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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Large Global Significances with a New Monte Carlo Extrapolation Method

In particle physics, it is needed to evaluate the possibility that excesses of events in mass spectra are due to statistical fluctuations as quantified by the standards of local and global significances. Without prior knowledge of a particle’s mass, it is especially critical to estimate its global significance. The usual approach is to count the number of times a significance limit is exceeded in a collection of simulated Monte Carlo (MC) “toy experiments”. To demonstrate this conventional method for global significance, we performed simulation studies according to a recent Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) result to show its effectiveness. However, this counting method is not practical for computing large global significances. To address this problem, we developed a new “extrapolation” method to evaluate the global significance. We compared the global significance estimated by our new method with that of the conventional approach, and verified its feasibility and effectiveness. This method is also applicable for cases where only small toy MC samples are available. In this approach, the significance is calculated based on p-values, assuming symmetrical Gaussian distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A global significance evaluation method using simulated events

In High-Energy Physics experiments it is often necessary to evaluate the global statistical significance of apparent resonances observed in invariant mass spectra. One approach to determining significance is to use simulated events to find the probability of a random fluctuation in the background mimicking a real signal. As a high school summer project, we demonstrate a method with Monte Carlo simulated events to evaluate the global significance of a potential resonance with some assumptions. This method for determining significance is general and can be applied, with appropriate modification, to other resonances.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examining Clustered MCSs and Their Precipitation Significance Over Global Land MCS Hotspots

Multiple independent mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) can occur closely in space and time, subjecting common geographic regions to multiple precipitation events over short periods. Motivated by an earlier study highlighting significant hydrological impacts of clustered MCSs in the US, we extend the analysis to seven global continental MCS hotspots using a 20‐year global MCS data set. Our findings reveal that (a) 40%–80% of MCSs occur in clusters, depending on the region; (b) clustered MCSs exhibit larger rainfall areas and higher mean areal rainfall, with the highest values observed in Argentina and India; and (c) clustered MCSs contribute increasing fractions to more extreme 24‐ and 72‐hr precipitation events across all regions. Our results underscore the critical role of clustered MCSs in driving hydrological extremes over global land regions and highlight the need to better understand how their formation mechanisms differ from non‐clustered events across the globe.

Hu, Huancui [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for resonant and nonresonant production of pairs of dijet resonances in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV

A search for pairs of dijet resonances with the same mass is conducted in final states with at least four jets. Results are presented separately for the case where the four jet production proceeds via an intermediate resonant state and for nonresonant production. The search uses a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$ collected by the CMS detector in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV. Model-independent limits, at 95% confidence level, are reported on the production cross section of four-jet and dijet resonances. These first LHC limits on resonant pair production of dijet resonances via high mass intermediate states are applied to a signal model of diquarks that decay into pairs of vector-like quarks, excluding diquark masses below 7.6 TeV for a particular model scenario. There are two events in the tails of the distributions, each with a four-jet mass of 8 TeV and an average dijet mass of 2 TeV, resulting in local and global significances of 3.9 and 1.6 standard deviations, respectively, if interpreted as a signal. The nonresonant search excludes pair production of top squarks with masses between 0.50 TeV to 0.77 TeV, with the exception of a small interval between 0.52 and 0.58 TeV, for supersymmetric R-parity-violating decays to quark pairs, significantly extending previous limits. Here, the most significant excess above the predicted background occurs at an average dijet mass of 0.95 TeV, for which the local and global significances are 3.6 and 2.5 standard deviations, respectively.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for new heavy resonances decaying to WW, WZ, ZZ, WH, or ZH boson pairs in the all-jets final state in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

A search for new heavy resonances decaying to WW, WZ, ZZ, WH, or ZH boson pairs in the all-jets final state is presented. The analysis is based on proton-proton collision data recorded by the CMS detector in 2016–2018 at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb –1 . The search is sensitive to resonances with masses between 1.3 and 6 TeV, decaying to bosons that are highly Lorentz-boosted such that each of the bosons forms a single large-radius jet. Machine learning techniques are employed to identify such jets. No significant excess over the estimated standard model background is observed. A maximum local significance of 3.6 standard deviations, corresponding to a global significance of 2.3 standard deviations, is observed at masses of 2.1 and 2.9 TeV. In a heavy vector triplet model, spin-1 Z' and W' resonances with masses below 4.8 TeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level (CL). These limits are the most stringent to date. In a bulk graviton model, spin-2 gravitons and spin-0 radions with masses below 1.4 and 2.7 TeV, respectively, are excluded at 95% CL. Production of heavy resonances through vector boson fusion is constrained with upper cross section limits at 95% CL as low as 0.1 fb.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Search for Millimeter-bright Blazars as Astrophysical Neutrino Sources

The powerful jets of blazars have been historically considered as likely sites of high-energy cosmic-ray acceleration. However, the particulars of the launched jet and the locations of leptonic and hadronic jet loading remain unclear. In the case when leptonic and hadronic particle injection occur jointly, a temporal correlation between synchrotron radiation and neutrino production is expected. We use a first catalog of millimeter wavelength (95–225 GHz) blazar light curves from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope for a time-dependent correlation with 12 yr of muon neutrino events from the IceCube South Pole Neutrino Observatory. Such millimeter emission traces activity of the bright jet base, which is often self-absorbed at lower frequencies and potentially gamma-ray opaque. We perform an analysis of the population, as well as analyses of individual, selected sources. We do not observe a significant signal from the stacked population. TXS 0506+056 is found as the most significant, individual source, though this detection is not globally significant in our analysis of selected active galactic nuclei. Our results suggest that the majority of millimeter-bright blazars are neutrino dim. In general, it is possible that many blazars have lighter, leptonic jets, or that only selected blazars provide exceptional conditions for neutrino production.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University, Chicago, IL (United↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for a new scalar resonance decaying to a Higgs boson and another new scalar particle in the final state with two bottom quarks and two photons in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV

A search is presented for a new scalar resonance, X, decaying to a standard model Higgs boson and another new scalar particle, Y, in the final state where the Higgs boson decays to a $\text{b}\overline{\text{b} }$ pair, while the Y particle decays to a pair of photons. The search is performed in the mass range 240–1000 GeV for the resonance X, and in the mass range 70–800 GeV for the particle Y, using proton-proton collision data collected by the CMS experiment at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 132 fb −1 . In general, the data are found to be compatible with the standard model expectation. Observed (expected) upper limits at 95% confidence level on the product of the production cross section and the relevant branching fraction are extracted for the X → YH process, and are found to be within the range of 0.05–2.69 (0.08–1.94) fb, depending on m X and m Y . The most significant deviation from the background-only hypothesis is observed for X and Y masses of 300 and 77 GeV, respectively, with a local (global) significance of 3.33 (0.65) standard deviations.

Beyond Standard Model↗
DOE OSTI2025

Could the chemical industry mitigate rapid global cooling from a catastrophic volcanic eruption?

Abstract Estimates based on historical data place the probability of a catastrophic volcanic eruption in the next 100 years at around one in six. Large volcanic eruptions can lead to significant global cooling for 2–4 years, with potentially devastating impacts on global agriculture. In principle, the negative impacts of volcano‐induced cooling could be reduced by deliberate emission of short‐lived chemicals with high greenhouse gas intensity into the atmosphere. This article examines the physical feasibility of this concept for a wide range of short‐lived climate pollutants, using the global chemical industry for context. Deliberate emission of any known chemical species would require gigatons of material, which would have to be produced and stored far in advance of the volcanic event. The cost of this undertaking would be immense. In addition to these daunting logistical challenges, a range of other uncertainties and complications associated with this concept are discussed.

Sholl, David S. [University of Tennessee‐Oak Ridge↗
DOE OSTI2022

Study of γ γ → γ ψ ( 2 S ) at Belle

Using 980 fb -1 of data at and around the Υ(nS)(n = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5) resonances collected with the Belle detector at the KEKB asymmetric-energy e+e- collider, the two-photon process γγ → γψ(2S) is studied from the threshold to 4.2 GeV for the first time. Two structures are seen in the invariant mass distribution of γψ(2S): one at M R 1 = 3922.4 ± 6.5 ± 2.0 MeV/c 2 with a width of Γ R 1 = 22 ± 17 ± 4 MeV, and another at M R 2 = 4014.3 ± 4.0 ± 1.5 MeV/c 2 with a width of Γ R 2 = 4 ± 11 ± 6 MeV; the signals are parametrized with the incoherent sum of two Breit- Wigner functions. The first structure is consistent with the X(3915) or the χ c2 (3930), and the local statistical significance is determined to be 3.1σ with the systematic uncertainties included. The second matches none of the known charmonium or charmonium like states, and its global significance is determined to be 2.8σ including the look-elsewhere effect. The production rates are Γ γγ B(R 1 → γψ(2S)) = 9.8 ± 3.6 ± 1.2 eV assuming (J PC , |λ|) = (0 ++ , 0) or 2.0 ± 0.7 ± 0.2 eV with (2 ++ , 2) for the first structure and Γ γγ B(R 2 → γψ(2S)) = 6.2 ± 2.2 ± 0.8 eV with (0 ++ , 0) or 1.2 ± 0.4 ± 0.2 eV with (2 ++ , 2) for the second one. Furthermore, the first errors are statistical and the second systematic, and λ is the helicity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Wetlands harbor lactic acid-driven chain elongators

Wetlands are globally significant carbon storage hotspots. Recent research has suggested that microbially derived metabolites may contribute to soil organic matter formation. Identifying pathways driving the formation of such metabolites is critical to understand the global impact of wetland carbon cycling. Here, we evaluate the presence of chain-elongating organisms converting two to three carbon compounds (i.e., lactic and acetic acid) to medium-chain carboxylic acids (MCCA; i.e., six-carbon caproic acid) in wetland soils. We demonstrate the enrichment of a lactic acid-driven chain-elongating community from wetland soils producing a mixture of butyric and caproic acid. The enriched community was dominated by Clostridiaceae, Ruminococcaceae, and Lachnospiraceae, three families with known chain elongators. Amplicon sequencing identified three Ruminococcaceae and one Clostridiaceae zero-radius OTU (zOTU) that were (i) present in the soil, (ii) enriched over 1% relative abundance in the bioreactor, and (iii) were closely related to known chain elongators. Moreover, close relatives of the three Ruminococcaceae zOTU were also observed in several other wetland microbiomes. From this observation, we conclude that close relatives of known chain elongators, potentially capable of lactic acid-driven MCCA production themselves, are present in wetland soils. This observation may have implications for our understanding of carbon cycling and storage in wetland ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for resonant and non-resonant Higgs boson pair production in the $b\overline{b}{\tau}^{+}{\tau}^{-}$ decay channel using 13 TeV $pp$ collision data from the ATLAS detector

A search for Higgs boson pair production in events with two $b$-jets and two $τ$-leptons is presented, using a proton–proton collision dataset with an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 collected at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. Higgs boson pairs produced non-resonantly or in the decay of a narrow scalar resonance in the mass range from 251 to 1600 GeV are targeted. Events in which at least one $τ$-lepton decays hadronically are considered, and multivariate discriminants are used to reject the backgrounds. No significant excess of events above the expected background is observed in the non-resonant search. The largest excess in the resonant search is observed at a resonance mass of 1 TeV, with a local (global) significance of 3.1$σ$ (2.0$σ$). Observed (expected) 95% confidence-level upper limits are set on the non-resonant Higgs boson pair-production cross-section at 4.7 (3.9) times the Standard Model prediction, assuming Standard Model kinematics, and on the resonant Higgs boson pair-production cross-section at between 21 and 900 fb (12 and 840 fb), depending on the mass of the narrow scalar resonance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for the doubly charmed baryon $ {\varXi}_{cc}^{+} $ in the $ {\varXi}_c^{+}{\pi}^{-}{\pi}^{+} $ final state

A search for the doubly charmed baryon $ {\varXi}_{cc}^{+} $ is performed in the $ {\varXi}_c^{+}{\pi}^{-}{\pi}^{+} $ invariant-mass spectrum, where the $ {\varXi}_c^{+} $ baryon is reconstructed in the pK - π + final state. The study uses proton-proton collision data collected with the LHCb detector at a centre- of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 5.4 fb -1 . No significant signal is observed in the invariant-mass range of 3.4–3.8 GeV/ c 2 . Upper limits are set on the ratio of branching fractions multiplied by the production cross-section with respect to the $ {\varXi}_{cc}^{++} $ →( $ {\varXi}_c^{+} $ → pK - π + ) π + decay for different $ {\varXi}_{cc}^{+} $ mass and lifetime hypotheses in the rapidity range from 2.0 to 4.5 and the transverse momentum range from 2.5 to 25 GeV/ c . The results from this search are combined with a previously published search for the $ {\varXi}_{cc}^{+} $ → $ {\varLambda}_c^{+} $ K - π + decay mode, yielding a maximum local significance of 4.0 standard deviations around the mass of 3620 MeV/ c 2 , including systematic uncertainties. Taking into account the look-elsewhere effect in the 3.5–3.7 GeV/ c 2 mass window, the combined global significance is 2.9 standard deviations including systematic uncertainties.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiwavelength analysis of Fermi -LAT blazars with high-significance periodicity: detection of a long-term rising emission in PG 1553+113

ABSTRACT Blazars display variable emission across the entire electromagnetic spectrum, with time-scales that can range from a few minutes to several years. Our recent work has shown that a sample of five blazars exhibit hints of periodicity with a global significance ${\gtrsim}2\, \sigma$ at γ-ray energies, in the range of 0.1 GeV < E < 800 GeV. In this work, we study their multiwavelength emission, covering the X-ray, ultraviolet, optical, and radio bands. We show that three of these blazars present similar periodic patterns in the optical and radio bands. Additionally, fluxes in the different bands of the five blazars are correlated, suggesting a co-spatial origin. Moreover, we detect a long-term (≈10 yr) rising trend in the light curves of PG 1553+113, and we use it to infer possible constraints on the binary black hole hypothesis.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transforming the Future of Marine Aquaculture: A Circular Economy Approach

By mid-century, society will need to significantly intensify the output of its food production system while simultaneously reducing that system’s detrimental impacts on climate, land use, freshwater resources, and biodiversity. This will require finding alternatives to carbon emissions-intensive agriculture, which provides the backbone of today’s global food production system. Here, we explore the hypothesis that marine algae-based aquaculture can help close the projected gap in society’s future nutritional demands while simultaneously improving environmental sustainability. Food production from marine algae-based aquaculture has the potential to contribute more than the total global protein demand projected for 2050, which ranges from 263.8 Mt/yr to 286.5 Mt/yr. It also offers important nutritional and environmental sustainability advantages relative to terrestrial agriculture. Marine algae can provide a better source of high-quality nutritional protein, essential amino acids, and other micronutrients relative to terrestrial plants. In addition, because marine algae do not require soil, irrigation, and the open application of fertilizer, their cultivation does not need to compete with agriculture for arable land and freshwater nor does it lead to fertilizer runoff and downstream eutrophication. Furthermore, by reducing agriculture’s demand for arable land and freshwater, marine algae-based aquaculture can reduce the pressure for deforestation, potentially leading to globally significant reductions in carbon emissions and biodiversity loss.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for a resonance decaying into a scalar particle and a Higgs boson in the final state with two bottom quarks and two photons in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for the resonant production of a heavy scalar X decaying into a Higgs boson and a new lighter scalar S, through the process X → S(→ $b\overline{b}$)H(→γγ), where the two photons are consistent with the Higgs boson decay, is performed. The search is conducted using an integrated luminosity of 140 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search is performed over the mass range 170 ≤ m X ≤ 1000 GeV and 15 ≤ m S ≤ 500 GeV. Parameterised neural networks are used to enhance the signal purity and to achieve continuous sensitivity in a domain of the (m X , m S ) plane. No significant excess above the expected background is found and 95% CL upper limits are set on the cross section times branching ratio, ranging from 39 fb to 0.09 fb. The largest deviation from the background-only expectation occurs for (m X , m S ) = (575, 200) GeV with a local (global) significance of 3.5 (2.0) standard deviations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Crop Production in the Forest Landscape Restoration Approach—Assessing the Potential Benefits of Meeting the Bonn Challenge

Existing approaches and methodologies that investigate effects of land degradation on food security vary greatly. Although a relatively rich body of literature that investigates localized experiences, geophysical, and socioeconomic drivers of land degradation, and the costs and benefits of avoiding land degradation already exists, less rigorously explored are the global effects of restoring degraded landscapes for the health of the land, the climate, and world food security. The current scale of land degradation is such that the problem can be meaningfully addressed only if local successes are upscaled and a large number of landowners and land managers implement restoration activities. Significant global efforts to address degradation exist, but studies that evaluate the global benefits of these efforts generally do not account for global market forces and the complex web of relationships that determine the effects of wide-scale restoration on production and food security. This paper provides important insights into how a full integration of crop production in restoration efforts could impact food production levels, food availability, forest carbon stocks, and Greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for a standard model-like Higgs boson in the mass range between 70 and 110 GeV in the diphoton final state in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV

The results of a search for a standard model-like Higgs boson decaying into two photons in the mass range between 70 and 110 GeV are presented. The analysis uses the data set collected by the CMS experiment in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV corresponding to integrated luminosities of 36.3 fb -1 , 41.5 fb -1 and 54.4 fb -1 during the 2016, 2017, and 2018 LHC running periods, respectively. No significant excess over the background expectation is observed and 95% confidence level upper limits are set on the product of the cross section and branching fraction for decays of an additional Higgs boson into two photons. The maximum deviation with respect to the background is seen for a mass hypothesis of 95.4 GeV with a local (global) significance of 2.9 (1.3) standard deviations. The observed upper limit ranges from 15 to 73 fb.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hemicellulose and starch citrate chitosan foam adsorbents for removal of arsenic and other heavy metals from contaminated water

Arsenic and other heavy metal contaminants in water are a significant global health threat. In this study, low-cost, sulfur-free, sustainable, water-insoluble materials with heavy metal remediation properties were produced from renewable resources such as starch, xylan, citric acid, and chitosan. Synthesized starch citrate-chitosan (SCC) foam and xylan citrate-chitosan (XCC) foam were flexible, porous, and elastic. The foams’ arsenic uptake in water was significantly greater than five different commercial metal remediating agents. The mercury and lead uptakes with the synthesized foams were similar to the performance of a commercial sulfur-based product, SorbaTech 450 (ST450). However, the cadmium and selenium uptakes were comparatively lower. The complexation of arsenic with oxygen and nitrogen of the SCC foam was shown with time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS). The XCC foam was also shown to adsorb potassium iodide (KI) at a similar rate to sodium chloride. This may be used to remediate water contaminated with radioactive materials, such as iodine 131.

Materials Science↗