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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Shape restricted additive hazards models: Monotone, unimodal, and U‐shape hazard functions

We consider estimation of the semiparametric additive hazards model with an unspecified baseline hazard function where the effect of a continuous covariate has a specific shape but otherwise unspecified. Such estimation is particularly useful for a unimodal hazard function, where the hazard is monotone increasing and monotone decreasing with an unknown mode. A popular approach of the proportional hazards model is limited in such setting due to the complicated structure of the partial likelihood. Our model defines a quadratic loss function, and its simple structure allows a global Hessian matrix that does not involve parameters. Thus, once the global Hessian matrix is computed, a standard quadratic programming method can be applicable by profiling all possible locations of the mode. However, the quadratic programming method may be inefficient to handle a large global Hessian matrix in the profiling algorithm due to a large dimensionality, where the dimension of the global Hessian matrix and number of hypothetical modes are the same order as the sample size. We propose the quadratic pool adjacent violators algorithm to reduce computational costs. The proposed algorithm is extended to the model with a time‐dependent covariate with monotone or U‐shape hazard function. In simulation studies, our proposed method improves computational speed compared to the quadratic programming method, with bias and mean square error reductions. We analyze data from a recent cardiovascular study.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flood hazard model calibration using multiresolution model output

Riverine floods pose a considerable risk to many communities. Improving flood hazard projections has the potential to inform the design and implementation of flood risk management strategies. Current flood hazard projections are uncertain, especially due to uncertain model parameters. Calibration methods use observations to quantify model parameter uncertainty. With limited computational resources, researchers typically calibrate models using either relatively few expensive model runs at high spatial resolutions or many cheaper runs at lower spatial resolutions. This leads to an open question: is it possible to effectively combine information from the high and low resolution model runs? We propose a Bayesian emulation–calibration approach that assimilates model outputs and observations at multiple resolutions. As a case study for a riverine community in Pennsylvania, we demonstrate our approach using the LISFLOOD-FP flood hazard model. Here, the multiresolution approach results in improved parameter inference over the single resolution approach in multiple scenarios. Results vary based on the parameter values and the number of available models runs. Our method is general and can be used to calibrate other high dimensional computer models to improve projections.

multiresolution↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Database-wide hazard modelling of the onset of DIII-D tearing modes with field features

The rate of onset (hazard) of tearing modes is modelled probabilistically using statistical learning algorithms. Axisymmetric energy-density equilibrium fields are taken as raw high-dimensional input features which are reduced with principal component analysis. Signal processing of non-axisymmetric magnetics fluctuation array data provides the target information from which to learn. Model selection, visualization and calibration assessment procedures are detailed. Here, the analysis is deployed at large scale across the DIII-D tokamak database. Standard model selection criteria suggest that the energy-density post-processed feature is a better choice for modelling the onset rate compared to the non-processed equilibrium reconstruction solution. Two example applications of the learned rate function are demonstrated: (i) proximity-to-onset discharge monitoring and (ii) database analysis showing an (expected) observational global trend that the general hazard increases as a plasma performance metric increases. An important connection between the hazard function and its use as a conditional probability generator is reviewed in the Appendix.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Planetary Defense: Hazards Modeling [Slides]

Hydrocodes were quickly adopted for planetary impact simulations and are now being combined with other codes (e.g. tsunami, atmospheric transport, general circulation, etc.) for hazard assessment and quantification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing Uncertainty in Synthetic Tropical Cyclone Hazard Models for U.S. Energy Infrastructure Resilience

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are intense storms that pose a persistent and considerable risk to coastal communities and infrastructure in the global tropics and subtropics, including the United States (US). With known limitations associated with observations and high-resolution earth system models, synthetic TC models that capture a wide spectrum of storm possibilities have been developed to robustly quantify TC risk. Here we examine the simulation of various TC features in the North Atlantic relevant for US coastal risk in three synthetic TC models forced with ERA5 reanalysis: MIT, CHAZ and RAFT. While there is a broad agreement among these models in terms of their representation of salient TC characteristics, certain differences do exist. To connect these modeling uncertainties with energy infrastructure resilience, we apply fragility curves that link simulated TC intensities to damage probabilities, demonstrating how uncertainty in storm states may translate into that in coastal impacts. Our study indicates that acknowledging and accounting for inter-model uncertainty leads to more reliable risk assessments, strengthening science-to-action pathways for managing risks associated with TCs.

Baby John, Effy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hazard-Based Model of Activity Generation Using Vehicle Trajectory Data

Travel behavior modeling suffers from lack of longitudinal data due to the high cost of procurement and difficulty with ensuring data quality. In the recent years ubiquitous data intercepted from social media, cell detail record, GPS traces are increasingly being explored to analyze human mobility. However, these data lack key demographic information which limits their use for developing causal models of traveler behavior. The primary contribution of the paper lies in using vehicle trajectory data from Ann Arbor along with multiple other data sources for developing a hazard-based activity generation model. The different category of data used in the analysis include (i) vehicle trajectory data (VTD), (ii) American Census Survey (ACS), (iii) land use data, (iv) household travel survey (HTS) data, and (v) smart location data from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Home and work are identified as the two most frequently visited locations from the VTD and validated against land use categories of the region. Next a random utility-based model is developed using HTS data to identify other activity purposes as a function of the polynomials of distance from home, activity duration and departure time. The developed model is then applied to identify the non-home activity purposes in the VTD. Demographic and accessibility information are appended to the VTD from ACS and smart location databases respectively. The fmal database is then used to develop a hazard-based activity generation model. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

activity generation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancement of Industry Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods and Tools

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improvement in quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improvement in modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report provides the outcomes from the FY2021 research into these three areas, identifying potential technical gaps and solutions, and charting the next steps forward to address current PRA challenges.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solutions for Enhanced Legacy Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tools and Methodologies: Improving Efficiency of Model Development and Processing via Innovative Human Reliability Dependency Analysis

Probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) are integral to nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, having tremendously benefitted the safety of the U.S. reactor fleet for decades. Insights obtained from the models have provided perspectives on a variety of applications, both at the plant and for the regulator. While these models are very useful, they are now being asked to represent and analyze aspects of the plant that were never envisioned by the initial PRA practitioners. Furthermore, heightened demands on the PRA models have led to increased computing power requirements. Additionally, as the complexity of the PRA models increased, the difficulty experienced by non-PRA experts in trying to understand these models, grasp the insights they provide, and effectively use that information has become problematic. The need for research to address key issues regarding PRA tools and methods has never been greater. Although the nuclear power industry has largely been well-served by these tools and methods, the underlying science is dated, remaining mostly unchanged for over two decades. Three areas were identified as most beneficial to address to maintain and improve the usefulness of the current practice legacy PRA tools: improved quantification speed, increased ability to efficiently model multi-hazard models, and improved modeling human action dependency in PRA. This report is focused on the third critical area, improvements in dependency analysis of human actions conducted as part of a typical human reliability assessment.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Azerbaijan

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments (PSHA) underpin the determination of seismic loads in most contemporary seismic provisions of building codes around the world. Modern building codes are migrating towards using the entire uniform hazard spectrum at a range of vibration periods (typically up to 4 s or 10 s) rather than a single peak value such as peak ground acceleration (PGA), thus requiring a larger range of PSHA outputs. The hazard maps in the current version of the building code of Azerbaijan (2011) are in terms of intensity and peak ground acceleration. Recognizing the need for an up-to-date seismic hazard assessment in the country, Seismic Cooperation Program (SCP) under the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) undertook, in coordination with the Republican Seismic Survey Center of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences and the Azerbaijan Scientific Research Institute of Construction and Architecture, a PSHA study that reflects new seismic data recorded locally and recent research conducted nationally and regionally since the last update to the building code. The PSHA framework for this project was designed to help develop a new earthquake catalogue, to incorporate a novel characterization of ground motions that specifically reflects the attenuation characteristics in the eastern Caucasus, and to generate hazard information in a form that is useful for an update of the current building code or the development of a new building code for Azerbaijan. The project also aimed to provide training and support for the local seismologists and engineers related to the seismic hazard models, probabilistic seismic hazard results and their use towards changes in the building code.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Signal in Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Today and Near Future

This manuscript discusses the challenges in detecting and attributing recently observed trends in the Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and the epistemic uncertainty we face in assessing future risk. We use synthetic storms downscaled from five CMIP5 models by the Columbia HAZard model (CHAZ), and directly simulated storms from high-resolution climate models. We examine three aspects of recent TC activity: the upward trend and multi-decadal oscillation of the annual frequency, the increase in storm wind intensity, and the decrease in forward speed. Some data sets suggest that these trends and oscillation are forced while others suggest that they can be explained by natural variability. Projections under warming climate scenarios also show a wide range of possibilities, especially for the annual frequencies, which increase or decrease depending on the choice of moisture variable used in the CHAZ model and on the choice of climate model. The uncertainties in the annual frequency lead to epistemic uncertainties in TC risk assessment. Here, we investigate the potential for reduction of these epistemic uncertainties through a statistical practice, namely likelihood analysis. We find that historical observations are more consistent with the simulations with increasing frequency than those with decreasing frequency, but we are not able to rule out the latter. We argue that the most rational way to treat epistemic uncertainty is to consider all outcomes contained in the results. In the context of risk assessment, since the results contain possible outcomes in which TC risk is increasing, this view implies that the risk is increasing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Occasions for laughter and dementia risk: Findings from a six‐year cohort study

Aim Currently, there is little evidence on the relationship between laughter and the risk of dementia, and since laughter is mainly a social behavior, we aimed to examine the association between various occasions for laughter and the risk of dementia in Japanese older adults. Methods We draw upon 6‐year follow‐up data from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study, including 12 165 independent older adults aged 65 years or over. Occasions for laughter were assessed using a questionnaire, while dementia was diagnosed using the standardized dementia scale of the long‐term care insurance system in Japan. Cox proportional hazards models were estimated, yielding hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results The multivariable hazard ratio of dementia incidence for all participants in the groups for high versus low variety of occasions for laughter was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.72–0.98, P for trend <0.001). A greater variety of occasions for laughter was associated with a lower risk of dementia 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63–0.96, P for trend <0.001) among women, but was less pronounced for men, with significant associations only for the medium group. Laughing during conversations with friends, communicating with children or grandchildren, and listening to the radio were primarily associated with decreased risk. Conclusion A greater variety of laughter occasions in individual and social settings was associated with a reduced risk of dementia. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; 22: 392–398 .

Wang, Yu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reproductive Factors and Endometrial Cancer Risk Among Women

Despite evidence of an association between reproductive factors and endometrial cancer risk, prospective studies have been conducted mainly in non-Asian countries. To assess the association between reproductive factors, such as number of deliveries, age at menarche, or menopause, and endometrial cancer risk. This cohort study used pooled individual data from 13 prospective cohort studies conducted between 1963 and 2014 in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Participants were Asian women. Data analysis was conducted from September 2019 to April 2023. Reproductive factors were assessed using a questionnaire in each cohort. The main outcome was time to incidence of endometrial cancer. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Central Asia Seismic Hazard Assessment (CASHA): A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) underpin the calculation of earthquake loads in most building codes around the world. In Central Asia, the building codes are slowly being updated to incorporate some of the contemporary concepts of seismic hazard representation. There is also a regional desire to coordinate hazard assessments and building code modernization. However, some challenges remain. Expertise in the region related to seismic hazard assessments is still largely compartmentalised, requiring a significant amount of training and capacity building in seismic hazard assessment related topics. In addition, there are vast amounts of seismic data (bulletin and waveforms), both from analogue and digital eras, that the region’s countries stored but until recently did not use or share among themselves or with the broader seismological community around the world. Finally, after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, many of the countries’ seismic networks suffered a major setback with the lack of attention and budget to update existing equipment and installation of new instruments. In order to address these issues, the United States Department of Energy through Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) initiated a project in 2016 to engage and train local scientists in Central Asia to install new equipment, to enhance the quality of seismic monitoring and reporting, to improve and harmonise the regional earthquake catalogue, and to conduct national probabilistic seismic hazard assessments using the new and improved datasets. To achieve the seismic hazard assessment related goals, a series of workshops were held in Almaty, Kazakhstan; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Dushanbe, Tajikistan from 2016 until 2020. During the time that the COVID-19 pandemic restricted travel, workshops continued online (22 online workshops were hosted in two years). Finally, in May 2022, an in-person workshop in Istanbul, Turkey brought together all project participants along with civil engineers engaged with building code activities in their respective countries, providing a platform to discuss the implementation of the hazard models into updates of building codes in each country, as well as to discuss model parameters, sensitivity analyses and model results in terms of hazard maps, uniform hazard spectra and hazard deaggregations. The workshops were a combination of lectures and hands-on exercises, and included international participation as well as local scientists and engineers. The workshops served several purposes, including training, coordination of data collection, interactions between local earth scientists and engineers, and brainstorming and knowledge exchange among local and international experts. This report outlines the new earthquake catalogue compilation effort and the PSHA project undertaken in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan as part of this initiative. The southern part of this region is tectonically active with moderate to high levels of both shallow crustal seismic activity and occurrence of deeper earthquakes under the Hindu Kush and Pamir mountain ranges. Deeper earthquakes also occur near southwestern Kazakhstan, under the eastern Greater Caucasus and Caspian Sea. Large portions of central and northern Kazakhstan, on the other hand, are in stable continental regions with low levels of seismic activity. This study systematically compiles and improves all available data on local seismicity, active faults, and ground motion attenuation characteristics of the region; and builds a framework to enable a contemporary PSHA to be carried out with the engagement of local scientists. While the project was regional, the seismic hazard assessments are primarily driven by the countries’ own national preferences and understanding of data collection, interpretation, and validation of results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗