The Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM) developed by Virginia Tech s Air Transportation Systems Lab and NASA Langley can provide detailed analysis of the effects on the demand for air travel of a full range of NASA and FAA aviation projects. TSAM has been used to project the passenger demand for very light jet (VLJ) air taxi service, scheduled airline demand growth and future schedules, Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) benefits, and future passenger revenues for the Airport and Airway Trust Fund. TSAM can project the resulting demand when new vehicles and/or technology is inserted into the long distance (100 or more miles one-way) transportation system, as well as, changes in demand as a result of fare yield increases or decreases, airport transit times, scheduled flight times, ticket taxes, reductions or increases in flight delays, and so on. TSAM models all long distance travel in the contiguous U.S. and determines the mode choice of the traveler based on detailed trip costs, travel time, schedule frequency, purpose of the trip (business or non-business), and household income level of the traveler. Demand is modeled at the county level, with an airport choice module providing up to three airports as part of the mode choice. Future enplanements at airports can be projected for different scenarios. A Fratar algorithm and a schedule generator are applied to generate future flight schedules. This paper presents the application of TSAM to modeling future scheduled air passenger demand and resulting airline schedules, the impact of NGATS goals and objectives on passenger demand, along with projections for passenger fee receipts for several scenarios for the FAA Airport and Airway Trust Fund.

Dollyhigh, Samuel↗
NASA NTRS2006

Projecting Future Urbanization with Prescott College's Spatial Growth Model to Promote Environmental Sustainability and Smart Growth, A Case Study in Atlanta, Georgia

Planning is an integral element of good management and necessary to anticipate events not merely respond to them. Projecting the quantity and spatial distribution of urban growth is essential to effectively plan for the delivery of city services and to evaluate potential environmental impacts. The major drivers of growth in large urban areas are increasing population, employment opportunities, and quality of life attractors such as a favorable climate and recreation opportunities. The spatial distribution of urban growth is dictated by the amount and location of developable land, topography, energy and water resources, transportation network, climate change, and the existing land use configuration. The Atlanta region is growing very rapidly both in population and the consumption of forestland or low-density residential development. Air pollution and water availability are significant ongoing environmental issues. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model (SGM) was used to make growth projections for the metropolitan Atlanta region to 2010,2020 and 2030 and results used for environmental assessment in both business as usual and smart growth scenarios. The Prescott SGM is a tool that uses an ESRI ArcView extension and can be applied at the parcel level or more coarse spatial scales and can accommodate a wide range of user inputs to develop any number of growth rules each of which can be weighted depending on growth assumptions. These projections were used in conjunction with meteorological and air quality models to evaluate future environmental impacts. This presentation will focus on the application of the SGM to the 13-County Atlanta Regional Commission planning jurisdiction as a case study. The SGM will be described, including how rule sets are developed and the decision process for allocation of future development to available land use categories. Data inputs required to effectively run the model will be discussed. Spatial growth projections for ten, twenty, and thirty year planning horizons will be presented and results discussed, including regional climate and air quality impacts.

Estes, Maurice G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Multi-Model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements.We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multimodel mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N) yr−1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr−1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr−1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mg(N)m−2 yr−1 averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000). However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in all the RCPs. The new ACCMIP multimodel deposition dataset provides state-of-the-science, consistent and evaluated time slice (spanning 1850-2100) global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Effects of Projected Future Demand Including Very Light Jet Air-Taxi Operations on U.S. National Airspace System Delays as a Function of Next Generation Air Transportation System Airspace Capacity

This paper presents the results from a study which investigates the potential effects of the growth in air traffic demand including projected Very Light Jet (VLJ) air-taxi operations adding to delays experienced by commercial passenger air transportation in the year 2025. The geographic region studied is the contiguous United States (U.S.) of America, although international air traffic to and from the U.S. is included. The main focus of this paper is to determine how much air traffic growth, including VLJ air-taxi operations will add to enroute airspace congestion and determine what additional airspace capacity will be needed to accommodate the expected demand. Terminal airspace is not modeled and increased airport capacity is assumed.

Smith, Jerry↗
NASA NTRS2023

The Projected Future Degradation in Air Quality is Caused by More Abundant Natural Aerosols in a Warmer World

Previous studies suggest that greenhouse gas-induced warming can lead to increased fine particulate matter concentrations and degraded air quality. However, significant uncertainties remain regarding the sign and magnitude of the response to warming and the underlying mechanisms. Here, we show that thirteen models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 all project an increase in global average concentrations of fine particulate matter in response to rising carbon dioxide concentrations, but the range of increase across models is wide. The two main contributors to this increase are increased abundance of dust and secondary organic aerosols via intensified West African monsoon and enhanced emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, respectively. Much of the inter-model spread is related to different treatment of biogenic volatile organic compounds. Our results highlight the importance of natural aerosols in degrading air quality under current warming, while also emphasizing that improved understanding of biogenic volatile organic compounds emissions due to climate change is essential for numerically assessing future air quality.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗
NASA NTRS1967

Future projects

Comet-intercept space probe mission constraints, and suggested scientific payload for cosmogonical research

SPACE PROBE↗
NASA NTRS1974

Projected future space processing activities

A brief review is presented on where the space processing program stands with respect to its long range objectives and what plans have been made to pursue them in the next several years. These objectives are to make a permanent place for space processing as an integral part of the world's materials technology, and from this broad viewpoint there are two things that are clearly necessary to reach the program's goal. One of them is a space flight system large enough to support materials research and development work on a significant scale and eventually support manufacturing operations as well if these develop. The other is a group of materials scientists and engineers large enough to do space research and development on a scale that can impact materials science and technology and eventually develop manufacturing as well as research applications of space processing.

Bredt, J. H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

From the Upper Troposphere Through the Stratosphere: How Satellite Measurements Help Us Decode the Past to Better Project the Future

Decades of observations of key chemical species are allowing us to more fully understand processes important to transport and composition from the upper troposphere through the stratosphere. This talk will focus on a few examples and how they are informing our understanding of variability, trends, and future projections. The growth of the Antarctic ozone hole (late 1970s – mid 1990s) caused a dynamical perturbation to the Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation visible in ozone, one of our longest and best observed chemical constituents, and illustrates the connection between chemical change and the coupled radiative and dynamical response that challenges chemistry-climate models (CCMs). The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical stratosphere, however its impacts on stratospheric circulation and composition can be traced globally. The QBOs timing with respect to the seasonal cycle in each hemisphere is significant in understanding its impact on up to decadal scale variability. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which dominates tropical tropospheric interannual variability, also affects the stratosphere and its influence is visible in our growing record of tropospheric and stratospheric composition measurements. I will discuss how our knowledge of response has grown and how representation of these observed responses in CCMs is key both to understanding recent trends and to reducing uncertainty in future changes of composition.

Luke David Oman↗
NASA NTRS2006

Closure of Regenerative Life Support Systems: Results of the Lunar-Mars Life Support Test Project

Future long duration human exploration missions away from Earth will require closed-loop regenerative life support systems to reduce launch mass, reduce dependency on resupply and increase the level of mission self sufficiency. Such systems may be based on the integration of biological and physiocochemical processes to produce potable water, breathable atmosphere and nutritious food from metabolic and other mission wastes. Over the period 1995 to 1998 a series of ground-based tests were conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Johnson Space Center, to evaluate the performance of advanced closed-loop life support technologies with real human metabolic and hygiene loads. Named the Lunar-Mars Life Support Test Project (LMLSTP), four integrated human tests were conducted with increasing duration, complexity and closure. The first test, LMLSTP Phase I, was designed to demonstrate the ability of higher plants to revitalize cabin atmosphere. A single crew member spent 15 days within an atmospherically closed chamber containing 11.2 square meters of actively growing wheat. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen levels were maintained by control of the rate of photosynthesis through manipulation of light intensity or the availability of carbon dioxide and included integrated physicochemical systems. During the second and third tests, LMLSTP Phases II & IIa, four crew members spent 30 days and 60 days, respectively, in a larger sealed chamber. Advanced physicochemical life support hardware was used to regenerate the atmosphere and produce potable water from wastewater. Air revitalization was accomplished by using a molecular sieve and a Sabatier processor for carbon dioxide absorption and reduction, respectively, with oxygen generation performed by water hydrolysis. Production of potable water from wastewater included urine treatment (vapor compression distillation), primary treatment (ultrafiltration/reverse osmosis and multi-filtration) and post processing. For the Phase II test the water recovery rate ranged from 95 to 98%, depending on the processor. LMLSTP Phase III, the fourth test of the series, had a duration of 91 days and included four crew members. The test demonstrated an integration of physicochemical and biological technologies for air revitalization, water recovery and waste processing. Wheat supplemented the physicochemical air revitalization systems by providing approximately 25% of the oxygen required for the 4-person crew. The water recovery system included immobilized cell and trickling filter bioreactors for primary water treatment, reverse osmosis and air evaporation systems for secondary water treatment, followed by post processing. The 8 day initial supply of water was recycled through the chamber and crew 10 times over the course of the test. Grain from the wheat together with fresh lettuce from a small growth chamber within the crew chamber provided supplementation to the stored food system, but at a level less than 5% of the crew s caloric requirement. An incinerator was used to demonstrate mineralization of the crew s solid waste, with the combustion products (mainly carbon dioxide) returned to the wheat for conversion to oxygen.

Barta, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2013

Temperature Trends in the Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Connections with Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Water Vapor and Ozone

Satellite observations and chemistry-climate model experiments are used to understand the zonal structure of tropical lower stratospheric temperature, water vapor, and ozone trends. The warming in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo-Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal-mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry-climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature (hereafter SST) trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. Warming SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the warm pool region have led to enhanced moist heating in the upper troposphere, and in turn to a Gill-like response that extends into the lower stratosphere. The anomalous circulation has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. The radiative impact of these changes in trace gases is smaller than the direct impact of the moist heating. Projected future SSTs appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future SSTs are of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane.

water vapor↗
NASA NTRS2015

Connections Between the TTL and Sea Surface Temperatures: Interannual Variability and Trends

Comprehensive chemistry climate models and satellite data are used to investigate the forcing of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. As this region is the origination region for air parcels which enter the stratosphere, it is important to understand variability in this region on timescales ranging from the seasonal to decadal. The warming trend in the tropical upper troposphere over the past 30 years is strongest near the Indo Pacific warm pool, while the warming trend in the western and central Pacific is much weaker. In the lower stratosphere, these trends are reversed: the historical cooling trend is strongest over the Indo Pacific warm pool and is weakest in the western and central Pacific. These zonal variations are stronger than the zonal mean response in boreal winter. Targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that sea surface temperature trends are driving the zonal asymmetry in upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric tropical temperature trends. The anomalous circulation set up by the changing SSTs has led to zonal structure in the ozone and water vapor trends near the tropopause, and subsequently to less water vapor entering the stratosphere. Projected future sea surface temperatures appear to drive a temperature and water vapor response whose zonal structure is similar to the historical response. In the lower stratosphere, the changes in water vapor and temperature due to projected future sea surface temperatures is of similar strength to, though slightly weaker than, that due directly to projected future CO2, ozone, and methane. Finally, targeted experiments with a chemistry climate model are used to demonstrate that seasonality and the location of the peak warming of sea surface temperatures dictate the response of stratospheric water vapor to El Nino. In spring, El Nino events in which sea surface temperature anomalies peak in the eastern Pacific lead to a warming at the tropopause above the warm pool region, and subsequently to more stratospheric water vapor (consistent with previous work). However, in fall and in early winter, and also during El Nino events in which the sea surface temperature anomaly is found mainly in the central Pacific, the response is qualitatively different: temperature changes in the warm pool region are nonuniform and less water vapor enters the stratosphere. The difference in water vapor in the lower stratosphere between the two variants of El Nino approaches 0.3 ppmv, while the difference between the winter and spring responses exceeds 0.5 ppmv.

Tropical Tropopause Layer↗