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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling of periodic great earthquakes on the San Andreas fault: Effects of nonlinear crustal rheology

We analyze the cycle of great earthquakes along the San Andreas fault with a finite element numerical model of deformation in a crust with a nonlinear viscoelastic rheology. The viscous component of deformation has an effective viscosity that depends exponentially on the inverse absolute temperature and nonlinearity on the shear stress; the elastic deformation is linear. Crustal thickness and temperature are constrained by seismic and heat flow data for California. The models are for anti plane strain in a 25-km-thick crustal layer having a very long, vertical strike-slip fault; the crustal block extends 250 km to either side of the fault. During the earthquake cycle that lasts 160 years, a constant plate velocity v(sub p)/2 = 17.5 mm yr is applied to the base of the crust and to the vertical end of the crustal block 250 km away from the fault. The upper half of the fault is locked during the interseismic period, while its lower half slips at the constant plate velocity. The locked part of the fault is moved abruptly 2.8 m every 160 years to simulate great earthquakes. The results are sensitive to crustal rheology. Models with quartzite-like rheology display profound transient stages in the velocity, displacement, and stress fields. The predicted transient zone extends about 3-4 times the crustal thickness on each side of the fault, significantly wider than the zone of deformation in elastic models. Models with diabase-like rheology behave similarly to elastic models and exhibit no transient stages. The model predictions are compared with geodetic observations of fault-parallel velocities in northern and central California and local rates of shear strain along the San Andreas fault. The observations are best fit by models which are 10-100 times less viscous than a quartzite-like rheology. Since the lower crust in California is composed of intermediate to mafic rocks, the present result suggests that the in situ viscosity of the crustal rock is orders of magnitude less the rock viscosity determined in the laboratory.

Reches, Ze'ev↗
NASA NTRS1983

The rupture process and asperity distribution of three great earthquakes from long-period diffracted P-waves

The variation of maximum earthquake size along the subduction zones has been interpreted as a variation in the seismic coupling ostensibly related to the mechanical conditions of the fault zone. Great differences are noted between the seismographs of the three great earthquakes whose rupture processes are presently considered: in the Kurile Islands (1963), The Rat Islands (1965) and Alaska (1964). On-scale long period P waves were recorded in all cases. Source time functions are deconvolved from the observed periods. It is concluded that maximum earthquake size is related to the asperity distribution on the fault. The subduction zones with the largest earthquakes have very large asperities, as in the Alaskan case, while the zones with the smaller great earthquakes, such as the Kurile Islands, have smaller scattered asperities.

Ruff, L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

GRACE gravitational measurements of tsunamis after the 2004, 2010, and 2011 great earthquakes

The 2004 Sumatra, 2010 Maule, and 2011 Tohoku great earthquakes triggered tsunamis as large as a few decimeters over a few 100 km in the open ocean. The transient ocean mass redistribution propagating as tsunamis changed the Earth’s gravity field enough to perturb the GRACE satellites’ orbits at ~ 500 km above the surface. The on-board microwave ranging system detected inter-satellite acceleration anomalies of up to 1.0–4.0 nm/s2. There is good agreement between GRACE measurements and tsunami models for the three events. Complementarily to buoys, ocean bottom pressure sounders, and satellite altimeters, GRACE is sensitive to the long-wavelength spatial scale of tsunamis and provides an independent source of information for assessing alternate early earthquake and tsunami models. Our study demonstrates an innovative way of applying GRACE and GRACE Follow-On data to detect transient geophysical mass changes which cannot be observed by the conventional monthly Level-2 and mascon solutions.

Khosro Ghobadi-Far↗
NASA NTRS2013

Source Parameter Inversion for Recent Great Earthquakes from a Decade-long Observation of Global Gravity Fields

We quantify gravity changes after great earthquakes present within the 10 year long time series of monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity fields. Using spherical harmonic normal-mode formulation, the respective source parameters of moment tensor and double-couple were estimated. For the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, the gravity data indicate a composite moment of 1.2x10(exp 23)Nm with a dip of 10deg, in agreement with the estimate obtained at ultralong seismic periods. For the 2010 Maule earthquake, the GRACE solutions range from 2.0 to 2.7x10(exp 22)Nm for dips of 12deg-24deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, the estimated scalar moments range from 4.1 to 6.1x10(exp 22)Nm, with dips of 9deg-19deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2012 Indian Ocean strike-slip earthquakes, the gravity data delineate a composite moment of 1.9x10(exp 22)Nm regardless of the centroid depth, comparing favorably with the total moment of the main ruptures and aftershocks. The smallest event we successfully analyzed with GRACE was the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake with M(sub 0) approx. 5.0x10(exp 21)Nm. We found that the gravity data constrain the focal mechanism with the centroid only within the upper and lower crustal layers for thrust events. Deeper sources (i.e., in the upper mantle) could not reproduce the gravity observation as the larger rigidity and bulk modulus at mantle depths inhibit the interior from changing its volume, thus reducing the negative gravity component. Focal mechanisms and seismic moments obtained in this study represent the behavior of the sources on temporal and spatial scales exceeding the seismic and geodetic spectrum.

Parameter Inversion↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Sensors Observations of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What We Learned from the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

The lessons learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) will affect our future observations and an analysis is the main focus of this presentation. Multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research is presented in our study of the phenomena preceding major earthquakes Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which been reported by others in connections with earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation; temperature; concentration of electrons in the ionosphere; radon/ion activities; and atmospheric temperature/humidity [Ouzounov et al, 2011]. We used the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of several possible paradigms [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011] to interpret our observations. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of three different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere, ionosphere the ground surface several days before the March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake Namely: (i) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; (ii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations; and (iii) The change in the foreshock sequence (rate, space and time); Our results show that on March 8th, 2011 a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed and an anomaly developed near the epicenter with largest value occurring on March 11 at 07.30 LT. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere there was also observed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. We use the Japanese GPS network stations and method of Radio Tomography to study the spatiotemporal structure of ionospheric perturbations, and to distinguish ionospheric responses to processes of EQ preparation against the effects of other factors. The 2-D snapshots of the electron density over Japan showed abnormal increase over the maximum stress during the night, a few hours before the main shock. Our results from recording atmospheric and ionospheric conditions during the earthquake indicate the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere and ionospheres occurring consistently over regions of maximum stress near the epicenter. Due to their long duration (hours and days) and spatial appearance (only over the Sendai region) these results do not appear to be caused by meteorological or magnetic activity. They reveal the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the earthquake, which indicates new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004).

Ouzonounov, D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Postseismic Deformation after the 1964 Great Alaskan Earthquake: Collaborative Research with Goddard Space Flight Center

The purpose of this project was to carry out GPS observations on the Kenai Peninsula, southern Alaska, in order to study the postseismic and contemporary deformation following the 1964 Alaska earthquake. All of the research supported in this grant was carried out in collaboration with Dr. Steven Cohen of Goddard Space Flight Center. The research funding from this grant primarily supported GPS fieldwork, along with the acquisition of computer equipment to allow analysis and modeling of the GPS data. A minor amount of salary support was provided by the PI, but the great majority of the salary support was provided by the Geophysical Institute. After the expiration of this grant, additional funding was obtained from the National Science Foundation to continue the work. This grant supported GPS field campaigns in August 1995, June 1996, May-June and September 1997, and May-June 1998. We initially began the work by surveying leveling benchmarks on the Kenai peninsula that had been surveyed after the 1964 earthquake. Changes in height from the 1964 leveling data to the 1995+ GPS data, corrected for the geoid-ellipsoid separation, give the total elevation change since the earthquake. Beginning in 1995, we also identified or established sites that were suitable for long-term surveying using GPS. In the subsequent annual GPS campaigns, we made regular measurements at these GPS marks, and steadily enhanced our set of points for which cumulative postseismic uplift data were available. From 4 years of Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, we find significant spatial variations in present-day deformation between the eastern and western Kenai peninsula, Alaska. Sites in the eastern Kenai peninsula and Prince William Sound move to the NNW relative to North America, in the direction of Pacific-North America relative plate motion. Velocities decrease in magnitude from nearly the full plate rate in southern Prince William Sound to about 30 mm/yr at Seward and to about 5 mm/yr near Anchorage. In contrast, sites in the western Kenai peninsula move to the SW, in a nearly trenchward direction, with a velocity of about 20 mm/yr. The data are consistent with the shallow plate interface offshore and beneath the eastern Kenai and Prince William Sound being completely locked or nearly so, with elastic strain accumulation resulting in rapid motion in the direction of relative plate motion of sites in the overriding plate. The velocities of sites in the western Kenai, along strike to the southwest, are opposite in sign with those predicted from elastic strain accumulation. These data are incompatible with a significant locked region in this segment of the plate boundary. Trenchward velocities are found also for some sites in the Anchorage area. We interpret the trenchward velocities as being caused by a continuing postseismic transient from the 1964 great Alaska earthquake.

Freymueller, Jeffrey T.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Crustal deformation in great California earthquake cycles

Periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike slip earthquakes is computed for the following model: A depth L (less than or similiar to H) extending downward from the Earth's surface at a transform boundary between uniform elastic lithospheric plates of thickness H is locked between earthquakes. It slips an amount consistent with remote plate velocity V sub pl after each lapse of earthquake cycle time T sub cy. Lower portions of the fault zone at the boundary slip continuously so as to maintain constant resistive shear stress. The plates are coupled at their base to a Maxwellian viscoelastic asthenosphere through which steady deep seated mantle motions, compatible with plate velocity, are transmitted to the surface plates. The coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model. It is argued that the model gives a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading, including the time dependence of deep slip and crustal stress build up throughout the earthquake cycle, than do simpler kinematic models in which loading is represented as imposed uniform dislocation slip on the fault below the locked zone.

Li, Victor C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Crustal deformation in Great California Earthquake cycles

A model in which coupling is described approximately through a generalized Elsasser model is proposed for computation of the periodic crustal deformation associated with repeated strike-slip earthquakes. The model is found to provide a more realistic physical description of tectonic loading than do simpler kinematic models. Parameters are chosen to model the 1857 and 1906 San Andreas ruptures, and predictions are found to be consistent with data on variations of contemporary surface strain and displacement rates as a function of distance from the 1857 and 1906 rupture traces. Results indicate that the asthenosphere appropriate to describe crustal deformation on the earthquake cycle time scale lies in the lower crust and perhaps the crust-mantle transition zone.

Li, Victor C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Crustal Deformation and the Seismic Cycle Across the Kodiak Islands, Alaska

The Kodiak Islands are located approximately 120 to 250 km from the Alaska-Aleutian Trench - and are within the southern extent of the 1964 Prince William Sound (M(sub w) = 9.2) earthquake rupture zone. Here we report new campaign GPS results (1993-2001) from northern Kodiak Island. The rate and orientation of the horizontal velocities, relative to a fixed North America, range from 25.3 plus or minus 1.4 mm/yr at N32.9 deg. W plus or minus 2.5 to 8.5 plus or minus 1.0 mm/yr at N59.7 deg. W plus or minus 6.5 deg. In addition to the northern Kodiak data, we analyzed data from three southern Kodiak Island stations. The inland stations from both the northern and southern networks indicate a counterclockwise rotation of the velocity vectors. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the difference between the Pacific-North American plate motion and the orientation of the down going slab would lead to 4-8 mm/yr of left-lateral slip above the unlocked, down-dip portion of the main thrust zone. The northern and southern Kodiak geodetic data are consistent with a model that includes the viscoelastic response to (1) a downgoing Pacific plate interface that is locked at shallow depths, (2) local coseismic slip in the 1964 earthquake, and (3) interseismic creep down dip from the seismogenic zone. Based on the pre-1964 and post-1944 earthquake history, as well as the pattern of interseismic earthquakes across the plate boundary zone, we hypothesize that in southern Kodiak some strain is released in moderate to large earthquakes between the occurrences of great earthquakes like the 1964 event.

Sauber, Jeanne↗
NASA NTRS2006

Crustal Deformation and the Seismic Cycle across the Kodiak Islands, Alaska

The Kodiak Islands are located approx.120 to 250 km from the Alaska-Aleutian Trench and are within the southern extent of the 1964 Prince William Sound (M(sub W) = 9.2) earthquake rupture and aftershock zone. Here we report new campaign GPS results (1993-2001) from northeastern Kodiak and reprocessed GPS results (1993-1997) from southwestern Kodiak. The rate and orientation of the horizontal velocities, relative to a fixed North America, range from 29.7 +/- 1.7 mm/yr at N30.3degW +/- 3.3deg, located approx.120 km from the deepest point of the trench, to 8.0 +/- 1.3 mm/yr at N62.4degW +/- 9.3deg, located approx.230 km from the trench. We evaluated alternate models of coseismic and interseismic slip to test the importance of the mechanisms that account for surface deformation rates. Near the Gulf of Alaska coastal region of Kodiak the horizontal velocity can be accounted for primarily by the viscoelastic response to plate motion and a locked main thrust zone (MTZ), down-dip creep, and to a lesser extent, slip in the 1964 earthquake. Further inland the dominant mechanisms that account for post-1964 uplift rates are time-dependent, down-dip creep and a locked MTZ; for the horizontal velocity component southwest translation of western Kodiak may be important as well. Based on the pre-1964 and post-1964 earthquake pattern of interseismic earthquakes, we suggest that between the occurrences of great earthquakes like the 1964 event, more moderate to large earthquakes occur in the southwestern Kodiak region than near northeastern Kodiak .

Sauber, Jeanne↗
NASA NTRS1999

Crustal Uplift in the Southcentral Alaska Subduction Zones: A New Analysis and Interpretation of Tide Gauge Observations

We have examined the sea level height tide records at seven tide gauge sites in the region of southcentral Alaska that were affected by the 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake to determine the history of crustal uplift subsequent to the earthquake. There is considerable variation in the behavior depending on the location of the site relative to the 1964 rupture. At Seward, on the eastern side of the Kenai Peninsula we find a slow uplift that is consistent with elastic strain accumulation while at Seldovia and Nikiski on the western side of the Kenai we find a persistent rapid uplift of about 1 cm/yr that most likely represents a long term transient response to the earthquake, but which cannot be sustained over the expected recurrence interval for a great earthquake of several hundred years. Further to the southwest, at Kodiak, we find evidence that the rate of uplift, which is still several mm/yr, has slowed significantly over the past three and a half decades. To the east of the Kenai Peninsula we find subsidence at Cordova and an uncertain behavior at Valdez. At both of these sites there is a mathematically significant time-dependence to the uplift behavior, but the data confirming this time dependence are not as convincing as at Kodiak. At Anchorage, to the north there is little evidence of vertical motion since the earthquake. We compare these long term tide gauge records to recent GPS observations. In general there is reasonable consistency except at Anchorage and Cordova where the GPS measurement indicate somewhat more rapid uplift and subsidence, respectively.

Cohen, Steven C.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Gravitational Changes of the Earth's Free Oscillation From Earthquakes: Theory and Feasibility Study Using GRACE Inter‐Satellite Tracking

GRACE satellites have detected regional‐scale preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic gravity changes associated with great earthquakes during the GRACE era (2002‐2017). Earthquakes also excite global‐scale transient gravity changes associated with free oscillations that may be discerned for a few days. In this study, we examine such global gravity changes due to Earth's free oscillations and quantify how they affect GRACE measurements. We employ the normal mode formalism to synthesize the global gravity changes after the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and simulate the (gravitational) free oscillation signals manifested in the GRACE K‐band ranging (KBR) measurements. Using the Kaula orbit perturbation theory, we show how GRACE inter‐satellite distances are perturbed through a complex coupling of eigenfrequencies of the normal modes with the Earth's rotation rate and the GRACE satellites' orbital frequency. It is found that a few gravest normal modes can generate range‐rate perturbations as large as 0.2 μm/s, which are comparable to actual errors of GRACE KBR ranging and accelerometer instruments. Wavelet time‐frequency analysis of the GRACE KBR residual data in December 2004 reveals the existence of a significant transient signal after the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. This transient signal is characterized by a frequency of ~0.022 mHz that could be potentially associated with the largest excitation due to the “football” mode of the Earth's free oscillation. However, the results are also affected by low‐frequency noise of the GRACE accelerometers. Improved space‐borne gravitational instrumentation may open new opportunities to study the Earth's interior and earthquakes independently from global seismological analysis.

Ghobadi-Far, Khosro↗
NASA NTRS1986

The Nazca-South American convergence rate and the recurrence of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake

The seismic slip rate along the Chile Trench estimated from the slip in the great 1960 earthquake and the recurrence history of major earthquakes has been interpreted as consistent with the subduction rate of the Nazca plate beneath South America. The convergence rate, estimated from global relative plate motion models, depends significantly on closure of the Nazca - Antarctica - South America circuit. NUVEL-1, a new plate motion model which incorporates recently determined spreading rates on the Chile Rise, shows that the average convergence rate over the last three million years is slower than previously estimated. If this time-averaged convergence rate provides an appropriate upper bound for the seismic slip rate, either the characteristic Chilean subduction earthquake is smaller than the 1960 event, the average recurrence interval is greater than observed in the last 400 years, or both. These observations bear out the nonuniformity of plate motions on various time scales, the variability in characteristic subduction zone earthquake size, and the limitations of recurrence time estimates.

Stein, S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Co-Seismic Mass Displacement and its Effect on Earth's Rotation and Gravity

Mantle processes often involve large-scale mass transport, ranging from mantle convection, tectonic motions, glacial isostatic adjustment, to tides, atmospheric and oceanic loadings, volcanism and seismicity. On very short time scale of less than an hour, co-seismic event, apart from the "shaking" that is the earthquake, leaves behind permanent (step-function-like) displacements in the crust and mantle. This redistribution of mass changes the Earth's inertia tensor (and hence Earth's rotation in both length-of-day and polar motion), and the gravity field. The question is whether these effects are large enough to be of any significance. In this paper we report updated calculation results based on Chao & Gross. The calculation uses the normal mode summation scheme, applied to over twenty thousand major earthquakes that occurred during 1976-2002, according to source mechanism solutions given by the Harvard Centroid Moment Tensor catalog. Compared to the truly large ones earlier in the century, the earthquakes we study are individually all too small to have left any discernible signature in geodetic records of Earth rotation or global gravity field. However, their collective effects continue to exhibit an extremely strong statistical tendencies, conspiring to decrease J2 and J22 while shortening LOD, resulting in a rounder and more compact Earth. Strong tendency is also seen in the earthquakes trying to "nudge" the Earth rotation pole towards approx. 140 deg.E, roughly opposite to the observed polar drift direction. Currently, the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) is measuring the time-variable gravity to high degree and order with unprecedented accuracy. Our results show that great earthquakes such as the 1960 Chilean or 1964 Alaskan events cause gravitational field changes that are large enough to be detected by GRACE.

Chao, B. F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Viscoelastic Postseismic Rebound to Strike-Slip Earthquakes in Regions of Oblique Plate Convergence

According to the slip partitioning concept, the trench parallel component of relative plate motion in regions of oblique convergence is accommodated by strike-slip faulting in the overriding continental lithosphere. The pattern of postseismic surface deformation due to viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and asthenosphere following a major earthquake on such a fault is modified from that predicted from the conventual elastic layer over viscoelastic halfspace model by the presence of the subducting slab. The predicted effects, such as a partial suppression of the postseismic velocities by 1 cm/yr or more immediately following a moderate to great earthquake, are potentially detectable using contemporary geodetic techniques.

Cohen, Steven C.↗
NASA NTRS1989

1960 Chile - New estimate of polar motion excitation

A recent reanalysis of the International Latitude Serivce (ILS) polar motion data-day has been processed using Kalman filtering techniques to generate the polar motion excitation function over the time-span from 1960 to 1965. The resulting excitation function has been examined for the effects of 1960 Chile in an attempt to determine experimentally how large earthquake affect polar motion. The resulting upper bound of about 75 x 10 to the 22nd N-m for a 10-deg dip (about 36 x 10 to the 22nd N-m for 20-deg dip) is consistent with results obtained from previous seismic studies, including a recent normal mode excitation result. Following future great earthquakes, monitoring of polar motion by space-based techniques such as VLBI should continue at high temporal resolution for several weeks in order to directly measure the rheological parameters of the upper mantle.

Slade, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Crustal Deformation in Southcentral Alaska: The 1964 Prince William Sound Earthquake Subduction Zone

This article, for Advances in Geophysics, is a summary of crustal deformation studies in southcentral Alaska. In 1964, southcentral Alaska was struck by the largest earthquake (moment magnitude 9.2) occurring in historical times in North America and the second largest earthquake occurring in the world during the past century. Conventional and space-based geodetic measurements have revealed a complex temporal-spatial pattern of crustal movement. Numerical models suggest that ongoing convergence between the North America and Pacific Plates, viscoelastic rebound, aseismic creep along the tectonic plate interface, and variable plate coupling all play important roles in controlling both the surface and subsurface movements. The geodetic data sets include tide-gauge observations that in some cases provide records back to the decades preceding the earthquake, leveling data that span a few decades around the earthquake, VLBI data from the late 1980s, and GPS data since the mid-1990s. Geologic data provide additional estimates of vertical movements and a chronology of large seismic events. Some of the important features that are revealed by the ensemble of studies that are reviewed in this paper include: (1) Crustal uplift in the region that subsided by up 2 m at the time of the earthquake is as much as 1 m since the earthquake. In the Turnagain Arm and Kenai Peninsula regions of southcentral Alaska, uplift rates in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake reached 150 mm/yr , but this rapid uplift decayed rapidly after the first few years following the earthquake. (2) At some other locales, notably those away the middle of the coseismic rupture zone, postseismic uplift rates were initially slower but the rates decay over a longer time interval. At Kodiak Island, for example, the uplift rates have been decreasing at a rate of about 7mm/yr per decade. At yet other locations, the uplift rates have shown little time dependence so far, but are thought not to be sustainable throughout the several hundred year recurrence time for great earthquake. The nearly 10 mm/yr uplift rate at Seldovia on the Kenai Peninsula is an example.

Cohen, Steven C.↗