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At least 19 records

Uncertainty propagation in a stratospheric model. I - Development of a concise stratospheric model. II - Monte Carlo analysis of imprecisions due to reaction rates

The paper discusses the development of a concise stratospheric model which uses iteration to obtain coupling between interacting species. The one-dimensional, steady-state, diurnally-averaged model generates diffusion equations with appropriate sources and sinks for species odd oxygen, H2O, H2, CO, N2O, odd nitrogen, CH4, CH3Cl, CCl4, CF2Cl2, CFCl3, and odd chlorine. The model evaluates steady-state perturbations caused by injections of chlorine and NO(x) and may be used to predict ozone depletion. The model is used in a Monte Carlo study of the propagation of reaction-rate imprecisions by calculating an ozone perturbation caused by the addition of chlorine. Since the model is sensitive to only 10 of the more than 50 reaction rates considered, only about 1000 Monte Carlo cases are required to span the space of possible results.

Rundel, R. D.

Kinematic models of supergranular diffusion on the Sun

We develop kinematic models of diffusion generated by supergranulation at the solar surface. These models use current observations for the size, horizontal velocity, and lifetime of supergranules. Because there is no observational description of the appearance and disappearance of supergranules, we investigate models using several plausible evolution processes, including the effect of different lifetime distribution functions for the cells. The results are quite insensitive to the methods chosen to replace old supergranules, the distribution of cell lifetimes, and even the cell lifetime itself, for mean lifetimes between 15 to 30 hr. Calculated diffusion coefficients range between 500 and 700 sq km/s, in agreement with the best fit diffusion coefficients used by Sheeley and his collaborators to model the large-scale distribution of magnetic fields over the solar surface. However, our models do not explain the field distribution in plage, and they predict that virtually all the strong field in quiet Sun exists in relatively isolated clumps. We suggest possible mechanisms for the creation of plage and the bright network seen in quiet Sun.

Simon, G. W.

Parametric studies with an atmospheric diffusion model that assesses toxic fuel hazards due to the ground clouds generated by rocket launches

Parametric studies were made with a multilayer atmospheric diffusion model to place quantitative limits on the uncertainty of predicting ground-level toxic rocket-fuel concentrations. Exhaust distributions in the ground cloud, cloud stabilized geometry, atmospheric coefficients, the effects of exhaust plume afterburning of carbon monoxide CO, assumed surface mixing-layer division in the model, and model sensitivity to different meteorological regimes were studied. Large-scale differences in ground-level predictions are quantitatively described. Cloud alongwind growth for several meteorological conditions is shown to be in error because of incorrect application of previous diffusion theory. In addition, rocket-plume calculations indicate that almost all of the rocket-motor carbon monoxide is afterburned to carbon dioxide CO2, thus reducing toxic hazards due to CO. The afterburning is also shown to have a significant effect on cloud stabilization height and on ground-level concentrations of exhaust products.

Stewart, R. B.

On the generation of the sequence of diffuse resonances observed on top side ionograms

Two different plasma wave instabilities have been invoked in earlier models for the generation of top side ionogram diffuse resonances. Arguments are presented that support the model based on the Harris instability, i.e., the instability resulting from a sounder-stimulated anisotropic electron velocity distribution. Two modifications to this model are also presented. First, it is only necessary for the instability mechanism to operate for a period of the order of milliseconds (rather than tens of milliseconds) in order to explain the observations. Second, the wave associated with the second harmonic of the electron cyclotron frequency, which enters into the nonlinear wave-wave interaction process included in the model, comes from the side bands of the transmitted sounder pulse rather than from the turbulent state of the plasma caused by the pulse. The second modification provides an explanation for the variation of the time duration observed among the members of the sequence of diffuse resonances.

Benson, R. F.

Heating of solid targets with laser pulses

Analytical and numerical solutions to the heat-conduction equation are obtained for the heating of absorbing media with pulsed lasers. The spatial and temporal form of the temperature is determined using several different models of the laser irradiance. Both surface and volume generation of heat are discussed. It is found that if the depth of thermal diffusion for the laser-pulse duration is large compared to the optical-attenuation depth, the surface- and volume-generation models give nearly identical results. However, if the thermal-diffusion depth for the laser-pulse duration is comparable to or less than the optical-attenuation depth, the surface-generation model can give significantly different results compared to the volume-generation model. Specific numerical results are given for a tungsten target irradiated by pulses of different temporal durations and the implications of the results are discussed with respect to the heating of metals by picosecond laser pulses.

Bechtel, J. H.

GRO/EGRET data analysis software: An integrated system of custom and commercial software using standard interfaces

The Energetic Gamma Ray Telescope Experiment (EGRET) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory has been in orbit for more than a year and is being used to map the full sky for gamma rays in a wide energy range from 30 to 20,000 MeV. Already these measurements have resulted in a wide range of exciting new information on quasars, pulsars, galactic sources, and diffuse gamma ray emission. The central part of the analysis is done with sky maps that typically cover an 80 x 80 degree section of the sky for an exposure time of several days. Specific software developed for this program generates the counts, exposure, and intensity maps. The analysis is done on a network of UNIX based workstations and takes full advantage of a custom-built user interface called X-dialog. The maps that are generated are stored in the FITS format for a collection of energies. These, along with similar diffuse emission background maps generated from a model calculation, serve as input to a maximum likelihood program that produces maps of likelihood with optional contours that are used to evaluate regions for sources. Likelihood also evaluates the background corrected intensity at each location for each energy interval from which spectra can be generated. Being in a standard FITS format permits all of the maps to be easily accessed by the full complement of tools available in several commercial astronomical analysis systems. In the EGRET case, IDL is used to produce graphics plots in two and three dimensions and to quickly implement any special evaluation that might be desired. Other custom-built software, such as the spectral and pulsar analyses, take advantage of the XView toolkit for display and Postscript output for the color hard copy. This poster paper outlines the data flow and provides examples of the user interfaces and output products. It stresses the advantages that are derived from the integration of the specific instrument-unique software and powerful commercial tools for graphics and statistical evaluation. This approach has several proven advantages including flexibility, a minimum of development effort, ease of use, and portability.

Laubenthal, N. A.

Design and Fabrication of a Hele-Shaw Apparatus for Observing Instabilities of Diffusion Flames

Examinations of flame fronts spreading over solid fuels in an opposed flow of oxidizer have shown that the flame front fragments into smaller (cellular) flames. These 'flamelets' will oscillate, recombine, or extinguish, indicating that they are in the near extinction limit regime (i.e., to one side of the quenching branch of the flammability map). Onset of unstable cellular flamelet formation for flame spread over thin fuels occurs when a heat-sink substrate is placed a small distance from the underside of the fuel. This heat-sink substrate (or backing) displaces the quenching branch of the flammability map in a direction that causes the instabilities to occur at higher air velocities. Similar near-limit behavior has been observed in other works using different fuels, thus suggesting that these dynamic mechanisms are fuel-independent and therefore fundamental attributes of flames in this near-limit flame spread regime. The objective of this project is to determine the contributions of the hydrodynamic and thermodiffusive mechanisms to the observed formation of flame instabilities. From this, a model of diffusion flame instabilities shall be generated. Previously, experiments were conducted in NASA drop towers, thereby limiting observation time to O(1-5 sec). The NASA tests exhibited flamelet survival for the entire drop time, suggesting that flamelets (i.e., small cellular flames) might exist, if permitted, for longer time periods. By necessity, experiments were limited to thermally thin cellulose fuels (approximately 0.001 in thick): instabilities could form by virtue of faster spread rates over thin fuels. Unstable behavior was unlikely in the short drop time for thicker fuels. In the International Space Station (ISS), microgravity time is unlimited, so both thin and thick fuels can be tested.

Wichman, I. S.

Gamma-rays from supernova remnants and the signatures of diffusive shock acceleration

A nonlinear shock acceleration model which generates non-thermal proton distributions and includes a self-consistent determination of shock hydrodynamics, is considered. Gamma ray spectra are obtained for supernova remnants, allowing for the cessation of acceleration to high energies due to the finite ages and the sizes of the remnants. Gamma ray spectral cutoffs can be observed in the TeV range for reasonable remnant parameters and deviations from power law behavior are found at all energies from 1 MeV to cutoff. Correlated observations by the International Gamma Ray Astrophysics Laboratory, Whipple and other instruments may provide stringent constraints to understanding supernova remnants.

Baring, Matthew G.

A diffuse radar scattering model from Martian surface rocks

Remote sensing of Mars has been done with a variety of instrumentation at various wavelengths. Many of these data sets can be reconciled with a surface model of bonded fines (or duricrust) which varies widely across the surface and a surface rock distribution which varies less so. A surface rock distribution map from -60 to +60 deg latitude has been generated by Christensen. Our objective is to model the diffuse component of radar reflection based on this surface distribution of rocks. The diffuse, rather than specular, scattering is modeled because the diffuse component arises due to scattering from rocks with sizes on the order of the wavelength of the radar beam. Scattering for radio waves of 12.5 cm is then indicative of the meter scale and smaller structure of the surface. The specular term is indicative of large scale surface undulations and should not be causally related to other surface physical properties. A simplified model of diffuse scattering is described along with two rock distribution models. The results of applying the models to a planet of uniform fractional rock coverage with values ranging from 5 to 20% are discussed.

Calvin, W. M.

The Jovian magnetosphere

Research on Jovian magnetospheric physics from 1979 through 1982 is surveyed, with a focus on the observations of Voyagers 1 and 2. Jovian fields and plasmas are characterized in the order of their distance from the planet, and special emphasis is given to the Io plasma torus (IPT) in the 4.9-8-Jovian-radius region and to the extended Jovian magnetotail. Topics reviewed include synchrotron radiation, magnetic-field models, Na and S emissions in the IPT, aurora, the magnetic-anomaly model, IPT plasma diffusion-convection, Io-generated Alfven wave, plasma configuration beyond the IPT, low-energy charged particles, cosmic-ray-energy particles, particle acceleration, magnetic configuration, tail current sheet and plasma disc, magnetopause and magnetosheath, interplanetary ions of Jovian origin, and the Jovian magnetosphere at Saturnian distances.

Birmingham, T. J.

Machine-Learning-Based Adaptive Thinning of CrIS Radiances to Improve Global Tropical Cyclone Analysis and Forecasts

This work is focused on optimizing the assimilation of hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiances from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) with the goal of improving the representation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in global analyses and forecasts. Current operational assimilation systems rely on subsampling IR radiances on a regular thinning grid. A new and improved adaptive methodology based on machine learning (ML) recognizes TCs from geostationary satellite imagery and is implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and data assimilation framework. The ML methodology is extensively trained on existing TC data sets and creates for each TC a dynamic mask, based on the evolving shape and life cycle of that specific event. Once a TC mask is created, a switch is then activated in the data assimilation system to alter the thinning, ingesting more CrIS radiances within the moving mask, thus increasing the TC sampling. After the TC dissipates, the assimilation of CrIS radiances reverts to normal data density. Results of TC segmentation provided by a state-of-the-art generative machine learning model known as the Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) are compared to the previously used U-Net model. The new approach surpasses the performance of the previously developed one. The methodology is applied to both clear-sky and cloud-cleared radiances. Benefits from the latter methodology, particularly in improving the structure of TCs and the intensity forecasts, are presented.

Oreste Reale

A model for the distribution of material generating the soft X-ray background

The observational evidence relating to the soft X-ray diffuse background is discussed, and a simple model for its source and spatial structure is presented. In this simple model with one free parameter, the observed 1/4 keV X-ray intensity originates as thermal emission from a uniform hot plasma filling a cavity in the neutral material of the Galactic disk which contains the sun. Variations in the observed X-ray intensity are due to variations in the extent of the emission volume and therefore the emission measure of the plasma. The model reproduces the observed negative correlation between X-ray intensity and H I column density and predicts reasonable values for interstellar medium parameters.

Snowden, S. L.

A Linearized Prognostic Cloud Scheme in NASAs Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

A linearized prognostic cloud scheme has been developed to accompany the linearized convection scheme recently implemented in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. The linearization, developed from the nonlinear cloud scheme, treats cloud variables prognostically so they are subject to linearized advection, diffusion, generation, and evaporation. Four linearized cloud variables are modeled, the ice and water phases of clouds generated by large-scale condensation and, separately, by detraining convection. For each species the scheme models their sources, sublimation, evaporation, and autoconversion. Large-scale, anvil and convective species of precipitation are modeled and evaporated. The cloud scheme exhibits linearity and realistic perturbation growth, except around the generation of clouds through large-scale condensation. Discontinuities and steep gradients are widely used here and severe problems occur in the calculation of cloud fraction. For data assimilation applications this poor behavior is controlled by replacing this part of the scheme with a perturbation model. For observation impacts, where efficiency is less of a concern, a filtering is developed that examines the Jacobian. The replacement scheme is only invoked if Jacobian elements or eigenvalues violate a series of tuned constants. The linearized prognostic cloud scheme is tested by comparing the linear and nonlinear perturbation trajectories for 6-, 12-, and 24-h forecast times. The tangent linear model performs well and perturbations of clouds are well captured for the lead times of interest.

Precipitation

Stream interfaces and energetic ions 2: Ulysses test of Pioneer results

Ulysses measurements of energetic and solar wind particles taken near 5 AU between 20 and 30 degrees south latitude during a well-developed recurring corotating interaction region (CIR) show that the CIR's corotating energetic ion population (CEIP) associated with the trailing reverse shock starts within the CIR at the stream interface. This is consistent with an earlier result obtained by Pioneers 10 and 11 in the ecliptic plane between 4 and 6 AU. The Ulysses/Pioneer finding noteworthy since the stream interface is not magnetically connected to the reverse shock but lies 12-17 corotation hours from it. Thus, the finding to be inconsistent with the basic model that generates CEIP particles at the reverse shock and propagates them along field lines Eliminating the inconsistency probably entails an extension of the standard model. We consider two possible extensions cross-field diffusion and energetic particles generation closer to the sun in the gap between the stream interface and the reverse shock.

Intriligator, Devrie S.

Wind Tunnel Design Studies and Technical Evaluation of Advanced Cargo Aircraft Concepts

In support of aerodynamic studies relating to the design and performance prediction of the National Transonic Facility, the following main tasks were accomplished: (1) estimation of aerodynamic losses of the tunnel circuits, (2) refinement of the high-speed diffuser loss prediction method utilizing experimental data generated for the purpose; (3) model studies of flow in the second-turn and measurements of the fan inlet distortion and overall pressure loss; (4) development of a shortened fan nacelle configuration of improved aerodynamic performance; and (5) evolution through model studies of an efficient rapid-diffuser system as the key to a circuit-modification proposal to reduce volume and minimize liquid-nitrogen consumption, at the same time saving on the shell cost.

Rao, D. M.

Four-D global reference atmosphere technical description, part 1

An empirical atmospheric model was developed which generates values for pressure, density, temperature, and winds from surface levels to orbital altitudes. The output parameters consist of components for: (1) latitude, longitude, and altitude dependent monthly and annual means; (2) quasi-biennial oscillations; and (3) random perturbations to simulate partially the variability due to synoptic, diurnal, planetary wave, and gravity wave variations. Quasi-biennial and random variation perturbations are computed from parameters determined from various empirical studies and are added to the monthly mean values. This model has been developed as a computer program called PROFILE which can be used to generate altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters along any simulated trajectory through the atmosphere. The PROFILE program was developed for design applications in the space shuttle program. Other applications of the model are discussed, such as for global circulation and diffusion studies, and for generating profiles for comparison with other atmospheric measurement techniques, (e.g. satellite measured temperature profiles).

Justus, C. G.

Modeling Charge Collection in Detector Arrays

A detector array charge collection model has been developed for use as an engineering tool to aid in the design of optical sensor missions for operation in the space radiation environment. This model is an enhancement of the prototype array charge collection model that was developed for the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST) program. The primary enhancements were accounting for drift-assisted diffusion by Monte Carlo modeling techniques and implementing the modeling approaches in a windows-based code. The modeling is concerned with integrated charge collection within discrete pixels in the focal plane array (FPA), with high fidelity spatial resolution. It is applicable to all detector geometries including monolithc charge coupled devices (CCDs), Active Pixel Sensors (APS) and hybrid FPA geometries based on a detector array bump-bonded to a readout integrated circuit (ROIC).

Hardage, Donna

Numerical experiments with a stochastic zonal climate model

A zonally averaged energy balance climate model is developed to generate zonal temperature variability through fluctuating meridional energy transports. Stochastic transport fluctuations are included in the model by multiplying the eddy diffusion coefficients by Gaussian random deviates. For a variability of eddy coefficients of 50 percent, the model is found to generate an interannual temperature variability of 0.03 K for the global temperature, and 0.04 and 0.05 K for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively. It is shown that the temperature variability level generated is linearly related to the transport variability level introduced. An increase in the level of model-generated temperature variability and a change in the shape of variance spectra of temperature anomaly time series are obtained by switching from the multiplicative noise model to an additive noise model. The results of these model studies are compared with a time series of central England temperatures as well as GCM generated climate variability.

Schneider, S. H.