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Association of Mesoscale Auroral Structures and Breakups With Energetic Particle Injections at Geosynchronous Orbit

Geomagnetic substorms are associated with characteristic energetic particle injection signatures at geosynchronous orbit that are often dispersionless in both electrons and ions near the magnetic local time sector of auroral onset locations and are dispersed farther away from this region. Although the precise mechanism responsible for the coherent injection signatures at geosynchronous orbit have been the topic on considerable ongoing debate for decades, recent work on bursty bulk flows (BBFs) in the tail have led to the hypothesis that they may be the result of multiple, overlapping flow bursts penetrating into the inner magnetosphere from more distant downtail reconnection sites. Since auroral streamers are thought to be ionospheric signatures of BBFs in the tail, they can be used as proxies for testing this hypothesis. Using high resolution auroral imagery from the POLAR/VIS instrument combined with multi-spacecraft observations of energetic particle injections at geosynchronous orbit, we examine the association of mesoscale auroral structures with particle injection signatures over many hours during the 9 November 1998 storm. We find that the explosive types of auroral activations, such as pseudo-breakups and substorm onset breakups, are associated with the more intense and well-defined dispersed injection signatures, while intervals of isolated streamer activity appear to be associated with smaller dispersed “injectionlet” signatures. Furthermore, intervals of sustained, intense, and late expansion phase/recovery phase streamer activity appear to be associated with sustained elevated dispersed particle fluxes. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that it is the overlapping effects of sustained, intense multiple flow bursts penetrating toward the Earth that result in classical substorm particle injection signatures at geosynchronous orbit. However, it is also suggested that torches/omega-band tongues are the prime fate of braking isolated flow bursts (streamers) rather than the development of breakups, bulges, and substorm current wedge formation. A statistical analysis is presented showing that 93% of the observed torches evolved from streamers, 93% of streamers arriving in the equatorward regions of the bulge led to torches, 10.5% of such streamers led to breakups (either pseudo-breakups or substorm onsets), and only 3.5% of such streamers led to substorm onsets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Pitch Angle Dependence of Electron and Ion Flux Changes During Local Magnetic Dipolarization Inside Geosynchronous Orbit

In this study we have statistically examined flux changes of 1–1,000-keV electrons, and hydrogen, helium, and oxygen ions during local magnetic dipolarization inside geosynchronous orbit, with a focus on their pitch angle dependence. Here, using 144 dipolarization events that were selected in a previous study with Van Allen Probes observations in 2012–2016, we have performed a superposed epoch analysis of differential flux changes after the dipolarization onset for each species. On average the electron flux increases primarily around pitch angle (α) = 90° at >80 keV and almost isotropically at 10–50 keV. The electron flux at <5 keV increases at α = 0° and 180° but slightly decreases (or remains unchanged) at α = 90°. On the other hand, the ion flux at >80 keV increases around α = 90°, while at <30 keV it decreases nearly independent of pitch angle. Only the low-energy (<5 keV) helium and oxygen ion flux changes indicate a strong field-aligned enhancement, which could be attributed to their outflows from the topside ionosphere. After the dipolarization onset, >5-keV electron and >30-keV ion fluxes exhibit a perpendicular anisotropy, which is most pronounced for 50–200-keV electrons. Both distributions become more isotropic with decreasing energy. A noticeable field-aligned anisotropy is seen for <5-keV ion fluxes. These statistical pitch angle-dependent electron and ion properties during dipolarizations may be explained by combining various processes, including adiabatic acceleration and/or transport, wave-particle interactions, and ion outflow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prediction of the Wave Normal Angle of Proton‐Band EMIC Waves Near Geosynchronous Orbit

We investigate how the wave normal angle (WNA) and polarization of proton-band electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves change as they travel from their source to Earth. This paper marks a significant milestone as the first full-wave simulation of proton-band EMIC waves reflecting from the ionosphere. Our findings show that the WNA can change rapidly during propagation, primarily due to plasma inhomogeneities, such as variations in the Alfvén speed. The wave polarization is strongly related to the WNA, consistent with theory. Newly generated EMIC waves near the equator propagate with a WNA of 0° , then the WNA gradually shifts to 90° as they move toward Earth. In contrast, reflecting waves having 90° of WNA at Earth maintain a relatively larger WNA even near the magnetic equator. As a result, only the newly generated waves close to the source, where the magnetic latitude is less than approximately 20° , show left-handed polarization, while linear polarization remains dominant throughout the rest of the propagation.

EMIC wave↗

Radiation Belt Response to Fast Reverse Shock at Geosynchronous Orbit

Fast reverse shocks (FRSs) cause the magnetosphere to expand, by contrast to the well-known compressions caused by the impact of fast forward shocks (FFS). Usually, FFSs are more geoeffective than FRSs, and consequently the inner magnetosphere dynamic responses to both shock types can be quite different. In this study, we investigate for the first time the radiation belt response to an FRS impact using multi-satellite observations and numerical simulations. Spacecraft on the dayside observed decreases in magnetic field strength and energetic (~40–475 keV) particle fluxes. Timing analysis shows that the magnetic field signature propagated from the dayside to the nightside magnetosphere. Particles with different energies vary simultaneously at each spacecraft, implying a non-dispersive particle response to the shock. Spacecraft located at lower L-shells did not record any significant signatures. The observations indicate a local time dependence of the response associated with the shock inclination, with the clearest signatures being observed in the dusk–midnight sector. Simulations underestimate the amplitude of the magnetic field variations observed on the nightside. The observed decreases in the electron intensities result from a combination of radial gradient and adiabatic effects. The radial gradients in the spectral index appear to be the dominant contributor to the observed variations of electrons seen on the dayside (near noon and dusk) and on the nightside (near midnight). This work shows that even an FRS can affect the radiation belts significantly and provides an opportunity to understand their dynamic response to a sudden expansion of the magnetosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Space environment considerations for perovskite solar cell operations: A review

Designing new technology for extraterrestrial applications certainly presents unique challenges. The environmental stressors perovskite-based photovoltaics must overcome will vary with the environment in which they are deployed. One must consider mission requirements when designing photovoltaic devices and packaging. Different space "theaters" can have dramatically different stressors needing consideration for designing panels for solar power generation. Here, in this article, we review the relevant space environmental conditions that must be considered when designing perovskite-based photovoltaic devices for implementation in space. We specifically consider thermal, radiation, gaseous, weather, and other phenomena most relevant to photovoltaic operation for specific theaters such as Low Earth Orbit, Geosynchronous Orbit, Lunar surface, Mars (orbit and surface), and interplanetary exploration pathways.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Radio Frequency Sensor: Very High Frequency Radio Frequency Lightning Detection in Geostationary Orbit

Abstract The Radio Frequency Sensor (RFS), a new radio frequency lightning detector, was launched into geosynchronous orbit in December 2021, and first collected data in January 2022. RFS is a specialized software‐defined radio receiver that detects, records, and reports impulsive broadband radio‐frequency (RF) signatures from lightning in the very high frequency (VHF; 30–300 MHz) range. Its vantage point from a Western hemisphere geosynchronous orbit provides unique opportunities to study evolution of RF lightning signatures over the durations of thunderstorms over the Americas and Pacific Ocean. Its overlapping view with the Geostationary Lightning Mappers (GOES‐16 & 17) enables additional comparisons between the sources of optical emissions and associated VHF emissions that were not possible with previous sensors. We find that RFS preferentially detects bright VHF signals called transionospheric pulse pairs (trans‐ionospheric pulse pairs (TIPPs)). It is estimated that more than 85% of the RFS‐detected lightning events are TIPPs. This paper presents initial results from the first year and a half of on‐orbit operation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

One Million Open-source Cislunar Orbits

Cislunar space, encompassing the region from geosynchronous orbit to beyond the Moon, is poised to become a cornerstone for future exploration, scientific discovery, and national security. Missions in this region, spanning durations from weeks to decades, require robust infrastructure and reliable transit capabilities. The complex gravitational influences of the Moon, Sun, and planets, along with thermal radiation from Earth and the Sun, lead to significant trajectory deviations, resulting in kilometer-scale errors within days. Leveraging the high-performance computing resources at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), we have simulated one million high-fidelity cislunar trajectories, now publicly available via LLNL’s Green Data Oasis and the Unified Data Library. Generated using the open-source Space Situational Awareness Python package, these trajectories match the precision of commercial tools such as AGI’s Systems Tool Kit and NASA’s General Mission Analysis Tool. This data set is a valuable resource for reference, statistical analysis of cislunar orbit populations, and training machine learning models for rapid orbit classification with minimal observational input. Preliminary analysis reveals stable bands in Keplerian element space, particularly around five geosynchronous radii across a range of inclinations and eccentricities. Beyond this threshold, the Moon’s influence disrupts most unassisted orbits, though co-orbiting L4/L5 Lunar Trojans persist throughout the six-year simulation.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Predicting Cislunar Orbit Lifetimes from Initial Orbital Elements

The volume of space between Earth’s geosynchronous orbit out to the Moon’s sphere of influence, including the lunar Lagrange points, is crucial for the successful planning and execution of space missions, but not fully understood dynamically. This region is a part of cislunar space. Trajectories through cislunar space are influenced by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and other Solar System planets leading to typically unpredictable and chaotic trajectory behavior. It is therefore difficult to predict the stability of an trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial conditions or orbital elements. We simulate one million cislunar orbits to train a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the trajectories and orbits into families based on how long they remain stable within the cislunar space. Using the trained SOM, we are able to predict the stable lifetime of a trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial orbital elements to within an accuracy of 10% for 8% of simulated trajectories and within 50% for 43% of the simulated trajectories. Clustering in the SOM suggests that a variety of trajectory morphologies have similar lifetimes. Once trained, the SOM can predict the stable lifetime of a given cislunar trajectory within milliseconds. The methods developed in this work enable the rapid identification of stable cislunar orbits and trajectories that could be used for future space exploration. Moreover, the developed SOM method can generate orbital and trajectory lifetime estimates from minimal observational data, such as a single two line element, making it useful for early warning systems and large-scale sensor network operations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PreMevE‐MEO: Predicting Ultra‐Relativistic Electrons Using Observations From GPS Satellites

Abstract Ultra‐relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron‐volt (MeV) pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics, and thus specifying those highly energetic electrons has a significant meaning to space weather communities. Here we report the latest progress in developing our predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, primarily driven by electron measurements made along medium‐Earth‐orbits (MEO), is called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)‐MEO model that nowcasts ultra‐relativistic electron flux distributions across the whole outer belt. Model inputs include >2 MeV electron fluxes observed in MEOs by a fleet of GPS satellites as well as electrons measured by one Los Alamos satellite in the geosynchronous orbit. We developed an innovative Sparse Multi‐Inputs Latent Ensemble NETwork (SmileNet) which combines convolutional neural networks with transformers, and we used long‐term in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission to train, validate, optimize, and test the model. It is shown that PreMevE‐MEO can provide hourly nowcasts with high model performance efficiency and high correlation with observations. This prototype PreMevE‐MEO model demonstrates the feasibility of making high‐fidelity predictions driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure in MEO, thus has great potential of growing into an invaluable space weather operational warning tool.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Calibration of the Falcon Solid-state Energetic Electron Detector (SEED)

The Falcon Solid-state Energetic Electron Detector (FalconSEED) is an energetic charged particle sensor that has been developed and tested at the United States Air Force Academy in an effort to monitor electron flux across the energy range of 14 to 145 keV in geosynchronous orbit. This sensor has been developed to complement ongoing efforts by the Air Force Research Laboratory to advance a comprehensive space environment sensor suite, Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor (CEASE3), for anomaly resolution. In addition, FalconSEED is intended to demonstrate the ability to operate a radiation sensor based on predominantly commercial off the shelf components in the geosynchronous environment. This paper describes the design, development, and calibration of FalconSEED. The electron energy spectrum of interest for the FalconSEED sensor is 14 to 145 keV, and is intended to supplement data acquired from the CEASE3 instrument for anomaly resolution. The calibrations at the Space Atmospheric Research Center at the United States Air Force Academy and Kirtland Air Force Base were used to first establish the conversion between histogram bin number and deposited energy in the sensor, and second have been used to determine the geometric factor as a function of energy. The FalconSEED will be integrated as a science payload on the Space Test Program Satellite-6 which also includes the first flight of the CEASE3 instrument and is scheduled to launch in 2021.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Modeling the Effects of Drift Orbit Bifurcation on Radiation Belt Electrons

Abstract Drift orbit bifurcation (DOB) has been suggested to play a major role in the loss and transport of radiation belt electrons since it violates the second adiabatic invariants of particles and makes the third invariant undefined. Results from our guiding‐center test particle simulations using the Tsyganenko‐1989c magnetic field model show that the DOB could affect a broad region of the outer radiation belt, which can penetrate inside the geosynchronous orbit at Kp ≥ 3, and its effects are more significant further away from the Earth, at a higher Kp and for higher electron energies. Specifically, the short‐term simulation results after one electron drift show both traditional and nontraditional DOB transport of electrons, with the nontraditional DOB, caused by a third minimum of the magnetic field strength near the equator, reported here for the first time. Moreover, our results show large ballistic jumps in the second invariant and radial distance for electrons at high equatorial pitch angles after one drift. In addition, long‐term DOB transport coefficients of electrons over many drifts are calculated based on our simulation results. We find that the pitch angle and radial diffusion coefficients of electrons due to DOB could be comparable to or even larger than those caused by electron interactions with chorus and Ultra‐Low‐Frequency waves, respectively. In sum, our results demonstrate that DOB could cause effective loss and transport of radiation belt electrons even in the absence of waves.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

PreMevE Update: Forecasting Ultra-Relativistic Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt

Energetic electrons inside Earth's Van Allen belts pose a major radiation threat to spaceborne electronics that often play vital roles in modern society. Ultra-relativistic electrons with energies greater than or equal to two megaelectron-volt (MeV) are of particular interest, and thus forecasting these ≥2 MeV electrons has a significant meaning to all space sectors. Here, we update the latest development of the predictive model for MeV electrons in the outer radiation belt. The new version, called PREdictive MEV Electron (PreMevE)-2E, forecasts ultra-relativistic electron flux distributions across the outer belt, with no need for in situ measurements of the trapped MeV electron population except at the geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Model inputs include precipitating electrons observed in low-Earthorbits by NOAA satellites, upstream solar wind speeds and densities from solar wind monitors, as well as ultra-relativistic electrons measured by one Los Alamos GEO satellite. We evaluated 32 supervised machine learning models that fall into four different classes of linear and neural network architectures, and successfully tested ensemble forecasting by using groups of top-performing models. All models are individually trained, validated, and tested by in situ electron data from NASA's Van Allen Probes mission. It is shown that the final ensemble model outperforms individual models at most L-shells, and this PreMevE-2E model can provide 25-h (~1-day) and 50-h (~2-day) forecasts with high mean performance efficiency and correlation values. Our results also suggest that this new model is dominated by nonlinear components at L-shells <~4 for ultra-relativistic electrons, different from the dominance of linear components for 1 MeV electrons as previously discovered.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Estimating Electron Temperature and Density Using Van Allen Probe Data: Typical Behavior of Energetic Electrons in the Inner Magnetosphere

Abstract The Earth's inner magnetosphere contains multiple electron populations influenced by different factors. The cold electrons of the plasmasphere, warm plasma that contributes to the ring current, and the relativistic plasma of the radiation belts often seem to behave independently. Using omni‐directional flux and energy measurements from the HOPE and Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer instruments aboard the Van Allen Probes, we provide a detailed density and temperature description of the inner magnetosphere, offering a comprehensive statistical analysis of the entire Van Allen Probe era. While number density and temperature data at geosynchronous orbit are available, this study focuses on the warm plasma in the inner magnetosphere . Values of density and temperature are extracted by fitting energy and phase space density to obtain the distribution function. The fitted distributions are related to the zeroth and second moments to estimate the number density and temperature. Analysis has indicated that a two Maxwellian fit is sufficient over a wide range of and that there are two independent plasma populations. The more energetic population has a median number density of approximately and a temperature of around 130 keV, with a temperature peak observed between L * = 4 and L * = 4.5. This population is relatively uniform in magnetic local time (MLT). In contrast, the less energetic warm electron population has a median number density of about and a temperature of 7.4 keV. Strong statistical trends in density and temperature across both L * and MLT are presented, along with potential sources driving these variations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document For PreMevE 2.0 Model

Man-made satellites operating in medium- and high-altitude Earth orbits are continuously exposed to hazardous space radiation originated from different sources. Among them, one major contributor is the relativistic electron population—with kinetic energies comparable to or larger than their rest energy of 0.511 Megaelectron-volt (MeV)—trapped inside Earth’s outer Van Allen belt. Owing to their high penetration capability, these MeV electrons are difficult to be fully stopped by normal shielding. Particularly, during MeV electron events when electron intensities across the outer belt are greatly elevated to sustaining high levels—up to 10 3 - 10 4 times as observed in the geosynchronous (GEO) orbit and low-Earth-orbits (LEOs), space-borne electronic systems with inadequate hardening are susceptible to deep-dielectric charging and discharging phenomenon caused by those electrons, and thus may suffer severe damages or even stop functioning. Therefore, protecting critical space infrastructures from harsh space weather conditions– including MeV electron events – has high priority for many space sectors, such as the aerospace industry, service providers and government agencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Possible routes to a strong science case for a joint CLEoPATRA-Roman microlensing survey

The Contemporaneous LEnsing Parallax and Autonomous TRansient Array (CLEoPATRA) is a mis sion concept for a space-based microlensing survey, proposed to enhance science for the Roman Space Telescope (RST) microlensing survey. From CLEoPATRA’s planned vantage point in geosynchronous equatorial orbit (GEO), it will observe microlensing events simultaneously and from a different point of view to RST at L2. This joint L2-GEO observation baseline gives a projected angular separation of order the size of the characteristic angular lensing scale of Free-Floating-Planets (FFPs) in the Galaxy, making it powerful for constraining FFP properties. We find that a strong science case will demonstrate which parts of the FFP parameter space a joint RST-CLEoPATRA survey will give lead ing lens constraints compared with competing ground- and space- based RST observatory companions (e.g., PRIME, Euclid). Both the simulations and framework that connect telescope capabilities to physical constraints already exist for RST FFPs and can be used to demonstrate the power of joint RST-CLEoPATRA survey, with the addition of a simulated CLEoPATRA event blending distribution. Population-level FFP constraints could also be calculated by adapting ongoing black hole microlensing research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. We also find that considering CLEoPATRA as a third space-based observatory (in addition to RST and Euclid/PRIME), which will break microlensing degeneracies leading to unambiguous FFP constraints, is worth investigating as part of a science case. Finally, we highlight possible auxiliary CLEoPATRA science cases including relieving tension between the RST Core Community Surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Integrating LEO and GEO Observations: Toward Optimal Summertime Satellite Precipitation Retrieval

Abstract Reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for understanding the Earth’s hydrological cycle. Precipitation estimation over land and coastal regions is necessary for addressing the high degree of spatial heterogeneity of water availability and demand, and for resolving the extremes that modulate and amplify hazards such as flooding and landslides. Advancements in computation power along with unique high spatiotemporal and spectral resolution data streams from passive meteorological sensors aboard geosynchronous Earth-orbiting (GEO) and low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites offer exciting opportunities to retrieve information about surface precipitation phenomena using data-driven machine learning techniques. In this study, the capabilities of U-Net–like architecture are investigated to map instantaneous, summertime surface precipitation intensity at the spatial resolution of 2 km. The calibrated brightness temperature products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiometer are combined with multispectral images (visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands) from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R satellites as main inputs to the U-Net–like precipitation algorithm. Total precipitable water and 2-m temperature from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are also used as auxiliary inputs to the model. The results show that the U-Net–like algorithm can capture fine-scale patterns and intensity of surface precipitation at high spatial resolution over stratiform and convective precipitation regimes. The evaluations reveal the potential of extracting relevant, high spatial features over complex surface types such as mountainous regions and coastlines. The algorithm allows users to interpret the inputs’ importance and can serve as a starting point for further exploration of precipitation systems within the field of hydrometeorology.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Open Benchmark of One Million High-Fidelity Cislunar Trajectories

Cislunar space spans from geosynchronous altitudes to beyond the Moon and will underpin future exploration, science, and security operations. We describe and release an open dataset of one million numerically propagated cislunar trajectories generated with the open-source Space Situational Awareness Python package (SSAPy). The model includes high-degree Earth/Moon gravity, solar gravity, and Earth/Sun radiation pressure; other planetary gravities are omitted by design for computational efficiency. Initial conditions uniformly sample commonly used osculating-element ranges, and each trajectory is propagated for up to six years under a single, fixed start epoch. The dataset is intended as a reusable benchmark for method development (e.g., space domain awareness, navigation, and machine-learning pipelines), a reference library for statistical studies of orbit families, and a starting point for community-driven extensions (e.g., alternative epochs). We report empirically observed stability trends (e.g., a band near ~5 GEO and persistence of some co-orbital classes including L4/L5 librators) as dataset descriptors rather than new dynamical results. The chief contribution is the scale, fidelity, organization (CSV/HDF5 with full state time series and metadata), and open availability, which together lower the barrier to comparative and data-driven studies in the cislunar regime.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗