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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive understanding of the surface tension and velocity of sound in ionic liquids using machine learning

Knowledge of the physical properties of ionic liquids (ILs), such as the surface tension and speed of sound, is important for both industrial and research applications. Unfortunately, technical challenges and costs limit exhaustive experimental screening efforts of ILs for these critical properties. Previous work has demonstrated that the use of quantum-mechanics-based thermochemical property prediction tools, such as the conductor-like screening model for real solvents, when combined with machine learning (ML) approaches, may provide an alternative pathway to guide the rapid screening and design of ILs for desired physiochemical properties. However, the question of which machine-learning approaches are most appropriate remains. In the present study, we examine how different ML architectures, ranging from tree-based approaches to feed-forward artificial neural networks, perform in generating nonlinear multivariate quantitative structure–property relationship models for the prediction of the temperature- and pressure-dependent surface tension of and speed of sound in ILs over a wide range of surface tensions (16.9–76.2 mN/m) and speeds of sound (1009.7–1992 m/s). The ML models are further interrogated using the powerful interpretation method, shapley additive explanations. We find that several different ML models provide high accuracy, according to traditional statistical metrics. The decision tree-based approaches appear to be the most accurate and precise, with extreme gradient-boosting trees and gradient-boosting trees being the best performers. However, our results also indicate that the promise of using machine-learning to gain deep insights into the underlying physics driving structure–property relationships in ILs may still be somewhat premature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Offshore application of landslide susceptibility mapping using gradient-boosted decision trees: a Gulf of Mexico case study

Abstract Among natural hazards occurring offshore, submarine landslides pose a significant risk to offshore infrastructure installations attached to the seafloor. With the offshore being important for current and future energy production, there is a need to anticipate where future landslide events are likely to occur to support planning and development projects. Using the northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM) as a case study, this paper performs Landslide Susceptibility Mapping (LSM) using a gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT) model to characterize the spatial patterns of submarine landslide probability over the United States Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) where water depths are greater than 120 m. With known spatial extents of historic submarine landslides and a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of known topographical, geomorphological, geological, and geochemical factors, the resulting model was capable of accurately forecasting potential locations of sediment instability. Results of a permutation modelling approach indicated that LSM accuracy is sensitive to the number of unique training locations with model accuracy becoming more stable as the number of training regions was increased. The influence that each input feature had on predicting landslide susceptibility was evaluated using the SHapely Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature attribution method. Areas of high and very high susceptibility were associated with steep terrain including salt basins and escarpments. This case study serves as an initial assessment of the machine learning (ML) capabilities for producing accurate submarine landslide susceptibility maps given the current state of available natural hazard-related datasets and conveys both successes and limitations.

Dyer, Alec S. (ORCID:0000000219813904)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression

The operation of cyber-physical-human (CPH) systems is subject to various epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Overall trustworthiness of CPH systems relies on the trustworthiness of its components and their interactions. It is important that computational models comprising the cyber component of CPH provide predictions accompanied by a measure of confidence in model outcomes. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation are especially important in safety critical CPH systems. Gradient-boosted trees is a modeling approach capable both of learning the dynamics of a system and performing UQ. In this paper, we devise a method for using gradient boosting to learn the dynamics of a second order differential equation and estimate uncertainty at the same time. We do this by creating a custom loss function that trains the model to approximate the second derivative of a noisy time series, and to penalize based on a parameter that corresponds to the desired quantile. The resulting gradient boosting model can simulate stochastic trajectories of the system given a single starting point, that is, it can estimate both the expected trajectory and its uncertainty. We show that the uncertainty estimation is well calibrated and that the model can learn the dynamics even in the presence of noise. We demonstrate the approach on a simple cartpole system.

Autonomous systems↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning Approaches for Prediction of the Equivalent Alkane Carbon Number for Microemulsions Based on Molecular Properties

The chemical properties of oils are vital in the design of microemulsion systems. The hydrophilic–lipophilic difference equation used to predict microemulsions’ phase behavior expresses the oils’ physiochemical properties as the equivalent alkane carbon number (EACN). The experimental determination of EACN requires knowledge of the temperature dependence of the microemulsion system and the effects of different surfactant concentrations. Thus, the experimental determination is time-intensive and tedious, requiring days to months for proper separations. Furthermore, the experiments require high purity of chemicals because microemulsions are sensitive to impurities. Our work focuses on the quick and reliable predictions of the EACN with machine learning (ML) models. Due to the immaturity of ML chemical predictions, we compare three graph neural networks (GNNs) and a gradient-boosted tree algorithm, known as XGBoost. The GNNs use the molecular structures represented as simplified molecular-input line-entry system (SMILES) codes for the initial input, which allows us to assess whether geometry optimization is necessary for reliable results. The XGBoost model also begins with the SMILES representations of the molecules but uses molecular descriptors instead of geometry optimizations. As a result, the best model tested (crystal graph convolutional neural network with Merck molecular force field-94) has an error of 1.15 EACN units of the true EACN for unknown data with the errors skewed toward zero and an R² score of 0.9

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gray matter volume drives the brain age gap in schizophrenia: a SHAP study

Neuroimaging-based brain age is a biomarker that is generated by machine learning (ML) predictions. The brain age gap (BAG) is typically defined as the difference between the predicted brain age and chronological age. Studies have consistently reported a positive BAG in individuals with schizophrenia (SCZ). However, there is little understanding of which specific factors drive the ML-based brain age predictions, leading to limited biological interpretations of the BAG. We gathered data from three publicly available databases - COBRE, MCIC, and UCLA - and an additional dataset (TOPSY) of early-stage schizophrenia (82.5% untreated first-episode sample) and calculated brain age with pre-trained gradient-boosted trees. Then, we applied SHapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) to identify which brain features influence brain age predictions. We investigated the interaction between the SHAP score for each feature and group as a function of the BAG. These analyses identified total gray matter volume (group × SHAP interaction term β = 1.71 [0.53; 3.23]; p corr < 0.03) as the feature that influences the BAG observed in SCZ among the brain features that are most predictive of brain age. Other brain features also presented differences in SHAP values between SCZ and HC, but they were not significantly associated with the BAG. We compared the findings with a non-psychotic depression dataset (CAN-BIND), where the interaction was not significant. This study has important implications for the understanding of brain age prediction models and the BAG in SCZ and, potentially, in other psychiatric disorders.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Benchmarks for the Classification of Equivalent Circuit Models from Electrochemical Impedance Spectra

Analysis of Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) data for electrochemical systems often consists of defining an Equivalent Circuit Model (ECM) using expert knowledge and then optimizing the model parameters to deconvolute various resistance, capacitive, inductive, or diffusion responses. For small data sets, this procedure can be conducted manually; however, it is not feasible to manually define a proper ECM for extensive data sets with a wide range of EIS responses. Automatic identification of an ECM would substantially accelerate the analysis of large sets of EIS data. We showcase machine learning methods to classify the ECMs of 9,300 impedance spectra provided by QuantumScape for the BatteryDEV hackathon. The best-performing approach is a gradient-boosted tree model utilizing a library to automatically generate features, followed by a random forest model using the raw spectral data. A convolutional neural network using boolean images of Nyquist representations is presented as an alternative, although it achieves a lower accuracy. We publish the data and open source the associated code. The approaches described in this article can serve as benchmarks for further studies. A key remaining challenge is the identifiability of the labels, underlined by the model performances and the comparison of misclassified spectra.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating boosted decision trees as a guide for inertial confinement fusion design

Inertial confined fusion experiments at the National Ignition Facility have recently entered a new regime approaching ignition. Improved modeling and exploration of the experimental parameter space were essential to deepening our understanding of the mechanisms that degrade and amplify the neutron yield. The growing prevalence of machine learning in fusion studies opens a new avenue for investigation. Here in this paper, we have applied the Gradient-Boosted Decision Tree machine-learning architecture to further explore the parameter space and find correlations with the neutron yield, a key performance indicator. We find reasonable agreement between the measured and predicted yield, with a mean absolute percentage error on a randomly assigned test set of 35.5%. This model finds the characteristics of the laser pulse to be the most influential in prediction, as well as the hohlraum laser entrance hole diameter and an enhanced capsule fabrication technique. We used the trained model to scan over the design space of experiments from three different campaigns to evaluate the potential of this technique to provide design changes that could improve the resulting neutron yield. While these data-driven model cannot predict ignition without examples of ignited shots in the training set, it can be used to indicate that an unseen shot design will at least be in the upper range of previously observed neutron yields.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning-based prediction of enzyme substrate scope: Application to bacterial nitrilases

Predicting the range of substrates accepted by an enzyme from its amino acid sequence is challenging. Although sequenc- and structure-based annotation approaches are often accurate for predicting broad categories of substrate specificity, they generally cannot predict which specific molecules will be accepted as substrates for a given enzyme, particularly within a class of closely related molecules. Combining targeted experimental activity data with structural modeling, ligand docking, and physicochemical properties of proteins and ligands with various machine learning models provides complementary information that can lead to accurate predictions of substrate scope for related enzymes. Here we describe such an approach that can predict the substrate scope of bacterial nitrilases, which catalyze the hydrolysis of nitrile compounds to the corresponding carboxylic acids and ammonia. Each of the four machine learning models (logistic regression, random forest, gradient-boosted decision trees, and support vector machines) performed similarly (average ROC = 0.9, average accuracy = ~82%) for predicting substrate scope for this dataset, although random forest offers some advantages. Finally, this approach is intended to be highly modular with respect to physicochemical property calculations and software used for structural modeling and docking.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identification of low-momentum muons in the CMS detector using multivariate techniques in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13.6 TeV

“Soft” muons with a transverse momentum below 10 GeV are featured in many processes studied by the CMS experiment, such as decays of heavy-flavor hadrons or rare tau lepton decays. Maximizing the selection efficiency for these muons, while simultaneously suppressing backgrounds from long-lived light-flavor hadron decays, is therefore important for the success of the CMS physics program. Multivariate techniques have been shown to deliver better muon identification performance than traditional selection techniques. To take full advantage of the large data set currently being collected during Run 3 of the CERN LHC, a new multivariate classifier based on a gradient-boosted decision tree has been developed. It offers a significantly improved separation of signal and background muons compared to a similar classifier used for the analysis of the Run 2 data. The performance of the new classifier is evaluated on a data set collected with the CMS detector in 2022 and 2023, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 62 fb -1 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine-learning prediction for quasiparton distribution function matrix elements

There have been rapid developments in the direct calculation in lattice QCD (LQCD) of the Bjorken-x dependence of hadron structure through large-momentum effective theory (LaMET). LaMET overcomes the previous limitation of LQCD to moments (that is, integrals over Bjorken x) of hadron structure, allowing LQCD to directly provide the kinematic regions where the experimental values are least known. LaMET requires large-momentum hadron states to minimize its systematics and allow us to reach small- x reliably. This means that very fine lattice spacing to minimize lattice artifacts at order $(P_za)^n$ will become crucial for next-generation LaMET-like structure calculations. Furthermore, such calculations require operators with long Wilson-link displacements, especially in finer lattice units, increasing the communication costs relative to that of the propagator inversion. In this work, we explore whether machine-learning algorithms can make predictions of correlators to reduce the computational cost of these LQCD calculations. We consider two algorithms, gradient-boosting decision tree and linear models, applied to LaMET data, the matrix elements needed to determine the kaon and $η_s$ unpolarized parton distribution functions (PDFs), meson distribution amplitude (DA), and the nucleon gluon PDF. We find that both algorithms can reliably predict the target observables with different prediction accuracy and systematic errors. The predictions from smaller displacement z to larger ones work better than those for momentum p due to the higher correlation among the data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Recursive Blind Forecast Against API and Baseline: A Puerto Rican Case Study on Solar Irradiance for Normal and Extreme Weather

This paper leverages ongoing work in a community microgrid in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico to forecast global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and compare performance in normal and extreme weather. Given a positive correlation of 0.98 between GHI and PV power, forecasting GHI can be an effective, indirect forecast of photovoltaic (PV) power, especially in microgrids where the end-users, owners, operators, or other stakeholders are reluctant to share data for training or validation due to privacy and security concerns. A recursive one-shot (termed as "blind") forecast is, hence, formulated, wherein a gradient-boosted regression tree (GBR) is built to forecast GHI for a 7-day horizon in normal weather, and a 2-day horizon in extreme weather. To demonstrate its resilience, the architecture is trained on normal and hurricane weather GHI from 2002-2022. It is generalized on February 9-16, 2023, and on the landfall of Hurricane Nicole (Nov 4-5, 2022), respectively. Forecasts from GBR are compared against that from a satellite-based API resource and three baselines: persistence, averaging, and exponential smoothing. Results show GBR and persistence outperform sophisticated API in both types of weather for this case study.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗
DOE OSTI2023

A bacterial sensor taxonomy across earth ecosystems for machine learning applications

Microbial communities have evolved to colonize all ecosystems of the planet, from the deep sea to the human gut. Microbes survive by sensing, responding, and adapting to immediate environmental cues. This process is driven by signal transduction proteins such as histidine kinases, which use their sensing domains to bind or otherwise detect environmental cues and “transduce” signals to adjust internal processes. We hypothesized that an ecosystem’s unique stimuli leave a sensor “fingerprint,” able to identify and shed insight on ecosystem conditions. To test this, we collected 20,712 publicly available metagenomes from Host-associated, Environmental, and Engineered ecosystems across the globe. We extracted and clustered the collection’s nearly 18M unique sensory domains into 113,712 similar groupings with MMseqs2. We built gradient-boosted decision tree machine learning models and found we could classify the ecosystem type (accuracy: 87%) and predict the levels of different physical parameters (R2 score: 83%) using the sensor cluster abundance as features. Feature importance enables identification of the most predictive sensors to differentiate between ecosystems which can lead to mechanistic interpretations if the sensor domains are well annotated. To demonstrate this, a machine learning model was trained to predict patient’s disease state and used to identify domains related to oxygen sensing present in a healthy gut but missing in patients with abnormal conditions. Moreover, since 98.7% of identified sensor domains are uncharacterized, importance ranking can be used to prioritize sensors to determine what ecosystem function they may be sensing. Furthermore, these new predictive sensors can function as targets for novel sensor engineering with applications in biotechnology, ecosystem maintenance, and medicine.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mitigating Algorithmic Bias in Cancer Site Classification Models

Purpose Integrating artificial intelligence in cancer diagnostics has improved tumor classification beyond rule-based systems. Despite these advancements, these models may still encode demographic biases. We conducted a large-scale, applied bias-probing study of a deep learning–based cancer site classifier to quantify race information encoded in document embeddings. We then evaluated how performance changes when race-correlated embedding dimensions are removed in a post-training sensitivity analysis. Methods The cancer site classifier was trained using 3.5 million electronic cancer pathology reports from six of the National Cancer Institute's SEER registries. We trained a hierarchical self-attention network to generate 400-dimensional document embeddings. These embeddings were used to train two downstream, gradient-boosted decision tree classifiers: one to classify the cancer sites and another to predict racial categories. We identified overlapping features by intersecting the top 50 feature-importance rankings from the site and race models and computed their cumulative feature importance in each model. As a post hoc sensitivity analysis, we progressively pruned these overlapping dimensions, retrained the site model, and compared overall macro-F1 and accuracy, race-stratified macro-F1, and group fairness metrics on the basis of demographic parity and equalized odds before and after pruning. Results The analysis revealed minimal feature overlap between the cancer site and race prediction models, and the cumulative importance scores indicated a negligible influence of racial information on clinical predictions. Post-training pruning of overlapping features did not compromise the models' diagnostic accuracy, with a 0.07% loss in accuracy. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate that HiSAN-generated embeddings from SEER data can be used effectively in cancer site classification without significant demographic bias influencing the outcomes. Post-training pruning therefore functions as a practical audit and sensitivity check.

Shivanna, Abhishek [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000665228593)↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Circular Velocity Curve of the Milky Way from 5–25 kpc Using Luminous Red Giant Branch Stars

We present a sample of 254,882 luminous red giant branch (LRGB) stars selected from the APOGEE and LAMOST surveys. By combining photometric and astrometric information from the Two Micron All Sky Survey and Gaia survey, the precise distances of the sample stars are determined by a supervised machine-learning algorithm: the gradient-boosted decision trees. To test the accuracy of the derived distances, member stars of globular clusters (GCs) and open clusters are used. The tests by cluster member stars show a precision of about 10% with negligible zero-point offsets, for the derived distances of our sample stars. The final sample covers a large volume of the Galactic disk(s) and halo of 0 < R < 30 kpc and |Z| ≤ 15 kpc. The rotation curve (RC) of the Milky Way across the radius of 5 ≲ R ≲ 25 kpc has been accurately measured with ~54,000 stars of the thin disk population selected from the LRGB sample. The derived RC shows a weak decline along R with a gradient of -1.83 ± 0.02 (stat.) ± 0.07 (sys.) km s -1 kpc -1 , in excellent agreement with the results measured by previous studies. The circular velocity at the solar position, yielded by our RC is 234.04 ± 0.08 (stat.) ± 1.36 (sys.) km s -1 , again in great consistency with other independent determinations. From the newly constructed RC, as well as constraints from other data, we have constructed a mass model for our Galaxy, yielding a mass of the dark matter halo of M 200 = (8.05 ± 1.15) × 10 11 M ⊙ with a corresponding radius of R 200 = 192.37 ± 9.24 kpc and a local dark matter density of 0.39 ± 0.03 GeV cm -3 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cloud drop number concentrations over the western North Atlantic Ocean: seasonal cycle, aerosol interrelationships, and other influential factors

Cloud drop number concentrations (N d ) over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) are generally highest during the winter (DJF) and lowest in summer (JJA), in contrast to aerosol proxy variables (aerosoloptical depth, aerosol index, surface aerosol mass concentrations, surface cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations) that generally peak inspring (MAM) and JJA with minima in DJF. Using aircraft, satellite remote sensing, ground-based in situ measurement data, and reanalysis data, we characterize factors explaining the divergent seasonal cycles and furthermore probe into factors influencing N d on seasonal timescales. The results can be summarized well by features most pronounced in DJF, including features associated with cold-air outbreak (CAO) conditions such as enhanced values of CAO index, planetary boundary layer height (PBLH),low-level liquid cloud fraction, and cloud-top height, in addition to winds aligned with continental outflow. Data sorted into high- and low-N d days in each season, especially in DJF, revealed that all of these conditions were enhanced on the high-N d days, including reduced sea level pressure and stronger wind speeds. Although aerosols may be more abundant in MAM and JJA, the conditions needed to activate those particles into cloud droplets are weaker than in colder months, which is demonstrated by calculations of the strongest (weakest) aerosol indirect effects in DJF (JJA) based on comparing N d to perturbations in four different aerosol proxy variables (total and sulfate aerosol optical depth, aerosol index, surface mass concentration of sulfate). We used three machine learning models and up to 14 input variables to infer about most influential factors related to N d for DJF and JJA, with the best performance obtained with gradient-boosted regression tree (GBRT) analysis. The model results indicated that cloud fraction was the most important input variable, followed by some combination (depending on season) of CAO index and surface mass concentrations of sulfate and organic carbon. Future work is recommended to further understand aspects uncovered here such as impacts of free tropospheric aerosol entrainment on clouds, degree of boundary layer coupling, wet scavenging, and giant CCN effects on aerosol–N d relationships, updraft velocity, and vertical structure of cloud properties such as adiabaticity that impact the satellite estimation of N d .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification using Deep Ensembles for Decision Making in Cyber-Physical-Human Systems

In this paper and its companion, Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, Robison et al., we examine an approach to quantifying model uncertainty with the aim of increasing the trustworthiness of computational models in human-machine interactions. In Differential Equation Approximation Using Gradient-Boosted Quantile Regression, we focus on gradient-boosted decision trees, while in this one, we give more details about deep ensembles. Uncertainty quantification is crucial for building trustworthy autonomous decision-making agents in human-machine teams. There are two types of uncertainties: aleatoric and epistemic. The former is related to the inherent stochasticity (noise) of the process, whereas the latter is associated with the lack of knowledge or representation capability of models, such as neural networks. By lack of knowledge, we mean the model’s inability to accurately predict outputs for all possible inputs. The aleatory uncertainty can be estimated fairly easily with, for example, filters, whereas epistemic uncertainty is challenging to compute. This paper uses deep ensembles to quantify both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. It can act as an uncertainty-aware surrogate transition model for decision-making frameworks. "Uncertainty-aware" means that the surrogate transition model should make predictions along with confidence in those predictions. In the context of decision-making, the transition models are ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Since ODEs can be simulated to make one-step or multi-step predictions, a good surrogate model for them should perform reasonably well in both modes. In a multi-step approach, the trajectory sampling method TS∞ was used to propagate uncertainty over multiple steps. The cartpole dynamical system was selected to demonstrate the ability of deep ensembles as good surrogate transition models for decision-making frameworks. The deep ensembles modeled the dynamics of cartpole ODEs and made uncertainty-aware predictions in single-step and multi-step transition modes.

CPH systems↗
NASA NTRS2026

Incremental Learning for Passive Microwave Precipitation Retrievals using Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder

Spaceborne passive microwave (PMW) radiometry is central to global precipitation monitoring, yet retrieval uncertainties remain substantial, particularly for cross-track sounders whose variable footprints and channel configurations are optimized for atmospheric temperature and moisture profiling rather than precipitation. Consequently, existing operational products often exhibit angular-dependent biases, limited effective swath utilization, unrealistic rainfall probability distributions, and systematic misclassification of precipitation phase. These limitations are further compounded by the scarcity of globally accurate and representative precipitation observations, as training data from the Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) are spatially sparse, lack uniform global coverage, and exhibit heterogeneous error characteristics across precipitation regimes. To address these challenges, this study presents a supervised retrieval algorithm that incrementally trains an ensemble of extreme gradient-boosted decision trees by augmenting base learners with pre-training on reanalysis data and post-training on coincident DPR and CPR observations matched with the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). By transferring prior information from reanalysis to posterior constraints from radar observations and adopting a sequential detection–estimation strategy for precipitation phase and rate retrieval, the proposed approach yields retrievals across the full ATMS swath that are largely free from persistent deficiencies in current Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave operational products. In particular, the method resolves bimodal artifacts in rainfall retrievals and mitigates systematic high-latitude snowfall biases, including overestimation across the Arctic and underestimation across the Antarctic. Validation against independent Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) data over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) further demonstrates improved performance in precipitation phase detection and rate estimation relative to both reanalysis and current GPM PMW products.

Mahyar Garshasbi↗