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At least 19 records

On the Sensitivity of Coastal Hypoxia to Its External Physical Forcings

Abstract The development of low‐oxygen zones threatening marine life (hypoxia) occurs annually in multiple coastal regions of the world. The largest estuary of the continental United States, the Chesapeake Bay, typically has ≈10 km 3 of water with dioxygen concentrations <3 mg L −1 in July. As numerical methods for refining model resolutions in targeted areas are becoming common, there is interest in assessing the feasibility of simulating coastal hazards such as hypoxia in Earth System Models (ESMs). These coupled models are typically not constrained by observations and thus likely to feature systematic biases in their land, atmosphere, or ocean components. This study relies on four numerical experiments to evaluate the sensitivity of Chesapeake Bay hypoxia to changes or biases in its external physical forcings. Hypoxia exhibits only a minor decrease (−1.6%) after reducing the Bay's terrestrial freshwater discharge by 9.5% (but keeping terrestrial nutrient loadings the same). Changes in freshwater discharges have their largest impact on hypoxia during one extreme event (−37% during 2011 tropical storm Lee). Similarly, changing oceanic conditions on the shelf or their temporal frequency impact hypoxia by only 5%–6%, indicating that the latter is predominantly dictated by local conditions. Although these results are promising from the perspective of ESMs, additional components of ESMs will need to be evaluated before general conclusions can be reached. We notably speculate that the Bay's hypoxia would exhibit higher sensitivity to other forcings not examined here, notably air temperatures and nutrient loadings.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Hypoxia and Phytoplankton Production in Chesapeake Bay: Model Prediction and Assessment

In this study, the influence of sea-level rise (SLR) on seasonal hypoxia and phytoplankton production in Chesapeake Bay is investigated using a 3D unstructured grid model. Three SLR scenarios (0.17, 0.5, and 1.0 m) were conducted from 1991 to 1995. Results show that the summer hypoxic volume (HV) increases about 2%, 8%, and 16%, respectively, for these three scenarios, compared with Base Scenario. The contributions of physical and biological processes on the increase in the HV were analyzed. With the projected SLR, enhanced gravitational circulation transports more oxygen-rich water in the bottom layer from the mouth. However, the pycnocline moves upwards along with increasing water depth, which largely prolongs the time for dissolved oxygen (DO) to be transported to the bottom. The altered physical processes contribute greatly to a larger HV bay-wide. Besides, SLR increases the whole Bay phytoplankton production, with a larger increase in shallow areas (e.g., 53% in areas with depth <1 m under SLR of 0.5 m). Enhanced light availability is suggested to be the major driver of blooming phytoplankton under SLR in shallow areas. While increased DO production over the euphotic zone is mostly released to the atmosphere and transported downstream, the increase in settled organic matter greatly promotes DO consumption in the water column. The increased respiration is another major cause of the HV increase besides the physical contributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of climate change on estuarine stratification and implications for hypoxia within a shallow subtropical system

Vertical density stratification often plays an important role in the formation and expansion of coastal hypoxic zones through its effect on near-bed circulation and vertical oxygen flux. However, the impact of future climate change on estuarine circulation is widely unknown. Here, we developed and calibrated a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Pensacola Bay, a shallow subtropical estuary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Model simulations based on years 2013–2017 were applied to examine changes in salinity, temperature, and density under future climate scenarios, including increased radiative forcing (IR) and temperature (T), increased freshwater discharge (D), sea level rise (SLR), and wind intensification (W). Simulations showed that the impacts of climate change on modeled state variables varied over time with external forcing conditions. The model demonstrated the potential for sea level rise and increased freshwater discharge to episodically increase vertical density gradients in the Bay. However, increased wind forcing destabilized vertical gradients, at times reducing the spatial extent and duration of stable stratification. For time periods with low freshwater discharge, moderate increases in wind speed (10%) can destabilize density gradients strengthened by increased discharge (10%) and sea level rise (0.48 m). In contrast, destruction of strong density gradients that form near the mid-Bay channel following flood events requires stronger wind forcing. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of considering natural variability in freshwater and wind forcing, as well as local phenomena that are generally unresolved by global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sex comparisons in physiological and cognitive performance during hypoxic challenge

Within the tactical aviation community, human performance research lags in considering potential psychophysiological differences between male and female aviators due to little inclusion of females during the design and development of aircraft systems. A poor understanding of how male and female aviators differ with respect to human performance results in unknown potential sex differences on aeromedically relevant environmental stressors, perchance leading to suboptimal performance, safety, and health guidelines. For example, previous hypoxia studies have excluded female participants or lacked a sizeable sample to examine sex comparisons. As such, progress toward sensor development and improving hypoxia familiarization training are stunted due to limited knowledge of how individual differences, including sex, may or may not underlie hypoxia symptoms and performance impairment. Investigating sex differences bridges the gap between aerospace medicine and operational health, and addressing hypoxia is one of many facets yet to be studied. In the current study, we retrospectively examined N = 6 hypoxia studies with male-female participant samples (total, N = 189; male, n = 118; female, n = 71). We explored sex as a predictor of physiological response, sensory deficits, the severity of cognitive performance declines, and symptom manifestation via linear and binary logistic regression models. We found that the female sex predicted lower peripheral oxygen saturation and the likelihood of headache reporting in response to hypoxic challenge, yet explained little variance when combined with age and body mass index. The sensory and cognitive performance models did not converge, suggesting high intra-individual variability. Together, sex, age, and body mass index were not the most robust predictors in responses to hypoxic challenge; we cannot infer this for sensory deficits and cognitive performance within an experimentally induced hypoxic environment. The findings have implications for improving hypoxia familiarization training, monitoring sensor development, and emergency response and recovery protocols in case of a hypoxia occurrence suitable for all aircrew. We recommend continuing to elucidate the impact of sex and intrapersonal differences in hypoxia and other aeromedically relevant stressors in tactical aviation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Estuarine nutrient pollution impact reduction assessment through euphotic zone avoidance/bypass considerations

The feasibility of reducing nutrient pollution impact by redirecting the effluent to depths below the euphotic zone was investigated for the deep estuarine Puget Sound region of the Salish Sea in the Pacific Northwest of America. The hypothesis tested was that the thickness of the outflow layer in deep estuaries may be greater than the euphotic zone depth, allowing a fraction of nutrients to be exported out passively through the layers immediately below. The euphotic zone depth in Puget Sound varies from 8 to 25 m while the depth of the outflow layer can reach up to ≈ 60 m. Outfall relocation strategies were tested on 99% of the anthropogenic nutrient loads currently delivered to Puget Sound. The impact was quantified using the previously established biophysical Salish Sea Model, using gross primary production and exposure to low dissolved oxygen (DO) levels as the metric (< 2 mg/L for hypoxia and < 5 mg/L for impairment). Eliminating nutrient pollution (above natural) from rivers and wastewater reduced hypoxia exposure by 8.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Relocating the outfalls to deeper waters resulted in improvements, but only in the sill-less sub-basins such as Whidbey, where hypoxia and DO impairment exposure decreased (7.9% and 6.8%, respectively). The presence of multiple sills and circulation cells in Puget Sound resulted in increased exposure and rendered nutrient bypass goals unfeasible as originally envisioned. However, an alternate nutrient export pathway was identified through bottom exchange flow out of Puget Sound via Whidbey Basin and Deception Pass. An unexpected reduction in the exchange outflow magnitude (≈ 4%) due additional (22%) freshwater discharged to the estuary bottom was also noted. The potential loss in circulation strength due to rerouting of natural surface freshwater through submerged deep-water outfalls is identified as a new unforeseen anthropogenic impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biogeochemical Equilibrium Responses to Maximal Productivity in High Nutrient Low Chlorophyll Regions

Whether ocean iron fertilization in high nutrient low chlorophyll (HNLC) regions is a practical geoengineering strategy to combat climate warming has been debated because the fate of absorbed carbon by the ocean remains unclear. Here, we use an optimized oceanic biogeochemical inverse model to explore the equilibrium responses to increased productivity in major HNLC regions. We find that an overall downward shift of nutrients and carbon from the surface and intermediate to the deep waters with maximal productivity in the HNLC Southern Ocean (SO), North Pacific (NP) and eastern equatorial Pacific (EP). The efficiency of soft tissue pump is increased by 37.8%, 2.7% and 5.4% in the SO, EP and NP simulation while atmospheric CO 2 concentration is drawn down by 45.1, 3.4 and 6.7 ppm, respectively. Meanwhile, global mean oxygen is decreased by 21.1%, 1.3% and 2.4% in the SO, EP and NP simulation, accompanied by an expansion of oxygen minimum zones by 400%, 26% and 63%, respectively. Our study indicates that iron fertilization has the potential to be an effective geoengineering approach to mitigate climate warming but also has a strong impact on the development of ocean hypoxia.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Subtoxic dose of lithium cobalt oxide nanosheets impacts critical molecular pathways in trout gill epithelial cells

Increasing use of nanoscale lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) particles in nanotechnologies, including catalysis and energy storage, raises concerns over their release into the environment and subsequent biological impact. Here we study the impact of LCO nanosheets on trout gill epithelial cells – model cells for environmental exposures – by global transcriptomics using RNA-Seq. We identify molecular processes impacted by subtoxic and toxic nanoparticle (NP) doses as well as dissolved Li+ and Co2+ ions. We found that the ions, at concentrations released from the toxic NP dose, did not impact cell viability and downregulated the expression of few genes following 24 h exposure, which recovered to normal levels at 48 h. In contrast, the toxic NP dose upregulated the expression of over 1000 genes at each time point, indicating the intact NPs are responsible for perturbing gene expression and toxicity. Importantly, the subtoxic NP dose, despite having no impact on cell viability, upregulated the expression of over 500 genes at 24 h, and 150 genes at 48 h. Clustering analysis showed distinct gene expression profiles induced by the toxic and subtoxic NP doses, and functional enrichment identified pathways with distinct patterns of regulations. The impacted pathways fell into four main functional categories: metabolic and energy related processes, oxygen and hypoxia related processes, membrane binding and internalization processes, and developmental processes. Together, our observations indicate that LCO NP toxicity originates from the intact NP, not the dissolved ions, and even subtoxic NP dose impacts multiple pathways critical to the normal function of the cell.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Biophysical model of eelgrass and water quality in Coos Bay, OR shows greater mitigation potential for ocean acidification than hypoxia

Seagrass beds provide important ecosystem services and are valued, in part, for their potential to mediate stressors such as ocean acidification and hypoxia (OAH) for sensitive species. However, the susceptibility of seagrasses to anthropogenic impacts and recent declines motivate the need to better understand the drivers of seagrass and the water quality consequences that occur with variation in seagrass abundance. To meet this need, we leveraged existing monitoring data (water quality and seagrass), hydrodynamic circulation model, and biogeochemical model framework with seagrass submodel, to produce a biophysical model of Coos Bay estuary, Oregon, U.S. The model includes biogeochemical processes involving water quality, plankton, seagrass, and sediment-water interactions. Ecosystem models like this are useful for evaluating complex estuarine systems because they allow us to extend our understanding of system dynamics beyond existing observations and perform experiments to identify the processes driving observed patterns. We used the biophysical model of Coos Bay to evaluate the dynamics of water quality and native eelgrass (Zostera marina) under three eelgrass abundance scenarios (zero eelgrass, current extent, and maximum observed extent) to elucidate the relationship between eelgrass and OAH. Including eelgrass in the Coos Bay model produced results that more closely resembled water quality observations - dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH were more dynamic in simulations with eelgrass, often having both higher highs and lower lows. While there were some areas of the estuary where DO improved with the addition of eelgrass to the model there was overall a small net increase in harmful DO conditions (based on a salmon physiological threshold). In contrast, ocean acidification conditions, pH and calcium carbonate saturation state for aragonite (Ω), were improved (based on oyster requirements) with the addition of eelgrass - although the magnitude of improvement differed seasonally and spatially. Our new model represents a useful tool - one which accounts for and controls the relevant physical and biogeochemical processes - to evaluate conditions that confer resilience or enhance vulnerability to OAH in an important Pacific Northwest coastal estuary and results can inform the OAH-related dynamics occurring in other eastern boundary current estuaries.

FVCOM-ICM↗

Analysis of incentive policies for phosphorus recovery at livestock facilities in the Great Lakes area

Livestock operations have been highly intensified over the last decades, resulting in the advent of large concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs). Intensification decreases production costs but also leads to substantial environmental impacts. Specifically, nutrient runoff from livestock waste results in eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia. The implementation of nutrient recovery systems in CAFOs can abate nutrient releases and negative ecosystem responses, although they might negatively affect the economic performance of CAFOs. We design and analyze potential incentive policies for the deployment of phosphorus recovery technologies at CAFOs considering the geospatial vulnerability to nutrient pollution. The case study demonstration consists of 2217 CAFOs in the U.S. Great Lakes area. The results reveal that phosphorus recovery is more economically viable in the largest CAFOs due to economies of scale, although they also represent the largest eutrophication threats. For small and medium-scale CAFOs, phosphorus credits progressively improve the profitability of nutrient management systems. The integration of biogas production does not improve the economic performance of phosphorus recovery systems at most of CAFOs, as they lack enough size to be cost-effective. Furthermore, phosphorus recovery proves to be economically beneficial by comparing the net costs of nutrient management systems with the negative economic impact derived from phosphorus releases. The incentives necessary for avoiding up to 20.7.10 3 ton/year phosphorus releases and achieve economic neutrality in the Great Lakes area are estimated at $223 million/year. Additionally, the fair distribution of limited incentives is studied using a Nash allocation scheme, determining the break-even point for allocating monetary resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nitrate loading projection is sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle representation

Climate change can have substantial impacts on nitrogen runoff, which is a major cause of eutrophication, harmful algal blooms, and hypoxia in freshwaters and coastal regions. We examined responses of nitrate loading to climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) with an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool with physically based Freeze-Thaw cycle representation (SWAT-FT), as compared with the original SWAT model that employs an empirical equation. Driven by future climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1960 to 2099 under the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario, we analyzed changes in riverine nitrate loadings, as well as terrestrial surface and subsurface contributions of the UMRB in the 21st century relative to the baseline period of 1960–1999. By the end of the 21st century, the original SWAT model predicted about a 50% increase in riverine nitrate loadings which is nearly twice as much as that estimated by SWAT-FT (ca. 25%). Such a large difference in projected nitrate changes can potentially mislead mitigation strategies that aim to reduce nitrogen runoff from the UMRB. Further analysis shows that the difference between the original SWAT model and SWAT-FT led to substantial discrepancies in the spatial distribution of surface and subsurface nitrate loadings in the UMRB. In general, SWAT-FT predicted more nitrate leaching for northwestern parts of the UMRB which are more sensitive to freeze-thaw cycle, mainly because SWAT-FT simulated less frequent frozen soils. This study highlights the importance of using physically based freeze-thaw cycle representation in water quality modeling. Design of future nitrogen runoff reduction strategies should include careful assessment of effects that land management has on the freeze-thaw cycles to provide reliable projection of water quality under climate change.

Wang, Qianfeng↗

Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions

Climate-induced changes in hypoxia are among the most serious threats facing estuaries, which are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth. Future projections of estuarine hypoxia typically involve long-term multi-decadal continuous simulations or more computationally efficient time slice and delta methods that are restricted to short historical and future periods. We make a first comparison of these three methods by applying a linked terrestrial–estuarine model to the Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary in the eastern United States. Results show that the time slice approach accurately captures the behavior of the continuous approach, indicating a minimal impact of model memory. However, increases in mean annual hypoxic volume by the mid-twenty-first century simulated by the delta approach (+ 19%) are approximately twice as large as the time slice and continuous experiments (+ 9% and + 11%, respectively), indicating an important impact of changes in climate variability. Our findings suggest that system memory and projected changes in climate variability, as well as simulation length and natural variability of system hypoxia, should be considered when deciding to apply the more computationally efficient delta and time slice methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Osteocytic oxygen sensing: Distinct impacts of VHL and HIF-2alpha on bone integrity

Skeletal fracture resistance emerges from multiple components of bone structure like microarchitecture, matrix mineralization, and organization. These characteristics are engendered via mechanisms like the hypoxia-inducible factors (HIF) pathway, involving two paralogs, HIF-1α and HIF-2α. Under normoxia, HIF-α is targeted for degradation via von-Hippel Lindau (VHL); hypoxia enables HIF-α stabilization and induction of target genes. We previously showed that osteocytic Vhl deletion or expression of degradation-resistant HIF-2α cDR female mice each produced high bone mass, whereas degradation-resistant osteocytic HIF-1α produced no overt phenotype. We report within that Vhl cKO increased bone strength, while HIF-2α cDR displayed markedly reduced bone strength below Cre-negative controls. This suggests that VHL and HIF-2α drive distinct responses that promote disparate effects on bone strength. Both Vhl deletion or HIF-2α accumulation generated two discrete bone morphologies: an outer lamellar cortex and a woven, poorly mineralized endocortex that imparted dramatically different functional outcomes. Our studies reveal novel influence of osteocytic HIF-2α signaling on collagen matrix organization, mineralization, and bone strength.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Determining the impacts of venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation on cerebral oxygenation using a one-dimensional blood flow simulator

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is a mechanical system that provides rapid and short-term support for patients with cardiac failure. In many patients, pulmonary function is also impaired, resulting in poorly-oxygenated cardiac outflow competing against well-oxygenated VA-ECMO outflow, a condition known as North-South syndrome. North-South syndrome is a primary concern because of its potential to cause cerebral hypoxia, which has a critical influence on neurological complications often seen in this patient population. In order to reduce ischemic neurological complications, it is important to understand how clinical decisions regarding VA-ECMO parameters influence blood oxygenation. In our work, we studied the impacts of flow rate and cannulation site on oxygenation using a one-dimensional (1D) model to simulate blood flow. Our model was initially tested by comparing blood flow results to those observed from experimental work in VA-ECMO patients. The 1D model was combined with a two-phase flow model to simulate oxygenation. Additionally, the influence of various other clinician-tunable parameters on oxygenation in the common carotid arteries (CCAs) were tested, including, blood viscosity, cannula position within the insertion artery, heart rate, and systemic vascular resistance (SVR), as well as geometrical changes such as arterial radius and length. Our results indicated that blood oxygenation to the brain strongly depended on the cannula insertion site and the VA-ECMO flow rate with a weaker but potentially significant dependence on arterial radius. During femoral cannulation, VA-ECMO flow rates greater than ~4.9 L/min were needed to perfuse the CCAs. However, axillary and central cannulation began to perfuse the CCAs at significantly lower flow (~1 L/min). These results may help explain the incidence of cerebral hypoxia in this patient population and the common need to change cannulation strategies during treatment to address this clinical problem. While this work describes patient-averaged results, determining these relationships between VA-ECMO parameters and cerebral hypoxia is an important step towards future work to develop patient-specific models that clinicians can use to improve outcomes.

1D blood flow↗

Saturated Bioenergy Buffers: Site Suitability Classification and Estimated Areas of Candidate Sites in the U.S. Midwest Under Three Scenarios

The loss of nutrients applied to tile-drained row-crop fields is a critically important component of agriculture’s impact on surface water quality, because drain tiles provide a short circuit to ditches and creeks, resulting in rapid nutrient loss. This nutrient loss ultimately advances eutrophication and hypoxia, i.e., the creation of dead zones in bodies of water, both locally and regionally (for example, in western Lake Erie and the Gulf of Mexico). Saturated buffers help address the tile-drainage water quality problem, and incorporating bioenergy crops into saturated bioenergy buffers could provide both environmental protection and an additional source of income for farmers.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Modeling the mechanisms of conifer mortality under seawater exposure

Summary Relative sea level rise (SLR) increasingly impacts coastal ecosystems through the formation of ghost forests. To predict the future of coastal ecosystems under SLR and changing climate, it is important to understand the physiological mechanisms underlying coastal tree mortality and to integrate this knowledge into dynamic vegetation models. We incorporate the physiological effect of salinity and hypoxia in a dynamic vegetation model in the Earth system land model, and used the model to investigate the mechanisms of mortality of conifer forests on the west and east coast sites of USA, where trees experience different form of sea water exposure. Simulations suggest similar physiological mechanisms can result in different mortality patterns. At the east coast site that experienced severe increases in seawater exposure, trees loose photosynthetic capacity and roots rapidly, and both storage carbon and hydraulic conductance decrease significantly within a year. Over time, further consumption of storage carbon that leads to carbon starvation dominates mortality. At the west coast site that gradually exposed to seawater through SLR, hydraulic failure dominates mortality because root loss impacts on conductance are greater than the degree of storage carbon depletion. Measurements and modeling focused on understanding the physiological mechanisms of mortality is critical to reducing predictive uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Regional and Sexual Dimorphism in Murine Skeletal Responses to Osteocytic HIF Pathway Modulation

Hypoxia-inducible factors (HIFs) are transcription factors stabilized under hypoxia and degraded under normoxia by the E3 ubiquitin ligase Von Hippel-Lindau (Vhl). In osteocytes, the central orchestrators of bone homeostasis, Vhl and HIFs promote an osteoanabolic transcriptional program. In this study, we assessed unique impacts of osteocytic Vhl deletion versus individual HIF-α paralog stabilization on bone structure, mineralization, and mechanics as a function of sex and skeletal region. Microcomputed tomography revealed that osteocytic Vhl deletion robustly increased trabecular bone mass in both sexes and at both axial and appendicular regions, while HIF-2α accumulation increased femoral metaphyseal bone mass in both sexes while enhancing vertebral bone mass only in males. Vhl deletion paradoxically reduced mineral heterogeneity in male vertebrae, despite raising peak and mean calcium content in both sexes. In contrast, HIF-2α stabilization impaired cortical mineralization and mechanics, especially in females. While cortical mineralization was disrupted in both genotypes, Vhl deletion improved whole bone mechanical properties, suggesting that enhanced geometry and mass offset compromised tissue quality. HIF-1α stabilization exerted negligible impacts on any outcome.

Biological and medical sciences↗

Morpho-physiological and transcriptomic responses of field pennycress to waterlogging

Field pennycress (Thlaspi arvense) is a new biofuel winter annual crop with extreme cold hardiness and a short life cycle, enabling off-season integration into corn and soybean rotations across the U.S. Midwest. Pennycress fields are susceptible to winter snow melt and spring rainfall, leading to waterlogged soils. The objective of this research was to determine the extent to which waterlogging during the reproductive stage affected gene expression, morphology, physiology, recovery, and yield between two pennycress lines (SP32-10 and MN106). In a controlled environment, total pod number, shoot/root dry weight, and total seed count/weight were significantly reduced in SP32-10 in response to waterlogging, whereas primary branch number, shoot dry weight, and single seed weight were significantly reduced in MN106. This indicated waterlogging had a greater negative impact on seed yield in SP32-10 than MN106. We compared the transcriptomic response of SP32-10 and MN106 to determine the gene expression patterns underlying these different responses to seven days of waterlogging. The number of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between waterlogged and control roots were doubled in MN106 (3,424) compared to SP32-10 (1,767). Functional enrichment analysis of upregulated DEGs revealed Gene Ontology (GO) terms associated with hypoxia and decreased oxygen, with genes in these categories encoding proteins involved in alcoholic fermentation and glycolysis. Additionally, downregulated DEGs revealed GO terms associated with cell wall biogenesis and suberin biosynthesis, indicating suppressed growth and energy conservation. Interestingly, MN106 waterlogged roots exhibited significant stronger regulation of these genes than SP32-10, displaying a more robust transcriptomic response overall. Together, these results reveal the reconfiguration of cellular and metabolic processes in response to the severe energy crisis invoked by waterlogging in pennycress.

ERF-VII↗

A simple model of COVID-19 explains disease severity and the effect of treatments

Abstract Considerable effort has been made to better understand why some people suffer from severe COVID-19 while others remain asymptomatic. This has led to important clinical findings; people with severe COVID-19 generally experience persistently high levels of inflammation, slower viral load decay, display a dysregulated type-I interferon response, have less active natural killer cells and increased levels of neutrophil extracellular traps. How these findings are connected to the pathogenesis of COVID-19 remains unclear. We propose a mathematical model that sheds light on this issue by focusing on cells that trigger inflammation through molecular patterns: infected cells carrying pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs) and damaged cells producing damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs). The former signals the presence of pathogens while the latter signals danger such as hypoxia or lack of nutrients. Analyses show that SARS-CoV-2 infections can lead to a self-perpetuating feedback loop between DAMP expressing cells and inflammation, identifying the inability to quickly clear PAMPs and DAMPs as the main contributor to hyperinflammation. The model explains clinical findings and reveal conditions that can increase the likelihood of desired clinical outcome from treatment administration. In particular, the analysis suggest that antivirals need to be administered early during infection to have an impact on disease severity. The simplicity of the model and its high level of consistency with clinical findings motivate its use for the formulation of new treatment strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗