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Analysis of hydrofracturing on the 4100 level at the Sanford Underground Research Facility.
Abstract not provided.
Analysis of hydrofracturing on the 4100 level at the Sanford Underground Research Facility.
Abstract not provided.
How Much, How Fast?: A Science Review and Outlook for Research on the Instability of Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier in the 21st Century
Constraining how much and how fast the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will change in the coming decades has recently been identified as the highest priority in Antarctic research (National Academies, 2015). Here we review recent research on WAIS and outline further scientific objectives for the area now identified as the most likely to undergo near-term significant change: Thwaites Glacier and the adjacent Amundsen Sea. Multiple lines of evidence point to an ongoing rapid loss of ice in this region in response to changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Models of the ice sheets dynamic behavior indicate a potential for greatly accelerated ice loss as ocean-driven melting at the Thwaites Glacier grounding zone and nearby areas leads to thinning, faster flow, and retreat. A complete retreat of the Thwaites Glacier basin would raise global sea level by more than three meters by entraining ice from adjacent catchments. This scenario could occur over the next few centuries, and faster ice loss could occur through processes omitted from most ice flow models such as hydrofracture and ice cliff failure, which have been observed in recent rapid ice retreats elsewhere. Increased basal melt at the grounding zone and increased potential for hydrofracture due to enhanced surface melt could initiate a more rapid collapse of Thwaites Glacier within the next few decades.
Understanding Subsurface Fracture Evolution Dynamics Using Time‐Lapse Full Waveform Inversion of Continuous Active‐Source Seismic Monitoring Data
Abstract Predicting the behavior, geometry, and flow properties of subsurface fractures remains a challenging problem. Seismic models that can characterize fractures usually suffer from low spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we develop a correlative double‐difference time‐lapse full waveform inversion of continuous active source seismic monitoring data for determining high‐spatiotemporal‐resolution time‐lapse V p models of in‐situ fracture evolution at a shallow contamination site in Wyoming, USA. Assisted by rock physics modeling, we find that (a) rapidly increasing pore pressure initializes and grows the fracture, increasing the porosity slightly (from ∼13.7% to ∼14.6%) in the tight clay formation, thus decreasing V p (∼50 m/s); (b) the fluid injection continues decreasing V p , likely through the introduction of gas bubbles in the injectate; and (c) final V p reductions reach over ∼150 m/s due to a posited ∼4.5% gas saturation. Our results demonstrate that high‐resolution V p changes are indicative of mechanical and fluid changes within the fracture zone during hydrofracturing.
EGS Collab Experiment 1: SIMFIP Notch-164 GRL Paper
Characterizing the stimulation mode of a fracture is critical to assess the hydraulic efficiency and the seismic risk related to deep fluid manipulations. We have monitored the three-dimensional displacements of a fluid-driven fracture during water injections in a borehole at ~1.5 km depth in the crystalline rock of the Sanford Underground Research Facility (USA). The fracture initiates at 61% of the minimum horizontal stress by micro-shearing of the borehole on a foliation plane. As the fluid pressure increases further, borehole axial and radial displacements increase with injection time highlighting the opening and sliding of a new hydrofracture growing ~10 m away from the borehole, in accordance with the ambient normal stress regime and in alignment with the microseismicity. Our study reveals how fluid-driven fracture stimulation can be facilitated by a mixed-mode process controlled by the complex hydromechanical evolution of the growing fracture. The data presented in this submission refer to the SIMFIP measurements and analyses of the stimulation tests conducted on the 164 ft (50 m) notch of the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF), during the EGS-Collab test 1. In addition to the datafiles, there is the draft of a manuscript submitted to Geophysical Research Letters (GRL).
Potential Link Between 2020 Mentone, West Texas M5 Earthquake and Nearby Wastewater Injection: Implications for Aquifer Mechanical Properties
Abstract The M5 Mentone earthquake that occurred on March 26, 2020, was the largest event recorded over the last 2 decades in West Texas within the Delaware Basin, a U.S. major petroleum‐producing area. Also, numerous hydrofracturing and wastewater disposal wells are spread across this region. Within a 30 km distance to mainshock, eight class‐II injection wells for industrial wastewater disposal target the deep porous Ellenburger aquifer at an average rate of 1.36 × 10 6 barrel (BBL) per month during 2012–2020. Poroelastic models of fluid diffusion show these nearby injectors collectively imparted up to 80.5 kPa of Coulomb stress at the mainshock location, capable of triggering this M5 event. Assuming the Mentone event occurs when pore‐pressure increase is maximum, the time delay between peak injection and the M5 occurrence corresponds with an optimal permeability of 6.76 × 10 ‐14 m 2 for the Ellenburger aquifer layer, in agreement with independent estimates.
Seismicity and Stress Associated With a Fluid-Driven Fracture: Estimating the Evolving Geometry
A coupled approach, combining the theory of rate- and state-dependent friction and methods from poroelasticity, forms the basis for a quantitative relationship between displacements and fluid leak-off from a growing fracture and changes in the rate of seismic events in the region surrounding the fracture. Poroelastic Green's functions link fracture aperture changes and fluid flow from the fracture to changes in the stress field and pore pressure in the adjacent formation. The theory of rate- and state-dependent friction provides a connection between Coulomb stress changes and variations in the rate of seismic events. Numerical modeling indicates that the Coulomb stress changes can vary significantly between formations with differing properties. The relationship between the seismicity rate changes and the changes in the formation stresses and fluid pressure is nonlinear, but a transformation produces a quantity that is linearly related to the aperture changes and fluid leak-off from the fracture. The methodology provides a means for mapping changes in seismicity into fracture aperture changes and to image an evolving fracture. An application to observed microseismicity associated with a hydrofracture reveals asymmetric fracture propagation within two main zones, with extended propagation in the upper zone. Furthermore, the time-varying volume of the fracture agrees with the injected volume, given by the integration of rate changes at the injection well, providing validation of the estimated aperture changes.
Wintertime Brine Discharge at the Surface of a Cold Polar Glacier and the Unexpected Absence of Associated Seismicity
A subglacial groundwater system beneath Taylor Glacier, Antarctica, discharges hypersaline, iron-rich brine episodically at the glacier surface to create Blood Falls. However, the triggering mechanism for these brine release events is not yet understood. Identifying which fracture processes are observed seismically can help us better characterize the hydrological system at Taylor Glacier, and more generally, provide us with a broader understanding of englacial hydrologic activity in cold glaciers. We document wintertime brine discharge using time-lapse photography. Subfreezing air temperatures during the brine discharge indicate that surface melt-induced hydrofracture is an unlikely trigger for brine release. Further, we analyze local seismic data to test a hypothesis that fracturing generates elevated surface wave energy preceding and/or coinciding with brine release events. Our results show no discernible elevated Rayleigh wave activity prior to or during Blood Falls brine release. Instead, we find a pattern of seismic events dominated by a seasonal signal, with more Rayleigh events occurring in the summer than the winter from the Blood Falls source area. We calculate that the volumetric opening of cracks that would generate Rayleigh waves at our detection limits are of similar size to myriad cracks in glacier ice, lake ice, and frozen sediment in the terminus area. We therefore propose that any fracturing coincident with brine release activity likely consists of a series of smaller opening events that are masked by other seismicity in the local environment.
Wind‐Associated Melt Trends and Contrasts Between the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Föhn and katabatic winds (downslope winds) can increase ice sheet surface melt, run-off, and ice-shelf vulnerability to hydrofracture and are poorly constrained on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS). We use regional climate model simulations of the GIS and AIS to quantify and intercompare trends in downslope winds and associated melt since 1960. Results reveal surface melt associated with downslope wind is significant on both the GIS and AIS representing 27.5 ± 4.5% and 19.7 ± 3.8% of total surface melt respectively. Wind-associated melt has decreased 31.8 ± 5.3% on the AIS while total melt decreased 15.4 ± 2.4% due to decreased föhn-induced melt on the Antarctic Peninsula and increasing stratospheric ozone. Wind-associated melt has increased 10.3 ± 2.5% on the GIS, combining with a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation and warmer surface to increase total melt 34 ± 5.8%.
Estimating perturbed stress from 3-D borehole displacements induced by fluid injection in fractured or faulted shales
SUMMARY Hydrofracturing stress measurements in fractured and anisotropic shales are notoriously difficult, because opening of existing geological features tends to prevent the creation of a pure hydraulic fracture perpendicular to the least compressive principal stress. Here we show how adding 3-D borehole-displacement measurements while conducting the hydraulic injection test helps to better constrain the principal stress orientations and magnitudes. We developed a 3-D fully coupled hydromechanical numerical model to analyse the displacement, fluid pressure and injection flow-rate data measured during an injection pressure-step-rate test conducted to activate a faulted borehole interval in the Mont Terri Opalinus Clay (Switzerland). We find that injected fluids can only penetrate the fault when it is at or above the Coulomb failure pressure. Borehole displacement orientations are sensitive to a ∼15° variation in the stress–tensor orientation and a 1 MPa stress magnitude variation. Although some dispersion occurs while rupture is propagating along the fault plane ∼4 m away from the borehole, the maximum density of displacement orientations consistently informs about the stress orientation. Thus, an extended injection step-rate approach coupled with an accurate in situ measurement of the borehole wall displacements can be used to better constrain the local stress field perturbations in fractured shales and in heterogeneous rock in general.
TReactMech v4.217
TReactMech couples geomechanical processes (poroelasticity, failure, and inelastic strain) with multiphase nonisothermal flow (derived from TOUGH2) and reactive geochemical transport. At its core is the reactive-transport code TOUGHREACT v4.13. TReactMech is an efficient hybrid parallel simulator, solving the geomechanics using finite elements and MPI/PetSc, the multiphase flow using integrated finite difference and MPI/PETSc, and the reactive chemistry using OpenMP. The advantages of TReactMech are in its multiphase flow capabilities (e.g., supercritical CO2, supercritical water, air) and parallel geomechanics including full 3-D stress tensor, shear and tensile failure, coupled to porosity and permeability changes. It is backwardly compatible with TOUGH2 and TOUGHREACT v4.13, allowing for easier transitions between the codes. TReactMech can be used to simulate many natural and engineered subsurface systems, including geothermal reservoirs, borehole heat exchangers, geologic carbon sequestration, geologic storage of nuclear waste, groundwater resources, weathering, sediment diagenesis, seafloor hydrothermal circulation, hydrofracturing in unconventional reservoirs, and injection/production-induced surface deformation.
SIMS Analysis of d18O and d13C of Carbonate Cements in Shale & Mudstone. Final report
This project has had two primary goals: 1) improving new technology for in situ microanalysis of stable isotope ratios by SIMS (secondary ion mass spectrometry) and 2) evaluating the importance of in situ analysis for studies of carbonate cements within shales of the Bakken Petroleum System. The systematic relations of stable isotope ratios provide an important tool to help resolve critical questions in geology. Stable isotope analysis of carbonate cements in shale constrain many topics of interest to DOE including: CO2 sequestration, climate change, and the genesis and quality of rock reservoirs for petroleum, natural gas, and water. However, this evidence is often preserved as fine-scale zonation, which is homogenized by conventional bulk analysis of powders. Recently, analysis of ultra-small spots in polished samples at the University of Wisconsin WiscSIMS Lab. has documented stable isotope zoning in carbonates and other diagenetic cements at smaller scales than previously possible. We have made detailed studies of oxygen and carbon isotope ratios in diagenetic cements from shales of the Bakken Formation from the Williston basin and elsewhere. The Bakken contains both reservoir and source rocks for petroleum. Hydrofracturing has greatly enhanced production of oil in these tight reservoirs. The sediments contain zoned carbonate cements with growth textures that record multiple events. The growth of carbonate (dolomite) cements has been proposed to control reservoir quality, but previous stable isotope studies of homogenized powders could not resolve individual generations of cement and this proposal remains untested. Our better characterization of the multiple growth zones in these carbonates will aid in understanding the genesis of these tight reservoirs and the production of unconventional oil and gas. This study has also developed SIMS standards for analysis of all compositions of Ca-Mg-Fe carbonate and selected Mn-carbonates and hydromagnesite. We have refined techniques for improved accuracy of SIMS stable isotope analysis, and for sub-1-micron spot sizes. We have established protocols for mapping and correlating sample analyses at micron-scale using QGIS software.
Fundamental Understanding of Methane-Carbon Dioxide-Water (CH 4 -CO 2 - H 2 O) Interactions in Shale Nanopores under Reservoir Conditions (Quarterly Report)
Shale is characterized by the predominant presence of nanometer-scale (1-100 nm) pores. The behavior of fluids in those pores directly controls shale gas storage and release in shale matrix and ultimately the wellbore production in unconventional reservoirs. Recently, it has been recognized that a fluid confined in nanopores can behave dramatically differently from the corresponding bulk phase due to nanopore confinement. CO 2 and H 2 O, either preexisting or introduced, are two major components that coexist with shale gas (predominately CH 4 ) during hydrofracturing and gas extraction. Note that liquid or supercritical CO 2 has been suggested as an alternative fluid for subsurface fracturing such that CO 2 enhanced gas recovery can also serve as a CO 2 sequestration process. Limited data indicate that CO 2 may preferentially adsorb in nanopores (particularly those in kerogen) and therefore displace CH 4 in shale. Similarly, the presence of water moisture seems able to displace or trap CH 4 in shale matrix. Therefore, fundamental understanding of CH 4 -CO 2 -H 2 O behavior and their interactions in shale nanopores is of great importance for gas production and the related CO 2 sequestration. This project focuses on the systematic study of CH 4 -CO 2 -H 2 O interactions in shale nanopores under high-pressure and high temperature reservoir conditions. The proposed work will help develop new stimulation strategies to enable efficient resource recovery from fewer and less environmentally impactful wells.
The role of föhn winds in eastern Antarctic Peninsula rapid ice shelf collapse
Ice shelf collapse reduces buttressing and enables grounded glaciers to contribute more rapidly to sea-level rise in a warming climate. The abrupt collapses of the Larsen A (1995) and B (2002) ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula (AP) occurred, at least for Larsen B, when long-period ocean swells damaged the calving front and the ice shelf was inundated with melt lakes that led to large-scale hydrofracture cascades. During collapse, field and satellite observations indicate föhn winds were present on both ice shelves. Here we use a regional climate model and machine learning analyses to evaluate the contributory roles of föhn winds and associated melt events prior to and during the collapses for ice shelves on the AP. Föhn winds caused about 25 % ± 3 % of the total annual melt in just 9 d on Larsen A prior to and during collapse and were present during the Larsen B collapse, which helped form extensive melt lakes. At the same time, the off-coast wind direction created by föhn winds helped melt and physically push sea ice away from the ice shelf calving fronts that allowed long-period ocean swells to reach and damage the front, which has been theorized to have ultimately triggered collapse. Collapsed ice shelves experienced enhanced surface melt driven by föhn winds over a large spatial extent and near the calving front, whereas SCAR inlet and the Larsen C ice shelves are affected less by föhn-wind-induced melt and do not experience large-scale melt ponds. These results suggest SCAR inlet and the Larsen C ice shelves may be less likely to experience rapid collapse due to föhn-driven melt so long as surface temperatures and föhn occurrence remain within historical bounds.
The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat
Abstract. Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, has retreated and accelerated through the 21st century, raising concerns that it could be a significant contributor to future sea-level rise. We use a data-constrained ensemble of three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model simulations to estimate the likely range of sea-level rise from the continued retreat of Humboldt Glacier. We first solve for basal traction using observed ice thickness, bed topography, and ice surface velocity from the year 2007 in a PDE-constrained (partial differential equation) optimization. Next, we impose calving rates to match mean observed retreat rates from winter 2007–2008 to winter 2017–2018 in a transient calibration of the exponent in the power-law basal friction relationship. We find that power-law exponents in the range of 1/7–1/5 – rather than the commonly used 1/3–1 – are necessary to reproduce the observed speedup over this period. We then tune an iceberg calving parameterization based on the von Mises stress yield criterion in another transient-calibration step to approximate both observed ice velocities and terminus position in 2017–2018. Finally, we use the range of basal friction relationship exponents and calving parameter values to generate the ensemble of model simulations from 2007–2100 under three climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 (two RCP8.5 forcings, Representative Concentration Pathway) and CMIP6 (one SSP5-8.5 forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Our simulations predict 5.2–8.7 mm of sea-level rise from Humboldt Glacier, significantly higher than a previous estimate (∼ 3.5 mm) and equivalent to a substantial fraction of the 40–140 mm predicted by ISMIP6 from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet. Our larger future sea-level rise prediction results from the transient calibration of our basal friction law to match the observed speedup, which requires a semi-plastic bed rheology. In many simulations, our model predicts the growth of a sizable ice shelf in the middle of the 21st century. Thus, atmospheric warming could lead to more retreat than predicted here if increased surface melt promotes hydrofracture of the ice shelf. Our data-constrained simulations of Humboldt Glacier underscore the sensitivity of model predictions of Greenland outlet glacier response to warming to choices of basal shear stress and iceberg calving parameterizations. Further, transient calibration of these parameterizations, which has not typically been performed, is necessary to reproduce observed behavior. Current estimates of future sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet could, therefore, contain significant biases.
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice
We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.
Hydrovolcanism
Hydrovolcanism is a common phenomena produced by the interaction of magma or magmatic heat with an external source of water, such as a surface body, an aquifer, or a glacier. The effects include hydrofracture of existing rock units in the subsurface and the formation of hyaloclastites in a subaqueous environment. Hydroexplosions originate within a few kilometers of the surface. They may be relatively small, phreatic events or devastating complex blasts. Large-scale experiments determined that the optimal mixing ratio of water to basaltic melt (thermite plus silicates) for efficient conversion of thermal energy into mechanical energy is in the range of 0.1 to 0.3. Based on experimental results, eruptions can be classified as dominantly magmatic if the ratio of external water to magma is less than 0.2. Eruptions with water/melt ratios in the range of 0.2 to 1.0 are highly explosive and carry tephra in a hot vapor that contains dominantly superheated (dry) steam.