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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1980

Solar power satellite offshore rectenna study

It was found that an offshore rectenna is feasible and cost competitive with land rectennas but that the type of rectenna which is suitable for offshore use is quite different from that specified in the present reference system. The result is a nonground plane design which minimizes the weight and greatly reduces the number of costly support towers. This preferred design is an antenna array consisting of individually encapsulated dipoles with reflectors supported on feed wires. Such a 5 GW rectenna could be built at a 50 m water depth site to withstand hurricane and icing conditions for a one time cost of 5.7 billion dollars. Subsequent units would be about 1/3 less expensive. The east coast site chosen for this study represents an extreme case of severe environmental conditions. More benign and more shallow water sites would result in lower costs. Secondary uses such as mariculture appear practical with only minor impact on the rectenna design. The potential advantages of an offshore rectenna, such as no land requirements, removal of microwave radiation from populated areas and minimal impact on the local geopolitics argue strongly that further investigation of the offshore rectenna should be vigorously pursued.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1985

The Landsat thematic mapper World Data Base

A World Data Base of potential thematic mapper (TM) scenes was developed to aid in acquisition planning. The World Data Base contains geopolitical, geographic and economic regions along with a format that enables users to find the satellite day, sun angle and cloud cover probability for any month of the year. Scenes that have been acquired by TM and have an average cloud cover of 30 percent of less from July 1982 when TM was launched until the Landsat system was taken over by NOAA in September 1984 are also in the World Data Base. Processed data are referenced in maps and data bases at EROS Data Center; however, a large number of acquistions have never been processed and therefore are not accessible. The World Data Base enables the rapid location of scenes and areas with the least effort making it invaluable in TM scheduling. Users of TM data can use the World Data Base to determine if scenes of interest have been acquired, the acquisition date, and if scenes have been processed to computer-compatible tape (CCT). These uses of the World Data Base make it a valuable tool in the acquisition and location of TM scenes.

Ludwig, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Project UM-HAUL: A self-unloading reusable lunar lander

The establishment of a lunar base is technologically and financially challenging. Given the necessary resources and political support, it can be done. In addition to the geopolitical obstacles, however, there are logistical problems involved in establishing such bases that can only be overcome with the acquisition of a significant transportation and communications network in the Earth-Moon spatial region. Considering the significant number of payloads that will be required in this process, the mass-specific cost of launching these payloads, and the added risk and cost of human presence in space, it is clearly desirable to automate major parts of such an operation. One very costly and time-consuming factor in this picture is the delivery of payloads to the Moon. Foreseeable payloads would include atmospheric modules, inflatable habitat kits, energy and oxygen plant elements, ground vehicles, laboratory modules, crew supplies, etc. The duration of high-risk human presence on the Moon could be greatly reduced if all such payloads were delivered to the prospective base site in advance of crew arrival. In this view, the idea of a 'Self-Unloading Reusable Lunar Lander' (SURLL) arises naturally. The general scenario depicts the lander being brought to low lunar orbit (LLO) from Earth atop a generic Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV). From LLO, the lander shuttles payloads down to the lunar surface, where, by means of some resident, detachable unloading device, it deploys the payloads and returns to orbit. The general goal is for the system to perform with maximum payload capability, automation, and reliability, while also minimizing environmental hazards, servicing needs, and mission costs. Our response to this demand is UM-HAUL, or the UnManned Heavy pAyload Unloader and Lander. The complete study includes a system description, along with a preliminary cost analysis and a design status assessment.

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NASA NTRS1992

A transportronic solution to the problem of interorbital transportation

An all-electronic transportation system described by the term 'transportronics' is examined as a means of solving the current problem of the high cost of transporting material from low-Earth orbit (LEO) to geostationary orbit (GEO). In this transportation system, low cost electric energy at the surface of the Earth is efficiently converted into microwave power which is then efficiently formed into a narrow beam which is kept incident upon the orbital transfer vehicles (OTV's) by electronic tracking. The incident beam is efficiently captured and converted into DC power by a device which has a very high ratio of DC power output to its mass. Because the mass of the electric thruster is also low, the resulting acceleration is unprecedented for electric-propelled vehicles. However, the performance of the system in terms of transit times from LEO to GEO is penalized by the short time of contact between the beam and the vehicle in low-Earth orbits. This makes it necessary to place the Earth based transmitters and the vehicles in the equatorial plane thus introducing many geopolitical factors. Technically, however, such a system as described in the report may out-perform any other approach to transportation in the LEO to GEO regime. The report describes and analyzes all portions of the beamed microwave power transmission system in considerable detail. An economic analysis of the operating and capital costs is made with the aid of a reference system capable of placing about 130,000 kilograms of payload into GEO each year. More mature states of the system are then examined, to a level in which 60,000 metric tons per year could be placed into GEO.

Brown, William C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Marketing Remote Sensing Data for North Pacific Fisheries Development and Management

Fish poaching, drug trafficking, ocean dumping, and other illegal activities are important problems on the high seas and in national economic zones. The primary thrust of the EOCAP II project, "Marketing Remote Sensing Data for North Pacific Fisheries Development and Management", was to use space-based sensors to improve the effectiveness of marine monitoring, control, and surveillance (MCS). Our initial objectives were to concentrate on the development of MCS tools using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometry (AVHRR) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Although we have successfully completed development of an initial version of our SAR-based monitoring tool (OmniVision), project activity has resulted in a much broader application of space-based assets to marine applications. Based in part on work commenced within EOCAP II, a new company, Ocean and Coastal Environmental Sensing, Inc. (OCENS), has been launched and the development of several new software products outside of the MCS arena initiated. One of those products, SeaStation, is near completion with a Fall, 1995 release date. Equity investment in OCENS now totals $70,000-with an additional amount being sought in the first round of financing. One of the pre-eminent objectives of EOCAP II is to make contributions to the US economy and job growth through the expansion of commercial uses of remotely sensed data. OCENS and the software products it is introducing into marine and coastal zone markets responds to this primary object*e. EOCAP II funding leveraged the market and technical know-how of OCENS founders into smart products that benefit marine and coastal zone users. Although technical difficulties and geopolitical shifts damaged the commercial feasibility of initial project objectives, the flexibility of the EOCAP II program now permits long-term business success. This in no small part stems from the fact that the EOCAP program recognizes the realities of small and start-up businesses and does not attempt to force these conditions to fit the apparent needs of big government. Instead, EOCAP works with those who know their market best in order to produce successful products and expanding businesses.

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NASA NTRS2001

EGIS - An Environmental GIS Developed for NASA Field Center Applications

As the principal center for Environmental Geographic Information Systems (EGIS), the John C. Stennis Space Center (SSC), located in Hancock County, Mississippi, has been assigned technical support requirements to design and to implement a basic EGIS data base for all NASA Field Centers. The intent of this Phase I effort is to produce a baseline EGIS data base incorporating newly available remotely sensed data as well as existing environmental data. A example application of the use of the data base at Stennis Space Center will be to illustrate baseline environmental conditions for consideration with proposed propulsion test stand development and operation. To effectively answer questions related to environmental issues at each center, organization of the data layers and sources will include the following categories: Cadastral/Geodetic; Geopolitical; Hydrography; Infrastructure; Physical Geography; Socioeconomic; Remote Sensing Imagery; Associated Metadata. As part of a Phase II effort, site-specific data and applications will be implemented and added to the data base at each Field Center. This poster illustrates the framework of the design and implementation of a basic EGIS data base. Shown are example data sources, hardware and software, and data base delivery and installation. The poster also depicts future recommendations for a centrally located server to house each of the NASA Field Center data bases. The server will allow real-time data base updates with additional layers and models for each center. Expansion of the EGIS data base will continue to grow as site-specific applications are developed addressing the ongoing evolution of environmental concerns at all NASA Field Centers.

Smoot, James↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Ethics of Human Spaceflight

This chapter intends to lay out some essential ethics questions that might frame the next step of space exploration. In this, I undertake two sorts of tasks. The first is to respond to the core ethic question: Is it ethical to travel in space? The second, assuming for the moment that I can convince you that the first premise can be justified, is to comment on what ethical challenges will face us there. It is appropriate to have a philosopher comment on this at the fortieth anniversary celebration, since it was also in 1962 that the National Academy of Science first convened a panel of philosophers to comment on space travel. They asked at that time whether it was indeed a worthwhile pursuit to travel in space and what might be expected of such an effort. What is at stake in any such boundary crossing is how the changing of essential human perimeters changes our own moral status. Will such boundary crossing worsen our human condition, or will it enhance it? In this way, the geopolitical quest is then linked to the quest for ontology, Pisarro hunting for the fountain of youth, for gold, and for territory. What follows are a series of ethical claims that link the problem of discovery in the larger world and the attendant ethical dilemmas of our explorations, as well as how this exploration alters our concepts of life on Earth. In this, the role of the ethicist is to function as both a skeptic and a stranger, aware of the optimism of science and the pessimism of philosophy.

Zoloth, Laurie↗
NASA NTRS2007

The 'Weekend Effect' in Tropospheric NO2 Seen from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument has gathered daily global data on NO2 and other atmospheric trace gases since its launch on the EOS Aura satellite in 2004. The large accumulated data set makes it possible to monitor changes of both meteorological and anthropogenic origin in tropospheric NOz amounts. In particular, averages on time scales on the order of a year show a distinct 'weekend effect' in NO2 variation, with smaller NO2 amounts seen on Saturday and/or Sunday than on the remaining weekdays. Using the OMI NO2 Standard Product (SP), we examine this effect in relation to geopolitical boundaries and investigate implications for identifying sources. We also use the SP data to find evidence for other short-term anthropogenic changes in NO2 emissions over heavily polluted regions including the United States, Europe and China.

Bucsela, E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

What if Things Get Worse? Really Grand Challenges for Modeling and Simulation in a Risky and Complex World or Modeling and Simulation for the "Greater Good"?

Today Modeling and Simulation-- ---as an important practice or industry or area of expertise ----- is at a complex crossroad - a sort of cyber-highway--where these complexities meet-technical, economic, environmental, geopolitical and cultural. They may converge or collide. Let's not kid ourselves. It is all too much for anyone person or organization Malcolm Gladwell said it. "We have constructed a world in which the potential for high tech catastrophe is embedded in the fabric of everyday life." We are surrounded by problems that scream at us from our television, Internet and social networks along with billboards and protest signs. We face not just high tech catastrophes but, also, landslides, earthquakes, tornados, floods and hurricanes and large-scale criminality. Evil, war, famine and pestilence have not gone away. It is all too much to think about. My friend, George Peabody, who taught me everything I know about power said that addressing such issues requires that we constantly build our network, information resources and the credibility and visibility of our work. That is how we will build the power of simulation so it can change the world --even maybe, save it. We need all the help we can get and give one another because our human early warning systems appear to be out of kilter. We seem to have trouble imagining how small failings can continue to lead to catastrophic disaster. Think about O-rings and blowout preventers. One is reminded of the old nursery rhyme, "For want of a nail, a shoe was lost! for want of a shoe the horse was lost! for want of a rider the battle was lost and so the kingdom fell." Although the investigation will take more time for real answers, it is worrisome that a rig worker reported to the BBC that-- weeks before the explosion of Deep Ocean Horizon. -he identified a leak in the oil rig's safety equipment -the Control Pod of the blowout preventer which has giant shears designed to cut and seal off the well's main pipe. With both electronics and hydraulics, these are effectively the brains of the blowout preventer. No one fixed it, he alleges, they just shut it down and relied on the other control pod -an act deemed unacceptable by petroleum expert, Tad Patzek, at the University of Texas. The US Congress has identified numerous other problems with the blowout preventer, including design problems and unexpected modifications.

Fifrey, Priscilla↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Dynamic Earth: 50 Years of Observations from Space

Observations of the surface of the Earth began more than a half century ago with the earliest space missions. The global geopolitical environment at the beginning of the space age fueled advances in rocketry and human exploration, but also advances in remote sensing. At the same time that space-based Earth Observations were developing, global investments in infrastructure that were initiated after World War II accelerated large projects such as the construction of highways, the expansion of cities and suburbs, the damming of rivers, and the growth of big agriculture. These developments have transformed the Earth s surface at unprecedented rates. Today, we have a remarkable library of 50 years of observations of the Earth taken by satellite-based sensors and astronauts, and these images and observations provide insight into the workings of the Earth as a system. In addition, these observations record the footprints of human activities around the world, and illustrate how our activities contribute to the changing face of the Earth. Starting with the iconic "Blue Marble" image of the whole Earth taken by Apollo astronauts, we will review a timeline of observations of our planet as viewed from space.

Evans, Cynthia A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Space-Based Detection of Missing Sulfur Dioxide Sources of Global Air Pollution

Sulfur dioxide is designated a criteria air contaminant (or equivalent) by virtually all developed nations. When released into the atmosphere, sulfur dioxide forms sulfuric acid and fine particulate matter, secondary pollutants that have significant adverse effects on human health, the environment and the economy. The conventional, bottom-up emissions inventories used to assess impacts, however, are often incomplete or outdated, particularly for developing nations that lack comprehensive emission reporting requirements and infrastructure. Here we present a satellite-based, global emission inventory for SO2 that is derived through a simultaneous detection, mapping and emission-quantifying procedure, and thereby independent of conventional information sources. We find that of the 500 or so large sources in our inventory, nearly 40 are not captured in leading conventional inventories. These missing sources are scattered throughout the developing world-over a third are clustered around the Persian Gulf-and add up to 7 to 14 Tg of SO2 yr(exp -1), or roughly 6-12% of the global anthropogenic source. Our estimates of national total emissions are generally in line with conventional numbers, but for some regions, and for SO2 emissions from volcanoes, discrepancies can be as large as a factor of three or more. We anticipate that our inventory will help eliminate gaps in bottom-up inventories, independent of geopolitical borders and source types.

OMI↗
NASA NTRS2018

Identifying the Community Structure of the Food-Trade International Multi-Network

Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of international food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the multi-network's community structure. Here we find that the individual crop-specific layers of the multi-network have densely connected trading groups, a consistent characteristic over the period 2001-2011. Further, the multi-network is characterized by low variability over this period but with substantial heterogeneity across layers in each year. In particular, the layers are mostly assortative: more-intensively connected countries tend to import from and export to countries that are themselves more connected. We also fit econometric models to identify social, economic and geographic factors explaining the probability that any two countries are co-present in the same community. Our estimates indicate that the probability of country pairs belonging to the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors-such as geographical proximity and trade-agreement co-membership-than on country economic size and/or income. These community-structure findings of the multi-network are especially valuable for efforts to understand past and emerging dynamics in the global food system, especially those that examine potential 'shocks' to global food trade.

complex networks↗
NASA NTRS2018

Portable, Low-Cost, Column Carbon Dioxide and Methane Measurements for Validating Satellite Observations in Remote Locations

We present a low-cost (~$10K per instrument), portable solution to ground-based validation of satellite observations for difficult to reach locations with precisions of 1 ppm XCO2 and 10 ppb XCH4 for hourly data products. While Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) is the gold-standard for ground validation, there are locations where a ground column validation data point would be useful but conditions are not conducive to a permanent station. Examples include wetlands, thawing permafrost, the tropics, the Amazon, sub-Saharan Africa, as well as locations without a power grid or with geopolitical conflict. In addition, the low-cost and portability mean a geographical region can be studied in depth with multiple instruments. This passive, sun-pointing instrument is a miniaturized, laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR) that has been under development by our team since 2009. It can be operated either in tandem with AERONET (a global network of 500 instruments that measure aerosol optical depth), or as a stand-alone instrument with a low-cost (~$3K), light-weight sun tracker. One of the main benefits of the mini-LHR is that it can quickly reach remote locations and provide a validation measurement even if there is limited or no infrastructure at the site. The instrument weighs ~10 lbs, fits into a backpack, and is powered by two folding solar panels and a battery pack. In clear conditions, the instrument can be set-up in under an hour. Portability means that mini-LHRs can be easily moved for side-by-side comparisons with other mini-LHRs and with TCCON which simplifies assessing instrument bias as well as accuracy. Like TCCON, the mini-LHR points directly at the sun with a narrow field-of-view and is its insensitivity to cloud and aerosol scattering that is common to nadir-pointing passive satellite approaches. Here we present a collection of sample data sets to demonstrate performance from locations that vary in climate, altitude, solar zenith angle, hours of sun per day, etc., as well as data from side-by-side TCCON comparisons. Retrievals of CO2 and CH4 were completed using the NASA/Goddard's Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG) that incorporates meteorological inputs from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) data set.

Wilson, Emily W.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Lecture 20: The Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM)

Climate change will profoundly impact Earth's environmental health as well as the world's economic and geopolitical landscape over the coming decades. The impacts of climate change are, in fact, already beginning to be experienced and have the potential to affect every living plant and animal on Earth within decades. Given this reality, every citizen of this planet should have the right to knowledge about the Earth's climate system and have the option to adapt to, or help mitigate the profound changes that are coming. In addition, a portion of the workforce needs to be capable of interpreting and analyzing climate information because, since the impacts of climate change will be widespread, pervasive, and continue to change over time, more professions will be interacting with climate data. We are already at, or past, the point where educators and their students require access to the scientific and technological resources - computer models, data, and visualization tools - that scientists use daily in the study of climate change. Although scientists use many methods to study Earth's climate system, global climate models (GCMs) have become the primary tools for exploring the complex interactions between components of the entire system: atmosphere, oceans, and land. GCMs are used to make projections of future climate change, to simulate climates of the past, and even to help scientists look for life on other planets. Like any model, a GCM can help people evaluate actions before they are taken. Like Business Intelligence software, they are Climate Intelligence tools. Unfortunately, GCMs are black boxes to most people. A previous chapter in this book by Gary Russell, entitled Building a Climate Model, is one example of the growing body of literature aimed at the general public describing the inner workings of global climate models. This literature goes a long way toward explaining climate model fundamentals. However, it will not be enough to alleviate their black-box nature unless people are afforded hands-on, authentic learning experiences as well.

Chandler, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Monitoring River Basin Development and Variation in Water Resources in Transboundary Imjin River in North and South Korea Using Remote Sensing

This paper presents methods of monitoring river basin development and water variability for the transboundary river in North and South Korea. River basin development, such as dams and water infrastructure in transboundary rivers, can be a potential factor of tensions between upstream and downstream countries since dams constructed upstream can adversely affect downstream riparians. However, because most of the information related to North Korea has been limited to the public, the information about dams constructed and their locations were inaccurate in many previous studies. In addition, water resources in transboundary rivers can be exploited as a political tool. Specifically, due to the unexpected water release from the Hwanggang Dam, upstream of the transboundary Imjin River in North and South Korea, six South Koreans died on 6 September 2009. The Imjin River can be used as a political tool by North Korea, and seven events were reported as water conflicts in the Imjin River from 2001 to 2016. In this paper, firstly, we have updated the information about the dams constructed over the Imjin River in North Korea using multi-temporal images with a high spatial resolution (15-30 cm) obtained from Google Earth. Secondly, we analyzed inter- and intra-water variability over the Hwanggang Reservoir using open-source images obtained from the Global Surface Water Explorer. We found a considerable change in water surface variability before and after 2008, which might result from the construction of the Hwanggang Dam. Thirdly, in order to further investigate intra-annual water variability, we present a method monitoring water storage changes of the Hwanggang Reservoir using the area-elevation curve (AEC), which was derived from multi-sensor Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images (Sentinel-1A and -1B) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Since many previous studies for estimating water storage change have depended on satellite altimetry dataset and optical images for deriving AEC, the method adopted in this study is the only application for such inaccessible areas since no altimetry ground track exists for the Hwanggang Reservoir and because clouds can block the study area for wet seasons. Moreover, this study has newly proven that unexpected water release can occur in dry seasons because the water storage in the Hwanggang Reservoir can be high enough to conduct a release that can be used as a geopolitical tool. Using our method, potential risks can be mitigated, not in response to a water release, but based on pre-event water storage changes in the Hwanggang Reservoir.

Kim, Donghwan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Resiliency in Future Cislunar Space Architectures

Resiliency is an aspirational metric, and it is a common goal for complex systems – be they engineered space architectures, geopolitical networks, or the human immune system. However, despite the ubiquitous desire for resiliency, the concept is surprisingly difficult to define and apply to future planning efforts. We assert that resiliency can emerge from a layered approach of deliberately chosen capabilities with overlap and flexibility that, in aggregate, result in a resilient system. The challenge is to identify capabilities that contribute to resiliency and to accurately characterize their value. Resiliency is discussed through the lens of future architecture planning, outlining how the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) can benefit from a shift in approach when transitioning focus to the cislunar environment.

Jason Hay↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Premature Mortality By Dust and Pollution PM 2.5 Estimated From Aerosol Reanalysis of the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2

This study quantifies global premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure of ambient PM 2.5 , or PM 2.5 -attributable mortality, by dust and pollution sources. We used NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis product for PM 2.5 and the cause-specific relative risk (RR) from the integrated exposure-response (IER) model to estimate global PM2.5-attributable mortality for five causes of deaths, namely ischaemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (CEV) or stroke, lung cancer (LC), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI). The estimated yearly global PM 2.5 -attributable mortality in 2019 amounts to 2.89 (1.38–4.48) millions, which is composed of 1.19 (0.73–1.84) million from IHD, 1.01 (0.35–1.55) million from CEV, 0.29 (0.11–0.48) million from COPD, 0.23 (0.14–0.33) million from ALRI, and 0.17 (0.04–0.28) million from LC (the numbers in parentheses represent the estimated mortality range due corresponding to RR spread at the 95% confidence interval). The mortality counts vary with geopolitical regions substantially, with the highest number of deaths occurring in Asia. China and India account for 40% and 23% of the global PM 2.5 -attributable deaths, respectively. In terms of sources of PM 2.5 , about 22% of the global all-cause PM 2.5 -attributable deaths are caused by desert dust. The largest dust attribution is 37% for ALRI. The relative contributions of dust and pollution sources vary with the causes of deaths and geographical regions. Enforcing air pollution regulations to transfer areas from PM 2.5 nonattainment to PM2.5 attainment can have great health benefits. Being attainable with the United States air quality standard (AQS) of 15 μg/m 3 globally would have avoided nearly 40% or 1.2 million premature deaths. The most recent update of PM 2.5 guideline from 10 to 5 μg/m 3 by the World Health Organization (WHO) would potentially save additional one million lives. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing aerodynamic size from geometric size in accurately assessing the global health burden of PM 2.5 and particularly for dust. A use of geometric size in diagnosing dust PM 2.5 from the model simulation, a common approach in current health burden assessment, could overestimate the PM 2.5 level in the dust belt by 40–170%, leading to an overestimate of global all-cause mortality by 1 million or 32%.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AgMIP Local, National and Global Assessments of Food System Challenges in A Changing Climate

Food systems connect a diverse network of stakeholders around the world, with complex dynamics governing production, processing, transportation, trade and consumption of food products. Extreme conditions can disrupt multiple components of the food system, with systemic connections providing structure that can both buffer and exacerbate risks. Climate change is shifting current practices in agricultural production and the broader food system, encouraging shifts toward more diverse value chains capable of drawing from multiple food producing regions to reduce the chance that an entire value chain be subject to simultaneous impacts. The IPCC Working Group I report assessed that heat waves, fires, floods and severe storms are becoming more pronounced and widespread with each degree of global warming, increasing food system risk. Food system disruptions can also come from outside the climate system, including from viral outbreaks, geopolitical conflict and socioeconomic changes. This presentation will highlight how the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) develops modeling approaches that connect climate, biophysical and socioeconomic models in order to capture complex responses of the food system and potential interventions by diverse stakeholders in the public and private sectors. Models are applied on a range of scales that match decision contexts. These include households in specific agricultural production regions (e.g., within a country), national-level policymakers considering policies, sustainability and development priorities for a country’s agricultural sector, and global food market models that balance production and consumption around the world with competition for land, water, energy and sustainability priorities. Models are capable of capturing many important responses, but further development is needed to represent key systemic risks and the possibility for additional interventions beyond the farm gate. Improved food system models will provide important insights into our society’s ability to cope with climate change, as well as our ability to identify agricultural adaptation and mitigation opportunities to reduce overall risk.

Food systems↗