Geomagnetic storm forecasting from solar coronal holes
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Simona Nitti↗
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Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition
To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz ≤ −5 nT or Ey ≥ 3 mV/m for t ≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than −50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.
geomagnetic storm forecast↗
Multi-spacecraft testing of time-dependent interplanetary MHD models for operational forecasting of geomagnetic storms
An MHD 2-1/2D, time-dependent model is used, together with observations of six solar flares during February 3-7, 1986, to demonstrate global, large-scale, compound disturbances in the solar wind over a wide range of heliolongitudes. This scenario is one that is likely to occur many times during the cruise, possibly even encounter, phases of the Multi-Comet Mission. It is suggested that a model such as this one should be tested with multi-spacecraft data (such as the MCM and earth-based probes) with several goals in view: (1) utility of the model for operational real-time forecasting of geomagnetic storms, and (2) scientific interpretation of certain forms of cometary activities and their possible association with solar-generated activity.
Dryer, M.↗
A Major Solar Eruptive Event in July 2012: Defining Extreme Space Weather Scenarios
A key goal for space weather studies is to define severe and extreme conditions that might plausibly afflict human technology. On 23 July 2012, solar active region 1520 (approx. 141 deg W heliographic longitude) gave rise to a powerful coronal mass ejection (CME) with an initial speed that was determined to be 2500+/-500 km/s. The eruption was directed away from Earth toward 125 deg W longitude. STEREO-A sensors detected the CME arrival only about 19 h later and made in situ measurements of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field. In this paper, we address the question of what would have happened if this powerful interplanetary event had been Earthward directed. Using a well-proven geomagnetic storm forecast model, we find that the 23-24 July event would certainly have produced a geomagnetic storm that was comparable to the largest events of the twentieth century (Dst approx. - 500 nT). Using plausible assumptions about seasonal and time-of-day orientation of the Earth's magnetic dipole, the most extreme modeled value of storm-time disturbance would have been Dst= - 1182 nT. This is considerably larger than estimates for the famous Carrington storm of 1859. This finding has far reaching implications because it demonstrates that extreme space weather conditions such as those during March of 1989 or September of 1859 can happen even during a modest solar activity cycle such as the one presently underway. We argue that this extreme event should immediately be employed by the space weather community to model severe space weather effects on technological systems such as the electric power grid.
solar longitude↗
Applying AI tools to operational space environmental analysis
The U.S. Air Force and National Oceanic Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) space environmental operations centers are facing increasingly complex challenges meeting the needs of their growing user community. These centers provide current space environmental information and short term forecasts of geomagnetic activity. Recent advances in modeling and data access have provided sophisticated tools for making accurate and timely forecasts, but have introduced new problems associated with handling and analyzing large quantities of complex data. AI (Artificial Intelligence) techniques have been considered as potential solutions to some of these problems. Fielding AI systems has proven more difficult than expected, in part because of operational constraints. Using systems which have been demonstrated successfully in the operational environment will provide a basis for a useful data fusion and analysis capability. Our approach uses a general purpose AI system already in operational use within the military intelligence community, called the Temporal Analysis System (TAS). TAS is an operational suite of tools supporting data processing, data visualization, historical analysis, situation assessment and predictive analysis. TAS includes expert system tools to analyze incoming events for indications of particular situations and predicts future activity. The expert system operates on a knowledge base of temporal patterns encoded using a knowledge representation called Temporal Transition Models (TTM's) and an event database maintained by the other TAS tools. The system also includes a robust knowledge acquisition and maintenance tool for creating TTM's using a graphical specification language. The ability to manipulate TTM's in a graphical format gives non-computer specialists an intuitive way of accessing and editing the knowledge base. To support space environmental analyses, we used TAS's ability to define domain specific event analysis abstractions. The prototype system defines events covering reports of natural phenomena such as solar flares, bursts, geomagnetic storms, and five others pertinent to space environmental analysis. With our preliminary event definitions we experimented with TAS's support for temporal pattern analysis using X-ray flare and geomagnetic storm forecasts as case studies. We are currently working on a framework for integrating advanced graphics and space environmental models into this analytical environment.
Krajnak, Mike↗
Comparison of Dst Forecast Models for Intense Geomagnetic Storms
We have compared six disturbance storm time (Dst) forecast models using 63 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst <=100 nT) that occurred from 1998 to 2006. For comparison, we estimated linear correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Dst data and the predicted Dst during the geomagnetic storm period as well as the difference of the value of minimum Dst (Delta Dst(sub min)) and the difference in the absolute value of Dst minimum time (Delta t(sub Dst)) between the observed and the predicted. As a result, we found that the model by Temerin and Li gives the best prediction for all parameters when all 63 events are considered. The model gives the average values: the linear correlation coefficient of 0.94, the RMS error of 14.8 nT, the Delta Dst(sub min) of 7.7 nT, and the absolute value of Delta t(sub Dst) of 1.5 hour. For further comparison, we classified the storm events into two groups according to the magnitude of Dst. We found that the model of Temerin and Lee is better than the other models for the events having 100 <= Dst < 200 nT, and three recent models (the model of Wang et al., the model of Temerin and Li, and the model of Boynton et al.) are better than the other three models for the events having Dst <= 200 nT.
Geomagnetic Storms↗
Operating in the space plasma environment: A spacecraft charging study of the Solar X-ray Imager
This study presents the results of a spacecraft charging effects protection study conducted on the Solar X-ray Imager (SXI). The SXI is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center for NOAA's Space Environment Laboratory, and will be used to aid in forecasting energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms. Images will provide information on the intensity and location of solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and high speed solar streams. The SXI will be flown on a next-generation GOES sometime in the mid to late 1990's. Charging due to the encounter with a worst-case magnetic substorm environment is modeled using the NASCAP/GEO computer code. Charging levels of exterior surfaces and the floating potential of the spacecraft relative to plasma are determined as a function of spacecraft design, operational configuration, and orbital conditions. Areas where large surface voltage gradients exist on or near the SXI are identified as possible arc-discharge sites. Results of the charging analysis are then used to develop design recommendations that will limit the effects of spacecraft charging on the SXI operation.
Herr, Joel L.↗
Space-Based Sentinels for Measurement of Infrared Cooling in the Thermosphere for Space Weather Nowcasting
Infrared radiative cooling by nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) modulates the thermosphere’s density and thermal response to geomagnetic storms. Satellite tracking and collision avoidance planning require accurate density forecasts during these events. Over the past several years, failed density forecasts have been tied to the onset of rapid and significant cooling due to production of NO and its associated radiative cooling via emission of infrared radiation at 5.3 μm. These results have been diagnosed, after the fact, through analyses of measurements of infrared cooling made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument now in orbit over 16 years on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. Radiative cooling rates for NO and CO2 have been further shown to be directly correlated with composition and exospheric temperature changes during geomagnetic storms. These results strongly suggest that a network of smallsats observing the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere could serve as space weather sentinels. These sentinels would observe and provide radiative cooling rate data in real time to generate nowcasts of density and aerodynamic drag on space vehicles. Currently, radiative cooling is not directly considered in operational space weather forecast models. In addition, recent research has shown that different geomagnetic storm types generate substantially different infrared radiative response, and hence, substantially different thermospheric density response. The ability to identify these storms, and to measure and predict the Earth’s response to them, should enable substantial improvement in thermospheric density forecasts.
Mlynczak, Martin G.↗
Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections that Caused Particularly Large Geomagnetic Storms Using ENLIL Heliosphere Cone Model
In our previous paper we reported the results of modeling of 14 selected well -observed strong halo coronal mass ejection (CME) events using the WSA -ENLIL cone model combination. Cone model input parameters were obtained from white light coronagraph images of the CME events using the analytical method developed by Xie et al. This work verified that coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival time prediction. In contrast to Taktakishvili et al., where we started the analysis by looking for clear CME signatures in the data and then proceeded to model the interplanetary consequences at 1 AU, in the present paper we start by generating a list of observed geomagnetic storm events and then work our way back to remote solar observations and carry out the corresponding CME modeling. The approach used in this study is addressing space weather forecasting and operational needs. We analyzed 36 particularly strong geomagnetic storms, then tried to associate them with particular CMEs using SOHO/LASCO catalogue, and finally modeled these CMEs using WSA-ENLIL cone model. Recently, Pulkkinen et al. developed a novel method for automatic determination of cone model parameters. We employed both analytical and automatic methods to determine cone model input parameters. We examined the CME arrival times and magnitude of impact at 1 AU for both techniques. The results of the simulations are compared with the ACE satellite observations. This comparison demonstrated that WSA -ENLIL model combination with coronagraph input gives reasonably good results for the CME arrival times for this set of 'geoeffective" CME events as well.
Taktakishvili, A.↗
A Scheme for finding the Front Boundary of an Interplanetary Magnetic Cloud
We developed a scheme for finding the front boundary of an interplanetary magnetic cloud (MC) based on criteria that depend on the possible existence of any one or all of six specific solar wind features. The features that the program looks for, within +/- 2 hours of a preliminarily determined time for the front boundary, estimated either by visual inspection or by an automatic MC identification scheme, are: (1) a sufficiently large directional discontinuity in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), (2) existence of a magnetic hole, (3) a significant proton plasma beta drop, (4) a significant proton temperature drop, (5) a marked increase in the IMF's intensity, and (6) a significant decrease in a normalized root-mean-square deviation (RMS)of the magnetic field - where the scheme was tested using 5, 10, 15, and 20 minute averages of the relevant physical quantities, in order to find the optimum average (and RMS) to use. Other criteria, besides these six, were examined and dismissed as not reliable, e.g., plasma speed. The scheme was developed specifically for aiding in forecasting the strength and timing of a geomagnetic storm due to the passage of an interplanetary MC in real-time, but can be used in post ground-data collection for imposition of consistency in choosing a MC's front boundary. The scheme has been extensively tested, first using 80 bona fide MCs over about 9 years of WIND data, and also for 121 MC-like structures as defined by a program that automatically identifies such structures over the same period. Optimum limits for various parameters in the scheme were found by statistical studies of the WIND MCs. The resulting limits can be user-adjusted for other data sets, if desired. Final testing of the 80 MCs showed that for 50 percent of the events the boundary estimates occurred within +/-10 minutes of visually determined times, 80 percent occurred within +/-30 minutes, and 91 percent occur within +/-60 minutes, and three or more individual boundary tests were passed for 88 percent of the total MCs. The scheme and its testing will be described.
Lepping, Ronald P.↗
STEREO as a "Planetary Hazards" Mission
NASA's twin STEREO probes, launched in 2006, have advanced the art and science of space weather forecasting more than any other spacecraft or solar observatory. By surrounding the Sun, they provide previously-impossible early warnings of threats approaching Earth as they develop on the solar far side. They have also revealed the 3D shape and inner structure of CMEs-massive solar storms that can trigger geomagnetic storms when they collide with Earth. This improves the ability of forecasters to anticipate the timing and severity of such events. Moreover, the unique capability of STEREO to track CMEs in three dimensions allows forecasters to make predictions for other planets, giving rise to the possibility of interplanetary space weather forecasting too. STEREO is one of those rare missions for which "planetary hazards" refers to more than one world. The STEREO probes also hold promise for the study of comets and potentially hazardous asteroids.
Heliosphere↗
Application of IRTAM to Support ISS Program Safety
The International Space Station (ISS) orbits near the F-peak of the ionosphere (approximately 400 km altitude). Generally, satellites orbiting at this altitude would have a floating potential (FP) of approximately -1 V due to the electron temperature (Te). However, the ISS has 8 large negatively grounded 160 V solar array wings (SAW) that collect a significant electron current from the ionosphere. This current drives the ISS FP much more negative during insolation and is highly dependent on the electron density (Ne). Also, due to the size of the ISS, magnetic inductance caused by the geomagnetic field produces a delta potential up to 40 V across the truss, possibly producing positive potentials. During Extravehicular Activity (EVA) the negative FP can lead to an arcing hazard when it exceeds -45.5 V, and the positive FP can produce a DC current high enough to stimulate the astronaut's muscles and also cause a hazard. Data collected from the Floating Potential Monitoring Unit (FPMU) have shown that the probability of either of these hazards occurring during times with quiet to moderately disturbed geomagnetic activity is low enough to no longer be considered a risk. However, a study of the ionosphere Ne during severe geomagnetic storm activity has shown that the Ne can be enhanced by a factor of 6 in the ISS orbit. As a result, the ISS Safety Review Panel (SRP) requires that ionospheric conditions be monitored using the FPMU in conjunction with the ISS Plasma Interaction Model (PIM) to determine if a severe geomagnetic storm could result in a plasma environment that could produce a hazard. A 'Real-Time' plasma hazard assessment process was developed to support ISS Program real-time decision making providing constraint relief information for EVAs planning and operations. This process incorporates 'real time' ionospheric conditions, ISS solar arrays' orientation, ISS flight attitude, and where the EVA will be performed on the ISS. This assessment requires real time data that is presently provided by the FPMU including ISS floating potential, along with ionospheric Ne and Te, in order to determine the present environment. Once the present environment conditions are known to be either above, below, or near the current IRI values, the IRI is used to forecast what the environment could become in the event of a severe geomagnetic storm. If the FPMU should fail, the Space Environments team needs another source of data which is utilized to support a short-term forecast for EVAs. The IRI Real-Time Assimilative Mapping (IRTAM) model is an ionospheric model that uses real time measurements from approximately 70 digisondes to produce foF2 and hmF2 global maps in 15 minute cadence. The Boeing Space Environments team has used the IRI coefficients produced in IRTAM to calculate the Ne along the ISS orbital track. The results of the IRTAM model have been compared to FPMU measurements and show excellent agreement (figure 1). IRTAM has been identified as a potential FPMU back-up system will be used as a backup for the FPMU to support the ISS Program following completion of an FPMU/IRTAM validation campaign.
Hartman, William A.↗
Magnetic Field Measurement on the C/NOFS Satellite: Geomagnetic Storm Effects in the Low Latitude Ionosphere
The Vector Electric Field Investigation (VEFI) suite onboard the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) spacecraft includes a sensitive fluxgate magnetometer to measure DC and ULF magnetic fields in the low latitude ionosphere. The instrument includes a DC vector measurement at 1 sample/sec with a range of +/- 45,000 nT whose primary objective is to provide direct measurements of both V x B and E x B that are more accurate than those obtained using a simple magnetic field model. These data can also be used for scientific research to provide information of large-scale ionospheric and magnetospheric current systems, which, when analyzed in conjunction with the C/NOFS DC electric field measurements, promise to advance our understanding of the electrodynamics of the low latitude ionosphere. In this study, we use the magnetic field data to study the temporal and local time variations of the ring currents during geomagnetic storms. We first compare the in situ measurements with the POMME (the POtsdam Magnetic Model of the Earth) model in order to provide an in-flight "calibration" of the data as well as compute magnetic field residuals essential for revealing large scale external current systems. We then compare the magnetic field residuals observed both during quiet times and during geomagnetic storms at the same geographic locations to deduce the magnetic field signatures of the ring current. As will be shown, the low inclination of the C/NOFS satellite provides a unique opportunity to study the evolution of the ring current as a function of local time, which is particularly insightful during periods of magnetic storms. This paper will present the initial results of this study.
Le, Guan↗
Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems
Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.
Pullkkinen, A.↗
Challenges in Understanding Radiation Belt Dynamics: Insights from Two Storm Periods
The periods of May 27 - June 5, 2017 and Oct 24 — 29, 2016 are 'unusual' in terms of radiation belt dynamics and their solar wind driving conditions. The first period was under the influence of a slow CME-led major geomagnetic storm with Dstmin = -125 nT and the second period was under high speed solar wind streams. Observations from Van Allen Probes show great variabilities in different electron energy channels for both periods. During the second period of Oct 24 - 29, 2016, electron fluxes are found to be near the highest upper limit among various storms during 2013–2018 (Hua, Bortnik and Ma, 2022). In this paper, we provide solar wind sources and geomagnetic conditions for these two storm periods and point out challenges in understanding, modeling, and forecasting radiation belt dynamics. In-depth analysis of modeling results utilizing radiation belt models available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center such as VERB and CIMI will be performed. Initial modeling results indicate rather large discrepancies with the observations. Model validation using different metrics introduced in Zheng et al. (2019) will be carried out to gain a deeper understanding of the physical processes involved and to identity potential causes of modeling inadequacies.
Yihua Zheng↗
Geoeffectiveness (D (sub st) and K (sub p)) of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1995-2009 and Implications for Storm Forecasting
We summarize the geoeffectiveness (based on the Dst and Kp indices) of the more than 300 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) that passed the Earth during 1996-2009, encompassing solar cycle 23. We subsequently estimate the probability that an ICME will generate geomagnetic activity that exceeds certain thresholds of Dst or Kp, including the NOAA "G" storm scale, based on maximum values of the southward magnetic field component (Bs), the solar wind speed (V), and the y component (Ey) of the solar wind convective electric field E = -V x B, in the ICME or sheath ahead of the ICME. Consistent with previous studies, the geoeffectiveness of an ICME is correlated with Bs or Ey approx.= VBs in the ICME or sheath, indicating that observations from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth are likely to provide the most reliable forecasts of the activity associated with an approaching ICME. There is also a general increase in geoeffectiveness with ICME speed, though the overall event-to-event correlation is weaker than for Bs and Ey. Nevertheless, using these results, we suggest that the speed of an ICME approaching the Earth inferred, for example, from routine remote sensing by coronagraphs on spacecraft well separated from the Earth or by all-sky imagers, could be used to estimate the likely geoeffectiveness of the ICME (our "comprehensive" ICME database provides a proxy for ICMEs identified in this way) with a longer lead time than may be possible using an upstream monitor
Richardson, I. G.↗
Forecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models. I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework
The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behavior of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating, and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example of Carrington Rotation 2077. We reconstruct the global topology of the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface model (PFSS) and the Schatten current sheet model (SCS) and discuss three empirical relationships for specifying the solar wind conditions near the Sun, namely the Wang–Sheeley (WS) model, the distance from the coronal hole boundary model (DCHB), and the Wang-Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model. By adding uncertainty in the latitude about the sub-Earth point, we select an ensemble of initial conditions and map the solutions to Earth by the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. We assess the forecasting performance from a continuous variable validation and find that the WSA model most accurately predicts the solar wind speed time series (RMSE≈83 km/s). We note that the process of ensemble forecasting slightly improves the forecasting performance of all solar wind models investigated. We conclude that the implemented framework is well suited for studying the relationship between coronal magnetic fields and the properties of the ambient solar wind flow in the near-Earth environment.
Reiss, Martin A.↗