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DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Climate-Disease Connections in Geopolitical Versus Ecological Regions: The Case of West Nile Virus in the United States

Many infectious disease forecasting models in the United States (US) are built with data partitioned into geopolitical regions centered on human activity as opposed to regions defined by natural ecosystems; although useful for data collection and intervention, this has the potential to mask biological relationships between the environment and disease. We explored this concept by analyzing the correlations between climate and West Nile virus (WNV) case data aggregated to geopolitical and ecological regions. We compared correlations between minimum, maximum, and mean annual temperature; precipitation; and annual WNV neuroinvasive disease (WNND) case data from 2005 to 2019 when partitioned into (a) climate regions defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and (b) Level I ecoregions defined by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). We found that correlations between climate and WNND in NOAA climate regions and EPA ecoregions were often contradictory in both direction and magnitude, with EPA ecoregions more often supporting previously established biological hypotheses and environmental dynamics underlying vector-borne disease transmission. Using ecological regions to examine the relationships between climate and disease cases can enhance the predictive power of forecasts at various scales, motivating a conceptual shift in large-scale analyses from geopolitical frameworks to more ecologically meaningful regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Ameliorating Global Challenges: Globalization, Geopolitics, Basic & Applied Research, and Research Security

We are confronted with a myriad of global challenges, from extreme weather events, occurring at higher frequencies than at any point in history, to pollution, food insecurity, clean water shortages, and fundamentally limited natural resources and materials. The largest number of people inhabit our planet today and enjoy the highest standard of living - though not equally distributed across the world - compared to any prior moment in history. To sustain this quality of life, we are largely reliant on fossil fuel sources, which are responsible for more greenhouse gas emissions by weight each day than the collective weight of all humans that inhabit the planet. Ameliorating these global challenges will require elements of solutions that include advances in basic and applied research, innovative global engineering, materials discovery, new technologies, manufacturing at scale, resilient and adaptable infrastructure, carbon-free energy sources and storage technologies, and new supply chain networks and markets. Success will require constructive collaborative efforts between researchers in countries located in every continent of this planet. For any of these goals to be realized in a timely fashion, geopolitical leaders must become better educated about this existential challenge and incentivized to act.

applied research↗

DOE OSTI2025

Trends and 2025 Insights on the Rise of Electric Vehicles in the USA

Plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are reshaping the transportation energy landscape, providing a practical alternative to petroleum fuels for a growing number of applications. EV sales grew 55x in the past decade (2014-2024) and 6x since 2020, driven by technological progress enabled by policies to reduce transportation emissions as well as industrial plans motivated by strategic value of EVs for global competitiveness, jobs and geopolitics. In 2024, 22% of passenger cars sold globally were EVs and opportunities for EVs beyond on-road applications are growing, including solutions to electrify off-road vehicles, maritime and aviation. This Review updates and expands our 2020 assessment of the scientific literature and describes the current status and future projections of EV markets, charging infrastructures, vehicle-grid integration and supply chains in the USA. EV is the lowest-emission motorized on-road transportation option, with life-cycle emissions decreasing as electricity emissions continue to decrease. Charging infrastructure grew in line with EV adoption but providing ubiquitous reliable and convenient charging remains a challenge. EVs are reducing electricity costs in several US markets and coordinated EV charging can improve grid resilience and reduce electricity costs for all consumers. The current trajectory of technology improvement and industrial investments points to continued acceleration of EVs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Our Renewable Energy Future: The Remarkable Story of How Renewable Energy Will Become the Basis for Our Lives

Our Renewable Energy Future delves into the clean energy technology evolution and where our energy system is going. While the book's foundation is technology innovation, it brings a unique perspective that technology alone is not what has brought about the explosive growth of renewable energy and offers fresh insights into how technology, economics, social dynamics, policy, and geopolitics are forces affecting our energy future. This book is a culmination of Dr Arent's lifelong passion for energy, sustainable development, and renewable energy technology. It covers the journey of evolving technology, economics, political economy and geopolitics of clean energy over the last 40 years and provides insights for the coming decades. From a technology perspective, the book traces the arc of recent innovations and synthesizes innovations across multiple interacting perspectives into a description of Our Renewable Energy Future.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Life Cycle Analysis of Methanol Production and Methanol-to-Diesel Conversion

Methanol is a strategic chemical and intermediate in the manufacture of synthetic diesel, due to its versatility, diesel’s compatibility with existing infrastructure, and their role in industrial and transport applications. Conventional production methods for methanol, primarily steam methane reforming (SMR), rely on natural gas and are subject to the price variability due to market conditions and geopolitical events. They are also associated with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Methanol and synthetic diesel production could be integrated with nuclear energy to stabilize fuel prices and insulate pricing from outside geopolitical events due to the relative stability of nuclear fuel as compared to natural gas. This could lead to increased transportation fuel security, reliability and resilience. An added benefit is the abatement of emissions when substituting nuclear energy for conventional energy from natural gas. This report presents a comprehensive life cycle analysis(LCA) framework which was developed to evaluate the GHG emissions reduction potential associated with nuclear integrated methanol production, methanol-to-diesel upgrading, and end-use combustion. Gate-to-gate methanol production and cradle-to-grave emissions were evaluated in, starting with a business-as-usual (BAU) SMR-based methanol plant, and then considering stepwise nuclear integration. Methanol-to-diesel (MTD) conversion was evaluated accounting for nuclear energy integration and hydrogen production via high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) using electricity either from the grid or from a dedicated nuclear power system. This multi-step process diverts stable and reliable nuclear energy into the transportation sector by upgrading low energy dense natural gas into liquid fuels fully compatible with existing infrastructure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Explosion Monitoring in the Changing Arctic

As the Arctic warms and loses its perennial ice cover, it attracts new attention as a locus for resource extraction, commerce, communication, and defense. The region previously had a relatively low priority in global geopolitics due to operational challenges but is quickly attracting interest for economic growth, competition, and potential conflict. Future years and decades will see a transformation of the Arctic’s place in global geopolitics. In this context, monitoring both human and natural activity in the Arctic is increasingly critical.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Structural and Compositional Evolution during NMC Cathode Direct Recycling via Solid-State NMR

Recycling end-of-life lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) to recover high-value cathode materials such as LiNixMnyCozO2 (NMC) is driven by economical, geopolitical, and sustainability needs. There has been recent interest in direct recycling methods to improve efficiency and recovery of materials, including ionothermal, hydothermal, solid-state, or redox mediator methods. In conjunction with recycling process development, detailed structural characterization is necessary in order to understand the mechanisms and efficacy of cathode recycling steps. Solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy is a unique tool that can probe Li coordination, bulk and surface environments, and transition metal ordering in recycled and upcycled NMC cathodes. Here, 6,7Li, 1H, and 19F NMR spectroscopy to probe structural and compositional changes as well as surface impurities that may form during each step in NMC direct recycling is utilized. During relithiation, Li reinsertion into the NMC lattice is observed. During upcycling, where the goal is to increase the Ni content in the NMC, incorporation of Ni-rich phases into the bulk Li environment is observed. Surface impurities formed during processing were also identified. These studies provide valuable information for optimizing recycling processes to reach targeted cathode composition and structure that can enable electrochemical performance comparable to or better than pristine materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Role and Substitution of Cobalt in the Cobalt‐Lean/Free Nickel‐Based Layered Transition Metal Oxides for Lithium Ion Batteries

Here, the Nickel-based layered transition metal oxide cathode represented by NCM (LiNi x Co y Mn z O 2 , x+y+z=1) and NCA (LiNi x Co y Al z O 2 , x+y+z=1) is widely used in the electric vehicle market due to its specific capacity and high working potential, in which Cobalt (Co) plays a huge role in improving the structural stability during the cycle. However, the limited supply of Co, due to its scarcity and the influence of geopolitics, poses a significant constraint on the further advancement of the Nickel-based layered transition metal oxide cathode in the field of energy storage. In this paper, the mechanism of Co in the Nickel-based layered transition metal oxides is reviewed, including its critical role for structural stability such as the inhibition of cationic mixing and the release of lattice oxygen et al. Subsequently, it outlines various strategies to enhance the performance of Co-lean/free materials, such as ion doping, including single-ion doping and multi-ion co-doping, and various surface coating strategies, so as to eliminate the adverse effects of Co loss on materials. Ultimately, this paper offers a glimpse into the promising future of Cobalt-free strategies for high performance of Nickel-based layered transition metal oxides.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimated attribution of the RFS program on soybean biodiesel in the U.S. using the bioenergy scenario model

Biofuels are supported by various governmental policies in the U.S. and globally as an alternative transportation fuel for environmental, geopolitical, and economic reasons. Much debate surrounds the effectiveness of these policies as well as the overall net environmental effect of increased biofuels use. In the U.S., recent studies have shown that the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program, overall, may not have been the leading driver of the ethanol industry from 2005 to 2020, contrary to common perception. Similar scrutiny has not been applied to biodiesel. Here, this study uses the Bioenergy Scenario Model, a well-vetted system dynamics model, to retrospectively apportion historical biodiesel production between the RFS Program and other potentially influential drivers, such as the economics of biodiesel vs. diesel, the Biodiesel Tax Credit (BTC), California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and other factors. From 2002 to 2020 about 36% of biodiesel production can be attributed to the RFS Program, 35% to the BTC, and the rest to other factors. Thus, the overall effect of the RFS Program appears much larger on biodiesel than on corn ethanol. The finding that the same policy may have very disparate effects on different biofuels helps inform the design of future policies on biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

The complex polyploid genome architecture of sugarcane

Sugarcane, the world’s most harvested crop by tonnage, has shaped global history, trade and geopolitics, and is currently responsible for 80% of sugar production worldwide. While traditional sugarcane breeding methods have effectively generated cultivars adapted to new environments and pathogens, sugar yield improvements have recently plateaued. The cessation of yield gains may be due to limited genetic diversity within breeding populations, long breeding cycles and the complexity of its genome, the latter preventing breeders from taking advantage of the recent explosion of whole-genome sequencing that has benefited many other crops. Thus, modern sugarcane hybrids are the last remaining major crop without a reference-quality genome. Here we take a major step towards advancing sugarcane biotechnology by generating a polyploid reference genome for R570, a typical modern cultivar derived from interspecific hybridization between the domesticated species (Saccharum officinarum) and the wild species (Saccharum spontaneum). In contrast to the existing single haplotype (‘monoploid’) representation of R570, our 8.7 billion base assembly contains a complete representation of unique DNA sequences across the approximately 12 chromosome copies in this polyploid genome. Using this highly contiguous genome assembly, we filled a previously unsized gap within an R570 physical genetic map to describe the likely causal genes underlying the single-copy Bru1 brown rust resistance locus. This polyploid genome assembly with fine-grain descriptions of genome architecture and molecular targets for biotechnology will help accelerate molecular and transgenic breeding and adaptation of sugarcane to future environmental conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Global 30 Arcsecond Annual Global Gridded Population Datasets from 2000 to 2022

Abstract Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) annually develops the LandScan Global (LSG) dataset, a 30 arcsecond global gridded population dataset representing global ambient human population distribution. This multivariable dasymetric model disaggregates census counts within administrative boundaries using ancillary data. Each country’s distribution reflects cultural and socioeconomic patterns; manual validations yield a unique global dataset for assessing populations at risk. For over two decades, LSG has been a standard for estimating populations at risk, aiding U.S. federal government, academia and humanitarian organizations. During disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2010 Haiti earthquake and geopolitical crises such as the Syrian civil war and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, LSG supported scientific and operational communities in emergency response and recovery. In 2022, LSG datasets from 2000 onward were made publicly available through ORNL’s LandScan Portal. This data descriptor details our methodology and the application of geospatial science and machine learning to geographic and demographic data, highlighting uses in urban resiliency, emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Teller–Ulam Innovation at 75: An Idea that Changed the World and Disputes over Credit

The 1951 Teller–Ulam breakthrough led to the 1952 invention of the hydrogen bomb and set the template for subsequent thermonuclear weapons designs that have played a pivotal role in geopolitics. In the years that followed, disputes arose as to how credit should be apportioned. This article surveys the claims made by Teller and Ulam, as well as by top U.S. scientists who were working with them on the H-bomb project at Los Alamos, drawing on many sources that are not widely available. It is hoped that these documented opinions of key scientific leaders (Bethe, Wheeler, Bradbury, Garwin, and so on), together with the cover page of the H-bomb patent, will be of interest to readers. The opinions vary widely, and even Teller and Ulam changed their assessments with time, becoming more convinced of their own dominant role as they aged. The average of the opinions is that Teller deserves about two-thirds of the credit and Ulam, one-third. While these disputes might detract from the elegance of scientific progress, they do show that advances occur from collaboration, competition, and varying lines of attack; indeed, the key contributors to this innovation might be better named as Teller–Ulam–Fermi–Konopinski–de Hoffmann.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale approaches for optimizing the impact of strain on Na-ion battery cycle life

Abstract The high costs and geopolitical challenges inherent to the lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery supply chain have driven a rising interest in the development of sodium-ion (Na-ion) batteries as a potential alternative. Unfortunately, the larger ionic radius of Na limits the reversibility of cycling because of the extensive atomic rearrangements that accompany Na-ion insertion, which in turn limit diffusion and charging speed, and lead to rapid degradation of the electrodes. The Center for Strain Optimization for Renewable Energy (STORE) was established to address these challenges and develop new electrode materials for Na-ion cells. This article discusses the current state-of-the-art materials used in Na-ion cells and several directions that STORE believes are critical to understand and control the structural and volumetric changes during the reversible (de)insertion of large cations. Graphical abstract Highlights Understanding the fundamental way materials respond to localized strains at the atomic length-scale is a critical first step in the development of highly reversible, long cycle life, Na-ion insertion hosts. This perspective explores a variety of methods that can be employed to mitigate the detrimental effects of large strain. The insights gained from these investigations should help lay the foundation for the creation of more economical and sustainable batteries that could have immediate impact on global energy infrastructure. Discussion Although there is near universal agreement that electrochemical energy storage must be an integral part of a green-energy future, there is less agreement about how to reduce the cost of energy storage. Replacing high-cost lithium-ion cells with lower-cost sodium-ion batteries is one option frequently considered in future energy models, but the details of what can be achieve with optimized sodium cell performance remains unclear. Here we posit that developing methods to mitigating strain on the electrode particle length scale is a key factor for achieving long-cycle-life sodium-ion batteries. Mitigating strain on the atomic scale suppress electrode-level volume change. Allowing for fast cycling in materials without the problems of electrode cracking or delamination. We further posit that understanding volume change in sodium-ion electrodes at a fundamental level will lead to the designing new sodium-ion electrode materials that will allow for efficient, stable, lower-cost energy storage.

Brady, Michael J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Gray Zone Tactics Used Against Green Energy Supply Chains

This report documents a project demonstrating capabilities within Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Cyber and Infrastructure Resilience program to place newly developed numeric simulations into the current, larger geopolitical context. The emergence of state-backed gray zone threats introduces an unprecedented challenge because they fall short of armed conflict and involve ambiguous tactics, requiring a fresh analytical approach to understanding their potential impact and countering them. In the context of our project, we analyze how China might use gray zone tactics to degrade the power of the United States, including our influence over global efforts to combat climate change.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Unrealized Critical Lanthanide Extraction from Sea Algae Mining (UNCLE SAM): Domestic production of critical minerals from seawater

The UNCLE-SAM project, under the Biotechnologies to Ensure a Robust Supply of Critical Materials for Clean Energy program, examined the biomining applications of seaweeds for sustainable, domestic production of critical mineral feedstocks. The ocean is a vast reserve of mineralogical wealth including rare earth elements (REEs) and platinum group metal (PGMs). These elements, categorized as “critical minerals”, are used in telecommunication devices, lasers, LED lighting, turbine generators, electric car motors, jet engine alloys, and many other applications. These critical elements are increasingly vital to a thriving, efficient and sustainable society. However, only a few countries in the global market currently produce and export REEs, leading to potential geopolitical supply disruptions. Marine macroalgae, often referred to as seaweeds, bioconcentrate critical minerals from seawater, including REEs and PGMs. Marine algae cultivation can generate a significant amount of biomass with minimal freshwater, fertilizer, and land requirements. In summary, the UNCLE-SAM project successfully evaluated the technological feasibility for marine macroalgal cultivation as a feedstock for critical minerals, explored the biological capacity of different seaweeds to provide economically relevant domestic mineral production, assessed processing techniques for thermal co-conversion of seaweeds into renewable fuel and mineral feedstocks, and executed techno-economic and lifecycle assessments for identifying the most critical gaps in our current understanding to move the technology into commercially relevant deployment. Further development of this technology could transform the bioproduct and REE mining industries and catalyze the development of a more sustainable future.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coupling of the Electricity and Transportation Sectors - Part II: Risk Assessment

This comprehensive report explores the intricate interplay through “sector coupling” between the Transportation Sector, Energy Sector, and the critical infrastructure challenges faced by the United States. Aligned with the ambitious federal goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the report analyzes the present vulnerabilities in the fossil fuel supply chain, highlighting instances where the dependence on this industry has been susceptible to local and global disruptions. With a focus on risk assessment, this report establishes a framework to compare the fossil fuel-based transportation sector with the burgeoning electrified sector, considering the evolving technologies in electric vehicles (EVs) and the nascent charging infrastructure. This study delves into the historical reliability of fossil fuel-based transportation and identifies opportunities for strengthening sector coupling between transportation and the electric sector. Assessments of the gasoline-diesel supply chain provide insights into both opportunities and threats, offering a roadmap for creating a more reliable and resilient electrified transportation system. We modeled sectoral coupling scenarios for the current internal combustion engine (ICE)-based and future EV-dominant landscapes, leveraging qualitative sector attributes to identify relative strengths and weaknesses in Part 1 of the report. In this report (Part 2) we continue to understand the role of the electricity sector on transportation and develop a semi-quantitative methodology is employed to evaluate and compare the risks associated with the fossil fueled and electric transportation sector during emergency scenarios, drawing from real-world events like hurricanes and geopolitical disruptions. Different operational scenarios for the fossil fuel and electrified sectors have been developed to understand the risks associated with them. This report concludes with recommendations for the architectural designs of electric charging infrastructure, underlining the need for informed decisions in the transition towards a sustainable and resilient transportation future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

UNrealized Critical Lanthanide Extraction from Sea Algae Mining (UNCLE SAM)

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Mosaic

The LandScan program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), continues to deliver the most accurate and up to date global, high resolution gridded population data. Additionally, the latest advancements in the LandScan HD methodology led to reduced latency in development of rapid updates for geopolitical events. With momentum towards reporting more up to date population estimates, feedback from the user community expressed interest in reporting population estimates in ranges - whether to express a level of uncertainty or confirm to leadership and stakeholders the modeled data are estimates. Building upon the need to understand uncertainty or confidence in the modeled data and report ranges at the global scale, LandScan Mosaic was developed. LandScan Mosaic represents the next generation of high-resolution population modeling, building upon the established success of previous LandScan HD iterations. While LandScan HD employed a deterministic big data fusion approach, LandScan Mosaic enhances this methodology by integrating advanced machine learning techniques to impute missing, yet crucial, population model parameters. This advancement allows for probabilistic modeling of building occupancy and population distribution, incorporating uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo sampling methods. By combining big data fusion with machine learning-driven imputation and stochastic modeling, LandScan Mosaic provides a more comprehensive and robust representation of population dynamics. LandScan Mosaic will be following the in the footsteps of its longstanding counterpart LandScan Global and releasing a global gridded population raster, at the 3-arcsecond resolution. This technical report documents the current stage of development of LandScan Mosaic, detailing the methodologies and data sources behind the modeling. Stakeholders are encouraged to use this document as an authoritative reference for insight into Mosaic’s data development processes. However, readers should note that LandScan Mosaic remains in a late-stage research and development phase, and methodologies and data presented here are subject to refinements ahead of the anticipated global release in Summer 2025. Feedback and inquiries from users and stakeholders are welcomed as we continue to refine and enhance this important population resource.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗