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At least 19 records

Generalizability of Manual Control Skills Between Control Tasks of Varying Difficulty

This paper presents the results of an experiment that was performed at NASA Ames Research Center using 18 participants in two different groups who trained a task for ten days, with the goal of identifying how skill generalization would occur between two similar tasks of varying difficulty. A cybernetic approach was used. The first group was trained in a simple one-dimensional tracking task and transferred to a difficult two-dimensional tracking task. For the second group, this was reversed. Training with a simple task before transferring to the difficult task resulted in a slower convergence to final performance. However, it did allow participants to start with a better initial performance in the difficult task. Furthermore, after training with a simple task, participants controlled with a higher gain and generated lower lead time constants. However, possibly due to the number of participants, this experiment did not find any statistical evidence to support the conclusion that training with a simple task version helps in learning a more complex task.

skill generalizability↗

Generalizability of Manual Control Skills between Control Tasks of Varying Difficulty

This paper presents the results of an experiment that was performed at NASA Ames Research Center using 18 participants in two different groups who trained a task for ten days, with the goal of identifying how skill generalization would occur between two similar tasks of varying difficulty. A cybernetic approach was used. The first group was trained in a simple one-dimensional tracking task and transferred to a difficult two-dimensional tracking task. For the second group, this was reversed. Training with a simple task before transferring to the difficult task resulted in a slower convergence to final performance. However, it did allow participants to start with a better initial performance in the difficult task. Furthermore, after training with a simple task, participants controlled with a higher gain and generated lower lead time constants. However, possibly due to the number of participants, this experiment did not find any statistical evidence to support the conclusion that training with a simple task version helps in learning a more complex task.

Pieters, Marc A.↗

What Went Wrong: A Survey of Wildfire UAS Mishaps through Named Entity Recognition

Increasingly, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being applied to wildfire incidents for tasks such as mapping, aerial ignition, and delivery. As a result, incident reporting systems for wildfires are beginning to accumulate data related to UAS mishaps in wildfire response. In this research, we apply state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) techniques to develop a custom Named Entity Recognition (NER) model which extracts a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)-style survey of wildfire UAS mishaps reported in SAFECOM. The custom NER model is built by fine-tuning an existing (BERT) model, resulting in a generalizable NER model that can extract engineering relevant entities including failure modes, causes, effects, control processes, and recommendations from any failure-relevant text. Similar mishaps are clustered and reported as single rows within the FMEA. For each cluster, frequency, severity, and overall risk are computed. The methodology can be applied as part of a broader safety management system to track trends in mishaps and discover knowledge that can be utilized to improve safety outcomes and system performance.

Machine Learning↗

What Went Wrong: A Survey of Wildfire UAS Mishaps through Named Entity Recognition

Increasingly, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being applied to wildfire incidents for tasks such as mapping, aerial ignition, and delivery. As a result, aviation incident reporting systems for wildfires are beginning to accumulate data related to UAS mishaps in wildfire response. In this research, we apply state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) techniques to develop a custom Named Entity Recognition (NER) model which extracts entities relevant to safety analysts. The custom NER model is built by fine-tuning an existing Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT) model, resulting in a generalizable NER model that can extract engineering relevant entities including failure modes, causes, effects, control processes, and recommendations from failure-relevant text. This model performs passably, with a weighted average f1 score of 0.33 across entity types, indicating more labeled training data is needed. Extracted entities are used to form a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)-style survey of wildfire UAS mishaps reported using the SAFECOM system. Similar mishaps are manually clustered and reported as single rows within an FMEA. Foreach cluster, we compute frequency, severity, and overall riskin accordance with FAA standards. This methodology can beapplied as part of a broader safety management system totrack trends in mishaps (e.g., likelihood, severity) and discoverknowledge (e.g., causes, effects) that can be utilized to improvesafety outcomes and system performance.

Machine Learning↗

What Went Wrong: A Survey of Wildfire UAS Mishaps through Named Entity Recognition

Increasingly, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are being applied to wildfire incidents for tasks such as mapping, aerial ignition, and delivery. As a result, incident reporting systems for wildfires are beginning to accumulate data related to UAS mishaps in wildfire response. In this research, we apply state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) techniques to develop a custom Named Entity Recognition (NER) model which extracts a Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA)-style survey of wildfire UAS mishaps reported in SAFECOM. The custom NER model is built by fine-tuning an existing (BERT) model, resulting in a generalizable NER model that can extract engineering relevant entities including failure modes, causes, effects, control processes, and recommendations from any failure-relevant text. Similar mishaps are clustered and reported as single rows within the FMEA. For each cluster, frequency, severity, and overall risk are computed. The methodology can be applied as part of a broader safety management system to track trends in mishaps and discover knowledge that can be utilized to improve safety outcomes and system performance.

Machine Learning↗

Strategies for Identifying Resilient Behavior In Aviation

When we imagine a situation where people fly aircraft and nothing scary happens, we assume it is the system that affords this phenomenon. That is, the overall design is the cause of the success. However, this is not always true. There are many examples of how the presence of a human in the system is the reason for a successful outcome, despite flaws in the system’s design. This resilient behavior is often overlooked and challenging to characterize. In an attempt to identify this phenomenon in a generalizable way, we named and investigated two strategies, as well as identification methods, that exemplify resilient performance: 1) controls; and 2) modifications. First, controls are resilient actions in situations known to be problematic. To capture this, instead of looking at the examples of how the problem became a reality, we look at the examples of how the problem was successfully avoided or controlled. For example, a country road may have a hairpin turn where a higher-than-normal rate of accidents occur. Given that there is a likely system flaw identified, we would look at how the successful drivers navigated the turn. This can be accomplished using current safety reporting systems. Second, modifications are augmentations or changes that people create to fill in the gap between work-as-imagined and work-as-done. This type of resilient performance is directly related to poor design. In aviation, work-as-imagined is often scripted explicitly, so it can be compared to work-as-done through the use of examining system-generated data as well as narrative reports written by the system operators. These two approaches aim to identify resilient human actions to better understand how current systems function, as well as how people contribute to successes that were otherwise unknown.

human factors↗

A Koopman-based residual modeling approach for the control of a soft robot arm

Soft robots are challenging to model and control due to their poorly defined kinematics and nonlinear dynamics. Recently, Koopman operator theory has been shown capable of constructing control-oriented soft robot models from data. However, building these models requires extensive data collection and they do not necessarily generalize well outside of the training observations. This paper presents a more data-efficient and generalizable approach to soft robot modeling that first identifies a physics-based Koopman model then supplements it with a data-driven residual Koopman model. The resulting combined model is linear and thus compatible with real-time model-based control techniques such as Model Predictive Control (MPC). The efficacy of the approach is demonstrated on several simulated systems and on a real soft robot arm, where it is shown to generate models that are more accurate than purely physics-based models and require less data to construct than purely data-driven models. Using a model-based controller, the soft arm is able to successfully track end effector trajectories, perform a pick-and-place task, and write on a dry-erase board, showcasing the applicability of this framework to increase the capabilities of soft robotic systems.

Daniel Bruder↗

Knowledge Discovery for Early Failure Assessment of Complex Engineered Systems Using Natural Language Processing

Emerging complex engineered systems may have unexpected safety issues due to novel operational environments, increasing autonomy, human-machine interaction, and other factors. To prevent failures in operation or testing that necessitate costly redesign, it is desirable to predict likely failure modes early in the design process. Text-based information about past engineering failures presents one possible solution by facilitating the retrieval of information that can inform new designs. However, identifying documents containing relevant information and extracting required information can be prohibitively time-consuming when implemented at scale. In this research, an automated natural language processing-based framework is proposed to discover relevant knowledge from documents containing failure-related design information. Documents containing usable information are filtered using sentiment analysis based on a custom lexicon specialized for engineering design and by filtering out documents containing only irrelevant topics. Next, from the identified usable documents, information relating to engineering failures, contributing factors that can be controlled at design time (“risk factors”), and recommended preventative actions are extracted. Semantic similarity is then used to group similar pieces of extracted information for improved generalizability. The proposed framework is applied to NASA’s Lessons Learned Information System (LLIS). The framework can be used to identify documents containing usable failure-related design information from other databases, extract relevant information from these documents, and generalize the acquired knowledge such that it can be applied to novel systems.

Sequoia R. Andrade↗

From Aeronautics to Space: Lessons in Human Automation

Civilian air flight continues on a growth curve, as more and more people utilize air travel to meet business and personal travel needs: This consumer-driven demand has resulted in the adoption of new methods to increase air system capacity and to make the air transportation system increasingly more efficient. As a consequence, civilian aviation, as an industry, has assumed a leading role in the use of automated systems, and, by implication, in the understanding of how human openers interact with these systems. Aeronautical automation systems serve a variety of roles. These include controlling aircraft and aiding, advising and monitoring numerous functions in the aircraft/airspace system. Experiences in the use of human/automation systems gathered from aviation are, in many cases, generalizable to other industries having similar requirements for human and non-human intelligent system interaction. However, the human/automation lessons learned from aviation have special relevance to the space application, where many of the same operational demands prevail. The application of aeronautical lessons of human-automated interaction to spaceflight is the subject of this paper. The discussion will address: the progress that has been made through aeronautically-based research and experience in understanding human/automation interaction, ways that this understanding can be applied to the needs of space, and the limits of our present understanding of human/automations systems. Suggestions will be offered related to human-automation research generally, and to the particular needs of the space endeavor.

Connors, Mary M.↗

Automated Probabilistic Finite Element Model Calibration Tool Based on Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning

Qualification and certification of safety critical parts is a hurdle to the adoption of metallic additively manufactured components for aerospace vehicle applications. Challenges include variability in part properties due to inconsistent defect distribution and microstructure. Understanding of the process through finite element modeling (FEM), and process control through in-situ monitoring, may result in significant improvements; however, solutions useful to manufacturers will require large volumes of data and automated data utilization. Toward this end, a generalizable automated FEM calibration paradigm is developed. This paradigm leverages existing and novel tools from machine learning and uncertainty quantification to enable the automatic calibration of FEMs without requiring prior knowledge of the model performance across input parameter space, including meshing and solver settings, which can require time consuming manual model probing or cause noisy and inconsistent predictions. The result is a probabilistic distribution of calibrated and validated FEM input parameters targeting measured data.

Additive manufacturing model calibration finite el↗

A methodology for the design and evaluation of user interfaces for interactive information systems

The definition of proposed research addressing the development and validation of a methodology for the design and evaluation of user interfaces for interactive information systems is given. The major objectives of this research are: the development of a comprehensive, objective, and generalizable methodology for the design and evaluation of user interfaces for information systems; the development of equations and/or analytical models to characterize user behavior and the performance of a designed interface; the design of a prototype system for the development and administration of user interfaces; and the design and use of controlled experiments to support the research and test/validate the proposed methodology. The proposed design methodology views the user interface as a virtual machine composed of three layers: an interactive layer, a dialogue manager layer, and an application interface layer. A command language model of user system interactions is presented because of its inherent simplicity and structured approach based on interaction events. All interaction events have a common structure based on common generic elements necessary for a successful dialogue. It is shown that, using this model, various types of interfaces could be designed and implemented to accommodate various categories of users. The implementation methodology is discussed in terms of how to store and organize the information.

Dominick, Wayne D.↗

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INFLIGHT COUNTERMEASURE TO MITIGATE POSTFLIGHT GAIT DYSFUNCTION

Following spaceflight crewmembers experience gait and postural instabilities due to inflight adaptive alterations in sensorimotor function. These changes can pose a risk to crew safety if nominal or emergency vehicle egress is required immediately following long-duration spaceflight. At present, no operational countermeasure is available to mitigate postflight locomotor disturbances. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an inflight training regimen that facilitates the recovery of locomotor function after long-duration spaceflight. The countermeasure we are developing is based on the concept of variable practice. During this type of training the subject gains experience producing the appropriate adaptive motor behavior under a variety of sensory conditions and response constraints. This countermeasure is built around current ISS treadmill exercise activities. Crewmembers will conduct their nominal inflight treadmill exercise while being exposed to variations in visual flow patterns. These variations will challenge the postural and locomotor systems repeatedly, thereby promoting adaptive reorganization in locomotor behavior. As a result of this training a subject learns to solve a class of motor problems, rather than a specific motor solution to one problem, Le., the subject learns response generalizability or the ability to "learn to learn" under a variety of environmental constraints. We anticipate that this training will accelerate recovery of postural and locomotor function during readaptation to gravitational environments following spaceflight facilitating neural adaptation to unit (Earth) and partial (Mars) gravity after long-duration spaceflight. The study calls for one group of subjects to perform the inflight treadmill training regimen while a control group of subjects performs only the nominal exercise procedures. Locomotor function in both groups is assessed before and after spaceflight using two tests of gait function: The Integrated Treadmill Locomotion Test (ITLT) and the Functional Mobility Test (FMT). The ITLT characterizes alterations in the integrated function of multiple sensorimotor subsystems responsible for the control of locomotion. This test calls for subjects to walk on a motorized treadmill while we assess changes in dynamic postural stability, head-trunk coordination, short-latency head stabilization responses, dynamic visual acuity, lower limb coordination strategies and gait cycle timing. To make these assessments we measure the following parameters while subjects walk on the treadmill: 1) full body 3-dimensional kinematics using a motion capture system (Motion Analysis Corp., Santa Rosa, CA); 2) the shock-wave transmitted from heel-strike to the head using triaxial accelerometers placed on the tibia and head (Entran, Fairfield, NJ); 3) vertical forces using an instrumented treadmill (Kistler Instrument Corp., Amherst, NY); 4) Dynamic visual acuity using Landolt Cs presented on a laptop computer located 4m from the eyes and 5) Gait cycle timing using foot-switches (Motion Lab Systems, Inc., Baton Rouge, LA) attached to the plantar surface of each shoe at the heel and toe. The FMT evaluates a subject's ability to perform challenging locomotor maneuvers similar to those encountered during an egress from a space vehicle. Subjects step over and duck under obstacles along with negotiating a series of pylons set up on a base of 10 cm thick medium density foam. The dependent measures for the FMT are time to complete the course and the number of obstacles touched. To date, we have collected pre and postflight locomotion data from Expeditions 5-9 who will serve as part of the control group for this study. Preliminary results comparing the recovery rates in gait control sub-systems obtained from the ITLT and FMT performance showed two recovery patterns: 1) a concordant recovery trend between gait control parameters and FMT performance indicating a restitution pattern of recovery and 2) gait controecovery that lagged recovery in FMT performance suggesting that improvement in locomotor function was attained through a pattern of substitution. These data suggest that recovery of postflight locomotor function may occur through adaptive mechanisms that lead to either restitution or substitution of function. Understanding the modes of postflight readaptation has implications for countermeasure development and testing and in astronaut postflight rehabilitation.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗

Development of an Inflight Countermeasure to Mitigate Postflight Gait Dysfunction

Following spaceflight crewmembers experience gait and postural instabilities due to inflight adaptive alterations in sensorimotor function. These changes can pose a risk to crew safety if nominal or emergency vehicle egress is required immediately following long-duration spaceflight. At present, no operational countermeasure is available to mitigate postflight locomotor disturbances. Therefore, the goal of this study is to develop an inflight training regimen that facilitates the recovery of locomotor function after long-duration spaceflight. The countermeasure we are developing is based on the concept of variable practice. During this type of training the subject gains experience producing the appropriate adaptive motor behavior under a variety of sensory conditions and response constraints. This countermeasure is built around current ISS treadmill exercise activities. Crewmembers will conduct their nominal inflight treadmill exercise while being exposed to variations in visual flow patterns. These variations will challenge the postural and locomotor systems repeatedly, thereby promoting adaptive reorganization in locomotor behavior. As a result of this training a subject learns to solve a class of motor problems, rather than a specific motor solution to one problem, Le., the subject learns response generalizability or the ability to "learn to learn" under a variety of environmental constraints. We anticipate that this training will accelerate recovery of postural and locomotor function during readaptation to gravitational environments following spaceflight facilitating neural adaptation to unit (Earth) and partial (Mars) gravity after long-duration spaceflight. The study calls for one group of subjects to perform the inflight treadmill training regimen while a control group of subjects performs only the nominal exercise procedures. Locomotor function in both groups is assessed before and after spaceflight using two tests of gait function: The Integrated Treadmill Locomotion Test (ITLT) and the Functional Mobility Test (FMT). The ITLT characterizes alterations in the integrated function of multiple sensorimotor subsystems responsible for the control of locomotion. This test calls for subjects to walk on a motorized treadmill while we assess changes in dynamic postural stability, head-trunk coordination, short-latency head stabilization responses, dynamic visual acuity, lower limb coordination strategies and gait cycle timing. To make these assessments we measure the following parameters while subjects walk on the treadmill: 1) full body 3-dimensional kinematics using a motion capture system (Motion Analysis Corp., Santa Rosa, CA); 2) the shock-wave transmitted from heel-strike to the head using triaxial accelerometers placed on the tibia and head (Entran, Fairfield, NJ); 3) vertical forces using an instumented treadmill (Kistler Instrument Corp., Amherst, NY); 4) Dynamic visual acuity using Landolt Cs presented on a laptop computer located 4m from the eyes and 5) Gait cycle timing using foot-switches (Motion Lab Systems, Inc., Baton Rouge, LA) attached to the plantar surface of each shoe at the heel and toe. The FMT evaluates s. subject's ability to perform challenging locomotor maneuvers similar to those encountered during an egress from a space vehicle. Subjects step over and duck under obstacles along with negotiating a series of pylons set up on a base of 10 cm thick medium density foam. The dependent measures for the FMT are time to complete the course and the number of obstacles touched. To date, we have collected pre and postflight locomotion data from Expeditions 5-9 who will serve as part of the control group for this study. Preliminary results comparing the recovery rates in gait control sub-systems obtained from the ITLT and FMT performance showed two recovery patterns: 1) a concordant recovery trend between gait control parameters and FMT performance indicating a restitution pattern of recovery and 2) gait controecovery that lagged recovery in FMT performance suggesting that improvement in locomotor function was attained through a pattern of substitution. These data suggest that recovery of postflight locomotor function may occur through adaptive mechanisms that lead to either restitution or substitution of function. Understanding the modes of postflight readaptation has implications for countermeasure development and testing and in astronaut postflight rehabilitation.

Bloomberg, J. J.↗

Application of Human-Autonomy Teaming to an Advanced Ground Station for Reduced Crew Operations

Within human factors there is burgeoning interest in the "human-autonomy teaming" (HAT) concept as a way to address the challenges of interacting with complex, increasingly autonomous systems. The HAT concept comes out of an aspiration to interact with increasingly autonomous systems as a team member, rather than simply use automation as a tool. The authors, and others, have proposed core tenets for HAT that include bi-directional communication, automation and system transparency, and advanced coordination between human and automated teammates via predefined, dynamic task sequences known as "plays." It is believed that, with proper implementation, HAT should foster appropriate teamwork, thus increasing trust and reliance on the system, which in turn will reduce workload, increase situation awareness, and improve performance. To this end, HAT has been demonstrated and/or studied in multiple applications including search and rescue operations, healthcare and medicine, autonomous vehicles, photography, and aviation. The current paper presents one such effort to apply HAT. It details the design of a HAT agent, developed by Human Automation Teaming Solutions, Inc., to facilitate teamwork between the automation and the human operator of an advanced ground dispatch station. This dispatch station was developed to support a NASA project investigating a concept called Reduced Crew Operations (RCO); consequently, we have named the agent R-HATS. Part of the RCO concept involves a ground operator providing enhanced support to a large number of aircraft with a single pilot on the flight deck. When assisted by R-HATS, operators can monitor and support or manage a large number of aircraft and use plays to respond in real-time to complicated, workload-intensive events (e.g., an airport closure). A play is a plan that encapsulates goals, tasks, and a task allocation strategy appropriate for a particular situation. In the current implementation, when a play is initiated by a user, R-HATS determines what tasks need to be completed and has the ability to autonomously execute them (e.g., determining diversion options and uplinking new routes to aircraft) when it is safe and appropriate. R-HATS has been designed to both support end users and researchers in RCO and HAT. Additionally, R-HATS and its underlying architecture were developed with generalizability in mind as a modular software applicable outside of RCO/aviation domains. This paper will also discuss future further development and testing of RHATS.

automation↗

Plasma wave profiles of earth's bow shock at low Mach numbers - ISEE 3 observations on the far flank

A survey of selected crossings far downstream from the subsolar shock is presented in which the overall plasma wave (PW) behavior of a selected set of nearly perpendicular crossings and another set of limited Mach number but broad geometry are delinated. The result is a generalizable PW signature, or signatures, of low Mach number shocks and some likely implications of those signatures for the weak shock's plasma physical processes on the flank. The data are found to be consistent with the presence of ion beam interactions producing noise ahead of the shock in the ion acoustic frequency range. The presence or absence, and the amplitudes, of PW activity are explainable by the presence or absence of a population of upstream ions controlled by the component of the interplanetary magnetic field normal to the solar wind flow.

Greenstadt, E. W.↗

Reveal, A General Reverse Engineering Algorithm for Inference of Genetic Network Architectures

Given the immanent gene expression mapping covering whole genomes during development, health and disease, we seek computational methods to maximize functional inference from such large data sets. Is it possible, in principle, to completely infer a complex regulatory network architecture from input/output patterns of its variables? We investigated this possibility using binary models of genetic networks. Trajectories, or state transition tables of Boolean nets, resemble time series of gene expression. By systematically analyzing the mutual information between input states and output states, one is able to infer the sets of input elements controlling each element or gene in the network. This process is unequivocal and exact for complete state transition tables. We implemented this REVerse Engineering ALgorithm (REVEAL) in a C program, and found the problem to be tractable within the conditions tested so far. For n = 50 (elements) and k = 3 (inputs per element), the analysis of incomplete state transition tables (100 state transition pairs out of a possible 10(exp 15)) reliably produced the original rule and wiring sets. While this study is limited to synchronous Boolean networks, the algorithm is generalizable to include multi-state models, essentially allowing direct application to realistic biological data sets. The ability to adequately solve the inverse problem may enable in-depth analysis of complex dynamic systems in biology and other fields.

Liang, Shoudan↗

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on current and forecast of traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. In this paper, a methodology using supervised learning is developed to build a predictive model for RCM decision-support from large volumes of historical data. Data from two full years (2018 and 2019) related to current and forecast weather, demand/capacity, etc. is collected, analyzed, and fused together. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested for predicting runway configuration and hyperparameter tuning is carried out to select the best performing model. The validation process involves two airports of low (Charlotte Douglas International Airport, CLT) and high (Denver International Airport, DEN) complexity of configuration decision-making. The results show significant promise for the two airports with test accuracy of 93% (CLT) and 73% (DEN). The methodology is scalable and generalizable to other airports across the U.S. National Airspace System.

air traffic management↗