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SU-E-T-308: Dosimetric Comparison of SBRT VMAT Treatment Plans Generated for 6 MV, 6 MV FFF, and 10 MV FFF Photon Beams
Purpose: To assess differences in treatment plan quality between VMAT stereotactic body plans generated using the 6 MV, 6 MV FFF, and 10 MV FFF modalities available in our clinic. Plans for lung, spine, and other sites were compared to see if there is any advantage of one modality over the other. Methods: Treatment plans done for actual SBRT patients were selected. Groups of ten lung plans, five spine plans, and five plans from other sites were selected. New treatment plans were generated for each plan using the Varian Eclipse AAA algorithm. The constraints were kept the same as used in the actual plans, but the same version of software was used to generate plans for the three modalities. In addition, because there are natural variations in plans re-done with the same dose constraints, one of the lung plans was repeated ten times to assess those differences. Volumes of the 100%, 90%, 50%, 20% and 10% isodose surfaces were compared. Maximum dose two centimeters from the PTV were compared, as well as the volume of the 105% isodose surface outside of the PTV. In addition, the 20 Gray lung volume was compared for the lung plans. The values of these parameters were divided by the values for the 6 MV plans for comparison. Average and standard deviations were obtained for quantities in each group. The Student t test was done to determine if differences were seen at the 95% confidence level. Results: Comparison of the treatment plans showed no significant differences when assessing these volumes and doses. There were not any trends seen when comparing modalities as a function of PTV volume either. Conclusion: There is no obvious dosimetric advantage in selection of one modality over another for these types of SBRT plans.
A Scalable Solution Framework for Stochastic Transmission and Generation Planning Problems. Draft
Current commercial software tools for transmission and generation investment planning have limited stochastic modeling capabilities. Because of this limitation, electric power utilities generally rely on scenario planning heuristics to identify potentially robust and cost effective investment plans for a broad range of system, economic, and policy conditions. Several research studies have shown that stochastic models perform significantly better than deterministic or heuristic approaches, in terms of overall costs. However, there is a lack of practical solution approaches to solve such models. In this paper we propose a scalable decomposition algorithm to solve stochastic transmission and generation planning problems, respectively considering discrete and continuous decision variables for transmission and generation investments. Given stochasticity restricted to loads and wind, solar, and hydro power output, we develop a simple scenario reduction framework based on a clustering algorithm, to yield a more tractable model. The resulting stochastic optimization model is decomposed on a scenario basis and solved using a variant of the Progressive Hedging (PH) algorithm. We perform numerical experiments using a 240-bus network representation of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council in the US. Although convergence of PH to an optimal solution is not guaranteed for mixed-integer linear optimization models, we find that it is possible to obtain solutions with acceptable optimality gaps for practical applications. Our numerical simulations are performed both on a commodity workstation and on a high-performance cluster. The results indicate that large-scale problems can be solved to a high degree of accuracy in at most two hours of wall clock time.
21st Century Power Partnership Fellowship Program: Supporting Next-generation Planning Modeling Practices at South Africa's Power Utility Eskom
This presentation details the 21st Century Power Partnership's fellowship program accomplishments from 2016. This fellowship brought two fellows from South Africa's power utility, Eskom, to the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The fellows spent two weeks working to improve the fidelity of Eskom's PLEXOS long-term and short-term models, which are used in long-term generation planning exercises and capacity adequacy assessments. The fellows returned to Eksom equipped with a new suite of tools and skills to enhance Eksom's PLEXOS modeling capabilities.
Does Risk Aversion Affect Transmission and Generation Planning? A Western North America Case Study
Here, we investigate the effects of risk aversion on optimal transmission and generation expansion planning in a competitive and complete market. To do so, we formulate a stochastic model that minimizes a weighted average of expected transmission and generation costs and their conditional value at risk (CVaR). We also show that the solution of this optimization problem is equivalent to the solution of a perfectly competitive risk-averse Stackelberg equilibrium, in which a risk-averse transmission planner maximizes welfare after which risk-averse generators maximize profits. Furthermore, this model is then applied to a 240-bus representation of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council, in which we examine the impact of risk aversion on levels and spatial patterns of generation and transmission investment. Although the impact of risk aversion remains small at an aggregate level, state-level impacts on generation and transmission investment can be significant, which emphasizes the importance of explicit consideration of risk aversion in planning models.
New bounding and decomposition approaches for MILP investment problems: Multi-area transmission and generation planning under policy constraints
A novel two-phase bounding and decomposition approach to compute optimal and near-optimal solutions to large-scale mixed-integer investment planning problems is proposed and it considers a large number of operating subproblems, each of which is a convex optimization. Our motivating application is the planning of power transmission and generation in which policy constraints are designed to incentivize high amounts of intermittent generation in electric power systems. The bounding phase exploits Jensen’s inequality to define a lower bound, which we extend to stochastic programs that use expected-value constraints to enforce policy objectives. The decomposition phase, in which the bounds are tightened, improves upon the standard Benders’ algorithm by accelerating the convergence of the bounds. The lower bound is tightened by using a Jensen’s inequality-based approach to introduce an auxiliary lower bound into the Benders master problem. Upper bounds for both phases are computed using a sub-sampling approach executed on a parallel computer system. Numerical results show that only the bounding phase is necessary if loose optimality gaps are acceptable. But, the decomposition phase is required to attain optimality gaps. Moreover, use of both phases performs better, in terms of convergence speed, than attempting to solve the problem using just the bounding phase or regular Benders decomposition separately.
SU-E-T-303: Dosimetric Comparison of a LINAC Fallback Plan Generated From Tomotherapy System
Purpose: Quantitatively evaluate the Multi Criteria Optimization (MCO) based MLC step and shoot (sMLC) fallback plan derived from Tomotherapy of multiple lesions lung SBRT Methods: Inter-comparison of various IMRT planning systems tends to be difficult due to the vendor-specific functionalities. The methodology of defining dose constraints and beam geometries is challenging. Raysearch™ planning system offers an alternative replanning to deliver same intensity map from Tomotherapy without modifying original fluence. This intuitive comparison comes from the final fluence map converted without any embedded system dependent dose optimization. This planner independent approach could be utilized to study the merits of individual machines. The term “fallback” was utilized to (A) transfer plans in among treatment delivery systems; (B) maintain acceptable plan qualities; and (C) minimize the biological dose impact due to machine breakdown. The Tomotherapy specific DICOM RT dose and plan are retrieved into Raystation’s pre-defined sMLC protocol. Based on specific machine characteristics, same fluence maps were converted to generate equivalent deliverable segments. Therefore, the treatment plans were evaluated among two planning tools, Tomotherapy and MCO based sMLC delivery plans. Results: By converting the fluence map with the pre-defined machine characteristics, the 9-fields fallback plan has similar ITV coverage compared to the original Tomotherapy plan. ITV average doses, the D95 consisted of 0.9% variation. The total lung doses of fallback plan drifted from 17.4% to 30.5% which represents the limitations of the static beam delivery. D2 of fallback spinal cord increased from 22.4% to 36.4% but still within tolerances. Ipsilateral lung changed from 11.0% to 22.6%. Low dose region between ITVs presented increased dose to the normal lung tissues. Conclusion: Acceptable fallback plan for Tomotherapy SBRT has similar ITVs coverage, but lack of the normal tissues avoidance due to the limitation of geometrical factors to reduce doses in between ITVs.
Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?
Hydropower accounts for approximately 60% of electricity generation in Canada, with growth expected in the coming decades as part of renewable energy transitions; however, frequent cost overruns threaten the viability of this growth. Here, using the integrated assessment model GCAM, we develop an endogenous representation of hydropower for Canada that accounts for market dynamics, thus permitting analysis of hydropower competition with other electricity generation technologies, both with and without cost overruns. Results show that modelling hydropower resources endogenously increases Canadian hydropower deployment relative to an assumption of fixed hydropower production, from 417 to 495 TWh annually by 2050. In scenarios that apply cost overruns at historical levels, hydropower loses market share to more easily scalable technologies like wind power. When including high cost overrun assumptions, the model determines that hydropower falls from about 73% to 65% of Canadian electricity generation by 2050, while wind power increases from about 8% to 11%. Countries may be better able to achieve electrification and renewable energy targets at lower cost by avoiding large-scale, overrun-prone hydropower and nuclear generation projects. Model results support that cost overruns are important considerations for policy decisions related to electricity sector development in Canada and elsewhere.
Repurposing an energy system optimization model for seasonal power generation planning
Not Available
A scalable solution framework for stochastic transmission and generation planning problems.
Abstract not provided.
Generation Expansion Planning With Large Amounts of Wind Power via Decision-Dependent Stochastic Programming
Power generation expansion planning needs to deal with future uncertainties carefully, given that the invested generation assets will be in operation for a long time. Many stochastic programming models have been proposed to tackle this challenge. However, most previous works assume predetermined future uncertainties (i.e., fixed random outcomes with given probabilities). In several recent studies of generation assets' planning (e.g., thermal versus renewable), new findings show that the investment decisions could affect the future uncertainties as well. To this end, this paper proposes a multistage decision-dependent stochastic optimization model for long-term large-scale generation expansion planning, where large amounts of wind power are involved. In the decision-dependent model, the future uncertainties are not only affecting but also affected by the current decisions. In particular, the probability distribution function is determined by not only input parameters but also decision variables. To deal with the nonlinear constraints in our model, a quasi-exact solution approach is then introduced to reformulate the multistage stochastic investment model to a mixed-integer linear programming model. The wind penetration, investment decisions, and the optimality of the decision-dependent model are evaluated in a series of multistage case studies. The results show that the proposed decision-dependent model provides effective optimization solutions for long-term generation expansion planning.
Representing Operational Flexibility in Generation Expansion Planning Through Convex Relaxation of Unit Commitment
Large shares of renewable generation in electric power systems increase the need for operational flexibility. Consideration of operational flexibility in generation expansion planning (GEP) necessitates the modeling of unit commitment (UC) in system operations. However, the UC problem itself is computationally challenging. We present a GEP model in which the embedded operational problem is a convex relaxation of the UC problem. Through a large-scale example based on the Texas system, we show the tightness and tractability of our relaxation, as well as the impact of operational flexibility on GEP.
WE-DE-201-01: BEST IN PHYSICS (THERAPY): A Fast Multi-Target Inverse Treatment Planning Strategy Optimizing Dosimetric Measures for High-Dose-Rate (HDR) Brachytherapy
Purpose: Inverse treatment planning (ITP) for interstitial HDR brachytherapy of gynecologic cancers seeks to maximize coverage of the clinical target volumes (tumor and vagina) while respecting dose-volume-histogram related dosimetric measures (DMs) for organs at risk (OARs). Commercially available ITP tools do not support DM-based planning because it is computationally too expensive to solve. In this study we present a novel approach that allows fast ITP for gynecologic cancers based on DMs for the first time. Methods: This novel strategy is an optimization model based on a smooth DM-based objective function. The smooth approximation is achieved by utilizing a logistic function for the evaluation of DMs. The resulting nonconvex and constrained optimization problem is then optimized with a BFGS algorithm. The model was evaluated using the implant geometry extracted from 20 patient treatment plans under an IRB-approved retrospective study. For each plan, the final DMs were evaluated and compared to the original clinical plans. The CTVs were the contoured tumor volume and the contoured surface of the vagina. Statistical significance was evaluated with a one-sided paired Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Results: As did the clinical plans, all generated plans fulfilled the defined DMs for OARs. The proposed strategy showed a statistically significant improvement (p<0.001) in coverage of the tumor and vagina, with absolute improvements of related DMs of (6.9 +/− 7.9)% and (28.2 +/− 12.0)%, respectively. This was achieved with a statistically significant (p<0.01) decrease of the high-dose-related DM for the tumor. The runtime of the optimization was (2.3 +/− 2.0) seconds. Conclusion: We demonstrated using clinical data that our novel approach allows rapid DM-based optimization with improved coverage of CTVs with fewer hot spots. Being up to three orders of magnitude faster than the current clinical practice, the method dramatically shortens planning time.
Clustering representative days for power systems generation expansion planning: Capturing the effects of variable renewables and energy storage
Decision makers rely on models to make important regulatory, policy, and investment decisions. For power systems, these models must capture (i) the future challenges introduced by the integration of large quantities of variable renewable energy sources and (ii) the role that energy storage technologies should play. In this paper, we explore several different approaches to selecting representative days for generation expansion planning models, focusing on capturing these dynamics. Further, we propose a new methodology for adjusting the outputs of clustering algorithms that provides three advantages: the targeted level of net demand is captured, the underlying net demand shapes that define ramping challenges are accurately represented, and the relationship between annual energy and peak demand is captured. This weighting methodology reduces the magnitude of the error in the representative day based generation expansion planning models estimation of costs by 61% on average. The results also demonstrate the importance of carefully performing the clustering of representative days for both system costs and technology mix. In most cases improvements to the total cost of different representative day based expansion plans are realised where conventional generation capacity is substituted for energy storage. Based on the energy storage technology selected we conclude this capacity is being used to address ramping challenges as opposed to shifting renewable generation from off to on peak periods, reinforcing the importance of capturing detailed intraday dynamics in the representative day selection process.
Knowledge-based treatment planning and its potential role in the transition between treatment planning systems
Commissioning a new treatment planning system (TPS) involves many time-consuming tasks. We investigated the role that knowledge-based planning (KBP) can play in aiding a clinic's transition to a new TPS. Sixty clinically treated prostate/prostate bed intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans were exported from an in-house TPS and were used to create a KBP model in a newly implemented commercial application. To determine the benefit that KBP may have in a TPS transition, the model was tested on 2 groups of patients. Group 1 consisted of the first 10 prostate/prostate bed patients treated in the commercial TPS after the transition from the in-house TPS. Group 2 consisted of 10 patients planned in the commercial TPS after 8 months of clinical use. The KBP-generated plan was compared with the clinically used plan in terms of plan quality (ability to meet planning objectives and overall dose metrics) and planning efficiency (time required to generate clinically acceptable plans). The KBP-generated plans provided a significantly improved target coverage (p = 0.01) compared with the clinically used plans for Group 1, but yielded plans of comparable target coverage to the clinically used plans for Group 2. For the organs at risk, the KBP-generated plans produced lower doses, on average, for every normal-tissue objective except for the maximum dose to 0.1 cc of rectum. The time needed for the KBP-generated plans ranged from 6 to 15 minutes compared to 30 to 150 and 15 to 60 minutes for manual planning in Groups 1 and 2, respectively. KBP is a promising tool to aid in the transition to a new TPS. Our study indicates that high-quality treatment plans could have been generated in the newly implemented TPS more efficiently compared with not using KBP. Even after 8 months of the clinical use, KBP still showed an increase in plan quality and planning efficiency compared with manual planning.
SU-G-TeP4-14: Quality Control of Treatment Planning Using Knowledge-Based Planning Across a System of Radiation Oncology Practices
Purpose: There is potentially a wide variation in plan quality for a certain disease site, even for clinics located in the same system of hospitals. We have used a prostate-specific knowledge-based planning (KBP) model as a quality control tool to investigate the variation in prostate treatment planning across a network of affiliated radiation oncology departments. Methods: A previously created KBP model was applied to 10 patients each from 4 community-based clinics (Clinics A, B, C, and D). The KBP model was developed using RapidPlan (Eclipse v13.5, Varian Medical Systems) from 60 prostate/prostate bed IMRT plans that were originally planned using an in-house treatment planning system at the central institution of the community-based clinics. The dosimetric plan quality (target coverage and normal-tissue sparing) of each model-generated plan was compared to the respective clinically-used plan. Each community-based clinic utilized the same planning goals to develop the clinically-used plans that were used at the main institution. Results: Across all 4 clinics, the model-generated plans decreased the mean dose to the rectum by varying amounts (on average, 12.5, 2.6, 4.5, and 2.7 Gy for Clinics A, B, C, and D, respectively). The mean dose to the bladder also decreased with the model-generated plans (5.4, 2.3, 3.0, and 4.1 Gy, respectively). The KBP model also identified that target coverage (D95%) improvements were possible for for Clinics A, B, and D (0.12, 1.65, and 2.75%) while target coverage decreased by 0.72% for Clinic C, demonstrating potentially different trade-offs made in clinical plans at different institutions. Conclusion: Quality control of dosimetric plan quality across a system of radiation oncology practices is possible with knowledge-based planning. By using a quality KBP model, smaller community-based clinics can potentially identify the areas of their treatment plans that may be improved, whether it be in normal-tissue sparing or improved target coverage. M. Matuszak has research funding for KBP from Varian Medical Systems.
IDAES Enterprise: Generation Expansion Planning with Enhanced Requirements for Capacity Adequacy Under Renewable Intermittency
Achieving net zero carbon emissions likely requires future power systems to integrate new, flexible energy technologies to accommodate higher levels of capacity from variable renewable energy sources. To determine the optimal deployment of new electricity capacity and to study the likelihood of deployments of new energy technologies, an expansion planning model has been developed as part of the IDAES-Enterprise suite of grid models. The Generation Expansion Planning (GEP) model is a multi-period model in which investment decisions occur yearly, and a Unit Commitment (UC) problem is examined on an hourly timescale. To reduce computational complexity of the GEP model, the UC problem is solved for average “representative days” which leaves out extreme, but relatively common, scenarios in which low renewable generation occurs, leaving the system with inadequacy in capacity. The IDAES-Enterprise GEP model has been modified to include these extreme scenarios while keeping the model reasonably tractable. Specifically, a lazy constraint technique was implemented to check for capacity adequacy on an hourly basis over a large data set of aligned load-wind-solar profiles. As a vast majority of the capacity constraints will not be violated, the technique lowers computational expense by searching for violated capacity constraints over an “iterative manner,” adding those infeasible constraints back into the model. Results on a test case of the Southwest Power Pool shows that the lazy constraint technique significantly reduces retirements and increases installments of natural gas combined cycles and flexible natural gas units. It also reduces some retirements of coal units. These modifications provide a more reasonable estimation of required dispatchable power generation capacity to ensure feasibility during peak net load.
Planning for a Distributed Disruption: Innovative Practices for Incorporating Distributed Solar into Utility Planning
The rapid growth of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) has critical implications for U.S. utility planning processes. This report informs utility planning through a comparative analysis of roughly 30 recent utility integrated resource plans or other generation planning studies, transmission planning studies, and distribution system plans. It reveals a spectrum of approaches to incorporating DPV across nine key planning areas, and it identifies areas where even the best current practices might be enhanced. (1) Forecasting DPV deployment: Because it explicitly captures several predictive factors, customer-adoption modeling is the most comprehensive forecasting approach. It could be combined with other forecasting methods to generate a range of potential futures. (2) Ensuring robustness of decisions to uncertain DPV quantities: using a capacity-expansion model to develop least-cost plans for various scenarios accounts for changes in net load and the generation portfolio; an innovative variation of this approach combines multiple per-scenario plans with trigger events, which indicate when conditions have changed sufficiently from the expected to trigger modifications in resource-acquisition strategy. (3) Characterizing DPV as a resource option: Today's most comprehensive plans account for all of DPV's monetary costs and benefits. An enhanced approach would address non-monetary and societal impacts as well. (4) Incorporating the non-dispatchability of DPV into planning: Rather than having a distinct innovative practice, innovation in this area is represented by evolving methods for capturing this important aspect of DPV. (5) Accounting for DPV's location-specific factors: The innovative propensity-to-adopt method employs several factors to predict future DPV locations. Another emerging utility innovation is locating DPV strategically to enhance its benefits. (6) Estimating DPV's impact on transmission and distribution investments: Innovative practices are being implemented to evaluate system needs, hosting capacities, and system investments needed to accommodate DPV deployment. (7) Estimating avoided losses associated with DPV: A time-differentiated marginal loss rate provides the most comprehensive estimate of avoided losses due to DPV, but no studies appear to use it. (8) Considering changes in DPV's value with higher solar penetration: Innovative methods for addressing the value changes at high solar penetrations are lacking among the studies we evaluate. (9) Integrating DPV in planning across generation, transmission, and distribution: A few states and regions have started to develop more comprehensive processes that link planning forums, but there are still many issues to address.