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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Mid-Latitude Circulation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

Heat waves are the largest cause of environment-related deaths globally. On average, over 6,000 people in the United States alone are hospitalized each summer due to excessive heat. Key elements leading to these disasters are elevated humidity and the urban heat island effect, which act together to increase apparent temperature and amplify the effects of a heat wave. Urban demographics and socioeconomic factors also play a role in determining individual risk. Currently, advisories of impending heat waves are often too generalized, with limited or no spatial variability over urban regions. This frequently contributes to a lack of specific response on behalf of the population. A goal of this project is to develop a product that has the potential to provide more specific heat wave guidance invoking greater awareness and action.

Urban↗
NASA NTRS2020

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of daily maximum (T(max)) and minimum (T(min)) temperatures can both be detrimental to human health. Previous studies have concluded that the frequency of global heat waves has increased over recent decades, with greater increases in T(min)- than T(max)-heat waves in several regions. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with heatwaves manifest during daytime versus nighttime hours over the United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). A daytime (nighttime) heat wave is defined as average daytime (nighttime) temperature exceeding its calendar day 90th percentile for at least 3 days. Over 1980-2018, the number of heat wave days per summer has increased over much of the United States. Trends are stronger for nighttime versus daytime heat wave frequency over the Northeast, Midwest and Southwest United States. Local and remote processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of clouds, precipitation, soil moisture, and fluxes of heat and moisture. Finally, we characterize the large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with daytime and nighttime heat waves over different regions of the United States.

Thomas, N.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Mechanisms Associated with Daytime and Nighttime Heat Waves over the Contiguous United States

Heat waves are extreme climate events that have the potential to cause immense stress on human health, agriculture, and energy systems, so understanding the processes leading to their onset is crucial. There is no single accepted definition for heat waves, but they are generally described as a sustained amount of time where temperature exceeds a local threshold. Multiple different temperature variables are potentially relevant, as high values of both daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures can be detrimental to human health. In this study, we focus explicitly on the different mechanisms associated with summertime heat waves manifested during daytime versus nighttime hours over the contiguous United States. Heat waves are examined using the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Over 1980–2018, the increase in the number of heat wave days per summer was generally stronger for nighttime heat wave days than daytime heat wave days, with localized regions of significant positive trends. Processes linked with daytime and nighttime heat waves are identified through composite analysis of precipitation, soil moisture, clouds, humidity and fluxes of heat and moisture. Daytime heat waves are associated with dry conditions, reduced cloud cover, and increased sensible heating. Mechanisms leading to nighttime heat waves differ regionally across the US, but they are typically associated with increased clouds, humidity and/or low-level temperature advection. In the Midwest US, enhanced moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico during nighttime heat waves.

Extreme events↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Role of Local Heating in the 2015 Indian Heat Wave

India faced a major heat wave during the summer of 2015. Temperature anomalies peaked in the dry period before the onset of the summer monsoon, suggesting that local land-atmosphere feedbacks involving desiccated soils and vegetation might have played a role in driving the heat extreme. Upon examination of in situ data, reanalysis, satellite observations, and land surface models, we find that the heat wave included two distinct peaks: one in late May, and a second in early June. During the first peak we find that clear skies led to a positive net radiation anomaly at the surface, but there is no significant sensible heat flux anomaly within the core of the heat wave affected region. By the time of the second peak, however, soil moisture had dropped to anomalously low levels in the core heat wave region, net surface radiation was anomalously high, and a significant positive sensible heat flux anomaly developed. This led to a substantial local forcing on air temperature that contributed to the intensity of the event. The analysis indicates that the highly agricultural landscape of North and Central India can reinforce heat extremes under dry conditions.

Debjani Ghatak↗
NASA NTRS2016

Simulations of the Mg II K and Ca II 8542 Lines From an Alfvén Wave-Heated Flare Chromosphere

We use radiation hydrodynamic simulations to examine two models of solar flare chromospheric heating: Alfven wave dissipation and electron beam collisional losses. Both mechanisms are capable of strong chromospheric heating, and we show that the distinctive atmospheric evolution in the mid-to-upper chromosphere results in Mg II k-line emission that should be observably different between wave-heated and beam-heated simulations. We also present Ca II 8542 A profiles that are formed slightly deeper in the chromosphere. The Mg II k-line profiles from our wave-heated simulation are quite different from those from a beam-heated model and are more consistent with Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph observations. The predicted differences between the Ca II 8542 A in the two models are small. We conclude that careful observational and theoretical study of lines formed in the mid-to-upper chromosphere holds genuine promise for distinguishing between competing models for chromospheric heating inflares.

Kerr, Graham S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Decadal Changes in the Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in East Asia Caused by Atmospheric Teleconnection Changes

The heat wave in East Asia is examined by using empirical orthogonal function analysis to isolate dominant heat-wave patterns in the ground-based temperature observations over the Korean Peninsula and China and related large-scale atmospheric circulations obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 during 1973–2012. This study focuses particularly on the interannual variability of heat waves and its decadal change. The analysis identifies two major atmospheric teleconnection patterns playing an important role in developing typical heat-wave patterns in East Asia—the Scandinavian (SCAND) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns, which exhibit a significant decadal change in the interannual variability in the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, heat-wave occurrence was closely related to the CGT pattern, whereas the SCAND pattern is more crucial to explain heat-wave variability in the recent period. The stationary wave model experiments suggest an intensification of the SCAND pattern in the recent period driven by an increase in land–atmosphere interaction over Eurasia and decadal change in the dominant heat-wave patterns in East Asia.

heat wave patterns↗
NASA NTRS2012

Changes in the Intensity and Frequency of Atmospheric Blocking and Associated Heat Waves During Northern Summer Over Eurasia in the CMIP5 Model Simulations

The Russia heat wave and wild fires of the summer of 2010 was the most extreme weather event in the history of the country. Studies show that the root cause of the 2010 Russia heat wave/wild fires was an atmospheric blocking event which started to develop at the end of June and peaked around late July and early August. Atmospheric blocking in the summer of 2010 was anomalous in terms of the size, duration, and the location, which shifted to the east from the normal location. This and other similar continental scale severe summertime heat waves and blocking events in recent years have raised the question of whether such events are occurring more frequently and with higher intensity in a warmer climate induced by greenhouse gases. We studied the spatial and temporal distributions of the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric blocking and associated heat waves for northern summer over Eurasia based on CMIPS model simulations. To examine the global warming induced change of atmospheric blocking and heat waves, experiments for a high emissions scenario (RCP8.S) and a medium mitigation scenario (RCP4.S) are compared to the 20th century simulations (historical). Most models simulate the mean distributions of blockings reasonably well, including major blocking centers over Eurasia, northern Pacific, and northern Atlantic. However, the models tend to underestimate the number of blockings compared to MERRA and NCEPIDOE reanalysis, especially in western Siberia. Models also reproduced associated heat waves in terms of the shifting in the probability distribution function of near surface temperature. Seven out of eight models used in this study show that the frequency of atmospheric blocking over the Europe will likely decrease in a warmer climate, but slightly increase over the western Siberia. This spatial pattern resembles the blocking in the summer of 2010, indicating the possibility of more frequent occurrences of heat waves in western Siberia. In this talk, we will also discuss the potential effect of atmosphere-land feedback, particularly how the wetter spring affects the frequency and intensity of atmospheric blocking and heat wave during summer.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗
NASA NTRS1985

Preliminary Results from Numerical Experiments on the Summer 1980 Heat Wave and Drought

During the summer of 1980, a prolonged heat wave and drought affected the United States. A preliminary set of experiments has been conducted to study the effect of varying boundary conditions on the GLA model simulation of the heat wave. Five 10-day numerical integrations with three different specifications of boundary conditions were carried out: a control experiment which utilized climatological boundary conditions, an SST experiment which utilized summer 1980 sea-surface temperatures in the North Pacific, but climatological values elsewhere, and a Soil Moisture experiment which utilized the values of Mintz-Serafini for the summer, 1980. The starting dates for the five forecasts were 11 June, 7 July, 21 July, 22 August, and 6 September of 1980. These dates were specifically chosen as days when a heat wave was already established in order to investigate the effect of soil moistures or North Pacific sea-surface temperatures on the model's ability to maintain the heat wave pattern. The experiments were evaluated in terms of the heat wave index for the South Plains, North Plains, Great Plains and the entire U.S. In addition a subjective comparison of map patterns has been performed.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

SST↗
NASA NTRS1986

A simple diagnostic tool for the investigation of persistent phenomena with application to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

A simple and readily-computed index for diagnostic and numerical weather prediction studies of heat waves and other persistent anomalies has been developed. The index takes into account the two important factors of intensity and persistence and it is highly correlated to the surface air temperature on a variety of time-scales. The utilization of this index for investigating the severe, summer 1980 U.S. heat wave and drought results in an instructive description of the spatial and temporal development of the phenomenon. An assessment of the skill of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) model in forecasting the initiation and breakdown of the heat wave in terms of the index is also illustrated.

Wolfson, Noah↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Have Heat Waves Become More Intense and Frequent in North America in the Past 40 Years?

Extreme events, especially heat waves, have seemingly become more frequent and intense in the past decades worldwide, likely associated with global warming. This study uses the extreme detection indices product derived from the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) data to address whether heat waves have become more intense and frequent in North America in the past 40 years. We also examine in-depth the recent heat wave in June 2023 in Canada and the associated drought and wildfire events and compare them with previous years. We use additional data products in this study for cross-validation, including surface temperature from Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS 2.0) and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 7, with a shorter data latency, only a few days. In addition, we will demonstrate how to efficiently conduct long-term time-series data analysis, which involves a large volume of data, using data services developed at NASA GES DISC, such as Giovanni, datarod, and Thematic Real-time Environmental Distributed Data Services (THREDDS) Data Server (TDS). These services can be used to visualize and explore extreme events, and to download only the data that is of interest.

Xiaohua Pan↗
NASA NTRS2020

Investigation of the 2016 Eurasia heat wave as an event of the recent warming

This study investigates the physical mechanisms that contributed to the 2016 Eurasian heat wave during boreal summer season (July–August, JA), characterized by much higher than normal temperatures over eastern Europe, East Asia, and the Kamchatka Peninsula. It is found that the 2016 JA mean surface air temperature, upper-tropospheric height, and soil moisture anomalies are characterized by a tri-pole pattern over the Eurasia continent and a wave train-like structure not dissimilar to recent (1980–2016) trends in those quantities. A series of forecast experiments designed to isolate the impacts of the land, ocean, and sea ice conditions on the development of the heat wave is carried out with the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5. The results suggest that the tri-pole blocking pattern over Eurasia, which appears to be instrumental in the development of the 2016 summer heat wave, can be viewed as an expression of the recent trends, amplified by record-breaking oceanic warming and internal land-atmosphere interactions.

Eunkyo Seo↗
NASA NTRS2004

Evaporation and Accompanying Isotopic Fractionation of Sulfur from FE-S Melt During Shock Wave Heating

Chondrules probably formed by melting and subsequent cooling of solid precursors. Evaporation during chondrule melting may have resulted in depletion of volatile elements in chondrules. It is known that kinetic evaporation, especially evaporation from a melt, often leads to enrichment of heavy isotopes in an evaporation residue. However, no evidence for a large degree of heavy-isotope enrichment has been reported in chondrules for K, Mg, Si, and Fe (as FeO). The lack of isotopic fractionation has also been found for sulfur in troilites (FeS) within Bishunpur (LL3.1) and Semarkona (LL3.0) chondrules by an ion microprobe study. The largest fractionation, found in only one grain, was 2.7 +/- 1.4 %/amu, while all other troilite grains showed isotopic fractionations of <1 %/amu. The suppressed isotopic fractionation has been interpreted as results of (i) rapid heating of precursors at temperatures below the silicate solidus and (ii) diffusion-controlled evaporation through a surrounding silicate melt at temperatures above the silicate solidus. The kinetic evaporation model suggests that a rapid heating rate of >10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) K/h for a temperature range of 1000-1300 C is required to explain observed isotopic fractionations. Such a rapid heating rate seems to be difficult to be achieved in the X-wind model, but can be achieved in shock wave heating models. In this study, we have applied the sulfur evaporation model to the shock wave heating conditions of to evaluate evaporation of sulfur and accompanying isotopic fractionation during shock wave heating at temperatures below the silicate solidus.

Tachibana, S.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Numerical prediction experiments related to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The GLA (Goddard Laboratory for Atmosphere) fourth-order model predictions of the summer 1980 heat wave are examined to assess the skill of the model in numerically forecasting the initiation of the heat wave and the sensitivity of the model predictions to initial conditions and boundary forcing. Results of experiments indicate that the model predictions are sensitive to the initial conditions. The sensitivity of the model to anomalous boundary forcing is found to be generally larger than its sensitivity to initial conditions at extended ranges. The results of the study suggest that models may be useful in forecasting similar events if adequate determinations of the evolving boundary forcing can be made in real time.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Teleconnection, Regime Shift, and Predictability of Climate Extremes: A Case Study for the Russian Heat Wave and Pakistan Flood in Summer 2010

In this talk, we present observational evidence showing that the two major extremes events of the summer of 2010, i.e., the Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood were physically connected. We find that the Pakistan flood was contributed by a series of unusually heavy rain events over the upper Indus River Basin in July-August. The rainfall regimes shifted from an episodic heavy rain regime in mid-to-late July to a steady heavy rain regime in August. An atmospheric Rossby wave associated with the development of the Russian heat wave was instrumental in spurring the episodic rain events , drawing moisture from the Bay of Bengal and the northern Arabian Sea. The steady rain regime was maintained primarily by monsoon moisture surges from the deep tropics. From experiments with the GEOS-5 forecast system, we assess the predictability of the heavy rain events associated with the Pakistan flood. Preliminary results indicate that there are significantly higher skills in the rainfall forecasts during the episodic heavy rain events in July, compared to the steady rain period in early to mid-August. The change in rainfall predictability may be related to scale interactions between the extratropics and the tropics resulting in a modulation of rainfall predictability by the circulation regimes.

Lau, W. K.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Wind Observations of Wave Heating and/or Particle Energization at Supercritical Interplanetary Shocks

We present the first observations at supercritical interplanetary shocks of large amplitude (> 100 mV/m pk-pk) solitary waves, approx.30 mV/m pk-pk waves exhibiting characteristics consistent with electron Bernstein waves, and > 20 nT pk-pk electromagnetic lower hybrid-like waves, with simultaneous evidence for wave heating and particle energization. The solitary waves and the Bernstein-like waves were likely due to instabilities driven by the free energy provided by reflected ions [Wilson III et al., 2010]. They were associated with strong particle heating in both the electrons and ions. We also show a case example of parallel electron energization and perpendicular ion heating due to a electromagnetic lower hybrid-like wave. Both studies provide the first experimental evidence of wave heating and/or particle energization at interplanetary shocks. Our experimental results, together with the results of recent Vlasov [Petkaki and Freeman, 2008] and PIC [Matsukyo and Scholer, 2006] simulations using realistic mass ratios provide new evidence to suggest that the importance of wave-particle dissipation at shocks may be greater than previously thought.

Wilson, Lynn Bruce, III↗
NASA NTRS1987

Numerical experiments related to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

The NASA Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres fourth-order GCM was used in a series of medium-range numerical forecast experiments in order to improve understanding of the severe summer 1980 heat wave over the U.S. The results show that the derived soil moisture anomalies in the summer of 1980 contributed positively to the model's simulation of the heat wave maintenance, and suggest that once a region of reduced soil moisture is established, it tends to persist and maintain warmer and drier conditions. The lower soil moisture values resulted in reduced evaporation, higher ground temperatures, increased sensible heat flux from ground to air, higher surface air temperature, lower sea-level pressure, and higher 500-mb height. The effects of North Pacific sea-surface-temperature anomalies were mostly opposite to those of the soil-moisture anomalies: enhanced northerly flow of cooler drier air, increased evaporation, lower ground and air temperature, higher sea level pressure, and lower 500 mb heights over the Great Plains.

Wolfson, N.↗