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Rates of Sea‐Level Rise Are Highly Sensitive to Ice Viscosity Parameters in Model Benchmarks
Glacier flow plays a major role in current and future rates of globally averaged sea-level rise. The viscosity of glacial ice, controlling the rate of flow, decreases as stress increases and is highly sensitive to the value of the stress exponent, $n$, in the constitutive equation for viscous flow. Glaciologists and climate modelers almost exclusively assume $n=3$ when modeling ice flow and projecting sea-level rise through forward modeling. However, recent work suggests that $n\approx 4$ better fits observations, prompting the question: How sensitive are projections of sea-level rise to the value of $n$? We use an established community ice flow model and standard benchmark experiments designed as an idealized representation of Pine Island Glacier, West Antarctica. While initializing an $n=3$ model to match observations of an $n=4$ ice sheet is possible, we find that incorrectly assuming $n=3$ when in fact $n=4$ dramatically underestimates rates of sea-level rise. The scale of this error grows nonlinearly with the magnitude of the climate forcing, acting to increase projection uncertainties. Additionally, we find that models often account for this stress-dependent rheology mismatch during model initialization in a way that masks this rheological effect in the short term while leaving model outputs vulnerable to larger biases in longer-term projections. Initializations to observations of Pine Island Glacier display similar rheology-mismatch fingerprints to our idealized example.
A Computational Icing Effects Study for a Three-Dimensional Wing: Comparison with Experimental Data and Investigation of Spanwise Variation
Steady-state solutions of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations were computed using the Colbalt flow solver for a constant-section, rectangular wing based on an extruded two-dimensional glaze ice shape. The one equation Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model was used. The results were compared with data obtained from a recent wind tunnel test. Computed results indicate that the steady RANS solutions do not accurately capture the recirculating region downstream of the ice accretion, even after a mesh refinement. The resulting predicted reattachment is farther downstream than indicated by the experimental data. Additionally, the solutions computed on a relatively coarse baseline mesh had detailed flow characteristics that were different from those computed on the refined mesh or the experimental data. Steady RANS solutions were also computed to investigate the effects of spanwise variation in the ice shape. The spanwise variation was obtained via a bleeding function that merged the ice shape with the clean wing using a sinusoidal spanwise variation. For these configurations, the results predicted for the extruded shape provided conservative estimates for the performance degradation of the wing. Additionally, the spanwise variation in the ice shape and the resulting differences in the flow fields did not significantly change the location of the primary reattachment.
Xanthos-Lake Model Source Code
This repository contains the source code for Xanthos-Lake, a lake-modeling extension of the Xanthos framework that introduces a coupled lake component comprising the Xanthos-Lake Snow and Ice Model (xLSIM) and the Xanthos-Lake Water Balance Model (xLWBM). xLSIM is a basin-aware machine-learning model for lake snow, ice, and thermal conditions. It predicts monthly lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice fraction from meteorological forcing and lake surface-area information. It uses sequence-based deep-learning architectures, including Transformer and hybrid Long Short-Term Memory–Transformer (LSTM–Transformer) models, together with seasonal encoding, multi-lake learning, physical masking, and basin-level cryospheric and non-cryospheric classification. The training workflow uses Ray for scalable execution and includes optional Ray Tune hyperparameter optimization. Model predictions, observations, diagnostics, and feature-importance outputs are written in NetCDF. xLWBM is the water-balance component of the new lake framework. It simulates monthly lake storage, surface area, evaporation, inflow, outflow, and lake–groundwater exchange. It combines physical water-balance equations with calibrated bathymetric relationships, weir-based outlet flow, modified Penman open-water evaporation, groundwater head relaxation, Penman–Monteith snow and ice sublimation, and snow, ice, and thermal conditions supplied by xLSIM. The model calibrates lake parameters against satellite-derived surface-area data, using evaporation-based calibration where surface-area data are unavailable, and supports small, medium, and large lake classes. For large lakes, xLWBM is integrated with the managed-routing workflow so that lake storage and outflow interact directly with downstream river routing and reservoir operations. Together, xLSIM and xLWBM provide Xanthos with a coupled lake-modeling capability. xLSIM supplies the snow, ice, and thermal conditions that affect lake evaporation and snow- and ice-related water exchanges, while xLWBM translates those conditions into dynamic lake storage, surface area, evaporation, and discharge. In return, xLWBM supplies evolving lake surface area to xLSIM. This coupling enables Xanthos to represent lakes as active hydrologic components within basin-scale water-availability and routing simulations.
Modeling ice streams: Derived quantities
The model addressed is a finite-element, map-plane, time-dependent, column-averaged continuity equation solver. The key to the fitting process involves the balance between ice motion dominated by flow in internal layers, and ice motion dominated by sliding at the bed. The fitting process involves an iterative process carried out in the time domain. Beginning with the portion of the ice sheet being modeled identical to the present ice sheet with uniform flow, sliding, and fraction specified at nominal values, the model monitors each nodal point surface elevation. As the calculated surface elevation deviates from the present surface, a correction proportional to the difference is applied to selected parameter sets. This correction is in a sense that would tend to improve the fit at the particular nodal point. A calculated surface elevation that was higher than the present surface would result in an increased fraction, which would tend to lower the calculated surface (if the flow or sliding constant were being used as the fitting parameter, they would be lowered to improve the fit). This process is allowed to proceed as long as is necessary for the situation to stabilize. Typically, this takes tens of thousands of model years, but the rate is dependent on other external forcings such as the accumulation rate. The primary result is that while a typical sample of ice streams from around Antarctica can be fitted quite reasonably using only the fraction of the velocity due to sliding, a different mechanism seems to be in play along the Siple Coast, where reduced sliding constants are required to attain a reasonable fit. Flow is more strongly channelized in this region, and velocities are, in general, higher than are observed in other regions. It is unlikely that the mechanism that controls the ice movement along the Siple Coast is exactly similar to the mechanisms in the other ice streams. The concept of deformable sediments and their contribution to the fast flow along the Siple Coast may have limited applicability to other Antarctic ice streams.
Navier-Stokes analysis of airfoils with leading edge ice accretions
A numerical analysis of the flowfield characteristics and the performance degradation of an airfoil with leading edge ice accretions was performed. The important fluid dynamic processes were identified and calculated. Among these were the leading edge separation bubble at low angles of attack, complete separation on the low pressure surface resulting in premature shell, drag rise due to the ice shape, and the effects of angle of attack on the separated flow field. Comparisons to experimental results were conducted to confirm these calculations. A computer code which solves the Navier-Stokes equations in two dimensions, ARC2D, was used to perform the calculations. A Modified Mixing Length turbulence model was developed to produce grids for several ice shape and airfoil combinations. Results indicate that the ability to predict overall performance characteristics, such as lift and drag, at low angles of attack is excellent. Transition location is important for accurately determining separation bubble shape. Details of the flowfield in and downstream of the separated regions requires some modifications. Calculations for the stalled airfoil indicate periodic shedding of vorticity that was generated aft of the ice accretion. Time averaged pressure values produce results which compare favorably with experimental information. A turbulence model which accounts for the history effects in the flow may be justified.
Troughs on Martian Ice Sheets: Analysis of Their Closure and Mass Balance
At the Copenhagen workshop on Martian polar processes, Ralf Greve commented that the flow regime surrounding scarps and troughs of the Martian polar ice sheets cannot be modeled using traditional "plan view" ice-sheet models. Such models are inadequate because they typically use reduced equations that embody certain simplifications applicable only to terrestrial ice sheets where the upper ice sheet surface is smooth. In response to this suggestion, we have constructed a 2-dimensional, time dependent "side view" (two spatial dimensions: one horizontal, one vertical) model of scarp closure that is designed to overcome the difficulties described by Greve. The purpose of the model is to evaluate the scales of stress variation and styles of flow closure so as to estimate errors that may be encountered by "plan view" models. We show that there may be avenues whereby the complications associated with scarp closure can be overcome in "plan view" models through appropriate parameterizations of 3-dimensional effects. Following this, we apply the flow model to simulate the evolution of a typical scarp on the North Polar Cap of Mars. Our simulations investigate: (a) the role of "radiation trapping" (see our companion abstract) in creating and maintaining "spiral-like" scarps on the ice sheet, (b) the consequences of different flowlaws and ice compositions on scarp evolution and, in particular, scarp age, and (c) the role of dust and debris in scarp evolution.
Detached-Eddy Simulations of Separated Flow Around Wings With Ice Accretions: Year One Report
A computational investigation was performed to assess the effectiveness of Detached-Eddy Simulation (DES) as a tool for predicting icing effects. The AVUS code, a public domain flow solver, was employed to compute solutions for an iced wing configuration using DES and steady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation methodologies. The configuration was an extruded GLC305/944-ice shape section with a rectangular planform. The model was mounted between two walls so no tip effects were considered. The numerical results were validated by comparison with experimental data for the same configuration. The time-averaged DES computations showed some improvement in lift and drag results near stall when compared to steady RANS results. However, comparisons of the flow field details did not show the level of agreement suggested by the integrated quantities. Based on our results, we believe that DES may prove useful in a limited sense to provide analysis of iced wing configurations when there is significant flow separation, e.g., near stall, where steady RANS computations are demonstrably ineffective. However, more validation is needed to determine what role DES can play as part of an overall icing effects prediction strategy. We conclude the report with an assessment of existing computational tools for application to the iced wing problem and a discussion of issues that merit further study.
Rheology of Diabase: Implications for Tectonics on Venus and Mars
Two important goals of our experimental investigation of the rheological behavior of diabase rocks were: (1) to determine flow laws describing their creep behavior over wide ranges of temperature, stress and strain rate and (2) to develop an understanding of the physical mechanisms by which these rocks flow under laboratory conditions. With this basis, a primary objective then was to construct constitutive equations that can be used to extrapolate from laboratory to planetary conditions. We specifically studied the rheological properties of both natural rock samples and synthetic aggregates. The former provided constraints for geologic systems, while the latter defined the relative contributions of the constituent mineral phases and avoided the influence of glass/melt found in natural samples. In addition, partially molten samples of crustal rock composition were deformed in shear to large strains (greater than 200%) important in crustal environments. The results of this research yielded essential rheological properties essential for models of crustal deformation on terrestrial planets, specifically Venus and Mars, as well as on the geodynamical evolution of these planets. Over the past three years, we also completed our investigation of the creep behavior of water ice with applications to the glaciers, ice sheets and icy satellites. Constitutive equations were determined that describe flow over a wide ranged of stress, strain rate, grain size and temperature. In the case of ice, three creep regimes were delineate. Extrapolation demonstrates that dislocation glide and grain boundary sliding processes dominate flow in ice I under planetary conditions and that diffusion creep is not an important deformation mechanism either in the laboratory or on icy satellites. These results have already been incorporated by other investigators into models describing, for example, the thickness and stability of the ice shell on Europa and to unravel long-standing discrepancies between field observations on glaciers and laboratory results.
HdsaLib
HdsaLib performs hyper-differential sensitivity analysis in optimization problems that are constrained by partial differential equation problems. The software aids researchers in understanding the impact of uncertainties on their optimization models. The tool has been applied for use in ice sheet modeling, fluid flow modeling, atmospheric tracer transport modeling, and subsurface flow modeling. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
Structure and evolution of Uranus and Neptune
Three-layer interior models of Uranus and Neptune with central rocky cores, mantles of water, methane, and ammonia (the 'ices'), and outer envelopes primarily composed of hydrogen and helium are presented. The models incorporate a new H2O equation of state based on experimental data which is considerably 'softer' than previous H2O equations of state. Corrections for interior temperatures approximately 5000 K are included in the models, and the thermal evolution of both planets is investigated using recent heat flow measurements. It is found that the evolutionary considerations are consistent with gravitational field data in supporting models with approximately solar abundances of 'ice' and 'rock'. Evolutionary considerations indicate that initial temperatures and luminosities for Uranus and Neptune were not substantially higher than the present value. Both planets apparently have relatively small approximately 1-2 earth masses) hydrogen-helium envelopes, with Neptune's envelope smaller than Uranus'. A monotonic trend is evident among the Jovian planets: all have central rock-ice cores of approximately 15 earth masses, but with hydrogen-helium envelopes which decrease in mass from Jupiter to Saturn to Uranus to Neptune.
A scheme for parameterizing ice-cloud water content in general circulation models
The optical properties of ice clouds are a primary issue for climate and climate change. Evaluating these optical properties in three-dimensional models for studying climate will require a method to calculate the ice water content of such clouds. A procedure is developed to parameterize ice water content as a function of large-scale meteorological characteristics for use in circulation models in which the ice water content is not calculated by means of a three-dimensional prognostic equation for condensed water. The technique identifies large-scale flows in which ice clouds exist and calculates their ice water content by reconstructing the trajectory associated with cloud formation. As the cloud forms, its ice content changes both by deposition of ice from water vapor and by ice removal by sedimentation. The sedimentation process is found to modify significantly the ice water content expected from deposition alone. Ice water contents predicted by the parameterization are compared with aircraft observations collected in the middle latitudes and the tropics, and show reasonable agreement over four orders-of-magnitude of ice water content. A parameterization for the sublimation of ice crystals settling into ice-subsaturated environments is also presented.
Influence of the vapor flux on temperature, density, and abundance distributions in a multicomponent, porous, icy body
We calculated the vapor flux of the icy components in the surface layer of a porous, short-period, Jupiter-class comet, in order to investigate the relationship of the observed relative molecular abundances in the coma with those in the nucleus. The model assumes a body containing one major ice component (H20) and up to three minor components of higher volatility (e.g., CO, CO2, CH3OH). The body's porous structure is modeled as a bundle of tubes with a given tortuosity and initially a constant pore diameter. The mass and energy equations for the different volatiles are solved simultaneously under appropiate boundary conditions. Heat is conducted by the matrix and carried by the vapors. The one-dimensional model includes radially inward and outward flowing vapor within the body, complete depletion of less volatile ices in outer layers, and recondensation of vapor in deeper, coller layers. As a result, we obtain the temperature and abundance distribution in the nucleus and the gas flux into the interior and into the coma for each of the volatiles at various positions in the orbit. The ratio of the gas flux of minor volatiles to that of H2) in the coma varies by several orders of magnitude throughout the orbit. Thus, the relative abundances of species observed in the coma are in most cases not the same as those in the nucleus. Results also indicate that it will be impossible to determine the relative abundances of ices more volatile than water from samples taken a few meters below the surface during a comet rendezvous mission. We made calculations for a wide range of different parameters, such as porosity, pore radius, and thermal conductivity of the matrix. To introduce the model we present typical results for a dust-free comet.
Modeling techniques for transonic airfoils
In the present comparative study of computer codes for the modeling of two-dimensional, single element airfoil sections for various section geometry classes, two of the codes use vortex singularities methods to obtain the potential flow solution while the remainder solve the full inviscid potential flow equations by means of finite differencing techniques that allow results to be obtained for transonic flow about an airfoil which includes weak shocks. Computational results are presented for a symmetrical airfoil section, a conventional section, and a supercritical one. Icing condition applications of the models are noted. The model codes' range of applicability and agreement with each other and experimental results, as well as their computer run times and memory requirements, are noted.
Overview of Icing Physics Relevant to Scaling
An understanding of icing physics is required for the development of both scaling methods and ice-accretion prediction codes. This paper gives an overview of our present understanding of the important physical processes and the associated similarity parameters that determine the shape of Appendix C ice accretions. For many years it has been recognized that ice accretion processes depend on flow effects over the model, on droplet trajectories, on the rate of water collection and time of exposure, and, for glaze ice, on a heat balance. For scaling applications, equations describing these events have been based on analyses at the stagnation line of the model and have resulted in the identification of several non-dimensional similarity parameters. The parameters include the modified inertia parameter of the water drop, the accumulation parameter and the freezing fraction. Other parameters dealing with the leading edge heat balance have also been used for convenience. By equating scale expressions for these parameters to the values to be simulated a set of equations is produced which can be solved for the scale test conditions. Studies in the past few years have shown that at least one parameter in addition to those mentioned above is needed to describe surface-water effects, and some of the traditional parameters may not be as significant as once thought. Insight into the importance of each parameter, and the physical processes it represents, can be made by viewing whether ice shapes change, and the extent of the change, when each parameter is varied. Experimental evidence is presented to establish the importance of each of the traditionally used parameters and to identify the possible form of a new similarity parameter to be used for scaling.
Ice Accretion Modeling using an Eulerian Approach for Droplet Impingement
A three-dimensional Eulerian analysis has been developed for modeling droplet impingement on lifting bodes. The Eulerian model solves the conservation equations of mass and momentum to obtain the droplet flow field properties on the same mesh used in CFD simulations. For complex configurations such as a full rotorcraft, the Eulerian approach is more efficient because the Lagrangian approach would require a significant amount of seeding for accurate estimates of collection efficiency. Simulations are done for various benchmark cases such as NACA0012 airfoil, MS317 airfoil and oscillating SC2110 airfoil to illustrate its use. The present results are compared with results from the Lagrangian approach used in an industry standard analysis called LEWICE.
Numerical model of a two-dimensional, non-plane transient magnetohydrodynamic flow
The equations describing two-dimensional three-component magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) transient flows are formulated for a system of spherical coordinates. With the numerical code based on Implicit Continuous Fluid Eulerian (ICE) scheme, MHD flows resulting from a sudden energy release in a stratified medium are examined. Because of the inclusion of out-of-plane components of velocity and magnetic fields, MHD transverse waves are observed in addition to fast, slow and entropy waves. Numerical results for compressible MHD shocks are found in satisfactory agreement with the theoretical predictions.