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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Future trends in synchrotron science at NSLS-II

In this paper, we summarize briefly some of the future trends in synchrotron science as seen at the National Synchrotron Light Source II, a new, low emittance source recently commissioned at Brookhaven National Laboratory. We touch upon imaging techniques, the study of dynamics, the increasing use of multimodal approaches, the vital importance of data science, and finally, other enabling technologies. Each are presently undergoing a time of rapid change, driving the field of synchrotron science forward at an ever increasing pace. It is truly an exciting time and one in which Roger Cowley, to whom this journal issue is dedicated, would surely be both invigorated by, and at the heart of.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Workflows Community Summit 2024: Future Trends and Challenges in Scientific Workflows

The 2024 Workflows Community Summit report presents the outcomes of a three-day international gathering that brought together 109 experts from 18 countries to discuss future trends and challenges in scientific workflows. The summit focused on six key areas: time-sensitive workflows, convergence of AI and HPC workflows, multi-facility workflows, heterogeneous HPC environments, user experience and interfaces, and FAIR computational workflows. Discussions highlighted emerging challenges such as integrating AI with traditional HPC, managing workflows across diverse facilities, addressing heterogeneity in computing environments, and ensuring workflows are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). The report outlines recent advances, ongoing challenges, and provides recommendations for each topic area, emphasizing the need for standardization, improved interoperability, and the development of more sophisticated tools and frameworks to support the evolving landscape of scientific workflows in the era of exascale computing and AI integration.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future Trends in Nuclear Physics Computing

In nuclear physics (NP) today the study of quarks, gluons and their strong interactions extends across a broad research program at a varied range of collaborative scales, from a few collaborators up to large experiments at scales comparable to those typical of high energy physics (HEP). Overall, the software and computing efforts vary accordingly, from pragmatic do-it-yourself approaches among a few, to substantial organized software and computing activities within large experiments. With new experiments starting up and on the horizon [1], and rapidly increasing data volumes [2, 3] and processing demands even at small experiments, the NP community has in recent years been thinking about the next generation of data processing and analysis workflows that will maximize the science output. One context for this discussion has been a series of workshops, “Future Trends in Nuclear Physics Computing” [4]. The most recent in this series took place in Fall 2020, organized by the authors together with colleagues. The workshop focused on identifying the unique aspects of software and computing in NP, and discussing how the NP community could strengthen common efforts and chart a path forward for the next decade, sure to be an exciting one with rich ongoing scientific programs at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), Jefferson Lab (JLab), and other NP facilities, and culminating in datataking at the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) [5,6,7] in the early 2030s. Without claiming to present a collective view from the workshop and discussions since—fortunately this is not expected of us in this opinion editorial—we offer here our reflections on the topic, informed by the workshop and the summary we authored with our colleagues [8], as well as discussions and developments in the eventful time since.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Review on robot-assisted polishing: Status and future trends

Nowadays, precision components have been extensively used in various industries such as biomedicine, photonics, and optics. To achieve nanometric surface roughness, high-precision polishing is mandatory. Compared with the conventional polishing techniques, the robot-assisted polishing has the advantages of flexible working ranges and low cost. Therefore, it has been more widely deployed in demanding polishing tasks. However, few review articles were found on this topic to provide a general progress on the development of the robot-assisted polishing technology. Here in this paper reviews the recent advancement of the robot-assisted polishing. Firstly, the integration of robots with various polishing techniques is overviewed, followed by the introduction of the research status of constant force control in robot-assisted polishing. Then, the errors in typical robot-assisted polishing systems are analyzed, together with the corresponding compensation methods. At last, the future trends in the development of robot-assisted polishing are discussed. This review is intended as a roadmap for researchers or engineers who are interested in robot-assisted polishing or machining.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Past and Future Trends of Severe Storms

The objective of this research is to use machine learning methods to establish past trends in the severe storm record and build on this information to provide severe storms projections in a future climate. This objective aligns with Focal Area 3, which emphasizes big data analytics in combination with knowledge-guided AI.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Historical and future trends in South Asian monsoon low pressure systems in a high-resolution model ensemble

Historical trends in monsoon low pressure systems (LPS), the dominant rain-bearing weather system of South Asia, have been difficult to assess due to changes in the observing network. Future projections have also remained uncertain because prior studies concluded that many coarse-resolution climate models do not accurately simulate LPS. Here, we examine changes in South Asian monsoon LPS simulated by an ensemble of global models, including some with high spatial resolution, that we show skillfully represent LPS. In the ensemble mean, the number of strong LPS (monsoon depressions) decreased over the last 65 years (1950–2014) by about 15% while no trend was detected for weaker LPS (monsoon lows). The reduction in depression counts then moderated, yielding no trend in the periods 1980–2050 or 2015–2050. The ensemble mean projects a shift in genesis from ocean to land and an increase in LPS precipitation of at least 7% K −1 , which together contribute to a projected increase in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation over central India.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Dynamic Co-Evolution of Space Policy and Technology: Historical Overview and Lessons for Assessing Future Trends [Slides]

The course goal is to provide participants with better understanding of the dynamic evolution between space policy, technology and world events in order to (1) anticipate the potential impacts of evolving space security policy on technical research and development needs for current and future space operations; (2) anticipate how technical research and development advancements might shape future directions and implementation of space security policy; and (3) develop more impactful research and development proposals and effective policy initiatives.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Current state and future trends in boundary layer control on lifting surfaces

Successful flow control may bring numerous benefits, such as flow stabilization, flow reattachment, separation delay, drag reduction, lift increase, aerodynamic performance improvement, energy efficiency increase, shock delay or weakening, noise reduction, etc. For these purposes, many different flow control devices, which can be classified as passive, semi-active and active, have been designed and tested. This review paper aims to highlight the most promising and commonly employed boundary layer control methods as well as outline their potential in specific applications in aerospace and energy engineering. Referenced studies, performed on various geometries (flat plates, channels, airfoils, wings, blades, cylinders), are primarily numerical or experimental. Although enhanced aerodynamic performance is achieved in many cases, further research is required to draw general conclusions. This paper aims to demonstrate that, in the future, we may expect further developments of flow control actuators, as well as their increased application.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Facets of hydro power and future trends in a Nordic Context

Hydropower technologies bolster high penetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) in the net zero emissions scenarios. Nevertheless, there are various challenges to meeting the ambitious goal, such as stability, reliability, resiliency, security, lack of reactive power, voltage support and inertia, large-scale storage deployment and coordination, interconnectedness, demand-side response, higher thermal cycles with increased start/stops, and inadequate Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for system-wise VRE integration and profitability. This survey conducts a bottom-up analysis to unveil the opportunities to utilize hydropower facilities and disentangle the nested problem for intertwining design features, control algorithms, operation, optimization approaches, incentives, services, and market mechanisms using a three-pillar framework perspective: grid owners, power producers, and machine designers. The survey identified emerging trends in real-time and capacity markets, flexible power systems, and enhanced grid capabilities, including advanced voltage support and updated grid codes. These developments present significant opportunities for hydropower, such as achieving super-flexibility through hybridization, expanded reactive power capabilities, and advanced operational modes like a synchronous condenser and power adequator functionalities. These opportunities require novel design philosophies — including new winding, stator, and rotor configurations, optimized ventilation, and active cooling systems — to enhance performance under stressed grid and climate conditions. Finally, integrating climate and energy models for multi-basin optimization with finer spatial and temporal granularity enhances the planning accuracy for water management of hydropower while addressing environmental challenges. The review delivers helpful prospective suggestions and tools that would serve researchers, power engineers, and stakeholders in making decisions about hydropower technologies and services in 2050 and beyond.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermomechanical Reliability Aspects of Automotive Power Electronics: Current Status and Future Trends

Common failure locations (e.g., wire bonds, solder interface) and mechanisms within traditional automotive power electronics package designs and reliability concerns associated with packaging at higher temperatures and higher heat fluxes will be discussed. Examples of packaging solutions that increase mechanical reliability will be presented and state-of-health (SOH) estimation using offline and online (in situ) techniques will be described.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Assessment of Commercial Building Energy and Carbon Emissions in the Northwestern Region Under Future Weather Trend

The future climate significantly impacts building performance and increases uncertainties in energy simulations. A rising temperature trend is expected to heighten cooling loads during summer and result in more carbon emissions. Understanding the impact of future climate on building performance is significant for policymakers to make informed decisions. Building retrofit measures can improve building energy efficiency and reduce operational carbon emissions, yet their effects under future climate conditions have not been fully investigated so far. Thus, we proposed an assessment methodology for evaluating long-term energy consumption and operational carbon reduction potential using a building stock dataset. For this study, commercial buildings in the northwestern (NW) region were utilized to assess the impacts of future climate and building retrofit. In addition, we selected Montana with a cold and dry climate as an example to analyze and discuss the carbon emission reduction potential in buildings. The main findings are: (1) Under future climate trends, changes in energy use intensity (EUI) will fluctuate due to variations in heating and cooling degree-days (HDDs and CDDs) and increasing HDDs will lead to increasing EUI. (2) After applying annual building retrofitting, the long-term EUI reduction potential of buildings in the NW region will decrease with the increasing retrofitting degree, and the short-term EUI reduction potential will be impacted by the change of heating and cooling degree days. (3) In Montana, the long-term carbon intensity reduction potential of retrofitted buildings will decrease under future climate trends with the increasing renewable energy penetration.

building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Intensity‐Duration‐Frequency Curves of Extreme Precipitation in the Midwest United States From Convection‐Permitting Modeling

Abstract During the last four decades, global warming has statistically significant intensified extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States (defined here as the region covering Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky), leading to increased risks to human life, property, and infrastructure. To enable climate change adaptation and resilience across various economic and social sectors in this region, updated information about future climate changes, specifically at finer spatial scales, is essential. Leveraging a new 150‐year dynamical downscaling data set at convection‐permitting resolution, this study introduces a framework to construct the projected future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves of heavy precipitation, which are prominent tools for infrastructure design and water resources management. This framework generates IDF curves at both sub‐daily and multi‐day duration utilizing hourly in situ observations as well as quantile‐based statistical techniques in bias‐correction and return levels selection. The assumption of non‐stationarity in the distribution parameter fitting process is also implemented in this workflow. Compared to historical IDF curves for 1980–2022, future projected IDF curves for 2058–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15% and 25%, respectively, across 74 stations, considering both annual and seasonal timescales. Future projections suggest that extreme precipitation events may become more severe across six investigated return periods, with longer return periods showing a greater increase. The frequency of future extreme precipitation events in the Midwest region is also projected to double. Furthermore, current results reveal spatial heterogeneity of future trends across stations owing to the high‐resolution input data set. Plain Language Summary This study investigates the evolving nature of extreme precipitation events in the Midwestern United States under a changing climate. By leveraging a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling data set, we construct projected intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves for future extreme rainfall events. These curves serve as vital tools for infrastructure planning and water resource management. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the region. Future projected IDF curves for the late century indicate an average intensity increase of approximately 15%–25% compared to historical values. Moreover, the frequency of such events is expected to double. Spatial heterogeneity in future trends is observed across different stations within the Midwest, highlighting the importance of high‐resolution modeling in capturing localized climate variability. These findings underscore the urgent need for climate adaptation strategies to mitigate the increasing risks associated with extreme precipitation events in the region. Key Points This study introduces a workflow to construct future intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves over the Midwest United States using a new convection‐permitting modeling data set The current IDF construction workflow reproduces well the historical observed IDF 30 curves in summer months with median relative errors of 2.4% among 74 stations and 6 investigated durations The projected IDF curves show diverse future trends of extreme precipitation across stations, with intensity increases of approximately 15% and 25% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively, and a doubling of frequency on average

Nguyen, Trung↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large and poorly understood. Here, using climate model large ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate the future occurrence of compound hot–dry events over land. This occurs because local warming will be large enough that future droughts will always coincide with at least moderately hot extremes, even in a 2°C warmer world. By contrast, precipitation trends are often weak and equivocal in sign, depending on the model, region and internal climate variability. Therefore, constraining regional precipitation trends will also constrain future compound hot–dry events. These results help to assess future frequencies of other compound extremes characterized by strongly different trends in the drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A review of machine learning in building load prediction

The surge of machine learning in recent years has been empowering engineer modeling in various fields. The decreasing hardware cost, increasing data accessibility, and advances of building automation system (BAS) allow the collection and storage of a significant amount of building operation data. The two facts provide great opportunities of applying machine learning to building energy systems modeling and analysis. There are a great number of research papers on this topic but there lacks a comprehensive and general review to summarize the current development, limitations, gaps and future trend. In this review paper series, machine learning techniques in building energy system modeling and analysis are reviewed under the organization and logic of the machine learning definition by Tom M. Mitchell: a computer program is said to learn from experience E with respect to some class of tasks T and performance measure P if its performance at tasks in T, as measured by P, improves with experience E. This paper is the first part of the review paper series, which focuses on building load prediction. First, the applications of building load prediction model (task T) are reviewed. Then, the modeling algorithms improving machine learning performance and accuracy (performance P) are reviewed. At the same time, the literature on the data perspective for modeling (experience E), including data engineering from sensors level to data level, pre-processing, feature extraction and selection, is reviewed. Finally, what is well-studied and what is lacking but with great potential are concluded; the gaps between present and future utilization of machine learning techniques are identified; the future trend and development are also predicted. The target readers of this paper are not only researchers from the building side who can get exposed to cutting edge machine learning tools, but also those from machine learning side who can understand the potential and challenge to apply machine learning in buildings.

Liang, Zhang↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wind turbine drivetrains: state-of-the-art technologies and future development trends

Abstract. This paper presents the state-of-the-art technologies and development trends of wind turbine drivetrains – the system that converts kinetic energy of the wind to electrical energy – in different stages of their life cycle: design, manufacturing, installation, operation, lifetime extension, decommissioning and recycling. Offshore development and digitalization are also a focal point in this study. Drivetrain in this context includes the whole power conversion system: main bearing, shafts, gearbox, generator and power converter. The main aim of this article is to review the drivetrain technology development as well as to identify future challenges and research gaps. The main challenges in drivetrain research identified in this paper include drivetrain dynamic responses in large or floating turbines, aerodynamic and farm control effects, use of rare-earth material in generators, improving reliability through prognostics, and use of advances in digitalization. These challenges illustrate the multidisciplinary aspect of wind turbine drivetrains, which emphasizes the need for more interdisciplinary research and collaboration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗