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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing process-based flood frequency analysis for assessing flood hazard and population flood exposure

Recent studies have showcased the use of process-based hydrological models with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) techniques to conduct Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA). This framework, referred hereby FFA-SST, has proved to be a robust strategy to estimate peak flows of specific annual exceedance probability (e.g., 100-year peak flow) that can reflect natural and anthropogenic disturbances, including changes in land use and meteorological patterns. With the objective of advancing the FFA-SST framework, this study presents for the first time the use of an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM) to conduct FFA-SST by extending the analysis from peak flow responses to flood extent, enabling a unique view and analysis of flood hazard and population flood exposure at the basin scale. As a proof-of-concept, we used the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct FFA-SST by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a 2,227 $km^2$ Southeast Texas watershed. We demonstrate that ATS, without site-specific calibration, provides a robust process-based representation of peak flows, flood extent, streamflow, evapotranspiration, soil moisture content, and water storage changes. Our results and analyses, covering frequency curves up to a 500-year return period for peak flows, basin inundation fractions, and the number of people exposed to flooding, offer a unique perspective to analyze flood impacts across spatial scales. Overall, this study provides critical insights for flood risk management by extending the FFA-SST framework to include both flood hazard and population flood exposure analyses at the basin scale. Such an approach will empower stakeholders and disaster emergency agencies with a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts across the entire basin domain, facilitating informed decision-making for flood risk assessment and management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability

Understanding historical changes in flood damage and the underlying mechanisms is critical for predicting future changes for better adaptations. In this study, a detailed assessment of flood damage for 1950–1999 is conducted at the state level in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Geospatial datasets on possible influencing factors are then developed by synthesizing natural hazards, population, wealth, cropland and urban area to explore the relations with flood damage. A considerable increase in flood damage in CONUS is recorded for the study period which is well correlated with hazards. Comparably, runoff indexed hazards simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model can explain a larger portion of flood damage variations than precipitation in 84% of the states. Cropland is identified as an important factor contributing to increased flood damage in central US while urbanland exhibits positive and negative relations with total flood damage and damage per unit wealth in 20 and 16 states, respectively. Altogether, flood damage in 34 out of 48 investigated states can be predicted at the 90% confidence level. In extreme cases, ~76% of flood damage variations can be explained in some states, highlighting the potential of future flood damage prediction based on climate change and socioeconomic scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Population exposure to hazardous air quality due to the 2015 fires in Equatorial Asia

Vegetation and peatland fires cause poor air quality and thousands of premature deaths across densely populated regions in Equatorial Asia. Strong El-Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are associated with an increase in the frequency and intensity of wildfires in Indonesia and Borneo, enhancing population exposure to hazardous concentrations of smoke and air pollutants. Here we investigate the impact on air quality and population exposure of wildfires in Equatorial Asia during Fall 2015, which were the largest over the past two decades. We performed high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry based on a new fire emission product. The model captures the spatio-temporal variability of extreme pollution episodes relative to space- and ground-based observations and allows for identification of pollution sources and transport over Equatorial Asia. We calculate that high particulate matter concentrations from fires during Fall 2015 were responsible for persistent exposure of 69 million people to unhealthy air quality conditions. Short-term exposure to this pollution may have caused 11,880 (6,153–17,270) excess mortalities. Results from this research provide decision-relevant information to policy makers regarding the impact of land use changes and human driven deforestation on fire frequency and population exposure to degraded air quality.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geographic, sectoral, and constituent characteristics of US off‐site manufacturing wastewater disposal

This study employs recent US Environmental Protection Agency off-site manufacturing wastewater disposal data and a socioenvironmental assessment tool for the United States to understand the characteristics of such disposal in terms of geography, major contributing sectors and pollutants, and environmental impacts. Environmental impact analyses of manufacturing are insufficient without encompassing the extended physical boundary of waste management. Our analysis reveals that off-site manufacturing wastewater disposal occurs disproportionately in populations residing in census tracts already negatively impacted by environmental hazards (impacted populations, or IPs) with 44% of transfers and 55% of Risk Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) Hazard going to these areas, compared to their national share of 37%. Disposal hazard is concentrated in a small number of populations, with a Gini coefficient of 0.99 for RSEI Hazard. Four manufacturing sub-sectors are significant generators: Chemicals, Fabricated Metals, Primary Metals, and Transportation Equipment, with Chemicals off-site wastewater disposal largely occurring in IPs. For individual contaminants, chromium compounds and chromium represent more than 85% of the hazard but less than 10% of transfers. We explore transfer distances and waste generation and disposal hotspots, finding that the Midwest hosts a disproportionate share of off-site wastewater disposal. Further, RSEI Hazard steeply rises at shorter distances and plateaus over distances >500 miles, revealing opportunities to reduce hazard by reducing 20–500-mile transfers. Our findings strongly support targeted mitigation strategies like process substitutions, control technologies, on-site recycling and treatment, and minimizing transfer distances. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

Fuchs, Heidi [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Repository for Multi-Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A risk-based framework for expanding flood sensor networks.

These data support the manuscript "Multi-Objective Urban Observational Strategies: A risk-based framework for expanding flood sensor networks." These data are generated to allow water managers to reason about optimal locations to expand a flood observation system from multiple perspectives, specifically focusing on flood hazards, and population exposure to flooding. The data included are a) a shapefile of individual sensor locations b) a shapefile of river reach catchments, c) raster of FEMA flood likelihood layers d) shapefile of population locations and population socioeconomic characteristics. The code is written in R and includes all files necessary to generate the figures for the associated manuscript. Interactive maps of the final calculated maps of hazard, vulnerability, exposure, and risk are also included as html files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Image analysis reveals differences in tumor multinucleations in Black and White patients with human papillomavirus‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Background Understanding biological differences between different racial groups of human papillomavirus (HPV)‐associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) patients, who have differences in terms of incidence, survival, and tumor morphology, can facilitate accurate prognostic biomarkers, which can help develop personalized treatment strategies. Methods This study evaluated whether there were morphologic differences between HPV‐associated tumors from Black and White patients in terms of multinucleation index (MuNI), an image analysis‐derived metric that measures density of multinucleated tumor cells within epithelial regions on hematoxylin–eosin images and previously has been prognostic in HPV‐associated OPSCC patients. In this study, the authors specifically evaluated whether the same MuNI cutoff that was prognostic of overall survival (OS) and disease‐free survival in their previous study, T TR , is valid for Black and White patients, separately. We also evaluated population‐specific cutoffs, T B for Blacks and T W for Whites, for risk stratification. Results MuNI was statistically significantly different between Black (mean, 3.88e–4; median, 3.67e–04) and White patients (mean, 3.36e–04; median, 2.99e–04), with p = .0078. Using T TR , MuNI was prognostic of OS in the entire population with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.71 ( p = .002; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.21–2.43) and in White patients with HR of 1.72 ( p = .005; 95% CI, 1.18–2.51). Population‐specific cutoff, T W , yielded improved HR of 1.77 ( p = .003; 95% CI, 1.21–2.58) for White patients, whereas T B did not improve risk‐stratification in Black patients with HR of 0.6 ( p = .3; HR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.2–1.80). Conclusions Histological difference between White and Black patient tumors in terms of multinucleated tumor cells suggests the need for considering population‐specific prognostic biomarkers for personalized risk stratification strategies for HPV‐associated OPSCC patients.

Koyuncu, Can F.↗
DOE OSTI2017

PopLib Unit Test Report for HPAC Version 6.4

This document describes the methodology for and results of testing the PopLib component in Version 6.4 of the Hazard Predication and Assessment Capability (HPAC).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2011

Increased Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Young Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Patients

Purpose: Radiation/chemoradiotherapy-induced carotid stenosis and cerebrovascular events in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) can cause severe disability and even death. This study aimed to estimate the risk of ischemic stroke in this patient population over more than 10 years of follow-up. Methods and Materials: The study cohorts consisted of all patients hospitalized with a principal diagnosis of NPC (n = 1094), whereas patients hospitalized for an appendectomy during 1997 and 1998 (n = 4376) acted as the control group and surrogate for the general population. Cox proportional hazard model was performed as a means of comparing the stroke-free survival rate between the two cohorts after adjusting for possible confounding and risk factors. Results: Of the 292 patients with ischemic strokes, 62 (5.7%) were from the NPC cohort and 230 (5.3%) were from the control group. NPC patients ages 35-54 had a 1.66 times (95% CI, 1.16-2.86; p = 0.009) higher risk of ischemic stroke after adjusting for patient characteristics, comorbidities, geographic region, urbanization level of residence, and socioeconomic status. There was no statistical difference in ischemic stroke risk between the NPC patients and appendectomy patients ages 55-64 years (hazard ratio = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.56-1.33; p = 0.524) after adjusting for other factors. Conclusions: Young NPC patients carry a higher risk for ischemic stroke than the general population. Besides regular examinations of carotid duplex, different irradiation strategies or using new technique of radiotherapy, such as intensity modulated radiation therapy or volumetric modulated arc therapy, should be considered in young NPC patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Radiation dose to Malaysian infants from natural radionuclides via consumption of powdered milk

Milk is the basic food stuff for the infants because they generally consume more milk on a daily basis as its minerals and proteins are essential for their growth and development, therefore, it is very important to assess the natural radioactivity levels and the associated dose in the widely consumed powered infant’s milk. As a result, 14 brands of infant’s powdered milk were collected from different supermarkets around Selangor, Malaysia and analysed for {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K activities. The obtained mean activity of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K are 3.05±1.84, 2.55±2.48 and 99.1±69.5 Bqkg{sup −1}, respectively. Among the analysed milk samples, the brand from Philippines (Lactogen) showed low level of radioactivity while Singaporean brand (S26 SMA Gold) showed the highest. The estimated mean annual effective doses due to the ingestion of natural radionuclides in the sampled milk are 635 and 111 µSv for infant ≤ 1y and infant 1-2y, respectively. The obtained dose value does not yet pose any significant radiological hazards to the population under investigation comparing with the 1.0 mSvy{sup −1} recommended by ICRP for all ages.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Low stress drop earthquakes in the rupture zone of the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake

Tsunami earthquakes, events that generate larger than expected tsunami and are deficient in high-frequency seismic radiation, are rare but hazardous to coastal populations. One model for these events is shallow rupture through low-strength materials. We calculate here seismic moment, corner frequency, and stress drop for 216 earthquakes (2.1 < M w < 4.7, November 2005 to June 2006) within and external to the 1992 Nicaragua tsunami earthquake rupture zone to test the hypothesis that differences in fault zone properties defined the limits of the 1992 tsunami rupture zone and continue to produce spatial variations in earthquake source properties. Mean stress drop of events within the rupture area is 1.2 MPa, and 5.5 MPa for events just outside of the rupture zone, with similar magnitude earthquakes in each group. Our results demonstrate different source parameter characteristics for microseismicity in the region of a past tsunami earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bystander Effects of Ionizing Radiation

The objectives of this grant renewal are to provide administrative support and travel funds to allow the continued participation of the principal investigator (Dr. John B. Little) as an advisor to research initiated by several research fellows from his laboratory. The actual research will be carried out under the direction of Dr. Hatsumi Nagasawa with the collaboration of Dr. Joel Bedford at the Colorado State University, and by Drs. Edouard Azzam and Sonia de Toledo at the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey. Dr. Little will advise on the planning of experiments and development of experimental protocols, the analysis of data, and the preparation of manuscripts for publication. The Specific Aims for several of the planned experiments include: 1) to extend studies of the role of recombinational repair in the bystander effect by examining other genes in this pathway and cell lines deficient in excision repair; 2) to continue studies to determine the nature of the damage signal transmitted to bystander cells including the expression of several connexins in the bystander response, and the extent to which the enhanced oxidative metabolism observed in bystander cells may relate to the nature of the transmitted bystander signal; 3) to utilize a genome-wide approach to examine the genetic basis for the hypersensitivity to ionization we have observed in unaffected parents of patients with hereditary retinoblastoma, as well as from a group of apparently normal individuals that show similar radiosensitivity; 4) to complete studies concerning the induction of high frequencies of cells with massive chromosome damage in clonal derivatives of p53 and p21 knockout mouse cell lines; in particular to examine the role of telomere changes in this phenomenon. Overall, the results of these studies should enhance our understanding of the risk of low-dose exposures to ionizing radiation, including human populations to residential radon as well as occupational exposures.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2014

PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Studies for the requirements of automatic and remotely controlled shutoff valves on hazardous liquids and natural gas pipelines with respect to public and environmental safety

This study assesses the effectiveness of block valve closure swiftness in mitigating the consequences of natural gas and hazardous liquid pipeline releases on public and environmental safety. It also evaluates the technical, operational, and economic feasibility and potential cost benefits of installing automatic shutoff valves (ASVs) and remote control valves (RCVs) in newly constructed and fully replaced transmission lines. Risk analyses of hypothetical pipeline release scenarios are used as the basis for assessing: (1) fire damage to buildings and property in Class 1, Class 2, Class 3, and Class 4 high consequence areas (HCAs) caused by natural gas pipeline releases and subsequent ignition of the released natural gas; (2) fire damage to buildings and property in HCAs designated as high population areas and other populated areas caused by hazardous liquid pipeline releases and subsequent ignition of the released propane; and (3) socioeconomic and environmental damage in HCAs caused by hazardous liquid pipeline releases of crude oil. These risk analyses use engineering principles and fire science practices to characterize thermal radiation effects on buildings and humans and to quantify the total damage cost of socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The risk analysis approach used for natural gas pipelines is consistent with risk assessment standards developed by industry and incorporated into Federal pipeline safety regulations. Feasibility evaluations for the hypothetical pipeline release scenarios considered in this study show that installation of ASVs and RCVs in newly constructed and fully replaced natural gas and hazardous liquid pipelines is technically, operationally, and economically feasible with a positive cost benefit. However, these results may not apply to all newly constructed and fully replaced pipelines because site-specific parameters that influence risk analyses and feasibility evaluations often vary significantly from one pipeline segment to another and may not be consistent with those considered in this study. Consequently, the technical, operational, and economic feasibility and potential cost benefits of installing ASVs and RCVs in newly constructed or fully replaced pipelines need to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. In theory, installing ASVs and RCVs in pipelines can be an effective strategy for mitigating potential consequences of unintended releases because decreasing the total volume of the release reduces overall impacts on the public and to the environment. However, block valve closure has no effect on preventing pipeline failure or stopping the product that remains inside the isolated pipeline segments from escaping into the environment. The benefits in terms of cost avoidance attributed to block valve closure swiftness increase as the time required to isolate the damaged transmission pipeline segment decreases. Block valve closure swiftness is most effective in mitigating damage resulting from a pipeline release and subsequent fire when the damaged pipeline segment is isolated and the thermal radiation produced by the fire declines in time so that emergency responders can safely begin fire fighting activities immediately upon arrival at the scene. Similarly, the avoided cost of socioeconomic and environmental damage for hazardous liquid pipeline releases without ignition increase as time required to isolate the damaged pipeline segment decreases.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2015

MUTZ-3 derived Langerhans cells in human skin equivalents show differential migration and phenotypic plasticity after allergen or irritant exposure

After allergen or irritant exposure, Langerhans cells (LC) undergo phenotypic changes and exit the epidermis. In this study we describe the unique ability of MUTZ-3 derived Langerhans cells (MUTZ-LC) to display similar phenotypic plasticity as their primary counterparts when incorporated into a physiologically relevant full-thickness skin equivalent model (SE-LC). We describe differences and similarities in the mechanisms regulating LC migration and plasticity upon allergen or irritant exposure. The skin equivalent consisted of a reconstructed epidermis containing primary differentiated keratinocytes and CD1a{sup +} MUTZ-LC on a primary fibroblast-populated dermis. Skin equivalents were exposed to a panel of allergens and irritants. Topical exposure to sub-toxic concentrations of allergens (nickel sulfate, resorcinol, cinnamaldehyde) and irritants (Triton X-100, SDS, Tween 80) resulted in LC migration out of the epidermis and into the dermis. Neutralizing antibody to CXCL12 blocked allergen-induced migration, whereas anti-CCL5 blocked irritant-induced migration. In contrast to allergen exposure, irritant exposure resulted in cells within the dermis becoming CD1a{sup −}/CD14{sup +}/CD68{sup +} which is characteristic of a phenotypic switch of MUTZ-LC to a macrophage-like cell in the dermis. This phenotypic switch was blocked with anti-IL-10. Mechanisms previously identified as being involved in LC activation and migration in native human skin could thus be reproduced in the in vitro constructed skin equivalent model containing functional LC. This model therefore provides a unique and relevant research tool to study human LC biology in situ under controlled in vitro conditions, and will provide a powerful tool for hazard identification, testing novel therapeutics and identifying new drug targets. - Highlights: • MUTZ-3 derived Langerhans cells integrated into skin equivalents are fully functional. • Anti-CXCL12 blocks allergen-induced MUTZ-LC migration. • Anti-CCL5 blocks irritant-induced MUTZ-LC migration. • Irritant mediated MUTZ-LC trans-differentiation to macrophage-like cell in dermis. • Trans-differentiation of MUTZ-LC is IL-10 dependent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Malaysia

This paper describes and demonstrates a method for relative risk estimation which is based on the stochastic SIR-SI vector-borne infectious disease transmission model specifically for Dengue and Chikungunya diseases in Malaysia. Firstly, the common compartmental model for vector-borne infectious disease transmission called the SIR-SI model (susceptible-infective-recovered for human populations; susceptible-infective for vector populations) is presented. This is followed by the explanations on the stochastic SIR-SI model which involve the Bayesian description. This stochastic model then is used in the relative risk formulation in order to obtain the posterior relative risk estimation. Then, this relative estimation model is demonstrated using Dengue and Chikungunya data of Malaysia. The viruses of these diseases are transmitted by the same type of female vector mosquito named Aedes Aegypti and Aedes Albopictus. Finally, the findings of the analysis of relative risk estimation for both Dengue and Chikungunya diseases are presented, compared and displayed in graphs and maps. The distribution from risk maps show the high and low risk area of Dengue and Chikungunya diseases occurrence. This map can be used as a tool for the prevention and control strategies for both diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Long-term low-dose α-particle enhanced the potential of malignant transformation in human bronchial epithelial cells through MAPK/Akt pathway

Highlights: • Multi-exposures of 25 mGy α-ray enhanced cell proliferation, adhesion, and invasion. • MAPK/Akt but not JNK/P66 was positively correlated with cell invasive phenotypes. • LDR of α-irradiation triggers cell malignant transformation through MAPK/Akt. - Abstract: Since the wide usage of ionizing radiation, the cancer risk of low dose radiation (LDR) (<0.1 Gy) has become attractive for a long time. However, most results are derived from epidemiologic studies on atomic-bomb survivors and nuclear accidents surrounding population, and the molecular mechanism of this risk is elusive. To explore the potential of a long-term LDR-induced malignant transformation, human bronchial epithelial cells Beas-2B were fractionally irradiated with 0.025 Gy α-particles for 8 times in total and then further cultured for 1–2 months. It was found that the cell proliferation, the abilities of adhesion and invasion, and the protein expressions of p-ERK, p-Akt, especially p-P38 were not only increased in the multiply-irradiated cells but also in their offspring 1–2 months after the final exposure, indicating high potentiality of cell malignant transformation. On opposite, the expressions of p-JNK and p-P66 were diminished in the subcultures of irradiated cells and thus may play a role of negative regulation in canceration. When the cells were transferred with p38 siRNA, the LDR-induced enhancements of cell adhesion and invasion were significantly reduced. These findings suggest that long-term LDR of α-particles could enhance the potential of malignant transformation incidence in human bronchial epithelial cells through MAPK/Akt pathway.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Persistent organic pollutant levels in human visceral and subcutaneous adipose tissue in obese individuals—Depot differences and dysmetabolism implications

Background: The role of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) with endocrine disrupting activity in the aetiology of obesity and other metabolic dysfunctions has been recently highlighted. Adipose tissue (AT) is a common site of POPs accumulation where they can induce adverse effects on human health. Objectives: To evaluate the presence of POPs in human visceral (vAT) and subcutaneous (scAT) adipose tissue in a sample of Portuguese obese patients that underwent bariatric surgery, and assess their putative association with metabolic disruption preoperatively, as well as with subsequent body mass index (BMI) reduction. Methods: AT samples (n=189) from obese patients (BMI ≥35) were collected and the levels of 13 POPs were determined by gas chromatography with electron-capture detection (GC-ECD). Anthropometric and biochemical data were collected at the time of surgery. BMI variation was evaluated after 12 months and adipocyte size was measured in AT samples. Results: Our data confirm that POPs are pervasive in this obese population (96.3% of detection on both tissues), their abundance increasing with age (R{sub S}=0.310, p<0.01) and duration of obesity (R{sub S}=0.170, p<0.05). We observed a difference in AT depot POPs storage capability, with higher levels of ΣPOPs in vAT (213.9±204.2 compared to 155.1±147.4 ng/g of fat, p<0.001), extremely relevant when evaluating their metabolic impact. Furthermore, there was a positive correlation between POP levels and the presence of metabolic syndrome components, namely dysglycaemia and hypertension, and more importantly with cardiovascular risk (R{sub S}=0.277, p<0.01), with relevance for vAT (R{sub S}=0.315, p<0.01). Finally, we observed an interesting relation of higher POP levels with lower weight loss in older patients. Conclusion: Our sample of obese subjects allowed us to highlight the importance of POPs stored in AT on the development of metabolic dysfunction in a context of obesity, shifting the focus to their metabolic effects and not only for their recognition as environmental obesogens. - Highlights: • POPs are pervasive in this sample of obese patients undergoing bariatric surgery. • Distinct adipose tissues have dissimilar POPs storage capability. • Despite the presence of obesity, POPs are important for metabolic dysregulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

2032 and 2036 risk enhancement from NEOs in the Taurid stream: Is there a significant coherent component to impact risk?

Impact risk is normally quantified by summing the product of the probability of an event and some measure of its consequences over the set of all possible events. The probability factor is considered to be more objective and is based on the size frequency distribution of Near Earth objects (NEOs) and an implicit assumption of randomness, which can be described as “stochastic risk”. Impact frequency does change with time, however, and there have been episodes in the deep geological past when the flux has been much higher. The hypothesis of “coherent catastrophism” suggests large variations on shorter timescales. It postulates the existence of a “Taurid resonant swarm” (TRS) of debris associated with Comet Encke that is stabilized by Jupiter and in a 7:2 resonance with it. The hypothetical cluster orbits in the broad Taurid stream, which crosses Earth's orbit twice a year at its nodes. Whereas the most extreme and fanciful versions of coherent catastrophism in recent geologic history have been comprehensively refuted, the possibility of a significant component of coherent (time-dependent) risk, associated with non-random correlated events, remains. This paper incorporates recently published data from observational campaigns associated with the Taurid stream. There is no evidence for objects in the Taurid stream that are above the global catastrophe threshold, but the possibility of a few large objects and a significant population of objects the size of the Chelyabinsk or Tunguska bodies has not been eliminated. Eyewitness accounts and comparison of airburst models to ground truth suggest that the Tunguska object was a Beta Taurid. The Tunguska event is probably an outlier when compared to the size frequency distributions under stochastic assumptions, but if there is a significant coherent component it may be representative of events that take place far more frequently, and risk assessments may have underestimated the contribution from airbursts. If so, the Earth will experience increased risk from objects this size, peaking in November 2032 and June 2036. We recommend targeted survey campaigns during these hypothetical TRS node crossings to quantify the population, search for potentially hazardous objects, and identify imminent impactors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗