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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records

Voltage positioning using co-optimization of controllable grid assets in radial networks

With increasing penetration of solar PV, some distribution feeders are experiencing highly variable net-load flows and even reverse flows. To optimize distribution systems under such conditions, the scheduling of mechanical devices, such as OLTCs and capacitor banks, needs to take into account forecasted solar PV and actual grid conditions. However, these legacy switching assets are operated on a daily or hourly timescale, due to the wear and tear associated with mechanical switching, which makes them unsuitable for real-time control. Therefore, there is a natural timescale- separation between these slower mechanical assets and the responsive nature of inverter-based resources. In this paper, we present a network admissible convex formulation for holistically scheduling controllable grid assets to position voltage optimally against solar PV. An optimal hourly schedule is presented that utilizes mechanical resources to position the predicted voltages close to nominal values, while minimizing the use of inverter-based resources (i.e., DERs), making them available for control at a faster time-scale (after the uncertainty reveals itself). A convex, inner approximation of the OPF problem is adapted to a mixed-integer linear program that minimizes voltage deviations from nominal (i.e., maximizes voltage margins). Here, the resulting OPF solution respects all the network constraints and is, hence, robust against modeling simplifications. Simulation based analysis on IEEE distribution feeders validates the approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design of Autonomous Medical Response Agent (AMRA) Aggregate Information Dashboard (AID)

Future astronauts in deep space missions will rely on tools and technologies empowering them to self-diagnose and self-treat medical conditions. Given communications delays and limited bandwidth in future long-duration exploration missions (LDEMs), medical decision support technologies must empower the crew to manage routine medical activities, acute medical incidents, as well as emergency medical scenarios independently from ground support.The Autonomous Medical Response Agent (AMRA) is envisioned as a digital tool enabling crew to issue medical complaints and interact with a medical decision support algorithm which develops a differential diagnosis and recommends a treatment protocol for the condition. AMRA will draw from individual crew medical history in addition to crew symptoms to more efficiently identify high-risk medical conditions. A new symptom could be indicative of a chronic condition or a normal adaptation to long-duration spaceflight, but could just as easily be indicative of an adverse vehicle condition affecting the entire crew.While real-time communication with a flight surgeon may not possible, the crew will nonetheless require a means to communicate and document both routine and emergency medical incidents to ground support. Conversely, flight surgeons and medical specialists on the ground will need to understand information such as crew vitals or responses to medical check-ups and examinations within the larger context of crew schedule, mission activities, and vehicle performance. A user interface which establishes communication protocols between an individual crew member and AMRA, as well as ground support to the crew is a significant area of research demanding input and consideration.The design of AMRA AID is intended to: a) represent routine medical activities as well as new (unplanned) medical incidents within the larger context of crew schedule and mission activities, and b) increase confidence between ground support and crew members over the course of LDEMs. Maintaining situation awareness of unplanned medical incidents between ground and crew will be a critical element within LDEMs. Two medical incidents headache and difficulty breathing are being explored within a user interface prototype which captures communications protocols between crew members and mission control, human health monitoring, vehicle or environmental monitoring, as well as crew schedule and mission activities holistically.

Yashar, M.↗

Transient Optimization of an Electrified Gas Turbine Engine Using Machine Learning

Gas turbine engines are designed with sufficient margin to prevent stall under normal operating conditions throughout their life. This compromise ensures that during rapid accelerations, compressor operation remains stable, but at the cost of efficiency and thrust responsiveness. The design margin encompasses multiple sources of uncertainty and systematic deviances from the operating line, the largest of which is the transient allowance. This set-aside accounts for the temporary incoordination of the engine spools during an acceleration while still enabling it to meet the certification requirement to accelerate from low to high power within a specified time, and without experiencing overtemperature, surge, stall, or other detrimental factors. Electrification of the powertrain provides the opportunity to address this reserve and truly optimize the design. The addition of electric machines inherent in hybrid propulsion concepts offers a means to interact with the engine shafts such that the necessary margin can be reduced, which can positively impact the engine design. By adjusting the amount of power extracted from or injected to the engine spools by the electric machines during transient operation, excursions from the operating line can be minimized. Past work using a dynamic engine model has shown that optimization of the fuel flow schedule during acceleration can reduce the required margin while still meeting the time requirement, and results are further improved when combined with power injection and extraction. The current work uses machine learning through a genetic algorithm to address the problem holistically by concurrently optimizing the electric machine power command and fuel flow acceleration schedule using an updated, higher fidelity version of the original engine model.

Stall Margin↗

Transient Optimization of an Electrified Gas Turbine Engine Using Machine Learning

Gas turbine engines are designed with sufficient margin to prevent stall under normal operating conditions throughout their life. This compromise ensures that during rapid accelerations, compressor operation remains stable, but at the cost of efficiency and thrust responsiveness. The design margin encompasses multiple sources of uncertainty and systematic deviances from the operating line, the largest of which is the transient allowance. This set-aside accounts for the temporary incoordination of the engine spools during an acceleration while still enabling it to meet the certification requirement to accelerate from low to high power within a specified time, and without experiencing overtemperature, surge, stall, or other detrimental factors. Electrification of the powertrain provides the opportunity to address this reserve and truly optimize the design. The addition of electric machines inherent in hybrid propulsion concepts offers a means to interact with the engine shafts such that the necessary margin can be reduced, which can positively impact the engine design. By adjusting the amount of power extracted from or injected to the engine spools by the electric machines during transient operation, excursions from the operating line can be minimized. Past work using a dynamic engine model has shown that optimization of the fuel flow schedule during acceleration can reduce the required margin while still meeting the time requirement, and results are further improved when combined with power injection and extraction. The current work uses machine learning through a genetic algorithm to address the problem holistically by concurrently optimizing the electric machine power command and fuel flow acceleration schedule using an updated, higher fidelity version of the original engine model.

Stall Margin↗

Transient Optimization of an Electrified Gas Turbine Engine Using Machine Learning

Gas turbine engines are designed with sufficient margin to prevent stall under normal operating conditions throughout their life. This compromise ensures that during rapid accelerations, compressor operation remains stable, but at the cost of efficiency and thrust responsiveness. The design margin encompasses multiple sources of uncertainty and systematic deviances from the operating line, the largest of which is the transient allowance. This set-aside accounts for the temporary incoordination of the engine spools during an acceleration while still enabling it to meet the certification requirement to accelerate from low to high power within a specified time, and without experiencing overtemperature, surge, stall, or other detrimental factors. Electrification of the powertrain provides the opportunity to address this reserve and truly optimize the design. The addition of electric machines inherent in hybrid propulsion concepts offers a means to interact with the engine shafts such that the necessary margin can be reduced, which can positively impact the engine design. By adjusting the amount of power extracted from or injected to the engine spools by the electric machines during transient operation, excursions from the operating line can be minimized. Past work using a dynamic engine model has shown that optimization of the fuel flow schedule during acceleration can reduce the required margin while still meeting the time requirement, and results are further improved when combined with power injection and extraction. The current work uses machine learning through a genetic algorithm to address the problem holistically by concurrently optimizing the electric machine power command and fuel flow acceleration schedule using an updated, higher fidelity version of the original engine model.

Stall Margin↗

Release a public version of HERON (HERON 2.0) with improved algorithms for the treatment of energy storage

Integrated energy systems (IESs) are essential for decarbonizing electricity and industrial sectors and fully exploiting these systems requires sophisticated planning, scheduling, and dispatching tools to maximize their socio-economic benefits. The Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) is a generic software plugin for the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) to perform stochastic technoeconomic analysis of IES with economic drivers. This report summarizes the updates made to HERON 2.0. Particularly, we demonstrate one of the added features, Function-based Control Mechanics, by comparing a price-based dispatch strategy with the original perfect foresight baselines. Our case studies successfully demonstrate that the model is capable to incorporate artificial control algorithm into the dispatch of IES components. In addition, our results from the price-based strategy indicate that the control strategies of IES components are key to the economic and temporal performance of our model; therefore, more sophisticated dispatch strategies are required to improve the model performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

SHAPA: An interactive software tool for protocol analysis applied to aircrew communications and workload

As modern transport environments become increasingly complex, issues such as crew communication, interaction with automation, and workload management have become crucial. Much research is being focused on holistic aspects of social and cognitive behavior, such as the strategies used to handle workload, the flow of information, the scheduling of tasks, the verbal and non-verbal interactions between crew members. Traditional laboratory performance measures no longer sufficiently meet the needs of researchers addressing these issues. However observational techniques are better equipped to capture the type of data needed and to build models of the requisite level of sophistication. Presented here is SHAPA, an interactive software tool for performing both verbal and non-verbal protocol analysis. It has been developed with the idea of affording the researchers the closest possible degree of engagement with protocol data. The researcher can configure SHAPA to encode protocols using any theoretical framework or encoding vocabulary that is desired. SHAPA allows protocol analysis to be performed at any level of analysis, and it supplies a wide variety of tools for data aggregation, manipulation. The output generated by SHAPA can be used alone or in combination with other performance variables to get a rich picture of the influences on sequences of verbal or nonverbal behavior.

James, Jeffrey M.↗

Data-driven optimization of mixed-integer bi-level multi-follower integrated planning and scheduling problems under demand uncertainty

The coordination of interconnected elements across the different layers of the supply chain is essential for all industrial processes and the key to optimal decision-making. Yet, the modeling and optimization of such interdependent systems are still burdensome. Here we address the simultaneous modeling and optimization of medium-term planning and short-term scheduling problems under demand uncertainty using mixed-integer bi-level multi-follower programming and data-driven optimization. Bi-level multi-follower programs model the natural hierarchy between different layers of supply chain management holistically, while scenario analysis and data-driven optimization allow us to retrieve the guaranteed feasible solutions of the integrated formulation under various demand considerations. We address the data-driven optimization of this challenging class of problems using the DOMINO framework, which was initially developed to solve single-leader single-follower bi-level optimization problems to guaranteed feasibility. This framework is extended to solve single-leader multi-follower stochastic formulations and its performance is characterized by well-known single and multi-product process scheduling case studies. Through our data-driven algorithmic approach, we present guaranteed feasible solutions to linear and nonlinear mixed-integer bi-level formulations of simultaneous planning and scheduling problems and further characterize the effects of the scheduling level complexity on the solution performance, which spans over several hundred continuous and binary variables, and thousands of constraints.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Embedded sensors integrated into critical components for in situ health monitoring of steam turbines

Operational flexibility is desired in today’s coal-fired power plants to balance power grids by compensating for the variable electricity supply from renewable energy sources and distributed gensets. This demanding requirement accelerates materials degradation and makes in-situ health monitoring essential. Life monitoring of components and subsystems is thus seen as essential in assessing material and mechanical behavior to estimate system reliability, move to a conditionbased maintenance strategy and determine time to failure of the units in their actual operating conditions. Vibration monitoring can be exploited for blade tip timing to measure blade vibration amplitude and tip clearance to detect any deterioration taking place in the condition of steam turbine blades. A failure of a rotating blade can lead to severe turbine damage followed by extensive repairs and loss of power production. A blade vibration monitoring system can help early detection of abnormal blade vibration behavior. In conjunction with a health monitoring system, the vibration characteristics can be analyzed to support a pro-active maintenance and inspection schedule. While the feasibility of this inspection technique has been amply demonstrated, there is a need to install induction probes to magnetize the blade for signal output. Siemens, in partnership with Raytheon Technologies Research Corporation (RTRC), proposes a holistic approach to develop embedded sensors to utilize radio frequency for not only coupling to sensors, but as the sensing modality. The goal of this project is to “embed” the novel sensing approach by using either additively manufactured or extruded waveguides on rotating blades for recording, evaluation and monitoring of blade vibrations in Low Pressure turbines, with applications extending to aero engines

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Economic Risk-Informed Maintenance Planning and Asset Management (Final Report)

The proposed work will provide a holistic framework for cost-minimizing risk-informed maintenance planning, including inspection, in light water reactors (LWRs). Specifically, we develop a two-tier framework that (a) coarsely minimizes the total maintenance cost during the remaining normal operating cycle of the plant prior to the next scheduled outage (long-term), subject to safety requirements, and (b) uses the outputs of the first model to develop a secondary optimization model to finely schedule maintenance activities to maximize the financial impact of these activities in the next week (short-term).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Holistic fleet optimization incorporating system design considerations

The methodology described in this article enables a type of holistic fleet optimization that simultaneously considers the composition and activity of a fleet through time as well as the design of individual systems within the fleet. Often, real-world system design optimization and fleet-level acquisition optimization are treated separately due to the prohibitive scale and complexity of each problem. Importantly, this means that fleet-level schedules are typically limited to the inclusion of predefined system configurations and are blind to a rich spectrum of system design alternatives. Similarly, system design optimization often considers a system in isolation from the fleet and is blind to numerous, complex portfolio-level considerations. In reality, these two problems are highly interconnected. To properly address this system-fleet design interdependence, we present a general method for efficiently incorporating multi-objective system design trade-off information into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) fleet-level optimization. This work is motivated by the authors' experience with large-scale DOD acquisition portfolios. However, the methodology is general to any application where the fleet-level problem is a MILP and there exists at least one system having a design trade space in which two or more design objectives are parameters in the fleet-level MILP.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A model to assess the Mars Telecommunications Network relay robustness

The relatively long mission durations and compatible radio protocols of current and projected Mars orbiters have enabled the gradual development of a heterogeneous constellation providing proximity communication services for surface assets. The current and forecasted capability of this evolving network has reached the point that designers of future surface missions consider complete dependence on it. Such designers, along with those architecting network requirements, have a need to understand the robustness of projected communication service. A model has been created to identify the robustness of the Mars Network as a function of surface location and time. Due to the decade-plus time horizon considered, the network will evolve, with emerging productive nodes and nodes that cease or fail to contribute. The model is a flexible framework to holistically process node information into measures of capability robustness that can be visualized for maximum understanding. Outputs from JPL's Telecom Orbit Analysis Simulation Tool (TOAST) provide global telecom performance parameters for current and projected orbiters. Probabilistic estimates of orbiter fuel life are derived from orbit keeping burn rates, forecasted maneuver tasking, and anomaly resolution budgets. Orbiter reliability is estimated probabilistically. A flexible scheduling framework accommodates the projected mission queue as well as potential alterations.

Mars Telecommunications Orbiter (MTO)↗

System-of-Systems Tools for the Analysis of Technological Choices in Space Propulsion

Difficulties in space mission architecture design arise from many factors. Performance, cost, and risk constraints become less obvious due to complex interactions between the systems involved in the mission; decisions regarding long-term goals can heavily impact technological choices for short-term parts of the mission, while conversely decisions in the near future will impact the whole flexibility of long-term plans. Furthermore, the space community is broadening its borders, and space agencies from different countries are collaborating with industry and commercial partners towards large-scale endeavors. This paradigm shift is prompting the development of non-traditional approaches to the design of space missions. This paper reports the results of the first year of a continuing collaboration of the authors to develop and demonstrate System-of-System engineering methodologies for the deep analysis of dependencies and synthesis of robust architectures in exploration mission contexts. We present the procedure that we followed to develop and apply our methodology, obstacles found, steps taken to improve the methods based on the needs of experts and decision makers, required data for the analysis, and results produced by our holistic analysis. In particular, we focus on the analysis of technological choices for space propulsion for a generic cislunar mission, including both complex interactions between subsystems in different type of propulsion and availability of different providers. We identify critical systems and sets of systems based on cascading effects of performance degradation, assessment of the robustness of different designs in the operational domain, and simultaneous analysis of schedule dependencies between the constituent systems.

Guariniello, Cesare↗

Towards Net Zero: Modeling Approach to the Right-Sized Facilities

As the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere increases, the concerns about carbon emissions are growing. Several net-zero initiatives are taking place around the globe to achieve a balance between the GHGs put into the atmosphere and those taken out. While most efforts present a sectorized approach, this paper describes the importance of integrating information across different sectors for effective modeling of carbon emissions and holistic reduction opportunity analysis. Using the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) campus as a test case, this work provides a web-based tool for INL stakeholders to use when engaging in strategic planning to achieve carbon emissions reduction. This net-zero engineering support tool (NEST) uses historical data as foundational information for applying the modeling framework. Prediction of CO 2 emissions throughout project completion integrates various approaches and schedules aimed at energy conservation, fleet decarbonization, and other GHG reduction activities. Using NEST, stakeholders can visualize carbon emissions, electricity consumption, and costs for decision making when planning the pathway for reaching carbon net zero. The INL’s initiative to transition into an EV fleet was used to demonstrate the developed framework and the advantages of using NEST. It was shown that electrifying different fossil-fueled campus vehicles before 2030 with aggressive replacement schedules require high annual capital expenditure (CAPEX), which may not be available. The tool allows decision makers to test different replacement schedules and prioritize those that yield CAPEX below a certain threshold while meeting target milestones. While the demonstration focused on vehicle electrification, the developed framework lays the foundation for further quantitative analysis of other GHG reduction activities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SMC: SCENIC Model Control

NASAs Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) program manages three active networks: the Near Earth Network, the Space Network, and the Deep Space Network. These networks simultaneously support NASA missions and provide communications services to customers worldwide. To efficiently manage these resources and their capabilities, a team of student interns at the NASA Glenn Research Center is developing a distributed system to model the SCaN networks. Once complete, the system shall provide a platform that enables users to perform capacity modeling of current and prospective missions with finer-grained control of information between several simulation and modeling tools. This will enable the SCaN program to access a holistic view of its networks and simulate the effects of modifications in order to provide NASA with decisional information. The development of this capacity modeling system is managed by NASAs Strategic Center for Education, Networking, Integration, and Communication (SCENIC). Three primary third-party software tools offer their unique abilities in different stages of the simulation process. MagicDraw provides UMLSysML modeling, AGIs Systems Tool Kit simulates the physical transmission parameters and de-conflicts scheduled communication, and Riverbed Modeler (formerly OPNET) simulates communication protocols and packet-based networking. SCENIC developers are building custom software extensions to integrate these components in an end-to-end space communications modeling platform. A central control module acts as the hub for report-based messaging between client wrappers. Backend databases provide information related to mission parameters and ground station configurations, while the end user defines scenario-specific attributes for the model. The eight SCENIC interns are working under the direction of their mentors to complete an initial version of this capacity modeling system during the summer of 2015. The intern team is composed of four students in Computer Science, two in Computer Engineering, one in Electrical Engineering, and one studying Space Systems Engineering.

Simulation↗

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗

Supportability Challenges, Metrics, and Key Decisions for Future Human Spaceflight

Future crewed missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) represent a logistical challenge that is unprecedented in human space flight. Astronauts will travel farther and stay in space for longer than any previous mission, far from timely abort or resupply from Earth. Under these conditions, supportability { defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations of systems { will be a much more significant driver of space system lifecycle properties than it has been in the past. This paper presents an overview of supportability for future human space flight. The particular challenges of future missions are discussed, with the differences between past, present, and future missions highlighted. The relationship between supportability metrics and mission cost, performance, schedule, and risk is also discussed. A set of pro- posed strategies for managing supportability is presented (including reliability growth, uncertainty reduction, level of repair, commonality, redundancy, In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) (including the use of material recycling and In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) for spares and maintenance items), reduced complexity, and spares inventory decisions such as the use of predeployed or cached spares - along with a discussion of the potential impacts of each of those strategies. References are provided to various sources that describe these supportability metrics and strategies, as well as associated modeling and optimization techniques, in greater detail. Overall, supportability is an emergent system characteristic and a holistic challenge for future system development. System designers and mission planners must carefully consider and balance the supportability metrics and decisions described in this paper in order to enable safe and effective beyond-LEO human space flight.

Owens, Andrew C.↗