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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Mid-Latitude Circulation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Chronically underestimated: a reassessment of US heat waves using the extended heat index

Abstract The heat index, or apparent temperature, was never defined for extreme heat and humidity, leading to the widespread adoption of a polynomial extrapolation designed by the United States National Weather Service. Recently, however, the heat index has been extended to all combinations of temperature and humidity, presenting an opportunity to reassess past heat waves. Here, three-hourly temperature and humidity are used to evaluate the extended heat index over the contiguous United States during the years 1984–2020. It is found that the 99.9th percentile of the daily maximum heat index is highest over the Midwest. Identifying and ranking heat waves by the spatially integrated exceedance of that percentile, the Midwest once again stands out as home to the most extreme heat waves, including the top-ranked July 2011 and July 1995 heat waves. The extended heat index can also be used to evaluate the physiological stress induced by heat and humidity. It is found that the most extreme Midwest heat waves tax the cardiovascular system with a skin blood flow that is elevated severalfold, approaching the physiological limit. These effects are not captured by the National Weather Service’s polynomial extrapolation, which also underestimates the heat index by as much as 10 ∘ C (20 ∘ F) during severe heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Consumer safety-oriented scheduling of rotating power outages during heat waves

Extreme heat events have widespread effects on power systems, reducing available generation capacity, limiting transmission capabilities, and causing unusual demand patterns on the consumer side. As these combined effects expose bulk transmission systems to potential large-scale blackouts, utilities may be required to schedule and apply rotating outages, by temporarily and alternately disconnecting distribution substations to reduce overload. However, utilities lack mechanisms to inform these events, exacerbating the negative effects of heat waves on affected communities. This paper introduces a novel framework for scheduling rotating outages during heat waves while considering impacts on consumers’ safety. Instead of random sequential load shedding, we propose a methodology to rotate power outages considering a metric that quantifies the indoor overheating risk of groups of consumers during a power outage. The overheating risk is derived from a detailed building simulation using CityBES, where the buildings are modeled based on available data—use type, year built, floor area, number of stories, location—while presence of air conditioning and occupancy are calibrated from smart meter data. Based on the metric, an algorithm to schedule the rotating outages is applied to prioritize feeders for disconnection at each hour according to their overheating risk to meet a utility load reduction target. Applied to two substations and seven feeders in the Portland General Electric territory, the results show that this approach effectively leads to the lowest overheating risk during the resulting outage schedules, with an average 10.1% lower overheating compared to uninformed schedules.

Building thermal simulation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of pre-cooling as a recommended measure to improve residential buildings’ thermal resilience during heat waves

More intense heat waves are expected to occur more frequently in the twenty-first century. During severe heat waves, cooling capacity shortfall and overheating are likely to occur in residential buildings, and this will adversely affect occupant's thermal comfort and productivity. We propose a strategy of pre-cooling the house during off-peak hours to mitigate overheating during heat waves. Additionally, simulation results of a prototype single-family house show that adopting the rule-based control (RBC) of pre-cooling thermostat setpoint schedule is effective in reducing thermal discomfort, and that the efficacy of pre-cooling depends upon several building characteristics. An optimized control (OC) of the thermostat setpoint schedule was developed based on the simulation of a prototype building. A simplified yet improved RBC (IRBC) pre-cooling schedule was then extracted from the OC schedule for practical implementation at a larger scale. The effects of the RBC schedule and IRBC schedule were evaluated in the King District of Fresno, which contains 814 residential buildings. Results show that both thermostat setpoint schedules can reduce overheating effectively and that IRBC is slightly better than RBC for most buildings. The findings support the California government's recommendation on pre-cooling to mitigate overheating, which can be further improved with an optimized thermostat setpoint schedule broadcast to residents through early alert messages before a heat wave.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2016

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

Heat waves are the largest cause of environment-related deaths globally. On average, over 6,000 people in the United States alone are hospitalized each summer due to excessive heat. Key elements leading to these disasters are elevated humidity and the urban heat island effect, which act together to increase apparent temperature and amplify the effects of a heat wave. Urban demographics and socioeconomic factors also play a role in determining individual risk. Currently, advisories of impending heat waves are often too generalized, with limited or no spatial variability over urban regions. This frequently contributes to a lack of specific response on behalf of the population. A goal of this project is to develop a product that has the potential to provide more specific heat wave guidance invoking greater awareness and action.

Urban↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Extreme Heat on Emergency Department Admissions for Childhood and Adult Asthma: An Evaluation of Earth Observations and Heat Wave Definitions

Extreme heat has been associated with adverse health outcomes, yet its impact on asthma exacerbations remains understudied. This is, in part, due to data limitations: research that relies on weather station records and aggregated health statistics cannot resolve fine-scale differences in heat impacts. This study investigates the association between heat wave definitions and summertime asthma-related emergency department visits in Baltimore, Maryland from 2016 to 2022, including 819 adult and 695 pediatric exacerbations. Using geocoded electronic health records and air temperature measurements at several spatial resolutions, we applied a case-crossover design with conditional logistic regressions at the census block group and tract levels. We found strong associations between asthma exacerbations and nighttime heat wave definitions based on relative thresholds of minimum temperatures when census block group or tract level temperature estimates were used. These relationships were significant for both age groups and showed elevated risks in socially vulnerable areas. In contrast, heat wave definitions derived from the city's primary National Weather Service synoptic weather station show associations between asthma and daytime heat extremes, suggesting that the character of the heat hazard depends on the scale at which it is defined. The extreme heat event definition used by Baltimore City's Code Red system showed no significant association with exacerbations. These findings highlight the importance of data resolution in shaping health inferences related to extreme heat in urban environments. Further, this study demonstrates that, regardless of spatial scale, extreme heat is associated with asthma exacerbations in both age groups.

Corpuz, B. [Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, M↗
NASA NTRS2020

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of daily maximum (T(max)) and minimum (T(min)) temperatures can both be detrimental to human health. Previous studies have concluded that the frequency of global heat waves has increased over recent decades, with greater increases in T(min)- than T(max)-heat waves in several regions. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with heatwaves manifest during daytime versus nighttime hours over the United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). A daytime (nighttime) heat wave is defined as average daytime (nighttime) temperature exceeding its calendar day 90th percentile for at least 3 days. Over 1980-2018, the number of heat wave days per summer has increased over much of the United States. Trends are stronger for nighttime versus daytime heat wave frequency over the Northeast, Midwest and Southwest United States. Local and remote processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of clouds, precipitation, soil moisture, and fluxes of heat and moisture. Finally, we characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with daytime and nighttime heat waves over different regions of the United States.

Thomas, N.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the Contiguous United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture, and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of both daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures can be detrimental to human health. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with summertime heat waves manifested during daytime versus nighttime hours over the contiguous United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Over 1980–2018, the increase in the number of heat wave days per summer was generally stronger for nighttime heat wave days than daytime heat wave days, with localized regions of significant positive trends. Processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of precipitation, soil moisture, clouds, humidity and fluxes of heat and moisture. Daytime heat waves are associated with dry conditions, reduced cloud cover, and increased sensible heating. Mechanisms leading to nighttime heat waves differ regionally across the US, but they are typically associated with increased clouds, humidity and/or low-level temperature advection. In the Midwest US, enhanced moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico during nighttime heat waves.

Extreme events↗
DOE OSTI2023

Boundary Layer Height Variation over the Savannah River Site during a Heat Wave

With the number of heat waves expect to increase in both in their severity and frequency in the coming years, an insight into their impact on planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights is essential for one development of future emergency and safety plans. Using High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) atmospheric model output, an analysis is done on the effects a heat wave has on PBL heights and temperature inversions across the Savannah River Site (SRS). This study showed that due to its adjacency to anthropogenic land use, SRS experiences a non-negligible gradient in its PBL height, with higher heights to the northwest. The singular location PBL heigh measurement and forecasts for SRS do not account for this gradient, which has potential implications on pollutant and smoke dispersion onsite. During a heat wave this gradient is present but PBL heights are less impacted than surrounding developed areas, possibly attributable to the woody wetlands that surround the Savannah River's banks. Additionally, the heat wave appears to strongly enhance the nocturnal temperature inversions that the site and surrounding areas experience. This is possibly due to increased stability from higher pressure conditions, which are often associated with heat waves. This influence on nocturnal inversions, however, is limited to their intensity, leaving their timing relatively unaltered. The impact a heat wave has on PBL heights and temperature inversions across SRS is seen to be more dependent on adjacent land use and features rather than the unique land use types onsite.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

City-Scale Building Anthropogenic Heating during Heat Waves

More frequent and longer duration heat waves have been observed worldwide and are recognized as a serious threat to human health and the stability of electrical grids. Past studies have identified a positive feedback between heat waves and urban heat island effects. Anthropogenic heat emissions from buildings have a crucial impact on the urban environment, and hence it is critical to understand the interactive effects of urban microclimate and building heat emissions in terms of the urban energy balance. Here we developed a coupled-simulation approach to quantify these effects, mapping urban environmental data generated by the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) coupled to Urban Canopy Model (UCM) to urban building energy models (UBEM). We conducted a case study in the city of Los Angeles, California, during a five-day heat wave event in September 2009. We analyzed the surge in city-scale building heat emission and energy use during the extreme heat event. We first simulated the urban microclimate at a high resolution (500 m by 500 m) using WRF-UCM. We then generated grid-level building heat emission profiles and aggregated them using prototype building energy models informed by spatially disaggregated urban land use and urban building density data. The spatial patterns of anthropogenic heat discharge from the building sector were analyzed, and the quantitative relationship with weather conditions and urban land-use dynamics were assessed at the grid level. The simulation results indicate that the dispersion of anthropogenic heat from urban buildings to the urban environment increases by up to 20% on average and varies significantly, both in time and space, during the heat wave event. The heat dispersion from the air-conditioning heat rejection contributes most (86.5%) of the total waste heat from the buildings to the urban environment. We also found that the waste heat discharge in inland, dense urban districts is more sensitive to extreme events than it is in coastal or suburban areas. The generated anthropogenic heat profiles can be used in urban microclimate models to provide a more accurate estimation of urban air temperature rises during heat waves.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Role of Local Heating in the 2015 Indian Heat Wave

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examination of in situ data, reanalysis, satellite observations, and land surface models, we find that the heat wave included two distinct peaks: one in late May, and a second in early June. During the first peak we find that clear skies led to a positive net radiation anomaly at the surface, but there is no significant sensible heat flux anomaly within the core of the heat wave affected region. By the time of the second peak, however, soil moisture had dropped to anomalously low levels in the core heat wave region, net surface radiation was anomalously high, and a significant positive sensible heat flux anomaly developed. This led to a substantial local forcing on air temperature that contributed to the intensity of the event. The analysis indicates that the highly agricultural landscape of North and Central India can reinforce heat extremes under dry conditions.

Debjani Ghatak↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamically downscaled seasonal heat wave projections in the CONUS

Heat waves are a well-documented hazard that are projected to increase in intensity, duration, and frequency with climate change. Regions of the US experience widely varying temperatures; for example, 35 °C is extremely hot for spring in the Northeast but not for summer in the Southeast. It is important to evaluate projections within a regional context and at a high enough resolution to understand the risks to populations. We identify heat waves across the Conterminous US (CONUS) under SSP5–8.5 from 2020 to 2059 with an ensemble of dynamically downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model outputs. We demonstrate that there are regional differences caused by seasonal and local drivers of persistent hot temperatures. Summer heat waves are increasing in intensity and duration faster than winter heat waves because of the atmospheric conditions that promote these events. Our analysis emphasizes the value of fine-resolution modeling for projecting future climate risks.

Rubin, Hannah [University of Tennessee, Knoxville ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision modeling of non-ideal effects in wave-heated dense microplasmas

A computational model for non-ideal plasma effects during the time evolution of a second-stage laser-heated discharge at high pressures is presented. The model extends a classical one-dimensional particle-in-cell Monte Carlo-collision (PIC-MCC) approach coupled with Maxwell's equations for the laser-heating process of a xenon plasma at 300 K temperature and 10–100 bar pressure. Plasma non-ideality resulting from Coulomb coupling at high plasma densities is manifested as a depression in the effective ionization potential of atoms and enhanced collision cross sections. These non-ideal effects are represented using the Ecker–Kröll model in the context of the PIC-MCC approach. We find that full ionization of the plasma is obtained on the picosecond timescale, starting from the skin layer and quickly expanding throughout the domain through an anomalous extension of the skin depth. More critically, we show that the inclusion of the non-ideal plasma effects results in more rapid ionization compared to an ideal plasma, especially at higher pressures. The ionization delay reduction is of the order of a fraction of a picosecond, corresponding to a 16% decrease at 100 bar. As the amplitude of the wave field is lowered, the ionization rate is lowered, making the plasma non-ideality effects more prominent.

Solmaz, Evrim (ORCID:0000000211830881)↗
NASA NTRS2016

Simulations of the Mg II K and Ca II 8542 Lines From an Alfvén Wave-Heated Flare Chromosphere

We use radiation hydrodynamic simulations to examine two models of solar flare chromospheric heating: Alfven wave dissipation and electron beam collisional losses. Both mechanisms are capable of strong chromospheric heating, and we show that the distinctive atmospheric evolution in the mid-to-upper chromosphere results in Mg II k-line emission that should be observably different between wave-heated and beam-heated simulations. We also present Ca II 8542 A profiles that are formed slightly deeper in the chromosphere. The Mg II k-line profiles from our wave-heated simulation are quite different from those from a beam-heated model and are more consistent with Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph observations. The predicted differences between the Ca II 8542 A in the two models are small. We conclude that careful observational and theoretical study of lines formed in the mid-to-upper chromosphere holds genuine promise for distinguishing between competing models for chromospheric heating inflares.

Kerr, Graham S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Decadal Changes in the Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in East Asia Caused by Atmospheric Teleconnection Changes

The heat wave in East Asia is examined by using empirical orthogonal function analysis to isolate dominant heat-wave patterns in the ground-based temperature observations over the Korean Peninsula and China and related large-scale atmospheric circulations obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 during 1973–2012. This study focuses particularly on the interannual variability of heat waves and its decadal change. The analysis identifies two major atmospheric teleconnection patterns playing an important role in developing typical heat-wave patterns in East Asia—the Scandinavian (SCAND) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns, which exhibit a significant decadal change in the interannual variability in the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, heat-wave occurrence was closely related to the CGT pattern, whereas the SCAND pattern is more crucial to explain heat-wave variability in the recent period. The stationary wave model experiments suggest an intensification of the SCAND pattern in the recent period driven by an increase in land–atmosphere interaction over Eurasia and decadal change in the dominant heat-wave patterns in East Asia.

heat wave patterns↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator application to heat waves: Ko’olauloa community resilience hub

Heat waves are increasing in severity, duration, and frequency. The Multi-Scenario Extreme Weather Simulator (MEWS) models this using historical data, climate model outputs, and heat wave multipliers. In this study, MEWS is applied for planning of a community resilience hub in Hau'ula, Hawaii. The hub will have normal operations and resilience operations modes. Both these modes were modeled using EnergyPlus. The resilience operations mode includes cutting off air conditioning for many spaces to decrease power requirements during emergencies. Results were simulated for 300 future weather files generated by MEWS for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080. Shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 were used. The resilience operations mode results show two to six times increase of hours of exceedance beyond 32.2 °C from present conditions, depending on climate scenario and future year. The resulting decrease in thermal resilience enables an average decrease of energy use intensity of 26% with little sensitivity to climate change. The decreased thermal resilience predicted in the future is undesirable, but was not severe enough to require a more energy-intensive resilience mode. Instead, planning is needed to assure vulnerable individuals are given prioritized access to air-conditioned parts of the hub if worst-case heat waves occur.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting Recent U.S. Heat Waves in a Warmer and More Humid Climate

The frequency and intensity of heat waves in the United States is projected to increase in the 21st century. We investigate dry and humid heat waves in a pair of high-resolution model simulations that constrain large-scale atmospheric circulation, to isolate the thermodynamic impacts on characteristics of present and future heat waves over the United States. The two kinds of heat waves show differences in mean intensity, amplitude, duration, and frequency over the Southeast, Northeast, and Midwest, while their characteristics are largely similar in the drier central and western United States. In a warmer climate, relative humidity is projected to decrease during dry heat waves, whereas it remains unchanged during humid heat waves. However, the overall increase in daily maximum temperature intensifies the heat stress during future humid and dry heat waves across all regions. With large-scale circulation constrained, these simulations emphasize the importance of thermodynamic drivers in determining future heat wave characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Changes in the Intensity and Frequency of Atmospheric Blocking and Associated Heat Waves During Northern Summer Over Eurasia in the CMIP5 Model Simulations

The Russia heat wave and wild fires of the summer of 2010 was the most extreme weather event in the history of the country. Studies show that the root cause of the 2010 Russia heat wave/wild fires was an atmospheric blocking event which started to develop at the end of June and peaked around late July and early August. Atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010 was anomalous in terms of the size, duration, and the location, which shifted to the east from the normal location. This and other similar continental scale severe summertime heat waves and blocking events in recent years have raised the question of whether such events are occurring more frequently and with higher intensity in a warmer climate induced by greenhouse gases. We studied the spatial and temporal distributions of the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric blocking and associated heat waves for northern summer over Eurasia based on CMIPS model simulations. To examine the global warming induced change of atmospheric blocking and heat waves, experiments for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.S) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.S) are compared to the 20th century simulations (historical). Most models simulate the mean distributions of blockings reasonably well, including major blocking centers over Eurasia, northern Pacific, and northern Atlantic. However, the models tend to underestimate the number of blockings compared to MERRA and NCEPIDOE reanalysis, especially in western Siberia. Models also reproduced associated heat waves in terms of the shifting in the probability distribution function of near surface temperature. Seven out of eight models used in this study show that the frequency of atmospheric blocking over the Europe will likely decrease in a warmer climate, but slightly increase over the western Siberia. This spatial pattern resembles the blocking in the summer of 2010, indicating the possibility of more frequent occurrences of heat waves in western Siberia. In this talk, we will also discuss the potential effect of atmosphere-land feedback, particularly how the wetter spring affects the frequency and intensity of atmospheric blocking and heat wave during summer.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗