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The International Space Station: New Capabilities for Disaster Response and Humanitarian Aid

The International Space Station (ISS) has been acquiring Earth imagery since 2000, primarily in the form of astronaut photography using hand-held film and digital cameras. Recent additions of more sophisticated multispectral and hyperspectral sensor systems have expanded both the capabilities and relevance of the ISS to basic research, applied Earth science, and development of new sensor technologies. Funding opportunities established within NASA, the US National Laboratories and the international partner organizations have generated instrument proposals that will further enhance these capabilities. With both internal and external sensor location options, and the availability of both automated and human-tended operational environments, the ISS is a unique platform within the constellation of Earth-observing satellites currently in orbit. Current progress and challenges associated with development of ISS terrestrial remote sensing capabilities in the area of disaster response and support of relief efforts will be presented. The ISS orbit allows for imaging of the Earth's surface at varying times of day and night, providing opportunities for data collection over approximately 95% of the populated regions. These opportunities are distinct from--yet augment--the data collection windows for the majority of sensors on polar-orbiting satellites. In addition to this potential for "being in the right place at the right time" to collect critical information on an evolving disaster, the presence of a human crew also allows for immediate recognition of an event from orbit, notification of relevant organizations on the ground, and re-tasking of available remote sensing resources to support humanitarian response and relief efforts. Challenges to establishing an integrated response capability are both technical (coordination of sensor targeting and data collection, rapid downlink and posting of data to a central accessible hub, timely generation and distribution of relevant data products) and operational (notification and engagement of sensor support teams, international partner agency sanction of astronaut support activities). To better collaborate on common issues and strengthen applications, including using the data to support disaster response, we established an ISS Program Science Forum Working Group for Earth Observations comprised of representatives from the international partner agencies. This international forum welcomes input and support from relevant United Nations task groups regarding our disaster response and humanitarian aid to enable development of the ISS capabilities in this area for greatest value to the international community.

Stefanov, William↗

Earth Science Data and Models for Improved Targeting of Humanitarian Aid

Humanitarian assistance to developing countries has long focused on countries that have political, economic and strategic interest to the United States. Recent changes in global security concerns have heightened the perception that humanitarian action is becoming increasingly politicized. This is seen to be largely driven by the 'global war on terror' along with a push by donors and the United Nations for closer integration between humanitarian action and diplomatic, military and other spheres of engagement in conflict and crisis-affected states (HPG 2010). As we enter an era of rising commodity prices and increasing uncertainty in global food production due to a changing climate, scientific data and analysis will be increasingly important to improve the targeting of humanitarian assistance. Earth science data enables appropriate humanitarian response to complex food emergencies that arise in regions outside the areas of current strategic and security focus. As the climate changes, new places will become vulnerable to food insecurity and will need emergency assistance. Earth science data and multidisciplinary models will enable an information-based comparison of need that goes beyond strategic and political considerations to identify new hotspots of food insecurity as they emerge. These analyses will improve aid targeting and timeliness while reducing strategic risk by highlighting new regions at risk of crisis in a rapidly changing world. Improved targeting with respect to timing and location could reduce cost while increasing the likelihood that those who need aid get it.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Early Warning of Food Security Crises in Urban Areas: The Case of Harare, Zimbabwe, 2007

In 2007, the citizens of Harare, Zimbabwe began experiencing an intense food security crisis. The crisis, due to a complex mix of poor government policies, high inflation rates and production decline due to drought, resulted in a massive increase in the number of food insecure people in Harare. The international humanitarian aid response to this crisis was largely successful due to the early agreement among donors and humanitarian aid officials as to the size and nature of the problem. Remote sensing enabled an early and decisive movement of resources greatly assisting the delivery of food aid in a timely manner. Remote sensing data gave a clear and compelling assessment of significant crop production shortfalls, and provided donors of humanitarian assistance a single number around which they could come to agreement. This use of remote sensing data typifies how remote sensing may be used in early warning systems in Africa.

Brown, Molly E.↗

International Space Station Data Collection for Disaster Response

Natural disasters - including such events as tropical storms, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires -effect hundreds of millions of people worldwide, and also cause billions of dollars (USD) in damage to the global economy. Remotely sensed data acquired by orbital sensor systems has emerged as a vital tool to identify the extent of damage resulting from a natural disaster, as well as providing near-real time mapping support to response efforts on the ground and humanitarian aid efforts. The International Space Station (ISS) is a unique terrestrial remote sensing platform for acquiring disaster response imagery. Unlike automated remote-sensing platforms it has a human crew; is equipped with both internal and externally-mounted remote sensing instruments; and has an inclined, low-Earth orbit that provides variable views and lighting (day and night) over 95 percent of the inhabited surface of the Earth. As such, it provides a useful complement to free-flyer based, sun-synchronous sensor systems in higher altitude polar orbits. While several nations have well-developed terrestrial remote sensing programs and assets for data collection, many developing nations do not have ready access to such resources. The International Charter, Space and Major Disasters (also known as the "International Disaster Charter", or IDC; http://www.disasterscharter.org/home) addresses this disparity. It is an agreement between agencies of several countries to provide - on a best-effort basis - remotely sensed data of natural disasters to requesting countries in support of disaster response. The lead US agency for interaction with the IDC is the United States Geological Survey (USGS); when an IDC request or "activation" is received, the USGS notifies the science teams for NASA instruments with targeting information for data collection. In the case of the ISS, the Earth Sciences and Remote Sensing (ESRS) Unit, part of the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science Directorate and supporting the ISS Program Science Office at NASA's Johnson Space Center, receives notification from the USGS and coordinates targeting and data collection with the NASA ISS sensor teams. If data is collected, it is passed back to the USGS for posting on their Hazards Data Distribution System and made available for download. The ISS International Partners (CSA, ESA, JAXA, Roscosmos/Energia) have their own procedures for independently supporting IDC activations using their assets on ISS, and there is currently no joint coordination with NASA ISS sensor teams. Following completion of ISS assembly, NASA remote sensing assets began collecting IDC response data in May 2012. The initial NASA ISS sensor systems available to respond to IDC activations included the ISS Agricultural Camera (ISSAC), an internal multispectral visible-near infrared wavelength system mounted in the Window Observational Research Facility, or WORF; the Crew Earth Observations (CEO) Facility, where the crew collects imagery through Station windows using off-the-shelf handheld digital visible-wavelength cameras; and the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Oceans (HICO), a visible to near-infrared system mounted externally on the Japan Experiment Module Exposed Facility. The ISSAC completed its primary mission and was removed from the WORF in January 2013. It was replaced by the very high resolution ISS SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System (ISERV) Pathfinder, a visible-wavelength digital camera, telescope, and pointing system. Since the start of IDC response by NASA sensors on the ISS in May 2012 and as of this report, there have been eighty IDC activations; NASA sensor systems have collected data for twenty-three of these events. Of the twenty-three successful data collections, five involved 2 or more ISS sensor systems responding to the same event. Data has also been collected by International Partners in response to natural disasters, most notably JAXA and Roscosmos/Energia through the Urugan program. Data collected in response to IDC activations is delivered by the ISS sensor teams to the ESRS for quality review and transfer to the USGS, where it is ingested into the Hazards Data Distribution System, or HDDS (https://hdds.usgs.gov/hdds2/; figure 1). This system allows the local agencies that issued the IDC activation request to review and download data. The data is then used to develop secondary products useful for humanitarian response such as flood maps. As of this report, approximately 1000 images collected by NASA ISS sensor systems have been downloaded from the HDDS, indicating that the ISS has assumed a valuable role in disaster response efforts. The ISS is also a unique platform in that it will have multiple users over its lifetime, and that no single remote sensing system has a permanent internal or external berth. This scheduled turnover provides for development of new remote sensing capabilities relevant to disaster response -as well as both research and applied science-and represents a significant contribution to continuance and enhancement of the NASA mission to investigate changes on our home planet.

Stefanov, William L.↗

Transitioning Earth Remote Sensing Data to Benefit Society: A Paradigm for a Center of Excellence

Over the past decade there has been a substantial increase in the number of Earth remote sensing satellites launched for research and operational usage and numerous others planned by the international community. These satellites have been used to varying degrees by their supporting agencies for weather and environmental monitoring, climate studies, disaster monitoring and response, and other humanitarian activities. While there are success stories on useful applications of remote sensing data, the broader use of these satellite assets by other organizations and entities has been limited for a number of reasons including lack of data services, data dissemination issues, and a general failure to engage the broader end user community with useful data access and knowledge of how to use the data and products. This paper describes some of these current limitations on the broader use of Earth remote sensing data by the international community and describes the concept of a general "Center of Excellence" to facilitate the development, transition, and utilization of these Earth remote sensing observations by the broader international community.

Transition to operations↗

Supporting Hazard Analysis for Wildfire Response Using fmdtools and MIKA

The System Wide Safety (SWS) Safety Demonstrator (SD) Series drives development of an increasingly capable In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) focusing on humanitarian applications, starting with wildfire response (SD-1). The goals of this report are to (1) provide an early hazard analysis and mitigation evaluation of wildfire response to support these efforts and (2) provide a demonstration of capabilities of the Fault Model Design Tools (fmdtools) and Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) tools. fmdtools provides a modeling, simulation, and resiliency analysis framework in which a wildfire response model, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (SMARt-STEReO), is built. MIKA is an intelligent knowledge manager with several capabilities, including assisting in hazard analysis by extracting and analyzing hazards from historical incident reports. The following topics are covered in the report: Understanding Wildfire Hazard Dynamics. We provide a description and simulated examples of how hazards occur in the SMARt-STEReO model of wildfire response and their effect on its outcome. This provides a common mental model and focuses the analysis presented in the remainder of the report. Wildfire Hazard Identification. MIKA identifies wildfire hazards from three relevant datasets: the ICS-209-PLUS, SAFECOM, and SAFENET. Hazards are manually organized into a taxonomy and MIKA analyzes each hazard’s effects, likelihood, severity, and risk. Evaluating Mitigation Strategies. The SMARt-STEReO wildfire response model built in fmdtools evaluates a subset of identified hazards. Specifically, we simulate the effect of communications faults and equipment faults on operator safety, the effect of changing winds and flammability, and a scenario with multiple ignition points and heavy smoke. Tool Limitations and Usage Considerations. We provide a discussion of appropriate tool use cases as well as limitations and considerations for usage. The tool findings are used to synthesize recommendations for wildfire response operations, which can be captured as part of an IASMS. Key recommendations are as follows: Hazards are identified from a broad spectrum of sources including aircraft subsystems, operational sources, and ground crew operations. Highest risk operational environment hazards identified are Evacuations. The highest risk manned aerial operations hazard categorized is Jumper Operations Mishap. Ground crew hazards that are highest risk are Burns, Cargo Operations Overhead, Dehydration, Entrapment, Falling Objects, Heart Attacks, Heat Exhaustion, Inadequate Training or Certification, Vehicle Breakdown, and Vehicle Collision. Modelled containment failures arise from a mismatch between the difficulty of the firefighting scenario and the capacity (e.g., speed, effectiveness, awareness) of the response. In firefighting scenarios where containment is possible (e.g., because the fire does not spread too quickly), these mismatches can occur because of a change in environmental conditions (e.g., wind, flammability, etc) or because of planning, equipment, or communications faults. Improvements to communications increase the capacity of the firefighting response by reducing the time needed to respond to the fire. While surveillance does not increase this capacity by itself, it increases operator safety by increasing state awareness, enabling firefighters to evade approaching fires. Increasing both has a synergistic effect. In general, these performance and resilience increases generalize over fault scenarios as well as unforeseen changes to circumstances (i.e., wind, aridity, etc.). However, these improvements need to be designed so as not to make the system prone to persistent large-scale communications outages, which can reduce performance.

Hazard analysis↗

International Space Station Data Collection for Disaster Response

Remotely sensed data acquired by orbital sensor systems has emerged as a vital tool to identify the extent of damage resulting from a natural disaster, as well as providing near-real time mapping support to response efforts on the ground and humanitarian aid efforts. The International Space Station (ISS) is a unique terrestrial remote sensing platform for acquiring disaster response imagery. Unlike automated remote-sensing platforms it has a human crew; is equipped with both internal and externally-mounted remote sensing instruments; and has an inclined, low-Earth orbit that provides variable views and lighting (day and night) over 95 percent of the inhabited surface of the Earth. As such, it provides a useful complement to autonomous sensor systems in higher altitude polar orbits. NASA remote sensing assets on the station began collecting International Disaster Charter (IDC) response data in May 2012. The initial NASA ISS sensor systems responding to IDC activations included the ISS Agricultural Camera (ISSAC), mounted in the Window Observational Research Facility (WORF); the Crew Earth Observations (CEO) Facility, where the crew collects imagery using off-the-shelf handheld digital cameras; and the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Ocean (HICO), a visible to near-infrared system mounted externally on the Japan Experiment Module Exposed Facility. The ISSAC completed its primary mission in January 2013. It was replaced by the very high resolution ISS SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System (ISERV) Pathfinder, a visible-wavelength digital camera, telescope, and pointing system. Since the start of IDC response in 2012 there have been 108 IDC activations; NASA sensor systems have collected data for thirty-two of these events. Of the successful data collections, eight involved two or more ISS sensor systems responding to the same event. Data has also been collected by International Partners in response to natural disasters, most notably JAXA and Roscosmos/Energia through the Urugan program.

Stefanov, William L.↗

Earth Observations from the International Space Station: Benefits for Humanity

The International Space Station (ISS) is a unique terrestrial remote sensing platform for observation of the Earth's land surface, oceans, and atmosphere. Unlike automated remote-sensing platforms it has a human crew; is equipped with both internal and externally-mounted active and passive remote sensing instruments; and has an inclined, low-Earth orbit that provides variable views and lighting (day and night) over 95 percent of the inhabited surface of the Earth. As such, it provides a useful complement to autonomous, sun-synchronous sensor systems in higher altitude polar orbits. Beginning in May 2012, NASA ISS sensor systems have been available to respond to requests for data through the International Charter, Space and Major Disasters, also known as the "International Disaster Charter" or IDC. Data from digital handheld cameras, multispectral, and hyperspectral imaging systems has been acquired in response to IDC activations and delivered to requesting agencies through the United States Geological Survey. The characteristics of the ISS for Earth observation will be presented, including past, current, and planned NASA, International Partner, and commercial remote sensing systems. The role and capabilities of the ISS for humanitarian benefit, specifically collection of remotely sensed disaster response data, will be discussed.

Stefanov, William L.↗

Perspectives on flood forecast-based early action and opportunities for Earth observations

This paper seeks to identify opportunities to integrate Earth observations (EO) into flood forecast-based early action and propose future directions for research and collaboration between EO and humanitarian communities. Forecast-based early action (FbA) is an approach to shift disaster response toward anticipation to mitigate impacts to at-risk communities; however, timely and accurate information is needed in the development of data-based triggers and thresholds for action. Therefore, this paper considers the readiness of a wide range of EO for flood monitoring and forecasting in the design, operations, and evaluation phases of FbA. The most significant opportunities for EO to inform FbA efforts lie in the design and evaluation phases, as EO can aid in the development of impact-based triggers. The EO products most readily applicable include precipitation, streamflow estimates, and exposure mapping, and those requiring the greatest amount of further research include vulnerability and impact assessments. This paper identifies collaboration opportunities for the EO and humanitarian communities to create tailored products, such as overlays combining flood extents with exposure maps. Such collaboration opportunities can be fostered by open data sharing, data verification efforts, and incentives for supporting boundary organizations capable of enabling the use of EO for FbA.

disasters↗

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

Brown, Molly E.↗

International Telemedicine/Disaster Medicine Conference: Papers and Presentations

The first International Telemedicine/Disaster Medicine Conference was held in Dec. 1991. The overall purpose was to convene an international, multidisciplinary gathering of experts to discuss the emerging field of telemedicine and assess its future directions; principally the application of space technology to disaster response and management, but also to clinical medicine, remote health care, public health, and other needs. This collection is intended to acquaint the reader with recent landmark efforts in telemedicine as applied to disaster management and remote health care, the technical requirements of telemedicine systems, the application of telemedicine and telehealth in the U.S. space program, and the social and humanitarian dimensions of this area of medicine.

Source record↗

The International Space Station: A Unique Platform for Remote Sensing of Natural Disasters

Assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) was completed in 2012, and the station is now fully operational as a platform for remote sensing instruments tasked with collecting scientific data about the Earth system. Remote sensing systems are mounted inside the ISS, primarily in the U.S. Destiny Module's Window Observational Research Facility (WORF), or are located on the outside of the ISS on any of several attachment points. While NASA and other space agencies have had remote sensing systems orbiting Earth and collecting publicly available data since the early 1970s, these sensors are carried onboard free-flying, unmanned satellites. These satellites are traditionally placed into Sun-synchronous polar orbits that allow imaging of the entire surface of the Earth to be repeated with approximately the same Sun illumination (typically local solar noon) over specific areas, with set revisit times that allow uniform data to be taken over long time periods and enable straightforward analysis of change over time. In contrast, the ISS has an inclined, Sun-asynchronous orbit (the solar illumination for data collections over any location changes as the orbit precesses) that carries it over locations on the Earth between approximately 52degnorth and 52deg south latitudes (figure 1). The ISS is also unique among NASA orbital platforms in that it has a human crew. The presence of a crew provides options not available to robotic sensors and platforms, such as the ability to collect unscheduled data of an unfolding event using handheld digital cameras as part of the Crew Earth Observations (CEO) facility and on-the-fly assessment of environmental conditions, such as cloud cover, to determine whether conditions are favorable for data collection. The crew can also swap out internal sensor systems installed in the WORF as needed. The ISS orbit covers more than 90 percent of the inhabited surface of the Earth, allowing the ISS to pass over the same ground locations at different times of the day and night. This is important for two reasons: 1) certain surface processes (i.e., development of coastal fog banks) occur at times other than local solar noon, making it difficult to collect relevant data from traditional satellite platforms, and 2) it provides opportunities for the ISS to collect data for short-duration events, such as natural disasters, that polar-orbiting satellites may miss due to their orbital dynamics - in essence, the ISS can be "in the right place at the right time" to collect data. An immediate application of ISS remote sensing data collection is that the data can be used to provide information for humanitarian aid after a natural disaster. This activity contributes directly to the station's Benefits to Humanity mission. The International Charter, Space and Major Disasters (also known as the International Disaster Charter, or IDC) is an agreement between agencies of several countries to provide - on a best-effort basis - remotely sensed data related to natural disasters to requesting countries in support of disaster response. In the United States, the lead agency for interaction with the IDC is the United States Geological Survey (USGS); when an IDC request, or activation, is received, the USGS notifies the science teams for NASA instruments with targeting information for data collection. In the case of the ISS, Earth scientists in the JSC ARES Directorate, in association with the ISS Program Science Office, coordinate targeting and data collection with the USGS. If data is collected, it is passed back to the USGS for posting on its Hazards Data Distribution System and made available for download. The ISS was added to the USGS's list of NASA remote sensing assets that could respond to IDC activations in May 2012. Initially, the NASA ISS sensor systems available to respond to IDC activations included the ISS Agricultural Camera (ISSAC), an internal multispectral visible-near infrared wavelength system mounted in the WORF; CEO, a project that collects imagery through the ISS windows using off-the-shelf handheld digital visible-wavelength cameras; and the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Oceans (HICO), a visible to near-infrared system mounted externally on the Japanese Experiment Module - Exposed Facility. Since May 2012, there have been 37 IDC activations; ISS sensor systems have collected data for 10 of these events.

Stefanov, William L.↗

People, Places and Pixels: Remote Sensing in the Service of Society

What is the role of Earth remote sensing and other geospatial technologies in our society? Recent global events have brought into focus the role of geospatial science and technology such as remote sensing, GIS, GPS in assisting the professionals who are responsible for operations such as rescue and recovery of sites after a disaster or a terrorist act. This paper reviews the use of recent remote sensing products from satellites such as IKONOS in these efforts. Aerial and satellite imagery used in land mine detection has been evaluated and the results of this evaluation will be discussed. Synopsis of current and future ISS Earth Remote Sensing capabilities will be provided. The role of future missions in humanitarian use of remote sensing will be explored.

Lulla, Kamlesh↗

New Local, National and Regional Cereal Price Indices for Improved Identification of Food Insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises.

Brown, Molly E.↗

The Impact of Flooding on Food Security Across Africa

Recent record rainfall and flood events have prompted increased attention to flood impacts on human systems. Information regarding flood effects on food security is of particular importance for humanitarian organizations and is especially valuable across Africa's rural areas that contribute to regional food supplies. We quantitatively evaluate where and to what extent flooding impacts food security across Africa, using a Granger causality analysis and panel modeling approaches. Within our modeled areas, we find that ∼12% of the people that experienced food insecurity from 2009 to 2020 had their food security status affected by flooding. Furthermore, flooding and its associated meteorological conditions can simultaneously degrade food security locally while enhancing it at regional spatial scales, leading to large variations in overall food security outcomes. Dedicated data collection at the intersection of flood events and associated food security measures across different spatial and temporal scales are required to better characterize the extent of flood impact and inform preparedness, response, and recovery needs.

Connor Reed↗

LIS-Hydro: Authoritative Source for OCONUS Hydro-Intelligence

U.S. military forces are often tasked to participate in a variety of transboundary water-related decision-making activities, including humanitarian assistance operations through Department of State tasking, support of in-country infrastructure development activities that help develop or improve diplomatic relationships, and support of transboundary water treaty negotiations or disputes to reduce risk of conflict caused by water security issues. The U.S. intelligence communities have identified the coordination over shared water resources as an area of significant concern to U.S. national security (U.S. National Defense Strategy, 2018). Such transboundary water issues are projected to intensify in the future under increasingly complex population dynamics, political tensions due to parallel issues, and a changing climate. A 2017 joint NASA, USACE/RDC, and U.S. Air Force co-sponsored workshop revealed a lack of sufficient decision support tools and access to timely technical and contextual information needed to assess and respond to potential water-related threats around the world. The need for an integrated operational service, with the capacity to combine and synthesize hydrological modeling, assimilation, forecasting, and visualization capabilities across the U.S. Government, was highlighted as a key recommendation. In direct response, a subset of the U.S. Department of Defense, National Intelligence Community, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory are collaborating on the development of a fully integrated hydro-modeling and streamflow prediction system (i.e., LIS-Hydro). Completion of the project and sustainment of the operational capability by Air Force Weather will establish a national asset to assist federal agencies implement government-wide strategies around water resources (U.S. Global Water Strategy, 2017). The hydrological products and services will, for the very first time, establish a routinely available authoritative source of global water intelligence information supporting war-fighters, planners, and decision makers at all echelons and services of the U.S. military, Federal government, and intelligence community. A summary of the interagency scientific collaboration in addressing some of the key gaps and needs identified during the 2017 workshop will be presented.

Land Information System↗