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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Stardust Entry: Landing and Population Hazards in Mission Planning and Operations

The 385 kg Stardust mission was launched on Feb 7, 1999 on a mission to collect samples from the tail of comet Wild 2 and from interplanetary space. Stardust returned to Earth in the early morning of January 15, 2006. The sample return capsule landed in the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) southwest of Salt Lake City. Because Stardust was landing on Earth, hazard analysis was required by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, UTTR, and the Stardust Project to ensure the safe return of the landing capsule along with the safety of people, ground assets, and aircraft. This paper focuses on the requirements affecting safe return of the capsule and safety of people on the ground by investigating parameters such as probability of impacting on UTTR, casualty expectation, and probability of casualty. This paper introduces the methods for the calculation of these requirements and shows how they affected mission planning, site selection, and mission operations. By analyzing these requirements before and during entry it allowed for the selection of a robust landing point that met all of the requirements during the actual landing event.

Desai, P.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Landing and Population Hazard Analysis for Stardust Entry in Operations and Entry Planning

Stardust is a comet sample return mission that successfully returned to Earth on January 15, 2006. Stardust's targeted landing area was the Utah Test and Training Range in the Northwest corner of Utah. Requirements for the risks associated with landing were levied on Stardust by the Utah Test and Training Range and NASA. This paper describes the analysis to verify that these requirements were met and and includes calculation of debris survivability, generation of landing site selection plots, and identification of keep-out zones, as well as appropriate selection of the landing site. Operationally the risk requirements were all met for both of the GOMO-GO polls, so entry was authorized.

simulation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

Understanding historical changes in flood damage and the underlying mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptations. In this study, a detailed assessment of flood damage for 1950–1999 is conducted at the state level in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Geospatial datasets on possible influencing factors are then developed by synthesizing natural hazards, population, wealth, cropland and urban area to explore the relations with flood damage. A considerable increase in flood damage in CONUS is recorded for the study period which is well correlated with hazards. Comparably, runoff indexed hazards simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model can explain a larger portion of flood damage variations than precipitation in 84% of the states. Cropland is identified as an important factor contributing to increased flood damage in central US while urbanland exhibits positive and negative relations with total flood damage and damage per unit wealth in 20 and 16 states, respectively. Altogether, flood damage in 34 out of 48 investigated states can be predicted at the 90% confidence level. In extreme cases, ~76% of flood damage variations can be explained in some states, highlighting the potential of future flood damage prediction based on climate change and socioeconomic scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Population exposure to hazardous air quality due to the 2015 fires in Equatorial Asia

Vegetation and peatland fires cause poor air quality and thousands of premature deaths across densely populated regions in Equatorial Asia. Strong El-Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are associated with an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires in Indonesia and Borneo, enhancing population exposure to hazardous concentrations of smoke and air pollutants. Here we investigate the impact on air quality and population exposure of wildfires in Equatorial Asia during Fall 2015, which were the largest over the past two decades. We performed high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry based on a new fire emission product. The model captures the spatio-temporal variability of extreme pollution episodes relative to space- and ground-based observations and allows for identification of pollution sources and transport over Equatorial Asia. We calculate that high particulate matter concentrations from fires during Fall 2015 were responsible for persistent exposure of 69 million people to unhealthy air quality conditions. Short-term exposure to this pollution may have caused 11,880 (6,153–17,270) excess mortalities. Results from this research provide decision-relevant information to policy makers regarding the impact of land use changes and human driven deforestation on fire frequency and population exposure to degraded air quality.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geographic, sectoral, and constituent characteristics of US off‐site manufacturing wastewater disposal

This study employs recent US Environmental Protection Agency off-site manufacturing wastewater disposal data and a socioenvironmental assessment tool for the United States to understand the characteristics of such disposal in terms of geography, major contributing sectors and pollutants, and environmental impacts. Environmental impact analyses of manufacturing are insufficient without encompassing the extended physical boundary of waste management. Our analysis reveals that off-site manufacturing wastewater disposal occurs disproportionately in populations residing in census tracts already negatively impacted by environmental hazards (impacted populations, or IPs) with 44% of transfers and 55% of Risk Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) Hazard going to these areas, compared to their national share of 37%. Disposal hazard is concentrated in a small number of populations, with a Gini coefficient of 0.99 for RSEI Hazard. Four manufacturing sub-sectors are significant generators: Chemicals, Fabricated Metals, Primary Metals, and Transportation Equipment, with Chemicals off-site wastewater disposal largely occurring in IPs. For individual contaminants, chromium compounds and chromium represent more than 85% of the hazard but less than 10% of transfers. We explore transfer distances and waste generation and disposal hotspots, finding that the Midwest hosts a disproportionate share of off-site wastewater disposal. Further, RSEI Hazard steeply rises at shorter distances and plateaus over distances >500 miles, revealing opportunities to reduce hazard by reducing 20–500-mile transfers. Our findings strongly support targeted mitigation strategies like process substitutions, control technologies, on-site recycling and treatment, and minimizing transfer distances. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

Fuchs, Heidi [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗
NASA NTRS2001

Thermal Inertia of Rocks and Rock Populations and Implications for Landing Hazards on Mars

Rocks represent an obvious potential hazard to a landing spacecraft. They also represent an impediment to rover travel and objects of prime scientific interest. Although Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) images are of high enough resolution to distinguish the largest rocks (an extremely small population several meters diameter or larger), traditionally the abundance and distribution of rocks on Mars have been inferred from thermal inertia and radar measurements, our meager ground truth sampling of landing sites, and terrestrial rock populations. In this abstract, we explore the effective thermal inertia of rocks and rock populations, interpret the results in terms of abundances and populations of potentially hazardous rocks, and conclude with interpretations of rock hazards on the Martian surface and in extremely high thermal inertia areas.

Golombek, M. P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Repository for Multi-Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A risk-based framework for expanding flood sensor networks.

These data support the manuscript "Multi-Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A risk-based framework for expanding flood sensor networks." These data are generated to allow water managers to reason about optimal locations to expand a flood observation system from multiple perspectives, specifically focusing on flood hazards, and population exposure to flooding. The data included are a) a shapefile of individual sensor locations b) a shapefile of river reach catchments, c) raster of FEMA flood likelihood layers d) shapefile of population locations and population socioeconomic characteristics. The code is written in R and includes all files necessary to generate the figures for the associated manuscript. Interactive maps of the final calculated maps of hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk are also included as html files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

Larger Drought and Flood Hazards and Adverse Impacts on Population and Economic Productivity Under 2.0 than 1.5°C Warming

Climate change may have major influences on surface runoff, which would consequently result in important implications for terrestrial ecosystems and human well‐being. At global scale there is limited understanding of these issues with respect to the warming targets stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Here we use a well‐established hydrological model (Variable Infiltration Capacity [VIC]) forced with a representative ensemble of latest climate projections from four global circulation models (GCMs) to estimate potential future changes in runoff and Terrestrial Ecosystem Water Retention (TEWR), as well as changes in extreme runoff and their impacts on population, and overall gross domestic product (GDP) worldwide. Results suggest that annual runoff generally would have larger increases, while annual TEWR generally would have larger decreases under the 2.0°C warming scenario as opposed to 1.5°C warming scenario. Global mean warming of 2°C versus 1.5°C would lead to more distinct spatial patterns in runoff change, with a general shift of the runoff distribution towards more extreme low runoff in Mexico, western United States, Western Europe, southeastern China, West Siberian Plain and more extreme high runoff in Alaska, northern Canada, and large parts of Asia. More people and GDP would be exposed to extreme low runoff decrease, extreme high runoff increase, extreme low runoff decrease as well as extreme high runoff increase under a higher warming scenario. This study differentiates hydrological impacts between the two warming scenarios and illustrates higher runoff, lower TEWR, larger potential drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and GDP under 2°C than 1.5°C.

Paris Agreement↗
DOE OSTI2022

Image analysis reveals differences in tumor multinucleations in Black and White patients with human papillomavirus‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Background Understanding biological differences between different racial groups of human papillomavirus (HPV)‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients, who have differences in terms of incidence, survival, and tumor morphology, can facilitate accurate prognostic biomarkers, which can help develop personalized treatment strategies. Methods This study evaluated whether there were morphologic differences between HPV‐associated tumors from Black and White patients in terms of multinucleation index (MuNI), an image analysis‐derived metric that measures density of multinucleated tumor cells within epithelial regions on hematoxylin–eosin images and previously has been prognostic in HPV‐associated OPSCC patients. In this study, the authors specifically evaluated whether the same MuNI cutoff that was prognostic of overall survival (OS) and disease‐free survival in their previous study, T TR , is valid for Black and White patients, separately. We also evaluated population‐specific cutoffs, T B for Blacks and T W for Whites, for risk stratification. Results MuNI was statistically significantly different between Black (mean, 3.88e–4; median, 3.67e–04) and White patients (mean, 3.36e–04; median, 2.99e–04), with p = .0078. Using T TR , MuNI was prognostic of OS in the entire population with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.71 ( p = .002; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–2.43) and in White patients with HR of 1.72 ( p = .005; 95% CI, 1.18–2.51). Population‐specific cutoff, T W , yielded improved HR of 1.77 ( p = .003; 95% CI, 1.21–2.58) for White patients, whereas T B did not improve risk‐stratification in Black patients with HR of 0.6 ( p = .3; HR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.2–1.80). Conclusions Histological difference between White and Black patient tumors in terms of multinucleated tumor cells suggests the need for considering population‐specific prognostic biomarkers for personalized risk stratification strategies for HPV‐associated OPSCC patients.

Koyuncu, Can F.↗
DOE OSTI2017

PopLib Unit Test Report for HPAC Version 6.4

This document describes the methodology for and results of testing the PopLib component in Version 6.4 of the Hazard Predication and Assessment Capability (HPAC).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1976

Study of the decay and recovery of orbiting artificial space objects

The reentry of earth-orbiting space objects unconsumed in the atmosphere represents a potential hazard to populated areas of the earth. The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory has conducted a program called Moonwatch, whose purposes were to observe orbiting artificial satellites and reentries of space objects and, if possible, to recover and analyze reentered pieces. In addition, through observations of low-perigee objects, data obtained by Moonwatchers have been instrumental in defining some of the factors affecting satellite decay. The objectives of the program are presented, and the problems that enter into satellite-orbit and decay predictions are addressed. Moonwatchers contributed substantially to increasing an overall prediction capability, and some of the specific achievements over the 6-year period are cited.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2003

Physical Characterization of the Near-Earth Object Population

This program seeks to address the fundamental question: What are the relationships between asteroids, comets, and meteorites? To answer this question, we are studying the population of asteroids near the Earth which likely contain both asteroids and extinct comets and which is the immediate source for meteorites. An analysis of new and existing visible wavelength spectral data for more than 100 (Near-Earth Objects) NEOs, and Keck albedo data for more than 20 NEOs is underway. New asteroid-meteorite links are being found, the NEO population and hazard is being characterized, and the extinct comet component is being constrained. These results are contained within the following publication work during the current period: 1 book, 2 book chapters, 1 published paper, 2 papers submitted, 2 papers in preparation, 1 Ph. D. thesis in preparation, and 7 meeting abstracts/presentations.

Binzel, Richard P.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Hurricane Stalling Along the North American Coast and Implications for Rainfall

The average speed of tropical cyclone (TC) translation has slowed since the mid 20th century. Here we report that North Atlantic (NA) TCs have become increasingly likely to "stall" near the coast, spending many hours in confined regions. The stalling is driven not only by slower translation, but also by an increase in abrupt changes of direction. We compute residence-time distributions for TCs in confined coastal regions, and find that the tails of these distributions have increased significantly. We also show that TCs stalling over a region result in more rain on the region. Together, increased stalling and increased rain during stalls imply increased coastal rainfall from TCs, other factors equal. Although the data are sparse, we do in fact find a significant positive trend in coastal annual-mean rainfall 1948-2017 from TCs that stall, and we verify that this is due to increased stalling frequency. We make no attribution to anthropogenic climate forcing for the stalling or rainfall; the trends could be due to low frequency natural variability. Regardless of the cause, the significant increases in TC stalling frequency and high potential for associated increases in rainfall have very likely exacerbated TC hazards for coastal populations.

tropical cyclone tracks↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Approach to In-Situ Observations of Volcanic Plumes

Volcanoes have long been recognized as playing a dominant role in the birth, and possibly the death, of biological populations. They are possible sources of primordial gases, provide conditions sufficient for creating amino acids, strongly affect the heat balance in the atmosphere, and have been shown to sustain life (in oceanic vents.) Eruptions can have profound effects on local flora and fauna, and for very large eruptions, may alter global weather patterns and cause entire species to fail. Measurements of particulates, gases, and dynamics within a volcanic plume are critical to understanding both how volcanoes work and how plumes affect populations, environment, and aviation. Volcanic plumes and associated eruption columns are a miasma of toxic gases, corrosive condensates, and abrasive particulates that makes them hazardous to nearby populations and poses a significant risk to all forms of aviation. Plumes also provide a mechanism for sampling the volcanic interior, which, for hydrothermal environments, may host unique biological populations.

Smythe, W. D.↗
DOE OSTI2011

Increased Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Young Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients

Purpose: Radiation/chemoradiotherapy-induced carotid stenosis and cerebrovascular events in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) can cause severe disability and even death. This study aimed to estimate the risk of ischemic stroke in this patient population over more than 10 years of follow-up. Methods and Materials: The study cohorts consisted of all patients hospitalized with a principal diagnosis of NPC (n = 1094), whereas patients hospitalized for an appendectomy during 1997 and 1998 (n = 4376) acted as the control group and surrogate for the general population. Cox proportional hazard model was performed as a means of comparing the stroke-free survival rate between the two cohorts after adjusting for possible confounding and risk factors. Results: Of the 292 patients with ischemic strokes, 62 (5.7%) were from the NPC cohort and 230 (5.3%) were from the control group. NPC patients ages 35-54 had a 1.66 times (95% CI, 1.16-2.86; p = 0.009) higher risk of ischemic stroke after adjusting for patient characteristics, comorbidities, geographic region, urbanization level of residence, and socioeconomic status. There was no statistical difference in ischemic stroke risk between the NPC patients and appendectomy patients ages 55-64 years (hazard ratio = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.56-1.33; p = 0.524) after adjusting for other factors. Conclusions: Young NPC patients carry a higher risk for ischemic stroke than the general population. Besides regular examinations of carotid duplex, different irradiation strategies or using new technique of radiotherapy, such as intensity modulated radiation therapy or volumetric modulated arc therapy, should be considered in young NPC patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS2022

Idaho Wildfires II: Assessing the Relationship Between Drought Indicators and Wildfire Risk to Enhance Hazard Modeling and Inform Mitigation Planning

The western United States has experienced twenty years of increased and prolonged drought which have exacerbated wildfire hazards. These jeopardize population centers through increased risks to ecosystem services, local economies, and livelihoods. The Idaho Office of Emergency Management, Water Resources, and Department of Lands are seeking methods to dynamically monitor these conditions and update models that inform hazard mitigation planning and resource allocation. Towards this, these agencies partnered with NASA DEVELOP to produce drought-enhanced wildfire hazard models. Part of a two-term project, the two teams revised the state’s static wildfire hazard model with refined data layers and remotely-sensed data to reflect dynamic ecosystem responses to drought conditions and wildfire potential. Our team distinguished between rangeland and forestland ecosystems, and investigated relationships between drought metrics and vegetation condition using TerrSet Earth Trends Modeler. This analysis determined that total precipitation at a 5-month lag interval (r 2 = 0.72) along with the Evaporative Stress Index (r 2 = 0.69); and precipitation at a 5-month interval (r 2 = 0.42) were important drivers in rangeland and forestland, respectively. These driver variables were incorporated into a temporally dynamic wildfire hazard map. Our team used linear regression to correlate hazard ratings with wildfire frequency. For the year 2020, neither the enhanced hazard model (p < 0.10, r 2 = 0.01) nor the state’s static model (p < 0.05, r 2 = 0.03) were strongly correlated with actual wildfire frequency as they expressed an inverse relationship between wildfire hazard and frequency. This suggests wildfire occurrence is complex and not necessarily driven by the variables used.

Wildfire↗
DOE OSTI2015

Radiation dose to Malaysian infants from natural radionuclides via consumption of powdered milk

Milk is the basic food stuff for the infants because they generally consume more milk on a daily basis as its minerals and proteins are essential for their growth and development, therefore, it is very important to assess the natural radioactivity levels and the associated dose in the widely consumed powered infant’s milk. As a result, 14 brands of infant’s powdered milk were collected from different supermarkets around Selangor, Malaysia and analysed for {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K activities. The obtained mean activity of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K are 3.05±1.84, 2.55±2.48 and 99.1±69.5 Bqkg{sup −1}, respectively. Among the analysed milk samples, the brand from Philippines (Lactogen) showed low level of radioactivity while Singaporean brand (S26 SMA Gold) showed the highest. The estimated mean annual effective doses due to the ingestion of natural radionuclides in the sampled milk are 635 and 111 µSv for infant ≤ 1y and infant 1-2y, respectively. The obtained dose value does not yet pose any significant radiological hazards to the population under investigation comparing with the 1.0 mSvy{sup −1} recommended by ICRP for all ages.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗