Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “hypothesis tests”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

From quantitative trait loci towards mechanisms: Linkage Integration Hypothesis Testing (LIgHT) sheds light on the mechanisms of genetically modulated stress tolerance

The goal of this work is to assess the mechanistic bases of natural genetic variations in plant responses of photosynthesis to stress. To achieve this goal, we devised the Linkage Integration Hypothesis Testing (LIgHT) approach, comparing chromosomal locations of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for multiple phenotypes to distinguish between hypothetical mechanisms. As a use case, we explored genetic variations in photosynthesis-related processes under chilling stress in recombinant inbred lines of cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata L. Walp.). We focused on photosynthesis-related parameters measurable in high throughput and indicative of proposed chilling responses, including the states of PSI and PSII, photoprotective non-photochemical quenching, PSII photodamage, and nyctinastic leaf movements (NLMs). The patterns of QTL linkages indicated that chilling stress tolerance is genetically controlled by avoiding PSII photodamage rather than PSI damage or NLMs. This model was validated in a separate experiment measuring the rates of PSII photodamage and repair. Additional linkages suggest that chilling-induced damage to PSII is controlled by the thylakoid proton motive force and redox state of PSII. This regulation appears to be modulated by thylakoid fatty acid composition, previously associated with the same genetic loci and now supported by broader mechanistic evidence. We propose that the LIgHT approach can be broadly applied to test mechanisms underlying genetic variations.

MultispeQ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Anomaly Detection in Power System State Estimation: Review and New Directions

Foundational and state-of-the-art anomaly-detection methods through power system state estimation are reviewed. Traditional components for bad data detection, such as chi-square testing, residual-based methods, and hypothesis testing, are discussed to explain the motivations for recent anomaly-detection methods given the increasing complexity of power grids, energy management systems, and cyber-threats. In particular, state estimation anomaly detection based on data-driven quickest-change detection and artificial intelligence are discussed, and directions for research are suggested with particular emphasis on considerations of the future smart grid.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Particle Filter Based Inference Testing

The primary intent of PAR-FIT (Particle Filter based Inference Testing) is to provide hard inductive evidence that a machine learning model is capable and proven for an individual test input. By examining training data used to form the underlying model functional correlation, an estimate of the reliability that a model will make the correct prediction can be made. The Sequential Probability Ratio Test is used to derive a qualitative evaluation for reliability based on hypothesis testing. The PAR-FIT framework achieves this by implementing a particle filter and the sequential probability ratio test algorithms on the machine learning model training data to determine relevancy of new individual test samples to the training dataset. The kernel function evaluates the local proximity and density of training data used to derive a prediction outcome. Particles are used to probabilistically determine which training data to evaluate for proximity. For test samples that are within a close proximity to and surrounded by multiple training data points, the evaluated reliability of the prediction is high. For test samples that are anomalies not represented by the training dataset, in low density data clusters, or are far from existing data points, the evaluated reliability is low as insufficient training evidence exists to suggest the model is capable of making the correct prediction. Sequential Probability Ratio Test is further used to determine when a hypothesis on whether a signal can be rejected or accepted for use. The ratio test collects sequence information from the particle filter to test whether the signal is anomalous or normal via hypothesis testing of the underlying distributions.

Chen, Edward [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Ida↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Walking the ‘design–build–test–learn’ cycle: flux analysis and genetic engineering reveal the pliability of plant central metabolism

Oilseeds are of great economic importance for food and animal feed and their contribution to renewable energy production. Soybean seeds (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) contain c. 40% protein, 20% oil, and 30% carbohydrate (Song et al., 2023). Due to the massive scale of soybean production worldwide, even small improvements in seed protein and oil content make economic sense (Song et al., 2023). Successful manipulation of seed composition largely depends on a thorough understanding of the processes and pathways involved in the biosynthesis of fatty acids and amino acids, which are the building blocks of lipids and proteins. Rational engineering of the synthesis of storage reserves, that is, the rerouting of metabolic flux in central metabolism, is difficult to accomplish due to the complexity of the central metabolic network, the intricate regulation of its enzymes at multiple levels, and the often-unpredictable effects of genetic manipulation (Sweetlove et al., 2017). Therefore, the advancement of our understanding of central metabolism and its control of carbon partitioning requires following an iterative ‘design–build–test–learn’ (DBTL) cycle (Lin & Eudes, 2020) where metabolic flux analysis and hypothesis testing by transgenic approaches are important components. Previous metabolic studies on soybeans using isotopic tracers and metabolic flux analysis have provided insight into how lipid and protein biosynthesis occurs simultaneously during seed development (Allen et al., 2009; Allen & Young, 2013; Kambhampati et al., 2021). In an article published in this issue of New Phytologist, Morley et al. (2023; 1834–1851) put the insights they have gained into the delivery of metabolic precursors and energy cofactors to oil synthesis to the test and arrive at a successful metabolic engineering design. They show that an increase in seed oil content in soybeans can be achieved by overexpression of malic enzyme (ME) during seed development. Malic enzyme refers to a class of decarboxylating malate dehydrogenase enzymes that oxidize malate with NAD + or NADP + as redox cofactor while generating pyruvate and CO 2 . Like higher plants in general, soybean has distinct NADH- or NADPH-producing ME isoforms localized to the cytosol, plastid, or mitochondria (Gerrard Wheeler et al., 2016). As Morley et al. show, an increase in seed oil can be achieved in particular when a NADP+-dependent enzyme isoform (EC 1.1.1.40) is overexpressed in the plastid. Given the complex compartmentalization of pyruvate, malate, and redox metabolism (Fig. 1), increased oil production appears to depend on additional pyruvate and reducing equivalents being produced in the same compartment where de novo fatty acid biosynthesis occurs: the plastid.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstrating Hierarchical System Development With the Common Community Physics Package Single‐Column Model: A Case Study Over the Southern Great Plains

This study demonstrates a specific application of the hierarchical system development (HSD) approach to investigate, analyze, and attribute model issues within the Unified Forecast System (UFS), with a focus on process isolation. By evaluating a non‐precipitating, shallow cumulus case at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains site in the UFS global forecast against the observation, the investigation identifies a warmer and deeper daytime convective planetary boundary layer (PBL) and misrepresented nocturnal PBL transition. Hypothesis testing, which employs the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) single‐column model (SCM) and uses the same physics as the UFS global model, confirms that these issues are attributed to the model physics and initialization. Specifically, misrepresented PBL processes are linked to problematic surface condition and a lack of cloud formation, which may stem from deficiencies in PBL and cloud microphysics parameterizations and their interactions. The UFS initial condition contributes to an earlier, excessively collapsed daytime convective boundary layer and a lack of decoupling between the stable boundary layer and residual layer late in the afternoon. This work introduces an avenue for the community to engage with the application of HSD, along with the CCPP and CCPP SCM, to understand the interplay of model physics, disentangle the roles of model components, as well as facilitate model and forecast improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning likelihood ratios with neural network classifiers

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however, make use of data- or simulation-driven models for which computing the likelihood ratio can be very difficult or even impossible. By applying the so-called “likelihood ratio trick,” approximations of the likelihood ratio may be computed using clever parametrizations of neural network-based classifiers. A number of different neural network setups can be defined to satisfy this procedure, each with varying performance in approximating the likelihood ratio when using finite training data. We present a series of empirical studies detailing the performance of several common loss functionals and parametrizations of the classifier output in approximating the likelihood ratio of two univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributions as well as simulated high-energy particle physics datasets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Space-time generalization of mutual information

The mutual information characterizes correlations between spatially separated regions of a system. Yet, in experiments we often measure dynamical correlations, which involve probing operators that are also separated in time. Here, we introduce a space-time generalization of mutual information which, by construction, satisfies several natural properties of the mutual information and at the same time characterizes correlations across subsystems that are separated in time. In particular, this quantity, that we call the space-time mutual information, bounds all dynamical correlations. We construct this quantity based on the idea of the quantum hypothesis testing. As a by-product, our definition provides a transparent interpretation in terms of an experimentally accessible setup. We draw connections with other notions in quantum information theory, such as quantum channel discrimination. Finally, we study the behavior of the space-time mutual information in several settings and contrast its long-time behavior in many-body localizing and thermalizing systems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-dimensional isotomics, part 2: Observations of over 100 constraints on methionine's isotome

The abundances of different isotopic forms of a compound, or isotopologues, will vary based on its physical and chemical history. The number of isotopologues increases combinatorically with the size of a molecule, and even small molecules such as amino acids have thousands of potentially observable isotopic variants. However, due to the analytical challenges of separating and observing isotopologues, only a few dimensions of isotopic diversity are routinely measured. Overcoming these challenges requires both an experimental method to observe many isotopic properties and a theoretical framework for interpreting these experiments. In Part 1, we presented such a theoretical framework; here, we demonstrate an experimental method, which we apply to methionine. Our approach uses a Q Exactive HF Orbitrap to perform several “M + N experiments”, where a sample is ionized, a subset of its isotopologues with cardinal mass N daltons greater than the unsubstituted isotopologue is selected and fragmented, and the proportions of all detectable isotopic forms of those fragment ions are quantified. We perform M + 1, M + 2, M + 3, and M + 4 experiments of a methionine sample and standard where the sample has a 100 ‰ enrichment of 13C at the methyl carbon relative to the natural 13C abundance at that position in the standard, and is otherwise identical to the standard. We observe isotopic forms of 8 fragment ion species for each version of the M + N experiment. With the assistance of a forward model of expected mass spectra, we identify isotopic peaks for each fragment ion based on observed mass and abundance, screen these for data quality, and quantify abundances for 146 unique isotopic peaks at precisions of ≈ 0.3–3 ‰. We present our direct observations and use them to reconstruct the concentrations of 19 individual singly, doubly, and triply-substituted isotopologues; doing so gives fewer constraints and broader error bars than working with the direct observations, but may be more interpretable for some applications. We also examine possibilities for measuring additional peaks, which are primarily limited by the detection limit of the Orbitrap-IRMS method. We then suggest some possible uses of our direct measurements for chemical forensics and hypothesis testing. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the diversity of isotopic constraints currently observable and interpretable for organic molecules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage: An optimization study on techno-economic analysis

Here, this study performs a techno-economic analysis of hydrogen underground storage systems for grid electricity storage, evaluating their economic viability at the plant scale using dynamic optimization. It explores the feasibility of various system configurations and revenue models in the context of volatile electricity prices and the necessity for multiple revenue streams. The hypothesis tested is that large-scale hydrogen storage, despite its low round-trip efficiency, can be economically viable with the right mix of revenue streams. This study uses scenario-based analysis to assess the impacts of different system configurations, including engaging in time-shifting arbitrage, ancillary service markets and blending hydrogen with natural gas. Results indicate potential annual net cash flows of up to $\$$1.5 million from ancillary services integration and $\$$5.2 million from natural gas blending, contingent on specific system sizes. The study concludes that hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage can be profitable, and emphasizes that proper system design and precise electricity price forecasting are crucial for optimizing system performance and economic returns. This research sets the stage for further investigations into the scalability of hydrogen storage systems and their broader implications for grid electricity storage and energy market dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Mass‐Conserving‐Perceptron for Machine‐Learning‐Based Modeling of Geoscientific Systems

Although decades of effort have been devoted to building Physical-Conceptual (PC) models for predicting the time-series evolution of geoscientific systems, recent work shows that Machine Learning (ML) based Gated Recurrent Neural Network technology can be used to develop models that are much more accurate. However, the difficulty of extracting physical understanding from ML-based models complicates their utility for enhancing scientific knowledge regarding system structure and function. Here, we propose a physically interpretable Mass-Conserving-Perceptron (MCP) as a way to bridge the gap between PC-based and ML-based modeling approaches. The MCP exploits the inherent isomorphism between the directed graph structures underlying both PC models and GRNNs to explicitly represent the mass-conserving nature of physical processes while enabling the functional nature of such processes to be directly learned (in an interpretable manner) from available data using off-the-shelf ML technology. As a proof of concept, we investigate the functional expressivity (capacity) of the MCP, explore its ability to parsimoniously represent the rainfall-runoff (RR) dynamics of the Leaf River Basin, and demonstrate its utility for scientific hypothesis testing. To conclude, we discuss extensions of the concept to enable ML-based physical-conceptual representation of the coupled nature of mass-energy-information flows through geoscientific systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-database cross-verification and validation of tokamak transport models using baselines for comparison

State-of-the-art 1D transport solvers ASTRA and TRANSP are verified, then validated across a large database of semi-randomly selected, time-dependent DIII-D discharges. Various empirical models are provided as baselines to contextualize the validation figures of merit using statistical hypothesis tests. For predicting plasma temperature profiles, no statistically significant advantage is found for the ASTRA and TRANSP simulators over a baseline empirical (two-parameter) model. For predicting stored energy, a significant advantage is found for the simulators over a baseline empirical model based on confinement time scaling. Uncertainty in the results due to diagnostic and profile fitting uncertainties is approximated and determined to be insignificant due in part to the large quantity of discharges employed in the study. Advantages are discussed for validation methodologies like this one that employ (1) large databases and (2) baselines for comparison that are specific to the intended use-case of the model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Not even 6 dB: Gaussian quantum illumination in thermal background

Abstract In analyses of target detection with Gaussian state transmitters in a thermal background, the thermal occupation is taken to depend on the target reflectivity in a way which simplifies the analysis of the symmetric quantum hypothesis testing problem. However, this assumption precludes comparison of target detection performance between an arbitrary transmitter and a vacuum state transmitter, i.e. ‘detection without illumination’, which is relevant in a bright thermal background because a target can be detected by its optical shadow or some other perturbation of the background. Using a target-agnostic thermal environment leads to the result that the oft-claimed 6 dB possible reduction in the quantum Chernoff exponent for a two-mode squeezed vacuum transmitter over a coherent state transmitter in high-occupation thermal background is an unachievable limiting value, only occurring in a limit in which the target detection problem is ill-posed. Further analyzing quantum illumination in a target-agnostic thermal environment shows that a weak single-mode squeezed transmitter performs worse than ‘no illumination’, which is explained by the noise-increasing property of reflected low-intensity squeezed light.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reductive quantum phase estimation

Estimating a quantum phase is a necessary task in a wide range of fields of quantum science. To accomplish this task, two well-known methods have been developed in distinct contexts, namely, Ramsey interferometry (RI) in atomic and molecular physics and quantum phase estimation (QPE) in quantum computing. We demonstrate that these canonical examples are instances of a larger class of phase estimation protocols, which we call reductive quantum phase estimation (RQPE) circuits. Here, we present an explicit algorithm that allows one to create an RQPE circuit. This circuit distinguishes an arbitrary set of phases with a smaller number of qubits and unitary applications, thereby solving a general class of quantum hypothesis testing to which RI and QPE belong. We further demonstrate a tradeoff between measurement precision and phase distinguishability, which allows one to tune the circuit to be optimal for a specific application. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Papadopoulos, Nicholas J. C. (ORCID:00000002635700↗
DOE OSTI2023

High Impedance Fault Detection Through Quasi-Static State Estimation: A Parameter Error Modeling Approach

This paper presents a model for detecting high impedance faults using parameter error modeling and a two step per-phase weighted-least squares state estimation process. The proposed scheme leverages the use of Phasor Measurement Units and synthetic measurements to identify per-phase power flow and injection measurements which indicate a parameter error through ?2 Hypothesis Testing applied to the composed measurement error. Although current and voltage waveforms are commonly analyzed for high-impedance fault detection, wide area power flow and injection measurements, which are already inherent to the state estimation process, also show promise for real-world high-impedance fault detection applications. The error distributions after detection share the measurement function error spread observed in proven parameter error diagnostics and can be applied to high-impedance fault identification. Further, this error spread across measurement functions related to the fault will be clearly discerned from measurement error. Case studies are performed on the IEEE 33-Bus Distribution System along with the proposed model in Simulink.

Cooper, Austin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trust Model System for the Energy Grid of Things Network Communications

Network communication is crucial in the Energy Grid of Things (EGoT). Without a network connection, the energy grid becomes just a power grid where the energy resources are available to the customer uni-directionally. A mechanism to analyze and optimize the energy usage of the grid can only happen through a medium, a communications network, that enables information exchange between the grid participants and the service provider. Security implementers of EGoT network communication take extraordinary measures to ensure the safety of the energy grid, a critical infrastructure, as well as the safety and privacy of the grid participants. With the dynamic nature of network communication of the EGoT, the information provided by the customer or the service provider can be falsified by a malicious attacker. Therefore, a trust model is necessary to monitor any abnormal activities. This paper describes a distributed trust model system that meets the need of the EGoT. This paper describes methods for evaluating and improving the distributed trust model using standard hypothesis testing metrics such as true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative, equal error rate, and F1 score. Example calculations are shown based on generated sample data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗