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At least 19 records

Data source authentication of synchrophasor measurement devices based on 1D-CNN and GRU

Synchrophasor measurement devices (SMDs) have been widely deployed to support real-time monitoring and control of power systems. In the meantime, data spoofing has emerged in recent years. Therefore, it is of great importance to study data authentication algorithms for detecting and defending the data spoofing effectively. Here, a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN) is utilized to extract temporal signatures hidden in frequency, voltage angle and amplitude data; then the gated recurrent unit (GRU) employs these temporal signatures for data source authentication. In case studies, the performances of different algorithms are tested in large-scale power systems with numerous SMDs for the first time, and comparisons among different algorithms show that the proposed algorithm can achieve a higher accuracy of data source authentication with a shorter time window.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Towards data-driven constitutive modelling for granular materials via micromechanics-informed deep learning

The analytical description of path-dependent elastic-plastic responses of a granular system is highly complicated because of continuously evolving microstructures and strain localisation within the system undergoing deformation. This study offers an alternative to the current analytical paradigm by developing micromechanics-informed machine-learning based constitutive modelling approaches for granular materials. A set of critical variables associated with the constitutive behaviour of granular materials are identified through an incremental stress-strain relationship analysis. Depending on the strategy to exploit the priori micromechanical knowledge, three different training strategies are explored. The first model uses only the measurable external variables to make stress predictions; the second model utilises a directed graph to link all the external strain sequences and internal microstructural evolution variables into a single prediction model comprised of a series of sub-mappings, and the third model explicitly integrates the physically important non-temporal properties with external strain paths into training through an enhanced Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). These three models show satisfactory agreement with unseen test specimens based on multi-directional loading cases. The basic features and potential applications of each model are explained. Lastly, the key factors for constitutive training and limitations of the current work are also discussed in detail.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Process prediction and detection of faults using probabilistic bidirectional recurrent neural networks on real plant data

Attaining Industry 4.0 for manufacturing operations requires advanced monitoring systems and real-time data analytics of plant data, among other topics. We propose a Probabilistic Bidirectional Recurrent Network (PBRN) for industrial process monitoring for the early detection of faults. The model is based on a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network that allows the model to retain long-term dependencies between sensor data along a time horizon, hence learning the dynamic behavior of the process. To reduce the false-positive detection rate of the model, we compel the model to learn from a highly noisy sensor reading while outputting noise-free sensor outputs. The performance of the proposed model is compared to other data-driven statistical process monitoring schemes using real plant data from an industrial Air Separations Unit (ASU) containing noisy sensor readings. We show that the model can learn from noisy data without reducing its performance. Using two different fault cases, we demonstrate the model’s ability to carry out early fault detection with average false-positive rates of 2.9% and 4.9% for both fault cases. The missed detection rates are 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Monitoring of Liquid Metal Reactor Heater Zones with Recurrent Neural Network Learning of Temperature Time Series

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors (ARs), such as sodium fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCRs) utilize high-temperature fluids at ambient pressure. To melt the fluid during reactor startup and prevent fluid freezing during cooldown, the thermal–hydraulic systems of such ARs include heater zones consisting of specific heaters with controllers, temperature sensors, and thermal insulation. The failure of heater zones due to insulation material degradation or improper installation, resulting in parasitic heat losses, can lead to fluid freezing. The detection of faults using a heat-transfer model is difficult because of a lack of knowledge of the experimental details. Data-driven machine learning of heater zone temperature time series offers a viable alternative. In this study, we benchmarked the performance of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in an analysis of heat-up transient temperature time series of heater zones installed on a liquid sodium vessel. The RNN models include long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks, as well as their bi-directional variants, BiLSTM and BiGRU. Anomalous temperature points were designated using a percentile-based threshold applied to residual fluctuations in the detrended temperature time series. Additionally, the impact of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) method on detection accuracy was examined. The RNN models’ performance was assessed using precision, recall, and F 1 score metrics. Results demonstrated that RNN models effectively detect anomalies in temperature time series with the best models for each heater zone achieving F 1 scores of over 93%. To explain the variations in RNN model performance across different heater zones, we used Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence to quantify the relative entropy between training and testing data, and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) to assess long-range temporal correlations. For datasets with strong long-range correlations and minimal relative entropy between training and testing data, GRU is the best-performing model. When the data exhibits weaker long-term correlations and a significant relative entropy between training and testing distributions, BiGRU shows the best performance. For the data sets with intermediate values of both KL divergence and DFA, the best performance is obtained with LSTM and BiLSTM, respectively.

gated recurrent unit↗

Real-time biomass feedstock particle quality detection using image analysis and machine vision

Abstract A common and costly challenge in the nascent biorefinery industry is the consistent handling and conveyance of biomass feedstock materials, which can vary widely in their chemical, physical, and mechanical properties. Solutions to cope with varying feedstock qualities will be required, including advanced process controls to adjust equipment and reject feedstocks that do not meet a quality standard. In this work, we present and evaluate methods to autonomously assess corn stover feedstock quality in real time and provide data to process controls with low-cost camera hardware. We explore the use of neural networks to classify feedstocks based on actual processing behavior and pixel matrix feature parameterization to further assess particle attributes that may explain the variable processing behavior. We used the pretrained ResNet neural network coupled with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) time-series classifier trained on our image data, resulting in binary classification of feedstock anomalies with favorable performance. The textural aspects of the image data were statistically analyzed to determine if the textural features were predictive of operational disruptions. The significant textural features were angular second moment, prominence, mean height of surface profile, mean resultant vector, shade, skewness, variation of the polar facet orientation, and direction of azimuthal facets. Expansion of these models is recommended across a wider variety of labeled feedstock images of different qualities and species to develop a more robust tool that may be deployed using low-cost cameras within biorefineries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Robust deep learning framework for constitutive relations modeling

Modeling the full-range deformation behaviors of materials under complex loading and materials conditions is a significant challenge for constitutive relations (CRs) modeling. Here, we propose a general encoder-decoder deep learning framework that can model high-dimensional stress-strain data and complex loading histories with robustness and universal capability. The framework employs an encoder to project high-dimensional input information (e.g., loading history, loading conditions, and materials information) to a lower-dimensional hidden space and a decoder to map the hidden representation to the stress of interest. We evaluated various encoder architectures, including gated recurrent unit (GRU), GRU with attention, temporal convolutional network (TCN), and the Transformer encoder, on two complex stress-strain datasets that were designed to include a wide range of complex loading histories and loading conditions. All architectures achieved excellent test results with an root-mean-square error (RMSE) below 1 MPa. Additionally, we analyzed the capability of the different architectures to make predictions on out-of-domain applications, with an uncertainty estimation based on deep ensembles. The proposed approach provides a robust alternative to empirical/semi-empirical models for CRs modeling, offering the potential for more accurate and efficient materials design and optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Online evolutionary neural architecture search for multivariate non-stationary time series forecasting

Time series forecasting (TSF) is one of the most important tasks in data science. TSF models are usually pre-trained with historical data and then applied on future unseen datapoints. However, real-world time series data is usually non-stationary and models trained offline usually face problems from data drift. Models trained and designed in an offline fashion can not quickly adapt to changes quickly or be deployed in real-time. To address these issues, this work presents the Online NeuroEvolution-based Neural Architecture Search (ONE-NAS) algorithm, which is a novel neural architecture search method capable of automatically designing and dynamically training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for online forecasting tasks. Without any pre-training, ONE-NAS utilizes populations of RNNs that are continuously updated with new network structures and weights in response to new multivariate input data. ONE-NAS is tested on real-world, large-scale multivariate wind turbine data as well as the univariate Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) dataset. These results demonstrate that ONE-NAS outperforms traditional statistical time series forecasting methods, including online linear regression, fixed long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models trained online, as well as state-of-the-art, online ARIMA strategies. Additionally, results show that utilizing multiple populations of RNNs which are periodically repopulated provide significant performance improvements, allowing this online neural network architecture design and training to be successful.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effects of input gradient regularization on neural networks time-series forecasting of thermal power systems

This study proposes using neural networks, specifically gated recurrent unit (GRU), long-short-term memory (LSTM), and transformer networks, to improve control strategies in a 450 MW coal-fired power plant. However, neural networks face issues of becoming overly dependent on just a few variables to make predictions, which negatively impacts control decisions that rely on the model to determine the value of all manipulated variables. The paper introduces regularization techniques, including noise injection and input gradient regularization, during the training phase. Here, the work presents novel contributions in adapting neural networks to control industrial systems and applying regularization techniques from computer vision to industrial process control. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of input gradient regularization in reducing model dependence on subsets of variables, emphasizing the balance between fidelity and controllability. Further exploration is recommended, including the development of recurrent transformers, closed-loop control testing, and a sensitivity analysis on computer models to provide further insight.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models

Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A comparison of machine learning surrogate models of street-scale flooding in Norfolk, Virginia

Low-lying coastal cities, exemplified by Norfolk, Virginia, face the challenge of street flooding caused by rainfall and tides, which strain transportation and sewer systems and can lead to personal and property damage. While high-fidelity, physics-based simulations provide accurate predictions of urban pluvial flooding, their computational complexity renders them unsuitable for real-time applications. Using data from Norfolk rainfall events between 2016 and 2018, this study compares the performance of a previous surrogate model based on a random forest algorithm with two deep learning models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The comparison of deep learning to the random forest algorithm is motivated by the desire to utilize a machine learning architecture that allows for the future inclusion of common uncertainty quantification techniques and the effective integration of relevant, multi-modal features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coupling a recurrent neural network to SPAD TCSPC systems for real-time fluorescence lifetime imaging

Fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLI) has been receiving increased attention in recent years as a powerful diagnostic technique in biological and medical research. However, existing FLI systems often suffer from a tradeoff between processing speed, accuracy, and robustness. Inspired by the concept of Edge Artificial Intelligence (Edge AI), we propose a robust approach that enables fast FLI with no degradation of accuracy. This approach couples a recurrent neural network (RNN), which is trained to estimate the fluorescence lifetime directly from raw timestamps without building histograms, to SPAD TCSPC systems, thereby drastically reducing transfer data volumes and hardware resource utilization, and enabling real-time FLI acquisition. We train two variants of the RNN on a synthetic dataset and compare the results to those obtained using center-of-mass method (CMM) and least squares fitting (LS fitting). Results demonstrate that two RNN variants, gated recurrent unit (GRU) and long short-term memory (LSTM), are comparable to CMM and LS fitting in terms of accuracy, while outperforming them in the presence of background noise by a large margin. To explore the ultimate limits of the approach, we derive the Cramer-Rao lower bound of the measurement, showing that RNN yields lifetime estimations with near-optimal precision. To demonstrate real-time operation, we build a FLI microscope based on an existing SPAD TCSPC system comprising a 32 x 32 SPAD sensor named Piccolo. Four quantized GRU cores, capable of processing up to 4 million photons per second, are deployed on the Xilinx Kintex-7 FPGA that controls the Piccolo. Powered by the GRU, the FLI setup can retrieve real-time fluorescence lifetime images at up to 10 frames per second. The proposed FLI system is promising and ideally suited for biomedical applications, including biological imaging, biomedical diagnostics, and fluorescence-assisted surgery, etc.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

GRUMDN: A Multi-Task Model for Predicting Human Patterns-of-Life from Stay Transition Data

Understanding human patterns-of-life (PoL) is essential towards ensuring safe and secure indoor facility environment as well as outdoor urban environment. Prediction of human movement in between places of interest is vital in understanding human PoL. Movement between spaces maybe represented and detected in one of the two forms: 1) trajectories: locations measured at regular time intervals by mobile sensors, bluetooth or GPS sensors; or 2) stay transitions: semantic PoI (points of interest) and stay duration data measurable by eventbased sensors that collect data when a check-in or check-out event is detected. Stay transition data provides a more compressed data format compared to trajectories data, especially in situations with longer stay durations, while preserving the information necessary for PoL analysis. Now as introduced briefly in the paper, our deployed end application (Digital Twin of a facility with non-player characters, besides the interactive user in virtual reality) needed a well-performing and validated AI/ML model for simulating high quality stay transitions behavior. In this study we thus primarily present our findings with developing and validating that model, which is a multi-task neural network for stay transition prediction. The neural network consists of two heads, for corresponding two tasks of stay category prediction and stay duration prediction. We evaluated gated recurrent units and multi-layer perceptrons of varying network sizes for stay category prediction; while mixture density networks, noisy generator-only networks, and generative adversarial networks of varying network sizes for stay duration prediction. We have then evaluated four multi-task models, constructed by combining these specialized models, on their ability to predict stay transition data. We tested our models on datasets from two different cases: 1) a simulation-generated dataset of indoor movement within the HFIR (high flux isotope reactor) nuclear reactor facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and 2) the GeoLife human mobility dataset of outdoor urban movement available in literature. Our results indicate that GRUMDN, which combines gated recurrent units (GRU) for stay category prediction task, and mixture density networks (MDN) for stay duration prediction task, did overall outperform other multitask models and the current state-of-the-art.

Gunaratne, Chathika [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225088745↗

Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification" Willard et al. (2025).

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores the effect of different ensemble construction techniques across different common machine learning (ML) architectures for predictions in unmonitored basins. Modeling was done using long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), temporal convolution network (TCN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The ensemble construction techniques investigated include ensemble by random weight initialization, differing hyperparameters, different random subsets of training data, different subselections of input features, different architectures, and Monte Carlo Dropout. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025).Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code:- data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repositoryData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2025streamensembles,author = {Jared Willard and Charuleka Varadharajan},title = {Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification"},year = {2024},doi = {10.15485/2527393},publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository},url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2527393}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification". 2025. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning for Slow Spill Regulation in the Fermilab Delivery Ring for Mu2e

A third-integer resonant slow extraction system is being developed for the Fermilab’s Delivery Ring to deliver protons to the Mu2e experiment. During a slow extraction process, the beam on target is liable to experience small intensity variations due to many factors. Owing to the experiment’s strict requirements in the quality of the spill, a Spill Regulation System (SRS) is currently under design. The SRS primarily consists of three components - slow regulation, fast regulation, and harmonic content tracker. In this presentation, we shall present the investigations of using Machine Learning (ML) in the fast regulation system, including further optimizations of PID controller gains for the fast regulation, prospects of an ML agent completely replacing the PID controller using supervised learning schemes such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) ML models, the simulated impact and limitation of machine response characteristics on the effectiveness of both PID and ML regulation of the spill. We also present here nascent results of Reinforcement Learning efforts, including continuous-action soft actor-critic methods, to regulate the spill rate.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Deep Learning Predicts Stress–Strain Relations of Granular Materials Based on Triaxial Testing Data

This study presents an AI-based constitutive modelling framework wherein the prediction model directly learns from triaxial testing data by combining discrete element modelling (DEM) and deep learning. A constitutive learning strategy is proposed based on the generally accepted frame-indifference assumption in constructing material constitutive models. The low-dimensional principal stress-strain sequence pairs, measured from discrete element modelling of triaxial testing, are used to train recurrent neural networks, and then the predicted principal stress sequence is augmented to other high-dimensional or general stress tensor via coordinate transformation. Through detailed hyperparameter investigations, it is found that long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) networks have similar prediction performance in constitutive modelling problems, and both satisfactorily predict the stress responses of granular materials subjected to a given unseen strain path. Furthermore, the unique merits and ongoing challenges of data-driven constitutive models for granular materials are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flight Trajectory Prediction Based on Hybrid-Recurrent Networks

The development of future technologies for the National Airspace System (NAS) will be reliant on a new communications infrastructure capable of managing the limited available spectrum for communications among aircraft and ground systems. Emerging approaches to autonomous allocation of aviation spectrum mostlyrely on machine learning techniques, where 4D (longitude, latitude, altitude, time) trajectory prediction is an important data input to enable real-time resource allocation. This study explores and evaluates effective data sources and deep recurrent neural network techniques when determining flight trajectories. Specifically, data are collected and evaluated in a 100-day and 14-day period. Sources of data include NASA Sherlock Data Warehouse, MIT Lincoln Labs Corridor Integrated Weather Service (CIWS), and assorted NOAA weather datasets. Deep learning models for 4D predictions all utilize a hybrid-recurrent technique. A baseline model is considered via the convolutional-LSTM design from the existing literature. The modified design considers Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), Independently Recurrent Neural Networks (IndRNN), and stand-alone self-attention layers. Results indicatethe effectiveness of LSTM and GRUcells for state-of-the-art data processing (interpolation). Additionally, GRUs may be quickly trained with limited data, allowing for exacting improvements with optimizer selection. Attention mechanisms provide notable performance improvements to convolutional layers and may extend dimensional capabilities of a learning model. Finally, NOAA measurements provide only a supplemental value, requiring support from tailored measurements for Air Traffic Management.

Nathan Schimpf↗

Third-integer Resonant Extraction Regulation System for Mu2e

A third-integer resonant slow extraction system is being developed for Fermilab's Delivery Ring to deliver protons to the upcoming Mu2e experiment. The timescale of the extraction (or spill) duration is 43 milliseconds, which is extremely short and unprecedented. Additionally, the experiment's strict and challenging requirements on the quality of the spill at this time scale has led to the development of a new Spill Regulation System (SRS) design. The SRS primarily consists of three components - slow regulation, fast regulation, and harmonic content suppressor. Contributions to the first two components of the SRS, i.e., Slow Regulation and Fast Regulation subsystems, will be presented in which new adaptive learning algorithm schemes for the slow regulation of the spill -- validated using particle tracking simulations -- shall be described. In addition to these novel methods for the enhancement of the spill regulation system, results of employing Machine Learning in enhancing the performance of the resonant extraction are also presented. At the forefront of applying ML techniques to solve non-linear accelerator control problems, this work includes optimizing the PID gains as well as the replacement of the traditional PID controller using Recurrent Neural Networks and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) ML models to achieve efficiencies greater than a PID controller. Cutting-edge on-going Reinforcement Learning efforts, including an actor-critic family of learning algorithms, to regulate the spill rate will be reviewed, as well as present analytical calculations pertaining the transit time of particles in a third-integer resonant extraction. Detailed numerical investigations and validations of such calculations, the model of which could be exported and reliably used in future analytical modeling of any resonant extraction, are discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗