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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Application of GOTHIC to Groundwater Transport Analysis - 20152

Migration of pollutants and hazardous wastes, potentially containing radioactive isotopes, via groundwater transport is a concern at most waste cleanup sites. Predictive analysis can be used to evaluate mitigating actions intended to minimize impact on the environment and public exposure. GOTHIC is a multipurpose thermal hydraulics code that is used extensively in the nuclear industry for design, licensing and operation evaluations. It combines the capabilities of typical one-dimensional system codes and the essential features of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes for three-dimensional analysis. There are other codes that are specifically developed for groundwater transport analysis and the results presented here are consistent with prior analyses. However, GOTHIC has some unique features that offer advantages for applications related to nuclear waste. Most importantly, it has been developed and maintained under a Quality Assurance program in compliance with the requirements of 10CFR50 Appendix B [2] and applicable portions of ASME NQA-1 [3] since 1995. Available GOTHIC capabilities that make the code especially useful for groundwater transport of nuclear materials include: - Tracking of any number of tracer elements for contaminants and other species of interest; - Radioactive decay and progeny of tracer elements; - Adsorption/desorption of tracer elements; - Tracking of any number of dissolved gases; - Release and absorption for dissolved gases; - Vapor phase tracking; - Non-Newtonian fluid modeling. The general porous body modeling approach makes GOTHIC well suited to groundwater transport analysis. The multi-region modeling approach used by GOTHIC simplifies model construction for regions of varying hydrologic characteristics and focuses the computational effort on regions of particular interest while simultaneously capturing the macroscopic response and any feedback effects across the larger domain. The applicability of GOTHIC to groundwater transport applications is demonstrated by comparing code results with available analytic or semi-analytic solutions for groundwater behavior. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contaminant Transport Parameters for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 1

This document presents a summary and framework of available transport data and other information directly relevant to the development of the groundwater transport model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa (PM) corrective action units (CAU). This model is referred to as the “PM CAU transport model” in this document. Central and Western PM are two areas of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) that historically were used for underground nuclear testing. These nuclear tests resulted in groundwater contamination in the vicinity of the underground test areas. As a result, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Environmental Management (EM) Nevada Program is currently conducting a corrective action investigation (CAI) of the PM underground test areas. This work is a part of the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Activity in accordance with the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) (1996, as amended).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Nature and State of Groundwater Contamination at the Nevada National Security Site: What Have We Learned from Decades of Groundwater Analysis? - 20337

The regulatory framework for remediating radionuclide contamination from underground nuclear testing at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) is based on a combination of characterization and modeling studies, monitoring, and institutional controls [1]. Currently, tritium is the largest contributor (∼90%) to the estimated 44.6 million-curie radionuclide inventory resulting from underground testing [2]. Because of its short half-life (12.32 years), its relative contribution reduces below 10% of the total radiologic inventory over the next 120 years as a result of radioactive decay. Although tritium levels are observed well above the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) in groundwater, other radionuclides are well below their MCLs except within the nuclear test near-field (nuclear test cavity and chimney) environment. In fact, most device-derived radionuclides are below their MCL in groundwater even in samples collected from this near-field environment. The distribution of radionuclides following the nuclear detonation greatly influences the availability of potential contaminants for groundwater transport. Tritium is initially distributed in the gas phase, later as tritiated water in steam, and finally as liquid water, and is available to groundwater transport away from the near-field environment. Other radionuclides that are mobile in groundwater are {sup 14}C, {sup 36}Cl, {sup 99}Tc, and {sup 129}I though their radiologic inventory is small when compared to tritium. Many radionuclides (e.g. U, Pu, Am) are incorporated to a significant extent into the melt glass at the bottom of the cavity and are accessible to groundwater primarily through the slow process of glass dissolution. These radionuclides are also adsorbed to the surfaces of the crushed rock within the cavity and chimney which limits their migration in groundwater. Although colloid facilitated transport of radionuclides at the NNSS has been observed [3], radionuclide concentrations decrease with time and migration distances due to desorption and colloid filtration processes. Current studies indicate that radionuclides associated with colloids are unlikely to migrate downgradient from NNSS underground nuclear tests at concentrations above the SDWA MCL [4][5]. The results of over 50 years of sampling, along with an understanding of these post detonation processes, indicate that tritium is the only contaminant of concern downgradient of testing and that even tritium will not exceed its MCL in groundwater after ∼120 years. Although other longer-lived radionuclides may continue to be released slowly from the near-field environment they will likely never reach levels exceeding their MCLs in groundwater downgradient of the NNSS. Groundwater monitoring will continue to verify these observations. (authors)

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DOE OSTI2023

(Project 18-15502) Reducing Uncertainty in Radionuclide Transport Prediction Using Multiple Environmental Tracers (Final Report)

In order to successfully site and design a nuclear waste disposal facility, DOE scientists are required to show safe containment of the radioactive waste for up to 1 million years. A significant hurdle to accurately and convincingly demonstrating disposal safety is predicting the fate of radioactive elements once they enter the groundwater system surrounding the repository. These predictions are often made with computer models, which contain accurate physics of groundwater movement and chemical reactions that occur during groundwater flow. As computer power increases, the physics and chemistry of these computer simulators can become more and more realistic and the physically based error decreases. However, the ability of these computer models to provide accurate predictions in a specific place, over long time periods, requires the scientists and engineers to know the subsurface properties of the Earth that control groundwater movement. In particular, groundwater scientists and engineers need to know the groundwater fluid velocity, which can change over time and strongly vary with location within the groundwater system. Because the Earth’s subsurface cannot be directly seen, and can only be sampled at drilling locations, the properties of the groundwater system are never known completely, and computer models of groundwater transport will always have some amount of uncertainty. This project’s principal goal was to use chemicals and isotope “tracers”, which have been introduced to the groundwater system by natural processes over long time periods, to help inform computer models of the groundwater velocity and subsurface properties. The goal was to calculate how much better predictions of groundwater transport were when these “tracers” were used to inform the computer models.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comoparison of Slit Trench and Engineered Trench 3D Vadose Zone Conceptual Models

In the next revision of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) Performance Assessment (PA), radionuclide groundwater transport from slit (ST) and engineered trenches (ET) will be simulated using 3-dimensional PORFLOW models representing the vadose zone. In total, the conceptual framework will aim to model 29 total trenches with a degree of conservatism that provides a high level of confidence in meeting performance objectives. The implementation of generic conceptual models allows for a reasonable number of simulation scenarios, thereby reducing the chances of errors and enabling a better one-to-one comparison between the results, while still capturing the most important features of each trench. The current investigation seeks to understand if a generic trench model based on the general ET footprint can justifiably be used for representing both STs and ETs while maintaining a reasonable degree of conservatism. In this process, the groundwater transport of several key radionuclides was simulated for both ET and ST geometries and the flux-to-the-water-table profiles were compared. For all radionuclides simulated, the ET geometry is shown to be conservative (i.e., produces the highest peak flux to the water table).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utilizing Environmental Tracers to Reduce Groundwater Flow and Transport Model Parameter Uncertainties

Abstract Non‐uniqueness in groundwater model calibration is a primary source of uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport predictions. In this study, we investigate the ability of environmental tracer information to constrain groundwater model parameters. We utilize a pilot point calibration procedure conditioned to subsets of observed data including: liquid pressures, tritium ( 3 H), chlorofluorocarbon‐12 (CFC‐12), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) concentrations; and groundwater apparent ages inferred from these environmental tracers, to quantify uncertainties in the heterogeneous permeability fields and infiltration rates of a steady‐state 2‐D synthetic aquifer and a transient 3‐D model of a field site located near Riverton, Wyoming (USA). To identify the relative data worth of each observation data type, the post‐calibration uncertainties of the optimal parameters for a given observation subset are compared to that from the full observation data set. Our results suggest that the calibration‐constrained permeability field uncertainties are largest when liquid pressures are used as the sole calibration data set. We find significant reduction in permeability uncertainty and increased predictive accuracy when the environmental tracer concentrations, rather than apparent groundwater ages, are used as calibration targets in the synthetic model. Calibration of the Riverton field site model using environmental tracer concentrations directly produces infiltration rate estimates with the lowest uncertainties, however; permeability field uncertainties remain similar between the environmental tracer concentration and apparent groundwater age calibration scenarios. This work provides insight on the data worth of environmental tracer information to calibrate groundwater models and highlights potential benefits of directly assimilating environmental tracer concentrations into model parameter estimation procedures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tracking Radioactive Isotopes in HVAC and Application for Hot Cell Analyses - 20155

In recent years, the surge in the number of isotope production facilities under design has increased the need to analyze isotope migration in facility Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) during normal operations and accident scenarios. These facilities are used to produce isotopes for medical, security, and industrial applications and as such are subject to license and regulatory requirements 10CFR20, 10CFR30, 10CFR50, and 10CFR70. GOTHIC, a general-purpose thermal-hydraulics software package, includes the ability to model isotopic tracers, radioactive decay and isotope migration as well as HEPA and charcoal filters for isotope retention. A GOTHIC model was developed by Zachry Nuclear Engineering (ZNE) to examine the effect of negative room pressure, HEPA filtration, and HVAC fluctuations on radiation areas, hot cells and gloveboxes. Radioactive tracers were used to simulate the concentration of spills within contaminated areas, track the migration of isotopes of interest, and determine the isotopic retention and buildup on facility HEPA filters. A variety of isotopes with concern to dose (e.g., Kr-85, Sr-90, I-131, etc.), including their decay and progeny, are included in the analysis. Negative pressures are maintained in the regions of interest by a representative central HVAC system equipped with a volumetric fan that exhausts to the environment after a series of isolation valves and HEPA filters. GOTHIC is an industry trusted tool for providing engineering solutions for a variety of applications, including fission product tracking, aerosol and particulate transport and ventilation assessments. The software provides an integrated analysis environment that includes a graphical user interface (GUI) for constructing analysis models, a numerical solver that includes parallel processing capabilities and a post-processor for evaluating simulation results. It solves the conservation equations for mass, momentum and energy for multicomponent, multi-phase flow in lumped parameter and multi-dimensional geometries (1, 2, or full 3D), including the effects of turbulence, diffusion and buoyancy. It has been developed and maintained under a Quality Assurance program in compliance with the requirements of 10CFR50 Appendix B and applicable portions of ASME NQA-1 since 1995. GOTHIC has been used for assessing both forced and natural convection conditions for a wide range of applications, including: - Tracking concentration of hazardous gases and chemicals for habitability and safety assessments - Determining ventilation and filtration requirements and optimizing location and arrangement of these systems - Room heat-up, including diverse and Flexible coping strategies for Extended Loss of AC Power (FLEX/ELAP) - Equipment Qualification (EQ) A distinctive feature of GOTHIC is the ability to track many different fields/substances in a simulation, including user defined tracer elements, in the liquid, vapor and droplet fields as well as surfaces and filters. This capability allows GOTHIC to model fission product transport and release or the removal of particulates or harmful toxins from exhaust gases using a spray scrubber or other types of filtration systems. GOTHIC also includes models for engineered equipment, such as fans, filters, charcoal filters, dryers/demisters, dampers, etc. The aerosols and other filtered material are removed or accumulated in these components. The range of aerosol and radiological applications that GOTHIC has been used for includes: - Source Term: Primary Coolant (Equilibrium) Activity; Non-Water Coolant Source/Leakage. - Conditions for Iodine Re-evolution: Sump/Suppression Pool Conditions and pH; - RWST Conditions and pH. - Isotope Removal Mechanisms: Containment Sprayed and Unsprayed Region Mixing; Charcoal Filter Heating due to Iodine decay. - Radionuclide Transport and Decay: Post-LOCA Release in containment; Transport between connected Compartments and vent systems; Groundwater transport of radionuclides. - Non-Newtonian Fluid modeling for sludge, waste tanks, etc. ADAMS ML071581053 (titled 'Best Practice Guidelines for the use of CFD in Nuclear Reactor Safety Applications') poses guidelines for applying single phase CFD codes in nuclear reactor safety problems and GOTHIC is listed as a 'tool for 3D flows' and 'dispersal and deposition of radionuclides.' The Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA) pedigree of GOTHIC is an important aspect for applications in the nuclear industry. The fundamental tracer models (convective transport, molecular and turbulent diffusion, removal mechanisms, etc.) have been verified using analytical solutions and validated against applicable separate effects tests. Also, GOTHIC has been benchmarked to many integrated effects tests, including Phebus FP (Fission Product). GOTHIC gives good agreement for the buildup and decay of fission products in Phebus Test 3. The model developed by ZNE demonstrates GOTHIC's applicability and acceptability for use in analyzing the migration and retention of radioactive isotopes and their progeny in normal operation and accident scenario analyses for isotope production facilities, hot cells, and gloveboxes. The tracer activities calculated by GOTHIC can then be used in downstream radiation transport and shielding codes like RADTRAD-NAI{sup C}, MCNP{sup R}, and MicroShield{sup R} to determine on-site and of-site doses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vadose Zone Model for U-10 West Area for Composite Analysis

The objectives of the vadose modeling for the updated Hanford Site composite analysis (CA) are to simulate the flow and transport of water and radionuclide releases from the surface to the water table and to provide radionuclide transfer rates for the plateau to river (P2R) model, version 8.3 (CP-57037, Model Package Report: Plateau to River Groundwater Transport Model, Version 8.3). Water additions include natural recharge and water discharged to the ground as a result of industrial processes associated with Hanford Site operations. Contaminant sources include radionuclides in water discharged to the ground during operations and radionuclides disposed “dry” in solid waste burial grounds or other means. The following 16 radionuclides were selected for this modeling effort: carbon-14 (C-14), chlorine-36 (Cl-36), tritium (H-3), iodine-129 (I-129), neptunium-237 (Np-237), rhenium-187 (Re-187), strontium-90 (Sr-90), technetium-99 (Tc-99), uranium-232 (U-232), uranium-233 (U-233), uranium-234 (U-234), uranium-235 (U-235), uranium-236 (U-236), uranium-238 (U-238), radium-226 (Ra-226), and thorium-230 (Th-230). The simulation time starts in 1943 and ends at 12070, which is 10,000 years after assumed Hanford Site closure in 2070.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

SRS Composite Analysis Monitoring Plan (FY2019 Model Validation)

Using a projected end-state date of 2065 (SRNS 2015b), the Savannah River Site (SRS) Composite Analysis (CA) modeling for each facility and waste site began on the inventory year assigned to it so that source depletion and radionuclide transport out of the system could be appropriately captured. Some SRS waste sites that have already achieved their end states (i.e. end-state inventories and end-state configuration) are currently contributing to the potential off-site public dose through source release, groundwater transport, discharge to on-site surface streams, and stream transport to the CA point of assessments (POAs). The inventory year assigned to these waste sites is 2002 or before. This means that SRS CA results from 2002 and beyond are a reasonable representation for these waste sites that have already achieved their end states and are currently contributing to the potential off-site public dose. The SRS Annual Environmental Report (AER) monitoring can differentiate and separate liquid pathway data allowing the data representing only waste sites at their end state to be produced. Because the SRS CA has projected reasonable end-state impacts from 2002 and beyond, and the AER monitoring can differentiate and separate operating and end-state contributions to annual liquid pathway release, an opportunity exists to use the AER monitoring data to validate the SRS CA model. The CA model validation program uses a graded and systematic approach for taking corrective action, starting with an SRS established administrative dose limit of 15 mrem/yr, below which no action is required. Based on the location of the 2010 SRS CA POAs, the only potential exposure pathway for the public is through surface water. The completion of the FY2019 CA model validation indicates that the SRS CA projected dose, while generally conservative, provides a reasonable representation of the maximum annual doses. These doses are well below the administrative limit; therefore, no additional action is required.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Validation for the FY2021 SRS Composite Analysis Monitoring Plan

Using a projected end-state date of 2065 (SRNS 2015b), the Savannah River Site (SRS) Composite Analysis (CA) modeling for each facility and waste site began on the inventory year assigned to it so that source depletion and radionuclide transport out of the system could be appropriately captured. Some SRS waste sites that have already achieved their end states (i.e., end-state inventories and end-state configuration) are currently contributing to the potential off-site public dose through source release, groundwater transport, discharge to on-site surface streams, and stream transport to the CA point of assessments (POAs). The inventory year assigned to these waste sites is 2002 or before. This means that SRS CA results from 2002 and beyond are a reasonable representation for these waste sites that have already achieved their end states and are currently contributing to the potential off-site public dose. The SRS Annual Environmental Report (AER) monitoring can differentiate and separate liquid pathway data allowing the data representing only waste sites at their end state to be produced. Because the SRS CA has projected reasonable end-state impacts from 2002 and beyond, and the AER monitoring can differentiate and separate operating and end-state contributions to annual liquid pathway release, an opportunity exists to use the AER monitoring data to validate the SRS CA model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hyperbolic Reformulation Approach to Enable Efficient Simulation of Groundwater Flow and Reactive Transport

We apply Cattaneo's relaxation approach to the one-dimensional coupled Boussinesq groundwater flow and advection-diffusion-reaction equations, commonly used in engineering applications to simulate contaminant transport in the subsurface. The diffusion-type governing equations are reformulated as a hyperbolic system, augmented by an equation that can be interpreted as a momentum balance. The hyperbolization enables an efficient unified computation of the primary variable and its gradients, for example piezometric head and unit discharge in the Boussinesq equation. An augmented Roe scheme is used to solve the hyperbolic system. The hyperbolized system of equations is studied in a set of steady state and transient test cases with idealized geometry. These test cases confirm the equivalence of the hyperbolic system to its original formulation. The larger time step size of the hyperbolic equation is verified theoretically by means of a stability analysis and numerically in the test cases. Finally, a reach-scale application of flow and transport across a river meander is considered. This application case shows that the performance of the hyperbolic relaxation approach holds for more realistic groundwater flow and transport problems, relevant to water resources management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada (Rev. 1)

This document presents the groundwater flow and transport models along with simulation forecasts needed for the purpose of developing the ensemble of contaminant boundaries (CBs) for the Central and Western Pahute Mesa (PM) corrective action units (CAUs) 101 and 102. The PM CAUs are areas of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) that were historically used for underground nuclear testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying subsurface parameter and transport uncertainty using surrogate modelling and environmental tracers

Here, we combine physics-based groundwater reactive transport modelling with machine-learning techniques to quantify hydrogeological model and solute transport predictive uncertainties. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) on a dataset of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations generated using a high-fidelity groundwater reactive transport model. Using the trained ANN as a surrogate model to reproduce the input–output response of the high-fidelity reactive transport model, we quantify the posterior distributions of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic forcing conditions using Markov chain Monte Carlo calibration against field observations of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations. We demonstrate the methodology with a model application that predicts Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) solute transport at a contaminated field site in Wyoming, United States. Our results show that including 3 H observations in the calibration dataset reduced the uncertainty in the estimated permeability field and infiltration rates, compared to calibration against hydraulic heads alone. However, predictive uncertainty quantification shows that CFC-12 transport predictions conditioned to the parameter posterior distributions cannot reproduce the field measurements. We found that calibrating the model to hydraulic head and 3 H observations results in groundwater mean ages that are too large to explain the observed CFC-12 concentrations. The coupling of the physics-based reactive transport model with the machine-learning surrogate model allows us to efficiently quantify model parameter and predictive uncertainties, which is typically computationally intractable using reactive transport models alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrologic Data for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 1

This hydrologic data document (HDD) has been prepared for Corrective Action Units (CAUs) 101 and 102, Central and Western Pahute Mesa, in order to support the development of a groundwater flow and contaminant transport model. Central and Western Pahute Mesa are two of the five CAUs on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) (formerly the Nevada Test Site [NTS]) used for underground nuclear testing (Figure 1-1). The nuclear tests resulted in groundwater contamination in the vicinity of the underground test areas. As a result, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Environmental Management (EM) Nevada Program is currently conducting a corrective action investigation (CAI) of the Pahute Mesa underground test areas. This work is a part of the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Activity in accordance with the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) (1996, as amended). The CAU groundwater flow and transport model is composed of two pieces, a flow model and a transport model, that together provide the contaminant boundary forecasts required by the FFACO. The hydrologic data necessary for the flow model portion of the CAU model are presented in this report. The transport data necessary for the transport model portion of the CAU model will be provided in a separate report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Site Composite Analysis: Comparison of One- and Three-Dimensional Simulation of Vadose Zone Transport and Transfer to Groundwater for Selected Waste Sites

The purpose of this document is to compare 1D and 3D technetium-99 (Tc-99) VZ transport and transfer rates to groundwater for five selected waste sites (two tanks, two cribs, and one trench) to demonstrate the need to consider 3D flow and transport mechanisms and commingling of contaminant plumes originating from adjacent waste sites. The waste sites selected for the comparison evaluation are the 241-A-105 Tank in the A Farms Area model, the 216-B-18 Crib and the 216-B-25 Trench in the BC Cribs and Trenches model, the 216-B-49 Crib in the B Complex model, and the 241-SX-115 Tank in the S Farms Area model. The selected waste sites all represent different disposal or leak conditions, with and without potential impacts due to release-fluid commingling, occurring at the Hanford Site Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Calibration and Uncertainty Estimation Using the Ensemble Kalman Filter with a Large Subsurface Flow and Transport Model - 20321

At routinely monitored groundwater contamination sites, periodically measured environmental conditions such as groundwater levels and contaminant concentrations are used to inform and confirm a conceptual site model (CSM) and guide the development and calibration of a numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The calibration of groundwater flow and transport models after each measurement (sampling) event can illuminate deficiencies in a CSM, identify areas where additional monitoring is warranted, and predict the behavior of the system to guide decision making. However, manual and automated (e.g. PEST) model calibration tools can be time-consuming and computationally expensive to implement after each sampling event. Perhaps as a result, such calibration tools generally utilize all available monitoring data simultaneously rather than sequentially assimilating monitoring data one sampling event at a time as the results from sampling become available. A more real-time data assimilation approach may reduce parameter uncertainty, quantify the value of additional monitoring data, and produce a usable model more quickly and with less effort. To mitigate the potential time-consuming aspects of manual and widely applied automated calibration techniques, a data assimilation algorithm called the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) was evaluated as a relatively efficient method of model calibration and uncertainty assessment via the sequential integration of monitoring data into a model. The EnKF was able to successfully and efficiently assimilate monitoring and modeling data to calibrate a complex flow and transport model at a real-world site with significant subsurface heterogeneity, uncertainty, and 12 years of monitoring data (over 4,000 individual measurements of groundwater levels and over 2,500 measurements of contaminant concentrations). Starting with an uncalibrated model data from annual sampling events were sequentially assimilated, and the resultant predication errors and estimated parameter uncertainties were tracked. After all monitoring data were assimilated, both flow and transport residuals at the end of the EnKF process were comparable to those produced via a concurrent PEST calibration effort but required fewer model simulations. Both uncertainty and prediction errors decreased over time. In a real-time application, the adequacy of the model could be assessed after each sampling event. The benefits of such a real-time approach to utilizing monitoring data include reduced costs (in the form of model updates or site characterization efforts), early flagging of possible errors in the CSM, and a reduced risk of overfitting and corresponding increased confidence in model predictions. This tool may be particularly useful compared to other calibration techniques (e.g. manual, PEST) when model runtimes are long, calibration parameters are many, or parameter uncertainty is large. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recovering the effects of subgrid heterogeneity in simulations of radionuclide transport through fractured media

Groundwater flow and contaminant transport through fractured media can be simulated using Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) models which provide a natural description of structural heterogeneity. However, this approach is computationally expensive, with the large number of intersecting fractures necessitated by many real-world applications requiring modeling simplifications to be made for calculations to be tractable. Upscaling methods commonly used for this purpose can result in some loss of local-scale variability in the groundwater flow velocity field, resulting in underestimation of particle travel times, transport resistance and retention in transport calculations. In this paper, a transport downscaling algorithm to recover the transport effects of heterogeneity is tested on a synthetic Brittle Fault Zone model, motivated by the problem of large safety assessment calculations for geological repositories of spent nuclear fuel. We show that the variability in the local-scale velocity field which is lost by upscaling can be recovered by sampling from a library of DFN transport paths, accurately reproducing DFN transport statistic distributions and radionuclide breakthrough curves in an upscaled model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗