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DOE OSTI2023

A Multi-Armed Bayesian Ordinal Outcome Utility-Based Sequential Trial with a Pairwise Null Clustering Prior

A multi-armed trial based on ordinal outcomes is proposed that leverages a flexible non-proportional odds cumulative logit model and numerical utility scores for each outcome to determine treatment optimality. This trial design uses a Bayesian clustering prior on the treatment effects that encourages the pairwise null hypothesis of no differences between treatments. A group sequential design is proposed to determine which treatments are clinically different with an adaptive decision boundary that becomes more aggressive as the sample size or clinical significance grows, or the number of active treatments decreases. A simulation study is conducted for 3 and 5 treatment arms, which shows that the design has superior operating characteristics (family wise error rate, generalized power, average sample size) compared to utility designs that do not allow clustering, a frequentist proportional odds model, or a permutation test based on empirical mean utilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural characterization of influenza group 1 chimeric hemagglutinins as broad vaccine immunogens

Chimeric hemagglutinins (cHA) appear to be promising for the design and development of universal influenza vaccines. Influenza A group 1 cHAs, cH5/1, cH8/1, and cH11/1, comprising an H1 stem attached to either an H5, H8, or H11 globular head, have been used sequentially as vaccine immunogens in human clinical trials and induced high levels of broadly protective antibodies. Using X-ray crystallography and negative-stain electron microscopy, we determined structures of cH5/1, cH8/1, and cH11/1 HAs in their apo (unliganded) and antibody Fab-bound states. Stem-reactive antibodies 3E1 and 31.b.09 recognize their cognate epitopes in cH5/1, cH8/1, and cH11/1 HAs. However, with cH5/1, the head domains are rotated by 35 to 45° around the threefold axis of the HA trimer compared to native HA with a more splayed-open conformation at the stem base. cH11/1 with 3E1 is structurally more native-like but resembles cH5/1 with 31.b.09, whereas cH8/1 with 31.b.09 exhibited a range of closed-to-open stem configurations with some separation of head and stem domains. Furthermore, all of these group 1 cHAs effectively bound a broad head trimer interface antibody and other broad stem antibodies. Thus, the cHAs exhibit structural plasticity without compromising the stem and head trimer interface epitopes for elicitation of influenza A group 1 cross-reactive antibodies.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

NASA NTRS1993

Teaching high-performance skills using above-real-time training

The above real-time training (ARTT) concept is an approach to teaching high-performance skills. ARTT refers to a training paradigm that places the operator in a simulated environment that functions at faster than normal time. It represents a departure from the intuitive, but not often supported, feeling that the best practice is determined by the training environment with the highest fidelity. This approach is hypothesized to provide greater 'transfer value' per simulation trial, by incorporating training techniques and instructional features into the simulator. Two related experiments are discussed. In the first, 25 naive male subjects performed three tank gunnery tasks on a simulator under varying levels of time acceleration (i.e., 1.0x, 1.6x, 2.0x, sequential, and mixed). They were then transferred to a standard (1.0x) condition for testing. Every accelerated condition or combination of conditions produced better training and transfer than the standard condition. Most effective was the presentation of trials at 1.0x, 1.6x, and 2.0x in a random order during training. Overall, the best ARTT group scored about 50 percent higher and trained in 25 percent less time compared to the real-time control group. In the second experiment, 24 mission-capable F-16 pilots performed three tasks on a part-task F-16A flight simulator under varying levels of time compression (i.e., 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x, and random). All subjects were then tested in a real-time environment. The emergency procedure (EP) task results showed increased accuracy for the ARTT groups. In testing (transfer), the ARTT groups not only performed the EP more accurately, but dealt with a simultaneous enemy significantly better than a real-time control group. Although the findings on an air combat maneuvering task and stern conversion task were mixed, most measures indicated that the ARTT groups performed better and faster than a real-time control group. Other implications for ARTT are discussed along with future research directions.

Guckenberger, Dutch↗

NASA NTRS2000

Assessment of Countermeasure Efficacy for Long-Term Space Missions

One of the main functions of the upcoming International Space Station (ISS) will be to provide a venue for testing proposed countermeasures for their ability to protect humans from the debilitating effects of longterm space flight. However, several limiting factors preclude an evaluation process similar to that used in clinical trials which traditionally are implemented with large sample sizes of subjects, including control groups, and with blind or double-blind application of treatments according to factorial or other balanced experimental designs. In particular, only very limited numbers of human subjects will be available for actual field testing in the ISS With no more than 125 subjects planned to fly on all ISS missions over 10 years, it is not possible to test extensive combinations of some 15-20 proposed countermeasures. Furthermore because of safety concerns and operational considerations, it is unlikely that anything other than the current best guess at the most effective countermeasure package will ever be used on ISS. In particular, control or placebos will not be allowed. In view of these limitations, historical data and groundbased or animal studies will have to be used to compensate for small sample sizes and lack of controls in the field. As a result, statistical analysis methodology will have to be developed which allows for the integration of these disparate data types into a meaningful evaluation process. The process must be sequential, providing objective rules for deciding through time whether to reject or modify an ineffective countermeasure, or whether to certify one as effective. Additional output should include performance characteristics for all relevant physiological systems, including uncertainty analyses and estimates of accept/reject decision error rates.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗