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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Learning to Simulate Aerosol Dynamics with Graph Neural Networks

Aerosol effects on climate, weather, and air quality depend on characteristics of individual particles, which are tremendously diverse and change in time. Particle-resolved models are the only models able to capture this diversity in particle physiochemical properties, and these models are computationally expensive. As a strategy for accelerating particle-resolved microphysics models, we introduce Graph-based Learning of Aerosol Dynamics (GLAD) and use this model to train a surrogate of the particle-resolved model PartMC-MOSAIC. GLAD implements a Graph Network-based Simulator (GNS), a machine learning framework that has been used to simulate particle-based fluid dynamics models. In GLAD, each particle is represented as a node in a graph, and the evolution of the particle population over time is simulated through learned message passing. Here, we demonstrate our GNS approach on a simple aerosol system that includes condensation of sulfuric acid onto particles composed of sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, and water. A graph with particles as nodes is constructed, and a graph neural network (GNN) is then trained using the model output from PartMC-MOSAIC. The trained GNN can then be used for simulating and predicting aerosol dynamics over time. Results demonstrate the framework's ability to accurately learn chemical dynamics and generalize across different scenarios, achieving efficient training and prediction times. We evaluate the performance across four scenarios, highlighting the framework's robustness and adaptability in modeling aerosol microphysics and chemistry.

aerosol chemistry dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2026

User Manual - HydraGNN v5.0: Distributed Implementation of Multi-Tasking Graph Neural Networks

This document serves as the user manual for HydraGNN v5.0, a scalable graph neural network (GNN) architecture for simultaneous prediction of multiple target properties using multi-task learning (MTL). This version of HydraGNN has been developed primarily to support the development, training, and deployment of predictive graph-based deep learning (DL) models for atomistic materials modeling. HydraGNN is templated over 13 message-passing policies, including invariant models (GIN, PNA, PNAPlus, GAT, MFC, CGCNN, SAGE, SchNet, DimeNet) and equivariant models (EGNN, PNAEq, PAINN, MACE), and supports distributed training via distributed data parallelism (DDP), DeepSpeed, and Fully Sharded Data Parallelism (FSDP) on leadership-class supercomputers. Although HydraGNN can be applied to problems beyond atomistic materials modeling, its current use is confined to homogeneous graphs. Additional capabilities include machine-learned interatomic potentials with energy-conserving forces, General, Powerful, and Scalable Graph Transformer (GraphGPS) global attention, periodic boundary conditions, hyperparameter optimization, mixed-precision training, and uncertainty quantification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics

Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cartesian equivariant representations for learning and understanding molecular orbitals

Qualitative and quantitative orbital properties such as bonding/antibonding character, localization, and orbital energies are critical to how chemists understand reactivity, catalysis, and excited-state behavior. Despite this, representations of orbitals in deep learning models have been very underdeveloped relative to representations of molecular geometries and Hamiltonians. Here, we apply state-of-the-art equivariant deep learning architectures to the task of assigning global labels to orbitals, namely energies characterizations, given the molecular coefficients from Hartree–Fock or density functional theory. The architecture we have developed, the Cartesian Equivariant Orbital Network (CEONET), shows how molecular orbital coefficients are readily featurized as equivariant node features common to all graph-based machine-learned potentials. We find that CEONET performs well at predicting difficult quantitative labels such as the orbital energy and orbital entropy. Furthermore, we find that the CEONET representation provides an intuitive latent space for differentiating orbital character for the qualitative assignment of e.g. bonding or antibonding character. In addition to providing a useful representation for further integrating deep learning with electronic structure theory, we expect CEONET to be useful for automatizing and interpreting the results of advanced electronic structure methods such as complete active space self-consistent field theory. In particular, the ability of CEONET to infer multireference character via the orbital entropy paves the way toward the machine-learned selection of active spaces.

chemical reactions↗
DOE OSTI2026

Universal Workflow Language and Software Enable Geometric Learning and FAIR Scientific Protocol Reporting

Written language and conventional data structures for representing scientific procedures suffer from low process detail, often fail to accurately represent protocols, and lack universality. New strategies for the handling of experimental data are needed to provide viable process information for both humans and machines. In this work, we present the universal workflow language (UWL) and interface (UWLi). UWL is a findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR)-compatible, graph-based data architecture that can capture arbitrary scientific procedures through workflow representation, and UWLi is an accompanying software package for building, manipulating, and interpreting UWL entries. The UWL format was found to be highly effective in identifying deficiencies in the reported process details of high-impact, peer-reviewed scientific journals, and in simulated scenarios, the graph format was shown to be more effective than conventional methods in predictively modeling the outcome of diverse scientific protocols. Implementation of UWL could enable more accurate scientific communication and more impactful process datasets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-Based Attention Mechanisms for Solving the AC Optimal Power Flow Problem in Electrical Power Networks

With the increasing complexity and data availability in modern power systems, learning-based approaches to AC Optimal Power Flow (AC OPF) have garnered significant attention. In particular, the structure of smart grids lends itself naturally to graph-based representations, where Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) can capture spatial and relational dependencies. This paper investigates attention-based GNN architectures tailored to heterogeneous graph representations of electric grids. We evaluate two major paradigms: relational attention, which distinguishes between edge types during message passing, and meta-path attention, which captures high-level semantics through multi-hop, typed paths. Using a large corpus of public AC OPF scenarios, we benchmark representative models of each type of attention. Our results demonstrate the benefits of heterogeneous attention-based models in accurately capturing grid dynamics; heterogeneous attention models achieve superior performance in both standard and perturbed settings. The findings highlight the importance of semantic-aware architectures for improving prediction robustness and interpretability in power system applications.

Trigui, Ali [Qubit Engineering Inc.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Attention-based functional-group coarse-graining: a deep learning framework for molecular prediction and design

Machine learning (ML) offers considerable promise for the design of new molecules and materials. In real-world applications, the design problem is often domain-specific, and suffers from insufficient data, particularly labeled data, for ML training. In this study, we report a data-efficient, deep-learning framework for molecular discovery that integrates a coarse-grained functional-group representation with a self-attention mechanism to capture intricate chemical interactions. Our approach exploits group-contribution concepts to create a graph-based intermediate representation of molecules, serving as a low-dimensional embedding that substantially reduces the data demands typically required for training. Using a self-attention mechanism to learn the subtle but highly relevant chemical context of functional groups, the method proposed here consistently outperforms existing approaches for predictions of multiple thermophysical properties. In a case study focused on adhesive polymer monomers, we train on a limited dataset comprising only 6,000 unlabeled and 600 labeled monomers. The resulting chemistry prediction model achieves over 92% accuracy in forecasting properties directly from SMILES strings, exceeding the performance of current state-of-the-art techniques. Furthermore, the latent molecular embedding is invertible, enabling the design pipeline to automatically generate new monomers from the learned chemical subspace. We illustrate this functionality by targeting several properties, including high and low glass transition temperatures (Tg), and demonstrate that our model can identify new candidates with values that surpass those in the training set. The ease with which the proposed framework navigates both chemical diversity and data scarcity offers a promising route to accelerate and broaden the search for functional materials.

Han, Ming [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)]↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Dynamic Hierarchical Attention Framework for Multimodal Malware Detection

The increasing use of Android in the worldwide mobile ecosystem has come along with a significant increase in advanced malware, highlighting the critical necessity for efficient, scalable, and adaptable detection systems. Despite recent advancements in machine learning improving malware detection, the majority of current solutions are limited to one, two, or three data modalities, hence neglecting the comprehensive behavioral spectrum of contemporary multi-vector threats. This thesis presents the first comprehensive multimodal framework for Android malware detection, which combines textual, time-series (temporal), graph-based (structural), and visual information using an innovative hierarchical attention mechanism and Dynamic Fusion Controller (DFC). Our methodology consistently classifies and processes modalities as either sequential or structural, facilitating content-adaptive weighting and resilient cross-modal representation learning. We advance the implementation of cutting-edge time series techniques, such as MiniRocket, for malware detection, hence creating new opportunities for temporal analysis in cybersecurity. Comprehensive experimental assessment shows that our framework performs exceptionally well, with 99.46% classification accuracy and 97.15% detection accuracy, significantly outperforming existing approaches through effective multimodal integration and hierarchical attention mechanisms.

Nazmin, Tamanna↗
DOE OSTI2026

Graph Identification of Proteins in Tomograms (GRIP-Tomo) 2.0: Topologically aware classification for proteins

Cryo-electron tomography (cryo-ET) enables structural characterization of biomolecules under near-native conditions. Existing approaches for interpreting the resulting three-dimensional volumes are computationally expensive and have difficulty interpreting density associated with small proteins/complexes. To explore alternate approaches for identifying proteins in cryo-ET data we pursued a Graph Network and topologically invariant approach. Here, we report on a fast algorithm that classifies particles by searching for nuances of evolutionarily conversed motifs and the geometrical characteristics of protein structure. GRIP-Tomo 2.0 is a machine-learning pipeline that extracts interpretable topological features of protein structures within noisy experimental backgrounds. Compared to version 1.0, the new pipeline includes three upgrades that significantly improve performance including synthetic tomogram generation simulating realistic noise, graph-based persistent feature extraction as protein fingerprints, and high-performance computing acceleration. GRIP-Tomo 2.0 achieves over 90% accuracy in classifying between proteins and noise using both real and synthetic datasets which represents a foundational step toward advancing cryo-ET workflows and empowering automated visual proteomics.

Li, Chengxuan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

ACES-GNN: can graph neural network learn to explain activity cliffs?

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have revolutionized molecular property prediction by leveraging graph-based representations, yet their opaque decision-making processes hinder broader adoption in drug discovery. This study introduces the Activity-Cliff-Explanation-Supervised GNN (ACES-GNN) framework, designed to simultaneously improve predictive accuracy and interpretability by integrating explanation supervision for activity cliffs (ACs) into GNN training. ACs, defined by structurally similar molecules with significant potency differences, pose challenges for traditional models due to their reliance on shared structural features. By aligning model attributions with chemist-friendly interpretations, the ACES-GNN framework bridges the gap between prediction and explanation. Validated across 30 pharmacological targets, ACES-GNN consistently enhances both predictive accuracy and attribution quality for ACs compared to unsupervised GNNs. Our results demonstrate a positive correlation between improved predictions and accurate explanations, offering a robust and adaptable framework to better understand and interpret ACs. This work underscores the potential of explanation-guided learning to advance interpretable artificial intelligence in molecular modeling and drug discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Quantum–Classical Graph Transformers for Efficient Sentiment Analysis

Quantum Machine Learning (QML) offers a promising paradigm that leverages quantum computing principles to develop efficient and expressive models for learning from complex and structured data. Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) and artificial intelligence (AI) have demonstrated capabilities in understanding, generating, and reasoning over linguistic and multimodal information. In this work, we present the Quantum Graph Transformer (QGT), a hybrid quantum–classical architecture that extends graph transformer capabilities through quantum self-attention. The QGT models variable-length sentences as token graphs, where both the embedding encoding and the self-attention mechanisms are implemented using parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs), enabling efficient contextual learning with significantly fewer trainable parameters. We train QGT using both fully connected and 𝑘 -nearest-neighbor graph structures and evaluate it on five benchmark sentiment-classification datasets. Experimental results show that QGT consistently achieves higher or comparable accuracy to existing quantum NLP models and outperforms a Classical Graph Transformer (CGT) baseline with identical architecture, achieving 29.4 × fewer parameters while requiring 3–5 × fewer samples to reach comparable performance. These findings highlight the potential of graph-based quantum models as scalable and data-efficient architectures for natural language understanding.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Commutative Algebra Modeling in Materials Science – A Case Study on Metal–Organic Frameworks (MOFs)

Metal-organic frameworks (MOFs) are a class of important crystalline and highly porous materials whose hierarchical geometry and chemistry hinder interpretable predictions in materials properties. Commutative algebra is a branch of abstract algebra that has been rarely applied in data and material sciences. We introduce the first ever commutative algebra modeling and prediction in materials science. Specifically, category-specific commutative algebra (CSCA) is proposed as a new framework for MOF representation and learning. It integrates element-based categorization with multiscale algebraic invariants to encode both local coordination motifs and global network organization of MOFs. These algebraically consistent, chemically aware representations enable compact, interpretable, and data efficient modeling of MOF properties such as Henry’s constants and uptake capacities for common gases. Compared to traditional geometric and graph-based approaches, CSCA achieves comparable or superior predictive accuracy while substantially improving interpretability and stability across data sets. By aligning commutative algebra with the chemical hierarchy, the CSCA establishes a rigorous and generalizable paradigm for understanding structure and property relationships in porous materials and provides a nonlinear algebra-based framework for data-driven material discovery.

Khaemba, Caleb S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

PySIDT: Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees for Molecular Property Prediction

Accurate molecular property prediction is important across all fields of chemistry. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become increasingly popular due to their ability to train automatically, avoiding the incredibly tedious process of constructing and extending traditional property estimation schemes. However, DNNs require large amounts of training data, are challenging to interpret, require large amounts of memory to load even during inference, and have severe difficulties incorporating qualitative chemical knowledge, which are often desired for molecular property prediction tasks. Here, in this study, we present PySIDT (https://github.com/zadorlab/PySIDT), a software for training and running inference on Subgraph Isomorphic Decision Trees (SIDTs). SIDTs are graph-based decision trees made of nodes associated with molecular substructures. Inference is done by descending target molecular structures down the decision tree to nodes with matching subgraph isomorphic substructures and making predictions based on the final (most specific) nodes matched. SIDTs scale down well to dataset sizes much smaller than is feasible for DNNs. As trees of molecular substructures, SIDTs are inherently readable and easy to visualize, making them easy to analyze. They are also straightforward to extend and retrain, facilitate uncertainty estimation, and enable easy integration of expert knowledge. We demonstrate the SIDT approach discussing its application to a diverse range of molecular prediction tasks: rate coefficient estimation, diffusion coefficient estimation, thermochemistry estimation, transition state bond stretch prediction, p K a prediction, stability of molecular structures, stability of surface structures, and prediction of surface lateral interaction energetics. Additionally, we demonstrate the power of the SIDT algorithms in two direct learning curve vanilla comparisons with the popular DNN-based software Chemprop and the popular gradient boosted trees-based software XGBoost on enthalpy of formation and rate coefficient prediction tasks. In particular, in the enthalpy of formation case, vanilla PySIDT is able to outperform vanilla Chemprop and XGBoost across the full range of training/validation set sizes out to 11,560 data points.

Johnson, Matthew Sean [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting Masquerade Attacks in Controller Area Networks Using Graph Machine Learning

Modern vehicles rely on a myriad of electronic control units (ECUs) interconnected via controller area networks (CANs) for critical operations. Despite their ubiquitous use and reliability, CANs are susceptible to sophisticated cyberattacks, particularly masquerade attacks, which inject false data that mimic legitimate messages at the expected frequency. These attacks pose severe risks such as unintended acceleration, brake deactivation, and rogue steering. Traditional intrusion detection systems (IDS) often struggle to detect these subtle intrusions due to their seamless integration into normal traffic. This paper introduces a novel framework for detecting masquerade attacks in the CAN bus using graph machine learning (ML). We hypothesize that the integration of shallow graph embeddings with time series features derived from CAN frames enhances the detection of masquerade attacks. We show that by representing CAN bus frames as message sequence graphs (MSGs) and enriching each node with contextual statistical attributes from time series, we can enhance detection capabilities across various attack patterns compared to using graph-based features only. Our method ensures a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of CAN frame interactions, improving robustness and efficiency. Extensive experiments on the ROAD dataset validate the effectiveness of our approach, demonstrating statistically significant improvements in the detection rates of masquerade attacks compared to a baseline that uses graph-based features only as confirmed by Mann-Whitney U and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests (p < 0.05) .

Marfo, William [Univ. of Texas, El Paso, TX (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-based Reversible Evaluation and Tangents Library

GRETL is a C++ library for evaluation, re-evaluation and algorithmic differentiation of functional operations on an arbitrary computational graph with limited memory usage. Similar to popular machine learning frameworks in Python, like PyTorch and JAX, it tracks and stores both operations and output data as functions are evaluated. Once this composition of functions is built up, the entire chain of operations can be back propagated to compute sensitivities of the final result with respect to any number of inputs. In contrast to most machine learning applications, memory usage becomes the bottleneck for back propagation in many physics applications, especially for time-dependent PDEs. Dynamic check pointing becomes essential. An important distinguishing feature of GRETL is its ability to limit the maximum memory usage by automatically dynamic checkpointing the data output for each graph operation (see Wang, Moin, Iaccarino, 2009). During backpropagation, parts of the graph that are no longer in memory are automatically re-evaluated from upstream checkpointed states as needed for derivative sensitivity calculations (or more precisely, for vector-Jacobian products). GRETL is particularly beneficial for applications, such as coupled multi-physics, where deriving adjoint-based sensitivities and managing checkpoint memory across modules becomes onerous. Cases which can be readily handled by the GRETL library include: different time-integration algorithms per physics (e.g., coupled predictor-corrector algorithms, IMEX, etc.), sub-cycling, asynchronous integrators, state dependent timestep sizes, iterative solvers and coupling algorithms, controller algorithms, and more.

Tupek, MichaelR [Lawrence Livermore National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model-based Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Improved Physical Security Design: A Prototype

Prior work in FY24 developed an adversarial AI agent aid in path analysis of physical protection systems. This agent, trained using a model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, was able to successfully learn the most vulnerable path in facilities. It was able to extend the current state of practice for physical protection design by exhibiting dynamic behavior based on current environmental conditions. Whereas PathTrace largely performs a static, graph-based analysis, the AI agent was able to make decisions based on relative position in the facility, current conditions (was the adversarial agnet discovered?), and proximity to secondary targets. The agent demonstrated some novel capabilities, but had limitations that need to be resolved before it can be used for production purposes. For example, the adversarial agent generalizes poorly and takes a relatively long time to train. Nonetheless, there is still considerable promise for developing the adversarial agent further in order to explore even richer, more dynamic behaviors (e.g., adversary motivations, environmental debris, and more). This work considers a complementary idea; development of a planning agent. The planning agent is envisioned as an auto-complete-like tool that can help accelerate security system design by human experts. The agent would respect existing barriers and sensors placed by a human expert while offering cost-effective suggestions (i.e., implicitly balancing effectiveness with cost) to improve the design. The goal is for this agent to be part of an expert’s toolbox, not to totally upend the current state-of-practice, or to displace human experts. The ultimate goal would be concurrent training of both the adversarial and planning agent together, to learn entirely through self-play. This would represent an entirely new way of performing system deign. We selected a hierarchical, model-based reinforcement learning algorithm to serve as the planning agent. This is an extension of concepts used in the prior FY24 adversarial agent work. There, we had a single agent acting an environment. Here, we have two different sub-agents (policies), working together, to form a complete agent. There is a manager policy, which can select abstract goals on slower time scales, and a worker, which performs primitive actions to reach goals selected by the manager. It is worth noting that this class of algorithm is challenging to work with. From our understanding, our work is one of the first successful uses of model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) in nuclear energy1 , and likely the first hierarchical model-based reinforcement learning application in nuclear energy. Further, this work is one of the first known attempts to apply AI to perform a design tasks in nuclear energy. Consequently, there were significant implementation challenges and the bulk of the work was focused on successful implementation and algorithm design. The results presented here are very low technology readiness level as a consequence of the lack of related literature, but still represent a significant step forward in the pursuit of applied AI for design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

SENTRA: A Modular Computational Graph Framework for Critical Mineral and Materials Supply Chains: Part I: Network Construction Latent-Quantity Estimation, and Temporal Graph Forecasting

Global supply chains for critical minerals and materials are complex, evolving networks of countries, products, production stages, and trade relationships. Existing analytical approaches are limited by fragmented data and static network representations that do not capture the dynamic production dependencies linking raw materials, intermediate products, and final goods across multiple countries. Trade and production statistics provide only a partial view of domestic production, inventories, and material flows, making it difficult to identify indirect sourcing pathways, hidden dependencies, and embedded foreign exposures. This paper introduces the Supply Chain Exposure Network Tracking and Risk Assessment (SENTRA) framework, a modular graph-based computational framework for constructing, analyzing, and forecasting dynamic supply chain networks. As the first paper in a three-part methodological series, it establishes the computational foundation of SENTRA by constructing a temporal attributed multi-relational graph whose nodes represent product–country pairs and whose edges encode observed trade and within-country value-chain relationships. Statistical estimation and constrained optimization recover latent production, final demand, and product input dependency coefficients while enforcing economic accounting constraints. Graph-derived exposure measures quantify direct, transshipment, value-chain, and multi-hop supply chain dependencies independently of the forecasting model. A temporal graph forecasting architecture based on a relational graph neural network then forecasts the evolution of the graph under mass-balance constraints with distribution-free conformal uncertainty quantification. Validation on the global aluminum supply chain shows that the learned graph representations recover economically meaningful supply chain structure, accurately forecast out-of-sample trade relationships, and produce well-calibrated prediction intervals. Subsequent papers apply this computational foundation to exposure assessment, disruption analysis, and scenario-based policy analysis, and extend the framework to multimaterial supply chain modeling and decision support.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗