Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “glaciers ice sheets”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Entrainment, transport and concentration of meteorites in polar ice sheets

Glaciers and ice sheets act as slow-moving conveyancing systems for material added to both their upper and lower surfaces. Because the transit time for most materials is extremely long the ice acts as a major global storage facility. The effects of horizontal and vertical motions on the flow patterns of Antarctic ice sheets are summarized. The determination of the source areas of meteorites and their transport paths is a problem of central importance since it relates not only directly to concentration mechanisms but also to the wider issues in glaciology and meteorites. The ice and snow into which a meteorite falls, and which moves with it to the concentration area, encodes information about the infall area. The principle environmental conditions being former elevation, temperature (also related to elevation), and age of the ice. This encoded information could be used to identify the infall area.

Drewry, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Recent Changes in High-Latitude Glaciers, Ice Caps, and Ice Sheets

The glaciers and ice sheets of the world contain enough ice to raise sea level by approximately 70 meters if they were to disappear entirely, and most of this ice is located in the climatically sensitive polar regions. Fortunately changes of this magnitude would probably take many thousands of years to occur, but recent discoveries indicate that these ice masses are responding to changes in today s climate more rapidly than previously thought. These responses are likely to be of great societal significance, primarily in terms of their implications for sea level, but also in terms of how their discharge of freshwater, through melting or calving, may impact ocean circulation. For millions of years, oceans have risen and fallen as the Earth has warmed and cooled, and ice on land has shrunk and grown. Today is no different in that respect, as sea levels have been rising at a rate of nearly 2 m per year during the last century (Miller and Douglas 2004), and 3 mm/yr in the last 12 years (Leuliette et al. 2004). What is different today, however, is that tens - perhaps hundreds - of millions of people live in coastal areas that are vulnerable to changes in sea level. Rising seas erode beaches, increase flood potential, and reduce the ability of barrier islands and coastal wetlands to mitigate the effects of major storms and hurricanes. The costs associated with a one-meter rise in sea level are estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of dollars in the United States alone. The worldwide costs in human terms would be far greater as some vulnerable low-lying coastal regions would become inundated, especially in poorer nations that do not have the resources to deal with such changes. Such considerations are particularly important in light of the fact that a one meter sea level rise is not significantly outside the 0.09 to 0.88 range of predictions for this century (IPCC 2001), and rises of this magnitude have occurred in the past in as little as 20 years (Fairbanks 1989). While the expansion of the warming oceans is estimated to be about a third of recent sea level rise, (Miller and Douglas 2004) the greatest potential for significantly increasing sea level lies in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. For different reasons, each exhibits characteristics that suggest they are potentially unstable. In Antarctica, large portions of the ice cover rest on a soft bed that lies below sea level, making it vulnerable to runaway retreat. The Greenland ice sheet experiences considerable melt, which has the potential to rapidly accelerate the flow of ice toward the sea. While smaller ice masses, such as the Alaskan Glaciers and the Canadian ice caps, do not have anywhere near the same potential to impact sea level as the vast ice sheets do, many are melting rapidly, posing a significant near-term threat.

Abdalati, Waleed↗
NASA NTRS2007

Radar Interferometer for Topographic Mapping of Glaciers and Ice Sheets

A report discusses Ka-band (35-GHz) radar for mapping the surface topography of glaciers and ice sheets at high spatial resolution and high vertical accuracy, independent of cloud cover, with a swath-width of 70 km. The system is a single- pass, single-platform interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) with an 8-mm wavelength, which minimizes snow penetration while remaining relatively impervious to atmospheric attenuation. As exhibited by the lower frequency SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) AirSAR and GeoSAR systems, an InSAR measures topography using two antennas separated by a baseline in the cross-track direction, to view the same region on the ground. The interferometric combination of data received allows the system to resolve the pathlength difference from the illuminated area to the antennas to a fraction of a wavelength. From the interferometric phase, the height of the target area can be estimated. This means an InSAR system is capable of providing not only the position of each image point in along-track and slant range as with a traditional SAR but also the height of that point through interferometry. Although the evolution of InSAR to a millimeter-wave center frequency maximizes the interferometric accuracy from a given baseline length, the high frequency also creates a fundamental problem of swath coverage versus signal-to-noise ratio. While the length of SAR antennas is typically fixed by mass and stowage or deployment constraints, the width is constrained by the desired illuminated swath width. As the across-track beam width which sets the swath size is proportional to the wavelength, a fixed swath size equates to a smaller antenna as the frequency is increased. This loss of antenna size reduces the two-way antenna gain to the second power, drastically reducing the signal-to-noise ratio of the SAR system. This fundamental constraint of high-frequency SAR systems is addressed by applying digital beam-forming (DBF) techniques to synthesize multiple simultaneous receive beams in elevation while maintaining a broad transmit illumination. Through this technique, a high antenna gain on receive is preserved, thereby reducing the required transmit power and thus enabling high-frequency SARs and high-precision InSAR from a single spacecraft.

Moller, Delwyn K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Global Fingerprint of Modern Ice-Mass Loss on 3-D Crustal Motion

Crustal motion generated by rapid ice-mass loss from Earth's glaciers and ice sheets has previously been considered in Global Navigational Satellite System (GNSS) analyses and numerical models across regions of ice retreat. However, the fingerprint of ice-mass loss is not limited to glaciated areas, but is characterized by a global pattern of 3-D crustal deformation. We compute “far-field” vertical and horizontal deformation rates that occurred in response to early 21st century mass flux from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets, global glaciers and ice caps, and associated ocean loading. We demonstrate that mass changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet and high latitude glacier systems each generated average crustal motion of 0.1–0.4 mm/yr across much of the Northern Hemisphere, with significant year-to-year variability in magnitude and direction. Horizontal motions associated with ice-mass loss exceed vertical rates in many far-field areas, and both should be considered in future analysis of GNSS measurements.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Rapid Viscoelastic Deformation Slows Marine Ice Sheet Instability at Pine Island Glacier

The ice sheets of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) are vulnerable to the marine ice sheet instability (MISI), which could cause irreversible collapse and raise sea levels by over a meter. The uncertain timing and scale of this collapse depend on the complex interaction between ice, ocean, and bedrock dynamics. The mantle beneath the ASE is likely less viscous (~10 18 Pa s) than the Earth's average mantle (~10 21 Pa s). In this paper we show that an effective equilibrium between Pine Island Glacier's retreat and the response of a weak viscoelastic mantle can reduce ice mass lost by almost 30% over 150 years. Other components of solid Earth response—purely elastic deformations and geoid perturbations—provide less stability than the viscoelastic response alone. Uncertainties in mantle rheology, topography, and basal melt affect how much stability we expect, if any. Our study indicates the importance of considering viscoelastic uplift during the rapid retreat associated with MISI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Recent Ice Sheet and Glacier Elevation Changes in Greenland from Aircraft Laser Altimetry

The Arctic Ice Mapping group (Project AIM) at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Wallops Flight Facility has been conducting systematic topographic surveys of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) since 1993, using scanning airborne laser altimeters combined with Global Positioning System (UPS) technology. Earlier surveys showed the ice sheet above 2000-rn elevation to be in balance, but with localized regions of thickening or thinning. Thinning predominates at lower elevations and thinning rates have recently increased, resulting in a negative mass balance for the entire ice sheet. Recently, critical segments of near-coastal flight lines in Greenland were resurveyed. Results from the new data will be presented.

Krabill, William B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Fiber Optic System for the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) Instrument

The Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) Instrument has been in integration and testing over the past 18 months in preparation for the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite - 2 (ICESat-2) Mission, scheduled to launch in 2017. ICESat-2 is the follow on to ICESat which launched in 2003 and operated until 2009. ATLAS will measure the elevation of ice sheets, glaciers and sea ice or the "cryosphere" (as well as terrain) to provide data for assessing the earth's global climate changes. Where ICESat's instrument, the Geo-Science Laser Altimeter (GLAS) used a single beam measured with a 70 m spot on the ground and a distance between spots of 170 m, ATLAS will measure a spot size of 10 m with a spacing of 70 cm using six beams to measure terrain height changes as small as 4 mm. The ATLAS pulsed transmission system consists of two lasers operating at 532 nm with transmitter optics for beam steering, a diffractive optical element that splits the signal into 6 separate beams, receivers for start pulse detection and a wavelength tracking system. The optical receiver telescope system consists of optics that focus all six beams into optical fibers that feed a filter system that transmits the signal via fiber assemblies to the detectors. Also included on the instrument is a system that calibrates the alignment of the transmitted pulses to the receiver optics for precise signal capture. The larger electro optical subsystems for transmission, calibration, and signal receive, stay aligned and transmitting sufficiently due to the optical fiber system that links them together. The robust design of the fiber optic system, consisting of a variety of multi fiber arrays and simplex assemblies with multiple fiber core sizes and types, will enable the system to maintain consistent critical alignments for the entire life of the mission. Some of the development approaches used to meet the challenging optical system requirements for ATLAS are discussed here.

global climate changes↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deglaciation of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets interrupted by glacier advance during abrupt coolings

Understanding patterns of ice-sheet deglaciation is key for predicting the rate of future ice-sheet melt, yet the processes underlying deglaciation remain elusive. The early Holocene (11.7 ka to 8.2 ka; Greenlandian Stage) represents the most recent period when the Laurentide and Greenland ice sheets underwent large-scale recession. Moreover, this ice-sheet recession occurred under the backdrop of regional temperatures that were similar to or warmer than today, and comparable to those projected for the upcoming centuries. Reconstructing Laurentide and Greenland ice sheet behavior during the early Holocene, and elucidating the mechanisms dictating this behavior may serve as a partial analog for future Greenland ice-sheet change in a warming world. Here, we present 123 new 10 Be surface exposure ages from two sites on Baffin Island and southwestern Greenland that constrain the behavior of the Laurentide and Greenland ice sheets, and an independent alpine glacier during the early Holocene. On Baffin Island, we focus on a unique area where moraines deposited by the Laurentide Ice Sheet rest directly adjacent to moraines deposited by an independent alpine glacier. Sixty-one 10 Be ages reveal that advances and/or stillstands of the Laurentide Ice Sheet and an alpine glacier occurred in unison around 11.8 ka, 10.3 ka, and 9.2 ka. Sixty-two 10 Be ages from southwestern Greenland indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet margin experienced re-advances or stillstands around 11.6 ka, 10.4 ka, 9.1 ka, 8.1 ka, and 7.3 ka. Our results reveal that ice sheets respond to climate perturbations on the same centennial timescale as small alpine glaciers. Further, we hypothesize that during the warming climate of the early Holocene, freshening of the North Atlantic Ocean induced by ice-sheet melt resulted in regional cooling and brief periods of ice-sheet stabilization superimposed on net glacier recession. These observations point to a negative feedback mechanism inherent to melting ice sheets in the Baffin Bay region that slows ice-sheet recession during intervals of otherwise rapid deglaciation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Land ice height-retrieval algorithm for NASA's ICESat-2 photon-counting laser altimeter

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) and its sole scientific instrument, the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS), was launched on 15 September 2018 with a primary goal of measuring changes in the surface of the Earth's land ice (glaciers and ice sheets). ATLAS is a photon-counting laser altimeter, which records the transit time of individual photons in order to reconstruct surface height along track. The ground-track pattern repeats every 91 days such that changes in ice sheet surface height can be estimated through time. In this paper, we describe the set of algorithms that have been developed for ICESat-2 to retrieve ice sheet surface height from the geolocated photons for the Land Ice Along-Track Height Product (ATL06), and demonstrate their output and performance using a synthetic dataset over various land-ice surfaces and under different cloud conditions. We show that the ATL06 algorithm is expected to perform at the level required to meet the ICESat-2 science objectives for land ice.

ICESat-2↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 Mission: A Global Geolocated Photon Product Derived from the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System

The Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite – 2 (ICESat-2) observatory was launched on 15 September 2018 to measure ice sheet and glacier elevation change, sea ice freeboard, and enable the determination of the heights of Earth’s forests. ICESat-2’s laser altimeter, the Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) uses green (532 nm) laser light and single-photon sensitive detection to measure time of flight and subsequently surface height along each of its six beams. In this paper, we describe the major components of ATLAS, including the transmitter, the receiver and the components of the timing system. We present the major components of the ICESat-2 observatory, including the Global Positioning System, star trackers and inertial measurement unit. The ICESat-2 Level 1B data product (ATL02) provides the precise photon round-trip time of flight, among other data. The ICESat-2 Level 2A data product (ATL03) combines the photon times of flight with the observatory position and attitude to determine the geodetic location (i.e. the latitude, longitude and height) of the ground bounce point of photons detected by ATLAS. The ATL03 data product is used by higher-level (Level 3A) surface-specific data products to determine glacier and ice sheet height, sea ice freeboard, vegetation canopy height, ocean surface topography, and inland water body height.

ICESat-2↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Scientific Legacy of NASA’s Operation IceBridge

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Operation IceBridge (OIB) was a 13-year (2009–2021) airborne mission to survey land and sea ice across the Arctic, Antarctic, and Alaska. Here, we review OIB’s goals, instruments, campaigns, key scientific results, and implications for future investigations of the cryosphere. OIB’s primary goal was to use airborne laser altimetry to bridge the gap in fine-resolution elevation measurements of ice from space between the conclusion of NASA’s Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat; 2003–2009) and its follow-on, ICESat-2 (launched 2018). Additional scientific requirements were intended to contextualize observed elevation changes using a multisensor suite of radar sounders, gravimeters, magnetometers, and cameras. Using 15 different aircraft, OIB conducted 968 science flights, of which 42% were repeat surveys of land ice, 42% were surveys of previously unmapped terrain across the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Arctic ice caps, and Alaskan glaciers, and 16% were surveys of sea ice. The combination of an expansive instrument suite and breadth of surveys enabled numerous fundamental advances in our understanding of the Earth’s cryosphere. For land ice, OIB dramatically improved knowledge of interannual outlet-glacier variability, ice-sheet, and outlet-glacier thicknesses, snowfall rates on ice sheets, fjord and sub-ice-shelf bathymetry, and ice-sheet hydrology. Unanticipated discoveries included a reliable method for constraining the thickness within difficult-to-sound incised troughs beneath ice sheets, the extent of the firn aquifer within the Greenland Ice Sheet, the vulnerability of many Greenland and Antarctic outlet glaciers to ocean-driven melting at their grounding zones, and the dominance of surface-melt-driven mass loss of Alaskan glaciers. For sea ice, OIB significantly advanced our understanding of spatiotemporal variability in sea ice freeboard and its snow cover, especially through combined analysis of fine-resolution altimetry, visible imagery, and snow radar measurements of the overlying snow thickness. Such analyses led to the unanticipated discovery of an interdecadal decrease in snow thickness on Arctic sea ice and numerous opportunities to validate sea ice freeboards from satellite radar altimetry. While many of its data sets have yet to be fully explored, OIB’s scientific legacy has already demonstrated the value of sustained investment in reliable airborne platforms, airborne instrument development, interagency and international collaboration, and open and rapid data access to advance our understanding of Earth’s remote polar regions and their role in the Earth system.

Joseph A. MacGregor↗
NASA NTRS2001

Rheology of Diabase: Implications for Tectonics on Venus and Mars

Two important goals of our experimental investigation of the rheological behavior of diabase rocks were: (1) to determine flow laws describing their creep behavior over wide ranges of temperature, stress and strain rate and (2) to develop an understanding of the physical mechanisms by which these rocks flow under laboratory conditions. With this basis, a primary objective then was to construct constitutive equations that can be used to extrapolate from laboratory to planetary conditions. We specifically studied the rheological properties of both natural rock samples and synthetic aggregates. The former provided constraints for geologic systems, while the latter defined the relative contributions of the constituent mineral phases and avoided the influence of glass/melt found in natural samples. In addition, partially molten samples of crustal rock composition were deformed in shear to large strains (greater than 200%) important in crustal environments. The results of this research yielded essential rheological properties essential for models of crustal deformation on terrestrial planets, specifically Venus and Mars, as well as on the geodynamical evolution of these planets. Over the past three years, we also completed our investigation of the creep behavior of water ice with applications to the glaciers, ice sheets and icy satellites. Constitutive equations were determined that describe flow over a wide ranged of stress, strain rate, grain size and temperature. In the case of ice, three creep regimes were delineate. Extrapolation demonstrates that dislocation glide and grain boundary sliding processes dominate flow in ice I under planetary conditions and that diffusion creep is not an important deformation mechanism either in the laboratory or on icy satellites. These results have already been incorporated by other investigators into models describing, for example, the thickness and stability of the ice shell on Europa and to unravel long-standing discrepancies between field observations on glaciers and laboratory results.

Kohlstedt, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Psychrophilic and Psychrotolerant Microbial Extremophiles in Polar Environments

The microbial extremophiles that inhabit the polar regions of our planet are of tremendous significance. The psychrophilic and psychrotolerant microorganisms, which inhabit all of the cold environments on Earth have important applications to Bioremediation, Medicine, Pharmaceuticals, and many other areas of Biotechnology. Until recently, most of the research on polar microorganisms was confined to studies of polar diatoms, yeast, fungi and cyanobacteria. However, within the past three decades, extensive studies have been conducted to understand the bacteria and archaea that inhabit the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice, glaciers, ice sheets, permafrost and the cryptoendolithic, cryoconite and ice-bubble environments. These investigations have resulted in the discovery of many new genera and species of anaerobic and aerobic microbial extremophiles. Exotic enzymes, cold-shock proteins and pigments produced by some of the extremophiles from polar environments have the potential to be of great benefit to Mankind. Knowledge about microbial life in the polar regions is crucial to understanding the limitations and biodiversity of life on Earth and may provide valuable clues to the Origin of Life on Earth. The discovery of viable microorganisms in ancient ice from the Fox Tunnel, Alaska and the deep Vostok Ice has shown that microorganisms can remain alive while cryopreserved in ancient ice. The psychrophilic lithoautotrophic homoacetogen isolated from the deep anoxic trough of Lake Untersee is an ideal candidate for life that might inhabit comets or the polar caps of Mars. The spontaneous release of gas from within the Anuchin Glacier above Lake Untersee may provide clues to the ice geysers that erupt from the tiger stripe regions of Saturn s moon Enceladus. The methane productivity in the lower regimes of Lake Untersee may also provide insights into possible mechanisms for the recently discovered methane releases on Mars. Since most of the other water bearing bodies of our Solar system are frozen worlds, microbial extremophiles from the Polar Regions of Earth are of great importance to Astrobiology in understanding where and how to search for evidence of life elsewhere in the Cosmos.

Hoover, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Earth observing satellite: Understanding the Earth as a system

There is now a plan for global studies which include two very large efforts. One is the International Geosphere/Biosphere Program (IGBP) sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions. The other initiative is Mission to Planet Earth, an unbrella program for doing three kinds of space missions. The major one is the Earth Observation Satellite (EOS). EOS is large polar orbiting satellites with heavy payloads. Two will be placed in orbit by NASA, one by the Japanese and one or two by ESA. The overall mission measurement objectives of EOS are summarized: (1) the global distribution of energy input to and energy output from the Earth; (2) the structure, state variables, composition, and dynamics of the atmosphere from the ground to the mesopause; (3) the physical and biological structure, state, composition, and dynamics of the land surface, including terrestrial and inland water ecosystems; (4) the rates, important sources and sinks, and key components and processes of the Earth's biogeochemical cycles; (5) the circulation, surface temperature, wind stress, sea state, and the biological activity of the oceans; (6) the extent, type, state, elevation, roughness, and dynamics of glaciers, ice sheets, snow and sea ice, and the liquid equivalent of snow in the global cryosphere; (7) the global rates, amounts, and distribution of precipitation; and (8) the dynamic motions of the Earth (geophysics) as a whole, including both rotational dynamics and the kinematic motions of the tectonic plates.

Soffen, Gerald↗
NASA NTRS2001

Superplastic Deformation of ice: Experimental Observations

Creep experiments on fine-grained ice reveal the existence of three creep regimes: (1) a dislocation creep regime; (2) a superplastic flow regime in which grain boundary sliding is an important deformation process; and (3) a basal slip creep regime in which the strain rate is limited by basal slip. Dislocation creep in ice is likely climb-limited, is characterized by a stress exponent of 4.0, and is independent of grain size. Superplastic flow is characterized by a stress exponent of 1.8 and depends inversely on grain size to the 1.4 power. Basal slip limited creep is characterized by a stress exponent of 2.4 and is independent of grain size. A fourth creep mechanism, diffusional flow, which usually occurs at very low stresses, is inaccessible at practical laboratory strain rates even for our finest grain sizes of approximately 3 micrometers. A constitutive equation based on these experimental results that includes flow laws for these four creep mechanisms is described. This equation is in excellent agreement with published laboratory creep data for coarse-grained samples at high temperatures. Superplastic flow of ice is the rate-limiting creep mechanism over a wide range of temperatures and grain sizes at stresses less than or equal to 0.1 MPa, conditions which overlap those occurring in glaciers, ice sheets, and icy planetary interiors.

Goldsby, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Review of Mariana Gosnell's 'ICE: The Nature, the History, and the Uses of an Astonishing Substance'

ICE: The Nature, the History, and the Uses of an Astonishing Substance is a recently published book by Mariana Gosnell about ice. It covers not just the ice that is readily seen, such as sea ice, lake ice, icebergs, glaciers, ice sheets, and ice cubes, but also ice in the ground, in the atmosphere, inside plants and animals, and in outer space, plus new ice forms being created in scientific laboratories. Gosnell treats the reader to a well-written, easy-going mixture of science, adventure, history, applications, science methods and controversies, and philosophy, all centered in one way or another on ice. The book is 563 pages long and is filled with fascinating anecdotes and details, such as beetles in the Canadian Rockies that can supercool to 60 C below freezing and a lake in Minnesota where each winter typically 65,000 fishing shanties are set up on the lake's ice, many with couches, beds, television sets, and bathrooms. Gosnell also includes many practical suggestions. Among them: When driving on lake ice, keep your windows open, in case your vehicle breaks through the ice and you need to make a rapid exit.

Parkinson, Claire L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗