Combining physics-based and data-driven techniques for reliable hybrid analysis and modeling using the corrective source term approach
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
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Results for “hybrid analysis and modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Deep neural network enabled corrective source term approach to hybrid analysis and modeling
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97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A hybrid data–model approach to map soil thickness in mountain hillslopes
Abstract. Soil thickness plays a central role in the interactions between vegetation, soils, and topography, where it controls the retention and release of water, carbon, nitrogen, and metals. However, mapping soil thickness, here defined as the mobile regolith layer, at high spatial resolution remains challenging. Here, we develop a hybrid model that combines a process-based model and empirical relationships to estimate the spatial heterogeneity of soil thickness with fine spatial resolution (0.5 m). We apply this model to two aspects of hillslopes (southwest- and northeast-facing, respectively) in the East River watershed in Colorado. Two independent measurement methods – auger and cone penetrometer – are used to sample soil thickness at 78 locations to calibrate the local value of unconstrained parameters within the hybrid model. Sensitivity analysis using the hybrid model reveals that the diffusion coefficient used in hillslope diffusion modeling has the largest sensitivity among all input parameters. In addition, our results from both sampling and modeling show that, in general, the northeast-facing hillslope has a deeper soil layer than the southwest-facing hillslope. By comparing the soil thickness estimated between a machine-learning approach and this hybrid model, the hybrid model provides higher accuracy and requires less sampling data. Modeling results further reveal that the southwest-facing hillslope has a slightly faster surface soil erosion rate and soil production rate than the northeast-facing hillslope, which suggests that the relatively less dense vegetation cover and drier surface soils on the southwest-facing slopes influence soil properties. With seven parameters in total for calibration, this hybrid model can provide a realistic soil thickness map with a relatively small amount of sampling dataset comparing to machine-learning approach. Integrating process-based modeling and statistical analysis not only provides a thorough understanding of the fundamental mechanisms for soil thickness prediction but also integrates the strengths of both statistical approaches and process-based modeling approaches.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Forecasting for ESCAPE: A Multi-Institution Hybrid Forecasting and Nowcasting Operation for Sea-Breeze Convection Supporting a Ground-Based and Airborne Field Campaign
The Experiment of Sea-Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field project deployed two aircraft and ground-based assets in the vicinity of Houston, Texas, between 27 May and 2 July 2022, examining how meteorological conditions, dynamics, and aerosols control the initiation, early growth stage, and evolution of coastal convective clouds. To ensure that airborne- and ground-based assets were deployed appropriately, a forecasting and nowcasting team was formed. Daily forecasts guided real-time decision-making by assessing synoptic weather conditions, environmental aerosol, and a variety of atmospheric modeling data to assign a probability for meeting specific ESCAPE campaign objectives. During the research flights, a small team of forecasters provided “nowcasting” support by analyzing radar, satellite, and new model data in real time. The nowcasting team proved invaluable to the campaign operation, as sometimes changing environmental conditions affected, for example, the timing of convective initiation. In addition to the success of the forecasting and nowcasting teams, the ESCAPE campaign offered a unique “testbed” opportunity where in-person and virtual support both contributed to campaign objectives. The forecasting and nowcasting teams were each composed of new and experienced forecasters alike, where new forecasters were given invaluable experience that would otherwise be difficult to attain. Both teams received training on forecast models, map analysis, Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), and thermodynamic sounding analysis before the beginning of the campaign. In this article, the ESCAPE forecasting and nowcasting teams reflect on these experiences, providing potentially useful advice for future field campaigns requiring forecasting and nowcasting support in a hybrid virtual/in-person framework.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Construction of Reduced Order Models for the HYBRID Repository
Reduced order models (ROMs) present an opportunity to reduce the computational burden of IES analysis using HYBRID models without significantly sacrificing data accuracy. Other applications of ROMs are digital twins, stochastic optimization studies, model exporting, and protection of proprietary information. In this paper the capability of creating ROMs of the models within the HYBRID repository will be demonstrated. Specifically, a linear regression ROM of a gas turbine and a dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) ROM of a lithium-ion battery are constructed.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Hybrid Symbolic-Numerical Modeling and Parametric Stability Analysis of DC–AC Power Systems
Hybrid DC-AC power systems integrating diverse inverter-based resources (IBRs) and multi-terminal high-voltage direct current (MTDC) networks represent a promising architecture for future power grids, while introducing challenges for modeling, stability analysis, and control design. This paper develops a hybrid symbolic-numerical modeling framework and tool to characterize the parametric small-signal stability of DC-AC coupled power systems. The proposed approach constructs parametric state-space models to enable efficient representation of system dynamics under varying control parameters and network configurations, with target parameters retained as symbolic variables and the remainder treated numerically. The stability analysis framework covers eigenvalue, sensitivity, and stability boundary and region characterization. Enhanced linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques are proposed to directly certify small-signal stability over regions of parameter space while also reducing the conservativeness and computational burden. The resulting tools and frameworks enable rapid parametric model construction across diverse grid conditions, thereby facilitating stability-informed control and operation in complex DC–AC power systems.
DC–AC power systems↗
FORCE Integration with DRAFT and IDAES
Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to produce multiple commodities and improve economic viability under uncertain market conditions. Technical and economic analysis of IES requires modeling of complex processes with software models having enough fidelity to capture real-world dynamics while still being capable of running using reasonable computing resources. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Recent developments for the FORCE toolset have centered on strengthening the flexibility and modularity to link with external models and other available software to enhance IES simulations. Adding versatility to the FORCE toolset improves capability resulting in better techno-economic simulation of nuclear and IES components (both in potential higher fidelity and accuracy to expected performance after deployment). It also helps leverage existing work in the IES field and improve efficiency in national code development. This report focuses on two such endeavors: integration of the Dynamic Reliability Analysis Framework Tool (DRAFT) and the Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) software packages into FORCE.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
FORCE-DISPATCHES Integration - Initial Demonstration
Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to improve economic viability under uncertain market and weather conditions. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Continuous efforts and investments from the IES programs have been made to expand and improve the versatility of the FORCE toolset in fiscal year 2022. Code-coupling and cross-tool communication have been important methods for improving this versatility. This report focuses on an additional workflow in the HERON tool for capacity and dispatch stochastic optimization through integration with the external tool Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES). DISPATCHES was primarily developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory, in collaboration with other national laboratories, which included INL, universities, and industry partners. It is coupled to a library of algebraic models for specific plant components, and to a framework for stochastic optimization different from that provided in the current Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN)-running-RAVEN algorithm in HERON. HERON currently conducts stochastic optimization via an outer-inner loop: it optimizes over variable capacity on the outer loop, and at each step within the capacity parameter space, conducts an inner optimization over scenarios (of market signals, demand, and/or weather patterns) and hourly dispatch throughout a user-specified number of years. On the other hand, DISPATCHES conducts stochastic optimization via an “all-at-once” strategy in which capacity variables are optimized at the same level as dispatch variables, as all scenarios are considered at once. The latter method works especially well for projects of limited size and project length, as the necessary computational power and memory increases with the number of variables and scenarios. The new capability to use the DISPATCHES workflow in HERON enhances standalone simulations by leveraging FORCE tools—namely, the economic metrics from the Tool for Economic Analysis (TEAL) and reduced-order model (ROM) sampling from RAVEN. The initial demonstration of the DISPATCHES workflow simulates an existing nuclear-case flowsheet within the DISPATCHES repository—this models a NPP with a secondary revenue stream for hydrogen production. Electrical output from the plant is converted to hydrogen via a proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer, hydrogen tanks are used for storage, and an additional turbine is added for hydrogen combustion. Continued work regarding this FORCE-DISPATCHES integration will include automatic generation of DISPATCHES models from HERON inputs, offering analysts the option of using either the RAVEN-runsRAVEN or DISPATCHES workflow to solve technoeconomic optimization problems.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
An analysis of the hybrid internal mass modeling approach in EnergyPlus
Accurate simulation of building system dynamics is particularly important for understanding building energy flexibility. Among all dynamics in a building, a zone temperature’s variation is especially important, as it significantly affects a building’s electricity load profile when its heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) system is controlled with on/off cycles or setpoint reset strategies. To accurately simulate a zone temperature’s dynamics, internal mass needs to be modeled carefully. In this paper, we compare the two internal mass modeling approaches provided by EnergyPlus, i.e., internal mass object and zone air capacitance multiplier, to better understand their impacts on zone temperature simulation. Real building zone temperature dynamic data from small- and medium-sized office buildings are analyzed and compared with simulated data. In particular, we illustrate the effectiveness of a hybrid method of the two EnergyPlus modeling approaches, which yields more realistic zone temperature dynamics, especially when the zone is conditioned with heat pump systems with on/off cycling.
Chen, Zhelun↗
Grey-box modeling and application for building energy simulations - A critical review
Grey-box modeling, as one of the three fundamental modeling techniques for building energy models, has many advantages compared with black-box modeling and white-box modeling. Additionally, it has been widely applied to solve problems of building technologies, such as building load estimation, control and optimization, and building-grid integration. However, a thorough review of grey-box modeling is not available. This review study systematically investigated various aspects of grey-box modeling for buildings. First, the fundamental aspects of grey-box modeling are presented, including the theoretical background, modeling of building elements, modeling order, modeling diagram, and order reduction. Second, the detailed modeling approaches are discussed. Third, multiple applications of grey-box modeling are investigated for building energy domain, which are categorized into the following groups: heat dynamics analysis, thermal load estimation, building control and optimization, district/urban scale energy modeling, and building-grid integration. Finally, the available software packages for grey-box modeling are compared. Overall, the challenges of using grey-box modeling can be summarized as follows: (1) the theoretical limitations and assumptions of grey-box modeling are unclear; (2) grey-box model naming convention and structure are confusing; (3) grey-box model creation is vague; (4) suitable applications of grey-box models are unknown; and (5) grey-box models lack unified software solutions for wider adoption.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Error analysis of a hybrid control drum worth model
This paper presents a perturbation-based model for control drum worth prediction which employs both physics-based and statistics-based components. Control drums, or control shims, are cylindrical in shape and span the axial length of the core. A portion of the cylinder is coated in neutron absorbing material and the drum can rotate to introduce the absorbing material to the body of the core to reduce reactivity. The model can be expensive to create due to the requirement for full-core Monte Carlo eigenvalue calculations. Therefore, it is important to analyze how the errors in Monte Carlo calculated k{sub eff} used for model training affect model performance. It was found that the error in predicted criticalities could average to 70 pcm in the most complex form of the model and 215 pcm in the simplest form of the model. Furthermore, it was found that the Monte Carlo uncertainty in quantities calculated with Serpent used to train the models had minimal impact on the error observed from the model. Lastly, one of the forms of the hybrid model could be trained in considerably less computational time if the Monte Carlo calculations were run to higher uncertainty in k{sub eff} with a small penalty to model performance.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
H2Integrate [SWR-23-31]
H2Integrate(H2I) is an open-source Python package for hybrid systems engineering design and technoeconomic analysis. It models and optimizes hybrid energy plants that produce electricity, hydrogen, ammonia, steel, and other products. H2Integrate is designed to be flexible and extensible, allowing users to create their own components and models for various energy systems. The tool currently includes distributed energy generation (wind, solar, wave, tidal), battery storage, hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and steel technologies. Other elements such as desalination systems, pipelines, compressors, and storage systems can also be included as developed by users. Some modeling capabilities in H2Integrate are provided by integrating existing tools, such as HOPP, PySAM, ORBIT, and ProFAST. The H2Integrate tool is built on top of NASA's OpenMDAO framework, which provides a powerful and flexible environment for modeling and optimization.
King, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment
Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.
Bayesian hybrid modeling↗
FEM Analysis of Hybrid LTS/HTS Cos-Theta Dipole Magnet With Heterogeneous Cable Model
The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory (NHMFL) have published results on Bi-2212 superconductive magnets realized and tested in the canted cosine-theta and solenoid designs, respectively. Fermilab is now preparing for the assembly of the first Bi-2212 stress-managed cosine-theta insert magnet. The insert will be part of the first hybrid cosine-theta magnet made of Nb$_3$Sn outer layers within the US-MDP effort to reach a 20 T bore field. This paper presents the analytical analysis of the cosine-theta Nb$_3$Sn/Bi-2212 hybrid magnet. We report the parameters, logic, and implementation method of the 2D electromagnetic and mechanical FEM analysis of the LTS/HTS hybrid magnet. Results from a detailed heterogeneous model are compared to the homogeneous model implemented in the past. A Python code has been developed to simulate the current degradation due to stresses in the detail-modeled conductor areas. The current degradation has been introduced in the simulation dynamics for the HTS conductor as an iteration process, updating the input load of Lorentz forces of the energization at each step. The magnetic and mechanical analysis results of the 2D cosine-theta LTS/HTS dipole magnet have been described and analyzed.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
The myth of URANS
Since the 1990s, RANS practitioners have observed spontaneous unsteadiness in RANS simulations. Some have suggested deliberately using this as a method of resolving large turbulent structures. However, to date, no one has produced a theoretical justification for this unsteady RANS (URANS) approach. Here, we extend the dynamical system fixed point analysis to create a theoretical model for URANS dynamics. The results are compared to URANS simulations for homogeneous isotropic decaying turbulence. The model shows that URANS can predict incorrect decay rates and that the solution tends towards steady RANS over time. Similar analysis for forced turbulence shows a fixed modelled energy of about 30% of total energy, regardless of the model parameters. The same analysis can be used to show how hybrid type models can begin to address these issues.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
A hybrid surrogate modeling framework for the Digital Twin of a Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR)
While nuclear energy is a non-greenhouse-gas emitting energy source, expensive operational costs due to the high-level of safety requirements decreases their competitiveness in the sustainable energy market. Advanced reactor concepts paired with Digital Twins aim to increase the commercialization gains of nuclear energy by reducing operational costs, increasing reactor reliability and enhancing power generation. To support Digital Twin tasks such as real-time autonomous control, proactive maintenance monitoring or optimizing power demand operations, a fast and accurate virtual representation of the Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is required. The computational cost of high-fidelity, physics-based models are unsuitable for real-time analysis or scalability. Here, in this work, a hybrid surrogate modeling framework is developed fora Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactor (FHR) that leverages physics-inspired models for key reactor components and uses data-driven methods for rapid system state space prediction. The Xenon reactivity feedback model is integrated to inform the surrogate model about the reactor core and the homologous pump theory model is the basis for representing pump degradation. Using a detailed, two dimensional thermal hydraulics model to generate data on the FHR, we train a network of Vectorized Autoregressive Moving-Average with eXogenous input (VARMAX) models to predict the remaining state values. The result is a surrogate model that provides a detailed reactor state representation of 41 system states and a pump degradation analysis. The framework is applied to Load Follows profiles, yielding high accuracy and a speedup that is more than 4000x faster compared to the higher- fidelity thermal hydraulics model, enabling real-time operational intelligence and applications in long horizon predictions. While the surrogate model framework is demonstrated for the particular case of FHR, the hybrid physical/data-driven modeling approach including the network of surrogates and the underlying modularity has the potential to be applied to other physical asset systems.
Digital Twins↗
Policy support and technology development trajectory for renewable natural gas in the U.S.
Renewable natural gas (RNG) is a clean alternative to fossil natural gas, which can be used as transportation fuel, among other applications. This study projects the development trajectory of RNG and evaluates its impacts on the future U.S. transportation market using a hybrid computable general equilibrium model. This analysis considers various factors and uncertainties affecting RNG production, such as technology development, market conditions, competition with other advanced biofuels, and national and state policies. In 2050, RNG production will grow to 2.7 billion gallons (10 billion liters), mostly from swine manure, under current policy provisions. This will lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 58.56 million metric tonne of CO 2e in 2050. Analysis of different technology cases finds RNG from animal manure to be predominant, while RNG from corn stover and cellulosic ethanol are less competitive. Furthermore, a high mandatory target of 1 billion gallons will drive RNG production higher by 8–18 %, while an extended 2 nd -generation biofuel production tax credit will mostly increase cellulosic ethanol production. The model also finds RNG production being affected by uncertainties in market conditions, such as GDP growth, fossil fuel prices, and oil and gas supply.
Biomethane↗
Magnetic excitations of the hybrid multiferroic (ND 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 ·D 2 O
We report a comprehensive inelastic neutron scattering study of the hybrid molecule-based multiferroic compound ( ND 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 · D 2 O in the zero-field incommensurate cycloidal phase and the high-field quasicollinear phase. The spontaneous electric polarization changes its direction concurrently with the field-induced magnetic transition, from mostly aligned with the crystallographic a axis to the c axis. To account for such a change in polarization direction, the underlying multiferroic mechanism was proposed to switch from the spin-current model induced via the inverse Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction to the p - d hybridization model. We perform a detailed analysis of the inelastic neutron data of ( ND 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 · D 2 O using linear spin-wave theory to quantify magnetic interaction strengths and investigate the possible impact of different multiferroic mechanisms on the magnetic couplings. Overall our result reveals that the spin dynamics of both multiferroic phases can be well described by a Heisenberg Hamiltonian with easy-plane anisotropy. We do not find notable differences between the optimal model parameters of the two phases. The hierarchy of exchange couplings and the balance among frustrated interactions remain the same between two phases, suggesting that magnetic interactions in ( ND 4 ) 2 FeCl 5 · D 2 O are much more robust than the electric polarization in response to delicate reorganizations of the electronic degrees of freedom in an applied magnetic field.
75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗