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DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Gaussian Random Field Sampling for Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Coupling Stochastic Partial Differential Equation and the Karhunen–Loève Decomposition

This work introduces structure preserving hierarchical decompositions for sampling Gaussian random fields (GRFs) within the context of multilevel Bayesian inference in high-dimensional space. Existing scalable hierarchical sampling methods, such as those based on stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs), often reduce the dimensionality of the sample space at the cost of accuracy of inference. Other approaches, such that those based on Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions, offer sample space dimensionality reduction but sacrifice GRF representation accuracy and ergodicity of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler and are computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. The proposed method integrates the dimensionality reduction capabilities of KL expansions with the scalability of SPDE-based sampling, thereby providing a robust, unified framework for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification (UQ) that is scalable and accurate, preserves ergodicity, and offers dimensionality reduction of the sample space. The hierarchy in our multilevel algorithm is derived from the geometric multigrid hierarchy. By constructing a hierarchical decomposition that maintains the covariance structure across the levels in the hierarchy, the approach enables efficient coarse-to-fine sampling while ensuring that all samples are drawn from the desired distribution. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on a benchmark subsurface flow problem, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving computational efficiency and statistical accuracy. Furthermore, our proposed technique is more efficient and accurate and displays better convergence properties than existing methods for high-dimensional Bayesian inference problems.

Gaussian random fields↗

DOE OSTI2026

Distributed quantum approximate optimization algorithm on a quantum-centric supercomputing architecture

Quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) has shown promise in solving combinatorial optimization problems by providing quantum speedup on near-term gate-based quantum computing systems. However, QAOA faces challenges for high-dimensional problems due to the large number of qubits required and the complexity of deep circuits, limiting its scalability for real-world applications. In this study, we present a distributed QAOA (DQAOA), which leverages distributed computing strategies to decompose a large computational workload into smaller tasks that require fewer qubits and shallower circuits than are necessary to solve the original problem. These sub-problems are processed using a combination of high-performance and quantum computing resources. The global solution is iteratively updated by aggregating sub-solutions, allowing convergence toward the optimal solution. We demonstrate that DQAOA can handle considerably large-scale optimization problems (e.g., 1000-bit problem), achieving a high solution quality and short time-to-solution, outperforming existing strategies. Furthermore, we realize DQAOA on a quantum-centric supercomputing architecture, paving the way for practical applications of gate-based quantum computers in real-world optimization tasks. To extend DQAOA’s applicability to materials science, we further develop an active learning algorithm integrated with our DQAOA (AL-DQAOA), which involves machine learning, DQAOA, and active data production in an iterative loop. We successfully optimize photonic structures using AL-DQAOA, indicating that solving real-world optimization problems using gate-based quantum computing is feasible. We expect the proposed DQAOA to be applicable to a wide range of optimization problems and AL-DQAOA to find broader applications in material design.

Kim, Seongmin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000159063004)↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Comprehensive Comparative Study of Active Learning Schemes for Nanophotonics Design

We present a benchmarking study of active learning (AL) schemes for designing planar multilayer nanophotonic metamaterials, where the design tasks are formulated as binary optimization problems. Different surrogate models, including factorization machine (FM), Gaussian process regression (GPR), and convolutional neural network (CNN), combined with different optimization methods, including exhaustive enumeration, discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO), quantum annealing (QA), hybrid QA, and simulated annealing are studied. The benchmark cases investigated range from small problems with short binary lengths (N = 25) to large problems with N up to 100, focusing on the design of two classes of photonic structures, including antireflective coatings for the long-wavelength infrared region and transparent radiative coolers. For small problems, CNN coupled with DPSO in AL achieves the best performance. As N increases, FM with QA outperforms GPR and CNN. For FM-based AL, hybrid QA yields the best optimization results, particularly in high-dimensional cases (N = 100). These results demonstrate that the optimization method can significantly affect in AL performance as N increases, and that QA-based optimization can provide practical routes for mitigating the optimization bottleneck in high-dimensional problems.

Jung, Serang [Kyung Hee University, Korea]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Consequential improvement acquisition function for efficient multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization

Abstract Surrogate-based Bayesian optimization has been widely applied in design optimization to increase sampling efficiency. However, the cost for each evaluation of the objective function can still be very high when physical experiments or large-scale simulations are involved. Multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization is the new approach to further improve the sampling efficiency by reducing the number of expensive samples at the highest fidelity level and supplementing them with less expensive ones at low-fidelity levels. In this paper, a new consequential improvement (CI) acquisition function is proposed to allow for the simultaneous selection of the solution and the fidelity level in problems with a known hierarchy of fidelity levels. The new CI acquisition function incorporates the consequential effectiveness of objective improvement with the considerations of cost, accuracy, and validity differences between high- and low-fidelity samples in engineering practice. The new method of multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization based on the CI is demonstrated with several analytical and simulation-based design examples. In the simulation-based design optimization example, the results show that the CI acquisition function has a decisive advantage in the sampling efficiency over the other methods of multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization with simultaneous selection. The results indicate that the proposed method is particularly advantageous in solving high-dimensional problems and when large cost ratios between high- and low-fidelity evaluations exist and high-fidelity validation is mandatory. Furthermore, the method robustly avoids the prevalent issue of over sampling at low-fidelity levels.

Aydogdu, Ibrahim [Georgia Institute of Technology,↗

DOE OSTI2026

Affine Transformations to Enable Machine Learning for Semi-Quantitative EDS Analysis

Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) is an essential technique for determining elemental concentrations and distributions within microstructures, critical for materials discovery, optimization, and qualification. However, most published EDS data is qualitative because current quantitative EDS analysis methods require extensive calibration and post-processing, limiting their practicality and widespread adoption. This work seeks to establish a framework for accelerated EDS characterization and spectrum analysis that can leverage ML to analyze correlations between various elemental compositions and resulting EDS spectra. The complex physics and data result in a high-dimensional problem that grows exponentially with the number of elements in the system and the complexity of the spectrum analysis. ML provides a way to compute and optimize the results of this highly dimensional problem in a flexible way to tailor it to the user’s specific needs and material system. However, the framework emphasizes transparency through a strictly mathematical affine transformation, so the analysis remains understandable and reviewable to facilitate adoption by the scientific community. While currently implemented methods are simplistic and unvalidated, further development and demonstration of this framework could enable high-throughput, accurate, and accessible EDS characterization.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Affine Transformations to Correlate Experimental and Simulated EDS Spectra for Multi-Element Systems

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Distributed Quantum-Enhanced Optimization: A Topographical Preconditioning Approach for High-Dimensional Search

Optimization problems become fundamentally challenging as the number of variables increases. Because the volume of the search space grows exponentially, classical algorithms frequently fail to locate the global minimum of non-convex functions. While quantum optimization offers a potential alternative, mapping continuous problems onto near-term quantum hardware introduces severe scaling limits and barren plateaus. To bridge this gap, we propose the Distributed Quantum-Enhanced Optimization (D-QEO) framework. Instead of forcing the quantum processor to find the exact minimum, we use it simply as a topographical preconditioner. The QPU maps the landscape to locate the most promising basin of attraction, generating high-quality seed points for a classical GPU-accelerated solver to refine. To make this approach viable for utility-scale problems, we exploit the mathematical structure of separable functions. This allows us to cut a 50-qubit (i.e., $2^{50}$) global search space into independent and manageable sub-spaces using 5-qubit subcircuits. By executing these fragments concurrently with CUDA-Q, we completely bypass the overhead of cross-register entanglement and classical tensor knitting for separable functions. Benchmarks on the 10-dimensional Rastrigin and Ackley functions show that D-QEO prevents the exponential failure rates observed in purely classical algorithms. Furthermore, this quantum warm-start significantly reduces the number of classical BFGS iterations required to converge, providing a highly practical blueprint for utilizing near-term quantum resources in complex global search.

Soos, Dominik [Old Dominion U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

SO(3)-invariant PCA with application to molecular data

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a fundamental technique for dimensionality reduction and denoising; however, its application to three-dimensional data with arbitrary orientations -- common in structural biology -- presents significant challenges. A naive approach requires augmenting the dataset with many rotated copies of each sample, incurring prohibitive computational costs. In this paper, we extend PCA to 3D volumetric datasets with unknown orientations by developing an efficient and principled framework for SO(3)-invariant PCA that implicitly accounts for all rotations without explicit data augmentation. By exploiting underlying algebraic structure, we demonstrate that the computation involves only the square root of the total number of covariance entries, resulting in a substantial reduction in complexity. We validate the method on real-world molecular datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness and opening up new possibilities for large-scale, high-dimensional reconstruction problems.

Fraiman, Michael [Tel Aviv Univ., Tel Aviv (Israel↗

DOE OSTI2026

Intrusive Uncertainty Quantification and Optimal Experiment Design in the Open-Source Pyomo Ecosystem

This contribution describes ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE, two pillars of the open-source Python-based Pyomo ecosystem for computational optimization with (partial differential) algebraic equation mathematical models. Specifically, ParmEst facilitates intrusive frequentist parameter estimation (PE) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) through built-in features, such as covariance matrix estimation, bootstrapping, and likelihood ratio tests. Complementary, Pyomo.DoE enables optimal experiment design by maximizing various metrics of the Fisher information matrix, such as A-optimality (trace), D-optimality (determinant), E-optimality (minimum eigenvalue), and ME-optimality (condition number). ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE can solve high-dimensional optimization problems by leveraging the model structure and exact derivative information. Finally, we will discuss future opportunities to integrate PE and UQ capabilities with optimization under uncertainty, including robust optimization with non-convex models via PyROS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Harnessing Quantum Computing for Energy Materials: Opportunities and Challenges

Developing high-performance materials is critical for diverse energy applications to increase efficiency, improve sustainability and reduce costs. Classical computational methods have enabled important breakthroughs in energy materials development, but they face scaling and time-complexity limitations, particularly for high-dimensional or strongly correlated material systems. Quantum computing (QC) promises to offer a paradigm shift by exploiting quantum bits with their superposition and entanglement to address challenging problems intractable for classical approaches. This Perspective discusses the opportunities in leveraging QC to advance energy materials research and the challenges QC faces in solving complex and high-dimensional problems. We present cases on how QC, when combined with classical computing methods, can be used for the design and simulation of practical energy materials. We also outline the outlook for error-corrected, fault-tolerant QC capable of achieving predictive accuracy and quantum advantage for complex material systems.

Algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2026

Searching for the Most Harmful Field Errors in the HSR IR Superconducting Magnets

In this project, we improve beam stability for the Electron-Ion Collider. Magnetic field errors can reduce beam stability, making it essential to identify the field errors that have the greatest impact on accelerator performance. However, this is particularly challenging because beam stability depends on the complex interactions of many magnetic field errors, resulting in a high-dimensional and nonlinear optimization problem. We determine which field errors are the most influential for the large physical aperture superconducting magnet B2PF, a critical magnet in the Interaction Region (IR) in the Hadron Storage Ring (HSR). We complete and analyze nearly 30,000 simulations on the Brookhaven National Laboratory Linux Cluster by varying 18 nonlinear magnetic field errors. We evaluate beam stability using the dynamic aperture and the tune diffusion. We identify the field errors that most strongly influence beam stability and establish quantitative field error tolerances that improve accelerator performance.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

ZEUS: An Efficient GPU Optimization Method Integrating PSO, BFGS, and Automatic Differentiation

We introduce a novel, efficient computational method, ZEUS, for numerical optimization, and provide an open-source implementation. It has four key ingredients: (1) particle swarm optimization (PSO), (2) the use of the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) method, (3) automatic differentiation (AD), and (4) GPUs. Our approach addresses the computational challenges inherent in high-dimensional, non-convex optimization problems. In the first phase of the algorithm, we get a potentially good set of starting points using PSO. Thereafter, we run BFGS independently in parallel from these starting points. BFGS is one of the best-performing algorithms for numerical optimization. However, it requires the gradient of the function being optimized. ZEUS integrates automatic differentiation into BFGS thus avoiding the need for the user to calculate derivatives explicitly. The use of GPUs allows ZEUS to speed up the calculations substantially. We carry out systematic studies to explore the trade-offs between the number of PSO iterations taken, starting points, and BFGS iteration depth. We show that a handful of iterations of PSO can improve global convergence when combined with BFGS. We also present performance studies using common test functions. The source code can be found at https://github.com/fnal-numerics/global-optimizer-gpu.

Soos, Dominik [Old Dominion U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data Summarization and Inference at Scale

This is the final report for the DOE ASCR grant SC-0022260, Data Summarization and Inference at Scale, PI: Alex Pothen, Purdue University. The goal of the project was to solve data-intensive and compute-intensive problems in the physical sciences, engineering, information science, data science, etc. by designing and implementing new algorithms that could work with a subset of the data. The four subgoals were: (a) The solution of problems where the data is too large to be stored in the memory of a computer. In this streaming model of computation, the data arrives as a stream of elements to the computer, each element is processed as it arrives, and a decision is made to discard the data or to store it; only a small subset of the data proportional to the size of the output solution is stored, and when all the data has been streamed, a solution to the problem is computed from the stored subset. (b) The use of machine learning methods to compute solutions to data-intensive problems. The use of GPUs is critical to obtain high performance on machine learning tasks, but their memory sizes are smaller relative to that of CPUs. For large-scale problems, the data is sampled many times, and small samples are used with repetition, for robustness, to compute solutions to inference tasks. This sampling reduces the memory required to solve the problem, but attention is needed to avoid slow convergence to the solutions, and reduced accuracy of inference. We propose submodular optimization, Large Language Models, and physics-informed neural networks to enable GPU computations here. (c) Modeling and visualization of high-dimensional data using interpretable features. Clinical proteomic data sets from immunology for the detection of cancer and other diseases are temporal and high-dimensional, and algorithms for visualizing these data sets using clinically interpretable features are lacking. We propose methods that compute distances based on the optimal transportation problem and graph edit distances to address this problem. We also propose the use of optimal transport-based distances, spatial statistics, and network structure to classify image data sets, We apply these algorithms to electron micrographs of the peripheral nervous system in the digestive tract. (d) The design of data-intensive algorithms on emerging architectures, specifically, noisy, intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. Quantum computers offer the possibility of exploring large solution spaces due to the principle of superposition, but current quantum computers are limited by few qubits, short coherence times due to noise, poor interconections among the qubits, etc. We propose the use of the divide and conquer paradigm to solve large-scale problems, wherein collections of small subproblems are solved on the quantum devices, and the solutions to the subproblems are integrated into a solution for the original problem on a classical computer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A projection method for particle resampling

Particle discretizations of partial differential equations are advantageous for high-dimensional kinetic models in phase-space due to their better scalability than continuum approaches with respect to dimension. Complex processes collectively referred to as particle noise hamper long time simulations with particle methods. One approach to address this problem is particle mesh adaptivity, or remapping, known as particle resampling and remeshing. Here, this work introduces a resampling method that projects particles to and from a (finite element) function space. The method is simple, using standard sparse linear algebra and finite element techniques, and it preserves all moments up to the order of a polynomial represented exactly by the continuum function space. It is distinguished from most other mesh-based methods in that new particle positions and number are decoupled from the mesh, allowing particle and continuum meshes to be adapted relatively independently. While this work is developed with structured particle and continuum phase-space grids on 1X + 1V Vlasov-Poisson models of Landau damping and two-stream instability, the method is well-suited to unstructured grids. Stable long time dynamics are demonstrated up to time T = 500. Reproducibility artifacts and data are publicly available.

Kinetic methods↗

DOE OSTI2025

Generative learning of densities on manifolds

A generative modeling framework is proposed that combines diffusion models and manifold learning to efficiently sample data densities on manifolds. The approach utilizes Diffusion Maps to uncover possible low-dimensional underlying (latent) spaces in the high-dimensional data (ambient) space. Two approaches for sampling from the latent data density are described. The first is a score-based diffusion model, which is trained to map a standard normal distribution to the latent data distribution using a neural network. The second one involves solving an Itô stochastic differential equation in the latent space. Additional realizations of the data are generated by lifting the samples back to the ambient space using Double Diffusion Maps , a recently introduced technique typically employed in studying dynamical system reduction; here the focus lies in sampling densities rather than system dynamics. The proposed approaches enable sampling high dimensional data densities restricted to low-dimensional, a priori unknown manifolds. The efficacy of the proposed framework is demonstrated through a benchmark problem and a material with multiscale structure.

Double diffusion maps↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dimensional Reduction for Sampled Priors and Application to Photometric Redshift Distributions

A typical Bayesian inference on the values of some parameters of interest q from some data D involves running a Markov Chain (MC) to sample from the posterior $p$($q$,$n$|$D$) $\propto$ $\mathcal{L}$($D$|$q$,$n$)$p$(q)$p$($n$), where n are some nuisance parameters with a separable prior. In some cases, the nuisance parameters are high-dimensional, and their prior p(n) is itself defined only by a set of samples that have been drawn from some other MC. The MC for the posterior will typically require evaluation of p(n) at arbitrary values of n, i.e., one needs to provide a density estimator over the full n space from the provided samples. But the high dimensionality of n hinders both the density estimation and the efficiency of the MC for the posterior. We describe a solution to this problem: a linear compression of the n space into a much lower-dimensional space u, which projects away directions in n space that cannot appreciably alter $\mathcal{L}$. The algorithm for doing so is a slight modification to principal components analysis, and is less restrictive on p(n) than other proposed solutions to this issue. We demonstrate this “mode projection” technique using the analysis of 2-point correlation functions of weak lensing fields and galaxy density in the Dark Energy Survey, where n is a binned representation of the redshift distribution n(z) of the galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗