SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “global trade”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Impacts of Climate Change on Global Food Trade Networks
Countries' reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries' maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks.
Gaps in global wildlife trade monitoring leave amphibians vulnerable
As the biodiversity crisis continues, we must redouble efforts to understand and curb pressures pushing species closer to extinction. One major driver is the unsustainable trade of wildlife. Trade in internationally regulated species gains the most research attention, but this only accounts for a minority of traded species and we risk failing to appreciate the scale and impacts of unregulated legal trade. Despite being legal, trade puts pressure on wild species via direct collection, introduced pathogens, and invasive species. Smaller species-rich vertebrates, such as reptiles, fish, and amphibians, may be particularly vulnerable to trading because of gaps in regulations, small distributions, and demand of novel species. Here, we combine data from five sources: online web searches in six languages, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) trade database, Law Enforcement Management Information System (LEMIS) trade inventory, IUCN assessments, and a recent literature review, to characterise the global trade in amphibians, and also map use by purpose including meat, pets, medicinal, and for research. We show that 1215 species are being traded (17% of amphibian species), almost three times previous recorded numbers, 345 are threatened, and 100 Data Deficient or unassessed. Traded species origin hotspots include South America, China, and Central Africa; sources indicate 42% of amphibians are taken from the wild. Newly described species can be rapidly traded (mean time lag of 6.5 years), including threatened and unassessed species. The scale and limited regulation of the amphibian trade, paired with the triptych of connected pressures (collection, pathogens, invasive species), warrants a re-examination of the wildlife trade status quo, application of the precautionary principle in regard to wildlife trade, and a renewed push to achieve global biodiversity goals.
Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade
Abstract International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.
Port Technical Assistance Program: A Proposed Initiative to Support U.S. Ports Through Energy Innovation
This document highlights the crucial importance of the maritime sector within the United States (U.S.) economy, serving as a key node for trade and global goods transportation. U.S. ports are currently grappling with challenges posed by rising shipping demands, the health impacts of diesel fuel reliance, and the technology adoptions of global trade partners due to increasing environmental regulations. This document proposes forming a technical assistance program, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), to help U.S. ports transition to sustainable energy solutions that not only improve environmental and community outcomes, but also enhance resilience to unexpected weather events and reduce pressure on local utilities. Coordinated by PNNL, this initiative would offer a web-based platform of consolidated resources and tools for comprehensive strategic planning and cost-benefit analysis. It also seeks to establish a collaborative network between ports and national laboratories to facilitate the sharing of best practices. The document suggests that optimizing resource allocation and providing tailored support could be achieved through strategic categorization of ports within this network, with relevant attributes and examples detailed in the report. The anticipated benefits of such a program could include increased efficiency and cost savings in port operations and the advancement of scientific innovation via alternative energy research. Also, it could enhance economic growth and competitiveness in international trade by enabling ports to meet shipping demands and develop resilient critical infrastructure through informed, long-term strategies.
Nuclear Trade Atlas 2016-2020
Building on prior work developing a Strategic Trade Atlas promoting understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, a Nuclear Trade Atlas was developed based on publicly available trade data. The Nuclear Trade Atlas examines trade patterns and trends for seventeen commodities based on a two-step assessment of the trade’s nuclear relevance: first estimating the probability that trade classified under a given Harmonized System (HS) code represents a specific commodity included in the export control lists of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and second estimating the probability that the listed, often dual-use, commodity would be indicative of nuclear use. These estimates combine to provide a measure of the likelihood trade classified under a given HS code may be nuclear relevant. By exclusively focusing on the HS codes most highly ranked by this measure, the resulting data visualizations comprising the Nuclear Trade Atlas provide those responsible for regulating or monitoring nuclear trade greater understanding of relevant global trading patterns and trends. The Atlas includes both commodity- and country-based views of nuclear trade. It is published as a book and as an interactive tool. Besides trade data, the interactive Atlas also includes data about countries’ non-proliferation commitments, allowing users to take this information into consideration while analyzing specific trade flows.
Strategic Trade Atlas 2014-2018. Country- and Commodity-Based Views
A Strategic Trade Atlas was developed to promote understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, i.e., goods of militarily strategic value, including dual-use goods. This Atlas provides macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the World Customs Organization with strategic commodities. The profiles provide information rich representations of strategic commodity-related imports and exports classified under these HS codes, based on data originally reported to and made publicly available by the United Nations Statistical Division, then processed to reconcile trade asymmetries by the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales. This and other high quality, statistically relevant data sources exist, but are largely untapped resources for strategic trade control purposes. Efforts to promote and facilitate use of trade data should enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of strategic trade control efforts.
Strategic Trade Atlas 2015-2019: Country- and Commodity-Based Views
A Strategic Trade Atlas was developed to promote understanding of global trade flows of strategic goods, i.e., goods of militarily strategic value, including dual-use goods. This Atlas provides macroscopic graphical representations of global trade flows classified under Harmonized System (HS) codes associated by the World Customs Organization with strategic commodities. The profiles provide information rich representations of strategic commodity-related imports and exports classified under these HS codes, based on data originally reported to and made publicly available by the United Nations Statistical Division, then processed to reconcile trade asymmetries by the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales. This and other high quality, statistically relevant data sources exist, but are largely untapped resources for strategic trade control purposes. Efforts to promote and facilitate use of trade data should enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of strategic trade control efforts.
Local, regional, and global adaptations to a compound pandemic-weather stress event
Global food security can be threatened by short-term extreme events that negatively impact food production, food purchasing power, and agricultural economic activity. At the same time, environmental pollutants like greenhouse gases (GHGs) can be reduced due to the same short-term extreme stressors. Stress events include pandemics like COVID-19 and widespread droughts like those experienced in 2015. Here we consider the question: what if COVID-19 had co-occurred with a 2015-like drought year? Using a coupled biophysical-economic modeling framework, we evaluate how this compound stress would alter both agricultural sector GHG emissions and change the number of undernourished people worldwide. We further consider three interdependent adaptation options: local water use for crop production, regional shifts in cropland area, and global trade of agricultural products. We find that GHG emissions decline due to reduced economic activity in the agricultural sector, but this is paired with large increases in undernourished populations in developing nations. Local and regional adaptations that make use of natural resources enable global-scale reductions in impacted populations via increased global trade.
Investigation into the impact of agility on conceptual fighter design
The Agility Design Study was performed by the Boeing Defense and Space Group for the NASA Langley Research Center. The objective of the study was to assess the impact of agility requirements on new fighter configurations. Global trade issues investigated were the level of agility, the mission role of the aircraft (air-to-ground, multi-role, or air-to-air), and whether the customer is Air force, Navy, or joint service. Mission profiles and design objectives were supplied by NASA. An extensive technology assessment was conducted to establish the available technologies to industry for the aircraft. Conceptual level methodology is presented to assess the five NASA-supplied agility metrics. Twelve configurations were developed to address the global trade issues. Three-view drawings, inboard profiles, and performance estimates were made and are included in the report. A critical assessment and lessons learned from the study are also presented.
The impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural sector under the national self-sufficiency policy
Evolving environmental conditions due to climate change have brought about changes in agriculture, which is required for human life as both a source of food and income. International trade can act as a buffer against potential negative impacts of climate change on crop yields, but recent years have seen breakdowns in global trade, including export bans to improve domestic food security. For countries that rely heavily on imported food, governments may institute policies to protect their agricultural industry from changes in climate-induced crop yield changes and other countries’ potential trade restrictions. This study assesses the individual and combined effects of climate impacts and food self-sufficiency policies in Korea, which is highly dependent on imports. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), a global integrated assessment model, to explore (1) the direct impact of climate change on Korea’s agricultural yields, (2) the full impacts of global climate change on agricultural production, including trade-induced changes due to yield changes in other regions, (3) the impacts of food self-sufficiency policy, and (4) the interactive impact of climate change and self-sufficiency policies. We find that, in Korea, the direct impact of climate change on agricultural yields would be overshadowed by the impact of global climate change due to changing trade patterns. Second, global climate change leads to a rise (rice and wheat) or a decline (soybeans) in Korean producer revenues, while simultaneously raising consumer expenditures on both staples and non-staples. Third, implementing self-sufficiency policies for wheat and soybeans in Korea boosts the nation’s producer revenues, in conjunction with the effects of climate change, at the cost of additional increases in consumer expenditures for both staples and non-staples.
The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling
Future socioeconomic and climate scenarios have been explored using integrated assessment models (IAMs) to understand interactions between human development and global environmental change in the long run. However, differences in trade modeling approaches are an important source of uncertainty in the assessments, particularly for regional projections. Here, we explore the critical role of trade modeling in assessing the potential future of global agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions with a well-established IAM, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We update the crop trade modeling framework in GCAM from a Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) structure with integrated world markets (IWM) to a newly developed logit-based Armington approach with segmented regional markets (SRM). The updates make it possible to study the sensitivity of model projections of future agroeconomics and terrestrial carbon emissions to assumptions of the state and magnitude of global market integration. Our results demonstrate that assuming full global market integration, represented by homogeneous product modeling, neglecting economic geography, and excluding margins and tariffs, could lead to lower cropland use (i.e., by 115 million hectares globally) and terrestrial carbon fluxes (i.e., by 25%) by the end of the century. However, the results are highly heterogeneous across regions with more pronounced regional trade responses driven by global market integration. Our study highlights the critical role of trade modeling around product differentiation, economic geography, and regional trade parameterization in global economic or integrated assessment modeling. The results also imply that further reconciliations in trade model approaches could improve the convergence of regional results among models in model intercomparison studies.
A thousand-genome panel retraces the global spread and adaptation of a major fungal crop pathogen
Human activity impacts the evolutionary trajectories of many species worldwide. Global trade of agricultural goods contributes to the dispersal of pathogens reshaping their genetic makeup and providing opportunities for virulence gains. Understanding how pathogens surmount control strategies and cope with new climates is crucial to predicting the future impact of crop pathogens. Here, we address this by assembling a global thousand-genome panel of Zymoseptoria tritici, a major fungal pathogen of wheat reported in all production areas worldwide. We identify the global invasion routes and ongoing genetic exchange of the pathogen among wheat-growing regions. We find that the global expansion was accompanied by increased activity of transposable elements and weakened genomic defenses. Finally, we find significant standing variation for adaptation to new climates encountered during the global spread. Our work shows how large population genomic panels enable deep insights into the evolutionary trajectory of a major crop pathogen.
Information data systems for a global change technology initiative architecture trade study
The Global Change Technology Initiative (GCTI) was established to develop technology which will enable use of satellite systems of Earth observations on a global scale, enable use of the observations to predictively model Earth's changes, and provide scientists, government, business, and industry with quick access to the resulting information. At LaRC, a GCTI Architecture Trade Study was undertaken to develop and evaluate the architectural implications to meet the requirements of the global change studies and the eventual implementation of a global change system. The output of the trade study are recommended technologies for the GCTI. That portion of the study concerned with the information data system is documented. The information data system for an earth global change modeling system can be very extensive and beyond affordability in terms of today's costs. Therefore, an incremental approach to gaining a system is most likely. An options approach to levels of capability versus needed technologies was developed. The primary drivers of the requirements for the information data system evaluation were the needed science products, the science measurements, the spacecraft orbits, the instruments configurations, and the spacecraft configurations and their attendant architectures. The science products requirements were not studied here; however, some consideration of the product needs were included in the evaluation results. The information data system technology items were identified from the viewpoint of the desirable overall information system characteristics.
The future of fungi: threats and opportunities
The fungal kingdom represents an extraordinary diversity of organisms with profound impacts across animal, plant, and ecosystem health. Fungi simultaneously support life, by forming beneficial symbioses with plants and producing life-saving medicines, and bring death, by causing devastating diseases in humans, plants, and animals. With climate change, increased antimicrobial resistance, global trade, environmental degradation, and novel viruses altering the impact of fungi on health and disease, developing new approaches is now more crucial than ever to combat the threats posed by fungi and to harness their extraordinary potential for applications in human health, food supply, and environmental remediation. To address this aim, the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR) and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund convened a workshop to unite leading experts on fungal biology from academia and industry to strategize innovative solutions to global challenges and fungal threats. This report provides recommendations to accelerate fungal research and highlights the major research advances and ideas discussed at the meeting pertaining to 5 major topics: (1) Connections between fungi and climate change and ways to avert climate catastrophe; (2) Fungal threats to humans and ways to mitigate them; (3) Fungal threats to agriculture and food security and approaches to ensure a robust global food supply; (4) Fungal threats to animals and approaches to avoid species collapse and extinction; and (5) Opportunities presented by the fungal kingdom, including novel medicines and enzymes.
Tigers at a crossroads: Shedding light on the role of Bangladesh in the illegal trade of this iconic big cat
Abstract Unsustainable wildlife trade is a major threat to many species, but quantifying trade remains challenging, as seizure data provides an incomplete understanding. For this reason, integrating multiple types of information, including interviews with actors involved in trade, is crucial if we are to understand the problem better. Hence, in this study, we digitized Bangladesh Forest Department tiger seizure records to identify trade routes and interviewed 163 individuals involved in trafficking tigers through Bangladesh's air, sea and land ports, including poachers, smugglers, and traders. We identified six ports used to import tigers, 14 ports used for tiger export and three ports showing bi‐directional trade. Elite Bangladeshis were the most important consumer group, and tigers were sourced from populations in NE India, Myanmar and Bangladesh Sundarbans to supply domestic demand. Tiger products were exported to 14 countries, including seven G20 nations, with Bangladeshi expatriates as the consumer group in three countries (United Kingdom, Germany and Qatar). Rising economic development in Bangladesh over the last decade, combined with deep‐rooted cultural ties to tiger consumption, has led to a rise in domestic demand. Additionally, rapid growth in international transport links has increased smuggling and connected local traders with global markets, increasing the complexity of global trade. These findings suggest Bangladesh is poised to play a pivotal role in tiger conservation over the next decade, requiring strong national strategies to reduce trade opportunities, disrupt networks and weaken demand.
Chapter 2: Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines
The global geothermal power market has shown significant growth since the last decade and is expected to reach a total installed capacity of 18.4 gigawatts electric (GWe) by the end of 2021 (GEA, 2016). The global geothermal power plant turbine market is dominated by a small number of manufacturers. Between 2005 and 2015, 82% of the geothermal steam turbines were manufactured in Japan, and 74% of the geothermal binary cycle turboexpanders were manufactured in Israel. During this period, the United States played an important role in the global trade flow of fully assembled turbine units and turbine parts, with a high volume of imports and exports. Another significant growth area was in Italian turbine/turboexpander manufacturers, who have increased their market share in the last couple of years. One other important change in the manufacturing market was in Turkey, where the bonus on feed-in-tariff (FIT) for domestic hardware components boosted the national manufacturing sector between 2010 and 2020. When planning geothermal power projects, developers customize their power plant size to fit the available geothermal resource capacity. The turbine is designed and sized to optimize the efficiency and utilization of resource and revenue production. The rest of the power plant components such as heat exchangers (HX), water-cooled cooling towers (WCCT), or air-cooled condensers (ACC) are then chosen to complement the turbine size and design. These one-off manufacturing custom design turbines have relatively higher manufacturing set-up costs, longer lead times, and higher capital costs than the standard design turbines manufactured in larger volumes. However, turbines produced in standard increments and in larger manufacturing volumes could result in lower costs per turbine, but potentially lower efficiency. Based on pipeline projects and resource assessments, there is significant potential value in creating standard turbine sizes that could offer an economic advantage, as is done for modular microturbines.
Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world
Abstract Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, and managed systems’ adaptive capacities. Beyond geophysical stressors and responses, it is critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate water shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis of potential water scarcity impacts by linking a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a metric for the loss of economic surplus due to resource shortages. We find that, dependent on scenario assumptions, major hydrologic basins can experience strongly positive or strongly negative economic impacts due to global trade dynamics and market adaptations to regional scarcity. In many cases, market adaptation profoundly magnifies economic uncertainty relative to hydrologic uncertainty. Our analysis finds that impactful scenarios are often combinations of standard scenarios, showcasing that planners cannot presume drivers of uncertainty in complex adaptive systems.