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DOE OSTI2021

Block Tectonics across Western Tibet and Multi-Millennial Recurrence of Great Earthquakes on the Karakax Fault

We report that fault slip rates are critical to quantify continental deformation. Those along the Karakax fault (northwestern Altyn Tagh Fault: ATF) have been debated, even though it is one of Tibet's most outstanding active faults. At Taersa, using LiDAR measurements of terrace and fan riser offsets (~6 to ~500 m) and 10 Be/ 26 Al dating of alluvial surfaces (<210 ka), we obtain a late Quaternary slip rate of ~2.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr. This doubles the ~2.6 ± 0.5 mm/yr rate time span found to the east and west. We interpret the ~150 km-long, free-faced rupture along the fault to be that of the M ~ 7.6 event felt in Hotan in 1882. Characteristic slip (~6 m) during four large earthquakes since ~10 ka implies a ~2500 ± 500 years return time. A ~3 mm/yr rate is consistent with the ~80 km offset of the Karakax river since uplift of the West Kunlun range and sediment deposition in the Tarim foreland accelerated, ~24 Ma ago. The faster slip rate (~10.5 mm/yr) on the central ATF matches the sum of those along the reactivated West Tibetan terrane boundaries (Karakax and Longmu-Gozha Co faults) at the Uzatagh triple junction (~36°N, 83°E). The abrupt termination and altitude drop of the Karakorum range where the Longmu Co and Karakorum faults meet (Angmong junction), also reflect triple junction kinematics. Such localized changes account for the rise of the Karakorum and West Kunlun ranges and support lithospheric block tectonics rather than diffusely distributed deformation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probing Slow Earthquakes With Deep Learning

Abstract Slow earthquakes may trigger failure on neighboring locked faults that are stressed sufficiently to break, and slow slip patterns may evolve before a nearby great earthquake. However, even in the clearest cases such as Cascadia, slow earthquakes and associated tremor have only been observed in intermittent and discrete bursts. By training a convolutional neural network to detect known tremor on a single seismic station in Cascadia, we isolate and identify tremor and slip preceding and following known larger slow events. The deep neural network can be used for the detection of quasi‐continuous tremor, providing a proxy that quantifies the slow slip rate. Furthermore, the model trained in Cascadia recognizes tremor in other subduction zones and also along the San Andreas Fault at Parkfield, suggesting a universality of waveform characteristics and source processes, as posited from experiments and theory.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The age and potential causes of the giant Green Lake Landslide, Fiordland, New Zealand

Abstract Landslide deposits preserved in the geological record afford opportunities to better inform hillslope and seismic hazard and risk models, particularly in regions where observational records are short. In the Southern Alps of New Zealand, small coseismic landslides are frequent, but the geological record preserves several instances of more substantial (> 1 km 3 ) but infrequent mass failures. With an estimated volume of 27 km 3 , the giant Green Lake Landslide represents one of the largest subaerial landslides on Earth. Previous work has suggested this deep-seated mass movement was most likely triggered by high-intensity seismic shaking, but that local structural weakness and/or glacial debuttressing may help to explain the anomalously large failure volume. Resolving the potential contribution of the latter is important given predictions concerning alpine deglaciation in the coming decades to centuries. Key to resolution are secure chronologies of landslide emplacement and past glacier change. Here we present in situ cosmogenic 10 Be exposure ages from the Green Lake Landslide that suggest an emplacement age of 15.5 ± 0.7 ka. Recent work shows that glacial retreat in the region was underway by 19 ka, indicating that the Green Lake Landslide was emplaced 3–4 kyr after the onset of glacier retreat. Given the geometry of the former confining valley glacier, we expect that the deglaciation-landslide age gap is closer to the upper end of this estimate. If correct, this conclusion places greater weight on the roles of local geological structure and/or a great earthquake as factors contributing to the exceptionally large volume of this event.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simultaneous inference of plate boundary stresses and mantle rheology using adjoints: large-scale 2-D models

SUMMARY Plate motions are a primary surface constraint on plate and mantle dynamics and rheology, plate boundary stresses and the occurrence of great earthquakes. Within an optimization method, we use plate motion data to better constrain uncertain mantle parameters. For the optimization problem characterizing the maximum a posteriori rheological parameters we derive gradients using adjoints and expressions to approximate the posterior distributions for stresses within plate boundaries. We apply these methods to a 2-D cross section from the western to eastern Pacific, with temperature distributions and fault zone geometries developed primarily from seismic and plate motion data. We find that the best-fitting stress exponent, n, is about 2.8 and the yield stress about 100 MPa or less. The normal stress on the interplate fault zones is about 100 MPa and the shear stresses about 10 MPa or less.

Rudi, Johann (ORCID:0000000265639265)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2020

New Opportunities to Study Earthquake Precursors

The topic of earthquake prediction has a long history, littered with failed attempts. Part of the challenge is that possible precursory signals are usually reported after the event, and the systematic relationships between potential precursors and main events, should they exist, are unclear. Furthermore, several recent studies have shown the potential of new approaches to simultaneously detect earthquake foreshocks and slow-slip phenomena through ground deformation, seismic, and gravitational transients—weeks to months before large subduction zone earthquakes. The entire international community of earthquake researchers should be engaged in deploying instrumentation, sharing data in real time, and improving physical models to resolve the extent to which slow slip events and earthquake swarms enhance the likelihood (or not) for later, larger earthquakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

EQSIM: Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

The great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 is one of the most recognized, and sobering, demonstrations of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February 2023, these events still present a significant danger to life and economic security. To mitigate the potential devastation of future earthquakes and better prepare for these inevitable events, researchers are turning to high-performance computers to simulate the underlying geophysical processes and accurately quantify associated risks to critical infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Panel Session 4 and 15: Japan Fukushima Daiichi D and D Update and Technological Challenges at Japan Fukushima Daiichi D and D and Update on Nuclear Overview and Development in Japan - Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Sessions 4 and 15 represent a two-part panel series that discusses progress and challenges associated with cleanup at Fukushima. Severe limitations on availability of original panelists from Japan due to strict restrictions put in place to alleviate the spread of coronavirus necessitated changes to both panels. The result was a significantly modified panel for Session 04 (shown above) and the elimination of all panelists for Session 15. The 4 and 15 Panel Sessions provide an overview of activities related to both the progress and challenges of cleanup and decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) in Japan. Five panelists discussed perspectives of the cleanup following a Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) video showing the progress on site since the devastating Great East Earthquake and tsunami that caused the explosions at three of the six reactors on the site. Three of the five panelists discussed on-going work being performed for the effort, while the other two provided expert perspectives of on strategic efforts at the site. The panel was attended by over 80 technologists and policy makers spanning the globe and was opened by Dr. Monica Regalbuto of Idaho National Laboratory and a short video provided by TEPCO. The video described changes at the site that spanned the cleanup efforts from stabilizing water intrusion into the contaminated reactor buildings to construction of new administrative facilities. The video explained the processes underway to retrieve spent fuel rods and challenges in retrieval of the compromised fuel debris. The video highlighted working condition improvements that included establishment of rest housing and a small convenience store on the site, and the rollback of protective equipment around the site due to decreases contamination. Panelists with presentations: Revision of 'the Mid-and-Long-Term Road-map towards the Decommissioning of TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station' (Paul Dickman); Sharing UK experience at Fukushima Daiichi (Adrian Simper); SRNL Japan (Andrew Fellinger); ABLE's Initiative to Dismantle the Exhaust Stack (Daniel Walter); JAEA R and D in Fukushima (Tokio Fukahori); TEPCO - Overview and Update of the Fukushima Decommissioning Process (Monica Regalbuto); Toshiba's Involvement in the Decommissioning of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (Yasuhiro Yuguchi); Remote Dismantling of the Exhaust Stack At Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS (Takashi Okutsu)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (Casha) "Complete" Catalog of Earthquakes

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) greatly benefit from reliable earthquake catalogs. Central Asia, while rich in seismic monitoring history, reports a fraction of their earthquake data to international data collection centres. Furthermore, since the collapse of Soviet Union until now, monitoring and data collection efforts in Central Asia have not been centralized, making monitoring and reporting uneven and disconnected in this time period. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has undertaken a multi-year effort to systematically work with national seismic monitoring and data centres and seismic networks in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan to compile a unified seismological bulletin for Central Asia. In tandem with this effort, an earthquake catalog that is processed to be PSHA ready was also generated. The processing for this effort included further duplicate identification and removal, magnitude harmonization and catalog completeness analyses. This report describes the “complete” PSHA-ready earthquake catalog, including the completeness intervals that were applied.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

EQSIM and RAJA: Enabling Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure

Nearly 120 years ago, the great “San Francisco” earthquake of 1906 provided a stark and sobering view of the havoc that can be caused by the sudden and violent movement of Earth’s tectonic plates. According to USGS, the rupture along the San Andreas fault extended 296 miles (447 kilometers) and shook so violently that the motion could be felt as far north as Oregon and east into Nevada. The estimated 7.9-magnitude quake and subsequent fires decimated the major metropolis and surrounding areas: buildings turned to ruins, hundreds of thousands of people left homeless, and a death toll exceeding 3,000. Today, as evidenced by the catastrophic 7.8-magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey in February of 2023, large earthquakes still present a significant potential danger to life and economic security as researchers work to develop ways to better understand earthquake phenomena and quantify associated risks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

U.S. Efforts in Support of Examinations at Fukushima Daiichi - November 2025 Meeting Notes

Fifteen years have passed since the March 11, 2011, the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) triggered a tsunami that inundated the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi or 1F) and led to severe accidents in multiple units at the plant. During these fifteen years since these events, Daiichi forensics examinations and evaluations have revealed many insights for enhancing the safety of nuclear power plants worldwide. However, uncertainties remain regarding the events after the GEJE. Additional Daiichi forensics information is required to inform future Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activi- ties conducted by the plant owner, Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Hold- ings). This forensics information also has important implications for the safety and operation of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. A collaborative U.S. and Japanese effort, which includes approximately 50 experts in reactor safety and plant operations, was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (U.S. DOE-NE) to identify Daiichi examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. This collaborative effort, which is beneficial to the U.S. and Japan, continues as Japan moves forward with D&D activities.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Pattern Recognition of Synthetical Complete Earthquake Catalog

Exploring the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquake activity, especially earthquake migration of fault systems, can greatly to understand the basic mechanics of earthquakes and the assessment of earthquake risk. By establishing a three-dimensional strike-slip fault model, to derive the stress response and fault slip along the fault under regional stress conditions. Our study helps to create a long-term, complete earthquake catalog. We modelled Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks for pattern recognition of the synthetical earthquake catalog. The performance of the models was compared using the mean-square error (MSE). Our results showed clearly the application of LSTM showed a meaningful result of 0.08% in the MSE values. Our best model can predict the time and magnitude of the earthquakes with a magnitude greater than Mw = 6.5 with a similar clustering period. These results showed conclusively that applying LSTM in a spatiotemporal series prediction provides a potential application in the study of earthquake mechanics and forecasting of major earthquake events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Earthquake Magnitude With DAS: A Transferable Data–Based Scaling Relation

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is a promising technique to improve the rapid detection and characterization of earthquakes. Previous DAS studies mainly focus on the phase information but less on the amplitude information. In this study, we compile earthquake data from two DAS arrays in California, USA, and one submarine array in Sanriku, Japan. We develop a data-driven method to obtain the first scaling relation between DAS amplitude and earthquake magnitude. Our results reveal that the earthquake amplitudes recorded by DAS in different regions follow a similar scaling relation. The scaling relation can provide a rapid earthquake magnitude estimation and effectively avoid uncertainties caused by the conversion to ground motions. Our results show that the scaling relation appears transferable to new regions with calibrations. The scaling relation highlights the great potential of DAS in earthquake source characterization and early warning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fiber-Optic Sensing for Earthquake Hazards Research, Monitoring, and Early Warning

The use of fiber‐optic sensing systems in seismology has exploded in the past decade. Despite an ever‐growing library of ground‐breaking studies, questions remain about the potential of fiber‐optic sensing technologies as tools for advancing if not revolutionizing earthquake‐hazards‐related research, monitoring, and early warning systems. A working group convened to explore these topics; we comprehensively examined the application of fiber optics in various aspects of earthquake hazards, encompassing earthquake source processes, crustal imaging, data archiving, and technological challenges. There is great potential for fiber‐optic systems to advance earthquake monitoring and understanding, but to fully unlock their capabilities requires continued progress in key areas of research and development, including instrument testing and validation, increased dynamic range for applications focused on larger earthquakes, and continued improvement in subsurface and source imaging methods. A key current stumbling block results from the lack of clear data archiving requirements, and we propose an initial strategy that balances data volume requirements with preserving key data for a broad range of future studies. In addition, we demonstrate the potential for fiber‐optic sensing to impact monitoring efforts by documenting the data completeness in a number of long‐term experiments. Finally, we outline the features of a instrument testing facility that would enable progress toward reliable and standardized distributed acoustic sensing data. Overcoming these current obstacles would facilitate progress in fiber‐optic sensing and unlock its potential application to a broad range of earthquake hazard problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Validation of earthquake ground-motion models in southern California, USA, using precariously balanced rocks

Accurate estimates of earthquake ground shaking rely on uncertain ground-motion models derived from limited instrumental recordings of historical earthquakes. A critical issue is that there is currently no method to empirically validate the resultant ground-motion estimates of these models at the timescale of rare, large earthquakes; this lack of validation causes great uncertainty in ground-motion estimates. Here, we address this issue and validate ground-motion estimates for southern California utilizing the unexceeded ground motions recorded by 20 precariously balanced rocks. We used cosmogenic 10Be exposure dating to model the age of the precariously balanced rocks, which ranged from ca. 1 ka to ca. 50 ka, and calculated their probability of toppling at different ground-motion levels. With this rock data, we then validated the earthquake ground motions estimated by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) seismic-source characterization and the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 ground-motion models. We found that no ground-motion model estimated levels of earthquake ground shaking consistent with the observed continued existence of all 20 precariously balanced rocks. The ground-motion model I14 estimated ground-motion levels that were inconsistent with the most rocks; therefore, I14 was invalidated and removed. At a 2475 year mean return period, the removal of this invalid ground-motion model resulted in a 2−7% reduction in the mean and a 10−36% reduction in the 5th−95th fractile uncertainty of the ground-motion estimates. Our findings demonstrate the value of empirical data from precariously balanced rocks as a validation tool for removing invalid ground-motion models and, in turn, reducing the uncertainty in earthquake ground-motion estimates.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere

Discrimination of underground explosions from naturally occurring earthquakes and other anthropogenic sources is one of the fundamental challenges of nuclear explosion monitoring. In an operational setting, the number of events that can be thoroughly investigated by analysts is limited by available resources. The capability to rapidly screen out events that can be robustly identified as not being explosions is, therefore, of great potential benefit. Nevertheless, possible mis-classification of explosions as earthquakes currently limits the use of screening methods for verification of test-ban treaties. Moment tensors provide a physics-based classification tool for the characterization of different seismic sources and have enabled the advent of new techniques for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions. Following normalization and projection of their six-degree vectors onto the hypersphere, existing screening approaches use spherically symmetric metrics to determine whether any new moment tensor may have been an explosion. Here, we show that populations of moment tensors for both earthquakes and explosions are anisotropically distributed on the hypersphere. Distributions possessing elliptical symmetry, such as the scaled von Mises–Fisher distribution, therefore provide a better description of these populations than the existing spherically symmetric models. We describe a method that uses these elliptical distributions in combination with a Bayesian classifier to achieve successful classification rates of 99 per cent for explosions and 98 per cent for earthquakes using existing catalogues of events from the western United States. The 1983 May 5 Crowdie underground nuclear test and 2018 July 20 DAG-1 deep-borehole chemical explosion are the only two explosions out of 140 that are incorrectly classified. Application of the method to the 2006–2017 nuclear tests in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea yields 100 per cent identification rates and we provide a simple routine MTid for general usage. The approach provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion and can be built into monitoring workflows that rely on simultaneously assessing multiple different discrimination metrics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Proximal Observations of Epicentral Infrasound Generated by Shallow Low-Magnitude Earthquakes in the Permian Basin, West Texas

Infrasound generated by earthquakes and explosions is generally detected at receivers at epicentral distances of hundreds to thousands of kilometers. However, proximal (<50 km) observations are especially important for low-magnitude earthquakes and low-yield explosions that may not generate signals capable of being detected at great ranges. Here, in this study, we present on the signals detected on an infrasound array 3 km away from two M L 2.9 earthquakes in the Permian Basin of west Texas. Local infrasound (LIS), generated at receivers during the passage of seismic waves, was detected following each earthquake. Epicentral infrasound (EIS), created at or near the epicenter and propagating away as a sound wave, was also detected. Array processing methods show that the EIS signals arrive from the same direction as the earthquake epicenters and at acoustic speeds. To our knowledge, these are the first observations of laterally propagating EIS at proximal ranges following an earthquake of any magnitude.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining induced seismicity hazard on the Neck of the Desert fault for the proposed Iron Mountain, Utah carbon sequestration project

As significantly more focus is placed on carbon sequestration as a means to help mitigate the progression of climate change, the need to adequately characterize an injection target for its induced seismicity potential becomes more apparent. In the Iron Mountain project in Southern Utah, a single fault is identified in the Neck of the Desert near Iron Mountain. The dip of the fault is unknown, and the geomechanical stability of the fault (i.e., distribution of Coulomb failure functions (CFFs)) is highly dependent upon the dip. For some dips, such as 15 degrees, the hazard from injection is low. For other dips, such as 75 degrees, the hazard is high. Another key consideration is the depth of penetration of the fault. Should the fault not penetrate the stress and pressure perturbed region from injection, it will not be induced to fail. Thus, understanding the dip and the depth of penetration of the fault will greatly improve our understanding of the likelihood of inducing an earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗