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Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗

Experimental system, and its evaluation for the control of surgically inducted infections

The effect is reported to design, fabricate, test and evaluate a prototype experimental system for the control of surgically induced infections. The purpose is to provide the cleanest possible environment within a hospital surgery room and eliminate contamination sources that could cause infections during surgery. The system design is described. The system provides for a portable laminar flow clean room, a full bubble helmet system with associated communications and ventilation subsystems for operating room personnel, and surgical gowns that minimize the migration of bacteria. The development test results consisting of portability, laminar flowrate, air flow pattern, electrostatic buildup, noise level, ventilation, human factors, electrical and material compatibility tests are summarized. The conclusions are that the experimental system is effective in reducing the airborne and wound contamination although the helmets and gowns may not be a significant part of this reduction. Definitive conclusions with regard to the infection rate cannot be made at this time.

Tevebaugh, M. D.↗

Zirconium-Based Metal–Organic Frameworks as Reusable Antibacterial Peroxide Carriers for Protective Textiles

Countries around the world have sought efficient protective coverings, including masks, gowns, and fabrics, for air purification to protect people against infectious diseases. However, the demand for significant quantities of disposable protective textiles poses a global challenge, especially when the production of protective gear is suspended due to COVID-19 outbreaks in factories and along supply lines. Therefore, the development of reusable, self-decontaminating protective masks and coverings loaded with disinfectants, such as antibacterial peroxide species, presents an attractive strategy to fight against bacteria risks. In this work, we incorporated persulfate ions, which serve as stable active peroxide precursors, into two porous zirconium-based metal–organic frameworks (Zr-MOFs), enabling these materials to act as regenerable reservoirs for the slow release of biocidal hydrogen peroxide upon hydrolysis by contact with humid air. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction studies reveal the two different coordination motifs for the persulfate ions, which can either bridge between two adjacent nodes or coordinate to a single node depending on both the node connectivity and the distances between open metal sites. The active peroxide precursors within the porous Zr-MOF carriers are stable during storage and easily regenerated once consumed. Importantly, these persulfate-loaded Zr-MOFs can be integrated onto textiles using a facile aqueous in-situ growth procedure, and these composites demonstrate potent and reusable biocidal activity against both Gram-negative bacteria and Gram-positive bacteria. Altogether, this approach presents a viable strategy to develop robust protective textiles capable of rapidly deactivating pathogens.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Photocatalytic Biocidal Coatings Featuring Zr 6 Ti 4 -Based Metal–Organic Frameworks

The world is currently suffering socially, economically, and politically from the recent pandemic outbreak due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and those in hospitals, schools, and elderly nursing homes face enhanced threats. Healthcare textiles, such as masks and medical staff gowns, are susceptible to contamination of various pathogenic microorganisms, including bacteria and viruses. Here, metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) can potentially address these challenges due to their tunable reactivity and ability to be incorporated as porous coatings on textile materials. Here, we report how incorporating titanium into the zirconium-pyrene-based MOF NU-1000, denoted as NU-1012, generates a highly reactive biocidal photocatalyst. This MOF features a rare ligand migration phenomenon, and both the Ti/Zr center and the pyrene linker act synergistically as dual active centers and widen the absorption band for this material that results in enhanced reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation upon visible light irradiation. Additionally, we found the ligand migration process is generally applicable to other csq topology Zr-MOFs. Importantly, NU-1012 can be easily incorporated onto cotton textile cloths as a coating, and the resulting composite material demonstrates fast and potent biocidal activity against Gram-negative bacteria (E. coli), Gram-positive bacteria (S. epidermidis), and T7 bacteriophage virus with up to a 7-log (99.99999%) reduction within one hour under simulated daylight.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Uncertainty analysis of Resource Demand Model for Covid-19

As part of the Department of Energy response to the novel coronavirus pandemic of 2020, a modeling effort was sponsored by the DOE Office of Science. One task of this modeling effort at Sandia was to develop a model to predict medical resource needs given various patient arrival scenarios. Resources needed include personnel resources (nurses, ICU nurses, physicians, respiratory therapists), fixed resources (regular or ICU beds and ventilators), and consumable resources (masks, gowns, gloves, face shields, sedatives). This report documents the uncertainty analysis that was performed on the resource model. The uncertainty analysis involved sampling 26 input parameters to the model. The sampling was performed conditional on the patient arrival streams that also were inputs to the model. These patient arrival streams were derived from various epidemiology models and had a significant effect on the projected resource needs. In this report, we document the sampling approach, the parameter ranges used, and the computational workflow necessary to perform large-scale uncertainty studies for every county and state in the United States.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Robotic Assembly of SRF Cavity Pair

Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) cavities for particle accelerators require tight tolerances, ultrahigh vacuum, and strict cleanliness during assembly. As in the semiconductor industry, defects such as particles and residues are deleterious to performance, possibly rendering a cavity unfit for use. This problem is addressed primarily through cleanroom assembly during sensitive steps and rigorous chemical processing to prevent and remove such defects. Human workers are often the largest source of contamination, even with proper gowning and practices. The semiconductor industry has long integrated robots in cleanroom operation, but this has not occurred for SRF cavity production; SRF cavities, unlike wafers, are complex shapes, require more hands-on mechanical assembly, and are low-volume production items. At Jefferson Laboratory, a co-operative robot (cobot) has been setup to overcome these problems. Cobots are safe for use alongside human workers and can integrate new tools such as a 3D camera part detection and gripper for item manipulation. Therefore, cobots represent a promising avenue for reducing particulate generated during a variety of assembly tasks. A mockup of a cavity pair and coupler was setup and the cobot programmed to automatically pick up the coupler and place on the mating cavity flange. Particle counting methods were setup to measure human vs cobot assembly particulate generation inside a cavity mockup. Other potential uses will be discussed for further improving SRF cavity assembly steps, where a cobot can replace or assist a human operator, and what potential gains are expected.

Duzik, Adam [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator↗

Experimental system for the control of surgically induced infections, operating and maintenance instructions D203613-004

An experimental portable system used to control surgically induced infections is described. The system consists of a portable clean room comprised of a laminar flow filter system consistent with Federal standards; a helmet-shoulder pad assembly; a communication system; a helmet ventilation system; a transparent walled enclosure; and surgical gowns. Guidelines for the set up and operation of such equipment are given along with corrective steps to use in case of system malfunctions. Cleaning procedures, maintenance requirements, and disassembly and transfer particulars are included.

Tevebaugh, M. D.↗

Experimental system for the control of surgically induced infections

The experimental system is described, and the procedures for surgery usage and maintenance are outlined. Basically the system consists of the following: (1) a portable clean room comprised of a horizontal laminar flow filter system and a transparent walled enclosure, (2) a helmet-shoulder pad assembly, (3) a communications system, (4) a helmet ventilation system, and (5) surgical gowns.

Source record↗

Eye Surgery Light

During eye surgery, the surgeon uses an illuminating instrument called an opthalmoscope for close examination of the retina or the interior of the eye. Ordinarily, electric power for the head-mounted light is supplied through a cord from an overhead swivel arm or a floor pedestal. Within limits of cord length and swivel arm movement, the surgeon has considerable freedom of motion. But when more than one opthalmoscope is involved, tangling and interference of the power cords becomes a problem. St. Luke's Hospital, Cleveland, Ohio asked Lewis Research Center for assistance in finding a solution. Lewis responded with a battery-powered system that totally frees the surgeon of attached cords and swivels. Borrowing from space technology, Lewis used small, lightweight nickel-cadmium batteries that can deliver high intensity light for an hour and can be recharged overnight. The Opthalmoscope Powerpack consists of eight batteries in three containers affixed to a webbed belt, and a novel on-off switch equipped with a spring-loaded plexiglass 'flapper.' The belt pack is worn underneath the surgical gown and the flapper permits the doctor to activate the switch by elbow pressure. Lewis built five units and they have been in service at St. Luke's Hospital for a year. Used for routine examinations as well as for surgery, they have demonstrated excellent reliability.

Source record↗

Eye Surgery Light

During eye surgery, the surgeon uses an illuminating instrument called an opthalmoscope for close examination of the retina or the interior of the eye. Ordinarily, electric power for the head-mounted light is supplied through a cord from an overhead swivel arm or a floor pedestal. Within limits of cord length and swivel arm movement, the surgeon has considerable freedom of motion. But when more than one opthalmoscope is involved, tangling and interference of the power cords becomes a problem. St. Luke's Hospital, Cleveland, Ohio asked Lewis Research Center for assistance in finding a solution. Lewis responded with a battery-powered system that totally frees the surgeon of attached cords and swivels. Borrowing from space technology, Lewis used small, lightweight nickel-cadmium batteries that can deliver high intensity light for an hour and can be recharged overnight. The Opthalmoscope Powerpack consists of eight batteries in three containers affixed to a webbed belt, and a novel on-off switch equipped with a springloaded plexiglass "flapper." The belt pack is worn underneath the surgical gown and the flapper permits the doctor to activate the switch by elbow pressure. Lewis built five units and they have been in service at St. Luke's Hospital for a year. Used for routine examinations as well as for surgery, they have demonstrated excellent reliability.

Source record↗

Air and Water Temperature Relationship and Growth of Hyacinth and Primrose

Temperature is a primary determining factor for plant growth and development so providing an appropriate temperature input is critically important for developing growth models. The Delta Region Areawide Aquatic Weed Project (DRAAWP), a USDA (US Dept. of Agriculture)-sponsored area-wide project including NASA Ames Research Center and State of California Department of Boating and Waterways, uses modeling to assess invasive aquatic plant impacts on ecosystem services in the Delta. Availability of continuous records for monitored temperature is limited and particularly in the case of water temperature the distribution of monitoring is inadequate. This work quantitatively defines the influence of air and water temperature in determining dominant growth rate processes for important floating aquatic invasive plants in the Delta. Since these plants function with portions submerged and above water we wanted to understand the relationship between root zone and shoot zone temperature and ability to use a single temperature inputs in DRAAWP models. Water Hyacinth and Primrose were gown in multiple controlled environment chamber studies with various combinations of root zone and shoot zone temperatures. Long-term growth studies provided integrated response of biomass accumulation and distribution within the canopy. Short-term gas exchange studies provide a time scale for responsiveness to temperature and a short-term study approach to evaluate temperature responses at various stages of canopy development.

Hyacinth↗

New Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS REx Curation Facilities at Nasa Johnson Space Center

Asteroids are made up of rocky material that is left over from the formation of our solar system [1]. This material holds the key to unlocking information about the history of the planets and our sun. Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx are two sample return missions that have collected rocky material from carbonaceous asteroids which are rich in water, carbon, and organic compounds [1]. Hayabusa2 is a spacecraft that collected samples from asteroid Ryugu launched by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Samples were returned to Earth in December 2020 and 10 percent of the collected material is currently housed in a state-of-the-art laboratory at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) dedicated to Ryugu material [1]. OSIRIS-REx is a spacecraft launched by NASA that collected samples from asteroid Bennu. The samples are on their journey to Earth and will arrive in September 2023. They will be stored in a separate cleanroom dedicated to Bennu material. From these two missions, scientists will examine dust particles and rocky material to research clues on how the early solar system formed and how life began [2]. Because these samples are so precious and rare, it is important to keep them free from Earth contamination. In September of 2020, a massive construction project began to provide curation facilities to meet the needs of two incoming asteroid collections, Hayabusa2 and OSIRIS-REx. Despite numerous setbacks caused by the coronavirus pandemic, these facilities have been completed in the fall of 2021. Some of these setbacks included strict PPE requirements, keeping safe working distances as well as access to the facilities as NASA was operating under a Stage 3 condition in response to the pandemic. These facilities will provide curation laboratories to safely house the precious asteroid samples as well as facilities to manipulate samples, do sample preparation and process samples into and out of the labs for future studies by the scientific community. The lab suite consists of several different rooms including an initial anteroom (ISO 7), a staging area (ISO 7), two gowning areas (one for OSIRIS-REx and one for Hayabusa2; both ISO 6)), the Haybusa2 Curation Laboratory (ISO 5), the OSIRIS-REx Curation Laboratory (ISO 5), an ultramicrotomy laboratory (ISO 7) and a thin section laboratory (not a cleanroom). To maintain cleanliness levels necessary for these lab spaces quarterly to monthly Balazs organic and inorganic sampling has been conducted on a regular basis before, during and after the construction project to monitor the cleanliness levels in the new labs that will house the asteroid samples. These new facilities feature a Ruuvi (Grafana) monitoring system that measures temperature, humidity, and pressure of the lab suite. This is a small puck shaped sensor that sends signals to the Grafana cloud where the data can be plotted and set up on dashboards within the lab suite. These sensors are easy to set up and install and they run off a cell battery that is good for 3-5 years before needing replacement. This system can deliver text messages and emails to the appropriate personnel when values fall outside of set limits. In addition to the monitoring system, this new lab suite features viewing windows from several different locations and sliding motion censored doors. We have obtained some state-of-the-art equipment to outfit the lab spaces (desiccators, microscopes, ultramicrotome) and are in the process of outfitting the suite with additional items such as: nitrogen gloveboxes, additional desiccators, micromanipulators, etc. The Hayabusa2 samples provided to NASA by JAXA included 23 millimeter sized grains and 4 containers with finer material. OSIRIS-REx is expected to return as much as 400 grams of asteroid Bennu. Samples will be stored in a nitrogen glove box and separated into nitrogen sealed transfer containers. Small Bennu and Ryugu particles will be handled and prepared (e.g., ultra-thin sections for scanning electron microscopy (SEM) or transmission electron microscopy (TEM)) using an Axis Pro micromanipulator and Leica EM UC7 ultramicrotome. Analyzing samples at the atomic scale will provide greater insight to the origins of the solar system and life formation on Earth. All the curation preparation for these sample collections is essential to ongoing research and efforts to understand our solar system, both nowand for future generations.

Curation↗

Ozone Gas: Scientific Justification and Practical Guidelines for Improvised Disinfection using Consumer-Grade Ozone Generators and Plastic Storage Boxes

Here, we describe direct measurements of ozone concentration achievable in small enclosed containers (plastic storage boxes) for use as improvised decontamination systems for small articles such as disposable PPE (N95 masks, nitrile gloves, etc.), clothing, mail and small packages, food, and other miscellaneous articles. The emphasis is on the reliable and sustained generation of ozone gas concentrations of sufficient concentration and duration to create an effective virucidal environment to achieve more than 95% to 99% viral inactivation, based upon the data already published in the peer-review literature on this topic. The suggestion that ozone be used to inactivate virus is certainly not a new idea. Our objective in this report is to make clear that the necessary levels of ozone can be improvised using simple, easy-to-use, inexpensive, and widely available supplies, and that there is every theoretical and experimental reason to believe that this approach is as highly effective in viral inactivation by ozone as are the far more expensive, complex, cumbersome, and less available equivalent ozone (and other) disinfectant systems that have themselves become unavailable during times of pandemic crisis. Using multiple types of readily available commercial ozone generators, concentration in the tested improvised enclosure is tracked over time to assess ozone charging and decay rates, and the ozone quenching effects of items placed in the box. Generator performance is compared against published ozone dosage values for virucidal and antimicrobial activity. Bubbler and box-fan-type ozone generators were found to be effective at achieving and maintaining target concentrations of 10ppm ozone or higher, whereas automotive cigarette lighter and universal serial bus type plug in “air freshener” ozone generators could not achieve the target concentrations in these experiments. Calculations and practical guidelines for assembly and effective use of an ozone box for improvised decontamination are offered. The majority of this report is directed toward the scientific justification and rationale for this approach. The end of the document summarizes the findings and offers simplified designs for the construction and use of ozone boxes as an improvised method of disinfection.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗