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DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method

In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a particle’s mass, it is especially critical to estimate its global significance. The usual approach is to count the number of times a significance limit is exceeded in a collection of simulated Monte Carlo (MC) “toy experiments”. To demonstrate this conventional method for global significance, we performed simulation studies according to a recent Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) result to show its effectiveness. However, this counting method is not practical for computing large global significances. To address this problem, we developed a new “extrapolation” method to evaluate the global significance. We compared the global significance estimated by our new method with that of the conventional approach, and verified its feasibility and effectiveness. This method is also applicable for cases where only small toy MC samples are available. In this approach, the significance is calculated based on p-values, assuming symmetrical Gaussian distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A global significance evaluation method using simulated events

In High-Energy Physics experiments it is often necessary to evaluate the global statistical significance of apparent resonances observed in invariant mass spectra. One approach to determining significance is to use simulated events to find the probability of a random fluctuation in the background mimicking a real signal. As a high school summer project, we demonstrate a method with Monte Carlo simulated events to evaluate the global significance of a potential resonance with some assumptions. This method for determining significance is general and can be applied, with appropriate modification, to other resonances.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Examining Clustered MCSs and Their Precipitation Significance Over Global Land MCS Hotspots

Multiple independent mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) can occur closely in space and time, subjecting common geographic regions to multiple precipitation events over short periods. Motivated by an earlier study highlighting significant hydrological impacts of clustered MCSs in the US, we extend the analysis to seven global continental MCS hotspots using a 20‐year global MCS data set. Our findings reveal that (a) 40%–80% of MCSs occur in clusters, depending on the region; (b) clustered MCSs exhibit larger rainfall areas and higher mean areal rainfall, with the highest values observed in Argentina and India; and (c) clustered MCSs contribute increasing fractions to more extreme 24‐ and 72‐hr precipitation events across all regions. Our results underscore the critical role of clustered MCSs in driving hydrological extremes over global land regions and highlight the need to better understand how their formation mechanisms differ from non‐clustered events across the globe.

Hu, Huancui [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for resonant and nonresonant production of pairs of dijet resonances in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A search for pairs of dijet resonances with the same mass is conducted in final states with at least four jets. Results are presented separately for the case where the four jet production proceeds via an intermediate resonant state and for nonresonant production. The search uses a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$ collected by the CMS detector in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV. Model-independent limits, at 95% confidence level, are reported on the production cross section of four-jet and dijet resonances. These first LHC limits on resonant pair production of dijet resonances via high mass intermediate states are applied to a signal model of diquarks that decay into pairs of vector-like quarks, excluding diquark masses below 7.6 TeV for a particular model scenario. There are two events in the tails of the distributions, each with a four-jet mass of 8 TeV and an average dijet mass of 2 TeV, resulting in local and global significances of 3.9 and 1.6 standard deviations, respectively, if interpreted as a signal. The nonresonant search excludes pair production of top squarks with masses between 0.50 TeV to 0.77 TeV, with the exception of a small interval between 0.52 and 0.58 TeV, for supersymmetric R-parity-violating decays to quark pairs, significantly extending previous limits. Here, the most significant excess above the predicted background occurs at an average dijet mass of 0.95 TeV, for which the local and global significances are 3.6 and 2.5 standard deviations, respectively.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS1985

Methyl halide production associated with kelp

Methyl halides (MeX) are important trace constituents of the atmosphere because they, mostly MeCl, have a major impact on the atmospheric ozone layer. Also, MeCl may account for 5 pct. of the total Cl budget and MeI may have a central role in the biogeochemical cycling of iodine. High MeI concentrations were found in seawater from kelp beds and it has been suggested that MeI is produced by kelps and that MeI and MeBr along with numerous other halocarbons were released by non-kelp marine macroalgae. The objective was to determine if kelps (and other seaweeds) are sources of MeX and to assess their contribution to the estimated global source strength (EGSS) of MeX. Although the production of MeX appears to be associated with kelp, microbes involved with kelp degradation also produce MeX. Microbial MeX production may be of global significance. The microbial MeX production potential, assuming annual kelp production equals kelp degradation and 100 pct. conversion of kelp halides to MeX, is approx. 2 x the EGSS. This is not achieved but indicates that microbial production of MeX may be of global significance.

Dastoor, Minoo N.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Martian Plains Volcanism in Syria Planum and Tempe Mareotis as Analogs to the Eastern Snake River Plains, Idaho: Similarities and Possible Petrologic Contributions to Topography

Prior to the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Odyssey (MO) missions, The Syria Planum region of Mars was noted for several clusters of small (5-100 km) shield volcanoes and collapse craters, long tube and fissure-fed lava flows, and possible volcanic vents that were thought to be nearly contemporaneous with the volcanism in the Tempe- Mareotis province, which has long been known for volcanic shields and vents analogous to those of the Eastern Snake River Plains (ESRP) in Idaho. Recent MGS-based work on regional and global populations of martian small shields has revealed significant global trends in edifice attributes that are well-explained by eruption models with latitudinal variations in subsurface water/ice abundance, consistent with recent MO evidence for significant amounts of subsurface water that varies in latitude abundance s, and topographic and morphologic evidence for more geologically recent lava-ice relationships. However, while the global trends in small volcano data can be at least partially explained by volatile interactions with volcanism, some global and regional characteristics appear to be perhaps better explained by possible compositional, crystallinity or eruption style variations. This study expands the sampling of shields done in martian initial global studies for the Syria Planum and Tempe-Mareotis regions, which display a newly visible breadth and number of features in image and topography data. We compare these features to a similar range of features visible in the ESRP where both compositional and eruption style variations can quantitatively be shown to contribute to morphologic and topographic differences.

Sakimoto, S. E. H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for new heavy resonances decaying to WW, WZ, ZZ, WH, or ZH boson pairs in the all-jets final state in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

A search for new heavy resonances decaying to WW, WZ, ZZ, WH, or ZH boson pairs in the all-jets final state is presented. The analysis is based on proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS detector in 2016–2018 at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb –1 . The search is sensitive to resonances with masses between 1.3 and 6 TeV, decaying to bosons that are highly Lorentz-boosted such that each of the bosons forms a single large-radius jet. Machine learning techniques are employed to identify such jets. No significant excess over the estimated standard model background is observed. A maximum local significance of 3.6 standard deviations, corresponding to a global significance of 2.3 standard deviations, is observed at masses of 2.1 and 2.9 TeV. In a heavy vector triplet model, spin-1 Z' and W' resonances with masses below 4.8 TeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level (CL). These limits are the most stringent to date. In a bulk graviton model, spin-2 gravitons and spin-0 radions with masses below 1.4 and 2.7 TeV, respectively, are excluded at 95% CL. Production of heavy resonances through vector boson fusion is constrained with upper cross section limits at 95% CL as low as 0.1 fb.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Search for Millimeter-bright Blazars as Astrophysical Neutrino Sources

The powerful jets of blazars have been historically considered as likely sites of high-energy cosmic-ray acceleration. However, the particulars of the launched jet and the locations of leptonic and hadronic jet loading remain unclear. In the case when leptonic and hadronic particle injection occur jointly, a temporal correlation between synchrotron radiation and neutrino production is expected. We use a first catalog of millimeter wavelength (95–225 GHz) blazar light curves from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope for a time-dependent correlation with 12 yr of muon neutrino events from the IceCube South Pole Neutrino Observatory. Such millimeter emission traces activity of the bright jet base, which is often self-absorbed at lower frequencies and potentially gamma-ray opaque. We perform an analysis of the population, as well as analyses of individual, selected sources. We do not observe a significant signal from the stacked population. TXS 0506+056 is found as the most significant, individual source, though this detection is not globally significant in our analysis of selected active galactic nuclei. Our results suggest that the majority of millimeter-bright blazars are neutrino dim. In general, it is possible that many blazars have lighter, leptonic jets, or that only selected blazars provide exceptional conditions for neutrino production.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University, Chicago, IL (United↗

NASA NTRS2022

Newly Identified Climatically and Environmentally Significant High-Latitude Dust Sources

Dust particles from high latitudes have a potentially large local, regional, and global significance to climate and the environment as short-lived climate forcers, air pollutants, and nutrient sources. Identifying the locations of local dust sources and their emission, transport, and deposition processes is important for understanding the multiple impacts of high-latitude dust (HLD) on the Earth’s systems. Here, we identify, describe, and quantify the source intensity (SI) values, which show the potential of soil surfaces for dust emission scaled to values 0 to 1 concerning globally best productive sources, using the Global Sand and Dust Storms Source Base Map (G-SDS-SBM). This includes 64 HLD sources in our collection for the northern (Alaska, Canada, Denmark, Greenland, Iceland, Svalbard, Sweden, and Russia) and southern (Antarctica and Patagonia) high latitudes. Activity from most of these HLD sources shows seasonal character. It is estimated that high-latitude land areas with higher (SI ≥ 0.5), very high (SI ≥ 0.7), and the highest potential (SI ≥ 0.9) for dust emission cover > 1 670 000 km 2 , > 560 000 km 2 , and > 240 000 km 2 , respectively. In the Arctic HLD region (≥ 60◦ N), land area with SI ≥ 0.5 is 5.5 % (1 035 059 km 2 ), area with SI ≥ 0.7 is 2.3 % (440 804 km 2 ), and area with SI ≥ 0.9 is 1.1 % (208 701 km 2 ). Minimum SI values in the northern HLD region are about 3 orders of magnitude smaller, indicating that the dust sources of this region greatly depend on weather conditions. Our spatial dust source distribution analysis modeling results showed evidence supporting a northern HLD belt, defined as the area north of 50◦ N, with a “transitional HLD-source area” extending at latitudes 50–58◦ N in Eurasia and 50–55◦ N in Canada and a “cold HLD-source area” including areas north of 60◦ N in Eurasia and north of 58◦ N in Canada, with currently “no dust source” area between the HLD and low-latitude dust (LLD) dust belt, except for British Columbia. Using the global atmospheric transport model SILAM, we estimated that 1.0 % of the global dust emission originated from the high-latitude regions. About 57 % of the dust deposition in snow- and ice-covered Arctic regions was from HLD sources. In the southern HLD region, soil surface conditions are favorable for dust emission during the whole year. Climate change can cause a decrease in the duration of snow cover, retreat of glaciers, and an increase in drought, heatwave intensity, and frequency, leading to the increasing frequency of topsoil conditions favorable for dust emission, which increases the probability of dust storms. Our study provides a step forward to improve the representation of HLD in models and to monitor, quantify, and assess the environmental and climate significance of HLD.

high latitude dust↗

NASA NTRS2016

Detecting Climate Signals in Precipitation Extremes from TRMM (1998-2013) - Increasing Contrast Between Wet and Dry Extremes During the "Global Warming Hiatus"

We investigate changes in daily precipitation extremes using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data (1998-2013), which coincides with the "global warming hiatus." Results show a change in probability distribution functions of local precipitation events (LPEs) during this period consistent with previous global warming studies, indicating increasing contrast between wet and dry extremes, with more intense LPE, less moderate LPE, and more dry (no rain) days globally. Analyses for land and ocean separately reveal more complex and nuanced changes over land, characterized by a strong positive trend (+12.0% per decade, 99% confidence level (c.l.)) in frequency of extreme LPEs over the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during the wet season but a negative global trend (−6.6% per decade, 95% c.l.) during the dry season. A significant global drying trend (3.2% per decade, 99% c.l.) over land is also found during the dry season. Regions of pronounced increased dry events include western and central U.S., northeastern Asia, and Southern Europe/Mediterranean.

Precipitation↗

NASA NTRS2005

Terrestrial Ozone Depletion Due to a Milky Way Gamma-Ray Burst

Based on cosmological rates, it is probable that at least once in the last Gy the Earth has been irradiated by a gamma-ray burst in our Galaxy from within 2 kpc. Using a two-dimensional atmospheric model we have computed the effects upon the Earth's atmosphere of one such burst. A ten second burst delivering 100 kJ/sq m to the Earth results in globally averaged ozone depletion of 35%, with depletion reaching 55% at some latitudes. Significant global depletion persists for over 5 years after the burst. This depletion would have dramatic implications for life since a 50% decrease in ozone column density results in approximately three times the normal UVB flux. Widespread extinctions are likely, based on extrapolation from UVB sensitivity of modern organisms.

Thomas, Brian C.↗

NASA NTRS1995

The Global Impact of Biomass Burning: An Interview with EPA's Robert Huggett

The extent of biomass burning has increased significantly over the past 100 years because of human activities, and such burning is much more frequent and widespread than was previously believed. Biomass burning is now recognized as a significant global source of emissions, contributing as much as 40% of gross carbon dioxide and 38% of tropospheric ozone. Most of the world's burned biomass matter is from the savannas, and because two-thirds of the Earth's savannas are located in Africa, that continent is now recognized as the "burn center" of the planet. In the past few years the international scientific community has conducted field experiments using ground-based and airborne measurements in Africa, South America. and Siberia to better assess the global production of gases and particulates by biomass burning. Researchers are gathering this month in Williamsburg, VA, to discuss the results of these and other investigations at the Second Chapman Conference on Biomass Burning and Global Change, sponsored by the American Geophysical Union. The first international biomass burning conference, held in 1990, was attended by atmospheric chemists, climatologists, ecologists, forest and soil scientists, fire researchers, remote- sensins specialists, and environmental planners and managers from more than 25 countries.When we hear about biomass burning, we usually think of the burning of the worlds tropical forests for permanent land clearing. However, biomass burning serves a variety of land use changes, including the clearing of forests and savannas for agricultural and grazing use; shifting agriculture practices; the control of grass, weeds, and litter on agricultural and grazing lands; the elimination of stubble and waste on agricultural lands after the harvest; and the domestic use of biomass matter.

Sevine, Joel S.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Constraints Pb-210 and Be-7 on Wet Deposition and Transport in a Global Three-Dimensional Chemical Tracer Model Driven by Assimilated Meteorological Fields

The atmospheric distributions of the aerosol tracers Pb-210 and Be-7 are simulated with a global three-dimensional model driven by assimilated meteorological observations for 1991-1996 from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOSl). The combination of terrigenic Pb-210 and cosmogenic Be-7 provides a sensitive test of wet deposition and vertical transport in the model. Our simulation of moist transport and removal includes scavenging in wet convective updrafts (40% scavenging efficiency per kilometer of updraft), midlevel entrainment and detrainment, first-order rainout and washout from both convective anvils and large-scale precipitation, and cirrus precipitation. Observations from surface sites in specific years are compared to model results for the corresponding meteorological years, and observations from aircraft missions over the Pacific are compared to model results for the days of the flights. Initial simulation of Be-7 showed that cross-tropopause transport in the GEOSl meteorological fields is too fast by a factor of 3-4. We adjusted the stratospheric Be-7 source to correct the tropospheric simulation. Including this correction, we find that the model gives a good simulation of observed Pb-210 and Be-7 concentrations and deposition fluxes at surface sites worldwide, with no significant global bias and with significant success in reproducing the observed latitudinal and seasonal distributions. We achieve several improvements over previous models; in particular, we reproduce the observed Be-7 minimum in the tropics and show that its simulation is sensitive to rainout from convective anvils. Comparisons with aircraft observations up to 12-km altitude suggest that cirrus precipitation could be important for explaining the low concentrations in the middle and upper troposphere.

Liu, Hong-Yu↗

NASA NTRS2004

Relating Satellite-Based Contrail Detection to NWA Output

Contrail-induced cloud cover has been shown to be a significant factor in regional climate change over the United States of America. As air traffic increases, the potential for globally significant impacts also rises. To better understand and predict these potential climatic effects, it is necessary to develop models that can accurately represent contrail properties based on ambient atmospheric variables including temperature, relative humidity and winds. Several high-resolution numerical weather analyses (NWA) including the 20-km Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the University of Oklahoma Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) can provide the temperature, humidity and wind information necessary to diagnose contrail formation. One outstanding problem that must be addressed to achieve a realistic simulation of contrails is the large uncertainties in upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) in numerical weather analyses. Current numerical weather analyses tend to underestimate UTH due to large dry biases in the balloon soundings used to construct the analyses. To evaluate each of the models, we match several months of contrail properties derived from satellite and surface observations to the NWA-derived humidity, vertical velocity, wind shear and atmospheric stability. The relationships between several contrail properties (including optical depth and areal contrail coverage) and the NWA-derived statistics will be analyzed to determine under which atmospheric conditions widespread contrail outbreaks are favored.

Duda, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Variability and Extremes of Precipitation in the Global Climate as Determined by the 25-Year GEWEX/GPCP Data Set

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) 25-year precipitation data set is used to evaluate the variability and extremes on global and regional scales. The variability of precipitation year-to-year is evaluated in relation to the overall lack of a significant global trend and to climate events such as ENSO and volcanic eruptions. The validity of conclusions and limitations of the data set are checked by comparison with independent data sets (e.g., TRMM). The GPCP data set necessarily has a heterogeneous time series of input data sources, so part of the assessment described above is to test the initial results for potential influence by major data boundaries in the record. Regional trends, or inter-decadal changes, are also analyzed to determine validity and correlation with other long-term data sets related to the hydrological cycle (e.g., clouds and ocean surface fluxes). Statistics of extremes (both wet and dry) are analyzed at the monthly time scale for the 25 years. A preliminary result of increasing frequency of extreme monthly values will be a focus to determine validity. Daily values for an eight-year are also examined for variation in extremes and compared to the longer monthly-based study.

Adler, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Analysis Using Satellite Observations

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) observations are reviewed in the context of weather and climate applications. All the data sets discussed are the result of mergers of information from multiple satellites and gauges, where available. The focus of the talk is on TRMM-based 3 hr. analyses that use TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I (and other satellites) and geosynchronous IR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, 3 hr. resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January 1998-present) at the end of 2002. A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 deg latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg N-50 deg S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions and in relating weather-scale patterns to climate-scale patterns. The 3-hourly analysis is placed in the context of two research products of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The first is the 23 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis that is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant global trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the 23 year period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. Also shown is the GPCP daily, 1 deg latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present. Plans to incorporate the TRMM data and 3-hourly analysis into the GPCP products are outlined. The outcome should be an improved global analysis and climatology on monthly scales for the 23 year period and finer time scale analyses for more recent periods, including real-time 3-hourly (or finer) analyses over much of the globe.

Adler, Robert F.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for a new scalar resonance decaying to a Higgs boson and another new scalar particle in the final state with two bottom quarks and two photons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV

A search is presented for a new scalar resonance, X, decaying to a standard model Higgs boson and another new scalar particle, Y, in the final state where the Higgs boson decays to a $\text{b}\overline{\text{b} }$ pair, while the Y particle decays to a pair of photons. The search is performed in the mass range 240–1000 GeV for the resonance X, and in the mass range 70–800 GeV for the particle Y, using proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 132 fb −1 . In general, the data are found to be compatible with the standard model expectation. Observed (expected) upper limits at 95% confidence level on the product of the production cross section and the relevant branching fraction are extracted for the X → YH process, and are found to be within the range of 0.05–2.69 (0.08–1.94) fb, depending on m X and m Y . The most significant deviation from the background-only hypothesis is observed for X and Y masses of 300 and 77 GeV, respectively, with a local (global) significance of 3.33 (0.65) standard deviations.

Beyond Standard Model↗

DOE OSTI2025

Could the chemical industry mitigate rapid global cooling from a catastrophic volcanic eruption?

Abstract Estimates based on historical data place the probability of a catastrophic volcanic eruption in the next 100 years at around one in six. Large volcanic eruptions can lead to significant global cooling for 2–4 years, with potentially devastating impacts on global agriculture. In principle, the negative impacts of volcano‐induced cooling could be reduced by deliberate emission of short‐lived chemicals with high greenhouse gas intensity into the atmosphere. This article examines the physical feasibility of this concept for a wide range of short‐lived climate pollutants, using the global chemical industry for context. Deliberate emission of any known chemical species would require gigatons of material, which would have to be produced and stored far in advance of the volcanic event. The cost of this undertaking would be immense. In addition to these daunting logistical challenges, a range of other uncertainties and complications associated with this concept are discussed.

Sholl, David S. [University of Tennessee‐Oak Ridge↗